Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 138

(Comprehensive Course on the Wave Principle)

(A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter Jr.)

..
: ..
2001

II

III

IV

VI

1.

2.

3.

4.

(Impulse Waves)

5.

(Diagonal Triangles)

6.

(Zigzags)

7.

(Flats)

8.

(Triangles)

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

27.

1978

28.

29.

30.

, ,

31.

32.

1982 , I

33.

1982 , II

34.

(Grand)

3


.
, . ,
1984
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. (*)
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.

. 1.

1:
,
(Hamilton Bolton) :
,
, , ,
, ,
,
,
.
- . (Ralph Nelson Elliott) ,
.
, ,

, , .
.
,
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..
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.

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.
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..
, - (DJIA)
,
, , 1940-.
, 100,
, , ,
, 1929
. ,
.

. 1.

,
. 16-19. ,
, 1-15, .

, , ,
.
, , ,
( ,
*), , .
.

, ,
. ,
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. ,
, (forms).
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- . ,
.
, . ,
.
.
. , ,
, 1-9 .

, , .
, 1, 3 5, .
(countertrend interruptions) -
, 2 4, .1-1. ,
, .
.. , , , , . ,
-
. ,
.

. 1.

1-1
The Basic Pattern
Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
(wave mode)
: (motive) (corrective).
( *) - ,
( *) -
. .1-1,
, .. 1, 3 5. ,
.
, 2 4 .1-1.
,
, .
, , ,
.
:

. 2.

2:
1938 , 1939
Financial World, .. ,
,
.

.1-2.
1-2
Impulsive (Numbered) Phase ( )
Corrective (Lettered) Phase ( )
, , ,
: ( ), (
*) , ( ,
), . a, b, c
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 .1-2 ( , 2 4 1 3
*).
, .1-2,
, .
, .
, , .
.1-3 , (5) ( ()*).

1-3

. 2.

(5) ,
.
. ,
, .1-3.

(.. 1+2 3+4)
, .. . { (1), (3) (5)
[1]; 1, 3 5 (1), (3) (5); (1)+(2), (3)+(4)
[1]+[2]; 1+2, 3+4 (1)+(2), (3)+(4) *}
: .1-3
, .1-2, , .1-2,
. .1-2 1, 3 5 ,
, 2 4 ,
a, b, c. (1) (2) .1-3
, , [1] [2].
.
,
,
. ,
, ,

. ,
.1-3 , , ,
, .

, , [2]
.1-3, (a) (c), , : 1, 2, 3, 4 5.
, (b), , : a, b c.
: ,
.
, .
, ,
( ), ,
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( ),
. (a) (c), ,
[2], . (b) ,
(a) [2].
, ,
, , ,
,
.
: (Primary degree),
, .
:

. 3.

3:

1-4
Impulse -
Correction
Complete Market Cycle
,
.1-4. ,
, .

+ =

1+ 1 = 2

5+ 3 = 8
21 + 13 = 34
89 + 55 = 144
.1-2 .1-3 2, .1-4
. , ( )
,
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.
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.

. 3.

10
.
, , ,
,
( *).
, , ,
5-3,
.

, , ,
. , , ,
. 15 , .
, , .


.

, , .
, :

Grand Supercycle
Supercycle
Cycle
Primary
Intermediate
Minor
Minute
Minuette
Subminuette

, .
, 1932 ,
, :
1932-1937 1937-1942 1942-1966 1966-1974 1974-19?? -

,
,
. ,
, ,
. -
v , 1 , (3)
, [5] , I , (V) ,
-
.
, , ,
, , :

. 3.

( )
(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)
I II III IV V
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
12345
i ii iii iv v
12345

11
( )
(A) (B) (C)
ABC
[A] [B] [C]
(a) (b) (c)
ABC
abc
abc

,
.

[I] [II] [III] [IV] [V]


(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)

[A] [B] [C]


(A) (B) (C)

I II III IV V

ABC

I II III IV V
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

ABC
[a] [b] [c]
(a) (b) (c)

12345

abc

12345

abc

- : 11, 12, 13, 14, 15


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.

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.

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.
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(.., *)
. ,
,
. ,
9 .

. 3.

12


: (action) (reaction).
, ,
. .
(actionary or trend) , ,
, . (reactionary
or countertrend) ,
, , .
(a, c, e, g, i*).
(b, d, f, h*).
.
, .
, .
, ,
, .. .
, -
,
(.1-1, 1-2, 1-3 1-4*) . ,
, ,
.
(. ,
. , .*)
: (Impulse Waves)

. 4.

13

4: (Impulse Waves)


, .
.
2 100% 1 4
100% 3. 3, ,
1.
, .
, , 3
- (1, 3 5) .
, 3 ( ) , 1 5,
( *).
. :
(impulses) (diagonal triangles).
(impulse)
. 4
(.. ) 1.
( ) . ,
, ,
. ,
.
, ( 1, 3 5 )
, 3 . .1-2 1-3 2 .1-4
3 1, 3, 5, A C.
,
.
, , . ,
(guidelines).
, , , , ,
,
24 . .

(Subminuette),
, , . ,
, , ,
, .
,
(extensions).
(Extension)
, .
.

. 4.

14


. ,
, ,
, .
, .
, ,
. .1-5,
, .

.1-5
Bull (Bear) Market ()
First (Third/Fifth) Wave Extension (/)
Extension Not Identified
, ,
. ,
, , , . (
(Primary)
, 13 .)
, , , ,
1.

. 4.

15

3.
,
: 3
4 1. , ,
, .1-6 1-7.

1-6

1-7

1-8

.1-6 4 1. .1-7 3 , 1 5.
, . ,
3 ,
. ,
, .1-8,
3. 3
. ,
14. , .1-8

.
.
,
, .1-9. .1-10
. ,
, 29.

