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Jasmine Project

Judy Module & Riser Platform Risk Assessments


October 2008

ConocoPhillips - Risk Management

Plan
Mitigation & Monitoring Plan Documents the risks, mitigation plan, ownership, and planned review points.

Risk Management Plan Documents who, what, when, & how Risk Management will apply to each project

Implement

Four Steps Four Products

Identify

Quantitative Assessment Fit for purpose by stage & size. Primary product is Contingency Breakdown Report (CBR)

Risk Register Listing of risks with initial impact assessment and mitigation plan

Assess

NM to add slide showing who was involved

Checklist for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)


A risk

register is developed and directly linked to the risk assessment

The project schedule is linked to the cost model Variances (margin of error) are determined for cost elements and

schedule task durations


Identified risks are assessed (probability and impact to cost and/or schedule) Correlations established for cost elements, schedule durations and risks All work is time stamped, documented Goal - Clear understanding of the impact risks will have to project costs and schedule milestones

Capital Cost Breakdown

Escalation is the final layer Risk assessment layers in dynamic events : schedule delays, design basis changes, etc

Escalation

Sched. Risk Events Cost Risk Events Estimate Variances Design Allowance

Sources of Contingency

The initial cost estimate and schedule are based on static parameters: a fixed basis of design, and other common assumptions

Premised Cost Estimate and Schedule (no contingency)

Total Cost Estimate

Estimate Variance Cost / Schedule


Variances represent the margin of error on cost premise elements and schedule durations and are expressed as a range around the target value. Variances are determined with the assumption of a fixed scope and schedule.

Judy Module Cost Input Template


Cost ID BFN BFS T1N T1S T2N T2S J1N J1S J2N J2S PN PS BN BS FLOT OWNER Cost Description Brownfield Brownfield Topside 1 (wellheads) Topside 1 (wellheads) Topside 2 (accomodation) Topside 2 (accomodation) Jacket 1 (wellheads) Jacket 1 (wellheads) Jacket 2 (accomodation) Jacket 2 (accomodation) Pipeline Pipeline Bridge Bridge Flotel Owners Cost Type Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Total cost 37,000,000 11,200,000 65,999,993 39,900,000 45,499,995 24,200,000 51,599,995 18,400,000 29,900,000 8,800,000 46,000,005 11,000,000 5,400,000 1,700,000 88,000,000 103,000,000 587,599,988 Loading Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Normal Distribution shape Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Min (%) 93% 93% 76% 88% 70% 88% 87% 77% 85% 77% 89% 89% 93% 93% 87% 92% Likely (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Max (%) 150% 150% 150% 125% 150% 125% 150% 131% 150% 131% 187% 187% 153% 153% 175% 174%

Riser Platform Cost Input Template


Cost ID JWHTSN JWHTSS JWHJN JWHJS ATSN ATSS AJN AJS JBN JBS RPTSN RPTSS RPJN RPJS RPBN RPBS EPLN EPLS CCN CCS MODSN MODSS OWNER FLOTEL Cost Description JASMINE WELLHEAD TOPSIDES JASMINE WELLHEAD TOPSIDES JASMINE WELLHEAD JACKET JASMINE WELLHEAD JACKET ACCOMIDATION TOPSIDES ACCOMIDATION TOPSIDES ACCOMIDATION JACKET ACCOMIDATION JACKET JASMINE BRIDGE JASMINE BRIDGE RISER PLATFORM TOPSIDES RISER PLATFORM TOPSIDES RISER PLATFORM JACKET RISER PLATFORM JACKET RISER PLATFORM TO JUDY BRIDGE RISER PLATFORM TO JUDY BRIDGE 3-PHASE EXPORT P/L JASMINE TO JUDY 3-PHASE EXPORT P/L JASMINE TO JUDY COMMUNICATION CABLE COMMUNICATION CABLE MOD. TO COMPLEX MOD. TO COMPLEX PROJECT OWNERS COSTS FLOTEL Cost Type Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Expenses Total cost 55,929,887 33,812,162 43,775,060 15,609,713 38,662,571 20,563,391 25,362,708 7,464,610 4,426,402 1,393,497 106,215,094 56,492,429 42,546,753 14,182,251 8,161,442 2,402,030 39,109,922 9,352,372 6,890,078 1,647,627 36,846,473 11,153,527 107,956,522 83,043,478 773,000,000 Loading Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Spread Normal Normal Distribution shape Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Triangle Min (%) 76% 88% 77% 85% 70% 88% 85% 77% 93% 93% 76% 88% 77% 85% 93% 93% 89% 89% 89% 89% 93% 93% 92% 87% Likely (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Max (%) 150% 125% 131% 150% 150% 125% 150% 131% 153% 153% 150% 125% 131% 150% 153% 153% 187% 187% 187% 187% 150% 150% 174% 175%

