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USING THE NET PRESENT VALUE RULE TO MAKE VALUE-CREATING INVESTMENT DECISIONS

Hawawini & Viallet Chapter 6 2007 Thomson South-Western

Background

One that raises the current market value of the firms equity, thereby creating value for the firms owners Involves comparing the amount of cash spent on an investment today with the cash inflows expected from it in the future

Capital budgeting

Discounting is the mechanism used to account for the time value of money

Converts future cash flows into todays equivalent value called present value or discounted value

Apart from the timing issue, there is also the issue of the risk associated with future cash flows

There is always some probability that the cash flows realized in the future may not be the expected ones

Chapter 6

Background

The major steps involved in a capital budgeting decision How to calculate the present value of a stream of future cash flows The net present value (NPV) rule and how to apply it to investment decisions Why a projects NPV is a measure of the value it creates How to use the NPV rule to choose between projects of different sizes or different useful lives How the flexibility of a project can be described with the help of managerial options

Chapter 6

Capital investment decision (capital budgeting decision, capital expenditure decision) involves four steps

Investment proposals are also often classified according to the difficulty in estimating the key valuation parameters

Chapter 6

EXHIBIT 6.1:

Chapter 6

EXHIBIT 6.2:

Exhibit 6.2 illustrates the case of investing $10,000 in a parcel of land now with the expectation that it could be sold for $10,500 next year. The expected return on this investment is 5 percent. If more than 5 percent can be earned on a truly comparable or alternative investment, we should not buy the land.

Hawawini & Viallet Chapter 6

Both the alternative investment and the one under consideration must share the same attributes

Risk Tax treatment Liquidity

Chapter 6

Thus, the alternative investment is the deposit of $10,000 in a government-insured savings account, which is currently offering a 3 percent return

Since it is the return we would give up if we buy the land, it is called the projects opportunity cost of capital, or simply, the projects cost of capital

Comparing a projects return with that of an alternative investment is a straightforward approach to investment analysis

But it may fail under some particular patterns of cash flows (see next chapter) The net present value approach, in contrast, can deal with any pattern of cash flows

Chapter 6

Instead of comparing the rates of return for the two investmentsthe parcel of land and the savings account:

Compare the $10,000 payable now to acquire the land with the dollar amount that we would have to invest now in the savings account to have $10,500 one year from now

This comparison is the foundation of the net present value rule

Chapter 6

A One-Period Investment

How much should we invest now in a savings account with a 3 percent interest rate if we want to receive $10,500 in one year?

$10,194

Working out this example allows us to introduce the concepts of the future value (compounded value) and the present value (discounted value), as well as compound and discount factors for a one-period project (as illustrated in Exhibit 6.3)

Compounding provides the future value ($10,500) of the present one ($10,194), while discounting provides the present value of the future one

The compound factor is the factor by which the initial cash outlay ($10,000) must be multiplied to get its future value, while the discount factor is the factor by which the expected cash flow ($10,500) must be multiplied to get its present value

Chapter 6

10

A One-Period Investment

At 3 percent, we should be indifferent between $10,194 now and $10,500 in one year

The difference between the present value of the future cash flow and the initial cash outlay is called the net present value (NPV)

An investment should be accepted if its NPV is positive and should be rejected if its NPV is negative If the NPV is zero, we would be indifferent between the project and an alternative investment

Chapter 6

11

EXHIBIT 6.3:

Chapter 6

12

EXHIBIT 6.4: Time Line for the Two-Period Investment, No Intermediate Cash Flow.

Exhibit 6.4 illustrates the same investment in the parcel of land when the expected cash flow of $10,500 is received two years from now, as opposed to one year from now. We show how the previous approach can be extended to a two-period investment without intermediate cash flows.

Chapter 6

13

EXHIBIT 6.5: Time Line for the Two-Period Investment with an Intermediate Cash Flow.

Exhibit 6.5 shows the cash flow time line of the lands investment, assuming that the parcel of land is rented for $1,000 a year for two years and that it is sold after two years for $10,500. We show how the same approach used in the previous scenarios can be extended to a three-period investment with an intermediate cash flow.

Chapter 6

14

EXHIBIT 6.6: Time Line for a Multiple-Period Investment The General Case.

Exhibit 6.6 illustrates the case of a multiple-period investment and presents the general NPV formula.

Hawawini & Viallet Chapter 6

15

Example: Sunlight Manufacturing Company, which is considering adding a new product to its existing line

The example assumes that the inputs (i.e., the cash flows and the cost of capital) have already been estimated

The estimation of those inputs is addressed in Chapter 8 (cash flows) and Chapter 10 (cost of capital) with the same company

Chapter 6

16

EXHIBIT 6.7a: Calculation of Present Values for SMC Designer Desk Lamp.

Chapter 6

17

EXHIBIT 6.7b: Calculation of Present Values for SMC Designer Desk Lamp.

Chapter 6

18

Measures value creation Adjusts for the timing of the projects expected cash flows Adjusts for the risk of the projects expected cash flows Is additive

Chapter 6

19

The present value of a projects expected cashflow stream at its cost of capital

Estimate of how much the project would sell for if a market existed for it

The net present value of an investment project represents the immediate change in the wealth of the firms owners if the project is accepted

If positive, the project creates value for the firms owners; if negative, it destroys value

Chapter 6

20

The NPV rule takes into consideration the timing of the expected future cash flows

Demonstrated by comparing two mutually exclusive investments with the same initial cash outlay and the same cumulated expected cash flows

But with different cash flow profiles

Exhibit 6.8 describes the two investments Exhibit 6.9 shows the computation of the two investments net present values

Chapter 6

21

EXHIBIT 6.8: Cash Flows for Two Investments with CF0 = $1 Million and k = 0.10.

