Inferential Statistics & Hypothesis Testing

Heibatollah Baghi, and Mastee Badii

Objectives


Conduct one sample mean test

Using Z statistics Using t statistics

Inferential Statistics Usage



Researchers use inferential statistics to address two broad goals:

Estimate the value of population parameters Hypothesis testing

Distribution of Coin Tosses

Possible Outcomes Toss No. and Probabilities 1 H=.500 2 HH=.250 3 HHH=.125 4 HHHH=063 5 HHHHH=.031 6 HHHHHH=.016 7 HHHHHHH=.008 8 HHHHHHHH=.004 9 HHHHHHHHH=.002 10 HHHHHHHHHH=.001 Total Probability 1.000 1.000

T=.500 HT=.250 TH=.250 TT=.250 HHT=.125 TTH=.125 TTT=.125 HHHT=.063 HHTT=.063 HTTT=.063 TTTT=.063

If you see 10 heads in a row, is it a fair coin?

Sample & Population



Think of any sequence of throws as a sample from all possible throws Think of all possible throws as the entire population. population. OneOne-Sample Inferential Tests estimate the probability that a sample is representative of the total population (within +/- ~2 standard +/deviations of the mean, or the middle 95% of the distribution).

Logic of Hypothesis Testing



Is the value observed consistent with the expected distribution?

On average, 100 coin tosses should lead to 50/50 chance of heads. Some coin tosses will be outliers, giving outliers, significantly different results. Are differences significant or merely random variations? variations? Statistics is the art of making sense of distributions

Logic of Hypothesis Testing

The further the observed value is from the mean of the expected distribution, the more significant the difference

10

10 /9 0 20 /8 0 30 /7 0 40 /6 0 50 /5 0 60 /4 0 70 /3 0 80 /2 0 90 /1 0 99 /0 1

What about this point?

What about this point?

10 8 6 4 2 0
10/90 20/80 30/70 40/60 50/50 60/40 70/30 80/20 90/10 99/01

10

Is this point part of the distribution?

10 /9 0 20 /8 0 30 /7 0 40 /6 0 50 /5 0 60 /4 0 70 /3 0 80 /2 0 90 /1 0 99 /0 1

Depends on location

Mean Variance
10 6 8

It is a chance event
0 2 4

10 8

10

2 0

Probability of Membership in a Distribution

10 /9 0 20 /8 0 30 /7 0 40 /6 0 50 /5 0 60 /4 0 70 /3 0 80 /2 0 90 /1 0 99 /0 1

10 /9 0 20 /8 0 30 /7 0 40 /6 0 50 /5 0 60 /4 0 70 /3 0 80 /2 0 90 /1 0 99 /0 1

10 /9 0 20 /8 0 30 /7 0 40 /6 0 50 /5 0 60 /4 0 70 /3 0 80 /2 0 90 /1 0 99 /0 1

OneOne-Sample Tests


We set a standard beyond which results would be rare (outside the expected sampling error) error) We observe a sample and infer information about the population If the observation is outside the standard, we reject the hypothesis that the sample is representative of the population

10 8 6 4 2 0
10 /9 0 20 /8 0 30 /7 0 40 /6 0 50 /5 0 60 /4 0 70 /3 0 80 /2 0 90 /1 0 99 /0 1

10 8 6 4 2 0
10 /9 0 20 /8 0 30 /7 0 40 /6 0 50 /5 0 60 /4 0 70 /3 0 80 /2 0 90 /1 0 99 /0 1

10 8 6 4 2 0
10 /9 0 20 /8 0 30 /7 0 40 /6 0 50 /5 0 60 /4 0 70 /3 0 80 /2 0 90 /1 0 99 /0 1

Random Sampling


A simple random sampling procedure is one in which every possible sample of n objects is equally likely to be chosen. The principle of randomness in the selection of the sample members provides some protection against the sample unrepresentative of the population. If the population were repeatedly sampled in this fashion, no particular subgroup would be over represented in the sample.

Sampling Distribution


The concept of a sampling distribution, allows us to determine the probability that the particular sample obtained will be unrepresentative. On the basis of sample information, we can make inference about the parent population.

Sampling Distribution


Sampling Error.
No sample will have the exact same mean and standard deviation as the population

Sampling distribution of the mean

In research sampling error is often unknown since we do not have the population parameters A distribution of means of several different samples of our population Less widely distributed than the population Usually Normal

Population of IQ scores, 10-year olds

=100 =16

n = 64
Sample

Sample 2

Sample 3

Etc

X 1 ! 103.70

X 2 ! 98.58

X 3 ! 100.11

Is sample 2 a likely representation of our population?

Distribution of Sample Means

1.

2.

3.

The mean of a sampling distribution is identical to mean of raw scores in the population () If the population is Normal, the distribution of sample means is also Normal If the population is not Normal, the distribution of sample means approaches Normal distribution as the size of sample on which it is based gets larger

Central Limit Theorem

Standard Error of the Mean



The standard deviation of means in a sampling distribution is known as the standard error of the mean. It can be calculated from the standard deviation of observations

1.

The larger our sample size, the smaller our standard error

Sample of observations

Entire population of observations

Random selection

Statistic
X

Parameter =?

