Traffic forecasts

Ankara November 2011

Questions

How do we estimate how much traffic will move by rail?

What are the main factors that will affect the amount of traffic carried

David Lupton and Associates Ltd

Traffic Forecasts
The basic approach for passenger and freight forecasts is the same
The total market is established from official sources, industry information and other research The market is segmented based on its characteristics Future traffic growth is estimated looking at past trends and expected developments The rail share is estimated by considering the relative attractiveness of the rail mode in each market segment

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Freight forecasts

Railways cater for a few big freight customers

... the best way to understand their needs is through interviews with shippers and customers

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Opportunities for Freight

Existing traffic
Potential for Containers Potential for Minerals Other traffic

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Existing rail traffic

Railway operators normally keep comprehensive station to station data

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Traffic on competitors
Import-export freight movements can be obtained from customs data
Actual origin-destination may not show Often by value rather than tonnage

Road freight is notoriously difficult to obtain

Sometimes there are national transport studies Surveys may be able to be used
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Opportunities for Freight

Existing traffic Potential for Containers Potential for Minerals Other traffic
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Container Traffic

Import export and intermodal containers provide one of the best opportunities for rail to compete in the high-value goods market

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Container Economics

Hypothetical rail and feeder ship operations ex Salalah

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Opportunities for Freight

Existing trade within CGG
Potential for Containers Potential for Minerals

Other traffic

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Minerals
Minerals are normally a potential market for rail Most minerals are low value per tonne
transport costs are a large proportion of the delivered cost

Two markets
Local consumption (gypsum, limestone, iron ore) Minerals for export
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Mineral Economics

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Opportunities for Freight

Existing traffic
Potential for Containers Potential for Minerals

Other traffic

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Other traffic
Other bulk traffic
Aluminum and steel products Bitumen Cement Fuel

General traffic
Generally proportional to population Road has advantages even on long hauls but rail can compete in some markets
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Scenarios
To cope with uncertainty, traffic can be classified in several ways:
Existing (on rail) Existing (on truck or ship) Depends on new developments (eg minerals) Depends on economic conditions

Ideally forecasts should be prepared to enable different combinations of assumptions to be tested

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Growth Rate
Freight traffic is closely related to economic activity
Elasticity of freight traffic to GDP normally close to 1.0

Import export freight usually grows faster if the economy is developing

Can be up to double the national growth rate Higher growth cannot be assumed to last for ever!

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Passenger forecasts
Future rail traffic will come from :
Evolution of existing rail traffic

Diverted traffic from other modes

Generated traffic (people who were not travelling before)

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Existing traffic - rail

Railway operators usually have good data on station to station travel
May not reflect true origins and destinations

If the proposed service is significantly different (eg high speed) other country experience can be a guide to how the market will change

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Existing traffic - air

Airline data may be commercially sensitive but airports normally publish arrivals and departures In the Gulf we estimated air travel by building a gravity model from published statistics and validated it against airline frequencies

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Existing traffic - road

Road data is generally the most difficult to obtain Customs data can help with international travel Roadside interview surveys are suitable for car travel but can be difficult for buses
Bus timetables give some indication

Others may have undertaken national transport studies

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Committed and expected developments

Economic growth
Passenger traffic generally increases slightly faster than the growth in GDP/person.

Population growth
Passenger traffic generally increases in proportion to population growth

New development s
In the Gulf study a new city of 100,000 people was expected in Duqm, midway between Muscat and Salalah
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Rail share - traffic drivers

Traffic is dependent on:

Travel time Time to access rail station Service frequency Fare : lower rail fares increase rail traffic but decrease revenues

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Forecasting model
Market Share and Travel Distances
120% 100%

Market Share

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Travel Distance (km)

Car Bus Air Rail

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The model
Existing Traffic database : -OD Matrix for each mode Socio-economics database : -GDP growth -Value of Time

-Travel Times and Costs

Passenger Traffic Forecast

-Evolution from base to reference situation

-Modal Choice Structure and Parameters

-Assignment Procedure on the rail missions -Evolution after project completion Outputs for other models : -Rail OD Matrix, trains-h, trains-km, rolling stock, revenues
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