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Flood in Jakarta as Impact of


Climate Change

Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.


Head of Meteorology Department, ITB

Mini-Symposium: “Flood Risk and Adaptation in Jakarta”


FITB-ITB Campus, 11th November 2008
OUTLINE
 Historical Data of Flood in Jakarta
 Vulnerable Areas of Flood in Jakarta
 Cause of Flood in Jakarta:
- Tide Activity
- Shipment Flood
 Accumulation of Floods in Jakarta
 Adaptation to impact of Climate Change in Jakarta
 Extended Area Research on West Java
- Land Use Change and Climate Change in Citarum River
- Sea Level Rise in Indramayu and Subang
Historical Data of Flood in Jakarta
7

4
Frequency

0
1621 1654 1918 1942 1976 1996 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Source : Flood Report of Department of Public Work, 2007


Flood Information of LAPAN, 2008
VULNERABLE AREA OF FLOOD IN JAKARTA

Banjir Jakarta Saat ini

78 Points of
Inundated
Area

Source : Department of Public Work, 2007


VULNERABLE AREA OF FLOOD FROM RIVER FLOW

Source : Department of Public Work, 2007


Causes of Flood in Jakarta
 Non Permanent (Short Term)
- Flood in Jakarta is affected by tide activity.
- Flood in Jakarta is caused by “Shipment Flood”.

 Permanent (Long Term)


- Flood is caused by Sea Level Rise.

 Extremely event
- Accumulation of floods from non permanent and permanent flood.
Flood in Jakarta as
Implication of Tide Activity
0

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


1

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


2

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


4

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


5

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


6

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


7

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


8

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


9

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


10

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


11

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


12

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


13

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


14

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


15

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


16

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


17

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


18

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


19

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


20

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Sumber
Source: :Susandi
Susandidkk.,
et al.,2007
2007
21

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


22

Monumen Nasional
Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung Priok
Pademangan
Soekarno-Hatta
Penjaringan Airport

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


23

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


24

Source : Susandi et al., 2007


Causes of Tidal Wave (ROB) Flood :

1. Land Subsidence
Map of Land Subsidence (1982-1997)
PETA PENURUNAN MUKAN TANAH TAHUN 1982-1997

W E

Penjaringan S
Pademangan Koja
Cilincing 2 0 2 4 Km
Kalideres Tanjung Priok
Taman Sari
Cengkareng Tambora
Sawah Besar
Grogol Petamburan Kemayoran Kelapa Gading
Gambir
Cempaka Putih
Senen Cakung
Kebon Jeruk
Kembangan Palmerah Menteng Pulo Gadung
Matraman KETERANGAN :
Tanah Abang
Administrasi Kecamatan
Setiabudi Sungai
Kebayoran Baru Tebet Jatinegara Penurunan Muka Tanah (Meter) :
Duren Sawit 0.012 - 0.024
Pesanggrahan 0.024 - 0.036
Kebayoran BAru 0.036 - 0.048
Kebayoran Lama Pancoran
0.048 - 0.06
Mampang Prapatan Makasar 0.06 - 0.072
0.072 - 0.084
Kramatjati 0.084 - 0.096
Pasar Minggu 0.096 - 0.108
Cilandak 0.108 - 0.12
Cipayung No Data
Wilayah DKI Jakarta

Source : Dinas Pertambangan dan Energi Propinsi DKI Jakarta


Trend of Land Subsidence in Jakarta
Trend factor  0.8 cm/year
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
(cm)

-20
tanah (cm)

-26
Subsidence

-41
-40
Penurunan

-55
Land

-62
-60
-68
-72
-76
-80 -78
Year
Tahun

Source : Priyambodo, 2005


Causes of Tidal Wave (ROB) Flood :