Chapter 6

22

EXHIBIT 6.9a: Present Value of Cash Flows for Two Investments Using a Calculator.

Figures from Exhibit 6.8

Chapter 6

23

EXHIBIT 6.9b: Present Value of Cash Flows for Two Investments Using a Calculator.

Figures from Exhibit 6.8

Chapter 6

24

EXHIBIT 6.9c: Present Value of Cash Flows for Two Investments Using a Spreadsheet.

Figures from Exhibit 6.8

Chapter 6

25

EXHIBIT 6.9d: Present Value of Cash Flows for Two Investments Using a Spreadsheet.

Figures from Exhibit 6.8

Chapter 6

26

Because investors are risk averse, they will require a higher return from riskier investments

As a result, a projects opportunity cost of capital will increase as the risk of the investment increases

By discounting the project cash flows at a higher rate, the projects net present value will decrease

Chapter 6

27

EXHIBIT 6.10: Cash Flows for Two Investments with CF0 = $1 Million; k = 0.12 for Investment C and k = 0.15 for Investment D.

Exhibit 6.10 describes two investments with the same initial cash outlay, and identical expected cash-flow streams but different opportunity costs of capital.

Chapter 6

28

Figures from Exhibit 6.10

Exhibit 6.11 shows the computation of the two investments net present values.

Hawawini & Viallet Chapter 6

29

Figures from Exhibit 6.10

Chapter 6

30

Figures from Exhibit 6.10

Chapter 6

31

Figures from Exhibit 6.10

Chapter 6

32

Additive Property

Assuming that the two projects are independent

Makes it easier to estimate the impact on the net present value of a project of changes in its expected cash flows, or in its cost of capital (risk)

An investments positive NPV is a measure of value creation to the firms owners only if the project proceeds according to the budgeted figures

Consequently, from the managers perspective, a projects positive NPV is the maximum present value that they can afford to lose on the project and still earn the projects cost of capital

Chapter 6

33

Capital rationing when managers have to decide which positive NPV project to accept and which to reject

Chapter 6

34

EXHIBIT 6.12: Cash Flows, Present Values, and Net Present Values for Three Investments of Unequal Size with k = 0.10.

Exhibit 6.12 describes the analysis of three investment projects of different sizes.

Chapter 6

35

If there is a limit on the total capital available for investment, the firm cannot simply select the project(s) with the highest NPV

Must first find out the combination of investments with the highest present value of future cash flows per dollar of initial cash outlay

Can be done using the projects profitability index

Chapter 6

36

Figures from Exhibit 6.12

Chapter 6

37

The firm should first rank the projects in decreasing order of their profitability indexes

Then select projects with the highest profitability indexes until it has allocated the total amount of funds at its disposal

A firm operating under capital constraints should not make todays investment decisions without considering investments that may be available tomorrow

May be difficult because information about tomorrows investments may not be readily available today

The profitability index may be the second-best solution

Chapter 6

38

Comparison should be made between sequences of projects such that all sequences have the same duration

In many instances, the calculations may be tedious

Possible to convert each projects stream of cash outflows into an equivalent stream of equal annual cash flows with the same present value as the total cash-outflow stream Called the constant annual-equivalent cash flow or annuityequivalent cash flow Then, simply compare the size of the annuities

Chapter 6

39

EXHIBIT 6.14a: Cash Outflows and Present Values of Cost for Two Investments with Unequal Life Spans.

Chapter 6

40

EXHIBIT 6.14b: Cash Outflows and Present Values of Cost for Two Investments with Unequal Life Spans.

Chapter 6

41

EXHIBIT 6.15: Original and Annuity-Equivalent Cash Flows for Two Investments with Unequal Life Spans.

Figures from Exhibit 6.14 and Appendix 6.1

Exhibit 6.15 shows how to apply the annuityequivalent cash flow approach to the choice between the two machines.

Hawawini & Viallet Chapter 6

42

Although the net present value criterion can be adjusted for some situations, in other situations the required adjustments to the net present value criterion are far too complex to be easily implemented

It ignores the opportunities to make changes to projects as time passes and more information becomes available

NPV rule is a take-it-or-leave-it rule

A project that can adjust easily and at a low cost to significant changes such as:

Marketability of the product Selling price Risk of obsolescence Manufacturing technology Economic, regulatory, and tax environments

Will contribute more to the value of the firm than indicated by its NPV

Will be more valuable than an alternative project with the same NPV, that cannot be altered as easily and as cheaply

Hawawini & Viallet Chapter 6

43

Discussed using the designer desk lamp project of Sunlight Manufacturing Company (SMC) as an illustration Can affect its net present value Demonstrated using an extended version of the designer-desk lamp project

Although the project was planned to last for five years, we assume now that SMCs management will always have the option to abandon the project at an earlier date

Depending on if the project is a success or a failure

Chapter 6

44

EXHIBIT 6.16: Expected Cash Flows, Years 2 through 5, and Their Present Values for Success and Failure of the SMC Designer Desk Lamp.

The expected cash flows under the two scenarios are shown in Exhibit 6.16. Given the option to abandon the project before its expected economic life and assuming a certain probability of the failure scenario, the projects NPV can be recalculated, which may or may not affect the investment decision.

Chapter 6

45

The above options are not the only managerial options embedded in investment projects

Thus, NPV of a project will always underestimate the value of an investment project The larger the number of options embedded in a project and the higher the probability that the value of the project is sensitive to changing circumstances, the greater the value of those options and the higher the value of the investment project itself

Chapter 6

46

Managers should at least conduct a sensitivity analysis to identify the most salient options embedded in a project, attempt to value them, and exercise sound judgment

Chapter 6

47

EXHIBIT 6.17: Steps Involved in Applying the Net Present Value Rule.

Chapter 6

48

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