Freemark Abbey Winery

SECTION 3 GROUP 6 AVNISH KAUSHIK BHAVANA BHANDARI MAUNIL SHAH SAURABH SRIVASTAV SHIVENDU MISHRA

Important Decisions to be made

Decisions to make:

First decision to be made is to Harvest or not to Harvest. Second to keep tracking the acidity level.

Probability at hand

Probability of rain is 0.5. Botrytis formation probability is 0.4. Acidity level getting below 0.7% is 0.2. Probability for the luck favoring is 0.5

Plotting the decisions and considering the probability we get the decision tree as on next slide.

Decision Tree

Final Decision
By solving the decision tree, we found that it is better

not to harvest the grapes. The EMV obtained is of Rs.3.27. Rest depends on the outcomes, which is not in control. Note: the value EMV obtained is per bottle.

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