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October 2004
Options Definition
The right, but not the obligation, to enter into a transaction [buy or sell] at a pre-agreed price, quantity, time [by a specified date in the future], and terms. The option buyer typically pays the seller an upfront free (the premium) for the option rights.
Options Markets
Over-The-Counter (OTC)
And Physicals Market, Tailored
Exchange Traded
Standardized Terms Style Expiry Dates Strike Levels
Option Concepts
Insurance Policy Analogy Commonly Cited Fee For Providing Financial Protection Transfer Of (Price) Risk Intuitive Pricing Real Estate Options To Buy, Extended By Property Owners
Volatility Factor
Measure Of The Degree Of Change In The Value Of The Underlying Asset Historical Volatility Implied Volatility
The Greeks
Very common jargon in financial trading Delta Vega V
Gamma Theta
The Degree Of Change In Option Value Relative To A Change In The Price Volatility Of The Underlying Asset
Delta Concepts
Delta Of An Option Approaches 0 As Option Moves Deep Out-Of-The-Money Delta Of An Option Approaches 1 As Option Moves Deep In-The-Money
Option Begins To Behave Like The Underlying
Why Is That?
Combinations Of Options
Or Combos Of Options & Other Instruments Such As Swaps Embedded Options Building Blocks
Participation swaps
When Underlying Exposure Is Uncertain Or Contingent When Option Pricing Is Viewed As Attractive When Weak Credit Standing Precludes Use Of Fixed Price Swaps, Or Other Instruments
Ultimately, When Exposures, Market View, And Trading Strategy Dictate Using Options
Options Pricing
Theoretically The Net Present Value Of All Potential Outcomes For The Option Various Methodologies For Determining Issues In Energy Options
Price Distribution Price History Illiquidity
Options Can Be Considered Wasting Assets That [Generally] Decline In Value Over Time. After Expiration Date, Becomes Worthless.
Options Price Simulation Based On Assumptions & Probabilities, Not A Clarivoyant Prediction
Sp
rdSp
r2duSp
r2d2Sp
Probability Of Outcomes
A Call On Capacity
A Call Option
Price Distribution
Lognormal [Bell Shaped Curve] Skew Event Risk
Fat Tails Probability Degree Of Certainty
Payoff
Spot Price
Option Pricing
Various Theoretical Pricing Basis For Options
Black-Scholes Merton Model Adjusted Black-Scholes Cox, Ross & Rubenstein Bi-Nominal, Tri-Nominal
Option Pricing
Theory Aside, The Practical Pricing Issues Can Sometimes Be A Bit Difficult
Option Pricing
Valuation Price Discovery
Timing Expertise Basis
Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility Is Determined From Past Price Data
Selection Of Appropriate Time Period
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility Is Determined Mathematically From Option Pricing Formulas When Premium Is Known Implied Volatility Is Closely Watched By Traders Reflects Market Perceptions Of Future Volatility, Not Necessarily Historical Levels
May Be A Better Match For Exposure Based On Daily Consumption Of A Commodity (NG)
Delta Hedging
Dynamic Hedging Using Futures To Hedge An Option Position Involves Frequently Buying And Selling Futures Contracts To Re-Balance Options Portfolio
Widely Used Technique
Delta Hedging
Delta-Neutral Maintaining A Risk Neutral Position (Hedging) Requires Continual Monitoring And Managing Trading Expertise
Option Value
At-The-Money In-The-Money Out-Of-The-Money Option Price Can Be Viewed As Comprised Of Two Components
Intrinsic Value Extrinsic Value, Time Value
Option Value
Deep In-The-Money Deep Out-Of-The-Money
Options On Spreads
Price Distribution Is Likely Not Lognormal Price Spread Can Be Negative Complex Pricing Issues Refinery Crack Spreads Power Spark Spreads
But Counter Party (Buyer) May Require Substantial Credit Support Such As Margin/Collateral, LC
Using Options
High Potential Opportunity In Energy Options
But Potentially Very Dangerous If A Blunder Made
Numerous Areas Of Possible Risk