Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?

Overview of lecture

The year so far?

Predictable?

Unpredictable?

Nov 2000
-
Nov 2001

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?

Predictable times?

Predictable impacts?

Predictable places?

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable times?
Short term annual patterns
To make a hurricane take

• warm ocean - 27ºC

• upper atmosphere weather
• a dash of Coriolis force - the spinning effect
of the Earth’s rotation

N.hemisphere - J F M A M J J A S O N D

S.hemisphere - J F M A M J J A S O N D

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable times?
Medium term patterns
To make a hurricane take

• warm ocean - 27ºC

• upper atmosphere weather
• a dash of Coriolis force

El Niño / La Niña

Antarctic circum-
polar wave

Pacific decadal
oscillation

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable impacts?
Wind * Waves * Rain * Surge

Saffir Simpson Scale - 1 2 3 4 5

mph 74 96 111 131 156+ (70m/s)
Impacts on:

Buildings: 20

Loss as % value
15
Agriculture: 10
5

Forestry: 0
0 20 40 60 80

Windspeed (m/s) SS4 SS5

Infrastructure:
Source - Swiss Re Insurance publication

Ecosystems:

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable impacts?
Wind * Waves * Rain * Surge

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable impacts?
Wind * Waves * Rain * Surge

Eg Sept 99: Hurricane Floyd 14 inches (35cm) rain in 3

hrs. Rivers rising 10 - 15 feet (3 - 4.5 m)

Oct 1998: Hurricane

Mitch
25 inches rainfall
(63cm) in 36 hours

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable impacts?
Wind * Waves * Rain * Surge

Galveston (Texas) 8 Sep 1900.

One of US most prosperous cities -
built on island 2 - 3m above sea level.

Hurricane surge = 5m.

Combination of damage
to wooden houses -

* Wind damage
* Flotation
8000-12000 deaths due
to storm surge.

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable places?
Global scale patterns
To make a hurricane take

• warm ocean - 27ºC

• upper atmosphere divergence
• a dash of Coriolis force

Figures
Too cool show
number of
26 hurricanes
13 9 on average
6 per year for
Too little spin
that region
0 8 10 6

Too cool

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable places?
Local scale patterns River flood plain eg
Coastal plain / Barrier
Cyclone Eline Feb 2000
To make a hazard take Island Island eg
Floyd Sept 99 - USA
Mozambique
• A vulnerable location

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Predictable places?
Micro scale patterns Sample result
To make a hazard take
Where to avoid
• A vulnerable location

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Enter the Unpredictables

Speed of system

The system moves at

Hurricane Dennis - Sept 99

impacts on the Gulf Stream...
speeds determined by
the energy supply. This
depends principally on
temperature of sea

A warm sea fuels

the hurricane,
cooler sea slows it.

But the hurricane

may move across
warm currents,
gaining energy OR
may mix the water,
altering its potency
as a fuel.
Alistair McNaught - 2001
Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Enter the Unpredictables

Location of landfall See Flash movie

Accelerator brakes
Upper atmosphere weather and steering (upper
atmosphere weather
patterns)

Steering
Accelerator
(warm water)
and brakes
(cold water)

US Weather Service accuracy at predicting landfall location 24

hours before landfall (km from actual landfall site):
Date 1995 1996 1997 1998
Km error134 130 145 140
Alistair McNaught - 2001
Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Enter the Unpredictables

Behaviour of landscape - eg Hurricane Mitch Oct/Nov 1998

Relief
Mountainous in region
where Mitch stalled

Slope stability
Weak volcanic ash

Drainage

Landscape Steep, dense networks -

70% roads impassable in
Nicaragua after Mitch
Vegetation

80,000 hectares/yr tropical rainforest

cleared in coastal Honduras Alistair McNaught - 2001
Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Enter the Unpredictables

Behaviour of people

Decision makers
Preparation, planning,
warning systems, emergency
shelters

Communities

People Mitch - flooding in Tipitapa

alerted by locals, first aid
contacts via locals, refugee
camp water pipe laid by locals

Individuals
Stay to protect property? Attract aid? Avoid vulnerability?

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Enter the Unpredictables

Events

Hurricane Mitch - Casitas

Volcano produces lahar due to
crater lake collapse

Alistair McNaught - 2001

Hurricanes - the predictable hazards?
Conclusions:

More predictable than they used to be;

Galveston (Texas) 8 Sep 1900 with 8 - 12000
deaths due to a 5 metre surge at night with no
warning wouldn’t happen today.

But prediction does not equate to preparedness.

Orissa Cyclone 1999 killed 20,000 people in India.
There was a 10-15 metre surge and the cyclone
stalled for 8 hours.

But 100,000 people were evacuated before the

cyclone hit.
“the dead are mostly daily wage labourers,
fishermen and women.”
Poverty is the single biggest predictor of hurricane
impact.

Alistair McNaught - 2001