This is the result of effort that are initiated and Controlled by the firm itself.

Its two typesseizing tacit knowledge and promoting internal and R and D Process of the internal acquisition . 1. Planning new product 2. Screening new product 3. Initiating development process 4. Trial product 5. Improving design 6. Commercialization

1. Outsourcing 2. Strategic alliance 3. Collaboration research and development 4. Enterprises acquisition

Level of economic development state of technology appropriateness of new technology impact on old technology Associated cost

it is acquisition, development, assimilation and utilization of technology knowledge and capabilities by firm, or some macro entity. Two kind of absorption 1 Adoption 2 Adaptation

1. Hardware;- refer to particular physical structure of components and logic layout. 2. Software;- its know how of a carrying out tasks to achieve goals and objectives 3. Brainware;- application and justification of hardware , software development, know what and know why of technology.

Focus Leads Cost Time Change Ownership

The course of events that brings a new product into existence and follows its growth into a mature product and into eventual critical mass and decline.

The most common steps in the life cycle of a product include the following phases:

Product Development Phase - Includes market analysis, product design, conception, and testing. Market Introduction Phase - Initial release of the product, usually marked with high levels of advertising.

Growth Phase - Sales growth begins to accelerate, characterized with increasing sales year-over-year. As production levels increase, gross margins should steadily decline, making the product less profitable on a per-unit basis. An increase in competition is probable. Maturity Phase - The product will reach the upper bounds of its demand cycle and further spending on advertising will have little to no effect on increasing demand.

 Decline/Stability Phase - This is where a product has reached or passed its point of highest demand. At this point, demand will either remain steady or slowly decline as a newer product makes it obsolete.

It is an activity that enables companies to identify the technological opportunities and threats that could effect the future growth and survival of their business. It helps in making strategic decision making.

EXTERNAL : Focuses on tech development taking place outside the firm. INTERNAL : Focuses on projects and tech within the firm.

Macro level: broad technical trends that are developing in our economy. Industry or business level: technological trends and factors that affect or likely to affect a specific industry. Program or project: refers to technological factors for a specific tech related project or program.

The future is not what it used to be. Valery Flying jet cars, paper clothes, underwater cities, moon colonies, 20hour work week, wrist videophones, selfcontained artificial heart, orbiting manufacturing facilities, AI brain simulator

New opportunities / threats Substitution of new for old Process redesign To minimize loss associated with uncontrollable events external to the organization. To offset the actions of competitive or hostile organizations. For purposes of production and/or inventory control

Qualitative methods:
Forecasts generated subjectively by the

forecaster

Quantitative methods:
Forecasts generated through mathematical

modeling

Type Executive opinion

Characteristics Strengths Weaknesses A group of managers Good for strategic or One person's opinion meet & come up with new-product can dominate the a forecast forecasting forecast Uses surveys & Good determinant of It can be difficult to interviews to identify customer preferences develop a good customer preferences questionnaire Seeks to develop a Excellent for Time consuming to consensus among a forecasting long-term develop group of experts product demand, technological changes, and

Market research

Delphi method

Assumes the future will follow same patterns as the

TIME SERIES:
past

TIME SERIES DATA COMPOSITION

Data = historic pattern + random variation Historic pattern to be forecasted:

Level (long-term average) Trend Seasonality Cycle

PROBABILISTIC MODEL: Instead of producing a single-valued forecast, probabilistic models produce a probability distribution over a range of possible values.
CAUSAL MODEL:

OTHER MODELS LIKE:

Explores cause-and-effect relationships Uses leading indicators to predict the future E.g. housing starts and appliance sales

ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING: