Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 240

1997 -.

The Financial Times/Booz Allen & Hamilton

.

.
, .
. ,
Bloomberg Financial Markets

.
.
.
. , McKinsey & Company

,
.
, .
- . ,
Intel Corporation

... ...
...
,
.
, Guilder Technology Report

THE INNOVATORS
DILEMMA

When New Technologies


Cause Great Firms to Fail

Clayton M. Christensen

Harvard Business School Press


Boston, Massachusetts

2004

THE INNOVATORS
DILEMMA

When New Technologies


Cause Great Firms to Fail

Clayton M. Christensen

Harvard Business School Press


Boston, Massachusetts

2004

65.011
65.290-2
82
.
.

82

.
/ . ; . . .:
, 2004. 239 .
ISBN 5-9614-0073-5
. , .
, ,
, .
, -, , , .
65.011
65.290-2

.

.

ISBN 5-9614-0101-4 (.)


ISBN 0-87584-585-1 (.)

The President and Fellows of Harvard


College, 1997.
Published by arrangement with Harvard
Business School Press.
, ,
, 2004.

..............................................................................................

...........................................................................................................


? ..................................

27

1 ?
: ...........................

29

2 .........................

53

3
................................

82

4 , .................................................

97



................................................. 115
5 .............................

120

6 .............................

138

7 ..................................

157

8 .....................

173

9 ,
.......................................................................

193

10
: .................................................

212

11 : ........................................................

229

: ............................

233

65.011
65.290-2
82
.
.

82

.
/ . ; . . .:
, 2004. 239 .
ISBN 5-9614-0073-5
. , .
, ,
, .
, -, , , .
65.011
65.290-2

.

.

ISBN 5-9614-0101-4 (.)


ISBN 0-87584-585-1 (.)

The President and Fellows of Harvard


College, 1997.
Published by arrangement with Harvard
Business School Press.
, ,
, 2004.

..............................................................................................

...........................................................................................................


? ..................................

27

1 ?
: ...........................

29

2 .........................

53

3
................................

82

4 , .................................................

97



................................................. 115
5 .............................

120

6 .............................

138

7 ..................................

157

8 .....................

173

9 ,
.......................................................................

193

10
: .................................................

212

11 : ........................................................

229

: ............................

233

,
,
.
1989 ., , ,
. ,
, , ,
, , .
, ,
, .
,
,
, ,

. , Disk/
Trend Report, .

. ,
,
. ,
.

.
MIT,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 7

07.09.2004 20:04:41

, ,
. -
, , , ,
, ,
,
, , .
, .
, , , , ,
. ,
, . , , , ,
,
.
:
, , , .
, .
, ,
. . , , , , , , ,
. ,
. .
.

,
1997

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 8

07.09.2004 20:04:44

, ,

. :
, ,
, ,
.
. - , ,
, , ,
, , , .
. , ,
- .
, , ,
, ,
. , ,
Sears Roebuck . Sears
2% . : , ,
. , Sears
Roebuck, Fortune: Sears? - . Sears -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 9

07.09.2004 20:04:44

10

.
. 1.
Sears . -

. Sears , .
, Sears Merchandise Group 1,3 . .
[ 1992 .] , 1,7 . . , Sears , ,
2. : Sears ,
,
.
Sears . ,
Sears 3.
, Sears 1960-,
, , Sears
. Sears
,
Visa MasterCard, Sears .
. . IBM , -.
, , -.
- Digital Equipment Corporation, Data General, Prime, Wang, Hewlett-Packard Nixdorf.
, ,
. Apple Computer Commodore, Tandy
IBM. Apple
,
. Apple, IBM
.
: Apollo, Sun Silicon Graphics
.
, Sears,

,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 10

07.09.2004 20:04:44

11

. Business Week 1986 .:


Digital Equipment Corporation
. ,
7,6 . ., , 4. IBM
, . , Digital
McKinsey,
In Search of Excellence5.
DEC . Digital
Equipment Corporation .
- . , ,
.
.
. DEC ,
6.
Sears, , DEC ,
,
. DEC
,
.
Sears DEC . Xerox
,
,
. - 40%
, ,
, , , 1995 . -. 30
25- .
, , , .
. , . ,
.
: , , ,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 11

07.09.2004 20:04:44

12

.
, Digital, IBM, Apple, Sears, Xerox Bucyrus Erie, . , ,
. , , . .
, : ,
.
, , .
,
. ,
, ,
, , .
,
. ,
, , ,
, .
,
. , ,

.
. , , ,
. ,
,
.
, , ,
.
,
,
, ,
.
, , ,
. . -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 12

07.09.2004 20:04:44

13

, , Sears, , ,
, ,
,
, PriceCostco.
, .
.


, ,
.
, ,
.
: , ,
, .
. ,
- , :

, .


, .
, ,
. : -, , , , . ,
. ,
, .
, .
,
, , , ,
,
, , ,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 13

07.09.2004 20:04:44

14

,
, :
.
, , , ,
,
,
.
. ,

-.



. , .
, ,
. : . ,
. :

.


. . , , .
:
,
. .
:

.
: ,
, .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 14

07.09.2004 20:04:44

15

, , ,
.
. , , , , .
. ,
, , , .
. -,
Honda, Kawasaki Yamaha, HarleyDavidson BMW, .
.


,
, . I.1. , ,
,
, :
, , ,
. , , , ,
.
I.1

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 15

07.09.2004 20:04:44

16

,
, ,
. ,
, . , 1965 .
, ,
Target Wal-Mart.



, , . , , . -,
. -, ,
, .
. , , ,
.



,
. , ,
,
.
, .
, .
.
, . ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 16

07.09.2004 20:04:45

17

-. ,
, .
. ,
- . ,
.
.
, , , . .
,
, - ,
.


, , , , . - ,
, , ,
, ,
, .
, , . ,
, !
, , ,
- . , , .
, .
,
, , .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 17

07.09.2004 20:04:45

18

, .
, .
,
: , , ,
.
, ,
.
, ,
. , ,
, ,
,
, . , ,
, , . ,
, . , ,
, . , , . ,
.

:

,
(, ) . 7. .
: , , , , , , , .
, , .

, . , .
, ,
, . -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 18

07.09.2004 20:04:45

19

,
. ,
,
, . ,
, .
,
, , . ,

, .


,
.

:


. , , ,
, . ,
, .
,
, , . 40 . .,
8 . , 20%, ,
4 . ., 800 .
. , .
:
, , .
, ,
.
, , ,
, , .
. , -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 19

07.09.2004 20:04:45

20


, , .

:

, ,
, , . ,
. ,
,
, ,
.
,
, .
, , , . , , , ,

, .
,
,
.
, .
, ,
. .
,
, ,
. , , ; ,
. ,
, , ,
.
,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 20

07.09.2004 20:04:45

21

, ,
, , , , .
, .

:

,
. ,
: ,
. ,
, . . : , , , , , .
, , .
. ,
IBM, ,
.
. ,
-
. ,
, .
,
, .
,
.
,
, .

:

. :
-

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 21

07.09.2004 20:04:45

22

. . I.1
(. . ), ,
.
,
, , . ,
,
.
, ,
,
, , ,
, .
,
, , ,
, , .
- , . , ,
, .
,
, ,
, . - ,
. , , , , .



