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A Tri-Polar World:
Arvind Virmani
(views are personal)
Introduction
Index of Power: Economic, Overall Review of Our Past projections
Globalization: Major driving Force
New Developments
Effect of Global Crisis
Revised estimates: Changes Transition: Multi-polar or Bi Polar Peace: Asian Balance of Power
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Nations Power
Traditional: Industry, Population, Fiscal-Debt, Economy(Kennedy), Technology, Military, Navy, Nuclear. Complex Models: Tellis(2000) Simple model: Two level index-VIP
Foundation/base: Economy
Basic modern economics -> VIP2 Apply all countries, over millennia
Sustained high growth over decades rare. Inter-decadal growth persistence (correlation) low (0.18) Complete mean reversion in three decades (0.06) Exceptions: Asian high growth economies (Japan, NIEs, ASEAN, China, India, Vietnam) GrPcGdp > 7.5% for 30 (20) years: 2% (4.5%) ctry Per Capita GDP: Corellogram of Average decadal growth rates
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980's 1990s Countries 66 89 127 129 Note: No of countries varies because of data availability Data: Penn World Tables, ver 6.2; Chain index, const price
26/10/0711 11 April, 2007April, 2007 AV
1950s 1.0
2004 Paper
(ICRIER WP150)
Bi Polar Transition
China: GDP at PPP equals USA by 2015 Power potential 70% of USA by 2035
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Chinas Power potential = US 2030-35 Bi-polar world by 2025, Tri-polar by 2050 Association of States(EU): Virtual State (USSR)
2006 Book
(Academic Foundation)
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US-EU Crisis
Differential Impact on economies
Domestic vs. Export oriented Fiscally constrained vs. non-FC
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Fiscal Impact
Fiscal Deficits: USA, EU (Japan)
Foreign Aid, Military expenditures
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Impact on Exports
Global GDP & Import slowdown
Export oriented => Export neutral Development strategy, Growth model
E, S E Asia: FDI-Export or Public Investment-Export led growth model
1.4
India
Russia
1.2
Brazil 1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2009
2010
2012
2013
2015
2017
2018
2020
2022
2023
2025
2026
2011
2014
2016
2019
2021
2024
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2027
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2009
2010
2012
2013
2015
2017
2018
2020
2022
2023
2025
2026
2011
2014
2016
2019
2021
2024
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2027
Brazil
Overtake France and UK by 2012.
Positive effect of natural resource endowment
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Germany India
UK Russia
France
0.1 0.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
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1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
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Quadri-Polar: Unlikely
Virtual State: Unified decision making w.r.t external relations
Comecon/E block (USSR+ E Europe)
Multi-Polar Transition
Multiple descriptions: Competitive fringe
Pluri-polar, Multi-polar, A-polar, US and Rest
Globalisation
Change in relative importance of Economic, military, social elements of power
Overall Power
Actual Power: VIP=(VIP2,Strategic Assets)
Strategic-military technology/assets/capability
USA even more dominant Russia: Legacy strategic assets immobilised
0.8
0.7
UK Russia
France
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
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S2 Bipolar (USA-China)
S2a(Jelly spine) Action(appeasement)-Reaction China (declining respect/fear) expands strategic space in Asia.
G2 => Matrix (India-Asean-Japan-Korea; Medium powers, G6)
S2b(Velvet glove-iron fist) China-hard Realism(SCs core nat int) US reacts(Open seas, alliances, dvlp partners)
S3 Tri polar
S3a Jelly Spine: G2 USA-China S3b Velvet Glove: Key role of USA-India Partnership S3c China-India (Buddhist): => G3 or G4 (+EU) S3d Independent(all): Un-stable disequilibrium, danger
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Initiatives: Economic
Positive Levers: Traditional Polity Fiscal constraints on USA
Indian Aid Organization R&D & Joint Production
Health care costs (US) Energy: Thorium breeder, non-conventional sources; Use efficiency (Bldgs, AC, Refrig) Cyber Security (Indian IT)
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Counter-terror expertise
Deterrence capability: Pariah State, Non-State actor, state sponsored; finance source/channel
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References 1
From Uni-polar to Tri polar World: Multi polar Transition Paradox, Academic Foundation, New Delhi, 2009. Propelling India from Socialist Stagnation to Global Power: Growth Process, Vol. I (Policy Reform, Vol. II), Academic Foundation, 2006.
A Tripolar World, India, China & US, Lecture delivered at India
Habitat Centre on May 18, 2005. Economic Performance, Power Potential and Global Governance: Towards a New International Order, Working Paper No. 150, ICRIER, December 2004. (http://www.icrier.org/page.asp?MenuID=24&SubCatId=175&SubSubC atId=233). A Tripolar Century: USA, China and India, Working Paper No. 160, ICRIER, March, 2005. (http://www.icrier.org/page.asp?MenuID=24&SubCatId=175&SubSubC atId=233). Chinas Socialist Market Economy: Lessons Of Success, ICRIER Occasional Policy Paper, April, 2005 (http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/rpwpf.htm). VIP2: A Simple Measure of Nations (Natural) Global Power, ICRIER Occasional Paper, July, 2005(). CarnegieEIP:av
References 2
Chinas Socialist Market Economy: Lessons Of Success, Working Paper No. 178, ICRIER, December 2005. Global Power From The 18th To 21st Century: Power Potential (VIP2), Strategic Assets & Actual Power (VIP), Working Paper No. 175, ICRIER, November 2005.
http://www.icrier.org/page.asp?MenuID=24&SubCatId=175 &SubSubCatId=233. World Economy, Geopolitics and Global Strategy: Indo-US Relations in the 21st Century, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XLI No. 43-44, November 4-10, 2006, pp. 4601-4612 (http://www.epw.org.in/showArticles.php?root=2006&leaf =11&filename=10717&filetype=pdf ). Trilateral Nuclear Proliferation: Pakistans Euro-Chinese Bomb, IDSA Monograph Series No. 1, Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, New Delhi, December 2006.
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References 3
The Economic Foundations of National Power: From Multi polar to Tri-Polar World? in V. R. Raghavan (Editor), Economic Growth & National Security, Centre for Security Analysis, Chennai, 2008. Future Economic Contours of the Asia-Pacific and South Asian Region and Thier Impact on Global Security Architecture, USI National Security Lecture, 2006, in National Security, Global Strategic Architecture and Information Security, National Security Series, 2006, KW Publishers Pvt Ltd, New Delhi, 2007. Evolution of World economy and Global Power: From Unipolar to Tripolar World in Economic Diplomacy, Editor I. P. Khosla, Konarak Publishers, 2006.
Globalisation, Economic Growth and National Security chapter in, Comprehensive Security for an Emerging India, Editor AVM Kapil Kak, CAPS 2010 The Sudoku of Indias Growth, BS Books, New Delhi, 2009.
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