Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
To maximize gains from events external to the organization (from the external environment)
To maximize gains from events, which are the results of actions taken by the organization
To develop policies that apply to people who are not part of the organization
To develop administrative plans and policy internal to an organization (e.g. personnel or budget) In order to perform adequate staffing to support production requirements In decision making for Facility Capacity Planning and for Capital Budgeting
Qualitative Analysis
Quantitative Analysis
Customer Survey
Causal Analysis
Executive Opinion
Delphi Method
Trend Analysis
Past Analogy
Actual Demand
Actual Demand
Time
No growth or decline trend; no seasonal variation simple (or weighted) moving average; simple exponential smoothing No growth or decline trend; seasonal variation present simple moving average
Time
Actual Demand
Actual Demand
Time
Linear growth (or decline) trend; no seasonal variation Holts double exponential smoothing
Time
Linear growth (or decline) trend; seasonal variation present Winterss triple exponential smoothing; linear regression analysis
Different Types of Demand Patterns and Oxford University Press 2007. All rights reserved. Suitable Time Series Forecasting Methods
Best fit line is extrapolated to find the forecast for the future Forecast
Best fit line with slope b y = a + b. x (Least squares method) using the past demand data
y intercept = a 0 Time
Scatter Diagram and Best Fit Line (Forecasting by Linear Regression Analysis)
Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE) Mean Forecast Error (MFE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) Tracking Signal (TS)
Oxford University Press 2007. All rights reserved.
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