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This approach is based on the assumption that economic agents can chose from a portfolio of domestic and foreign assets. The assets that can be in the form of money or bonds have an expected return. The arbitrage opportunity that is attached with this return determines the exchange rate.
Interpretations of PPP
The absolute form of PPP, or the law
of one price, suggests that similar products in different countries should be equally priced when measured in the same currency. The relative form of PPP accounts for market imperfections like transportation costs, tariffs, and quotas. It states that the rate of price changes should be similar.
Suppose U.S. inflation > U.K. inflation. U.S. imports from U.K. and U.S. exports to U.K., so appreciates. This shift in consumption and the appreciation of the will continue until in the U.S., priceU.K. goods = priceU.S. goods, &
in the U.K., priceU.S. goods = priceU.K. goods.
Derivation of PPP
Assume that initially home price index (Ph) and foreign price index (Pf) are equal and the exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries = 1. Let Ih = inflation rate in the home country If = inflation rate in the foreign country ef = % change in the value of the foreign currency
Due to different rates of inflation in the two countries they become unequal. Due to inflation home price index:
Derivation of PPP
Assume that initially home price index (Ph) and foreign price index (Pf) are equal and the exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries = 1. Let Ih = inflation rate in the home country If = inflation rate in the foreign country ef = % change in the value of the foreign currency
PPP implies: Pf (1 + If ) (1 + ef ) = Ph (1 + Ih )
Derivation of PPP
Since Ph = Pf , solving for ef gives:
ef = (1 + Ih ) 1 (1 + If ) If Ih > If , ef > 0 (foreign currency
appreciates)
If Ih < If , ef < 0
depreciates)
(foreign currency
Derivation of PPP
Therefore:
ef = 1 + Ih-1-If (1 + If )
ef
Ih
If
Suppose IU.S. = 9%, IU.K. = 5%. Then PPP suggests that e 4%.
Graphically
Comparison of Annual Inflation Differentials and Exchange Rate Movements For Four Major Currencies
8.3
Monetary Approach
The Monetary Approach focuses on the supply and demand of money and the money supply process. The monetary approach hypothesizes that BOP and exchange-rate movements result from changes in money supply and demand.
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