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# Product Quality Summit

## January 24-28, 2005

INTRODUCTION TO
WEIBULL ANALYSIS
January 2007

2
Introduction To Weibull Distribution
Weibull And Weibull Parameters
Weibull Probability Plots
Incomplete Data
Time Methods And Data Dry Up
Weibull Estimation Methods
Weibull Process Flow
Determining A Significant Difference
3
Learning Objectives
Be able to fit a Weibull distribution to a set of data.
Predict failures in a population based on Weibull.
Interpret what the Weibull parameter values tell you
Understand how to handle incomplete data, which time
method to use and when to use data dryup.
Understand how to select and when to use each
Weibull estimation method.
Uncertainties.
Be able to determine if one population failure rate is
statistically different than another.
4
Whats In It For You
Be able to predict failure rate with extremely
small sample sizes.
Identify possible root causes very quickly.
Detecting a difference between distributions
with a given confidence level.
Become more proficient with another statistical
distribution with wide applicability.

5
Waloddi Weibull
1887- 1979
He invented the Weibull distribution
in 1937. He delivered a paper in 1951
in the United States on the distribution
and included 7 examples on its use.
These examples ranged from strength of
steel to height of adult males in the
British Isles.

The Weibull distribution is by far the
world's most popular statistical model
for life data. It is also used in many other
applications, such as weather
forecasting and fitting data of all kinds.
It may be employed for engineering
analysis with smaller sample sizes than
any other statistical distribution.
Waloddi Weibull
6
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0 20 40 60
X value
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3 Ways to View a Statistical Distribution
1. Probability Density Function (PDF)
Total Area
under PDF curve
equals 1.0
7
3 Ways to View a Statistical Distribution
2. Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
CDF is the
Integral of the
PDF
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 20 40 60
X value
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3 Ways to View a Statistical Distribution
3. Failure Rate (or Hazard Function)
Failure Rate is the
PDF/(1-CDF)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0 20 40 60
X value
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PDF, CDF, &
Hazard Function
are 3 ways to
view the same
thing
9
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|

(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
| |
u u u
|
0
0
1
0
0
o
X -
X - t
X -
X - t
X -
f(t) Exp
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
= =
}
|
u
0
0
T
X
X -
X - t
- 1 dt f(t) F(t)
0
Exp
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
= =
1
0
0
o
X -
X - t
X - F(t) - 1
f(t)
h(t)
|
u u
|
|
u
|
|
.
|

\
|
= =
}
0
0
T
X
X -
X - t
dt h(t) H(t)
0
Cumulative
Distribution
Function
(like Weibull fit)
Probability
Density
Function
Failure Rate or
Hazard Function
(like DRF fit)
Cumulative
Hazard
Function
Equations that Define the Failure Data
10
Theta
Characteristic Life

Beta
Shape (slope) Parameter
63.2%
Theta and Beta
11
Theta: In terms of y=mx+b, Theta is like b where the
line crosses the y-axis, but Theta is the hours (or miles)
where the best fit line crosses the 63.2 percentile.

Beta: Same as slope (rise over run) just like m in
y=mx+b.
Theta and Beta
12
Weibull Parameters Characteristic Life
Characteristic Parameter (u = Theta)
u is the life for 63.2% of the population (in terms of
number of hours, cycles, mileage or strength, etc.)

u is the pivot point for the distribution and remains so
for any value or change in |
It is analogous to the mean in a Normal distribution
( ) | | 0.632 1 - 1
t
- 1 CDF = =
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
|
|
u
Exp Exp
13
Weibull Parameters Shape (or Slope)
Shape Parameter (| = Beta)
| describes the shape of the distribution and in turn
indicates the type of problems inherent in the population

| < 1 means there is a decreasing failure rate
(declining DRF vs operating hours)
| = 1 means there is a constant failure rate
(constant DRF vs operating hours)
| > 1 means there is an increasing failure rate
(increasing DRF vs operating hours)
14
Bathtub Curve
| < 1
Decreasing Failure Rate

| = 1
Constant Failure Rate

| > 1
Increasing Failure Rate

Useful Life
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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.
Useful Life
Wear
Out
0 20 201 1000
VEHR
Operating Hours
Infant
Mortality
21 200
mDRF = Avg Of [VEHR + DRF1 + DRF2]
DRF
1
DRF
2
DRF
3 & 4 & 5
| mDRF Range |
Bathtub Curve
(
F
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x

h
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)

16
Product VEHR DRF1 DRF2 DRF3 DRF4 DRF5
All Product Not Listed Below (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-1000 1001-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000
Medium Duty Truck Engines (Miles) 0-500 501-5000 5001-25000 25001-50000 50001-125000 125001-250000
Heavy Duty Truck Engines (Miles) 0-1000 1001-10000 10001-50000
50001-
100000 100001-250000 250001-500000
Standby Gensets (Hours) 0-10 11-100 101-300 301-600 601-1500 1501-3000
BCP (Hours) 0-10 11-100 101-500 501-1000 1001-2500 2501-5000
Marine Engines(Pleasure)(Hours) 0-20 21-100 101-500 501-1000 1001-2500 2501-5000
Agriclture Product (Hours) 0-20 21-100 101-500 501-1000 1001-2500 2501-5000
Utility Compactors(CB214-335)(Hours) 0-20 21-100 101-500 501-1000 1001-2500 2501-5000
BCP Work Tools (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-1000 1001-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000
All Other Commercial Engines (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-1000 1001-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000
Off-Highway Tractors(768-776)(Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
Small Off-Highway Trucks (769-775)(Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
Wheel Loader(988-992) (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
Wheel Dozers(834-854)(Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
Motor Grader 14H (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
Tractor Scrapers(631-657) (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
Large Track Tractor (D8-D9) (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
Large Excavators (345-385) (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
Shovels (5080-5090) (Hours) 0-20 21-200 201-2000 2001-5000 5001-10000 10001-20000
| mDRF Range |
DRF Range Definitions
17
0
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0.02
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0.04
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0.1
0.11
0.12
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50 100 150 200 250 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10,000 12,000
Life
0.02 DRF
6,000 Hr Life
0.06 DRF
12,000 Hr Life
Reliability vs. Durability Bathtub Curves
18
| < 1.0
Infant Mortality
| Slope Examples
(applicable for Weibayes Method)
Leaks, loose bolts, quality & assembly problems,

