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22 Boardroom
Vanessa Sochat
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Medicare Overview
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Four Main Questions
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Medicare Is Eating Up The Economy
Total Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
70 76 82 88 94 00 06 12 18 24 30
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What Is Feeding This Spending Monster?
Demographics
Costs of technology
Inefficiencies
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Enrollment Is Increasing
Total Medicare Enrollment (Mil)
80
70
60
1.74% Annualized Growth Rate
50
40
30
20
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30
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Less People Are Dying, and The Birth
Rate Is Decreasing
Growth of Birth and Death Rates (%)
3
Growth in Birth Rates
2 Growth in Death Rates
-1
-2
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
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Total Costs Per Capita
Medicare Cost Per Capita ($)
20,000
Annualized Spending/
16,000 Capita Growth Rate
Estimates
12,000 Low 5.13%
Intermediate 7.31%
8,000
High 9.46%
250
200
150
100
50
0
70 80 90 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
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We Are Depleting Our Funds
Income and Expenditures of Medicare
1,000
MEDICARE COSTS (billions) Income (billions)
800 Today 2009 2015 Expenditures (billions)
Total Income 446.7 561.83 780.1
HI 210.2 245.7 320.3 Assets at End of Year (billions)
600 SMI 236.5 316.13 459.8
Total Expenditures 432.9 537.5 818.2
HI 200.5 242.2 362.5
400 SMI 232.4 295.3 455.7
Balance Total 13.8 24.33 38.1
200 HI
SMI
9.7 3.5 42.2
4.1 20.83 4.1
-200
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
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Is The Government Proactive? A Quiz
Looking at 12 attempts to reduce spending from
1965 to 2006:
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What Do We See In The Crystal Ball?
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What Can We Rule Out?
Corrective action in 2008
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What Can We Rule In?
Higher taxes/premiums
25
Pharmaceutical vs S&P 500 Net Profit Margins
Average Pharm Net Margin
20 Average S&P 500 Net Margin
15
10
0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
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Who Will Be In Office?
It doesn’t really matter
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