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Interpreting Performance Data

Expected Outcomes
Understand the terms mean, median, mode, standard deviation Use these terms to interpret performance data supplied

Measures of Central Tendency


Mean the average score Median the value that lies in the middle after ranking all the scores Mode the most frequently occurring score

Measures of Central Tendency


Which measure of Central Tendency should be used?

Measures of Central Tendency

The measure you choose should give you a good indication of the typical score in the sample or population.

Measures of Central Tendency


Mean the most frequently used but is sensitive to extreme scores

e.g. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mean = 5.5 (median = 5.5)

e.g. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 20
Mean = 6.5 (median = 5.5)

e.g. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
Mean = 14.5 (median = 5.5)

Measures of Central Tendency


Median is not sensitive to extreme scores use it when you are unable to use the mean because of extreme scores

Measures of Central Tendency


Mode does not involve any calculation or ordering of data use it when you have categories (e.g. occupation)

A Distribution Curve
English

300

250

Mean: 54
200

Frequency

Median: 56
150

Mode: 63
100 50 Mean = 53.78 Std. Dev. = 19.484 N = 4,253 0 20 40 60 80 100

English

The Normal Distribution Curve

In everyday life many variables such as height, weight, shoe size and exam marks all tend to be normally distributed, that is, they all tend to look like the following curve.

The Normal Distribution Curve


0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 0 20

Mean, Median, Mode

40

60

80

100

It is bell-shaped and symmetrical about the mean The mean, median and mode are equal It is a function of the mean and the standard deviation

Variation or Spread of Distributions


Measures that indicate the spread of scores: Range Standard Deviation

Variation or Spread of Distributions


Range It compares the minimum score with the maximum score Max score Min score = Range It is a crude indication of the spread of the scores because it does not tell us much about the shape of the distribution and how much the scores vary from the mean

Variation or Spread of Distributions


Standard Deviation It tells us what is happening between the minimum and maximum scores It tells us how much the scores in the data set vary around the mean It is useful when we need to compare groups using the same scale

Calculating a Mean and a Standard Deviation


Data x 10 20 30 40 50 150 30 Deviation x - Mean -20 -10 0 10 20 0 0 Absolute Deviation |x - Mean| 20 10 0 10 20 60 12 Squared Deviation (x-Mean) 400 100 0 100 400 1000 200 Variance 14.1421356

Sums Means

Standard deviation =

Variance

Interpreting Distributions
0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Mean

= 50

Std Dev = 15

2% 14%

34%

34% 14%

2%

scores

5 -3 0%

20 -2 2%

35 -1 16%

50 0 50%

65 +1 84%

80 +2

95 +3
sd rank

98% 100%

Interpreting Distributions
Mean S.d.
0.045 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

School A 50 10

School B 60 10

School C 70 10
0

The Z-score
The z-score is a conversion of the raw score into a standard score based on the mean and the standard deviation.
z-score = Raw score Mean Standard Deviation
Example Mean = 55 Standard Deviation = 15 Raw Score = 65 z-score 65 55 15 = 0.67

Converting z-scores into Percentiles


Use table provided to convert the z-score into a percentile.
z-score = 0.67

Percentile = 74.86% (from table provided) Interpretation: 75% of the group scored below this score.

Comparing School Performance with National Performance


Mean S.d. National Mean 55 10 School A 60 15 School B 40 15

0.045 Z-score for Mean of School A = (60 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0

55)/10 = 0.2

A z-score of 0.2 is equivalent to a percentile of 57.93% on a national basis Z-score for Mean of School B = (40 55)/10 = -1.5

A z-score of 1.5 is equivalent to a percentile of -20 0 20 40 60 100 120 (100-93.32)%, that is, 6.68%! 80

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Suppose we measured the right foot length of 30 teachers and graphed the results. Assume the first person had a 10 inch foot. We could create a bar graph and plot that person on the graph. If our second subject had a 9 inch foot, we would add her to the graph. As we continued to plot foot lengths, a 8 pattern would begin to emerge. 7 6 5 4 Your next 3 mouse 2 click will 1 display a
Number of People with that Shoe Size

9 10 11 12 13 14
Length of Right Foot

new screen.

Notice how there are more people (n=6) with a 10 inch right foot than any other length. Notice also how as the length becomes larger or smaller, there are fewer and fewer people with that measurement. This is a characteristics of many variables that we measure. There is a tendency to have most measurements in the middle, and fewer as we approach the high and low extremes. If we were to connect the top of each bar, we 8 would create a frequency polygon. 7 6 5 4 Your next 3 mouse 2 click will 1 display a
Number of People with that Shoe Size

9 10 11 12 13 14
Length of Right Foot

new screen.

You will notice that if we smooth the lines, our data almost creates a bell shaped curve.

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Length of Right Foot

Number of People with that Shoe Size

You will notice that if we smooth the lines, our data almost creates a bell shaped curve. This bell shaped curve is known as the Bell Curve or the Normal Curve. 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Length of Right Foot

Number of People with that Shoe Size

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Whenever you see a normal curve, you should imagine the bar graph within it.

