S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support COPIED from 3/11/12

The break of the clear trendline did generate strong selling last week, but the market FAILED to get below the second level of support at 1337, the 23.6% retracement. Not only that, but the strong bounce back to close the week makes the latest move look like the beginning of a triangle pattern at the top--not really a bearish development. Basis this triangle concept, 1337 and 1378 should serve as the band of support/resistance in the week ahead. Breaks of those levels, particularly the 1337, should lead to increased volatility in the direction of the break.
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

g

The wave labeling here is a guess. Its still too difficult to decipher with much confidence

c d a b

1202

Since the rally began at 1202, the market has only witnessed one minor 23.6% retracement which then led the way to last weeks huge snap back rally. The persistent and powerful nature of this advance reinforces the idea that this is a thrust out of a triangle that concluded at 1202. Weve been employing the concept of raising stops every week to either stay with length and/or avoid shorting until a confirmed breakdown. Obviously, weve seen not a whiff a breakdown yet. Consider using 1378 as a first level support. The market clearly broke out above that previous resistance point, so it should now serve as support. The 1440 resistance point comes from the 85% retrace of the entire decline (2008-2009) and also aligns with longer term class chart resistance. 1440 stands out enough that it should elicit at some selling from the technical trading crowd.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily Longer Term Count COPIED from 3/11/12

y
b

(B) z

d b a e

x
e?

c a

e c

The thrust out of a triangle is typically limited to 75-125% of the widest leg, which in this case would be an extremely wide range of outcomes between 1375 and 1525 depending on where exactly the ewave (within x) concluded. I think this wave, though, will end up limited by its relationship to the y wave. It should be, 62-78% of y, which would suggest a move to 1400-1450.

(A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation COPIED from 3/11/12

c
81.78

-b(c)

(a)

-a78.10

(b) -cd

The DXY looks like it has further to move before the -b- wave finishes. This move may be what helps the S&P500 correct lower to start the week. Ultimately though, it does look like the dollar has one more decent little wave down (the -c- of d-wave), so maybe that will be the gyration which causes the S&P500 to breakout higher one more time.
b

I really like 80.53 as being good resistance that should cap the DXY in the near term.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

c
81.78

-b(c)

(a)

-a78.10

(b) -cd

The DXY closed right at our key resistance last week and then failed. It looks like the -c- of d-wave has commenced. The trend should be lower/sideways price action for the next few weeks. The -a- = -c- target aligns with the 61.8% retrace at 77.42. That looks like a viable target for this move if the count is correct. DXY shorts/bears should consider 80.42 and 80.74 as first and second resistance for stop loss strategies.
b

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold ~ Daily Continuation

The tighter stop at $1,761 served the longs well in terms of loss avoidance. That level now becomes primary resistance as gold dropped like a stone last week. It did manage to hold the 38.2% of the entire advance but it seems like the yellow metal is just in the beginning stage of a multi-week correction that should take it down to $1,626 or lower.

COPIED from 3/4/12

b d

1,761 = resistance

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold ~ Daily Continuation

A few weeks ago it was suggested that gold was just beginning a multi-week decline that should take it to $1,626. So far, so good on that call. It feels like the meat of the decline is over with the 61.8% retrace looming as decent support to the bulls. Bears/shorts should consider trimming bearish positions in front of that support, or at least be using $1,685 for a stop loss point. 1685 is the 61.8% retrace of the move down from $1,717.40

1,761 = resistance

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.