Chance failures (human & maintenance errors,
foreign object damage, multi-part system or
multiple failure modes)

Design flaws, fatigue, pitting, spalling, corrosion,
erosion, wear, excessive cycles

Material brittle/worn out, severe pitting/corrosion,
design obsolescence, numerous critical parts
failing
| ~ 1.0
Random
| ~ 1-4
Wear out
| > 4
Old age
19
Classic Mature Weibull Plot
Wearout ( Slope > 1)
Useful Life ( Slope = 1)
Infant Mortality
( Slope < 1)
Three failure modes
potentially evident
on this part
20
Weibull Distribution
It has the ability to fit different distributions, i.e.,
Normal, Lognormal and others

| = 1.0: identical to the exponential distribution
| = 2.0: identical to the Rayleigh distribution
| = 2.5: approximates the lognormal distribution
| = 3.6: approximates the normal distribution
| = 5.0: approximates the peaked normal distribution

21
0
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0.0008
0.001
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Beta = 1 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
Baseline
When Beta = 1, the Failure Rate is Constant
22
Beta = 2 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
0
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.001
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0.0000
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0.0020
0.0030
0.0040
0.0050
0.0060
0.0070
0.0080
0.0090
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
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When Beta > 1, the Failure Rate continually increases
23
Beta = 3 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
0
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.001
0.0012
0.0014
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
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The Failure Rate is only linear if Beta = 1 or Beta = 2
24
Beta = 5 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
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0.0015
0.002
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0.0000
0.2000
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0.6000
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1.0000
1.2000
1.4000
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The larger Beta, the narrower the life variation
25
0
0.0002
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0.0006
0.0008
0.001
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0.0000
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0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.0010
0.0012
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Beta = 1 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
Baseline
26
Beta = 0.5 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
0
0.0005
0.001
0.0015
0.002
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0.0000
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0.0020
0.0025
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When Beta < 1, the Failure Rate continually decreases.
27
Beta = 0.2 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
0
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.001
0.0012
0.0014
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
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0.0010
0.0015
0.0020
0.0025
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0.0
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The smaller Beta, the wider the life variation.
28
0
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0.0006
0.0008
0.001
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0.0000
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.0010
0.0012
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
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3.0
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4.0
4.5
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Beta = 1 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
Baseline
29
Beta = 1 Theta = 10,000 Xo = 0
0
0.00002
0.00004
0.00006
0.00008
0.0001
0.00012
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
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0.00000
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0.00004
0.00006
0.00008
0.00010
0.00012
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c
t
i
o
n
)
h
(
t
)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

H
a
z
a
r
d

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
H
(
t
)
For the same Beta, increasing Theta increases the variation
30
Weibull Parameters - Location
Location Parameter X
0

Optional (for 3 Parameter Weibull onlyrarely used)

X
0
is used only when the life of a product starts at
some designated number of hours of operation such
as with fatigue related data.

It is not used when the starting point is zero and
greatly simplifies the use of Weibull distribution.

31
0
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.001
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

D
e
n
s
i
t
y

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
P
D
F
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
C
D
F
0.0000
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.0010
0.0012
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
F
a
i
l
u
r
e

R
a
t
e

(
o
r

H
a
z
a
r
d

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
)
h
(
t
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

H
a
z
a
r
d

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
H
(
t
)
Beta = 1 Theta = 1000 Xo = 0
Baseline
32
Beta = 1 Theta = 2000 Xo = 1000
0
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.001
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

D
e
n
s
i
t
y

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
P
D
F
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
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D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
C
D
F
0.0000
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.0010
0.0012
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
F
a
i
l
u
r
e

R
a
t
e

(
o
r

H
a
z
a
r
d

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
)
h
(
t
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

H
a
z
a
r
d

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
H
(
t
)
Everything is zero for T < Xo
33
Probability Plot = CDF
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 20 40 60
X value
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

F
u
n
t
i
o
n
Normal Probability Plot
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0 20 40 60
S
t
d
e
v

f
r
o
m

t
h
e

M
e
a
n
Linear Probability Plot
A nonlinear transformation is used to linearize the CDF
34
Plot Axis Scales
0
3.00E-3
6.00E-4
1.20E-3
1.80E-3
2.40E-3
0 2000.00 400.00 800.00 1200.00 1600.00
ReliaSoft's Weibull++ 6.0 - www.Weibull.com
Failure Rate vs Time Plot
Time, (t)
F
a
i
l
u
r
e

R
a
t
e
,

f
(
t
)
/
R
(
t
)
2/27/2003 12:15
Caterpillar Inc.
Jim Picek
Multi-Plot
Data 1
W2 RRX - SRM MED
F=0 / S=0
|1=0.5000, q1=1000.0000, =0
Data 2
W2 RRX - SRM MED
F=0 / S=0
|2=1.0000, q2=1000.0000, =0
Data 3
W2 RRX - SRM MED
F=0 / S=0
|3=3.6000, q3=1000.0000, =0
Data 4
W2 RRX - SRM MED
F=0 / S=0
|4=2.0000, q4=1000.0000, =0
Data 5
W2 RRX - SRM MED
F=0 / S=0
|5=8.0000, q5=1000.0000, =0
20
40
60
80
100
0
Linear Scale
1
9
8
7
6
10
5
4
3
2
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Log Scale
1
10
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
99.9
Weibull Scale
35
Weibull Probability Plot
X = Horizontal Axis = LN(X)
Y = Vertical Axis = LN(LN(1/(1-F(x))))
This transformation makes data with a
Weibull Distribution plot as a straight line
36
Weibull Plot
0
0
, ] ) ( [ exp 1 ) ( x x
x x
x F >