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Points on a Quiz

Number of Students

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The mean, mode, andscores for 51all fall on the same Now lets look at quiz median will students. value in a normal distribution.
12
12, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 20, 20, 20, 20, 21, 21, 22

13 13 12+13+13+14+14+14+14+15+15+15+15+15+15+16+16+16+16+16+16+16+16+ 17+17+17+17+17+17+17+17+17+18+18+18+18+18+18+18+18+19+19+19+19+ 14 14 14 14 19+ 19+20+20+20+20+ 21+21+22 = 867 15 15 15 15 15 15

867 / 51 = 17

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 13 14

Number of Students

21 21 22

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Points on a Quiz

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Normal distributions (bell shaped) are a family of distributions that have the same general shape. They are symmetric (the left side is an exact mirror of the right side) with scores more concentrated in the middle than in the tails. Examples of normal distributions are shown to the right. Notice that they differ in how spread out they are. The area under each curve is the same.
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Mathematical Formula for Height of a Normal Curve The height (ordinate) of a normal curve is defined as:

where Q is the mean and W is the standard deviation, T is the constant 3.14159, and e is the base of natural logarithms and is equal to 2.718282. x can take on any value from -infinity to +infinity. f(x) is very close to 0 if x is more than three standard deviations from the mean (less than -3 or greater than +3).
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This information is not needed for EPSY341. It is provided for your information only.

If your data fits a normal distribution, approximately 68% of your subjects will fall within one standard deviation of the mean. Approximately 95% of your subjects will fall within two standard deviations of the mean. Over 99% of your subjects will fall within three standard deviations of the mean.

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Normal Distributions
Theory and Usage

Density Curve
A density curve is a smooth function meant to approximate a histogram. The area under a density curve is one.

Density Curve

Density Curves: Properties

Density Curves
Mean of density curve is point at which the curve would balance. For symmetric density curves, balance point (mean) and the median are the same.

Characterization
A normal distribution is bell-shaped and symmetric. The distribution is determined by the mean mu, Qand the standard deviation sigma, W. The mean mu controls the center and sigma controls the spread.

Definitions
Mean is located in center, or mode of normal curve. The standard deviation is the distance from the mean to the inflection point of the normal curve, the place where the curve changes from concave down to concave up.

Construction
A normal curve is drawn by first drawing a normal curve. Next, place the mean, mu on the curve. Then place sigma on curve by placing the segment from the mean to the upper (or lower) inflection point on your curve. From this information, the scale on the horizontal axis can be placed on the graph.

Examples
Draw normal curve with mean=mu=100, and standard deviation = sigma = 10. Draw normal curve with mean = 20, sigma=2.

68-95-99.7 Rule
For any normal curve with mean mu and standard deviation sigma: 68 percent of the observations fall within one standard deviation sigma of the mean. 95 percent of observation fall within 2 standard deviations. 99.7 percent of observations fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean.

Example Questions
If mu=30 and sigma=4, what are the values (a, b) around 30 such that 95 percent of the observations fall between these values? If mu=40 and sigma=5, what are the bounds (a, b) such that 99.7 percent of the values fall between these values?

Standard Normal Distribution


The standard normal distribution has mean = 0 and standard deviation sigma=1.

Standard persons. Start with the lowest value, then at value 5 Normal Distribution Suppose take height of
feet---5 feet (peek no. of persons) then as height increases, no. of people ( frequency ) decreases and at height 8 feet no one is there.

120

130

140

150cm

160

170

180

So, 68.3 % people b/w 140 160 cm height 95.4 % people b/w 130 170 cm height 99.7 % people b/w 120 180 cm height

Theoretical probability distribution


In any test, a quantity p is found out It gives the probability : a. The difference b/w the two groups b. Because of sampling variation P values are calculated according to : a. The sample size b. The difference b/w the means of control group and experimental group c. The SD of the distribution

Theoretical probability distribution Theoretical probability distribution of the The smaller the p value, the more significant the findings
study. The probability is expressed as proportional The concept that all men are sure to die is expressed as 100% or P = 1.0, all other probabilities are measured with this standard 100% chance of death, p = 1.0 1% chance of death , p = 0.01 5% chance of death, p = 0.05 1 chance of death in 1000, p = 0.001 1 chance of death in 500, p = 0.002 1 chance of death in 100, p = 0.01 P < 0.05 means 5/100 e.g. We have seen 100 cases, out of which 5 are missed P < 0.01 means 1/100

Confidence Interval Estimation: Single Sample Means and Proportions

Estimation Process
Population
Mean, Q, is unknown Sample

Random Sample
Mean X = 50

I am 95% confident that Q is between 40 & 60.

Population Parameters Estimated


Estimate Population Parameter... Mean Q Proportion Variance Difference p W
1 2

with Sample Statistic _ X ps s


2 1 2

Q - Q

_ _ x - x

Confidence Interval Estimation




Provides Range of Values




Based on Observations from 1 Sample

Gives Information about Closeness


to Unknown Population Parameter

Stated in terms of Probability


Never 100% Sure

Elements of Confidence Interval Estimation


A Probability That the Population Parameter Falls Somewhere Within the Interval. Sample Confidence Interval Statistic

Confidence Limit (Lower)

Confidence Limit (Upper)

Confidence interval
1. 2.

3. 

How researchers describe the probability of the statistical results being correct. Indicates a range of value within which the parameter of population have a probability of lying . Researchers usually use a 95% t0 99% confidence interval : A 95% confidence interval indicates a probability that the researchers is wrong 5 times in 100 . By using 99 % confidence interval the researchers may be wrong 1% of the time.

Confidence interval
An interval estimate for a population parameter:
FORMULA Point estimate factor x standard Q  X error

Factors is some number to be looked in suitable table Standard error is mathematical expression related to parameter in question
For mean _ CI=x s factor x n

As long as you have a large sample.


A confidence interval for a population mean is:

s x s Z n
where the average, standard deviation, and n depend on the sample, and Z depends on the confidence level.

If you have a small sample... sample...


Replace the Z value with a t value to get:

s x s t n
where t comes from Students t distribution, and depends on the sample size through the degrees of freedom n-1.

Standard error


When repeated samples are taken from the same population, they will not yield the same values for the different parameters because of sampling variations. The measure of such variation is called as standard error SD of observation in the sample

S.E =
No. of observation in the sample

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