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..
: ..
2001
II
III
IV
VI
1.
2.
3.
4.
(Impulse Waves)
5.
(Diagonal Triangles)
6.
(Zigzags)
7.
(Flats)
8.
(Triangles)
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
1978
28.
29.
30.
, ,
31.
32.
1982 , I
33.
1982 , II
34.
(Grand)
3
.
, . ,
1984
, .
, ,
,
. ,
, .
.
.
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. 1.
1:
,
(Hamilton Bolton) :
,
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, ,
,
,
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- . (Ralph Nelson Elliott) ,
.
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..
, - (DJIA)
,
, , 1940-.
, 100,
, , ,
, 1929
. ,
.
. 1.
,
. 16-19. ,
, 1-15, .
, , ,
.
, , ,
( ,
*), , .
.
, ,
. ,
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, (forms).
, .
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- . ,
.
, . ,
.
.
. , ,
, 1-9 .
, , .
, 1, 3 5, .
(countertrend interruptions) -
, 2 4, .1-1. ,
, .
.. , , , , . ,
-
. ,
.
. 1.
1-1
The Basic Pattern
Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
(wave mode)
: (motive) (corrective).
( *) - ,
( *) -
. .1-1,
, .. 1, 3 5. ,
.
, 2 4 .1-1.
,
, .
, , ,
.
:
. 2.
2:
1938 , 1939
Financial World, .. ,
,
.
.1-2.
1-2
Impulsive (Numbered) Phase ( )
Corrective (Lettered) Phase ( )
, , ,
: ( ), (
*) , ( ,
), . a, b, c
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 .1-2 ( , 2 4 1 3
*).
, .1-2,
, .
, .
, , .
.1-3 , (5) ( ()*).
1-3
. 2.
(5) ,
.
. ,
, .1-3.
(.. 1+2 3+4)
, .. . { (1), (3) (5)
[1]; 1, 3 5 (1), (3) (5); (1)+(2), (3)+(4)
[1]+[2]; 1+2, 3+4 (1)+(2), (3)+(4) *}
: .1-3
, .1-2, , .1-2,
. .1-2 1, 3 5 ,
, 2 4 ,
a, b, c. (1) (2) .1-3
, , [1] [2].
.
,
,
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.1-3 , , ,
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.1-3, (a) (c), , : 1, 2, 3, 4 5.
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.
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( ),
. (a) (c), ,
[2], . (b) ,
(a) [2].
, ,
, , ,
,
.
: (Primary degree),
, .
:
. 3.
3:
1-4
Impulse -
Correction
Complete Market Cycle
,
.1-4. ,
, .
+ =
1+ 1 = 2
5+ 3 = 8
21 + 13 = 34
89 + 55 = 144
.1-2 .1-3 2, .1-4
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10
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( *).
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5-3,
.
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. 15 , .
, , .
.
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, :
Grand Supercycle
Supercycle
Cycle
Primary
Intermediate
Minor
Minute
Minuette
Subminuette
, .
, 1932 ,
, :
1932-1937 1937-1942 1942-1966 1966-1974 1974-19?? -
,
,
. ,
, ,
. -
v , 1 , (3)
, [5] , I , (V) ,
-
.
, , ,
, , :
. 3.
( )
(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)
I II III IV V
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
12345
i ii iii iv v
12345
11
( )
(A) (B) (C)
ABC
[A] [B] [C]
(a) (b) (c)
ABC
abc
abc
,
.
I II III IV V
ABC
I II III IV V
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
ABC
[a] [b] [c]
(a) (b) (c)
12345
abc
12345
abc
. 3.
12
: (action) (reaction).
, ,
. .
(actionary or trend) , ,
, . (reactionary
or countertrend) ,
, , .
(a, c, e, g, i*).
(b, d, f, h*).
.
, .
, .
, ,
, .. .
, -
,
(.1-1, 1-2, 1-3 1-4*) . ,
, ,
.
(. ,
. , .*)
: (Impulse Waves)
. 4.
13
4: (Impulse Waves)
, .
.
2 100% 1 4
100% 3. 3, ,
1.
, .
, , 3
- (1, 3 5) .
, 3 ( ) , 1 5,
( *).
. :
(impulses) (diagonal triangles).
(impulse)
. 4
(.. ) 1.
( ) . ,
, ,
. ,
.
, ( 1, 3 5 )
, 3 . .1-2 1-3 2 .1-4
3 1, 3, 5, A C.
,
.
, , . ,
(guidelines).
