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Analysis
of Kano
Master
State
subtitle
Government
style
Budget
3/26/12
Budget Forum
11
3/26/12
Budget Forum
22
Over-View (Contd.)
2010
2011
110. 69Billion
109.47Billion
Approx 1% less
3/26/12
Budget Forum
33
Over-view contd.
Composition:
Capital expenditure
billion (53.5%)
3/26/12
Budget Forum
N58.52
44
Over-view contd.
sector
Capital allocation
19.3%
17.9%
11.7%
Education
11.3%
10.9%
6.1%
3.5%
Water Resources
3.0%
Higher Education
2.0%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
55
3.6% of overheads
Budget Forum
66
Over-view contd.
Budget Finance
N24.9b of
grants N9.3b
3/26/12
Budget Forum
88
3. Budget Performance
4. Budget Impact
3/26/12
Budget Forum
99
Resource Utilization
3/26/12
Budget Forum
1010
Total Revenue..
Federation Account
I.
Stat Allocation
VAT
II.
IGR
III.
Other
3/26/12
Budget Forum
1111
IGR: today
Revenue
N billion
Remarks
Consolidated
57.55
49.84
7.71
IGR is 13.4%
revenue.
a.
b.
Federation account
IGR
3/26/12
Budget Forum
1212
of
consolidated
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
Internally
3.079
Generated
Revenue
(N
Billion)
Total Revenue (N22.782
Billion)
4.418
4.727
7.778
6.091
8.300
5.730
31.817
37.910
47.865
39.615
70.720
43.696
43.5%
6.99%
64.54%
-17.23%
36.27%
-31.00%
IGR as % Total13.5%
Revenue
13.9%
12.6%
16.25%
15.38%
11.70%
13.00%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
1313
Recent past:
Total Revenues: (2003-2009) N294.4
billion of which:
Budget Forum
1414
IGR: 1990s
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
Total
revenues1.6
(Naira Billion)
IGR
0.205
2.2
2.8
3.2
4.7
0.457
0.352
0.599
0.603
IGR as % of TR
17%
13%
19%
13%
3/26/12
1994
13%
Budget Forum
1515
3/26/12
Budget Forum
1616
Whats common?
13% of RR today
11-16% 2003-2009
13-19% 1994-1998
Budget Forum
1717
3/26/12
Budget Forum
1818
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
IGR
3.079
4.418
4.727
7.778
6.091
8.300
5.730
6.534
9.191
9.550
11.593
13.113
7.305
12.084
17.654
13.079
13.523
13.839
21.275
27.203
24.672
34.76
26.636
67.6%
51.4%
81.4%
52.5%
46.7%
60.5%
39.1%
44.1%
46.6%
42.4%
31.9%
22.2%
28.6%
24.7%
23.88%
21.5%
Personnel
6.164
Cost
Overhead
7.088
Costs
Recurrent
13.252
Costs
IGR/Personn 49.9%
el
IGR/Overhea 43.4%
ds
IGR/Recurre 23.2%
nt
3/26/12
Budget Forum
1919
3/26/12
Budget Forum
2020
2003-2007:
II.
III.
What to do:
I.
II.
III.
I.
Challenge 2: reducing
wasteful spending
3/26/12
Budget Forum
2424
Composition of budgets
Item/year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
Total
19.404
36.528
44.632
41.126
86.7
44.437
291.62
Recurrent
13.252
13.839
21.275
27.204
24.672
34.8
26.637
161.68
%of Total
71%
71%
58%
61%
60%
40%
60%
55.44%
Capital
5.543
5.565
15.253
17.428
16.454
51.9
17.801
129.94
%Total
29%
29%
42%
39%
40%
60%
40%
44.56%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
2525
Composition contd.
3/26/12
Budget Forum
2626
3/26/12
Budget Forum
2727
Composition contd.
except
for
2008,
Recurrent
Expenditure constitutes 58%-71% of
State Budgets.
therefore 29-42% of the budget is
available for capital investment to
build schools, hospitals, roads, dams
etc.
This means for EVERY Naira 71K is
operational cost and 29k capital
3/26/12
2828
investment.Budget Forum
Composition contd.
to
illustrate:
2003-2007
total
spending was N160 billion of which:-
3/26/12
Budget Forum
2929
Composition contd.
A worrisome development:
five government units Cabinet
Office, Office of Governor, Office of
HOS, SHoA are responsible for
between 25% and 38% of state-wide
recurrent costs.
