Discuss Iran nuclear ambition Will it become a nuclear weapon state?

SCOPE
Introduction Iran Geography Iran Nuclear Program Iran Nuclear Background Iran Ambitions IRAN Nuclear program is a threat Conclusion- Iran as a Nuclear State
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Introduction
On December 3, 2007, the U.S NIC released an unclassified summary of the NIE entitled "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities." Although the assessment states that Iran's "nuclear weapons program" was halted in 2003, Moreover, other statements in the document, along with extensive evidence in the public domain, suggest that other activities relevant to the possible production of nuclear weapons continue.

Iran is going to possess the nuclear weapon in the year 2010

concerns call for continued international pressure on Iran

more intensive inspections of its nuclear program

Who is IRAN?
Is it going to be a nuclear state?

Persian Gulf

Iran is bordered on the north by Iran is a Regional Power, and Armenia, Azerbaijan Iran an important the officially position holds and Turkmenistan. Islamic Republic of in International Energy As Irana country in Iran isand World Security is a littoral state ofreserves of Westernthe Caspian Economy Asia, The Petroleum and Natural Sea, Kazakhstan Gaz . 18th largest country and is aworld in terms in the founding member Iran Russia are also of area NAM, Iran's directOIC and ofthe UN, at OPEC. The political system neighbors to the 1,648,195 km,Its of Iran, based on north. Iran is equals area roughly the 1979 constitution bordered The highest that of the United on the state authority is the east byLeader. Shia Islam Kingdom, France, Supreme Afghanistan and Pakistan, on Spain, and Germany is the official religion and the south by the combined, official Persian is the or language. Persian Gulf and the somewhat more Gulf of Oman,in the of than the US state Iran ranks second on the westIran has a Alaska.. by gas reserves world in natural Iraq and also the and onsecond inover population of Oil reserves. It is by northwest OPEC'sa 70 million .It is 2nd largest oil of particular Turkey. exporter. Itis country Tehran has the potential to become an the capital, the significance owing Energy Superpower country's largestthe to its location in Iran cityholdsEastof the world's Middle 10% and and the proven oil reserves and 15% political, cultural, central Eurasia. of its Gas. commercial and industrial center

Iran Geography Middle East

Iran Nuclear Program

US
build nuclear weapons

IRAN
nuclear program is to generate electricity to provide fuel for medical reactors

the revival of the program in 2006 convince Russia and China to agree to stepped- Iran's nuclear work is up sanction against Iran meant simply to enhance its negotiating position Israel: hold off on any military strike against Enhance negotiating Tehran position

IRAN Nuclear Background Date Action

Iran's first nuclear program began under the shah

1960 1968
1970 1974 1979 1980-88 1995 2002 2003

Iran signs and ratified the NPT

Assistance from France & Germany

Atomic Energy Organization of IRAN

Islamic Revolution stops programs IranIraq War, use of Chemical Weapons Iran signs a nuclear deal with Russia Two secret nuclear sites discovered Traced of enriched weapon- Iran suspended

10 Jan 06 Iran resumes enrichment Aug 2006 Heavy water plant at Arak

IRAN Nuclear Background Date Dec 2006 Mac 2008 Action

UN sanction on IRAN- resolution 1737

Resolution 1803 against Iran refusing to suspend of uranium enrichment

Feb 2009 Plans to install 50000 Uranium centrifuges April 2009 US will negotiate with Iran May 2009 Iran tested missile with range 1,200 miles

Iran continues to insist on the peaceful character of its nuclear program. However, along with achieving progress in enriching uranium, Tehran has developed missiles capable of reaching Israel as well as parts of eastern and southeastern Europe. These developments have increased the international concern over its nuclear program

Location of known Iranian nuclear facilities

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IRAN Nuclear Threat

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Iranian Long term ambitions (According to US)

Establish hegemony in Middle East Establish Shia ascendancy over that hegemony Eject West from the region Control Resources Destroy Israel

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Short Medium term goals (According to US)

Subvert Lebanon to threaten the region Shia convert southern Syria Destabilize Saudi Arabia Maintain progress toward nuclear status Increase influence in Afghanistan Control Iraq by Shia Completely control the Strait of Hormuz

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IRAN Nuclear program remains a major threat

In the beginning of 2007, the nuclear technology expansion by the Iran government has obtained major effect from the America, UK, Germany and France. The America are very excited to stop the Iranian effort to develop the nuclear technology for it peace aims. Nevertheless, the America that Iran would at last change its nuclear technology development into making of a nuclear weapon. the Iranian government decided to reactivate the research over the nuclear development in Natanz. This nuclear station had been closed by (IAEA) for almost four years.

Without a doubt, Iran is reconstruction its nuclear infrastructure. A threat many believe has more direct consequences for the US than the weapon of mass destruction threat that the Pentagon is so consumed with., domestic and international politics, social and economy.