, , , , ,
,
24 . .
(Subminuette),
, , . ,
, , ,
, .
,
(extensions).
(Extension)
, .
.
. 4.
14
. ,
, ,
, .
, .
, ,
. .1-5,
, .
.1-5
Bull (Bear) Market ()
First (Third/Fifth) Wave Extension (/)
Extension Not Identified
, ,
. ,
, , , . (
(Primary)
, 13 .)
, , , ,
1.
. 4.
15
3.
,
: 3
4 1. , ,
, .1-6 1-7.
1-6
1-7
1-8
.1-6 4 1. .1-7 3 , 1 5.
, . ,
3 ,
. ,
, .1-8,
3. 3
. ,
14. , .1-8
.
.
,
, .1-9. .1-10
. ,
, 29.
1-9
1-10
. 4.
16
1-11
1-12
Bull/Bear Market Truncation /
1932 . 1962 (.
.1-13). , 3.
1976 (..1-14).
3, 1975 1976.
. 4.
1-13
1-14
: (Diagonal Triangles)
17
. 5.
18
5: (Diagonal Triangles)
(*) , ,
.
. ,
( *)
. , -
, , 4
() 1.
,
.
(Ending Diagonal)
,
, ( 3*)
, .
C A-B-C.
( 9) .
,
.
, 1, 3 5, ,
.
.1-15 1-16
.
1-15
1-16
, ,
, .
, ,
. ,
. 5.
19
, .
, .
(Minor) 1978
, (Minute) - 1976
(Subminuette) 1976 . .1-17 1-18 ,
, ,
. ,
.
1-17
1-18
. 5.
20
1-19
.1-15 1-16,
, .. ,
1 3. .1-17 1-19 .
,
. ,
( *).
, , ,
.
, .
, , -
:
.
, .
(Leading Diagonal)
5 C,
3-3-3-3-3 ( , .. *),
. , ,
1 A ( 6*). 1
4 ,
. , , 5-3-5-3-5.
(. .1-20) , -
. 5.
21
, , -
. ,
( *).
.
,
( *) , (breadth; ..
) .
1-20
.1-21 .
..,
, .
1-21
: (Zigzags)
. 6.
22
6: (Zigzags)
. ,
.
,
,
.
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, ,
, -
.
,
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, .
,
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. . , -
,
. , 9, .
.
.
,
, .
10 .
:
1. (5-3-5) (Zigzags)
:
- (single),
- (double)
- (triple).
2. (3-3-5) (Flats)
:
- (regular),
- (expanded)
- (running).
3. (3-3-3-3-3) (Triangles)
:
- (ascending),
- (descending)
- (symmetrical).
- (reverse symmetrical).
. 6.
23
4. ( ).
(5-3-5)
- ,
A-B-C. 5-3-5 B
A, .1-22 1-23.
1-22
1-23
,
.1-24 1-25. ,
.
1-24
1-25
- ,
.
, , (. .1-
. 6.
24
26) . ,
.
S&P500 1977 1978 (. .1-27) ,
, ,
1975 (. .1-28). ,
.
1-26
1-27
1-28
. 6.
25
..
(. ) . ,
X, A-B-C-X-A-B-C. ,
. , ,
, .
, :
, W, Y Z ,
W-X-Y (-X-Z). W
, Y , Z . (A,
B C , D E . )
- , . X
, , .
: (Flats)
. 7.
26
7: (3-3-5)
(*) ,
3-3-5, .1-29 1-30. , A,
, , ,
B, ,
A. C,
, ,
.
1-29
1-30
- , , .1-31 1-32.
1-31
1-32
,
. ,
,
. ( *),
. ,
.
, , . ,
, ,
9.
, -- ,
3-3-5. ,
3-3-5 .
, ,
, .1-29 .. 1-32. ,
, ,
.
. 7.
27
("irregular") , ,
, .
3-3-5
, ,
, .1-33 1-34 . 1-35
1-36. DJIA 1973
(.
.1-37).
1-33
1-34
1-35
1-36
1-37
. 7.
28
3-3-5,
, , ,
, ,
, , , .1-38 .. 1-41.
, ,
. ,
, , ,
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.
,
. , .
(
*).
. ,
, 8.
1-38
1-39
1-40
1-41
: (Triangles)
. 8.
29
8: (Triangles)
, , ,
(volatility; -,
, *).
, 3-3-3-3-3 a-bc-d-e. ,
b d. -
, , .
: .
: , ,
.1-42. .
