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Primavera Risk Analysis

Wesley Gillette Senior Product Manager

Agenda

Value of Project Risk Analysis Solution Overview Summary

2009 Oracle Corporation

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Value of Risk Analysis

Who needs Risk Analysis?

Executives/Program Managers
Need to assess bid viability Need to assess risk during project selection

Project Managers/Project Controls

Need to understand the impact of risk on the project schedule and cost Need to perform a cost/benefit analysis on mitigation plans Need to satisfy a contractual/regulatory requirement for risk analysis

2009 Oracle Corporation

Benefits of Effective Risk Analysis

Increased confidence in bids & project selection Increased awareness of project assumptions Increased project success by enabling better project management

2009 Oracle Corporation

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Solution Overview

Primavera Risk Analysis

Methodology based risk analysis Schedule Quality Assessment Comprehensive Risk Modeling Qualitative and quantitative Risk Register Standard Analysis Reports Scenario Comparison Reports Risk Adjusted Schedule and Cash flow Report

2009 Oracle Corporation

Risk Analysis Methodology

Risk Planning Risk Reporting Risk Identification

Risk Response

Risk Assessment

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11, APM PRAM Guide, AS/NZ S4360

2009 Oracle Corporation

Schedule Quality Assessment

A poor quality schedule affects the quality and reliability of the risk analysis

Verify schedule quality by checking for scheduling best practices

Select the checks to run against the schedule

2009 Oracle Corporation

Schedule Quality Assessment

Creates an interactive report with links to drill down into the detail

2009 Oracle Corporation

Risk Modeling

Estimate Uncertainty
Distributions (e.g. 3pt estimate) User defined fields Templates

Risk Events
Discrete events which may impact the project schedule Modeled with a probability and impact

2009 Oracle Corporation

Appling Risk Uncertainty to Schedule

Apply estimate uncertainty consistently through the use of templates

Can assess uncertainty at a summary level

Can note the assumptions & rationale supporting the assessment

2009 Oracle Corporation

Building Risk Register Qualitative Assessment

Prilonosti in nevarnosti

Izdelava in kvalitativna ocena tveganj

2009 Oracle Corporation

Building Risk Register Quantitative Assessment

Then assess risks quantitatively

2009 Oracle Corporation

Building Risk Register Linking Risks to Schedule

Kvalitativna ocena tveganj

Mapiranje vpliva tveganj na aktivnosti in celoten plan

2009 Oracle Corporation

Building Scenarios & Running the Analysis

Create risk scenarios

Run the analysis and view the reports

2009 Oracle Corporation

Running the Analysis

Monte Carlo simulation

Random simulation of probable outcomes Not a guarantee of what will happen

Sensitivity Analysis
Identifies what is likely to drive the project schedule

2009 Oracle Corporation

Results Analyzing Contingency

Shows probability of success and contingency needed

View results for the entire project or selected WBS or activity See the impact of risk on project & activity dates and cost

2009 Oracle Corporation

Results Project Drivers

Criticality Index shows how often activities are on the critical path

Alternate critical path activities

2009 Oracle Corporation

Results Project Drivers

Displays schedule & cost drivers (sensitivity analysis)

Drivers can be schedule uncertainty or risk events

2009 Oracle Corporation

Evaluating Risk Response Plans

Understand pre-response results Develop Risk Response plan Analyze Cost/Benefit analysis

Track and report status

2009 Oracle Corporation

Risk Register Mitigation Planning

Pre-Mitigation: Current assessment of the risk

Mitigation: What can be done to reduce the impact the risk

Post-Mitigation: Assessment of the risk after mitigation

2009 Oracle Corporation

Results Updated Contingency

Evaluate the change in contingency from premitigated scenario

2009 Oracle Corporation

Results Scenario Comparison

Primerjava uinkov tveganj in uinkov zmanjevanja tveganj

2009 Oracle Corporation

Results Probabilistic Cash Flow

Shows the impact of uncertainty and risks on cash flow and resources

Probabilistic spend curves

Shows the difference between what was planned and what is probable

2009 Oracle Corporation

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Results Risk Adjusted Schedule

Compare deterministic schedule vs. a probabilistic schedule (e.g. P50 & P80)

2009 Oracle Corporation

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Summary

2009 Oracle Corporation

Primavera Risk Analysis

Methodology based risk analysis Schedule Quality Assessment Comprehensive Risk Modeling Qualitative and quantitative Risk Register Standard Analysis Reports Scenario Comparison Reports Risk Adjusted Schedule and Cash flow Report

2009 Oracle Corporation

Benefits of Effective Risk Analysis

Increased confidence in bids & project selection

Validation of schedule Appropriate contingency at project level (not activity level)

Increased awareness of project assumptions

Realistic project schedule Common understanding of project schedule and risks

Increased project success by enabling better project management

Understanding of project drivers Validate risk response plans

2009 Oracle Corporation