1-9

1-10

. 4.

16

Third Wave Extension of Third Wave Extension



Fifth Wave Extension of Fifth Wave Extension

Five waves of Primary degree
Five waves of Intermediate degree
Five waves of Minor degree
(Truncation)
("failure") , ,
.
. ,
,
, .1-11 1-12.
.

1-11

1-12
Bull/Bear Market Truncation /

1932 . 1962 (.
.1-13). , 3.
1976 (..1-14).
3, 1975 1976.

. 4.

1-13

1-14
: (Diagonal Triangles)

17

. 5.

18

5: (Diagonal Triangles)
(*) , ,
.
. ,
( *)

. , -
, , 4
() 1.
,
.
(Ending Diagonal)
,
, ( 3*)
, .
C A-B-C.
( 9) .
,
.

, 1, 3 5, ,
.
.1-15 1-16
.

1-15

1-16

, ,
, .
, ,
. ,

. 5.

19

, .
, .
(Minor) 1978
, (Minute) - 1976
(Subminuette) 1976 . .1-17 1-18 ,
, ,
. ,
.

1-17

1-18

. 5.

20

1-19
.1-15 1-16,
, .. ,
1 3. .1-17 1-19 .

,
. ,
( *).

, , ,
.
, .
, , -
:
.
, .
(Leading Diagonal)
5 C,
3-3-3-3-3 ( , .. *),
. , ,
1 A ( 6*). 1
4 ,
. , , 5-3-5-3-5.
(. .1-20) , -

. 5.

21


, , -
. ,

( *).
.
,
( *) , (breadth; ..

) .
1-20
.1-21 .
..,
, .

1-21
: (Zigzags)

. 6.

22

6: (Zigzags)


. ,
.
,
,
.
, , . ,
, ,
, -
.
,
, .
, ,
, ,
, .
,
, ,
. . , -
,
. , 9, .
.
.
,
, .
10 .
:
1. (5-3-5) (Zigzags)
:
- (single),
- (double)
- (triple).
2. (3-3-5) (Flats)
:
- (regular),
- (expanded)
- (running).
3. (3-3-3-3-3) (Triangles)
:

- (ascending),
- (descending)
- (symmetrical).
- (reverse symmetrical).

. 6.

23

4. ( ).
(5-3-5)
- ,
A-B-C. 5-3-5 B
A, .1-22 1-23.

1-22

1-23

,
.1-24 1-25. ,
.

1-24

1-25

- ,
.
, , (. .1-

. 6.

24

26) . ,
.
S&P500 1977 1978 (. .1-27) ,
, ,
1975 (. .1-28). ,
.

1-26

1-27

1-28

. 6.

25

..
(. ) . ,
X, A-B-C-X-A-B-C. ,

. , ,
, .
, :
, W, Y Z ,
W-X-Y (-X-Z). W
, Y , Z . (A,
B C , D E . )
- , . X
, , .
: (Flats)

. 7.

26

7: (3-3-5)
(*) ,
3-3-5, .1-29 1-30. , A,
, , ,
B, ,
A. C,
, ,
.

1-29

1-30

- , , .1-31 1-32.

1-31

1-32

,
. ,
,
. ( *),
. ,
.
, , . ,
, ,
9.
, -- ,
3-3-5. ,
3-3-5 .
, ,
, .1-29 .. 1-32. ,
, ,
.

. 7.

27

("irregular") , ,
, .
3-3-5
, ,
, .1-33 1-34 . 1-35
1-36. DJIA 1973
(.
.1-37).

1-33

1-34

1-35

1-36

1-37

. 7.

28

3-3-5,
, , ,
, ,
, , , .1-38 .. 1-41.
, ,
. ,
, , ,
. , ,
, , ,
.
,
. , .
(
*).
. ,
, 8.

1-38

1-39

1-40

1-41

: (Triangles)

. 8.

29

8: (Triangles)
, , ,
(volatility; -,
, *).
, 3-3-3-3-3 a-bc-d-e. ,
b d. -
, , .
: .
: , ,
.1-42. .
, .1-42,
.

1-42
Corrective Wave (Horizontal) Triangles ()

Bull (Bear) Market ()


Contracting (expanding) Triangles ()

. 8.

30

Symmetrical (Top declining, bottom rising) ( ,


)
Descending (Top declining, bottom flat) ( ,
)
Ascending (Top flat, bottom rising) ( ,
)
Reverse symmetrical (Top rising, bottom declining) (
, )
.1-42 ,
, .
, , b
, ,
.1-43. , ,
, ,
.

1-43
.
, ,
( ) ,
. ,
( ) , .
, , , ,
. 1973 1977 (. .1-44).
, ,
( ,
*), ,
, ..
, -- X
( 9).

, 9,
, .
, ,

. ("thrust")
, .
, .

. 8.

31

, . , ,
, ,
. ,
, ,
, 29.

1-44
, .3-15 ( 19,
.1-28 6 3-14*), , ,
,
. ,
, .
,
, (*),
, 5.
,
.
, ,
, ,
. .
:

. 9.

32

9:


. ,

.
, ,
. ,
. , ,
W, Y Z. , X,
, .
- ,
,
.1-45 1-46. ,
. , , ,
, .1-47.

1-45

1-46

1-47
, , ,
.1-48. ,
, ,
.
.
,
, .
, .
. , , (
*),
. ,
.

. 9.

33

1-48
, , ,
,
. ,
, .
, ,
.
, . ,
, .
, ,
, ,
. , (
12*) .
,
(
*).
,
3 + 4 + 4 + 4 .. 5 + 4 + 4 + 4 ..
, 5 (*) ,
9, 13 17 .. 3
(*), , 7 11 .. ,
, ,
, 11 . ,
, ,
. 9, 13 17 (*) , ,
, , 7, 11 15 (*)
, , . -
, .


. ,
, ,
. , .1-11 5 ,
, 3 . .1-12 5 .
.1-33 1-34

. 9.

34

, . .1-47 Y
,
W.
,
. ,
, ,
.
, , 20-25,

.

3 4 , (
), , (
), . , ,
:
- 1, 3, 5, , , , W, Y Z.
- 2, 4, B, D X.
,
. ,
. :
- 1, 3 5 ,
- ,
- , ( *),
- W Y ,
- Z .
, ,
, , ,
.
, ,
. ,
, , . ,

(Subminuette) ,
, ,
. , ,
,
. ()
,
,
. ( 1..9) (
1..15) ,
. .
,
, , , .
, ,

. 9.

35

. ,
,
. , , ,
. ,
, .
:

. 10.

36

10:
, 10..15,
. ,
, .


.
(Hamilton Bolton) :
(..*) ,
,
, , , .
, , ,
, ,
. , ,
, , ,
( ).
, ,
, , . ,
, .

2 , , 4
. .2-1
, , , .
, .. ,
.
(, );
, .
, , (
*). , .. ,
.
(, )
,
.
:
( *) , - .
2 4. ,
. ,
. , ,
. , 3,
1 5, - .

. 10.

37

2-1

-b- ,
a-b-c (.2-2) (. .2-3). ,
,
(- *), .

2-2

2-3

. 10.

38

, a-b-c
, a-b-c
, .2-4. ,
.2-5. (*) (, .2-16,
15, 4*).

2-4

2-5
:

. 11.

39

11:
( )
, ,
?. ,
, , ,
,
.
1: 1929-1932 ..
, ,
( 1977 [Gertrude Shirk]*),
(IV).
(Cycle) , (. ).

2: 1942 .
, II (Cycle) ( 1937 1942),
, [4] 1932 1937 (. .5-3).
3: 1962 .
[4] 1962 1956
1949 1959.
, (4) (
[3]). , , ,
, . ,
[4] ,
.

. 11.

40

5-3
4: 1974 .
1974, IV (1966-1974..)
(Cycle) , III 1942 ,
( [4] (Primary) ).
.5-3 , .

,
, ,
. ,
,
, , ,
. ,
DJIA 1978 (
1975), 1974 .
, ,
(. 3), .
,
, .
.

. 11.

41


,
, ,
,
. ,
.2-6. , ,

, . .2-7 ,
. ( , , ,
. , ,
.5-3 [], II, ,
, .2-16 ( 15*) ,
4. .5-3, (IV)
2 (5), V 1921 1929).

,
, (*) . ,
. ,
. ,

, .
,
.

2-6
:

2-7

. 12.

42

12:

,
.
,
, , .
, 0.618
( 16-25).
(Intermediate) ,
. ,
III (Cycle) 1942 1966 ,
[1] (Primary) 120 49 , 129%,
[5] 438 40 , 80% (= 129% * 0.618),
. .5-3, 324% ,
126 .
(Intermediate) ,
,
. , 1976 , 1 35.24
47 ( *),
5 34.40 47 .
.

(Hamilton Bolton) , ..
, . , ,
, 23
31 1938 . , , ,
,
DJIA, The Wall Street Journal Barron's.
, .
(bar charts;
(, )
*), , ,
, ,
.
. ,
, ,
.
,
, ,
, .
,
( *).
, , , ,
, ,

. 12.

43

.
, . , ,
, ,
.
, .
, (, ,
- ). , ,
.
. ,
.
; . ,
.

,
. ,
, . ,
DJIA 1980 . 1920
, . ,
,
, .
, 300
DJIA 5000 300
DJIA 6000. ,
.

,
, .
,
.
, ,
. , , 1 3,
, 2, .2-8.
. ( ,
, ( *)
)
, ,
, .
. - , ,
3 , ,
.2-9. 3 , , ,
, . ,
, 1, ,
1976 1977 (. .6-12).
,
,
.

. 12.

2-8

44

2-9

Temporary Channel
Final Channel

6-12
(Throw-over )
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
(throw-over).
,
.

. 12.

45

(throw-overs) (throw-under)
4, 5, .2-10
.
.
. ,
,
.
, , .1-17 1-19.

2-10
:

. 13.

46

13:

,
( , *).
, , 1921-1929 ..
(. .2-11) 1932-1937 .. (.
.2-12), , ,
,
. 1920
, 1930
. , (Cycle)
: (
), ,
.
.

2-11

2-12

,
,
, .
,
, ,
. , ,
, , ,
.
( , ),

. 13.

47

, ,
. , .


. ,
.
, .
.
(Primary) ,
. ( )
, .
,
, ,
.

- . ,

. , ,

, . (
,
, .)
,
.

.
-
,
.2-13, . ,
.
, - .
,
, , .
,
, ,
.
,
. ,
, ,
,
- .
( .
,
. , ,
.*)

. 13.

2-13
:

48

. 14.

49

14:
.
, , ,
.

, .

, .
,
(Grand) (Subminuette).
, ,
,
.
,
.
. ,
.
, .2-14
2-15. ,
, .

2-14

. 14.

50

Idealized Elliott Wave Progression


BOTTOM . : , ;
; . : ; ; .
: .
REBOUND . .
TEST OF LOWS .
, . ,
. .
POWERFUL WAVE . . .
. . ,
. .
.
SURPRISING DISAPPOINTMENT .
, . 1.
FINAL ADVANCE .
, 3.
.
1) ,
, , , ,
. (
), , , ,
. (short
selling) , , , ,
. -
.
,
, 1949 (. .5-3*),
, 1962 , , 1962,
1974.
.
2) ,
.
(call option),
. ,
, .
, ..
.
3) , .
, .
.
,
. , ,

. 14.