The 5 units recurrent costs of N9.8
billion (2009) exceed the capital
investment spending of 7 MDAs,
3/26/12
Budget Forum
3030
namely:
Composition contd.
PPP
3/26/12
Budget Forum
3232
Budget Forum
3333
Composition contd.
3/26/12
Budget Forum
3434
Budget Performance
3/26/12
Budget Forum
3535
Performance
Estimates:
N457.611 billion
Actual
N286.365 billion
Variance :
(N171.25 billion)
3/26/12
Budget Forum
3636
Performance contd.
3/26/12
Budget Forum
3737
Performance contd.
actual
revised
Index
Capital
expenditure
13.69 b
56.2
25%
Recurrent
expenditure
33.32 b
52.70
63%
All budget
47.01b
108.88
43%
Performance
Index
3/26/12
Budget Forum
3838
Should we prioritize?
3/26/12
Budget Forum
3939
Challenges..education
Primary + pre-primary
JSS
SSS
No of schools
5,024
847
347
22,924
4,746
3,203
Number usable
21,640 (94.4%)
4,499 (94.8%)
3,068 (95.8%)
18.3% (range:4.8-35%)
13.3% (0-27%)
19.7% (0-89%)
35.5% (14-95%)
45.3% (23.5-100%)
52.5% (0-100%)
61.5% (37-95%)
73.9% (45.2-100%)
73.6% (25-100%)
47.4%
25.9%
14.2%
61.8%
32.1%
13.5%
Pupil-toilet ratio
200.6
85.6
68.5
87
59
55
-range
49-246 (BGW-KNC)
27-126 KNC-KBT
22-132 (DGW-DALA)
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4040
Challenges..contd.
Primary
JSS
SSS
PRE-PRIMARY
All teachers
44,648
7,903
5,380
584
qualified
16,531 (37%)
6,239 (78.9%)
4,396 (82%)
207 (35.5%)
-all teachers
42 (21-102)
33 (13-67)
31 (14-53)
251 (40-3,594)
-qualified
114 (58-570)
42 (16-74)
39 (18-73)
710 (75-6,148)
Pupils
1,054,994
264,143
169,725
975,375
Pupil-teacher ratio
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4141
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
35.81
47.54
55.60
57.77
105.21
120.92
110.69
Education
(Billion N)*
4.06
3.25
8.18
10.22
14.04
23.73
24.37
11.3%
6.8%
14.7%
17.7%
13.3%
19.6%
22.0%
4.28
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4242
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4343
Education expenditure as %
of total estimates 20032010
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4444
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
total
18.55
36.53
44.63
41.12
86.62
44.44
286.4
Education
(Billion N)*
1.80
2.55
6.20
7.38
11.86
8.05
39.8
9.69%
7.0%
13.9%
17.9%
13.7%
18.1%
14%
1.96
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4545
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4646
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4747
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4848
3/26/12
Budget Forum
4949
Budget implementation
3/26/12
Budget Forum
5050
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
4.28
4.06
3.25
8.28
10.22
14.04
23.73
1.80
2.55
6.20
7.38
11.86
8.05
Variance
(Billion N)
2.32
2.26
0.70
2.08
2.84
2.18
15.68
Index %
45.79%
44.33%
78.46%
74.88%
72.21%
84.47%
33.9%
estimates
(Billion N)
3/26/12
Budget Forum
5151
Performance Index
Education Index %
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
3/26/12
Budget Forum
10
12
5252
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Estimates
2.427
1.375
2.323
2.583
2.795
4.02
10.88
Actual
0.404
0.507
1.614
1.232
1.310
3.1
0.557
36.9%
69.5%
47.7%
46.9%
77.1%
5.1%
Performance 16.6%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
5353
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
14.48
18.55
36.53
44.63
41.12
86.62
44.44
Growth
28.10%
96.9%
22.20%
-7.9%
110.7%
-48.7%
1.80
2.55
6.20
7.38
11.86
8.05
Growth
8.16%
41.67%
143.14%
19.03%
60.70%
-32.6%
0.507
1.614
1.23
1.310
3.1
0.557
25.5%
218.3%
-23.8%
6.5%
136.6%
-82.3%
Actual budget
(State)
Capital
expenditure:
education
0.404
Growth
3/26/12
Budget Forum