,
, : ,
,
. , ,

. ,
.
.
, , -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 22

07.09.2004 20:04:45

23

, ,
, .
, , ,
,
. ,
, , . , ,

.
:
,
. , . .
. . ,
, .
- , . ,
, , ,
, ,
. , , , ,
, .


,
, .
, , , .
. , .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 23

07.09.2004 20:04:46

24

()

Sony Playstation II,


New York & NASDAQ

(ECN)

, Chemdex
E-steel


( , ,
)


( )

Microsoft Windows,
++

IP- Java

: ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 24

07.09.2004 20:04:46

25



, . ,
, ? , . , ,
, .

1
2
3
4
5

6
7

John McDonald. Sears Makes It Look Easy // Fortune, 1964, May, pp. 120121.
Zina Moukheiber. Our Competitive Advantage // Forbes, 1993, April 12, p. 59.
Steve Weier. Its Not Over Until Its Over // Forbes, 1990, May 28, p. 58.
Business Week, 1986, March 24, p. 98.
Thomas J. Peters, Robert H. Waterman. In Search of Excellence. New York: Harper &
Row, 1982.
Business Week, 1994, May 9, p. 26.
.: Jeffrey Pfeffer, Gerald R. Salancik. The External Control of Organizations:
A Resource Dependence Perspective. New York: Harper & Row, 1978.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 25

07.09.2004 20:04:46

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 27

07.09.2004 20:04:46


?
:

,
, :
, ,

. : , ,
. , - , . -.
, ,
,
, .
, , , .
, ,
.

. , 1.
,
,
. , ,

, -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 29

07.09.2004 20:04:46

30

. , ,
: -
, , .
: ,
,
.
, , ,
. , , .
, , , , ,

.


,
. (. . 1.1) .

,
. , :
, , 1.1


()


_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 30

07.09.2004 20:04:46

1. ? :

31

,

.
,
,
. , ,
, , . , ,
,
.
. , :
, .



IBM 19521956 . RAMAC ( Random Access Method
for Accounting and Control), ,
5 120 24- (60,9 ) (. . 1.2
. ).
, ,
( 1961 .)
Winchester (1973 .),
IBM. IBM, ,
.
IBM ,
, . 1960-
(PCM-; plug-compatible market), IBM .
IBM , Control Data, Burroughs Univac, , , Nixdorf, Wang Prime, 1970-
(OEM-; original equipment
market) . 1976 .
1 . ., 50% , , 25%
PCM OEM.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 31

07.09.2004 20:04:46

32


1.2

, IBM

International Business Machines Corporation.

, ,
. 1995 .
18 . . 1980- PCM ,
OEM : 75% .
17 , 1976 .,
, , , Diablo, Ampex,
Memorex, EMM Control Data, , IBM, , 1995 .
. 129 , 109
. IBM, Fujitsu, Hitachi NEC, , 1996 ., 1976 .

, ,
. , . ,
, 35% , 50 1967 .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 32

07.09.2004 20:04:46

1. ? :

33

1,7 1973-, 12 1981- 1100 1995-.


35% : 1978 .
20 800 ,
1993- 1,4.
. 1.3 , (
, , , ,
) 53%. , ,
,
53% ,
(70%).
5% .


,
, : , ,
. , , , .
1.3

:
1,000.00

1 . (1982 .)

1977
1980

100.00

1985

10.00

1990
53-
1.00

1994

0.10
10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000


: Disk/Trend Report.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 33

07.09.2004 20:04:47

34

, ,
,
1975 1994 .2 ,
, ,
, , , ,
, ,
.
,
, , .
- , , ,
. , , ,
. .
3. , Intel 20% : 8088 1979 .
8 , Pentium 1994 . 133 . Eli Lilly and
Company : 1925 . 50 000 /, 1980 10 /, 14%
. , , .

. , , ?
,
. .

,
.

( ) .
. ,
4.

,
. , -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 34

07.09.2004 20:04:47

1. ? :

35

.
, .
, ,

. ,
,
- ,
8- .



. . 1.4 , -.

, , , , 5.
1.4



(. 1 2)

1,000

100

10

1
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

: Disk/Trend Report.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 35

07.09.2004 20:04:47

36

,
, S-6. S- ,
. , . 1.4,
19761989 .
, 1 20
1 2. S- , , -
, , . , ,
. , 1990- .
.
. 1.5 : :
14- Winchester , 19621978 . ,
- , Winchester
.
, Servo, RLL PRML, RPM
. - , , ,
. : , 7.
,

.
.
1970- , , ,
,
,
. ,
. ,
, IBM, Control
Data, Digital Equipment, Storage Technology Ampex, -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 36

07.09.2004 20:04:47

1. ? :

37

1.5

Winchester
14-
10
Winchester

(. 1 2)

5
3
2

0,5
0,3
0,2

0,1
1965

1970

1975

1980

: Disk/Trend Report.

50 . . 19841986 .
, 1984 .,
.
.
,
.
.
1965 .
. 1981 . ,
.
:
,
, . . Burroughs (1976 .), IBM
(1979 .) -
. 19821986 .,
60 , ( ) -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 37

07.09.2004 20:04:47

38

, . -
, , Maxtor Conner
Peripherals, , .
,
, . IBM
100 . .
.
. IBM, Seagate Quantrum.
,
, .
, RLL- ( ), , .
, 14- 2,5- Winchester,
.
.
. 1.6 (. )
, ,
.
. , , , ,
, . , -
, , ,
,
. ,
, , ,
, .
.


, .
.
- .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 38

07.09.2004 20:04:47

1. ? :

39

1.6

30

25
20
15
10
5
0
76

80

84

30
25
20
15
10
5
0

88

84

85

, ,
RLL

,
Winchester

20
16
12
8
4
0
74

76

78

86

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
84

85

86

87

88

: Disk/Trend Report.

. : 14 8, 5,25
3,5 , 2,5 1,8 . 1.1 (. )
. 1981 .,

5,25- ,
, 8- ,
-. 8- ,
, -,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 39

07.09.2004 20:04:47

40

. 5,25-
. , , , ( 2000 .)
, (19801982 .) .
:
8. , .
,
.
1.1

: 5,25-
Winchester (1981)

8-
( -)

5,25-
(
)

()

60

10

(3)

566

150

()

21

()

30

160

50 .

200 .

3000 .

2000 .

: Disk/Trend Report.

. 1.7 , ,
,
. 1970- 14-
.
14- Winchester . ( Winchester) , ,
, Winchester.
, ,
1974 ., 130
. 15% 15 ,
. 14-
, , 22% -9.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 40

07.09.2004 20:04:48

1. ? :

41

1.7



10,000

1,000

()

14-

100

8-

10

5-

3,

D
5

,5
2

1
1975

1980

1985

1990

: Clayton M. Christensen. The Rigid Drive Industry: A History of Commercial and Technological Turbulence // Business History
Review (67), 4 (Winter 1993), p. 559. .

19781980 . - Shugart Assosiates,


Micropolis, Priam Quantrum 8-
10, 20, 30 40 . ,
300 400 , . -10. Wang, DEC, Data General, Prime, Hewlett-Packard
, , .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 41

07.09.2004 20:04:48

42


, , -,
14- .
8- , 14,
, .
.
- 8- , , -
, 25% : ,
- .
8- , , c ,
40% , , . 1980- 8-
. - 8-
, 14-. : , 8-
, 14-. ,
- 8- ,
14- .
8- ,
14- .
8- ,
-. 14- 11.
14-
- . 8- , , 14- , 8- , , ,
. , 8- , 1981 ., , . ,
, ( 19791983 .)12.


8- ? ?
, .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 42

07.09.2004 20:04:48

1. ? :

43

,
, 8- .
, , ,
14-
. 8-
. ,
. 14-
. 22% 14- ,
13.
. 1.7 (. . ) , ,
,
. ,
.
, A, B, C, D E,
,
,
.

5,25-
1989 . Seagate Technology 5,25- .
5 10 -: 4060 . Seagate
, Miniscribe, Computer Memories International
Memories, 5,25- 19801983 .,

.
1990 . ,
1980 ., ,
, .
5,25- ( ,
) , ,
.
, ( ,
, ) 25% .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 43

07.09.2004 20:04:48

44

, : 19801990 .
5,25- 50% .
14- 8-, , 5,25- , ,
. 1985 . ,
8- , 5,25- .
.
5,25- .
.
,
.
5,25-
- . 5,25- , .
8- Shugart Assosiates,
Micropolis, Priam Quantrum Micropolis
5,25- :
, .

: 3,5-
3,5- 1984 . Rodime, -. 1987 ., Conner Peripherals,
5,25- Seagate Miniscribe. Conner
, , 5,25- . , ,
, , , .
113 . .14 Conner
Compaq Computer. Conner
30 . . Conner
, ,

.
Seagate 3,5-
. , 1985 .,
3,5- Rodime
Conner Peripherals, Seagate
3,5-

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 44

07.09.2004 20:04:48

1. ? :

45

. Seagate.
, ,
, 3,5- ,
5,25-.
Seagate 3,5-
, , , IBM. ,
. 4060 , 3,5- 20 15.
, Seagate 3,5- .
. ? 5,25- , ,
3,5- .
, Seagate .
Seagate, IBM XT AT,
,
, 3,5- .
1988 . Seagate 3,5-
, (.
. 1.7 . ) ,
. 3,5-
750 . . ,
1991 . 3,5- Seagate , . ,
Seagate ,
, , 5,25- .
,
, : ,
- . ,
Seagate Conner, ,
,
. , ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 45

07.09.2004 20:04:48

46

, .
Seagate 3,5- , . 1988 . 35% ,
5,25- , 3,5- .
, , 3,5- , . 14-
8-, 8- 5,25- 3,5-
, ,
-. , 5,25- IBM
, , Seagate,
, .

Prairietek, Conner 2,5-


1989 . - Prairietek ( ) , 2,5-
30 . . .
1990 . 2,5- Conner
Peripherals. 95% .
Prairietek 1991 .
3,5- Quantrum, Seagate, Western
Digital Maxtor 2,5- .
?
? . . 1.7
(. . ) , , 2,5-
, 3,5-, , ,
: , , ,
.. 2,5-
3,5-: . ,
, 3,5- Conner, , Toshiba, Zenith Sharp,
, 2,5- . , Conner
3,5- , 3,5- 2,5- .
1992 . 1,8-
. , , 1995 . -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 46

07.09.2004 20:04:48

1. ? :

47

98% 1,8- 130 .


. , 1,8- !
.
1.8

,
3,5-

76

78

80

4
3
2
1
0
83

84

85

,
5,25-

12

,
1,8-

,
8-

-
16
12
8
4
0
80

81

82

91

92

93

6
4
2
0

-

: Disk/Trend Report.

. 1.8 -
. , ,
8-
( ) . 5,25- : 80% .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 47

07.09.2004 20:04:48

48

,
. -,
.
,

.
-,
.
( ).
, .

. .
-,
,
,
.
: ,
, , ?
. ,
,
. , , ,
, . , , ,
.
- ,
16. ,
, .

1.1
,
. 1.7
, . 1.7 (. . ),
. Data Sources, ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 48

07.09.2004 20:04:49

1. ? :

49

, .

, Data Sources , ,
(
), . , , , , . Data Sources :
, - , , , , . 1993 . 1,8-
,
.
, . 1.7,

,
.
,
. 1.7.
, ,
, , .
. 1.7 , , . Disk/Trend
Report.
. ,
.
,
. .

, , ,
. 1.7, . ,
.
,
, .

.: Clayton M. Christensen.
The Rigid Drive Industry: A History of Commercial and Technological Turbulence //
Business History Review (67), 1993, Winter, pp. 531588. ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 49

07.09.2004 20:04:49

50

.
( -
) .
Disk/Trend Report, , , .
Disk/Trend, Inc. .
.: Giovanni
Dosi. Technological Paradigms and Technological Trajectories // Research Policy (11),
1982, pp. 147162.
,
,
.
-
(); .
:

. , : . ,
, .
, 1990- ,
. , : .
, ,

, .
. :
, . . : ,
. ,
:
.
, , ,
, , , .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 50

07.09.2004 20:04:49

1. ? :
6

10

11

12

51

. Richard J. Foster. Innovation: The Attackers Advantage. New York, Summit Books,
1986.
, . 1.1 1.2, ,
(.: Giovanni Dosi. Technological Paradigms and Technological
Trajectories), . (. Michael L.
Tushman, Philip Anderson. Technological Discontinuities and Organizational
Environments // Administrative Science Quarterly (31), 1986) .
, . 1.4,
, (. . 1.7) . ,
,
.
. .
. , , ,
. .: Richard S.
Rosenbloom, Clayton M. Christensen. Technological Discontinuities, Organizational
Capabilitis, and Strategic Commitments // Industrial and Corporate Change (3), 1994,
pp. 655685.
, . 1.7, .
1.1.
- 1978 .
Winchester.

, OEM. , IBM, . IBM ,
. - , .
( )
. IBM ()
.
. (.: Rebecca M. Henderson. The
Failure of Established Firms in the Face of Technological Change: A Study of the
Semiconductor Photolithographic Alignment Industry. Dissertation, Harvard University,
1988). , ,
, -. : -, , ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 51

07.09.2004 20:04:49

52

13

14

15

16

.
. , ,
.
. , ,
: , ,
, , .
,
,
.
,
. .: Joseph L.
Bower. Managing the Resource Allocation Process. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin,
1970, p. 254.
113 . ., Conner Peripherals : , -
.
. ,
,
, . , ,
. ,
. .: Robert A. Burgelman, Leonard Sayles. Inside Corporate Innovation.
New York: The Free Press, 1986, pp. 7680.
,
, , , . , , . . Richard J. Foster. Innovation: The Attackers Advantage. New
York: Summit Books, 1986.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 52

07.09.2004 20:04:49

,
, .
, , (
,
). . , ,

.
, , .



: ,
. , ,
. , 1 ,
, ,
. , . ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 53

07.09.2004 20:04:49

54

, , , .
.
, Data General - , Data General Digital Equipment.
,
Digital.
Data General , Digital,
- DEC, Digital
2.

, ,
:
,
-.


