SOFTWARE DEADLINE TIME ESTIMATION

BY Tutunaru DANIEL

SOFTWARE ESTIMATION
Is done often because it is expected to help in predicting how much will the project cost and when will the project get completed. It is important, especially at the time of bidding for project, and establishing deadlines.

Elements of a Successful Estimate (1)

An estimation starts with a work breakdown structure (WBS). A WBS is a list of tasks that, if completed, will produce the final product. The way the work is broken down dictates how it will be done. There are many ways to decompose a project into tasks.

Elements of a Successful Estimate (2)

The project can be broken down by feature, by project phase (requirements tasks, design tasks, programming tasks, etc.), or by some combination of the two. Ideally, the WBS should reflect the way previous projects have been developed. A useful rule is that any project can be broken down into 10 up to 20 tasks.

Elements of a Successful Estimate (3)

Once the WBS is created, the team must create an estimate of the effort required to perform each task. The most accurate estimates are those that rely on prior experience. Team members should review previous project results and find how long similar tasks in previous projects took to complete. Sources of delays in the past should be taken into account when making current estimates. Postmortem reports are a good source of this information.

Elements of a Successful Estimate (4)

No estimate is guaranteed to be accurate. People get sick or leave the organization; teams run into technical problems; the needs of the organization change. The unexpected will almost certainly happen. Therefore, the goal of estimation is not to predict the future. Instead, it is to gauge an honest, wellinformed opinion of the effort required to do a task from those people in the organization who have the most applicable training and knowledge.

Software Project Estimation is Inherently Inaccurate (1)

Because: 1) No one asked the people who are in-charge of doing the task for their estimates. 2) Resources are fixed, but a deadline is set.

Software Project Estimation is Inherently Inaccurate (2)

The Triangle of Constraints states that in a project there are three constraints, Scope, Time, and Cost, if one of the constraints changes, then so will the others. In this case, if the deadline is set, time is fixed. Therefore, either scope has to be reduced or the cost needs to go up or maybe both scope and cost will change.

3 Ways to Meet Software Project Deadline

Simplify Over-engineered Designs Simplify Features
Cut Low Priority Features

SOFTWARE PROJECT DEADLINE ESTIMATION METHODES

Wideband Delphi Estimation Proxy Based Estimating (PROBE) The Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) The Planning Game

DEADLINE AS ESTIMATED DATE OF COMPLETION (EDC) (1)

DEADLINE AS ESTIMATED DATE OF COMPLETION (EDC) (2)

Figure : -The Optimistic -Most Likely -Pessimistic -Expected Times for Project Completion The expected time for work completion, E is E = ( O + 4M + P ) / 6

THE CASE FOR A RELAXED INITIAL EDC (1)

THE CASE FOR A RELAXED INITIAL EDC (2)

Figure : The expected time for project with provision of error in estimation. E' is the EDC for the project, taking into account the errors in estimation for software development work.

CONCLUSIONS
Many software projects end up as failures because of tight deadlines. A deadline is an estimate for completion of development work. Since it is an estimate made before starting the work, there is an associated probability that the work will actually get completed by the estimated deadline. An alternative term for deadline is the estimated date of completion (EDC) of a project.