=
|
u
37
Weibull Plot with Parameters
X
0

u
|
63.
2
When 63.2% of all
units fail.
38
Weibull Plot and B-Life
B
1

L
i
f
e

=

6
5

h
r
s

1
0
1
5
0
B
1
0

L
i
f
e

=

2
8
0

h
r
s

B
5
0

L
i
f
e

=

1
0
0
0

h
r
s

Product or component
durability level is
commonly defined by
its B
xx
Life level.
39
Weibull Predictive Stability
1 year after fix:
2 years after fix:
3 years after fix:
Weibull gives stable failure rate projection over time.
1.5% FR
1.7% FR
1.9% FR
40
Incomplete Data
Reliability analysis concentrates on describing the distribution of time-
to-failure for the entire population.
Collecting data on failed units alone is not adequate to judge reliability.
Question: If failure data shows our population has 10 failures under 2000
hours, does this represent good or bad reliability?
population (those that havent failed) is also needed. Consider the situation
of 10 failed units vs. 10,000 non-failed units.
TAKE AWAY: Hours on failed units plus non-failed units defines
reliability. Reliability analysis needs to consider both.
Statistically we call a data set incomplete if it contains non-failed
units. For these units we have incomplete information on the hrs-to-
failure. We dont know their life only that it is longer than the current
hours.
41
Analysis of Incomplete Data Sets
CPI projects usually have incomplete data, or data
containing suspensions (accumulated hours on the
non-failed units).

Special methods exist for analyzing these data sets
Weibull Regression fit methods (with Median or
Hazard ranking to handle suspensions)
Maximum Likelihood Estimation methods
42
Serial Hours Serial Hours Serial Hours Serial Hours
Number Number Number Number
1 4GZ00093 22,726 44 4GZ00136 23,526 87 4GZ00179 29,973 130 4GZ00222 30,051
2 4GZ00094 37,023 45 4GZ00137 23,298 88 4GZ00180 30,209 131 4GZ00223 29,244
3 4GZ00095 35,586 46 4GZ00138 29,736 89 4GZ00181 30,538 132 4GZ00224 29,888
4 4GZ00096 32,039 47 4GZ00139 30,265 90 4GZ00182 30,253 133 4GZ00225 28,768
5 4GZ00097 35,893 48 4GZ00140 32,802 91 4GZ00183 30,710 134 4GZ00226 31,796
6 4GZ00098 35,087 49 4GZ00141 32,589 92 4GZ00184 31,206 135 4GZ00227 31,112
7 4GZ00099 29,146 50 4GZ00142 31,593 93 4GZ00185 16,594 136 4GZ00228 31,357
8 4GZ00100 32,162 51 4GZ00143 31,111 94 4GZ00186 31,419 137 4GZ00229 33,069
9 4GZ00101 29,237 52 4GZ00144 30,863 95 4GZ00187 31,318 138 4GZ00230 15,301
10 4GZ00102 25,255 53 4GZ00145 30,416 96 4GZ00188 27,561 139 4GZ00231 28,699
11 4GZ00103 26,222 54 4GZ00146 30,502 97 4GZ00189 31,328 140 4GZ00232 28,724
12 4GZ00104 24,768 55 4GZ00147 30,855 98 4GZ00190 28,187 141 4GZ00233 27,705
13 4GZ00105 23,708 56 4GZ00148 29,951 99 4GZ00191 27,465 142 4GZ00234 28,590
14 4GZ00106 24,145 57 4GZ00149 30,146 100 4GZ00192 28,668 143 4GZ00235 28,627
15 4GZ00107 27,494 58 4GZ00150 29,134 101 4GZ00193 30,705 144 4GZ00236 28,758
16 4GZ00108 27,921 59 4GZ00151 29,147 102 4GZ00194 30,713 145 4GZ00237 25,776
17 4GZ00109 23,556 60 4GZ00152 30,382 103 4GZ00195 22,123 146 4GZ00238 25,478
18 4GZ00110 24,705 61 4GZ00153 26,776 104 4GZ00196 21,667 147 4GZ00239 25,637
19 4GZ00111 23,878 62 4GZ00154 30,678 105 4GZ00197 24,638 148 4GZ00240 27,075
20 4GZ00112 27,218 63 4GZ00155 29,620 106 4GZ00198 25,394 149 4GZ00241 25,996
21 4GZ00113 26,344 64 4GZ00156 29,803 107 4GZ00199 21,987 150 4GZ00242 25,431
22 4GZ00114 18,745 65 4GZ00157 29,609 108 4GZ00200 25,756 151 4GZ00243 25,169
23 4GZ00115 23,830 66 4GZ00158 26,147 109 4GZ00201 26,093 152 4GZ00244 25,232
24 4GZ00116 24,383 67 4GZ00159 24,476 110 4GZ00202 26,032 153 4GZ00245 26,318
25 4GZ00117 19,065 68 4GZ00160 30,004 111 4GZ00203 26,452 154 4GZ00246 29,932
26 4GZ00118 24,683 69 4GZ00161 28,516 112 4GZ00204 27,706 155 4GZ00247 29,746
27 4GZ00119 23,794 70 4GZ00162 22,378 113 4GZ00205 25,451 156 4GZ00248 31,462
28 4GZ00120 21,816 71 4GZ00163 22,898 114 4GZ00206 26,948 157 4GZ00249 30,532
29 4GZ00121 28,216 72 4GZ00164 22,320 115 4GZ00207 27,192 158 4GZ00250 26,830
30 4GZ00122 28,524 73 4GZ00165 30,626 116 4GZ00208 28,200 159 4GZ00251 25,987
31 4GZ00123 35,746 74 4GZ00166 30,342 117 4GZ00209 26,730 160 4GZ00252 23,385
32 4GZ00124 34,497 75 4GZ00167 31,610 118 4GZ00210 26,192 161 4GZ00253 19,921
33 4GZ00125 35,935 76 4GZ00168 19,584 119 4GZ00211 25,854 162 4GZ00254 18,786
34 4GZ00126 34,645 77 4GZ00169 31,440 120 4GZ00212 16,638 163 4GZ00255 18,543
35 4GZ00127 33,502 78 4GZ00170 29,528 121 4GZ00213 30,193 164 4GZ00256 24,788
36 4GZ00128 34,869 79 4GZ00171 29,459 122 4GZ00214 29,787 165 4GZ00257 23,724
37 4GZ00129 33,365 80 4GZ00172 29,584 123 4GZ00215 28,293 166 4GZ00258 22,329
38 4GZ00130 29,087 81 4GZ00173 30,860 124 4GZ00216 29,290 167 4GZ00259 30,180
39 4GZ00131 29,938 82 4GZ00174 25,602 125 4GZ00217 27,317 168 4GZ00260 23,006
40 4GZ00132 27,807 83 4GZ00175 26,833 126 4GZ00218 30,327 169 4GZ00261 28,666
41 4GZ00133 26,474 84 4GZ00176 28,849 127 4GZ00219 30,280 170 4GZ00262 24,345
42 4GZ00134 18,712 85 4GZ00177 27,582 128 4GZ00220 30,106 171 4GZ00263 24,051
43 4GZ00135 32,629 86 4GZ00178 30,324 129 4GZ00221 30,001 172 4GZ00264 25,179
Population Data
172 Machines
These are
SUSPENSIONS
43
Nomenclature
Failures
Report of a failure on the part(s) under investigation
Not all repairs reported are failures (nor same root-cause?)

