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Methods
of estimating
Master subtitle
trendstyle
5/4/12
PRODU50
CTION
5/4/12
36
43
45
41
39
42
41
34
39
Sol: - Let us take two periods of 5 years each 1976 to 1980 and
1981 to 1985.
YEAR
PRODUCTION SUB
[In million
TOTAL
tones]
1976
50
-2
43+(-0.8X-2)=44.6
1977
36
-1
43+(-0.8X-1)=43.8
1978
43
43+(-0.8X0)=43.0
1979
45
43+(-0.8X1)=42.2
1980
41
43+(-0.8X2)=41.4
1981
39
43+(-0.8X3)=40.6
1982
42
43+(-0.8X4)=39.8
1983
1984
41
34
5
6
43+(-0.8X5)=39.0
43+(-0.8X6)=38.2
1985
39
43+(-0.8X7)=37.4
5/4/12
215
195
SEMI
AVG
43
39
=2x215/10=43
b=4(S2-S1)/n2
2) The method of moving avg:If m is odd number, the moving avg are easily
obtained. If m is an even number then centering procedure is
followed.
year
Population
(in millions)
438
2003
446
2004
454
2005
470
2006
483
2007
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490
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year
Population 3yearly
(in millions) moving
total
3yearly
moving
Avges
2001
412
2002
438
1296
1296/3=432
2003
446
1338
1338/3=446
2004
454
1370
1370/3=456.
66
2005
470
1407
1407/3=469
2006
483
1443
1443/3=481
2007
490
103
1999
104
2000
107
2001
101
2002
102
2003
104
2004
105
2005
99
2006
100
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Year
Value
4yearly
moving
total
1998
103
1999
104
2yearly
4yearly
moving
moving avg
Total of
i.e. 2m=2x4
4yearly
moving total
415
2000
107
829
829/8=103.62
5
828
103.5
414
2001
101
414
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2002
102
826
103.25
822
102.75
818
102.25
412
2003
104
410
2004
105
408
2005
99
2006
100
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a=y/n
b = xy/x2
year
Production
1992
77
1994
81
1996
88
1998
94
2000
94
2002
96
2004
98
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on
77
-3
-231
values
79.12
1993
81
-2
-162
82.65
1994
88
-1
-88
86.18
1995
94
89.71
1996
94
94
93.24
1997
96
192
96.77
1998
98
294
100.30
y=628
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x2=28 xy=99
Here n=7
a =628/7 =89.71
b =99/28 =3.535
y=a+bx
=89.71+3.535x
The trend values are obtained by
substituting different values of x
e.g. 2 if it is even
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year
Value
2002
10
2003
2004
12
2005
2006
11
2007
12
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Value
X2
Xy
2002
10
-5
25
-50
Trend
values
9.18
2003
-3
-24
9.64
2004
12
-1
-12
10.1
2005
10.56
2006
11
33
11.02
2007
12
25
60
11.48
x2=70
xy=16
y=62
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a =62/6 =10.33
b =16/70 =0.23
y=a+bx
=10.33+0.23x
Trend values are obtained by
substituting the different values of x
5/4/12