, .1-42,
.
1-42
Corrective Wave (Horizontal) Triangles ()
. 8.
30
1-43
.
, ,
( ) ,
. ,
( ) , .
, , , ,
. 1973 1977 (. .1-44).
, ,
( ,
*), ,
, ..
, -- X
( 9).
, 9,
, .
, ,
. ("thrust")
, .
, .
. 8.
31
, . , ,
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, 29.
1-44
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.1-28 6 3-14*), , ,
,
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,
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:
. 9.
32
9:
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W, Y Z. , X,
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.1-45 1-46. ,
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1-45
1-46
1-47
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.1-48. ,
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*),
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. 9.
33
1-48
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12*) .
,
(
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3 + 4 + 4 + 4 .. 5 + 4 + 4 + 4 ..
, 5 (*) ,
9, 13 17 .. 3
(*), , 7 11 .. ,
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, , 7, 11 15 (*)
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, 3 . .1-12 5 .
.1-33 1-34
. 9.
34
, . .1-47 Y
,
W.
,
. ,
, ,
.
, , 20-25,
.
3 4 , (
), , (
), . , ,
:
- 1, 3, 5, , , , W, Y Z.
- 2, 4, B, D X.
,
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- 1, 3 5 ,
- ,
- , ( *),
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- Z .
, ,
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, , . ,
(Subminuette) ,
, ,
. , ,
,
. ()
,
,
. ( 1..9) (
1..15) ,
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,
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. 9.
35
. ,
,
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:
. 10.
36
10:
, 10..15,
. ,
, .
.
(Hamilton Bolton) :
(..*) ,
,
, , , .
, , ,
, ,
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, , ,
( ).
, ,
, , . ,
, .
2 , , 4
. .2-1
, , , .
, .. ,
.
(, );
, .
, , (
*). , .. ,
.
(, )
,
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:
( *) , - .
2 4. ,
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. , 3,
1 5, - .
. 10.
37
2-1
-b- ,
a-b-c (.2-2) (. .2-3). ,
,
(- *), .
2-2
2-3
. 10.
38
, a-b-c
, a-b-c
, .2-4. ,
.2-5. (*) (, .2-16,
15, 4*).
2-4
2-5
:
. 11.
39
11:
( )
, ,
?. ,
, , ,
,
.
1: 1929-1932 ..
, ,
( 1977 [Gertrude Shirk]*),
(IV).
(Cycle) , (. ).
2: 1942 .
, II (Cycle) ( 1937 1942),
, [4] 1932 1937 (. .5-3).
3: 1962 .
[4] 1962 1956
1949 1959.
, (4) (
[3]). , , ,
, . ,
[4] ,
.
. 11.
40
5-3
4: 1974 .
1974, IV (1966-1974..)
(Cycle) , III 1942 ,
( [4] (Primary) ).
.5-3 , .
,
, ,
. ,
,
, , ,
. ,
DJIA 1978 (
1975), 1974 .
, ,
(. 3), .
,
, .
.
. 11.
41
,
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,
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.2-6. , ,
, . .2-7 ,
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.5-3 [], II, ,
, .2-16 ( 15*) ,
4. .5-3, (IV)
2 (5), V 1921 1929).
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,
.
2-6
:
2-7
. 12.
42
12:
,
.
,
, , .
, 0.618
( 16-25).
(Intermediate) ,
. ,
III (Cycle) 1942 1966 ,
[1] (Primary) 120 49 , 129%,
[5] 438 40 , 80% (= 129% * 0.618),
. .5-3, 324% ,
126 .
(Intermediate) ,
,
. , 1976 , 1 35.24
47 ( *),
5 34.40 47 .
.
(Hamilton Bolton) , ..
, . , ,
, 23
31 1938 . , , ,
,
DJIA, The Wall Street Journal Barron's.
, .
(bar charts;
(, )
*), , ,
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( *).
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43
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, (, ,
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,
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DJIA 1980 . 1920
, . ,
,
, .
, 300
DJIA 5000 300
DJIA 6000. ,
.
,
, .
,
.
, ,
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, 2, .2-8.
. ( ,
, ( *)
)
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.2-9. 3 , , ,
, . ,
, 1, ,
1976 1977 (. .6-12).
,
,
.
. 12.
2-8
44
2-9
Temporary Channel
Final Channel
6-12
(Throw-over )
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
(throw-over).
,
.
. 12.
45
(throw-overs) (throw-under)
4, 5, .2-10
.
