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Expectations - You will understand the issues (benefits and penalties) associated with UAV supportability and safety.
2002 LM Corporation
12-1
Operations & Support and Safety are Key Cost Drivers for the Overall UAV System - Operations & Support (O&S) Represent the Largest Percentage of the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) - Reliability & Maintainability Attributes of the Air Vehicle Drive Support Manpower - Affordability Issues Due to High Attrition Rates Constrain UAV Market Penetration (Military and Civilian) O&S and Safety Issues Need to be Seriously Addressed During Pre-Concept Design - It is Not Something That Can be Delayed - You Get What You Pay For
2002 LM Corporation
12-2
Definitions
The probability that an item can perform its intended function for a specified interval under stated conditions. Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) (ususally in terms of flight hours) Failure Rate (failures per unit time) Probability (expressed as a decimal or percentage) Tasks and Responsibilities During Pre-Conceptual Design* Allocations Predictions Functional Failure Modes & Effects Analysis Design Reviews Trade Studies * For purposes of this course, a discussion of the reliability issues and your proposed approach will suffice
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-3
Definitions
The measure of the ability of an item to be retained or restored to a specified condition when maintenance is performed by personnel having specified skill levels, using prescribed procedures and resources, at each prescribed level of maintenance and repair. Mean Time to Repair average of repair times Maintenance Manhours Per Flight Hour Crew Size Average number of individuals required to accomplish the maintenance action Tasks and Responsibilities During Pre-Conceptual Design* Allocations Predictions Time Line Analyses (Combat Turns, etc.) Design Reviews Trade Studies * For purposes of this course, a discussion of maintainability issues and your proposed approach will suffice
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-4
Definitions
Supportability The degree to which system design characteristics and planned logistics resources, including manpower, meet system requirements.
Direct Maintenance Manpower per Aircraft Logistics Footprint (# transport aircraft sorties to deploy squadrons support equipment, manpower and spares) Mission Capable Rate Not Mission Capable Supply (NMCS) Rate
Support Locations
Main Base
Forward Base
Emergency Base
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-6
Support Concept
Contractor
Organic
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ac/row/cl-327.htm
http://www.fas.org/irp/program/collect/predator.htm
2002 LM Corporation
12-7
Design of UAV Systems What Kinds of R&M Analyses Are Expected in Pre-Conceptual Design?
Acquisition & Life Cycle Phases
Concept & Technology Development System Development & Demonstration OT&E IOC Production & Deployment Operations & Support
Parametric Estimates
Weight Parts Count Surface Area Duty Cycle Sortie Length
Field Data
End Users & Maintainers Production Configuration
Predictions
Assessments
2002 LM Corporation
12-8
Size
Micro, Mini, or Larger? Proximity to Ground Interface with Loading Equipment Access to Daily Servicing Points Engine Removal Transportation / Deployment Considerations Hangar Space Refueling Times / Turnaround Times
CONOPS
Basing
2002 LM Corporation
Endurance
Ground Segment
Deployment of Ground Stations LOS vs. BLOS Comms Mission Planning for Satellite Coverage Coordination with ATC Coordination with Ground Crews
Design for Testability How Much Redundancy Can You Afford? How Much Safety Analysis Can You Afford? Approach to Support
12-10
2002 LM Corporation
Man-Rated Systems Are Eliminated Crew Station Instruments Cockpit Structure / Boarding Ladders Canopy O&S Cost Reduction of 8% Ejection Seat / Escape Provisions in Personnel Alone! Throttle/Control Stick/Rudder Pedal Control Panels No Egress Shop Crew Station Environmental Controls Eliminate Survival Skill Heating/Cooling Smaller, Less Costly ECS Pressurization No LOX Consumables Defog Less Support Equipment Oxygen System LOX or OBOGS Regulator Emergency/Survival Equipment
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-11
2002 LM Corporation
12-12
Proximity to Ground For Most UCAVs Complicates Weapons Loading Innovative Loading Schemes Can Mitigate Restricted Access Consider Hoists; Alternate Lifting Devices X-45 Demo Uses Weapons Dolly and Ejectors Mounted on Weapon Robotic Loading May Help Considered By Navy for Ships Engine Removal Also Challenging Drop Down or Lift Out? Existing SE Sufficient?