51

..
. ,
(gaps), , (breadth; *),
,
, , , ,
. ,
( , *).
,
.
4) (. 11) ,
-
. ,
.
, , ,
- .
.
5) , .
, , ,
,
. ,
(Cycle)
, (Primary)
. ,
.
,
.
, ,
.
, . ,
. ,
DJIA 1976 , , ,
,
,
A/D (advance-decline line; /,
*). , ,
( *)
, , ,
(4.5%), ,
!
6) A , ,

. (
*), ,
. . -
, -
.

. 14.

52

2-15
Idealized Corrective Wave
TOP . : ,
. .
: , .
: .
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN ( *).
;
.
NARROW, EMOTIONAL ADVANCE , .
, . .
. .
WORST OF BEAR MARKET . . .
. , ,
.
7) B . , ,
,
( ).
, ( 28) ,
, .
: - ,
, . D ,
.
, .

. 14.

53

1930 -- 19291932 .. (Robert Rhea)


The Story of the Averages (1934; ):
. ,
1929,
. ,
[ ], . ,
, , , 66
1929 . .
1929
.
1961-1962 .. (b) (a)-(b)-(c).
1962 , /,
, . (
A/D*) 1959 .
1966 1968 .. [] (Cycle)
.
,
. DJIA
, ,
.
1977 ,
(DJIA).
( *) . ,
, , . ,
, ,
, .
, (Intermediate)
, (Primary)
, ,
, .
8) C .
.
, ,
. , ,
. . 1930-1932 .. .
1969-1970 .. 1973-1974 .. .

, ,
- . 1973 (. .137), , .
9) D D , ,
. , , D
, ,

. 14.

54

,
. D,
, , .
1970 1973 [D] IV (Cycle)
. ,
, .
, . (
A/D*), , 1972
,
. ,
. [], .
10) E -
.
. ,
,
, ,
. , ,
, ,
.
:

. 15.

55

15:
, , ,
, . , . ,
.2-16, ,
(Minor) DJIA 1 1978 .
,
( ), , ,
,
, , ,
, ,
. , 914
( *), 0.618
1976-1978 ..
, ,
. ,
. ,
,
.
,
, (market momentum)
. :
,
. ,
.

1-15,
. ,
,
. ,
,
. ,
.
,
,
,
.
( *)
( *), ,
.
, , , ,
, -
, . ,
.
. , ,

56

2-16

. 15.

. 15.

57

, .
, , , ,
, , -
. ,
. , , ,
, , , ,
!
, .1-14,
:

1-14
17 1976. ,
. ,
. ,
? (Robert Prechter)
. (A.J. Frost; *), ,
Merrill Lynch :
, (DJIA*),
, .
, (Primary) , 1975
, , (Intermediate)
, , . ,
, 1975 1976 - , -,
, 11 , ,
. , , ,
,
956.45
. , ,
24 .
, , ,
.
, ,
(55.51 24 7 ) 1.618 (
, . *) 89.82 .
89.82
1011.96 922 ,
( 920.62) 11 .
,

. 15.

58

, . ,
, , ,

, 950.57 17
, , , . , ,
. , ,

. 1020-1030
(*) 1090-1100 . ,
, .
(.75 .75) 10% ,
100 (1020-1030) 1977 ,
(*).
,
.
(Christopher Morley) :
. , , ,
, .
, , .
, , , ,
, .

. , ,
,

.


. ,
,
.
.
, ,
, (Collins) ,
. (Bolton) ,
, , , .
, , ,
.
.
.
, ,
.
.
.

. 15.

59

,
.. ,
,
.
. ,
,
. ,
, .
, ,
- , . ,
,
.
, , . ,
, ,
, .
- ,
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.
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, ,
,
.
,
. , ,

. , .
, , ,
, , , .
, ,
, ,
, (Bolton).
,
. , ,
, 100%.
,
, ,
10 15 20 25 .
.

. 15.

60

, ,
,
. , , .
,
. , ,
. ,
-
, , .
, .
, , ,
.
, ,
. ,
. , ,
- , .
,
.
,

.
, .
, -
. ,

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:

. 16.

61

16:

, , .
: "A. Leonardo Fibonacci, Insigne
Matematico Piisano del Secolo XII."

( , )
, (
*).
(, ,
) , . ,
, .
, ,
, . {
. "Mathematical Basis of Wave Theory"
( ) (Walter E. White).}
1200, , , Liber
Abacci { ( ); () *},
, ,
. ,
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 9, -
.
, ,
, ,

. 16.

62

, , .. 58
85 .

, .
, , ,
, I, V, X, L, C, D M
( *) . , ,
, ,
, . ,
, .
,
.
. ,
,
. ,
, .
.
.
,
, .
, , , .
, II, , ,
. II ,
,
. ,
.
II 1225
. ,
, , . ,
, .
, , , ,
. 1228 ,
II.
, ,
. :
, 1202 1228 , ,
1220 , . 1240 ,
, ,
(Joseph Gies), ,
,
.
. , - ,
(Joseph and Frances
Gies) .
,
, ,
, . , 179-
- .

. 16.

63

(Bonanna), ,
1174 . , ,
, .

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8,
13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 ,
. :
, ,
, ,
?
, , , ,
, , ,
. , ,
1, 1. , , ,
.
, 1, 1, 2, 3.
, , ,
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 . .3-1 ,
.
. 100 , ,
354 224 848 179 261 915 075 .
, ,
.

3-1
The Rabbit Family Tree
Month
Pairs -
- 12 144 .
, ,
, 1+1=2, 1+2=3, 2+3=5, 3+5=8 .

. 16.

64


,
0.618 1, 1.618 1.
, (*),
0.618034 ,
, 0.382, 2.618
(1:2.618*). 1 144 (.3-2).

