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THIS IS NOT AN OFFERING OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE AN INTEREST IN THE STOLLER ARCH FUND, L.P. (THE FUND) ANY SUCH OFFER OR SOLICITATION WILL ONLY BE MADE TO QUALIFIED INVESTORS BY MEANS OF A CONFIDENTIAL PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM AND ONLY IN THOSE JURISDICTIONS WHERE PERMITTED BY LAW. AN INVESTMENT IN THE FUND IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. OPPORTUNITIES FOR WITHDRAWAL, REDEMPTION AND TRANSFERABILITY OF INTERESTS ARE RESTRICTED, SO INVESTORS MAY NOT HAVE ACCESS TO CAPITAL WHEN IT IS NEEDED. THERE IS NO SECONDARY MARKET FOR THE INTERESTS AND NONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FEES AND EXPENSES CHARGED IN CONNECTION WITH THIS INVESTMENT MAY BE HIGHER THAN THE FEES AND EXPENSES OF OTHER INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES AND MAY OFFSET PROFITS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE GIVEN THAT THE INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE WILL BE ACHIEVED OR THAT AN INVESTOR WILL RECEIVE A RETURN OF ALL OR PART OF HIS OR HER INVESTMENT. INVESTMENT RESULTS MAY VARY SUBSTANTIALLY OVER ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD.
Epiphany I: A share of stock is fractional ownership in a business and I could use my business experience to help guide my investments.
Fractional Ownership
Ticker Symbol
Im a better investor because Im a businessman, and a better businessman because Im an investor Warren Buffett
price ratios
capital allocation
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Idea Sources
Reading, Reading, Reading (Value Line,
Barrons, Internet)
Other Fund Managers Headlines (do the opposite). Watch List Multi-Year Conferences/Presentations
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Service Providers
Prime Broker: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Administrator: Michael Liccar & Co.
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Contact Information
Steven Stoller Managing Director, Stoller Capital LLC, the General Partner for the Stoller Arch Fund Steven@StollerCapital.com 404-822-4252 cell StollerCapital.com <investor site> Username: stoller (lowercase) Password: capital (lowercase)
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Petrobank (PBG.TO)
OR An undervalued business with lots of optionality
Stoller Arch Fund 17
PBG Petrobank
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Success in ongoing E&P activity (99%) Technological leaders/innovators Focused on capital allocation and creating shareholder value. They own 10% of the business as well. Business is inexpensive relative to peers Business sells for less than the value of their assets
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Management has history of creating value in excess of the price of oil Improvements in drilling process = more extraction and higher IRR by lowering costs
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Petrobank
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(PBN = $ cd 18.24)
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At current market prices, buying a share of Petrobank give you a share of Petrobakken plus the other assets for $1.44
Petrobank (PBG.TO) Share Price CD$ times share weight Value per PBG share $20.28 1.00 $20.28 Petrobakken (PBN.TO) $18.24 1.03 $18.79
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Petrobank
Archon (100%)
Technology
Optionality
$ 1.44
Stoller Arch Fund 24
Petrobank
Archon (100%)
Technology
Optionality
$ 1.44
Stoller Arch Fund 25
Petrobakken as a business: What is it worth today? How good are they are getting value from their assets (worth tomorrow)?
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Petrobakken Assets
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Largest Assets are well established with low Developmental and Geological Risk
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NPV 10 of proved and provable divided by the share count less debt land value value of risked inventory Share is worth
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At current oil and share prices, PBN discount to Risked NAV is approximately 75%
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Bilateral Fraccing Increased NPV per Well from $2.9 to $3.6 MM with IRR increasing from 51% 98%, or payback in one year.
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The Cardium purchases were timely You cannot buy land in that area anymore Oil prices have increased Alberta royalty changes improved profits by $1MM per well.
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Value of options
Oil Price increase holds Value of unrisked inventory Value of improved drilling
$4 0 to $13 0 to $4
Enhanced recovery
0 to $4
0 to $25
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Petrobank
Archon (100%)
Technology
Optionality
$1.44 ?
Stoller Arch Fund 39
Petrobank
Archon (100%)
Technology
Optionality
$1.44 ?
Stoller Arch Fund 40
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1. Oil analyst estimates NPV of $786M, or $7-$8 per share using current SAGD drilling methods. 2. Private sale of adjoining land at low end of comp, or $1.50 per BOE, or $9-$10 per share 3. Recovery with THAI, $11-$18 per share
Reserve Recovery Method Size 1 SAGD 2 SAGD 3 THAI 3 THAI 1.5 B 1.5 B 1.785 B 1.785 B
Value at % MM BOE $1.50/B recovery recoverable OE $MM Per share $786 45% 45% 70% 664 803 1250 $1,012 $1,204 $1,875 $ 7.42 $9.55 $11.36 $17.69
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Petrobank
Archon (100%)
Technology
Optionality
$4-$8
Stoller Arch Fund
?
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Petrobank
Archon (100%)
Technology
Optionality
$4-$8
Stoller Arch Fund
?
44`
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THAI benefits are incremental and discreet. Not all have to work.
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Blue Sky value of THAI licensing is worth more than the whole company. But this a longshot however Per Deal
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Petrobank
Archon (100%)
Technology
Optionality
$4-$8
Stoller Arch Fund
0 to $$
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What Can Blow Up? How To Buy? What Can Blow Up: Oil prices Reserves overstated/Depletion Operation Errors
How To Buy:
Petrobank
Petrobank less Oil Petrobank less Petrobakken Petrobakken (5% dividend)
Stoller Arch Fund 51
Contact Information
Steven Stoller Managing Director, Stoller Capital LLC, the General Partner for the Stoller Arch Fund Steven@StollerCapital.com 404-822-4252 cell StollerCapital.com <investor site> Username: stoller (lowercase) Password: capital (lowercase)
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