,
.
, ; 3. , ,
,
. , , ,
, ,
.
, , ,
,
4. ,
, , .
, ,
. , 5. ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 54

07.09.2004 20:04:49

2.

55

, -
, ,
.
, . , .
,
, - ,
. , ,
8- .
,
-
. , ( , ),
. ,
, . , ,

.



?

- .
,
, ,
, ,
6.
,
. ,
7.

, .
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 55

07.09.2004 20:04:49

56


,
( ) , ,
8.
() ,
1980- . . 2.1,
: -, ,
, , , ..

, , , , , . , ,
: , , , , . , , ,
, .
, ,
AT&T IBM,
, .
, , . 2.1
, ,
. , ,
, Quantum Maxtor,
- ,
; , , .
, ,
, , ,
, . .
. 2.2 (. . )
.
, . , .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 56

07.09.2004 20:04:49

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 57

:
,

: Clayton M. Christensen, Richard S. Rosenbloom. Explaining the Attackers Advantage: Technological Paradigms, Organizational Dynamics, and the Value Network // Research Policy (24), 1995,
pp. 233257. Elsevier Science (Sara Burgerhartstraat 25, 1055 KV Amsterdam, The Netherlands).

()

2.1

2.
57

07.09.2004 20:04:49

58


-9.
. , . 2.2 (
) ,
.
, ,
,
. ,
, -,
.
, ,
(,
. 2.2 -, , , , ..), . , (
)10,
( . 2.2
).
, , ,
,
. , , ,
.
,
, 19761989 .,
,

. ,
( , ), . . 2.3 (. . ),
,
- . 1988 .
1,65 . , ,
1 1,50, 1,45 1,17 .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 58

07.09.2004 20:04:50

2.

59

2.2

..

..

-
( )

..

..

2,5-

..


AT/SCSI ..

, ..

CISC

(. /).

RISC

5,25-


..


ESDI ..

: Clayton M. Christensen, Richard S. Rosenbloom. Explaining the Attackers Advantage: Technological Paradigms, Organizational
Dynamics, and the Value Network. Elsevier Science.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 59

07.09.2004 20:04:50

60

. ,
1988 .
,
11.
2.3



1 (.)

1,70

1,60

1,50

1,40

1,30

1,20

1,10
0,15

0,10

0,05

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

1 3 (.)


. ,
, . 2.2 (. . ),
.
, .
( ) - .

, ,
, .
,
. ( 14-

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 60

07.09.2004 20:04:50

2.

61

) 5060%
, ,
.

.
, .
. .
1520%. ,

,
, .

. 2.4 (. . ). 14-
:
60% 56% .
8- - 40%,

25% ,
.
, ,
, .
, ,
,
. ,
,
, , . (
.)
,

. , , , ,
, .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 61

07.09.2004 20:04:50

62


2.4


90
80
70
56%

40

41%

40%

8-

50

60

60%

34%
2530%

30
20

14-

5,25-

10

(%)

100

:
.

S-
S- ,

. .
12. .
. 2.5 (. . ).
,
, , S ,
,
. ,
S- (

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 62

07.09.2004 20:04:50

2.

63

2.5

S-


: Clayton M. Christensen. Exploring the Limits of the Technology S-Curve. Part I: Component Technologies. . 340. .

. 2.5).

,
13.
S-
14? S-,
. 2.5,
, (
). .
2.5 . 1.4 (. . ), , .

,
. , .
,
, , -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 63

07.09.2004 20:04:50

64

.
,

.
. 2.5.
,
. 2.5,
,
.

, S-
(. . 2.6).
- .
, ,
,
, ,
, .
. 2.5 2.6 , . ( ,
) ,
,
, , ,
,
, . 2.5. ,
,
( ) . , . 2.6,
.



, ,
, ,

.
, , , . ,
, ,
, .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 64

07.09.2004 20:04:51

2.

65

2.6

() A

() B
,
B

,
A

S-


: Clayton M. Christensen. Exploring the Limits of the Technology S-Curve. Part I: Component Technologies. . 361. .

,
, . ,
.
, , ,
.
,
, , 80 ,
( , ) .
,
,
, .
,
: , .
: , (, , . 2.6. ,
(

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 65

07.09.2004 20:04:51

66

, . 2.5; . . ),

.

. Seagate Technology,
5,25- , 3,5- 15.

:

,
. , , ,
. , Seagate
Technology, 5,25- , 1985 . 3,5- . 80 ,
. Control Data
Memorex, 14- : 8- .


, ,
. 16. Seagate
3,5- IBM XT AT,
,
.
, IBM
3,5- Seagate. IBM
40 60 , 5,25-
; ,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 66

07.09.2004 20:04:51

2.

67

, Seagate
. , 3,5- ,
5,25-, ,
5,25- , Seagate
. , - .
3,5-
.
, .
, ,
,
. ,
Seagate, - ST412
[ ,
300 . . ]. , 3,5-
50 . ., 3,5- .
Seagate :
.
, ,
,
, ,
.
Control Data ( 14-
) 8-
CDC, 300 ,
8- CDC 60 . ,
14- , . 5,25-
Quantum Micropolis, .

:

, , . , ,
, .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 67

07.09.2004 20:04:51

68

,
, :
, .
, Seagate 3,5- 1985
1986 . . 1987 . 3,5-
, , .
, , , 3,5-
1 , 5,25-. 5,25- . , 1987 . Seagate
60100 500 . . , , 3540%, Seagate
20 2530%. Seagate 3,5- ,

ST251.
Seagate 3,5-
, 5,25-
. 1985, 1986 1987 .

57, 78 115% . , Seagate
, , 17, RLL SCSI. ,
, -18.

: ,


. ,
, . 3,5- Conner Peripherals Seagate Miniscribe 5,25-
. Micropolis, 8- ,
Pertec, 14- , Shugart Quantum
Memorex19.

,
. ,
. ,
, -, .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 68

07.09.2004 20:04:51

2.

69

, . Micropolis ,
- ,
. Seagate , , IBM . Conner Peripherals ,
Compaq
.
, ,
. , , , .

:
, , , 20, ,
.
( 50% )
.
,
, .

,
.
, , ,
, .
Seagate, , -, . ,
Seagate
Conner Quantum,
3,5- .

:

,
, ,
(. ) ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 69

07.09.2004 20:04:51

70

. ,


. , ,
, , ,
, .
, .
,
.
, , .
,
. , 1991 . 3,5-
Seagate.
, 3,5- -
, XT
AT, 5,25- .
Control Data, 14- ,
1% -. 8-
.
Miniscribe, Quantum Micropolis.
, -,
21. , , ,
22.

-

- , . - (DRAM) ,
. -
. -
5% ,
, . ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 70

07.09.2004 20:04:51

2.

71

- .
1 550 .
, - :
( ) ,
.
- , . , , ,
- ( -). , ,
. 1987 . 1994- -
1,3 . .
1990- - -.
-,
. SCSI (Small Computer Standard
Interface, Apple), ,
-
. - 45 . .
1993 . 80 . . 1994-, 1996 .
230 . .
-
? , ? ,
? ?



(. 4) , ,
.

- , ,


, .
,
- , , , .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 71

07.09.2004 20:04:51

72

-
, ( ). , Quantum, Seagate Western Digital,
, -.

.

, ,
, ,
. - . - -, (, SCSI) ,
,
.
, -
. ,
, ,
- . ,

Quantum, Seagate Western Digital -. ,
, .
. Seagate
- 1993 ., 25% SunDisk. Seagate
SunDisk ; Matsushita, Anam. Seagate
. Quantum Silicon Storage Technology, ,
.


-
. . , ,
. , Seagate Quantum .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 72

07.09.2004 20:04:51

2.

73

S-
S- ,
.
.
, ( ), , , . . 2.7
, S- : 1995 .
, .
, S- , , ,
-, -
, S-

.
2.7


1000

(. 1 2)

1995

100
1989

1985

10

1981
1977
0
1973
1970
0,1
1

10

100
1000
10 000

100 000

1 000 000

: Disk/Trend Report.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 73

07.09.2004 20:04:52

74


, . ,

, , . ,
S-
. . ,
S- . , , .
, , Seagate Quantum,
-, ,

, ,
, .
1996 . -
, . . 2.8,
-,
19921995 ., 2,5- 1,8-
, .
- ,
. -,
350 1995 ., :
50
23. -, , . , - , ,
Quantum Seagate.
, - , Quantum
Seagate, ,
, , ..,
,
Quantum Seagate -.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 74

07.09.2004 20:04:52

2.

75

2.8

2,5 ()

8-

1,

92

93

94

95

: Disk/Trend Report.

,
, ,
.
,
- : , , ,
.
1040 , -24.

- . 1995 . Quantum, Seagate
1% . ,
- , . , Seagate
SunDisk ( SanDisk) ,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 75

07.09.2004 20:04:52

76



,
.
,
, .
1. , , ,
.

, .
, .
2. , ,
.
, ,
( ), .
. ,
, , ( ),

. ,
, .
3. , , ,
.
, ,
.
,

.
, , ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 76

07.09.2004 20:04:52

2.

77

.
, ,
,
,
. ,
-

. , ,
,
,
-.
5,25-
- (
), ,

5,25- .
4. - ,
() ,
;
, , . ,
.
,
. ,
(
),
25.
5. ,

,
. , ,
,
, .

.
, , , -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 77

07.09.2004 20:04:52

78

, .
,
, ;
, ;

.
,
.
.

2
3

.: Rebecca M. Henderson, Kim B. Clark. Architectural Innovation: The Reconfiguration of Existing Systems and the Failure of Established Firms // Administrative Science
Quarterly (35), 1990, March, pp. 930.
Tracy Kidder. The Soul of a New Machine. New York: Avon Books, Inc., 1981.
,
.
, , , , (.: J. L. Enos. Invention and Innovation in
the Petroleum Refining Industry // The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity:
Economic and Social Factors. National Bureau of Economic Research Report. Princeton,
NJ: Princeton University Press, 1962, pp. 299321).
. ( ), ,
, (.:
Clayton M. Christensen. Exploring the Limits of the Technology S-Curve // Production
and Operations Management (1), 1992, pp. 334366).
.: Kim B. Clark. The Interaction of Design Hierarchies and Market Concepts in
Technological Evolution // Research Policy (14), 1985, pp. 235251. , , ,
, ,
,
. , ,

, ,
. , , , . , ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 78

07.09.2004 20:04:52

2.

10
11

12

79


,
( , ).
., : Michael L. Tushman, Philip Anderson. Technological Discontinuities
and Organizational Environments. Pp. 439465; Iidem. Technological Discontinuities
and Dominant Designs // Administrative Science Quarterly (35), 1990, pp. 604633.

(.: Giovanni Dosi. Technological Paradigms and
Technological Trajectories).
,
, , (. 152). , .
. ( )
, .
,
. . .: Clayton
M. Christensen, Richard S. Rosenbloom. Explaining the Attackers Advantage: The
Technological Paradigms, Organizational Dynamics, and the Value Network // Research
Policy (24), 1995, pp. 233257; Iidem. Technological Discontinuities, Organizational
Capabilities, and Strategic Commitments // Industrial and Corporate Change (3), 1994,
pp. 655685. .
.: D. L. Marples. The Decisions of Engineering Design // IEEE Transactions on
Engineering Management EM8, 1961, pp. 5571; C. Alexander. Notes on the Synthesis
of Form. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1964.

(. 6).
.
,
.
.: Michael Porter. Competitive Advantage. New York: The Free Press, 1985.
.: Clayton M. Christensen. The Innovators Challenge:
Understanding the Influence of Market Environment on Processes of Technology
Develop-ment in the Rigid Disk Drive Industry. Thesis, Harvard University Graduate
School of Business Administration, 1992, chapter 7.
.: D. Sahal. Patterns of Technological Innovation. London: Addison Wesley, 1981.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 79

07.09.2004 20:04:52

80


13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

., : Richard Foster. Innovation: The Attackers Advantage. .


.: Clayton M Christensen. Exploring the Limits of the Technology
S-Curve.
.: Clayton M. Christensen. The Innovators Challenge: Understanding the Influence
of Market Environment on Processes of Technology Development in the Rigid Disk
Drive Industry. , .
(. 15
). ,

. ,
.
, ,
Seagate. , Seagate.
, : Arnold Cooper, Dan Schendel.
Strategic Responses to Technological Threats // Business Horizons (19), 1976, February,
pp. 6169.

IBM -, . .: Clayton M. Christensen. The Rigid Disk Drive Industry: A History of Commercial and Technological
Turbulence // Business History Review (67), 1993, Winter, pp. 531588.
,
, .
, ( )
.
.
, , ,
(.: Eric von
Hippel. The Sources of Innovation. New York: Oxford University Press, 1988).
. ,
, , . , .
, . .: Rebecca M. Henderson. Keeping Too Close to Your Customers // Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management working
paper, 1993.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 80

07.09.2004 20:04:52

1. ? :
23

24

25

81

, , -,
( 120 . ),
. , .
,
120 .

-. ,
-
. ,
, -,
,
. , 1997 . -
40 40 .
. cit: Lewis H. Young. Samsung Banks on Tiny Flash Cell // Electronic Business Buyer
(21), 1995, July, p. 28.
Richard Tedlow. New and Improved: A History of Mass Marketing in America. Boston:
Harvard Business School Press, 1994.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 81

07.09.2004 20:04:52

, , .
, -
.
,

,
.
,
.
, 1.


1837 .
1920-
.
,
, . ,
(. . 3.1).
-

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 82

07.09.2004 20:04:53

3.

83

.

.
1920- , 32
,
: ,
2. ,
, .
(): , .
,
, .
, ,
. , ,
. 3.1

Osgood General

: Osgood General Herbert L. Nichols, Jr., , (Greenwich, CT:


North Castle, 1955).

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 83

07.09.2004 20:04:53

84

, ,
.
, Bucyrus,
Thew Marion. 25
23 3.
. 3.2, ,
, 1920- -: .
3.2

,
19201934 .

45

40

20

0
1920

1925

1930

: The Thomas Register, .

1928 . , .
: , . .
: ,
, 4.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 84

07.09.2004 20:04:53

3.

