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Andrei Markevich
(New Economic School)
Mark Harrison
Gregory (1982)
Maddison (2010)
Harrison (1996)
Motivation
We need to fill the gap! Without this, we cannot answer important questions from Russian economic history
How effectively did alternative economic systems and government policies mobilize the economy in times of Great War and Civil War? At the end of two wars, just how bad was it? Given this, what was pace of postwar recovery under the New Economic Policy? When did the Soviet economy recover fully?
Implications beyond Russia: economics of wars, WWI in particular, and Civil wars in the past Difficult to analyze Russian/Soviet economic growth in the long run without the GDP series
Plan
Estimation issues Findings
Implications for Russian Economic History Russian 1913-1928 Experience in Comparison
Cross-country
Economics of WWI Civil wars of the past Post-war Recover
Estimation issues
Borders
We have Soviet Union within interwar borders of 1925 to 1939 as primary territory for GDP and population in all years. Russian Empire excluding Poland and Finland, within borders of 1913, as secondary territory for GDP and population, 1913 to 1917 only.
Population
Reconstructed for the from censuses and vital statistics. Corrected on lines suggested by Vainshtein; Sifman; Andreev, Darskii, and Kharkova and Adametz
Estimation issues
GDP by sector of origin
Sectors: agriculture, large + small industry, construction, transport, civilian + military services. Physical production from official sources, mainly published in 1920s. Corrected as advised by Gukhman, Vainshtein, Wheatcroft, and others. Service sector output based on employment.
Prices
We use constant prices of 1913. Why not 1928, too? By 1928 Soviet markets were isolated from world trade. Relative prices were affected by government controls and subsidies; markets were in disequilibrium Branch shares in the Soviet economy in 1928 were nearly identical to those of the Russian economy in 1913.
Findings
200%
100%
50%
Maddison (2010)
25% 1913
1918
1923
1928
Reflections on the War Communism and Civil War - output fell most precipitously before 1919 when the Red and White armies clashed most fiercely, i.e. should blame the policy of grain requisitions started in 1918 - by 1920, with a command economy in place, the Bolsheviks were able to stabilize the economy, but not at first to recover - 1921-1922 famine occurred after a series of very bad harvests, i.e. caused not by the weather shock only
79%
89% 92% 97%
110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Russia Turkey Finland Hungary
France Germany Austria Greece
UK
Belgium
5000
6000
Causes of Civil wars according to cross-country studies of Civil wars (Collier and Hoeffler 2007; Blattmann and Miguel 2010): a political constitution that restricted competition and participation, and several years of declining output Limited help to explain the start of the Civil War in Russia in that time
Greece Finland Czechoslovakia Yugoslavia USSR Bulgaria Turkey Romania Hungary France Belgium UK
Germany Austria
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Gregory M&H
Maddison
Harrison
0.1-3.8 (1991-98)
Further research: the analysis of Russian/Soviet growth in the long-run is now possible
Did it follow a common trend? Were there any breaks? Were negative shocks of the WWs and the Great Breakthrough permanent or transitory?