3-2
, 1 :
0.618+1=1:0.618.
:
0.6182 = 1 - 0.618,
0.6183 = 0.618 - 0.6182,
0.6184 = 0.6182 - 0.6183,
0.6185 = 0.6183 - 0.6184, ..
, :
1.6182 = 1 + 1.618,
1.6183 = 1.618 + 1.6182,
1.6184 = 1.6182 + 1.6183,
1.6185 = 1.6183 + 1.6184, ..

:
1) 1.618 - 0.618 = 1,
2) 1.618 * 0.618 = 1,
3) 1 - 0.618 = 0.382,
4) 0.618 * 0.618 = 0.382,
5) 2.618 - 1.618 = 1,
6) 2.618 * 0.382 = 1,
7) 2.618 * 0.618 = 1.618,
8) 1.618 * 1.618 = 2.618.

. 16.

65

1 2, , 4
, :
3 * 4 = 12; + 1 = 13,
5 * 4 = 20; + 1 = 21,
8 * 4 = 32; + 2 = 34,
13 * 4 = 52; + 3 = 55,
21 * 4 = 84; + 5 = 89, ..
,
, 4. ,
,
4.236, 0.236 , 4.

.
1.618 ( 0.618) .
, , . ,
1975 Smithsonian Magazine:
0.618034 1
, ,
. .
.
. , ,
, ,
. , , 8- .
8 5 13. ,
, , , ,
. (*) 0.625 (*).
0.006966 ,
,
.
,
0.618034 1 .
, .

, , ,
, .
, ,
, , ,
. ,
. ,
( , *),
(, *), (*)
( *). (
5-3-5-3.*)
:

. 17.

66

17:

,
(.3-3).
0.618.

3-3
. ,
(. .3-9) .
, Timaeus (, *), - (Peter Tompkins),
- , , ,

. , (Johannes Kepler),
, , ,
.
. 0.618.
,
. ?

1.618 1.
, 2
, .3-4.

3-4
EDB . , 550 . .., ,
. ,

. 17.

67

, X2 = 22 + 12, X2 = 5. 5.
CD
G , EG 5, 2.236 ,
.3-5. ,
, AFGC, BFGD
.

3-5
,
, , .

.
, .. .
(Leonardo da Vinci) .
:
, . ,
, .

, , ,
. ,
0.618 . ,
,
. , ,
. , ,
,
.
, ,
, . ,

. 17.

68

,
(. .3-9).

,
,
.

.
, .3-5, ,
.3-6. .
, , ,
, A, B, C, D, E, F G.

3-6

3-7

. 17.

69

, ,

. ,
.3-7,
. ,
. ,
.
, 1.618.
, 90,
1.618, .3-8.

3-8
, ,
.
, . ,
, ,
. (David Bergamini) ,
. Epeira
.
, . ,
, , .
, , , , ,
,
.

. 17.

70

.
, ,
, , .
.3-9 .
,
: 1.618, , ,
. ,
,
, , ,
, , 1.618,
.

3-9a

3-9b

3-9c

3-9d

. 17.

3-9e

3-9f
:

71

. 18.

72

18: ()

. ,
.
,
, ;
17 (Jacob Bernoulli) ,
; (Isaac Newton) ,
( , ).
,
5000 .
, 1.618
,
, 1.618.
(Peter Tompkins),
(1971), , (Herodotus;
, 5 . ..*) , *
= , 1 * = . , ,
(, , )
() () ,
(.. ), ,
.

(, ), ,
, , ,
, , , , ,
. , , ,
, , . ,
, ,
. ,
, . ,
, , . ,
, . ,
, ,
, .
, , ,
, , , , ..
. ? :
, (Schwaller de Lubicz),
,
. , , [
] . . , ,
(Heraclitus) ,
, , ,
, , ,
.
, ,
, . ,
, , ,

. 18.

73

, , .
, ,
? ,
, ,
? ,
?
, ?

, ,
, ..
? ,
(, , ,
1980), , ,
, , ,
. ,
,
.
(William Kingsland)
, /
, .
,
. , -, - ,
.
. ,
- .
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, ,
. , ,
, .
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, . , ,
, .

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, .
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.
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.
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,
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. ,
.
, , .3-10

. 18.

74

.
.

3-10
, ,
, ,
5-3, .. .
, .1-4,
.
, .
. .
, 3, 5 8. .3-11,
.

3-11
:

. 19.

75

19:
{ (*),
} , ,
,
, . .3-12 3-13 , ,
25 10
1962 , - S&P 500 1932 1978 .. (
The Media General Financial Weekly).
, 1500 .
, V 1974
, .
? .
, 5-3,
,
. ,
.

3-12

3-13

, .3-14 3-15.
, ,
. 0.618. ,
, , .
.3-14, 1930-1942 ..,
260, 160, 100, 60 38 ,
: 2.618, 1.618, 1.00, 0.618 0.382.

. 19.

76

3-14

3-15
1977 , , .3-15,
55 ( ), 34 ( a c), 21 ( d), 13
( ) 8 ( b ), .. .
13 ,
(930), , ,
. - ,
, ,
0.618 .
20 25 30
.


. 1 : - . 2

. 19.

77

: ( , )
( , ).
3 : , (
, ). 5 : ,
, , . 13
: , , , ,
, , , , ,
, ,
.
: ,
3. 2 (
), 5.
( ), 8
: /, /, /,
/,
//,
//,
// //,
13.
21.
.3-16 .
,
: ( ) ,
, ( ) ,
..,
.

3-16
,
.
, , ,
.

. 19.

78


,
,
, . , ,
,
,
. ,
( *) ,
, .
, 1 (. .3-17),
. ,
, , 17 352 , ,
.
,
.
(. .3-18). ,
, ,
,
, ,
.
, , ,
.