1. Land Subsidence

2. High Rainfall
Raifall in Jakarta will be increase caused by
a lot of water vapors. This situation is
affected by warming over sea level.
Historical Data of Temperature
Change inJakarta Region
Historical Data of Temperature Change in
Jakarta Region
00:00 GMT October 2008
01:00 GMT October 2008
02:00 GMT October 2008
03:00 GMT October 2008
04:00 GMT October 2008
05:00 GMT October 2008
06:00 GMT October 2008
07:00 GMT October 2008
08:00 GMT October 2008
09:00 GMT October 2008
10:00 GMT October 2008
11:00 GMT October 2008
12:00 GMT October 2008
13:00 GMT October 2008
14:00 GMT October 2008
15:00 GMT October 2008
16:00 GMT October 2008
17:00 GMT October 2008
18:00 GMT October 2008
19:00 GMT October 2008
20:00 GMT October 2008
21:00 GMT October 2008
22:00 GMT October 2008
23:00 GMT October 2008
Mean Rainfall Anomalies
in Jakarta Region
Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2005)

 Increase of rainfall is
occurred in rain season
(January) over Jakarta
region during period of
1996-2005.
 The increase is range of
20-200 mm.
 The highest increase of
the region is
Pulogadung.
 Potency of flood
occurrence will be high.
Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2005)

 Period of Transition
Season (March) will be
increase of rainfall in
high level over Jakarta
and its surroundings.
 The increase will be
range of 60-540 mm.
 South Jakarta to Bogor
are region which have
high increase of rainfall.
 Most of Shipment Flood
come from Bogor.
Projection of Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2035)

 The projection in rain season


(January) from 1996 to 2035
shows increase of rainfall in
North Jakarta Region.

 The increase is range of 10 –


110 mm.

 Potency of huge flood will be


occurred in North Jakarta.
Projection of Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2035)

 There is increase of
rainfall about 50 – 550
mm in South Jakarta
region to Bogor.
(For transition period -
March)

 Potency of flood in South


Jakarta is “shipment
flood” from Bogor
Region.
Flood in Jakarta as
“Shipment Flood”
Maximum Rainfall is
360 mm.
In South Region of
Jakarta

Projection of
Rainfall over
Jakarta
(January 2015)

Source : Susandi et al., 2006


Maximum Rainfall is
360 mm.
In South of Jakarta
(Slowly spread towards North)

Projection of
Rainfall over
Jakarta
(January 2020)

Source : Susandi et al., 2006


Maximum Rainfall is
370 mm.
In South of Jakarta
(Slowly spread towards North)

Projection of
Rainfall over
Jakarta
(January 2025)

Source : Susandi et al., 2006


Maximum Rainfall is
370 mm.
In South of Jakarta
(Slowly spread towards North)

Projection of
Rainfall over
Jakarta
(January 2030)

Source : Susandi et al., 2006


Maximum Rainfall is
380 mm.
In South of Jakarta
(Slowly spread towards North)

Projection of
Rainfall over
Jakarta
(January 2035)

Source : Susandi et al., 2006


Permanent Flood in Jakarta
is Caused by
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise caused by climate change is
projected continues to increase.

Global Sea Level Rise 1880 – 2000 (IPCC, 2003)


Trend of Sea Level Rise in Jakarta
Trend factor  0.57 cm/year
140
Mean Sea Level (cm)

105 123.06
108.69
94.31
70 79.94
65.56
51.19
35

0
1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Year

Source : Meliana, 2005


Dike as a sea water resistor.
Sea level rise causes water to pass over dike.

If tidal wave occur, water will be overflow


to land area.
2005

North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2010

Cilincing

Tanjung
Priok

North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2015

Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung
Priok Pademangan

North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2020

Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung
Priok Pademangan

North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2025

Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung
Priok Pademangan

Penjaringan

North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2030

Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung
Priok Pademangan

Penjaringan

North Soekarno-Hatta
Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007


2035

Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung
Priok Pademangan

Penjaringan

North Soekarno-Hatta
Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007


2040

Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung
Priok Pademangan

Penjaringan

North Soekarno-Hatta
Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007


2045

Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung
Priok Pademangan

Penjaringan

North Soekarno-Hatta
Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007


2050

Cilincing

Koja
Tanjung
Priok Pademangan

Penjaringan

North Soekarno-Hatta
Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007


2050

Monumen Nasional?
(2080?)

