Local climate change trend and people's perception: a case from Khudi watershed Lamjung, Nepal

A R Sharma1, N R Khanal2, K P Sharma3, A B Shrestha1

1International Center

for Integrated Mountain Development; 2Tribhuvan University; 3Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

E-mail: asharma@icimod.org

Introduction
Mountains and Himalayan communities are more sensitive to compounding impacts of climate changes (CC). The increasing temperature and unusual rainfall, drought, flooding, high rate of snow melting and GLOF, drying of water sources are some consequences of these rapid changes in this region. The rural mountain communities are more vulnerable. Still climate change and its consequences research are meager in this region. Local communities have been experiencing the changes since many years. Local peoples perception towards the CC help not only to increase the understanding of consequences but also to implement well informed adaption policies at local level. Documentation of peoples perception on effects of CC and relation with recorded climatic data provides a good opportunity to formulate better policy, new hypothesis for researcher to adaptation and livelihood. Precipitation and temperature are primary indicators of the climate of a region and their trend shows the climatic variability within the region. Many projections have reported increasing temperature and unusual pattern of precipitation in the Himalayas. In this study an attempt was made to capture local communities perception on different aspects of CC and its consequences taking the case of a small mountain watershed.

Khudi Watershed with Sampling Strata and Settlements

Study Area and Methods Study Site

This study was conducted at Khudi watershed, Nepal situated between 28003 - 28030 N and 8401184038 E, elevation of 823 - 3000 masl. This is the region which indicates the highest temperature increasing trend in Nepal. The area occupies forested slope and terraces farmlands, spare settlements and receives heavy rainfall during monsoon with mean annual rainfall of 3345.93 mm and average temperature records 21.520C.

Methods
Stratification of water as below 1000 m & above 1000 m Many Focus group discussions (FGDs) were carried out among the knowledgeable persons. Stratified random sampling was done to select households (HHs) to survey. Selected HHs were surveyed using semi-structured questionnaire with climate change indicators. 90 HHs were considered for analysis with 66% cut-off rule of sorting. Analysis by computing frequency and percentage of repose. Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation analyzed using regression trend equations.

Results Trend of Temperature and Precipitation

Temperature
Annual Mean Tmax

People Perception

120%

Perception on Experiences of Temp Changes

35 30 25 Temp0C 20 15 10 5

Annual Temperaure Trend( 1987-2009)

y = 0.0217x - 16.119

Annual Mean Tmin Linear (Annual Mean Tmax) Linear (Annual Mean Tmin)

100%

80% Respondent

60%

y = 0.0215x - 27.221

40%

20%

0% 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 felt winter are less cold and felt days are becoming hotter frosty felt less cold winter days above 1000 Total felt extreme hot summer days temperature change

below 1000

Local People Perception On Precipitation change pattern

35 30 25 Temp 0C 20 15 10 5 0 1984

Winter Temperaure Trend( 1987-2009)

Winter Mean Tmax Winter Mean Tmin Linear (Winter Mean Tmax) Linear (Winter Mean Tmin)

80% 70% 60% Respondent 50% 40% 30%

below 1000 above 1000 Total

y = 0.0747x - 127.98

y = 0.0159x - 23.329 20% 10% 0% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 increased decreased Response same/not change

SummerTemperaure Trend( 1987-2009)

34 32 30 28 26 Temp0C 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Summer mean TMin Linear (Summer mean Tmax) Summer mean Tmax

Perception on CC Indicators
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Winter temp Summer temp Unusal rainfall Heavy rainfall Winter rainfall decreased Earlier starting of monsoon Drought Frequency Increase

below 1000 above 1000 Total

y = 0.0143x + 1.8508

y = 0.0023x + 16.741

2010

Precipitation

Annual Rainfall (1975-2009)

Hundreds
50 45 40 35 y = 10.915x + 3106.5

Discussions/ Conclusions
This is the one of the initial works at small scale mountain watershed to understand the perception of people towards global changes. In summary this study indicates that overall temperature is increasing in mountain creating impacts on weather and precipitation, snowfall and retreat water availability and crops yield. Winter is less severe and shorter, monsoon is shifting. There is no more snow where there used to be few decades back. Rainfalls are heavy but duration is short and there is increasing risk of flooding and drought. Local perceptions of CC are supported by recorded data analysis. The community feels that that the region is not only getting warmer but also affecting their livelihood. 94% of total respondents said that they have experienced decrease in water availability giving the example of recently dried up well. Such changes have direct consequence on agricultural production and hydro energy generation. Following perceptions clearly indicate significant change in the local climatic pattern particularly with respect to seasonal changes in temperature, precipitation and snowfall. Data analysis results and perception towards temperature, snow fall and retreat are directly correlated. In case of precipitation, peoples perception is correlated with the pattern change but not with amount. Temperature rise is higher (0.740C & 0.240C per decade Tmax and Tmin respectively) that correlate with above 90% respondents perception. Annual rainfall shows increasing trend (10.19mm/year, 1975-2009) but 64% of respondent experience decreasing rainfall. It can be assumed that people perceive for the duration of rainfall than amount. Starting time of monsoon has been delayed (97%). Rainfall is heavy but for short duration. Increase in heavy rainfall enhances flash flood in oval shaped watershed like Khudi. Few decades ago, there used to occur heavy rainfall in winter but these years its highly sporadic and sometimes even no rainfall. 76% of the respondent felt that snowfall in the upper part of the watershed is decreasing. 58% of the respondent in upper zone felt winter are less cold and frosty while 33% in lower zone felt the same. In agriculture, 56% of total respondents experienced early ripening or maturity of their crops. People have also observed new pest in their farm lands. People started growing some new crops in high elevation. According to the elder people, especially from FGD, winters are less chilly, winter rainfall has been decreasing and summer days are hotter in recent decades. Natural disasters have been increasing in recent years. Almost all the residents have experienced the increased frequency in heavy flooding( 94%) and prolonged drought ( 86%). 46% respondents think that disasters occurred due to increasing unusual weather behavior like heavy rainfall in short period. Data records shows that the temperature is increasing by 0.21oC/decade Tmax and 0.20oC/decade Tmin. The annual rainfall at Khudi watershed is increasing but with unusual pattern. Prolonged dry periods and short but intense rainfall during rainy seasons are being observed. Local people have good knowledge about the changes and its impacts in agriculture productivity. The people perception shows that the impacts of climate change are unambiguous in the study area. They are facing hotter days heavy shower, less snow fall and increase frequency of the disasters. These changes are making the community more vulnerable. Agricultural problems and food scarcity, water problems and socio-economic impacts of the disasters are increasing in the community as impacts of CC. Documentation of local knowledge of CC play a critical role in developing effective adaptation measures in fragile rural mountain communities where there is meager of scientific documentations but impacts are high. Documentation and use of local knowledge in CC policy can create influential impacts to manage the effects of climate change and implement better adaptation policy and practices.

Rainfall ( mm)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

year
Annual Rainfall 5Yrs Moving Mean_Annual Linear (5Yrs Moving Mean_Annual)

Winter Rainfall(1975-2009)
300

y = 1.1219x + 68.955
250

200

Rainfall ( mm)

150

100

50

0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

year
Winter Rainfall(DJF) 5Yrs Moving Mean_winter Linear (5Yrs Moving Mean_winter)

Response

Acknowledgement
IWHM, ICIMOD ProVention Consortium, Switzerland Central Department of Environmental Science , Tribhuvan University Yubraj Satyal, Raju Pokhrel, Mausam Khanal and Jagadish Paudel Local People of Khudi Watershed

The Khudi Watershed.