3-17

3-17

. 19.

79

, ,
, .
,
.
,
,
. , ( ,
, ), ,
. ,
, , .
, ,
, . , ,
, ,
(Einstein) , , :
. , , ,
, .
, : 1.618.
Desiderata (), (Max Ehrmann) : ,
; . , , ,
, , . ?
. ? .
:

. 20.

80

20:
1939 The Financial World ,
. :

,
.
, . ,
. The Financial World
. .., The Financial World
, .
,
, , ,
, ,
.
The Financial World

, , ,
,
.


. -
- , -
, ,
, .
. ,
, ,
.

,
.
, ,
( , )
, ( *) /
. ,
.
,
, (Robert
Rhea), . 1936 The Story of the Averages
,
1896 1932 . ,
, , ,
:

. 20.

81

[ ] - ,
,

, , ,
, , ,

; , ,
.
:
, (
), , ,
, 13 115 . 8 143 ,
4 972 .
, 61.1%
.
, ,
1 . ,
,
. , ,
II, ( ) 29.64 76.04,
46.40 .
14.44, 17.33, 18.97 24.48 .
75.22, 1. 46.40
75.22, 1.621, 1. ,
,

, , . 100%. ,

,
162.1, 100,
. , 62.1%
. [ ]
, 1936 , , ,
, . ,
, ,
, - .
, , , ,
,
, .
,
. :
.

. 20.

82


. .4-1, 61.8% 50%
, , 2 ,
.
38.2% , ,
4, .4-2.

4-1

4-2

. , .4-1 4-2
, -
. ,
,
, .
:

. 21.

83

21:


12 , 3 , 1 5
0.618, .4-3. ,
, 1.618
2.618 ( 0.618 0.382).
. , I 1932 1937 .. 371.6%,
III 1942 1966 .. 971.7% 2.618 .
. , ,
,
.

4-3

4-4

4-5

, 5
1 3, .4-4,
. 0.382 0.618
, . ,
1, 2, , ,
.4-5.
, : , 1
, 4
. 0.382 , 5
, .4-6, 0.618, , .4-7.
4,
. , .
, ,
5. ,

0.382 .

. 21.

4-6

84

4-7


, .4-8, 1.618
0.618 .
, .4-9.

4-8

4-9

, , , , ,
.4-10. 1.618 .
, 0.618 .
.4-11. 2.618 .
1.236 1.382 .

4-10

. 21.

85

4-11
, , ,
0.618, ..
=0.618, c=0.618a d=0.618b. 1.618.
.
, ,
0.618, , .
: 4 ,
2. ,
.
:

. 22.

86

22:
,
. , DJIA
1922 1926 .., , 61.8%
1926 1928 .. (1928
). 1932
1937 ..
(Hamilton Bolton) 1957 Bank
Credit Analyst ,
:
, ,
, ,
, V (Primary)
, DJIA 1000 1960
.
(The Elliott Wave Principle A Critical
Appraisal), , , :
1949 ,
1949 . 1956 . (361 DJIA) , 583
(161.8% 361 ) 416, 999
DJIA. , 316 416 777 DJIA.
, 1964 , :
777, , 1000
.
1966 , , 9
15:00 995.82
( 1001.11). ,
3.18 .
, , , ,
.
, ,
, ,
. ,
, ; ,
, .
.
. (A.J. Frost) ,
1962 .,
. , 1970 The
Bank Credit Analyst ,
(Cycle) , , 1967
0.618 1966-67 .. 572. ,
DJIA 1974 ., , 572.20,
1975-76 ..

. 22.

87

. 1976 ,
Merrill Lynch (Robert Prechter)
, ,
, 1.618 ,
922 .
920.63 11 11:00,
.
1977,
744 . 1 1978 . 11:00,
740.30. , ,
740, , :
740 , 1977-78 ..
0.618 1974 1976 ..
, 1022-(1022-572)*0.618=744 {,
31 , 1005-(1005-572)*0.618=737}. , 740 ,
1977-78 .. 2.618
1975 , 1005-(885-784)*2.618=742. ,
, ,
2.618 , 746.
, 1977 ,
740 . :
, ,

1 740.30. ,
, , .
.4-12 (
), 4-13 4-14.
(Primary) (Minuette) .
740.30 [2] V
.

4-12

. 22.

4-13

4-14
:

88

. 23.

89

23:
, ,
, , ,
.
, .
,
. ,
. ,
,
, , ,
.
. : ,
,
, .

, .
,
, .
, ,
, , ,
.
, 0.618 [1] , [2]
, , , ()
(*) 1.618
() , , 1
, 1.00, 5
, , ,
. .4-15 .

4-15
.4-16 ,
. ,
. :
[2] = 0.618 * [1];
[4] = 0.382 * [3];
[5] = 1.618 * [1];

. 23.

90

[5] = 0.618 * [0] [3];


[2] = 0.618 * [4];
[2], (a) = (b) = (c);
[4], (a) = (c);
[4], (b) = 0.236 * (a).

4-16

,
. , . ,
, ,
, . ,
, ,
, ,
. ,
, , 1974 1975 61.8%
1973-74 .., 1976-78 .. 61.8%
1974 1976.
0.618, ,
, ,
.
: .
, .
, , ,
.
:

. 24.

24:

91

20 23 ,
.
, ,
Elliott Wave Theorist ( ) .
,
.
.
,
. ,
, , 1.618
,
,
, .
1.618 .
, ,
. , ,
,
:
a) .
b)
.
c) .
d) .

, ,
, .
,
, , ( )
. ,
31,
(bond). , ,
: . ,
The Elliott Wave Theorist 1983-84 ..
The Elliott Wave Theorist
1983
, . ()
11 , , (
*) (), (b) 73
, 61. , ,
0.618.
, [] 32 . 32*0.618=19 ,
[D]. 19 [C] 80

. 24.

