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19th!
blog: http://500hats.typepad.com/
website: http://www.500hats.com/
slides: http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats/
Panel o’ PIRATES!
Dave McClure, 500 Hats (moderator)
Yo-ho-ho, Yo-ho-ho!
AARRR!
BOOTY!
Startup Metrics for Pirates:
5 Steps to Web 2.0 Booty!
Acquisition: users come to site from various channels
Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience
Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times
Referral: users like product enough to refer others
Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior
AARRR!
Customer Lifecycle & Conversion Behavior
SEO Campaigns,
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Network Dev
s Blogs Affiliate
Apps & s Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
1. ACQUISITION Campaigns,
Domain Contests
s
L
R RA
2. . R EFE
Ac Homepage / 4
Landing Page
vati
Emails &
Product widgets
tio
Feature
n
5.
Ads, Lead Gen, Biz Dev
Re
Subscriptions,
etc
ve
nu
Website.com e$
$$
Q: Business
Model?
“Business Model” can be one of the following:
– Get Users (= Acquisition, Referral)
– Drive Usage (= Activation, Retention)
– Make Money (= Revenue*)
* ideally profitable revenue
Low-Hanging Fruit:
1) Blogs, 2) SEO/SEM, 3) Landing Pages, 4) Automated Emails
Customer Lifecycle / Conversion Behavior
SEO Campaigns,
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Network Dev
s Blogs Affiliate
Apps & s Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
Domain
s
Marketing Channels:
• largest-volume (#)
• lowest-cost ($)
• best-performing (%)
Website.com
Customer Lifecycle / Conversion
Behavior
Campaigns,
SEO
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Network Dev
s Blogs Affiliate Activation
s
Apps &
Email
Direct, Criteria:
Widgets Tel, TV
1. ACQUISITION • 10-30+ seconds
Domain
s
• 2-3+ page views
• 3-5+ clicks
2.
Homepage /
Ac
• 1 key feature
Landing Page
tiv usage
ati
Product do LOTS of landing
Feature
on
page tests & A/B tests
s –
make lots of dumb
guesses & iterate
FAST
Website.com
Customer Lifecycle / Conversion Behavior
SEO Campaigns,
SEM PR Contests Biz Dev
Social
Network
s Blogs Affiliate
Apps & s Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
1. ACQUISITION
Domains
Automated emails are simple, easy retention
feature (but don’t overdo it)
• lifecycle emails @ +3, +7, +30d
• status emails weekly/monthly
• event-based emails as they occur Homepage / Landing Page
2.
Act
• but: make it easy to unsubscribe
iv
ati
Product
on
Features
Website.com
Customer Lifecycle / Conversion
Behavior
Campaigns,
SEO
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Network Dev
s Blogs Affiliate
Apps & s Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
1. ACQUISITION
Domain Campaigns,
s Contests
AL
2. EFERR
Ac Homepage /
4. R
Landing Page
vati
Emails &
Product
tio
widgets
Feature
n
Encourage users to
refer *after* they have
Website.com “happy” user experience;
avg score >= 8 out of 10
Customer Lifecycle / Conversion
Behavior
Campaigns,
SEO
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Network Dev
s Blogs Affiliate
Apps & s Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
1. ACQUISITION
Domain Campaigns,
s Contests
AL
2. Homepage / EFERR
Ac . R
tiv Landing Page 4
ati
Product Emails &
widgets
Feature
on
5.
Ads, Lead Gen, Biz Dev
Re
Subscriptions,
etc
This is the part *you* ve
nu
have to figure out… Website.com e$
I don’t know jack about
your business
$$
Example Conversion Metrics
(note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary.)
QuickTimeª and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Marketing Initiative Feb ‘07
Goal: 2,000 New Registrants a Day
38
New Process – Automate almost everything
39
Change #1: Used MBL Widget to discover Blog URL
40
Change #2: Use Blog URL to inspect blog
42
Validation
Signup Time 15m -> ~2m
Users Comments
“Easy to install”
“Took me only a few minutes”
“You’re freaking me out, how
did you get my blog URL.”
43 http://ouriel.typepad.com/myblog/2007/08/execution-is--1.html
AARRRgenda
Before After
AARRRgenda
40
Facebook
platform
30 launch
20
10 (2)
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Months (1)
Source: eBay Investor Presentation, RockYou
• eBay starts Q2 98, PayPal starts Q1’00, Yahoo! starts Q1’95, AOL starts Q1’92, Facebook starts Q4’04, and RockYou Starts Q4’05
• Facebook data represents active users, which was disclosed on 12/05 and 12/06. Undisclosed active user data is extrapolated by applying an average active user penetration to
global Unique Visitors (per comScore Media Metrix)
Referral traffic is key
for viral growth
Primary sources of referral
traffic
Install flow
Engagement flow
Install flow example for Bumper
Sticker
Engagement flow example
for Friends for Sale
Metrics for viral
loop
Call to action to
User invite friends x = invited
friends
Yes
Accept?
y% = accept rate
No
x * y > 1 gives you viral growth!
Typical viral numbers
Install flow
x = 5 (friends invited on average)
y = 22% (acceptance rate for invites)
Viral factor = 5 * 0.22 = 1.1 VIRAL!!!
Engagement flow
x = 20 (friends invited on average)
y = 6% (acceptance rate for invites)
Viral factor = 20 * 0.6 = 1.2 VIRAL!!!
Use multiple flows and channels
Install flow
x=5
y = 10%
Viral factor = 5 * 0.1 = 0.5
0.5 + 0.3 + 0.3 = 1.1
Engagement flow, invite channel
x = 3 (invites) VIRAL!!!
y = 10% (acceptance rate for
invites)
Viral factor = 3 * 0.1 = 0.3
Decay
invite rate decreases as you saturate
acceptance rate decreases as you saturate
engagement tends to decay
continuous improvement required!
AARRR!
Any Questions,
Ye Scurvy Dogs?
Additional References:
• “Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion”, Robert Cialdini (book)
• “Putting the Fun in Functional”, Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso)
• “Futuristic Play”, Andrew Chen (blog)
• “Don’t Make Me Think”, Steve Krug (book)
• “A Theory of Fun”, Raph Koster (book, website)