Suspensions (or Successes)
# of non-failed machines under investigation (as defined in
Problem Definition)
Can have a major impact on the analysis results (early or late?)

Population
The total number of machines being analyzed
(# of Suspensions + # of Failures = Population)
44
Methods to Address Failures & Suspensions
Time-to-Failure (default) product hours continue on after failure
Assumes the repair is the same as a product which didnt fail
Use if multiple same parts on a machine (planet gears, injectors).
Use if repair is not better or worse than before failure
Light Bulb once failed, the product is removed
Use to characterize time to initial failure
Use where repairs are not the same as factory-built (e.g. weld repairs)
Use when dealer repair is permanent (e.g. factory assembly errors)
Use as a conservative method in any situation
Clock Reset once failed, product hours start over at zero
Use for Component Replacements (component Weibull perspective)
Typically used for fatigue and wearout type failures
Use when repeat failures need to be included
Use with caution if slope is less than 1

45
Example for Addressing Failures & Suspensions
A
B
C
No Failures
1 Failure
2 Failures
Start=0 Now
x
1

x
2
x
3

Light Bulb
A
now
,S

B
x1
,F

C
x2
,F

Time-to-Failure
A
now
,S

B
x1
,F

B
now
,S

C
x2
,F

C
x3
,F

C
now
,S

Clock Reset
A
now
,S

B
x1
,F

(B
now
- B
x1
), S

C
x2
,F
(C
X3
- C
x2
), F

(C
now
- C
x3
), S 2 Failures
1 Suspension
3 Failures, 3 Suspensions
3
machines
46
Data Dryup
Data Dryup is typically the machine hours after which we stop
hearing about failures (often near end of warranty coverage)
Data Dryup will clip Suspension Hours and exclude Failures that
occur after the Data Dryup hours.
Data Dryup is applied to the data before the Time Method.
Data Dryup is used to limit the maximum machine operating
hours for predicting the L1 Failures. It does not impact the
prediction of the L3 Failures.
Use Data Dryup if SIMS reports dont come in at higher
hours, or if data beyond a certain hour point is suspect (for
example, failure reports on a component beyond typical
overhaul hours or warranty period).
Use caution if Data Dryup hours specified are less than the
typical warranty for that component.

47
Suspensions
A
B
C
No Failures
1 Failure
2 Failures
Start=0 Now
x
1

x
2
x
3

Light Bulb
A
T1
,S

B
x1
,F

C
x2
,F

Time-to-Failure
A
T1
,S

B
x1
,F

B
T1
,S

C
x2
,F

C
T1
,S

Clock Reset
A
T1
,S

B
x1
,F

(B
T1
- B
x1
), S

C
x2
,F
(C
T1
- C
x2
), S
2 Failures
1 Suspension
3
machines
T
1

Data Dryup
2 Failures, 3 Different Suspensions
48
Effect of Suspensions on Weibull Analysis
A unit that has not failed by the failure mode in question
is a suspension or censored unit. (e.g, a bolt that fails in
the bolt head would be a suspension in a pull test for
An early suspension is one that was suspended
before the first failure time. A late suspension is
suspended after the last failure. Suspensions between
failures are called random or progressive suspensions.
Early suspensions have negligible effect on the Weibull
plot.
Late suspensions have more significant effect, and may
reduce the slope |. This particularly true when using MLE.
Random or progressive suspensions increase the
characteristic life u, but have little effect on the slope |.
49
Weibull Estimation Methods
There are 3 main Weibull analysis estimation methods
used at CAT
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method w or w/o RBA
Median Rank Regression Method
Weibayes Method (Weibull when | is known)