IRAN Nuclear program remains a major threat

Iran as one of the dominant powers in Middle East region is developing their capability to be a superpower. it will give certain impacts and implications toward the world especially Middle East Region in economic and security matters. Does Iran really have the nuclear capability or it is only the propaganda made by its enemy.

America has accused the Iran government of violating the declaration signed by IAEA.
The blame was aimed to bring along the Iran nuclear case to the UN Security Council would further consider and decide to end the Iran plan of its uranium enrichment.

Until now Iran has owned nine strategic facilities. Iran nuclear technology sites have been develop progressively.

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SANCTIONS
1995 - US imposes oil and trade sanctions over Iran's alleged sponsorship of Terrorism", seeking to acquire nuclear arms and hostility to the Middle East process. 2006 (Oct) - President Bush signs Freedom Support Act into law, authorizing sanctions against any country that provides support for Iran's nuclear program. 2006 (Dec) - UN Security Council votes to impose sanctions on Iran's trade in sensitive nuclear materials and technology.

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SANCTIONS CONTD.
2007 (Mar) - IAEA says Iran failed to meet a deadline to suspend uranium enrichment, UN Security Council imposes second round of sanctions. 2007 (Oct) - US imposes unilateral sanctions against Irans Military. 2008 - UN Security Council imposes third round of economic and trade sanctions on Tehran. But offers incentives if Iran halts Uranium enrichment. Russia refrains from supporting further sanctions.

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SANCTIONS CONTD.
2010 (June)- UN Security Council imposes fourth round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme, including tighter financial curbs and an expanded arms embargo. 2010 (September) - US imposes unprecedented sanctions against eight senior Iranian officials for human rights violations. 2011- London imposes tighter Economic Sanctions. 2012 - European Union adopts an oil embargo against Iran over its nuclear programme.

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SANCTIONED ORGANIZATIONS
Aerospace Industries Organization Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mesbah Energy Company Bank Sepah Defence Industries Organization Bank Melli Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics

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REACTIONS OF THE REST OF THE WORLD

India India has said it will continue buying Iranian oil. Supports Tehrans right to develop its civil nuclear energy program. China Sanctions should be only carried out on basis of facts and evidence. Pressure and military threats cannot resolve problems, but may only worsen the situation

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European Union The European Union formally adopted an oil embargo on Monday against Iran and a freeze of the assets of the country's central bank. The foreign ministers agreed to a review of the effects of the sanctions, to be completed by May 1. But many countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey will be heavily affected. Also there is almost a 2 billion$ Iranian debt owed to Italian energy giant Eni for upstream production work.

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Russia Russia opposes any military strikes or unilateral sanctions against Iran. It would cripple the country's economy and trigger popular discontent. Turkey The Turkish government seeks to increase trade volume with Iran to 30 billion U.S. dollars in 2015. Turkey is willing to host a new round of talks between Iran and world's major countries over its nuclear program.

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Conclusion(is Iran going to be a nuclear State?)

Thus since its infancy stage until current development of its nuclear program, Irans ambition to be a nuclear state is becoming a reality. As highlighted earlier on, Irans ambitions to be a nuclear state since the Shah period. Iran feels its valuable oil which is draining out, should be used for high-value products, not simple electricity.

Despite being imposed by UN Security Council resolutions and the U.S-led economic sanctions, even with the threat of additional sanctions looming, Iran is not backing down.

On the contrary, many of Irans success, including access to the nuclear fuel producing of heavy water, have been achieved under sanctions. In fact, determination to continue the nuclear program and retaliate against any Western attack is strong in Iran. Iranian President Ahmadinejad said They should know that the Iranian nation will not yield to pressure and will not let its rights be trampled on.

Hence, during the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution early this year, he proclaimed, probably the eight times in recent years, Iran is now a nuclear state. He added that Iran is capable to enrich the nuclear fuel to twenty percent and the uranium to higher levels.

Conclusion(is Iran going to be a nuclear State?)

In conclusion, despite being the subject of the most extensive and intensive campaign of denial, obstruction, and the international community has been subject to bias, Iran has exercised its inalienable right to peaceful nuclear technology in becoming a nuclear state. Iran believes it has a legal right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the NPT, a right which in 2005 the U.S, UK, Germany and France began to assert had been forfeited by a clandestine nuclear program that came to light in 2002.

Accordingly, Iran does have the right to acquire a full nuclear fuel cycle for peaceful purposes under the terms of the NPT, and the Iranian government has been able to find ways to justify all of its activities to date as research, related to nuclear power. It has claimed that its concealed and secret efforts are the result of its fears that the U.S or Israel might attack. Additionally, Iran compares its treatment as a signatory to the NPT with three nuclear-armed nations that have signed the NPT Israel, India and Pakistan. Each of these nations developed an indigenous nuclear weapons capability: Israel by 1966, India by 1974, and Pakistan by 1990.