.
. ,
,
.
, , .1-17 1-19.
2-10
:
. 13.
46
13:
,
( , *).
, , 1921-1929 ..
(. .2-11) 1932-1937 .. (.
.2-12), , ,
,
. 1920
, 1930
. , (Cycle)
: (
), ,
.
.
2-11
2-12
,
,
, .
,
, ,
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.
( , ),
. 13.
47
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.
(Primary) ,
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.
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2-13
:
48
. 14.
49
14:
.
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,
(Grand) (Subminuette).
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,
.
,
.
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.
, .2-14
2-15. ,
, .
2-14
. 14.
50
. 14.
51
..
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(gaps), , (breadth; *),
,
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,
.
4) (. 11) ,
-
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.
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.
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(Cycle)
, (Primary)
. ,
.
,
.
, ,
.
, . ,
. ,
DJIA 1976 , , ,
,
,
A/D (advance-decline line; /,
*). , ,
( *)
, , ,
(4.5%), ,
!
6) A , ,
. (
*), ,
. . -
, -
.
. 14.
52
2-15
Idealized Corrective Wave
TOP . : ,
. .
: , .
: .
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN ( *).
;
.
NARROW, EMOTIONAL ADVANCE , .
, . .
. .
WORST OF BEAR MARKET . . .
. , ,
.
7) B . , ,
,
( ).
, ( 28) ,
, .
: - ,
, . D ,
.
, .
. 14.
53
. 14.
54
,
. D,
, , .
1970 1973 [D] IV (Cycle)
. ,
, .
, . (
A/D*), , 1972
,
. ,
. [], .
10) E -
.
. ,
,
, ,
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.
:
. 15.
55
15:
, , ,
, . , . ,
.2-16, ,
(Minor) DJIA 1 1978 .
,
( ), , ,
,
, , ,
, ,
. , 914
( *), 0.618
1976-1978 ..
, ,
. ,
. ,
,
.
,
, (market momentum)
. :
,
. ,
.
1-15,
. ,
,
. ,
,
. ,
.
,
,
,
.
( *)
( *), ,
.
, , , ,
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, . ,
.
. , ,
56
2-16
. 15.
. 15.
57
, .
, , , ,
, , -
. ,
. , , ,
, , , ,
!
, .1-14,
:
1-14
17 1976. ,
. ,
. ,
? (Robert Prechter)
. (A.J. Frost; *), ,
Merrill Lynch :
, (DJIA*),
, .
, (Primary) , 1975
, , (Intermediate)
, , . ,
, 1975 1976 - , -,
, 11 , ,
. , , ,
,
956.45
. , ,
24 .
, , ,
.
, ,
(55.51 24 7 ) 1.618 (
, . *) 89.82 .
89.82
1011.96 922 ,
( 920.62) 11 .
,
. 15.
58
, . ,
, , ,
, 950.57 17
, , , . , ,
. , ,
. 1020-1030
(*) 1090-1100 . ,
, .
(.75 .75) 10% ,
100 (1020-1030) 1977 ,
(*).
,
.
(Christopher Morley) :
. , , ,
, .
, , .
, , , ,
, .
. , ,
,
.
. ,
,
.
.
, ,
, (Collins) ,
. (Bolton) ,
, , , .
, , ,
.
.
.
, ,
.
.
.
. 15.
59
,
.. ,
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.
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,
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, (Bolton).
,
. , ,
, 100%.
,
, ,
10 15 20 25 .
.
. 15.
60
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,
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,
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:
. 16.
61
16:
, , .
: "A. Leonardo Fibonacci, Insigne
Matematico Piisano del Secolo XII."
( , )
, (
*).
(, ,
) , . ,
, .
, ,
, . {
. "Mathematical Basis of Wave Theory"
( ) (Walter E. White).}
1200, , , Liber
Abacci { ( ); () *},
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0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 9, -
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Month
Pairs -
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. 16.
64
,
0.618 1, 1.618 1.
, (*),
0.618034 ,
, 0.382, 2.618
(1:2.618*). 1 144 (.3-2).
3-2
, 1 :
0.618+1=1:0.618.
:
0.6182 = 1 - 0.618,
0.6183 = 0.618 - 0.6182,
0.6184 = 0.6182 - 0.6183,
0.6185 = 0.6183 - 0.6184, ..
, :
1.6182 = 1 + 1.618,
1.6183 = 1.618 + 1.6182,
1.6184 = 1.6182 + 1.6183,
1.6185 = 1.6183 + 1.6184, ..