There are several tools available at CAT & from third
parties that perform these estimation methods. Not
every tool performs every method.
Most Used: CPI, Web Weibull, Minitab, RWA Weibull,
Others: WATk, WidGet, Weibull ++, Excel

50
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method
The maximum likelihood Weibull analysis method consists of finding
the values for | Beta & u Theta which maximize the likelihood, of
obtaining | & u, given the observed data. The likelihood is expressed
in Weibull probability density form. It is a function of the data and the
parameters | & u.
This method works on most data sets & handles late
suspensions much better than median rank regression.
Maximum Likelihood methods can also establish Weibull curves
for data sets with only 1 failure.
Caution: for small numbers of failures a Reduced Bias Adjustment
(RBA) may need to be added to reduce the Beta.
Maximum Likelihood also contains a fully developed hypothesis test
for comparing baseline and after-fix populations.
Tools: CPI, Web Weibull, Minitab, RWA Weibull
51
Median Rank Regression Method
The median rank regression method uses a best-fit
straight line, through the data plotted on Weibull paper,
to estimate the Weibull parameters | Beta & u
Theta. The best-fit line is found using the method of
least squares.
This method works best on data sets with 10 or more
failures & is considered best practice by most.
This method also provides a graphical plot of the data.
Caution: This method doesnt handle large numbers of
late suspensions as well as the maximum likelihood
method.
52
Weibayes Method
or Weibull when | is Known
Weibayes is defined as Weibull analysis with
an assumed | Beta parameter.
Method was developed to solve problems
when traditional Weibull analysis has large
uncertainties or cannot be used because
there are no or few failures.
Weibayes offers significant improvements in
accuracy compared to small sample Weibulls
if Beta is known.
53
Weibayes Method
or Weibull when | is Known (Cont.)
Weibayes method allows CPI Projects to calculate
failures, benefits, & CPI score at the earliest indications
of a problem without having to fail a few more.
When using this method, typical questions to be raised
are
How valid is the assumed | slope?
How sensitive are the resulting failure intervals to different
possible values of |?
With a redesign, what is the probability that a new failure mode
is present?
Is the confidence in the improvement high enough for 6 Sigma
warranty benefits to be L1 or should they be L3?
54
Bi-slope Weibull (inaccurate fits)
Dry-up (warranty report vs failure mode dryup)
Batch Issues (non-uniform failure vs time basis)
Wrong Population (mixed products/applications)
Wrong Population (varied part arrangements?)
Missing Part Numbers (DTF search)
Discussion of data problems and assumptions
55
After the Weibull Model has been created it is very
important to make sure that it is reasonable.
Listed below are several warning signs to look for in the
model to make sure it is reasonable to use
Suspect Outliers
Curved Weibulls
Type I
Type II
Data Dry-up
Steep Slopes
Incomplete DataSuspensions
Predicted failures dont match Actual
56
Suspect Outliers
Suspect Outliers are sometimes the
1
st
or last data points in the data that
are suspected as invalid points.
The points may or may not be
important to the life data analysis.
Review authenticity of SN claim
details & hours and possible other
failure mode differences.
Data is precious & should not be
rejected without sufficient
engineering evidence.
In some cases statistics may be
able to help in the investigation.
Time - to - Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
Time - to - Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
57
Curved Weibulls: Type I
Multiple failure modes
(Most Likely Cause)
Identify different modes
and separate into distinct
Weibull analyses
Batch Problems
Use data segmentation
techniques to handle
batch problems
Negative Start Time,
being used (this is rare)
Use a T
0
Negative t
0
or
classic Bi-Weibull
Time-to-Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
Negative t
0
or
classic Bi-Weibull
Time-to-Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
58
Curved Weibulls: Type II
Batch Problems
Use data segmentation
techniques to handle batch
problems
Warranty Report Dry-up
Use Data Dry-up (data absence
after warranty period)
Multiple failure modes
Identify different modes and
separate into distinct Weibull
analyses
Positive Start Time, Parts
cant fail until used later
Use a T
0
Batch problems
or Positive t
0
or Log Normal
Time-to-Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
Batch problems
or Positive t
0
or Log Normal
Time-to-Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
59
Curved Weibulls: Type II Data Dry-Up
Review Parts Sales
Does parts sales indicate that
failures are still occurring, but
not being reported?
Identify population affected
back in time to match end of
warranty period
Rerun Weibull analysis with
both Median Rank &
Maximum Likelihood
estimation methods
Compare results to parts
sales to see if Weibull
analysis is reasonable
Time-to-Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
Data dries up after a certain
time period such as
warranty period
Time-to-Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
Data dries up after a certain
time period such as
warranty period
60
Steep Slopes
Caution is suggested for
steep slopes (| > 3).
The steep plot often hides bad
Weibull data.
All the messages from data
such as curves, outliers,
doglegs tend to disappear.
Apparently good Weibulls
may have poor fits.
At first glance the plots appear
to be good fits, but there is
curvature and perhaps an
outlier.

