Integrated Approaches for Runoff Forecasting

Ashu Jain Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur Kanpur-UP, INDIA

Outline

Hydrologic Cycle Global Water Facts Indian Scenario & Possible Solutions Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Existing Approaches Integrated Approaches (3) Conclusions

Hydrologic Cycle

(Source: http://saturn.geog.umb.edu/wdripps/Hydrology/Hydrology%20Fall%202004/precipitation.ppt)

Global Water Facts

Total water 1386 Million Kilometer^3 97% in oceans & 1% on land is saline => only 35 MKm3 on land is fresh Of which 25 MKm3 is solid Only 10 MKm3 is fresh liquid water Availability is CONSTANT Water Demands are INCREASING (2050!) Optimal use of existing WR is needed

Indian Scenario

Water availability in India is highly uneven with respect to both space and time

Indian Scenario

Indian Scenario

Kanpur Scenario
Dainik Jagran: 2 May 2007

Indian Scenario
We depend on rainfall for meeting most of our
water requirements Most of the rainfall in majority of the country is concentrated in monsoon season (JuneSeptember) The uneven spatio-temporal distribution of water and uncertain nature of rainfall patterns call for innovative methods for water utilization and forecasting

Possible Solutions
Solutions of water problems in India lie in its root causes Space => Interlinking Time => Rainwater Harvesting

Possible Solutions
Other solutions include Optimal Management of Existing WR Runoff Forecasting Technological Advancements Innovative Integrated Approaches

Runoff Concepts

Amount of water at any time

measured in m3/sec at any location in a river is called runoff. A graph showing runoff as a function of time is called a runoff hydrograph.

A Runoff Hydrograph

Runoff Concepts
Runoff at any time depends on Catchment characteristics Storm characteristics Climatic characteristics Geo-morphological characteristics

Rainfall Runoff Modelling

Physical processes involved in

hydrologic cycle
Extremely complex Dynamic Non-linear Fragmented

Not clearly understood Very difficult to model

Rainfall Runoff Models

Conceptual or Deterministic Systems Theoretic or Black Box Type Regression Time Series ANNs

Integrated

Integrated R-R Models

Innovative Integrated approaches

Conceptual + ANN Decomposition + Aggregation Time Series + ANN

Integrated Rainfall-Runoff Model-1

Conceptual + ANN
Conceptual Model

Conceptual + ANN
ANN/Black Box Model

Conceptual + ANN
An integrated/hybrid model capable of exploiting the advantages of conceptual and ANN techniques may be able to provide superior performance in runoff forecasting.

Conceptual + ANN

Data Employed: Kentucky River

Spatially aggregated daily rainfall (mm) Average daily river flow (m3/s) Total length of data 26 years First 13 years for training/calibration Next 13 years for testing/validation

Integrated R-R Model-1

Conceptual: Base flow, infiltration, continuous soil
moisture accounting, and the evapotranspiration processes are modelled using conceptual/ deterministic techniques ANN: Complex, dynamic, and non-linear nature of the process of transformation of effective rainfalls into runoff in a watershed are modelled using ANNs Training: ANN training is carried out using GA.

Integrated R-R Model-1 Results

M odel D uring Training C onceptual ANN Integrated D uring Testing C onceptual ANN Integrated AARE 23.57 54.45 21.58 24.68 66.78 23.09 R 0.9363 0.9770 0.9773 0.9332 0.9700 0.9704

Integrated R-R Model-1 Results

Observed and Predicted Runoff in 1986 (Dry Year)

ANN Model Results (Summer)

Integrated Model-1 Results (Summer)

Integrated Rainfall-Runoff Model-2

Decomposition + Aggregation
F1

R2

F2

Flow

F3

R1

Time

Figure 1: Decomposition of a Flow Hydrograph

Integrated Model-2 Details

Table 1: Details of Neural Network Models ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Model Number Statistics Input Variables of Data (x, ) ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Model-I Model-II Model-III Model-IV Rising Falling Rising Falling Rising Falling-I Falling-II Rising-I Rising-II Falling-I Falling-II High Medium Low High Medium-I Medium-II Low 5-4-1 5-4-1 3-3-1 5-4-1 Recession 5-4-1 3-3-1 Recession Inverse Recession 5-4-1 3-3-1 Recession 5-4-1 3-3-1 4-3-1 5-4-1 4-3-1 3-3-1 3-3-1 4747 1783 2963 1783 2963 1783 1189 1774 182 1601 1189 1774 693 1061 2993 409 704 1089 2545 (146.7, 238.8) (233.5, 330.3) (94.4, 135.7) (233.5, 330.3) (94.4, 135.7) (233.5, 330.3) (198.5, 164.4) (25.3, 20.1) (8.2, 2.1) (259.0, 339.4) (198.5, 164.4) (25.3, 20.1) (537.8, 384.2) (195.5, 127.6) (38.8, 50.9) (678.9, 426.3) (280.4, 157.4) (136.7, 104.4) (28.4, 34.3) P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), P(t-1), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), P(t-1), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) P(t), Q(t-1), and Q(t-2) Portion Architecture

Model-V

SOM(3)

SOM(4)

Integrated Model-2 Results

M odel AARE R During Training M odelI M odelII M odelIII M odelIV M odelV 54.97 61.28 31.66 31.90 23.85 0.9770 0.9764 0.9607 0.9777 0.9780 AARE R

During Testing 65.71 72.28 36.45 39.56 21.63 0.9700 0.9696 0.9571 0.9684 0.9678

Scatter Plot from Model-V

Results-Model-V: Drought Year 1988

Integrated Rainfall-Runoff Model-3

Time Series + ANN

Basic Steps in Time Series Modelling
Detrending Deseasonalization Auto-correlation

ANN modelling involves presenting raw

data as inputs Time series steps can be carried out before presenting data to ANN as inputs.

Time Series + ANN

ANN1 Raw Data ANN2 Detrended Data ANN3 Detrended and
Deseasonalized Data

Time Series + ANN

Data Employed
Monthly runoff from Colorado River @ Lees Ferry, USA for 62 years Past four months lag 50 Years for training 12 years for testing

Time Series + ANN

Lag 2 Results AARE Time Series ANN1 ANN2 ANN3 92.78 44.51 19.55 12.55 R 0.48 0.62 0.77 0.86 Lag 4 Results AARE 88.52 44.01 17.67 9.62 R 0.51 0.68 0.80 0.89

Conclusions
Runoff forecasting is important for efficient management of existing water resources. An individual modelling technique provides reasonable accuracy in runoff forecasting. Neural network based solutions can be better than those obtained using conventional methods.

Conclusions
Integrated modelling approaches have the potential for producing higher accuracy in runoff forecasts. Innovative integrated approaches dependent on the nature of problem are needed in order to develop hybrid forecast models capable of exploiting the strengths of the available individual techniques.

Thank You