Cilincing

Koja
Water will inundate Jakarta Tanjung
region as area ±160,4 km2 Priok Pademangan
(24,3% Area of Jakarta) in 2050

Penjaringan

North Soekarno-Hatta
Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007


ACCUMULATION OF FLOODS
IN JAKARTA
It will occur accumulation of floods in Jakarta
by the year 2050.
Projection of Inundated Area
180
in Jakarta
(Km22))

156.13 160.37
Area (Km

135
Genangan

91.35
79.28
of Inundated

76.83
90
54.44 57.43
Total Luas

38.38
45 46.81 63.64
35.70 48.69 55.05
41.58
Total

33.64
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tahun
Year

Skenario Min
Min. Scenario Mean Scenario
Skenario Rata-rata Max. Scenario
Skenario Max
Total Loss of Economic Sector in Jakarta
Total Kerugian Ekonomi 16 Caused by Sea Level Rise

12
(Milyar dollar)

0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tahun

Skenario Min
Min. Scenario Skenario Rata-rata
Mean Scenario Skenario Max
Max. Scenario
SUMMARY

Flood which is frequently occurred in Jakarta is caused by


increasing of rainfall, sea level rise, and tidal wave.
Adaptation to Climate
Change in Jakarta
Adaptation to be conducted
 Planting Mangrove
 Building Seawall (Water Resist Wall)
 Utilizing water abundant from South Area as
main water resource in Jakarta
 Building Polder (Water Entrapment)
ILUSTRATION
Water Resource
Water Space

Water Flow Pipe

Polder

Mangrove
Seawall
Extended Area to West Java
- Land Use Change and Climate Change in Citarum River
- Sea Level Rise in Subang and Indramayu
Land Use Change and Climate
Change
(Citarum River)
Satellite Image Image Satellite Ground Types
Landsat TM Landsat TM Map Climate Data
8 Band 3 Band

NDVI Image
Calculation Classification Groundwater Climate
Calculation Projection

NDVI Image
Projection Digitation

Map of Land use Land Use Map


projection

Overlay of Land Use


Map – Types of
Ground

Flow Chart
PROJECTION MAP of The Research
Direct Runoff, Baseflow, Temperature
& Rainfall
Land Use Map

Curug

PURWAKARTA

Jatiluhur Cikumpay

Cibeurum

Cirata

CIRANJANG

Rajamandala
Projection of Temperature
over Citarum Region
Temperature
Temperature in January 2001
Temperature
Temperature in January 2010
Temperature
Temperature in January 2020
Temperature
Temperature in July 2001
Temperature
Temperature in July 2010
Temperature
Temperature in July 2020
Projection of Rainfall
over Citarum Region
Rainfall Rainfall in January 2020
Rainfall Rainfall in July 2020
Direct Runoff

Curug

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

CIRANJANG

Rajamandala
Direct Runoff

Curug

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

CIRANJANG

Rajamandala
Baseflow

Curug

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

CIRANJANG

Rajamandala
Baseflow

Curug

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

CIRANJANG

Rajamandala
Flood Vulnerable Region

Curug

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

CIRANJANG

Rajamandala
Sea Level Rise in Subang and
Indramayu
Subang

Indramayu

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


Sea Level Rise in
Indramayu Region
2010

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2015

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2020

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2030

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2040

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2050

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2060

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2070

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2080

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2090

Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2100
Inundated area = 1,63 km2
Sindang

Indramayu
Losarang
Kandanghaur

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


Sea Level Rise in
Subang Region
2010
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2015
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2020
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2030
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2040
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2050
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2060
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2070
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2080
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2090
Legonkulon

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


2100
Legonkulon

Inundated area = 2,05 km2

Pamanukan
Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)


armi@geoph.itb.ac.id
www.armisusandi.com
Climate change
and variability

Impacts

Mitigation Adaptation

Responses

Types of climate data


The Objective of adaptation: needs to assess the
impact:
- For better planning in considering climate condition - Long term mean climate
(climate change) in order to reach sustainable change (exposure’s mean
development (e.g. water resource management, change)
agriculture)
- To reduce possibilty of disaster occurrence caused of - Potency of extreme
climate (e.g. flood, drought, forest fire, landslide) climate intensity and
frequency (variability of
exposures)