Time-to-Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
Case 1 Case 2
Time-to-Failure
Probability
CDF(%)
Case 1 Case 2
61
Weibull with Multiple Failure Modes
Bearing-Sleeve
After sorting out non-
relevant failures
Including all the failures
62
Weibull with Multiple Failure Modes
Hose As.
After sorting out non-
relevant failures
Including all the failures
63
Weibull Needing X
0
Without X
0

With X
0

64
Weibull with Batch Problem
Excluding the
batch problems
Including the batch problem
65
Curved Weibull
Boom Cylinder Rod
Containing two
different
failure modes
66
Curved Weibull
Boom Cylinder Rod
After splitting
the two failure
modes
67
Flow Chart For Selecting Life Data Analysis

Standard Data
( You know
failure and
suspension
times)
Zero failures?
Weibayes
Yes
One Failure
Late
Suspensions
?
Beta Known
No
Yes
Yes
Weibayes
Yes
Weibayes
MLE
No
No
Less Than
21 failures?
Weibayes
Beta known ?
Median Rank
Regression (MRR)
MLE w/RBA
Do
Models Seem
Reasonable?
MRR & MLE
Agree?
Use More
Conservative of
MRR & MLE w/
RBA
Check for batch
problems
No
Yes
Yes
No
yes
Yes No
A1
No
No
Contact MBB
See The New Weibull Handbook For Reference
68
Flow Chart For Selecting Life Data Analysis
( Continued)
A1 Median Rank
Regression (MRR)
Acceptable
Fit?
Use Median Rank
Regression Result
Distribution
Analysis using
Rank Regression
in Minitab
(Contact MBB)
Acceptable
Fit for Any
Distributions
Cross Check
W/MLE ?
Contact MBB Contact MBB
Distribution
Analysis using
MLE
RR & MLE
Agree?
More than
100 Failures?
Use RR result
Use More
Conservative of
RR & MLE Results
Use MLE Result
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
See The New Weibull Handbook For Reference
69
Determining a Significant Difference
Confidence intervals at B5 and/or B10 etc.
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Hypothesis Test
70
Confidence Intervals
Duo-Cone Seals
Hours
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
10000 1000
30
20
10
5
3
2
1
Table of Statistics
226 2490
1.17559 61433.6 1398.974 60 1107
0.99904 33396.4 11663.027
Shape
711 2958
1.00676 59591.8 4922.555
Model
777
773
775
Probability Plot for Hours
Censoring Column in Status - ML Estimates
Weibull - 90% CI
When the confidence intervals do not
overlap we can say the populations
are statistically different at that
confidence level.
In this case the 777 the B5 life is
statistically different than the 773 B5
life and the 775 B5 life.
Slopes are very similar indicating a
common failure mode but Theta is
different.
71
Confidence Intervals
Duo-Cone Seals
Table of Percentiles 777
Standard 90.0% Normal CI
Percent Percentile Error Lower Upper

5 1152.27 88.4247 1015.63 1307.30
6 1451.26 102.160 1292.58 1629.41
7 1765.67 115.279 1585.88 1965.84
8 2094.52 128.003 1894.21 2316.02
9 2437.11 140.542 2216.57 2679.60
10 2792.91 153.092 2552.11 3056.42

Table of Percentiles 773
Standard 90.0% Normal CI
Percent Percentile Error Lower Upper

5 2005.95 217.792 1677.88 2398.17
6 2643.77 266.273 2240.15 3120.12
7 3343.09 320.364 2855.57 3913.85
8 4101.30 381.960 3518.79 4780.25
9 4916.53 452.648 4225.63 5720.40
10 5787.43 533.686 4972.93 6735.34

72
Confidence Intervals

Hours
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
1
0
0
0
0
0
.
0
1
0
0
0
0
.
0
1
0
0
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
0
.
0
1
.
0
0
.
1
40
30
20
10
5
3
2
1
0.01
Correlation 0.977
Shape 0.684089
Scale 1071873
Mean 1387617
StDev 2083837
Median 627282
IQR 1554401
Failure 33
Censor 1884
Table of Statistics
Probability Plot for Hours
Censoring Column in Status - LSXY Estimates
Weibull - 90% CI
73
Confidence Intervals

Comparing old and new machines
with the same part failing. The
new machines have emission
compliant engines. Failure
differences are attributed to
increased vibration due to higher
injection pressures.
Hours
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
1
0
0
0
0
0
.
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
.
0
0
1
0
0
0
.
0
0
1
0
0
.
0
0
1
0
.
0
0
1
.
0
0
0
.
1
0
0
.
0
1
99.99
95
80
50
20
5
2
1
0.01
0.57763 3285729 0.981 28 1301
2.96661 5395 0.994 5 583
Shape Scale Corr F C
Table of Statistics
Tier 2
Tier 3
Population
Probability Plot for Hours
Censoring Column in Status - LSXY Estimates
Weibull - 90% CI
74
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Hypothesis Test
Statistical methodology to establish 90% confidence
Null & Alternative Hypothesis (prove the null hypothesis false with data)
H
o
(null): The baseline reliability is same as after-fix reliability.
H
a
(alternative): The after-fix reliability is different than baseline
Use Max Likelihood Ratio test to compare baseline to after-fix. If
the confidence exceeds 90% that these are different, you can
begin Financial Control. Test works even if after-fix data has
zero failures (given sufficient maturity).
A Weibull curve can be fit to the after-fix data (even if zero failures).
These Weibull parameters are then used to establish size of
improvement.

75
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Hypothesis Test
Statistical methodology to establish 90% confidence

Calculate the Statistic for Likelihood Ratio Test
Test_value = -2 x (LogLik_before + LogLik_after LogLik_Combined)

Use the Test_value in a Chi-Square test with 1 degree of freedom to
determine establish statistical confidence that after-fix population
is different than baseline

Detailed step by step instructions in the appendix.
76
Summary and Take-Aways
Weibull distribution useful to predict life and failures.
Weibull is good analytical tool to help to identify the
failure mode based on beta.
Understand how to handle incomplete data, which time
method to use, and when to use data dryup.
Understand how to select and when to use each
Weibull estimation method.
Uncertainties.
Shortcomings of the failure data and suspension data.
Be able to determine if one population failure rate is
statistically different than another.

