Green Economy di Indonesia: Sekarang dan Prospek ke depan

Arief Anshory Yusuf UNPAD

Semiloka Green Economy BAPPENAS 22 November 2011

Green economy

In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive (UNEP, 2011).

Green Economy
Low carbon Resource Socially efficient inclusive

Apakah ekonomi Indonesia selama ini

LOW CARBON?

Carbon Intensity: Apakah ekonomi Indonesia low-carbon?

CO2 emissions (kg per 2000 US$ of GDP) 2008 excl. Land use change Rank 174/211

China Indonesia Thailand Malaysia 1.7 1.6 1.5

2.7

2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Brunei Darussalam

1.1
0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4

World
Australia Korea, Rep. Singapore
2005
2000

Source: WDI database

Energi Indonesia semakin kotor: Decoupling Emissions Growth (IPAT)

Growth 1971-2004
10% 8% 6%

4%
2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Australia China Indonesia Mexico Thailand World

C
Source: Authors calculation using EIA database

y=Y/P

e=E/Y

c=C/E

C = carbon emissions, P = population, E = energy C = P(Y/P)(E/Y)(C/E) = Pyec

Apakah ekonomi Indonesia selama ini

RESOURCE EFFICIENT?

Resource efficiency Natural resource depletion/GNI - 2008

Rank 150/200

Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Australia 8.30 7.52

13.23 13.05

25
20

India

6.78
6.45 5.50 5.46 4.47

China
15

Canada
10 5 0

Thailand World
1982
1970 1974 1978 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

Source: WDI database

$ billion Natural Wealth

Per capita Ranking 67 Our Per capita Income, Ranking 116

1 United States 2 China 3 Russian Federation 4 India 5 Brazil 6 Canada

4,163 2,807 2,506 1,959 1,149 1,070

7 Iran, Islamic Rep.

8 Mexico

898
832

9 Indonesia
10 Venezuela, RB 11 Nigeria 12 Australia 13 United Kingdom
Source: World Bank (2011)

716
658 513 464 422

Indonesia

0.49 1.65 7.26 9.50 9.69 9.86

Genuine Saving - %GNI 2008

Australia World Canada

25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Vietnam

Mexico
Cambodia Malaysia Thailand China 0.00

11.52
16.36 17.79 36.45 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00

Source: WDI database

Apakah ekonomi Indonesia selama ini

SOCIALLY INCLUSIVE?

Income per capita has been rising and poverty incidence (%) has been declining
1800 1600 1400 Income Per Capita (US$) 1200 Income Per Capita (US$) Kemiskinan (%) < 1996 Kemiskinan (%) > 1996 60 50

40
1000 800 30 20 10 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

600
400 200 0

Kemiskinan (%)

Yet, inequality remains, if not increasing

0,375 0,365

G I N I RASI O Ta hun 2002 - 2009

0,36 0,36 0,35

0,37

R atio

0,355 0,345 0,335 0,325 0,315

0,33 0,32 0,32 0,33

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Inequality may have been worse due to the problematic statistics

Note: Dashed line is the re-estimated lorenz curve as described in Yusuf, Arief Anshory, (2006), On the reassessment of inequality in Indonesia: household survey or national account?, No 200605, Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS), Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University.

The rate of reduction in number of poor people has decelerated, it is stagnant with more decent standard
200 180 160
Million of Poor People National

$1.25/day
$2/day 120

140 120 100 80

60 40 20 0

1993

1970

1976

1978

1980

1981

1984

1987

1990

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Note: With $2/day, Indonesia is 51%, Cameron is 51%, Ivory Coast is 49%,

2010

200T per tahun untuk subsidi BBM+listrik

50T untuk pengentasan kemiskinan

Low carbon

Resource Socially efficient inclusive

Apakah cara kita mengalokasikan sumber daya sudah sejalan dengan green economy?

Apakah ekonomi kita mempunyai prospek menjadi

Low carbon Resource Socially efficient inclusive
Tentu saja.

We started doing important steps

Mainstreaming green economy into Long term national development plan (UU no 17/2007)
the green and everlasting Indonesia

Law no 32/2009 on Environmental Protection and Management

the use of economic instrument to achieve sound environmental management without sacrificing economic growth.

The National Action Plan (RAN-GRK)

26%-41% GHG emissions reduction

And other initiatives.

Will we succeed?

LETS HOPE SO.

How to increase our chance

You cannot manage what you cannot measure
Invest in better environmental statistics Invest in capacity for environmental valuation

Get the price rights

Phase fuel subsidy, stop hesitating, break political barriers.

Coordinate better

SEKIAN DAN TERIMA KASIH