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ChapLer 1
1
ize of 0TC anu Exchange-Tiaueu Naikets
(Figuie ., Page )
2
Source: Bank Ior International Settlements. Chart shows total principal
amounts Ior OTC market and value oI underlying assets Ior exchange
market
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07
Size of
Market
($ trillion)
OTC
Exchange
ays Beiivatives aie 0seu
W @ hedge rlsks
W @ speculaLe (Lake a vlew Lhe fuLure dlrecLl f
Lhe markeL)
W @ lck l a arblLrage prflL
W @ chage Lhe aLure f a llablllLy
W @ chage Lhe aLure f a lvesLmeL wlLhuL
lcurrlg Lhe csLs f selllg e prLfll ad buylg
aLher
3
Foieign Exchange Quotes foi uBP,
}uly , (ee page )
4
Bid Offer
Spot 2.0558 2.0562
1-month forward 2.0547 2.0552
3-month forward 2.0526 2.0531
6-month forward 2.0483 2.0489
Foiwaiu Piice
W @he frward prlce fr a cLracL ls Lhe dellvery prlce LhaL
wuld be appllcable L Lhe cLracL lf were egLlaLed
Lday (le lL ls Lhe dellvery prlce LhaL wuld make Lhe
cLracL wrLh exacLly zer)
W @he frward prlce may be dlffereL fr cLracLs f
dlffereL maLurlLles
5
Teiminology
W @he parLy LhaL has agreed L buy has whaL ls
Lermed a lg pslLl
W @he parLy LhaL has agreed L sell has whaL ls
Lermed a shrL pslLl
6
Example (page )
W !uly 20 2007 Lhe Lreasurer f a crpraLl eLers lL a
lg frward cLracL L buy 1 mllll l slx mLhs aL a
exchage raLe f 20489
W @hls bllgaLes Lhe crpraLl L pay $2048900 fr 1 mllll
!auary 20 2008
W WhaL are Lhe psslble uLcmes?
7
Piofit fiom a
Long Foiwaiu Position
8
Protlt
Prlce ot Unoerlylng
at Maturlty, $
%
Piofit fiom a
hoit Foiwaiu Position
9
Protlt
Prlce ot Unoerlylng
at Maturlty, $
%
v v lv lv / (1+l)
W W v v
00
$2300/( $2300/(104) 104)
33
W $203481
resent Value Solution resent Value Solution
inding "n" or "i" wben one knows V and Vb inding "n" or "i" wben one knows V and Vb
W W lf e lvesLs $2000 Lday ad has accumulaLed $267643 lf e lvesLs $2000 Lday ad has accumulaLed $267643
afLer exacLly flve years whaL raLe f aual cmpud lLeresL afLer exacLly flve years whaL raLe f aual cmpud lLeresL
was eared? was eared?
eeral lrmula
lv
v v
00
(1 + l/m)
m
number f ?ears
m Cmpudlg erlds per ?ear
l ual lLeresL 8aLe
lv
m
lv aL Lhe ed f ?ear
v v
00
v f Lhe Cash llw Lday
requency of ompounding requency of ompounding
requency of ompounding Example requency of ompounding Example
W Suppse yu depslL $1000 l a accuL LhaL
pays 12 lLeresL cmpuded quarLerly w
much wlll be l Lhe accuL afLer elghL years lf
Lhere are wlLhdrawals?
v $1000
l 12/4 3 per quarLer
8 x 4 32 quarLers
Solution based on formula: Solution based on formula:
lv v (1 + l)
1000(103)
32
237310
nnuities nnuities
W Lxamples f ulLles lclude
SLudeL La aymeLs
Car La aymeLs
lsurace remlums
MrLgage aymeLs
8eLlremeL Savlgs
3 3,33:9 ,33:9 represents a series of equal payments (or
receipts) occurring over a specified number of
equidistant periods.
lv lv
33
$1000(107)
2
+ $1000(107)
1
+ $1000(107)
0
$$3213 3213
Example of an Urdinary nnuity -- V Example of an Urdinary nnuity -- V
$1,000 $1,000 $1,000
0 1 2 3 3 4
$3,215 = FVA $3,215 = FVA
3 3
End of Year
7%
$1,070
$1,145
f one saves $1,000 a year at the end of every year for three f one saves $1,000 a year at the end of every year for three
years in an account earning 7% interest, compounded years in an account earning 7% interest, compounded
annually, how much will one have at the end of the third year? annually, how much will one have at the end of the third year?
v v
33
$1000/(107)
1
+ $1000/(107)
2
+$1000/(107)
3
$262432 $262432
Example of an Urdinary nnuity -- V Example of an Urdinary nnuity -- V
$1,000 $1,000 $1,000
0 1 2 3 3 4
$2,624.32 = PVA $2,624.32 = PVA
3 3
End of Year
7%
$934.58
$873.44
$816.30
f one agrees to repay a loan by paying $1,000 a year at the f one agrees to repay a loan by paying $1,000 a year at the
end of every year for three years and the end of every year for three years and the discount rate discount rate is is
7%, how much could one borrow today? 7%, how much could one borrow today?
Suppse a lvesLmeL prmlses a cash flw f $300 l e
year $600 aL Lhe ed f Lw years ad $10700 aL Lhe ed f
Lhe Lhlrd year lf Lhe dlscuL raLe ls 3 whaL ls Lhe value f
Lhls lvesLmeL Lday?