92

60. , 60-61
[. . -14].

B-14
3 1984 [ (b), ]
, , , [D] 0.618
[], 1980 1981 32
. , [D] 19 ,
(*) 60.
- (), ,
1983 . - . ,
() 11 . 11 70
59, 60 (+/- 1),
. , , ,
( 8).
[.-15], 10 ,
60 .

B-15

. 24.

93

4 1984
1984
. ,
59-60. 30 , ,
Continental Illinois Bank, 1100
650 ,
59, , ,
. 59 31/32,
1/32 .
, .

B-16
11 1984
[.
.-18]. , , ,
, . ,
1984 ,
.
,
. ,
, ,
, .
.
11 , Wall Street Journal (WSJ) : ,
. 18
:
, , ,
, ;
. 22 Wall Street Journal
,

. 24.

94

: , 1990; -- Citicorp ; -
.

B-18
2 WSJ , .
! :
, 1985
. : , ,
. WSJ , . Financial
World 27 24
.
, .
,
, [*]. ,
, , , ,
.
, , ,
.
--------- The Elliott Wave Theorist -------- ,
.
, ,
, ,
, .
:

. 25.

95

25:

. , ,
, , , ,
,
. ,
.
, ,
.

:
1921 1929

1921 1928

89

1929 1932

34

1932 1933

13

1933 1934

13

1934 1937

34

1932 1937

5 (55 )

1937 1938

13

1929 1942

13

21 1973 (Richard Russell) Dow Theory Letters


:
1907. 1962.

55

1949. 1962.

13

1921. 1942.

21

1960. 1962.

34

, , .
(Walter E. White) 1968 ,
, 1970 .
, : 1949 + 21 = 1970; 1957 +
13 = 1970; 1962 + 8 = 1970; 1965 + 5 = 1970. 1970 , ,
.
1928 ( ) 1928 ()
(Supercycle)
:
1929 + 3 = 1932
1929 + 5 = 1934

. 25.

1929 + 8 = 1937
1929 + 13 = 1942
1928 + 21 = 1949
1928 + 34 = 1962
1928 + 55 = 1982

96





( 1 )

1965 ( ) 1966
() (Cycle) :
1965 + 1 = 1966
1965 + 2 = 1967
1965 + 3 = 1968
1965 + 5 = 1970
1966 + 8 = 1974
1966 + 13 = 1979
1966 + 21 = 1987






9.2 4.5
,

, ,

, , , .
, , 1960 , 1962
1963 , , .
1962 , , [4]
, ,
.
,
, (Robert Rhea),
. (Robert Prechter) Merrill
Lynch 1978 , 17 , A-B-C
1931 0.618 3124 (1), (2) (3).
14
17 63.5 .
, ,
, .

(Samuel T. Benner)
1873 , .
, , ,
. 1975 ,
Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices (-
). , ,

.
, , .
,
.

. 25.

97

, 8-9-10
. DJIA
, 1902 , .
,
8-9-10 .

1902

24 1902 .

1910

2 1910 .

1919

3 1919 .

1929

10

3 1929 .

1937

10 1937 .

1946

29 1946 .

1956

10

6 1956 .

1964

4 1965 .

1973

11 1973 .

,
, , ( ) ()
( , ).
, 1819, 1837, 1857 1873 ..
, , 16-1820, .
20-18-16 ,
, , 16-18-20 ,
. 16-18-20 ,
- (.4-17),
Bank Credit Analyst 1967
.

4-17

. 25.

98

, , ( 70
80*), 1920 , .
, ,
XX .
. , , . ,
,
, ,
8-9-10 377,
1, ..

8-9-10
8

35

34

+1

+10

54

55

-1

...+ 8

89

89

...+ 8

143

144

-1

...+ 9

233

233

...+10

378

377

+1

+9
+10
+8
+9

: ,
, ,
.
, , ,
. . (A.J.Frost)
1964 , ( )
, , ,
, 1973 1000 DJIA
500..600 1974 1975 .. ,
, . .4-18
, . 10
1964 , ,
, .

. 25.

99

10 1964 .
Mr. A.H. Bolton
Bolton, Tremblay, & Co.
1245 Sherbrooke Street West
Montreal 25, Quebec
:
,
,
.
, ,
, . 1962 .
, (*)
. , ,
,
. , , ,
. ,
1942 .
,
( -
) ,
.
1942 , 1949 1960,
1942 , ,
, , ,
.
,
.
, . , 10-
, .
, , ,
, .
,
.

. 25.

100

4-18
,
,
. , ,
.
,
. 32 34.
, . , , , .
:

. 26.

101

26:
1977 Forbes
, , (David
Warsh) : ?
, ?.
(E.H. Phelps Brown) (Sheila V. Hopkins) :
, ;
. ,
,
. ,
, , , ,
?
, ,
, ... ,
, ,
, .
, , ,
, .
,
,
, (Minuette)
(Grand) .
, ,
. , ,
,
(*). ,
, , ,
.
, , , , ,
(*), (*) .
, (
*),
,
. , , ,
, ,
. , , , , ,
.

.
,
,
. , , ,
,
, , ,
, ,
(Gnomes of Zurich) ( ),
.

. 26.

102

, ,
---.

. , , -,
, -,
, , ,
.
26 27 ,
(Millennium)
(Cycle) . , , -

,
, .

,
.
,
, 950 1954 ..
1789 ,
. .5-1
1789 . 1789
, , , ,
. , ,
, - .

5-1

. , , ,
, , 476 ..
,

. 26.

103

, . (9501350 ..) - (subMillennium) , .


