Presented to-SIMRIT MANN

5011-JYOTSNA PATEL 5012-NILESH PATEL 5013-RIDDHI PATEL 5015-HARDIK PORIYA 5016-SUPRIYA PUJARI 5017-ADITIYA RAI 5018-SEEMA RAJPUROHIT 5019-GARIMA RAMBIYA 5020-SONAL RAMOLIYA

Forecasting involves predicting the future. It helps in projection of the volume or number of units that will be required to be produced, shipped or sold. The forecasting process affects every area of logistics in some way or the others. i.e is conducting or developing forecast providing information to be used in forecasting or receiving forecasting results and implementing necessary actions.

DEPENDENT DEMAND VERICAL DEPENDENT DEMAND - IT IS A CHARACTERISED BY SEQUENCE OF PURCAHSING AND MANUFACTURING. HORIZONTAL DEPENDENT DEMAND IT OCCURS IN A SITUATION WHERE AN ATTACHMENT, PROMTION ITEM IS INCLUDED WITH EACH ITEM SHIPPED. INDEPENDENT DEMAND THEY ARE THOSE DEMANDS THAT ARE NOT RELATED TO THE DEMAND FOR ANOTHER ITEM.

Forecast Components
Base Demand

Seasonal factors

Trends Forecast components Cyclic factors

Promotions

Irregular Quantities

Base Demand- It is based on average demand over an extended period of time. Seasonal Component- It is generally characterized by upward and downward movement in demand pattern usually on annual basis. Trend Component- It is a long range general movement in periodic sales over an extended period of time. Bt+1=bt x 1

Cyclic Component- It swings in demand pattern lasting more than a year. Promotional Component- Demand swings initiated by the firms marketing activities such as advertising, schemes, promotions constitutes the promotional component. Irregular Component- It includes random or unpredictable quantities that do not fit within the other categories and hence are impossible to predict.

Techniques

Quantitative / Statistical Methods

Qualitative / Judgmental Methods

Quantitative methods It involves time series techniques. Time series they are statistical methods using historical sales data that contain relatively clear and stable relationship and trends.

Moving average- Moving average forecasting uses an average of most recent periods sales. Exponential smoothing analyses- it is based on the principle that the most recent values is the most important for predicting the future value. Y1 t+1 = ayt + (1-a)Y1 t
REGRESSION analyses- It is to collect the past available data and analyse them for the future strategies Y=a+bx+ui

Qualitative Forecasting

Delphi- By OLAF HELMER sponsored by US Air Force in 1950s. The method is generally used for long term forecasting Nominal Group technique- developed by Andrew Van de Ven a Wharton professor is a structured problem solving and decision making method. Survey- it involves gathering these data from a variety of potential customers, typically through interviews, telephone based service and written service. Market Research- In market testing focus groups of potential customers are assembled and tested for their response to products.

Operations Management----By ICFAI Operations Management-An integrated goods and services approach----By Evans/Collier Logistics and Supply Chain Management---By Vinay Pandit