5454
3/26/12
Budget Forum
5555
3/26/12
Budget Forum
5656
3/26/12
Budget Forum
5757
2007
2008
2009
State Budget
55.6
57.77
105.20
120.90
Higher Ed Budget
1.84
3.04
3.73
5.89
% of State Budget
3.3%
5.3%
3.5%
4.9%
Rate of change
65.7%
22.7%
57.9%
Recurrent
1.21 (65.76)
2.23 (73.36%)
3.06 (82.04%)
4.63 (78.6%)
Capital
0.620 (34.1%)
0.806(26.5%)
0.670(18%)
1.26 (21.4%)
Budget estimates
1.84
3.04
3.73
5.89
Budget actual
1.59
2.19
4.08
3.40
Index
86%
72%
109.4%
57.7%
Capital estimates
0.628
0.806
0.67
1.26
Capital actual
0.610
0.212
0.690
Composition
Performance
3/26/12
Budget Forum
0.860
5858
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Estimates
N450 m
N1.00 b
N1.12 b
N1.094 b
N2.91 b
Actual
N670 m
N278.5m
N512 m
N807 m
N309 m
28%
46%
73.8%
10.6%
SUBEB
Performanc 149%
e Index
SSMB
Estimates
N45.8 m
(2003)
N10m
N20.4 m
N14 m
N100 m
Actual
N5.00 m
N3.3m
N0.00
N8 m
N00
33%
0%
57%
0%
Performanc 10.9%
e Index
College of
Education
3/26/12
Estimates
N25 m
Budget Forum
N20m
N32 m
Performance.. contd
KUT
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
estimates
N684m
N80m
N192.5
N450m
N540m
N249
N576m
actual
N193m
N76m
N3.1m
N510m
N186.9m
N350.7m
N0.00
Index
28%
95%
1.6%
113%
35%
71%
0%
N95m
N175m
N200m
N315m
N75m
N7.9m
N142m
N80m
78.9%
4.6%
71%
25.4%
Kano Poly
Estimates
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6060
>60
4/100,000 Pop
Population Density
509 persons/Sq Km
Fertility Rate
6.7
12.7%
49.8%
*MMR
*IMR
*Measles Coverage
17.8%
*HIV prevalence
2.3%
*TB prevalence
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6161
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Budget
(Billion N)
34.76
35.81
47.54
55.60
57.77
105.21
120.92
110.69
0.782
1.301
3.350
3.43
5.77
9.11
8.873
2.2%
2.7%
6.0%
5.9%
5.50%
7.5%
8.0%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6262
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6363
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6464
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
18.55
36.53
44.63
41.12
86.62
44.44
47.01
0.649
0.844
2.46
4.35
5.37
4.432
7.02
3.5%
2.3%
5.5%
10.6%
6.2%
9.7%
14.9%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6565
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.649
0.844
2.46
4.35
5.37
4.432
7.01
Recurrent
(BN)
0.145
0.108
0.219
2.199
3.448
4.081
3.139
5.577
0.541
0.625
0.261
0.902
1.289
1.293
1.439
Share of
Capital %
83.4%
74.1%
10.6%
20.7%
24.0%
29.2%
20.5%
54.7%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6666
Capital-recurrent expenditure
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6767
Budget performance
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
estimates
(Billion N)
Actual (Billion
N)*
Variance
(Billion N)
Index %
0.632
0.782
1.301
3.350
3.43
5.77
9.11
0.320
0.649
0.844
2.46
4.35
5.37
4.43
0.312
0.133
0.457
0.890
-0.92
0.40
4.68
50.6%
83.00%
64.87%
73.4%
126.8%
93.07%
48.6%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6868
3/26/12
Budget Forum
6969
3/26/12
Budget Forum
7070
3/26/12
Budget Forum
7171
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
36.9%
69.5%
47.7%
46.9%
77.1%
5.1%
Health Index %
83.00%
64.87%
73.4%
126.8%
93.07%
48.6%
50.6%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
7272
2007
2008
2009
%change
education
625.6
753.1
1,186
774
23.7%
Health
258.9
443.9
537
426.2
64.62%
agriculture
648.4
284.7
453.0
359.6
-44.5%
Water resources
95.7
318.4
401.0
278.8
191%
W&H
97.9
383.7
637
472
382%
LPP
203.2
116.3
828.0
733.7
261%
3/26/12
Budget Forum
7373
3/26/12
Budget Forum
7474
3/26/12
Budget Forum
7575
3/26/12
Budget Forum
7676