85




. 1960- . ,
: .
30
1950- (Insley, Koehring, Little Giant Link Belt)
1970-. - ,
5. . ,
, : J. I. Case, John Deere, Drott, Ford, J. C. Bamford, Poclain, International
Harvester, Caterpillar, O & K, Demag, Leibherr, Komatsu Hitachi6.
?

,

. , , ,
, . 7
:
, , ; , , ; ,
.

, 8.
1945 . , , 0,8 3 (
),
2 3, 4 3. , ,
4% , . ,
,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 85

07.09.2004 20:04:53

86




J. C. Bamford 1947 . , Henry Company (,
) Sherman Products, Inc. (-, ).
HOPTO ( Hydraulically Operated Power TakeOff ), , 1940- 9.
. :
, 10,
.
0,2 3 (. . 3.3).
1,8 .
360 ,
180.
, ,
0,7 3 3. -
.
, Ford,
J. I. Case, John Deere, International Harvester Massey Fergusson. ,
. ,
, ,
. , , ( ) ,
, .
,
.

, , .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 86

07.09.2004 20:04:53

3.

87

3.3

( )

100

10

,


0,1
46

50

54

58

62

66

70

74

78

82

: .

. ,
, , (, ), , .
,
, (
), . Sherman Products,
(. . 3.4), Bobcat.
: , Bobcat
. Bobcat
Ford. ( Ford Bobcat.)
, .
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 87

07.09.2004 20:04:53

88


3.4

Sherman Products

: Bobcat Sherman.
: Sherman Products, Inc. (-, ), 1950- .

. 3.3 ,
.
1955 . 0,28 3, 1960- 0,4 3,
1965- 1,5 3. 1974 .
7,5 3.
, ,
.
, ,
, 1954 . - Demag , 360 .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 88

07.09.2004 20:04:53

3.

89



Seagate Technology , 3,5- , Bucurus Erie,
, .
1950 . ( ) Bucurus Erie Milwaukee Hydraulics Corporation, ,
. Bucurus Erie
, Seagate Technology 3,5- : .
Bucurus Erie 1951 . Hydrohoe.
:
, .
. , Hydrohoe , - , 11. , Bucurus .
, ,
Bucurus, .
Hydrohoe
(. 3.5). , Bucurus Sherman (. 3.2 . ): Bucurus Hydrohoe , ,
, , Hydrohoe , .
,
, Bucurus
.
Hydrohoe Bucurus . Bucurus Hydrohoe , ,
. Bucurus , .
Bucurus Erie
1948 1961 .
12.
Bucurus
Erie Northwest Engineering, 1966 .,
,
, .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 89

07.09.2004 20:04:54

90


3.5

Bucurus Erie

: .
: Bucurus Erie ( , ), 1951.


: , ,
, .
19471965 . 23 . . 3.6
, (

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 90

07.09.2004 20:04:54

3.

91

, ). , .
1960-
, . -,
Hydrohoe Bucurus Erie,
, .
, ,

.
, , , , ,
, . 1940- 1950-

. ,
: .
, , , .
,
3.6

, 19481965 .

18

16
14
12
10
8

6
4
2
0
1950

1955

1960

1965

: .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 91

07.09.2004 20:04:54

92

.
, .

, .
-,
,
,
. .
Insley, Koehring,
Little Giant Link Belt. , , , , 13.
, ,

. -
, , , . 1970-
, ,
14.
, , , , .



. 3.3 (. . ),
, (
),
.
, : . ,
, , .
, , ,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 92

07.09.2004 20:04:55

3.

93

,
, . , , , . , .
, .
, , 1960- ,
.



?
, ,
. - : ,
. ,
. 20 , . , ,
. , , ,
, , , , 1950- .
, ,
. ,
,
.
.
, ,
.
, ,
.
. , ,
.
,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 93

07.09.2004 20:04:55

94

,
, : Richard S. Rosenbloom, Clayton M. Christensen. Technological Discontinuities, Organizational Capabilities, and Strategic Commitments.
, ,
- , .
.
, , ,
. :
Peter Grimshaw. Excavators. Poole, England: Blandford Press, 1985; The Olyslager
Orgnisation, Inc. Eathmoving Vehicles. London: Frederick Warne & Co., Ltd., 1972;
Harold F. Williamson, Kenneth H. Myers. Designed for Digging: The First 75 Years of
Bucurus Erie Company. Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press, 1955; J. L.
Allhands. Tools of the Eathmover. Huntsville, TX: Sam Houston College Press, 1951.
, 25 . , ,
.
, , , . , , ,
, ,
(, , ).
, ,
, . ,
.
, Page . Page
1903 .,
. Page
Bucyrus Erie Marion.
(.: Eric von Hippel. The Sources of Innovation).
, ,
. Bucyrus Erie Marion, , . ( 6360) Marion,
137 3,
. (,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 94

07.09.2004 20:04:55

3.

10

11

95

, -,
, - .) Harnischfeger
, Unit ,
. Northwest ,

, P & H Lorain (
).

. 1996 .
Demag O & K .
.
1837 . 1900- .
. 1970- , .

, , . .

. ,
.

, , Poclain Bruner
Brothers.
. , ,
: .
, Bucurus:
( ), .
. , 1807 .,
:
, , ,
.
, ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 95

07.09.2004 20:04:55

96

12

13

14

. ,
, ,
. (., ,
Richard J. Foster. Innovation: The Attackers Advantage. New York: Summit Books,
1986) ,
1900- . ,
, .
,
. ,
.
, , , .
,
, XIX . ,
, ,
.
Skooper, Koehring
1957 .: .
Skooper , .
Bucurus Erie .
1950- , . 1960- Dynahoe Hy-Dynamic Corporation
, .
Caterpillar ( ) : 1972 .
,
. Caterpillar ,
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 96

07.09.2004 20:04:55

,
:
, ,
. ,

. ,
, ,
.
, ,
( )
.

, .
,
, ,
,
, . - ,
- .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 97

07.09.2004 20:04:55

98



. 4.1 Seagate Technology
. , Seagate .

, .
Seagate, .
19831985 . Seagate ,
. 19871989 . 3,5- . Seagate
, ,
. ,
, 1993 .
.
4.1

Seagate
10 000

()

1000

100

~
~

10

1
81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

: Disk/Trend Report.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 98

07.09.2004 20:04:55

4. ,

99

,
, ,
,
.
, .
.



? ,
: ,
.
(. . 1.7 . 3.3 . ),
. - , .
, ,
, .

,
, , , ,
. ,
.
, - .

: , ,
.
,
, .
.

. 4.2 (. . ).
, -
1981 .,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 99

07.09.2004 20:04:55

100

. , .
-
.
, , 8- -, 40% .

,
25%. ,
,
60%.
?
4.2



6 000 000

40%

( . .)

5 000 000
4 000 000

25%

3 000 000
2 000 000

60%
22%

1 000 000
25%

40%

8-
1981 .,

5,25-
.

8 14-

5,25-

3,5-

14-

8-

5,25-


5,25- 1986 .,

3,5-
.

:
.
: Disk/Trend Report.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 100

07.09.2004 20:04:55

4. ,

101

5,25- 1986 ., ,

3,5-
- .
, ,
.
,
, . , , ,

.

,
. ,
? -
.
,

, , ,
1. .