77
Who to Call for Help
There are several experts that can help create
a reasonable Weibull analysis if you are having
trouble.
Master Black Belts (MBB)
If they need help they can call on the 6 Sigma Core
team and / or Corporate Quality & Reliability

78
The New Weibull Handbook, Dr. Robert B. Abernethy
http://www.barringer1.com/tnwhb.htm
Weibull Analysis, Dodson, B., ASQ Quality Press, Milwaukee, WI, 1994.
Statistical Design and Analysis of Engineering Experiments by Charles
Lipson and Narendra J.Sheth
QRWB Weibull Analysis
http://cti.corp.cat.com/qrwb/prmbrowser/weibull/weibull.html
CAT Weibull Software
http://tsd.cat.com/e-tsd/docs/index.cfm?H=2&tech_id=5221
http://ris.moss.cat.com/index.html
Weibull Analysis Mathematics
http://gold.pic.cat.com/weibulltools/weibullmath/
CAT Weibull User KN Community
ast
Using Excel for Weibull
http://www.qualitydigest.com/jan99/html/weibull.html
Supersmith Weibull software
http://www.barringer1.com/supers.htm
Product Quality Summit
January 24-28, 2005
Reliability Data Analysis
Appendix 1
80
Provides reports past warranty period
Provides timely information
Ten years of field data
Used for over 25 years

SIMS Data System
(Service Information Management System)
81
Field Repair
Dealer
CAT Computer
Data System
SIMS
Report
Warranty
Claim
(Overlays
SIMS
Report)
SIMS Data System
Service Information Management System
82
Engine Serial Number
Failure Hours/Mileage
Failure Mode Code
Failed Part Number
Brief Comment by Mechanic
Repairing Dealer
Field Data reported to SIMS
83
Arrangement Number
Build Date
Sold Date
Work Code
Selling Dealer / OEM
Budget Code
Engine Code
Model Name
Sales Data reported to SIMS

Data Provided by Cross Referencing Failures Serial Number;
84
Field Failure
Data
Sales
Data
Dealer Repair Frequency
Weibull Analysis
Top Contributor Reports
Predict Plots
Other Reports
(Service Information Management System)
SIMS Data System
85
What Are ??
- DTF Codes
- PD Codes
- odd part numbers
86
DTF Codes Are:
F = Part Number = Last 3 Digits
assigned from: part number causing failure
DT = First 3 Digits = Group Number
assigned from: group number causing failure
Six digit code numbers: such as 212-111
87
How are DTF Used?
- Grouping multiple Part Numbers
- Reliability Targets
- DRF Apportionment
- Defining Profit Center Warranty
88
89
DT Code
90
F Code
91
PD Code
92
Other Types of Part Numbers
SPXXXX - Substitute Part Number

XXXXXX - Substitute Group Number

PSXXXX - Product Support Program

PIXXXX - Product Improvement Program
93
PSP / PIP Definitions
PSP - Product Support Program Incidents
Both before failure (assigned PD code = 56) or after
failure (assigned PD code = 96) event
Get a regular DT code in failure file and are
counted in Weibull or DRF, if after failure (PD=96).

PIP - Product Improvement Program Incidents
Before failure event
Get a 900 DT code and are not counted in Weibull or
DRF.
94
SIMS Entry/
Warranty
Claim
Computer
Data Base
Reliability
Analysis
Dealer Failure
SIMS Data System
95
What are the top three things
our Customers value?
1. Reliability
2. Reliability
3. Reliability
96
Reliability
Probability that equipment will
satisfactorily perform intended function
for a period of time under specified
conditions.

Measured in percent Unacceptable
97
Mean DRF :

Weibull :
Two Reliability Measurements
Systems
Components
(components for special cases)
98
CDIM Project Launch
How to get started;
1. Verify complete model/SN listing
2. Verify correct part numberssss, or DT and F code
3. Establish when problem started (date or SN range)
4. Quick check of warranty/failure rate severity
SIMS Failures or Warranty
Product Sales Population
Failure Rate or Warranty \$/unit ~
99
CDIM Project Launch
Some typical questions;
What is the primary failure mode concern?
Which product models are involved?
Which applications - machine, truck, industrial, marine, EPG?
Does problem involve selected arrangements or attachments?
Are other related parts claimed for this failure mode?
Is a day one problem, quality hiccup, or latest plateau period
evident?
100
1. List top SN prefixes (models/applications) for failing part(s) named.
2. List top related parts reported (DTF search) for these SN prefixes.
3. Merge appropriate top system parts AND top machine/engine
applications (related SN prefixes) into project. Add related non-
failing (immature) SN prefixes also, as appropriate.
4. Plot DRF trends (at right time ranges) by build month for quality
trends (by application subgroup and by SN prefix).

5. Restrict project to top machine/engine applications (SN prefixes and
baseline build date range), based on known design & process
change history, Weibulls, and part system warranty/reliability targets.
6. Restrict by claim story/comment or failure codes to INCLUDE
only failures of interest for problem description failure criteria.
RESTRICT
EXPAND
Verify CPI Project Scope Definition (RWA)
101
Sum Weighting of DRF Metric
VEHR + I
1
xDRF
1
+ I
2
xDRF
2
+ I
3
xDRF
3
+ I
4
xDRF
4

Total Hour Interval
DRF
sum
=
VEHR + 180xDRF
1
+ 800xDRF
2

1000
DRF
mean
=
2. Poor-Mans Weibull* (good for trend analysis);
1. Mean DRF Metric (good for product monitoring);
*Note: More accurate when failure Beta slope ~ 1.0.
102
Hours
F
a
i
l
u
r
e