2002 LM Corporation
12-13
Storable UAVs Can Be Airlifted in Individual Storage Containers USAF UCAV Concept is to Deploy via C-17 (See Demo Below) Autonomous Aerial Refueling and/or Rearming May Allow Self-Ferry
2002 LM Corporation
12-14
Endurance Benefits
Pilot Physical Limitations Limit Effective Sortie Length Endurance UAV Sortie Durations May Approach 48-60 Hours! Ground Operators Can Work in Shifts UAVs Have Potential to Remain Aloft Indefinitely
Requires Autonomous Refueling Technology 4 to 5 UCAVs Can Displace 24 Manned Fighters in 24-Hour CAP
Longer Sorties Mean Less Wear and Tear Cycle-Related Fatigue and Duty Cycles Reduced
80% of Fighter Failures are Constant on a Per-Sortie Basis
14.00 12.00
MFTBM1
Endurance Benefits
Pilot Physical Limitations Limit Effective Sortie Length Endurance UAV Sortie Durations May Approach 48-60 Hours! Ground Operators Can Work in Shifts UAVs Have Potential to Remain Aloft Indefinitely
Requires Autonomous Refueling Technology
Longer Sorties Mean Less Wear and Tear Cycle-Related Fatigue and Duty Cycles Reduced
80% of Fighter Failures are Constant on a Per-Sortie Basis
2002 LM Corporation
12-17
Preprogrammed Routes Using dGPS Accurate, Hands-Off Requires Site Survey, Detailed Mission Planning Likely Requires Deconflicted Ops with Other Aircraft
Remote Control By Ground Crew Good Ground Situational Awareness Adds Complexity to Air Vehicle Design
Remote Control By Ground Operator Good Ground Situational Awareness Minimal Impact on Manpower Hardware Intensive
Needs On-Board Camera
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-18
Redundancy Considerations
Consider Life Cycle Cost Sensitivities Maintenance Savings vs. Increased Loss of Aircraft Consider Mission Reliability Requirements
For Flight Critical Systems (failure = crash): Generally required to fail operational/fail safe (at a minimum) Triplex Redundancy is Most Cost-Effective on $/Flight Hour Basis Extremely High Reliability (>10,000 hrs MTBF) or Extremely Low Cost (<$1000/Channel) Are Required for Dual Redundancy to Be Cost Effective For Mission Critical Systems (mission fails or degraded) Generally required to fail operational (albeit degraded) Typically back-up most mission critical systems (radios, GPS, etc)
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-19
100000.00 10000.00 1000.00 100.00 10.00 1.00 1 2 3 4 Level of Redundancy MTBF = 2000 MTBF = 3000 MTBF = 5000 MTBF = 8000 MTBF = 10000
Module Cost/Channel: $18,400 Average Repair Cost: $6000 Average Sortie Duration: 4 .5 Hours UAV Unit Cost: $10 Million Critical Failure Rate: 1/3 of MTBF
Training Concept
Manned Aircraft Pilots Maintain Proficiency By Flying Require Minimum of 30 Flight Hours/Month Most Flight Hours In Lifetime are for Training UAV/UCAV Operator Interface Is Unique Actual vs. Simulated Flight Similar Keep UCAV In Storage Until War
Reduced Spares/Consumables
2002 LM Corporation
12-21
Next Subject
UAV & UCAV RM&S Considerations Supportability Attributes Subsystem Considerations Manpower O&S Cost
UAV Safety Lessons Learned
2002 LM Corporation
12-22
Fighter*
Manned QF-106 Drones* Unmanned QF-106 Drones* Pioneer UAV** Hunter UAV** Predator UAV**
*Class A Cumulative Mishap Rate, 1997 **Loss Rate (non-combat)
4.5
130 70 167 140 27
Lower Unit Cost Does Not Necessarily Mean Lower Life Cycle Cost! and theres a reason!
Cost Per Vehicle Typical Fighter General Aviation Low Cost UAV High Cost UAV $25-50M $200K $1.0M
$3.0M
27
Global Hawk Goal is 10 per 100K Flight Hours 2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-24
Carefully Weigh Risk When Considering Redundancy Establish Acceptable Mission Reliability Goals Trade Cost of Redundancy vs. Reduced Attrition Affordability is Usually Achieved at Higher Risk Recognize UAV/UCAV Mishap Rates Will Probably Exceed Manned Tactical Aircraft Mishap Rates As a Minimum, Consider Redundancy for: Data Links Flight Controls Propulsion System Controls
m of n
? ? ?
Utilize Mil-Spec or Commercial Aviation-Grade Parts Already Qualified for Operating Environment (Temperature, Altitude, Vibration, EMI, etc.) Better Reliability May Obviate Need for Expensive Qualification Testing Expensive for a Reason
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-25
Use Qualified Test Pilot During Testing Understands Aerodynamics & Engineering First Responsibility is to Save Aircraft Trained to React to Unexpected Events Place Increased Emphasis on Operator-Vehicle Interface Provide Adequate Fault Annunciation to Operator Must Be Immediately Recognized Should Indicate Appropriate Operator Response Consider Operator Workload In Emergency Conditions Consider Operator Skill Level (Pilot, Novice, etc.) Segregate Houskeeping & Maintenance Functions from Flight Ops Functions Train Emergency Procedures! (Especially for Flight Test) Adequately Test Hardware Prior to First Flight End-to-End Comms Loop (Including AV Antenna Multipath) Hardware-In-the-Loop Testing is Critical
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-26
Software Configuration Control Hazard Analysis Should Include Software Hazards A Software Change is a Configuration Change! Utilize Software-In-The-Loop Testing Automate Repetitive Functions to Alleviate Operator Fatigue and Improve Safety Plan Adequate Schedule for Software Test
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-27
Simplification Fewer parts means less things to fail Standardization Quality and tolerances all match Stress/Strength Derating Particularly for avionics Function Isolation Improved mission reliability Packaging Design Hermeticity, vibration isolation, etc. Redundancy Judicious use! Producibility and Tolerance Evaluation Quality issue Local Environment Evaluation Avoid hot spots Sensitivities Trade studies Drift and Degradation Design for it or test for it Development Test, test, test Reliability Design Checklists Lessons learned
2002 LM Corporation
12-28
10.0
7-9
5.0
MFHBF (Inherent )
3.0
1.0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Parametric Data Shows Manpower Requirements are a Function of Aircraft Speed, Weight (EW + Wpay) and Type
UAV Comparison - Global Hawk fits overall manpower parametric - Predator falls well outside other aircraft norms Use this parametric to estimate maintenance manpower required for your design projects
2002 LM Corporation
Predator
Global Hawk
12-30
Homework
Assess RMSS for your project (1) What redundancy levels do you think are appropriate the following subsystems - Flight control computer - Air vehicle up link - Payload down link (2) From the internet, Janes or other sources pick a UAV that you think is closest to your project UAV - What are the maximum speed and empty and payload weights? (3) Estimate the number of personnel required to maintain it Submit your homework via Email to Egbert by COB next Thursday. Document all calculations
2002 LM Corporation Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability & Safety 12-31