.
,
, , ,
. , , .
,
2, . ,
, . , , .
, :
, , ,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 101

07.09.2004 20:04:56

102

, .

, , ,
. ,
. , , -
, ,
,
,
. - , . ,
, .
: , , , . ,
, , , , . - , . ,
, ,
, :
,
,
.

.
, ,
.
. :
?
,
600 . , ,
. , .
-
?
, .
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 102

07.09.2004 20:04:56

4. ,

103

. [ ],
,
,
. , .
? ?
, ,
.
?
.
, , , ,
35%.
,

, .
?
, , - .
- . - , , .
-
?
. ,
. , ,
, . ,
270 ,
. -, .
, -? ?
, , . ,
.
?
, , , , ,
.
? , ,
, , , . ,

,
. , -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 103

07.09.2004 20:04:56

104

,
, 3.
( ,

, ),
,
.
, ,
,
. -
, , , ,
, , ,
. . , , .
,
.
, , ,
. ,
.

: 1,8-
, . 1992 . ,
,
. , , . 1.7 (. ),
1,8-
. , ,
, : - ? , . .
1993 .
1,8- ,
.
1994 .
, ,
1,8- .
. ? .
1,8- , . . -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 104

07.09.2004 20:04:56

4. ,

105

, ,
.
, , Disk/Trend Report,
,
, 1993 . 40 . ., 80 . . 1994 . 140 . . 1995-.
, , .
. . . , , .
. .
-,
, . .
- .
Honda.
Honda,
. , .
:
?
:
1,8- .
: ,
. .
? .
, .
, .
, .
: , 1,8- , ,
, ,
. - ,
,
. , , ,
,
. :

80 . ., , ,
. ( .) -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 105

07.09.2004 20:04:56

106

, 80 . 1,8- ,
.
, : ,
. , : , .
-
,
, .



, .
, ,
, , .
,
8- Priam, Quantrum Shugart
5,25- . , Digital Equipment, Prime Computer, Data General, Wang
Laboratories Nixdorf, .
, .
14- , , Univac, Burroughs, NCR,
ICL, Siemens Amdahl,
-.

,
, , .
,
. .

,
, . -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 106

07.09.2004 20:04:56

4. ,

107

,
- .



-
1960-. -,
,
, , , , .
- ,
,
. ( : ,
, , .)
- .
:
, -.
-
. 1995 . - ,
(0,6 2,3 ). - 15% .
1995 . - 400 . .,
6 .4 , ,
, -5. - 1965 . 19% 1975-, 32% 1985- 40%
1995 . ,
6. -, ,
, .
-. ? ,
, : , , , .
U.S. Steel Corp. ,
. Bethlehem Steel Corp.
,

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 107

07.09.2004 20:04:56

108

, , -

, . , ,
, ,
7.

,
, 8.

, .
,
- . ,
, ,
Nippon, Kawasaki NKK , British Steel Hoogovens Pohang
Steel , -, , .
. ,
USX : 1980 .
-, 1991- .
93
1980 . 23 1991- 2 . . .
.
?
- .
1960- , , ,
- . . , ,
,
. .
:
, , ,
.
.
- .
: - , ( ) -

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 108

07.09.2004 20:04:56

4. ,

109

; .

.
- , , Nucor Chaparral,
, .

, -
, .

.
. 4.3, - . 1980 .
90% 30% ,
, . - ,
.

4.3

1975

1980

1985

1990

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 109

07.09.2004 20:04:56

110

,
1980- -.
- , , ,
. Nucor
, Chaparral ,
.
. 1992 . USX
, Bethlehem Steel . Bethlehem
1995 ., -.
. 1980- , -, .
, ,
, , . ,
1980- , .
,
-. 2 . .
,
-.
. , Bethlehem Steel 175 . . 1986 . 2,4 . . 1989-.
1,3 . . ,
, .
-:
( Bethlehem) .
,

Bethlehem.
,
. . ,
Campbell Soup ( )9.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 110

07.09.2004 20:04:56

4. ,

111

:
,
: . (US Steel) 3 .

, (
)10.

,
. ?


-
,
. 1987 . Schloemann-Siemag AG

: , , ,
. ,

, ,
, . ,
250 . .
, .
-,
. , 20%.
,
. , USX, 11.
- Nucor
Steel, . ?
, , .

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 111

07.09.2004 20:04:57

112

,
, .
. ,
, .

,
. , 19871988 . 150 . .
, Bethlehem, USX
250 . .
, .
, Nucor . Nucor
, ,
,
, .
Nucor 1989 . ( )
, , 1992 .
( ). 1995 . 80%
. ,
Nucor 1996 . 7%
, , Nucor
. , , , Nucor
.
,
- , ,
.
,
: -
.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 112

07.09.2004 20:04:57

4. ,

113


, , . ,
.
, , ( ).
, , ,
. ,
. - . ,
(A&P), , . . , (Sears),
(), . ,
, , , .
.
,
. ,
, , ,

, .
. ? ,
, ,
(Malcom P. McNair. Significant Trends and Developments in the Post-War Period //
Competitive Distribution in a Free High-Level Economy and Its Implications for the
University / Ed. by Albert B. Smith. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1958,
pp. 1718).
, , , ,
.
.: Joseph Bower. Managing the Resource Allocation Process. Homewood, IL: Richard
D. Irwin, 1970.
, , . , ,
,
. , . :

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 113

07.09.2004 20:04:57

114

7
8

10

11

Roger Martin. Changing the Mind of the Corporation. // Harvard Business Review,
November December, . 8194.
- , ,
1990 . .
, .

.
.: The U.S. Steel Industry: An Historical Overview // Goldman Sachs U.S. Research
Report, 1995.
Op. cit.: What Caused the Decline // Business Week, 1980, June 30, . 74.
Op. cit.: Donald B. Thompson. Are Steels Woes Just Short-term // Industry Week, 1982,
February 22, . 31.
Op. cit.: Gregory L. Miles. Forging the New Bethlehem // Business Week, 1989, June 5,
. 108110.
Op. cit.: Seth Lubove, James R. Norman. New Lease on Life // Forbes, 1994, May 9,
. 87.
U.S. Steel .
Continuous Casting Investments at USX Corporation. No 697-020.

_-1_Ch 01-04.indd 114

07.09.2004 20:04:57

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 115

07.09.2004 20:06:05

116

, .

.
.
. ,
,
, , ,
. , ; ,
; ,
.
,
: . , ;
,
. , ,

. -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 116

07.09.2004 20:06:07

117

. , ,
.
. .
, , ,

, .

.
, ,
,
. ,
-
, ,
,
, ,
.

.
,
. , ,
. , ,
. ,
.
, , , . :
1. : .
2. .
3. ,
; .
4. ,
; ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 117

07.09.2004 20:06:08

118

,
.
5. ;
,
,
.
?
1. , .

,
.
2.
,
.
3. ,
. ,
,
, . .
4. ,
, . ,

.
5.
, , ,

.
,
.
, 1, , ,
.
: ,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 118

07.09.2004 20:06:08

119

, ,
, . .

, ,
, , . ,
. (
) - . , : . ,
, : ? !
, .
,
, ,
, ,
, - -.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 119

07.09.2004 20:06:08

, ,
, - , .
: , .
,
, , .
, .