Schedule Variances
Schedule duration variances were applied to the benchmark durations per the indicative variance
ranges from the performance forum for CNS projects, the ranges were applied by means of a template to to the activites which came under the grouped headings of engineering, procurement, fabrication, installation and Hook-UP. The variance ranges were applied to both schedules activities as follows:

Phase

Jacket

Topsides

Brownfield

Minus Engineering Procurement Fabrication Installation HUC 12% 18% 21% 9%

Plus 28% 42% 78% 120%

Minus 17% 19% 23% 11% 18%

Plus 58% 62% 115% 73% 218%

Minus 8% 6% 11% 11% 3%

Plus 44% 53% 25% 93% 203%

The schedule variances were applied uniformly to both schedule activity sets

Risk Events
Risk Events: Discrete events that may or may not happen based on their probability of occurrence. These events are applied in addition to the variance ranges established for schedule activities and cost elements. Quantification includes both likelihood and impact assessments. Risk Categories Definition - What are you going to build (scope) Technical - How hard will it be to do Organization/Commercial - Who will do what we are going to do Stakeholders - Who can influence what we are going to do and how

Neil to insert risk matrix

Judy Module Risk Events

Riser Platform Risk Events

Risk Model Results Cost Comparison


Judy Module ( Gross)

DE P10 P50 P90

587,599,988 625,084,212 721,915,549 847,233,991 Uplift to DE 6.38% 22.86% 44.19% To P50 -13.41% 0.00% 17.36%

Riser Platform ( Gross)

DE P10 P50 P90

773,000,000 805,284,248 943,270,198 1,108,482,177 Uplift to DE 4.18% 22.03% 43.40% To P50 -14.63% 0.00% 17.51%

Cost Comparison
Distribution Analyzer Report

Gross

Cumulative Probability

Judy Module First Production


Judy Module - First Production - Mean Exposure
18

16

14

12

Days

10

Start: First Production: Deterministic 19-Jun-12 P10 03-Jul-12 P50 23-Oct-12 P90 18-Apr-13

0
S13 S01 S09 S10 D01 D02 S07 LPHI2 LPHI1 M14a T07B T07C M14b T07A T07D Ron1 T09b T09a T11 T10 T06 T02 T05 M02 M15 M01 M07 M03 M04 M08 M13 T20

Days
10 15 20 25 30 35 -5 0
M02 M14a M01 S01 S13 S09 M07 M14b S10 T07B M03 LPHI2 D01 T10 M15 T11 LPHI1 T07E D02 M04 T06 M08 T07C M13 S07 T02 T05 T20 Casc1 T07A

Riser Platform First Production


Riser Platform - First Production - Mean Exposure

Next Steps
Complete concept selection Prepare risk assessment (single concept) for AFF gate review and approval.
review / update / validate cost variances review / update / validate schedule variances review / update / validate risk event impacts review / validate cost and timing output ranges calculate escalation impact calculate currency of spend foreign exchange impact prepare Contingency Breakdown Report (CBR) corporate review with risking group