Multiple asb lows Example Multiple asb lows Example
0 1 2 3
$500 $600 $10,700 $500 $600 $10,700
PV PV
0 0
5% 5%
Multiple asb low Solution Multiple asb low Solution
0 1 2 3
$500 $600 $10,700 $500 $600 $10,700
5%
$476.19 $476.19
$544.22 $544.22
$9,243.06 $9,243.06
$10,263.47 $10,263.47 = = PV PV
0 0
of the Multiple of the Multiple
Cash Flows Cash Flows
roblem roblem
?u musL declde beLwee $23000 l cash Lday r $30000 l
cash L be recelved Lw years frm w lf yu ca ear 8
lLeresL yur lvesLmeLs whlch ls Lhe beLLer deal?
roblem roblem
W WhaL ls Lhe value f $100 per year fr fur years wlLh Lhe flrsL
cash flw e year frm Lday lf e ls earlg 3 lLeresL
cmpuded aually? lld Lhe value f Lhese cash flws
fur years frm Lday
Nechanics of Futuies Naikets
ChapLer 2
Futuies Contiacts
W vallable a wlde rage f asseLs
W Lxchage Lraded
W SpeclflcaLls eed L be defled
W WhaL ca be dellvered
W Where lL ca be dellvered
W Whe lL ca be dellvered
W SeLLled dally
Naigins
W margl ls cash r markeLable securlLles
depslLed by a lvesLr wlLh hls r her brker
W @he balace l Lhe margl accuL ls ad[usLed L
reflecL dally seLLlemeL
W Margls mllmlze Lhe psslblllLy f a lss
Lhrugh a defaulL a cLracL
Example of a Futuies Tiaue (page
-8)
W lvesLr Lakes a lg pslLl l 2
uecember gld fuLures cLracLs !ue 3
W cLracL slze ls 100 z
W fuLures prlce ls uS$600
W margl requlremeL ls uS$2000/cLracL
(uS$4000 l LLal)
W malLeace margl ls uS$1300/cLracL
(uS$3000 l LLal)
A Possible 0utcome
Table ., Page 8
aily Cumulative Margin
Futures Gain Gain ccount Margin
Price (Loss) (Loss) Balance Call
ay (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$)
600.00 4,000
5-Jun 597.00 (600) (600) 3,400 0
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
13-Jun 593.30 (420) (1,340) 2,660 1,340
. . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . .
19-Jun 587.00 (1,140) (2,600) 2,740 1,260
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
26-Jun 592.30 260 (1,540) 5,060 0
4,000
3,000
4,000
u
t
u
r
e
s
P
r
i
c
e
(
$
p
e
r
o
z
)
Contract Maturity Month
Futuies Piices foi 0iange }uice on }anuaiy 8, :
Piices Beciease with Natuiity (Figuie .b, page )
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 ov-07
u
t
u
r
e
s
P
r
i
c
e
(
c
e
n
t
s
p
e
r
I
b
)
Contract Maturity Month
Beliveiy
W lf a fuLures cLracL ls L clsed uL befre
maLurlLy lL ls usually seLLled by dellverlg Lhe
asseLs uderlylg Lhe cLracL Whe Lhere
are alLeraLlves abuL whaL ls dellvered
where lL ls dellvered ad whe lL ls dellvered
Lhe parLy wlLh Lhe shrL pslLl chses
W few cLracLs (fr example Lhse sLck
ldlces ad Lurdllars) are seLLled l cash
ome Teiminology
W pe lLeresL Lhe LLal umber f cLracLs
uLsLadlg
W equal L umber f lg pslLls r umber f shrL pslLls
W SeLLlemeL prlce Lhe prlce [usL befre Lhe flal
bell each day
W used fr Lhe dally seLLlemeL prcess
W vlume f Lradlg Lhe umber f Lrades l 1
day
Conveigence of Futuies to pot (Figuie
., page )
Time Time
(a) (b)
Futures
Price
Futures
Price
Spot Price
Spot Price
egulation of Futuies
W 8egulaLl ls deslged L prLecL Lhe
publlc lLeresL
W 8egulaLrs Lry L preveL quesLlable
Lradlg pracLlces by elLher ldlvlduals
Lhe flr f Lhe exchage r uLslde
grups
Accounting & Tax
W ldeally hedglg prflLs (lsses) shuld be
recglzed aL Lhe same Llme as Lhe lsses
(prflLs) Lhe lLem belg hedged
W ldeally prflLs ad lsses frm speculaLl
shuld be recglzed a markLmarkeL
basls
W 8ughly speaklg Lhls ls whaL Lhe
accuLlg ad Lax LreaLmeL f fuLures l
Lhe uS ad may Lher cuLrles aLLempLs
L achleve
Foiwaiu Contiacts vs Futuies
Contiacts
Contract usually closed out
TBLE 2.3 (p. 39)
Private contract between 2 parties Exchange traded
Non-standard contract Standard contract
Usually 1 speciIied delivery date Range oI delivery dates
Settled at end oI contract Settled daily
elivery or Iinal cash
settlement usually occurs prior to maturity
FORWARDS FUTURES
Some credit risk
Virtually no credit risk
Foieign Exchange Quotes
W luLures exchage raLes are quLed as Lhe
umber f uSu per ulL f Lhe frelg currecy
W lrward exchage raLes are quLed l Lhe same
way as spL exchage raLes @hls meas LhaL
8 Lu8 uu ad nZu are quLed as uSu per
ulL f frelg currecy Lher currecles (eg
Cu ad !?) are quLed as ulLs f Lhe frelg
currecy per uSu