Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

c
81.78

-b(c) (a)

-a78.10

(b) d

It still looks like the wave down from 81.78 has further to develop -- it does not look like a completed wave form at the 78.10 low. So, were likely seeing an expanded flat -b- wave. It would not be a surprise to see the market rally to the mid 80s before taking a larger leg down. 80.53 would be the 61.8% retrace of the proposed -a- wave and 138.2% of (a) = (c), a nice target for an expanded flat correction.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold ~ Weekly Continuation

Whenever a market meanders through a well-defined trendline as if it didnt even exist, its typically a sign of a triangle development. Thats what Gold did in the circled area. So, were going to stick with this idea--if its a triangle, it will be either a neutral triangle that ends near the a-wave bottom or it will be an expanding triangle where the d-wave high will exceed the b-wave peak and the e-wave will break below the c-wave low. An expanding triangle would be quite the whipsaw.

COPIED from 2/26/12

e a c

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold ~ Daily Continuation

In the meantime the trading philosophy has been to stay with the trend as long as possible but to be continually raising the stop loss levels for bulls/longs. That concept has worked well as the market has continually held minimum support levels for several weeks now. The 23.6% retrace has been a very good level to use as first level support and it should continue to be used. A break below $1,724 should stop out long positions. For those looking for a tighter stop, please consider $1,761, the previous shorter term peak.

COPIED from 2/26/12

b

1,761

a c

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold ~ Daily Continuation

The tighter stop at $1,761 served the longs well in terms of loss avoidance. That level now becomes primary resistance as gold dropped like a stone last week. It did manage to hold the 38.2% of the entire advance but it seems like the yellow metal is just in the beginning stage of a multi-week correction that should take it down to $1,626 or lower.

b d

1,761 = resistance

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Current Rally with Weekly Support

As the Talking Heads sang Same as it ever was... The market continued its grind higher. One interesting thing to observe is that the S&P 500 is struggling a bit to get back to the upper end of the trend channel--this is usually a signal of a market thats losing its energy. Bulls/Longs should raise stops yet again because when this channel breaks, it should be fairly violent, a la the Gold market his week.

This would be support area on a breakdown.

Consider using 1352 and 1337 for first and second levels of support. 1337 would be a 23.6% retrace of the entire last move--a level that also aligns with prior short term support.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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