:
1) 1.618 - 0.618 = 1,
2) 1.618 * 0.618 = 1,
3) 1 - 0.618 = 0.382,
4) 0.618 * 0.618 = 0.382,
5) 2.618 - 1.618 = 1,
6) 2.618 * 0.382 = 1,
7) 2.618 * 0.618 = 1.618,
8) 1.618 * 1.618 = 2.618.
. 16.
65
1 2, , 4
, :
3 * 4 = 12; + 1 = 13,
5 * 4 = 20; + 1 = 21,
8 * 4 = 32; + 2 = 34,
13 * 4 = 52; + 3 = 55,
21 * 4 = 84; + 5 = 89, ..
,
, 4. ,
,
4.236, 0.236 , 4.
.
1.618 ( 0.618) .
, , . ,
1975 Smithsonian Magazine:
0.618034 1
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1962 , - S&P 500 1932 1978 .. (
The Media General Financial Weekly).
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. 19.
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. 20.
80
20:
1939 The Financial World ,
. :
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The Financial World
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1896 1932 . ,
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. 20.
81
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83
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. , I 1932 1937 .. 371.6%,
III 1942 1966 .. 971.7% 2.618 .
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:
. 22.
86
22:
,
. , DJIA
1922 1926 .., , 61.8%
1926 1928 .. (1928
). 1932
1937 ..
(Hamilton Bolton) 1957 Bank
Credit Analyst ,
:
, ,
, ,
, V (Primary)
, DJIA 1000 1960
.
(The Elliott Wave Principle A Critical
Appraisal), , , :
1949 ,
1949 . 1956 . (361 DJIA) , 583
(161.8% 361 ) 416, 999
DJIA. , 316 416 777 DJIA.
, 1964 , :
777, , 1000
.
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15:00 995.82
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3.18 .
, , , ,
.
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.
. (A.J. Frost) ,
1962 .,
. , 1970 The
Bank Credit Analyst ,
(Cycle) , , 1967
0.618 1966-67 .. 572. ,
DJIA 1974 ., , 572.20,
1975-76 ..
. 22.
87
. 1976 ,
Merrill Lynch (Robert Prechter)
, ,
, 1.618 ,
922 .
920.63 11 11:00,
.
1977,
744 . 1 1978 . 11:00,
740.30. , ,
740, , :
740 , 1977-78 ..
0.618 1974 1976 ..
, 1022-(1022-572)*0.618=744 {,
31 , 1005-(1005-572)*0.618=737}. , 740 ,
1977-78 .. 2.618
1975 , 1005-(885-784)*2.618=742. ,
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, 1977 ,
740 . :
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.4-12 (
), 4-13 4-14.
(Primary) (Minuette) .
740.30 [2] V
.
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. 22.
4-13
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:
88
. 23.
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. 23.
90
4-16
,
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20 23 ,
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Elliott Wave Theorist ( ) .
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The Elliott Wave Theorist 1983-84 ..
The Elliott Wave Theorist
1983
, . ()
11 , , (
*) (), (b) 73
, 61. , ,
0.618.
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[D]. 19 [C] 80
. 24.
92
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[. . -14].
B-14
3 1984 [ (b), ]
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B-15
. 24.
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4 1984
1984
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Continental Illinois Bank, 1100
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1/32 .
, .
B-16
11 1984
[.
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1984 ,
.
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11 , Wall Street Journal (WSJ) : ,
. 18
:
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. 22 Wall Street Journal
,
. 24.
94
: , 1990; -- Citicorp ; -
.
B-18
2 WSJ , .
! :
, 1985
. : , ,
. WSJ , . Financial
World 27 24
.
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--------- The Elliott Wave Theorist -------- ,
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, ,
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:
. 25.
95
25:
. , ,
, , , ,
,
. ,
.
, ,
.
:
1921 1929
1921 1928
89
1929 1932
34
1932 1933
13
1933 1934
13
1934 1937
34
1932 1937
5 (55 )
1937 1938
13
1929 1942
13
55
1949. 1962.
13
1921. 1942.
21
1960. 1962.
34
, , .
(Walter E. White) 1968 ,
, 1970 .
, : 1949 + 21 = 1970; 1957 +
13 = 1970; 1962 + 8 = 1970; 1965 + 5 = 1970. 1970 , ,
.
1928 ( ) 1928 ()
(Supercycle)
:
1929 + 3 = 1932
1929 + 5 = 1934
. 25.
