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Chapter 7
Random Variables: Working with Uncertain Numbers
2/10/2012
Slide 7-2
Random Variable
The number is the observation of the random variable The random variable is the meaning of the number
The observed value is 17 for the random variable
Last weeks warranty returns (number of customers)
Examples
Todays stock market close The number of defective parts produced today Next quarters sales
Summaries:
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Slide 7-3
{ {
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Slide 7-4
Mean (expected value) of random variable X Q = Sum of Value v Prob of Value = E(X) = XP(X)
Gives a typical or central value of the random variable
( X Q ) 2 P( X )
Tells about how far from expected this random variable will be
Slide 7-5
Great
10 Profit ($millions)
Slide 7-7
Binomial Distribution
e.g., Interview 50 random customers
How many like the new product? 0, 1, 2, , 49, or 50
X is binomial if it is the number of occurrences of some event, out of n trials, provided that
The probability T is the same for all trials, and The trials are independent of one another
so that each trial brings new, independent information
Slide 7-8
Binomial Probabilities
0.4
A discrete distribution
Skewed if T is close to 0
T=0.05, n=25
0.2 0 0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 5 10 15 20 25
T=0.5, n=25
10
15
20
25
Skewed if T is close to 1
T=0.9, n=25
10
15
20
25
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Slide 7-9
Shortcut to find mean and standard deviation quickly for binomial random variables (X or p)
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Slide 7-10
Draw a random sample of n=200 from the days production Suppose that T = 7% of this production is defective
Mean
QX = nT = 200v0.07 = 14
Expect to see 14 defects, on average
Std. Dev.
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Slide 7-11
Example: probability that exactly a = 2 of your n = 6 major customers will call tomorrow (assuming that T=0.25 is the probability that each one will call)
6 P( X ! 2) ! 0.25 2 (1 0.25 )62 2 ! 15 v 0.0625 v 0.316406 ! 0.297
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Slide 7-12
Normal Distribution
A special continuous distribution (not discrete) For every mean Q and (positive) standard deviation W there is a normal distribution
The mean Q moves the curve left and right The standard deviation W widens and narrows the curve
W Q
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Slide 7-13
W W Q
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W W Q
Slide 7-14
-3
-2
-1
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Slide 7-15
Draw Picture
-3
-2
-1
0 1 0.60
Slide 7-16
Then
Binomial probabilities for X are close to normal probabilities with
Q = QX = nT Q = Qp = T
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W = WX = nT(1T) W = Wp = T(1T)/n
Slide 7-17
( XQ W
<
199.5220 9.9499
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Slide 7-18
Prob
XQX W
>
232.5220 9.9499