1350 1520 ..
.
, (Grand)
- , (1520-1640 ..),
, . I (15331603 ..) .
, , ,
, .
(Shakespeare), (Martin Luther), (Drake) (Raleigh),
, .
. 1650 ,
.
- ,
, 1760 ,
1770-1790 ..,
1789, . ,
1977 Cycles,
,
, . , ,
.
, (17501850 ..), , .
, 1789
, (
*), .
200- , ,
( ),
.
, .
,
, .
, .
, (V)
.
: 1978

. 27.

104

27: 1978
(Grand) 1789

, ,
. .5-2
(Supercycle) (I), (II), (III), (IV) (V).
, ,
, ,
, (Gertrude Shirk)
Cycles, .
,
(Cycle) ,
.
(I) , , 1789 - . (II)
, (IV)
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. 27.

105

, ,
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, (. 14*).
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. 27.

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,
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. 28.

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. 29.

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. 29.

112

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. 29.

113

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. 29.

114

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. $35 1970
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. 29.

115

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. 30.

116

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. 30.

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. 30.

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. 30.

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. 31.

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(Robert D. Edwards) (John Magee) Technical Analysis of Stock Trends}
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, .
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. 31.

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1962 .
,
, 1929-1932 ..
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, 1919 ( 1930 *),

. 31.

123

.
"Elliott Waves in the Stock Market" ( )
,
:

.
, 1965
1974 1-2-3-4-5.
, 1970
. , ,
, 1974 .

. , ,
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1966 1974 ..
1-2-3-4-5 1974
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.
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24.)

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. 31.

124

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.

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1965 (Charles J. Collins) ,
. , 1871
, , ,
. , . (R. Burr) Blueprint for Survival
,
.

, .
, , ,
, , .
1970 , The Fibonacci Quarterly ( The Fibonacci Association, Santa Clara
University, Santa Clara, CA) .. (B.A.Read),
.
,
. , ,
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,

.
, - .
: 1982

. 32.

125

32: 1982 , I
, IV
1974 572. 740 1978
[2] (Primary)
. ,
. , 1978 , ,
, [2] 1980 ,
IV 1982 , 1984 .

The Elliott Wave Theorist
13 1982


. 1974
, , , ,
- . , ,
, 1977 , .
,
.
, ,
. (Cycle)
(Supercycle)
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100 ,
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. 32.

126

1- 2-
[. .-2] 1974 ,
1974-1976 ..
.
, 1966
1974 V
1975-1976 .. IV .
V , , ,
, (4) [4],
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[3], (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5), (1) (2)
. , , 2860,
, 1978 . []
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.

A-2

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)

.
. 1970 IV 572.
1975-1976 ..
1982 .
1942 .
.
,
, ( *).
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, , 1920 *)
. 1923 .

. 32.

127

1) 1974-1976 .., , , .
2) (2) , (1),
.
3) 1980
(Intermediate) .
4) V,
, I 1932 1937 .., ,
III 1942 1966 .. (. 27)
: 1982 , II

. 33.

128

33: 1982 , II

The Elliott Wave Theorist
13 1982


( 32)
, 1982
IV ,
. [. .-3]. ,
1966 ( 1982
). 1942 ,
1949 ,
. ,
, ,
, ... []
, , ,
, ,
.

A-3

. 33.

129

. 19321937 .. 5 , 5- 1937 1942 ..


3 1942 1946 .. 3
1946 1949 .. 16 1949 1966 .. 16
1966 1982 ..!
( )
,
,
,
. [A]-[B]-[C],
[] [. .-3]. ,
, (5), .
,
, .
, 9 7 ( 05.65
12.74 01.73 08.82), 7 7 ( 05.65
01.73 12.74 08.82). (- 1973 )
190 , 8+
. , 1966 16 7 , ,
1949 1966. [
The Elliott Wave Theorist 3 At the Crest of the Tidal Wave
( , ..*)].

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

.
1942 .
.
, .
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.
6) , 1982 ,
.
7) .
8) .
9) , ,
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10)
("stable reflation").

. 33.

130

1) , , ,
,
.
2)
.

,
. , ,
495 (1067-572) 777,
1272. , 1973 , ,
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1350. ,
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1932-1937 .., .. 3873-3885.
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, 1920 , 17-
100 ( 1000 ),
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], . , , 200
, 2000 !
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29 1982

(. .-7)
. , ,
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: You are here .

. 33.

A-7
: (Grand)

131

. 34.

132

34: (Grand)
.
, . ,
, , 1974 1982 ,
, .
90%.
. , 1997
, ,
. -
, .
Elliott Wave Principle. Key to Market Behavior., 1978 ( .
. ,
. , 34
, - *), , IV
(Cycle) 1974 . .D-1
.

D-1
.D-2 , ( 1997 *).
1973-1984 .., The Elliott
Wave Theorist (EWT) 1982 ,
. 33,
1982 , [1], [2],
[3], , ., [4]. [5]

. 34.

133

3000 EWT 3664-3885.


, , , .

D-2
.D-2. ,
, .
1978 , IV I, III
( ), IV
II.
. I, III V ,
[2] , [4]
. , V, ,
, Elliott Wave Principle .
The Elliott Wave Theorist , 1982 ,
, ,
V (. .D-3 14 1997 ).
. ,
, , ,
,
.

. 34.

134

D-3

, ,
, ,
, .
, ,
,
. ..
.

, ,
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, .
At the Crest of the Tidal Wave (
).
, .. , .
.
,
,
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, , ,

. 34.

135

. , ,
. , ,
( ,
), , . , (
), - ,
. , ,
..,
.
.

. .

136


,
. , , -
.
,
, 2001 ,
Elliott Wave International.
. ,
,
. ,
,
, 2001 . !

forDmitry@yahoo.com
23 2001

DJIA 2000

. .

DJIA 2001

137

. .

DJIA 2001

138