1929 + 8 = 1937
1929 + 13 = 1942
1928 + 21 = 1949
1928 + 34 = 1962
1928 + 55 = 1982
96
( 1 )
1965 ( ) 1966
() (Cycle) :
1965 + 1 = 1966
1965 + 2 = 1967
1965 + 3 = 1968
1965 + 5 = 1970
1966 + 8 = 1974
1966 + 13 = 1979
1966 + 21 = 1987
9.2 4.5
,
, ,
, , , .
, , 1960 , 1962
1963 , , .
1962 , , [4]
, ,
.
,
, (Robert Rhea),
. (Robert Prechter) Merrill
Lynch 1978 , 17 , A-B-C
1931 0.618 3124 (1), (2) (3).
14
17 63.5 .
, ,
, .
(Samuel T. Benner)
1873 , .
, , ,
. 1975 ,
Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices (-
). , ,
.
, , .
,
.
. 25.
97
, 8-9-10
. DJIA
, 1902 , .
,
8-9-10 .
1902
24 1902 .
1910
2 1910 .
1919
3 1919 .
1929
10
3 1929 .
1937
10 1937 .
1946
29 1946 .
1956
10
6 1956 .
1964
4 1965 .
1973
11 1973 .
,
, , ( ) ()
( , ).
, 1819, 1837, 1857 1873 ..
, , 16-1820, .
20-18-16 ,
, , 16-18-20 ,
. 16-18-20 ,
- (.4-17),
Bank Credit Analyst 1967
.
4-17
. 25.
98
, , ( 70
80*), 1920 , .
, ,
XX .
. , , . ,
,
, ,
8-9-10 377,
1, ..
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8
35
34
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55
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89
89
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143
144
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233
233
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378
377
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+9
+10
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+9
: ,
, ,
.
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1964 , ( )
, , ,
, 1973 1000 DJIA
500..600 1974 1975 .. ,
, . .4-18
, . 10
1964 , ,
, .
. 25.
99
10 1964 .
Mr. A.H. Bolton
Bolton, Tremblay, & Co.
1245 Sherbrooke Street West
Montreal 25, Quebec
:
,
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, (*)
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. 25.
100
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. 26.
101
26:
1977 Forbes
, , (David
Warsh) : ?
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(E.H. Phelps Brown) (Sheila V. Hopkins) :
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.
. 26.
102
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---.
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.
26 27 ,
(Millennium)
(Cycle) . , , -
,
, .
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.
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1789 ,
. .5-1
1789 . 1789
, , , ,
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5-1
. , , ,
, , 476 ..
,
. 26.
103
. 27.
104
27: 1978
(Grand) 1789
, ,
. .5-2
(Supercycle) (I), (II), (III), (IV) (V).
, ,
, ,
, (Gertrude Shirk)
Cycles, .
,
(Cycle) ,
.
(I) , , 1789 - . (II)
, (IV)
. (III)
, ,
. (IV) 1929 1932 ..
.
5-2
(IV) .5-3
, .
. 27.
105
, ,
- 29 1929 .
50% , 1930 ,
(Richard Russell), (Robert Rhea)
, (. 14*).
41.22, 253 1.382
, 89 ( )
( ) .
(V) ( 1978 )
.
(Supercycle) 1932
(V) 1932 (. .5-3).
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.
:
I: 1932 1937 .. -
, . 0.618
1928 1930 .., 1.618
.
II: 1937 1942 .. II [] []
, , .
[]. ,
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. []
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/, 1932 .
.
III: 1942 1965(6) .. ,
1000% . :
1) [4] , [2].
2) [3] (Primary)
.
3) [4]
[1].
4) [1] [5] (129%
80% , 80=129*0.618),
.
IV: c 1965(6) 1974 .. .5-3 IV [4],
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: - 1965
1966 . , , ,
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. 27.
106
1973 1974
, IV
. - :
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. 27.
107
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5-4
:
. 28.
108
28:
, .
, .
.
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.
. U.S. Steel 1929
$260 .
$8.00 . - $22 ,
.
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109
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. , .6-1 .. 6-7,
, . U.S. Steel, Dow Chemical
Medusa
. Eastman Kodak Tandy 1978 --.
Kmart ( Kresge) Houston Oil and Minerals
,
.
6-1
6-2
6-3
6-4
. 28.
6-5
6-6
6-7
:
110
. 29.
111
29:
.
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1977 . ,
. 29.
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.
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1972-73 .. , .
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