Statistical inference

Estimation Procedures


Point estimates
For example mean of a sample of 25 patients


No information regarding probability of accuracy

Interval estimates Estimate a range of values that is likely



Confidence interval between two limit values The degree of confidence depends on the probability of including the population mean

When Sample size is small

_
X

95% CI = X+ tS _
A constant from Student t Distribution that depends on confidence interval and sample size

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
    

Hygiene procedures are effective in preventing cold. State 2 hypotheses: Null: H0 : Hand-washing has no effect on Handbacteria counts. Alternative: Ha : Hand-washing reduces Handbacteria. The null hypothesis is assumed true: i.e., the defendant is assumed to be innocent.

TWO TYPES OF ERROR

True Reject H0 Fail to Reject H0 error correct decision False correct decision error

Alpha & Beta Errors

Decision Reject H0 Fail to Reject H0 1Ho is True Ho is False 1-

Two Types of Error in Admission to ICU



Correct decisions
Patients admitted to ICU who would have failed if otherwise Patients denied admission who do fine in step down unit

Errors
Patient admitted who does not need to be there Patient denied admission who needs to be there

Two Types of Error



Alpha:
Probability of Type I Error P (Rejecting Ho when Ho is true)

Beta:
Probability of Type II Error P (Failing to reject Ho when Ho is false)

Power & Confidence Level



Power
1Probability of rejecting Ho when Ho is false

Confidence level
1Probability of failing to reject Ho when Ho is true

Steps in Test of Hypothesis

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Determine the appropriate test Establish the level of significance: Determine whether to use a one tail or two tail test Calculate the test statistic Determine the degree of freedom Compare computed test statistic against a tabled value

1. Determine Appropriate Test

   

Level of measurement Number of groups being compared Sample size Extent to which assumption for parametric tests have been met
Relatively Normal distribution Approximately interval level variable

2. Establish Level of Significance

    

is a predetermined value The = = = convention .05 .01 .01

3. Determine Whether to Use One or Two Tailed Test



If the alternative hypothesis specifies direction of the test, then one tailed Otherwise, two tailed
Most cases

4. Calculating Test Statistics



For one sample tests, use Z test statistic if population is Normal, W is known, or if sample size is large For one sample tests, use T static if population distribution is not known or if sample size is small (less than 30)

X ! 265 W 50 Wx ! ! ! 8.33 n 36 zc ! XQ Wx zc !  1.80 zc ! 265  250 8.33

5. Determine Degrees of Freedom



Number of components that are free to vary about a parameter Df = Sample size Number of parameters estimated
Df is n-1 for one sample test of mean n-

6. Compare the Computed Test Statistic Against a Tabled Value

Test statistic Theoretical distribution Table Areas of the Normal distribution for Z statistic Normal distribution selected z scores Critical values of T statistic Student t-distribution Student t distribution

Example of Testing Statistical Hypotheses About When is Known

(Large Sample Test for Population Mean).

Research Question
Does Home Schooling Affect Educational Outcomes?

Statistical Hypotheses


Dr. Tate, a researcher at GMU decided to conduct a study to explore this question. He found out that every fourth-grade student fourthattending school in Virginia takes CAT. Scores of CAT are normally distributed with = 250 and = 50. Home schooled children are not required to take this test.

Statistical Hypotheses


Dr. Tate selects a random sample of 36 home schooled fourth graders and has each child complete the test. (It would be too expensive and time-consuming to test timethe entire population of home-schooled homefourthfourth-grade students in the sate.) Step 1: Specify Hypotheses
H0: = 250 Ha: > 250 = 0.05

Calculated Z


Select the sample, calculate the necessary sample statistics

n=36 =50
X ! 265 W 50 Wx ! ! ! 8.33 n 36 XQ zc ! Wx zc !  1.80 265  250 zc ! 8.33

Critical Z


Determine z
E = 0.05 one sided CI of 95% Refer to the Z table and find the corresponding Z score: Z = 1.65

Make Decisions Regarding Ho



Because the calculated z is greater than the critical z, Ho is rejected. 1.80 > 1.65 and Ha is accepted The mean of the population of homehomeschool fourth graders is not 250.

Alternative Steps


Step 1: Specify Hypotheses

Ho: = 250 Ha: > 250 = .05

Step 2: Select the sample, calculate sample statistics n=36 =50

X ! 265 W 50 Wx ! ! ! 8.33 n 36 XQ Wx zc !  1.80 zc ! zc ! 265  250 8.33

Using P value to Reject Hypothesis



Step 3: Determine the p-value . A z of p+1.80 corresponds to a one tailed probability of 0.036. Step 4: Make decision regarding Ho. Because the p-value of 0.036 is less than p=0.05 H0 is rejected. The mean of the population of home-school fourth graders is not 250. home-

DECISION RULES


In terms of z scores: If Zc > Z Reject H0 In terms of p-value: pIf p value < Reject H0

The One-sample Z Test One

OneOne-Sample tests of significance are used to compare a sample mean to a (hypothesized) population mean and determine how likely it is that the sample came from that population. We will determine the extent to which they occur by chance. We will compare the probability associated with our statistical results (i.e. probability of chance) with a predetermined alpha level.

The One-sample Z Test One

If the probability is equal to or less than our alpha level, we will reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the difference is not due to chance. If the probability of chance is greater than our alpha level, we will retain the null hypothesis and conclude that difference is due to chance.

Take Home Lesson

Procedures for Hypothesis Testing and Use of These Procedures in One Sample Mean Test for Normal Distribution