R
a
t
e

%

1 10 100 1000 10000
Hours
F
a
i
l
u
r
e

R
a
t
e

%

1 10 100 1000 10000
Early Hour Issue
(| < 1.0)
Midlife Issue
(| ~ 1-4)
Which DRF Range Should I Use?
mDRF metric
(1000 hour)
works to track
quality trends
for this issue
Sum DRF metric
(longer hour)
works to track
quality trends
for this issue
103
Problem Root Cause Failure Paretos
DRF trends by build month for quality trends.
DRF trends by repairing dealer for regional service trends.
DRF trends by selling dealer (OEM) for application trends.
DRF trends by customer-code for application trends.
DRF trends by SN prefix, product type, sales model,
build mfg facility, arrangement, PD code, work code,
power application code, or HP rating for other design,
build, or application trends.
Pareto of warranty comment (or story) top keywords
found.
Pareto of warranty parts used in repair (contingent
damage?).
Failures trends by customer state/country location.
Where, when, and what is the sore spot?
104
9KS Marine Pan Gasket DRF Trend
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
1
9
9
8
-
1
2
1
9
9
9
-
0
2
1
9
9
9
-
0
4
1
9
9
9
-
0
6
1
9
9
9
-
0
8
1
9
9
9
-
1
0
1
9
9
9
-
1
2
2
0
0
0
-
0
2
2
0
0
0
-
0
4
2
0
0
0
-
0
6
2
0
0
0
-
0
8
2
0
0
0
-
1
1
2
0
0
1
-
0
2
2
0
0
1
-
0
4
2
0
0
1
-
0
8
Build Date
0
-
1
0
0
0

H
r

D
R
F
,

r
e
p
a
i
r
s
/
1
0
0

h
r
s
0.015 DRF
MLS Hsg Gskt
0.910 DRF
PerfCore Hsg Gskt
Product Quality Summit
January 24-28, 2005

Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test
Detailed Instructions
Appendix 2
106
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test
1. Tabulate data accumulated hours for each member (failures and
non-failures) of before and after-fix population. Create 3 columns
Life (accumulated hours), Type (failure or suspension), When (Before or After Fix)

2. Use Minitab to perform Weibull on baseline and after-fix data sets
Case A: After-fix data has zero failures.
a) Create distinct Hrs and Type columns for each data set
b) do max-likelihood Weibull on baseline. Save log-likelihood from session
window as LogLik_Before into excel spreadsheet
c) do max-likelihood Weibull on after-fix with Weibull slope specified to be
equal to the baseline Weibull slope. Save LN(0.5) as LogLik_After
Case B: After-fix data has 1 or more failures.
a) do max-likelihood Weibull on both before and after in single step using
Type column to stratify data into 2 groups. Set Minitab option for
common Weibull slope for the two populations
b) Save log-likelihoods from session window as LogLik_Before and
LogLik_after

107
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (pg2)
3. Use Minitab to perform Weibull on baseline and after-fix data
combined into one data set.
Save log-likelihood from session window as LogLik_Combined

4. Calculate the Statistic for Likelihood Ratio Test
Test_value = -2 x (LogLik_before + LogLik_after LogLik_Combined)

5. Use the Test_value in a Chi-Square test with 1 degree of freedom to
determine establish statistical confidence that after-fix population is
different than baseline

108
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test step 1
1. Tabulate data accumulated hours for each member
(failures and non-failures) of before and after-fix
population. Create 3 columns
Life (accumulated hours), Type (failure or suspension), When (Before or
After Fix)
109
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test Step 2 (zero failure case)
2. Use Minitab to perform Weibull on baseline and after-fix data sets
Case A: After-fix data has zero failures.
a) Create distinct Hrs and Type columns for before & after
b) do max-likelihood Weibull on baseline. Save log-likelihood from session window as
c) do max-likelihood Weibull on after-fix (Bayes Analysis) with Weibull slope specified to be equal to
the before fix Weibull slope. Minitab does not report a log-likelihood enter LN(0.5) as

110
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test Step 2 (zero failure case)
2. Use Minitab to perform Weibull on baseline and after-fix data sets
Case A: After-fix data has zero failures.
a) Create distinct Hrs and Type columns for before & after
b) do max-likelihood Weibull on baseline. Save log-likelihood from session window as LogLik_Before
c) do max-likelihood Weibull on after-fix (Bayes Analysis) with Weibull slope specified to be
equal to the before fix Weibull slope. Minitab does not report a log-likelihood enter
LN(0.5) as LogLik_After in excel spreadsheet

111
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test - Step 2 (1 or more
failures)
1. Use Minitab to perform Weibull on baseline and after-fix data sets
Case B: After-fix data has 1 or more failures.
do max-likelihood Weibull on both before and after in single step using Type
column to stratify data into 2 groups. Set Minitab option for common Weibull
slope for the two populations
Save log-likelihoods from session window as LogLik_Before and LogLik_after

112
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test Step3
3. Use Minitab to perform Weibull on baseline and after-fix data
combined into one data set.
Save log-likelihood from session window as LogLik_Combined

113
Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test Step 4 & 5

4. Calculate the Statistic for Likelihood Ratio Test
Test_value = 2 x (LogLik_before + LogLik_after LogLik_Combined)

5. Use the Test_value in a Chi-Square test with 1 degree of freedom to
determine establish statistical confidence that after-fix population is
different than baseline

90% Confidence Test for Fix Calculations
Log-
Likelihood
Combined
Log-
Likelihood
Before Fix
Log-
Likelihood
After Fix Bef+Aft Test_value
# of Degrees
of Freedom P-Value Confidence
-223.462 -211.204 -11.919 -223.123 0.678 1 0.41027627 59%
In example 90%
Confidence not
meet. Wait and
recalculate in 1
or 2 months