, 1. ,
,
. ,
, ,
, ,
. , , 2. , , ,
,
.
, .
-

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 120

07.09.2004 20:06:08

5.

121

.
, , , .
, ,
, , . ,
, .
, ,
, .
, ,
, . , ,
, .
.
, : ,
, ,
.
,
. ,
? , , , ,
, . ,
. ?
, , , , ,
, . , , ,
, . ,
, .


. , , .
:

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 121

07.09.2004 20:06:08

122

, , ; ,
. ,
.
, . , , ,
, . : ,
, , .
,
,
. , ,
,
, , ,
.

3.
,
. . ,
, .
:

. , 4.

? , , , . , ,
, , ,
.
. , ,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 122

07.09.2004 20:06:08

5.

123


. ,
. , :

.
, .

Quantum Plus Development


, Quantum, 1980- 8- -,
5,25- .
-, Quantum .
1984 . Quantum 3,5- IBM XT
AT. , OEM- -, Quantum. Quantum
.
. Quantum , 80%
Quantum Plus Development,
. , . Plus Development .
, Matsushita Kotobuki Electronics .
8- Quantum 1980-
, Plus. 1987 .
Quantum 8- 5,25- .
20% Plus, Plus
Quantum. 3,5- Plus OEM- , Apple. , 3,5-
(. . 1.7 . ).
3,5- ,
Quantum

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 123

07.09.2004 20:06:08

124

,
,
, 2,5- . 1994 . Quantum 5.

Control Data
Control Data (CDC) . 1965 1982 . CDC
14- OEM, 5562%.
1970- 8- , CDC
, 8- ,
.
:
8- ,
14- CDC.
5,25- CDC
, Seagate 1980 . .
CDC 5,25-
-. ,
, CDC .
.
CDC , - 20%
5,25- .

Micropolis:
Micropolis, 8-
1978 . ,
.
, Quantum Control Data, ,
.

.
Micropolis 1982 ., ,
(. . 1.7 . ),
, 5,25- -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 124

07.09.2004 20:06:08

5.

125

. 8- , Micropolis
6, 5,25- . ,
, , ,
, 8- .
1984 . Micropolis
- 8- . 5,25- .
. 5.1 , : Micropolis
.

. , .
5.1

Micropolis
1000

400

100

200

5,2

()

600

60

8-

40

20

1
79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

: Disk/Trend Report.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 125

07.09.2004 20:06:08

126

Micropolis 3,5- 1993 .


3,5-
1 . , Micropolis
3,5- .



, Seagate Technology, 3,5- , Bucyrus Erie
Hydrohoe ,
. Seagate, Bucyrus .
, ,
,
, .

, ? . , , ,
, . , , , ,
, , . , Quantum Control Data
. , ,
. Micropolis , ,
, , .

, ,
7.
,
, , Quantum Control
Data, , .

DEC, IBM
,
, . ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 126

07.09.2004 20:06:08

5.

127


(. . 1.7 . ) ,
. IBM,
, , . IBM -
: ,
, . , Digital Equipment, Data General,
Prime, Wang Nixdorf . IBM -, :
IBM .
- , .
,
Apple, Commodore, Tandy IBM. ,
, .
1980- , ,
-.
-. ,
.

.
, Toshiba, Sharp Zenith.
Apple IBM ,
.
, , Digital Equipment,

-.
, DEC , .
19831995 . .
,
-. DEC
, -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 127

07.09.2004 20:06:09

128

. .
? DEC 8.
,
, , , ,
. , , DEC Alpha.
DEC , .

, .
IBM

- .
IBM ? ,
- -, ,
, , ,
, , . ,
, - IBM . -,

.
, ,
,

.
, Micropolis DEC:

. , , , ;
, ,
, .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 128

07.09.2004 20:06:09

5.

129

Kresge, Wookworth

, ,
.
,
. , , ,
.
Korvettes,
1950- -. Korvettes
. , 2040% ,
. , , .
,
, .
, , , 9.
, .
,

. , , ,
.
40%,
. , 40%
, ( ),
, 160%.
,
. ,
,
(
5.1 . ).
-. -, ,
-

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 129

07.09.2004 20:06:09

130

, (, ), ,
. . 5.2 : ( , ) 10% 1960 .
40% .
5.1

,
*

R. H. Macy

40%

160%

F. W. Woolworth

36%

144%

Kmart

20%

160%

* x ; ,
.
: .

5.2

,
, (%)

, 19601966 .

100
80
60
40
20
0
1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

: Discount Merchandiser.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 130

07.09.2004 20:06:09

5.

131

,
, S.S. Kresge, F.W. Woolworth
Dayton Hudson,
.
, Sears, Montgomery Ward, J.C. Penney R.H. Macy,
. Kresge ( Kmart)
Dayton Hudson ( Target) 10. , . . Woolworth, ,
Woolco, F.W. Woolworth.
Kresge Woolworth, ,
, ,
.
S.S. Kresge,
,
1957 ., . 1961 . Kresge
F.W. Woolworth (
) .
1962 . .
Woolco Kmart . Kmart 3,5 . .,
Woolco 0,9 . .11
, Kresge
. 1959 .
. ,
Kresge .
: 1961 . , , 12. 1961 .
, 10%
Kresge. .
Woolworth
, . , Woolworth,
.
, Woolco
-

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 131

07.09.2004 20:06:09

132

13. , 1960- ,
Woolworth ,
1950-.
( ), Woolworth
, .
1967 . Woolco
. Woolworth
Woolco , 1971 .
.
Woolco Woolworth, . ,
( , )
. Woolco Woolworth,

. Woolworth - Woolco , ,
100 000 14.

? ,
. Woolco

33%. .
Woolco , , F.W. Woolworth:
35% 140% (.
. 5.3). Woolco ,
. , Woolworth : 1982 .
Woolco.
, Woolworth
, Digital Equipment
. , , ,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 132

07.09.2004 20:06:09

5.

133

5.3

Woolco F.W. Woolworth - Woolco


50

(%)

40

F.W. Woolworth, 1960

Woolco, 1972
30
Woolco
, 1962

Woolco F.W. Woolworth



, 1971

20


Woolco, 1967
10
3


: Discount Merchandiser F.W. Woolworth .

:
Hewlett-Packard
Hewlett-Packard
,
- .
Hewlett-Packard ,
,
. 1980- HP
, , , .
( ),
,
.
, ,
15.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 133

07.09.2004 20:06:09

134

,
.
, .
.
. ,
.
HP -
( ).

( ) .
.
. . 5.4, .
5.4


26
24
22

(/)

20
18

16
14
12
10
8
6

4
2
0
83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

: Hewlett-Packard .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 134

07.09.2004 20:06:09

5.

135

HP ,
,
. .
, ,
, . ,
- . -, .
,
, , .
HP
, . , ,
, . HP .
HP , , ,
. - ,
, Canon,
HP.
, HP , 16.

.: Jeffrey Pfeffer, Gerald R. Salancik.


The External Control of Organizations: A Resource Dependence Perspective. New York:
Harper & Row, 1978.
, ,

.
: Joseph L. Bower.
Managing the Resource Allocation Process. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin, 1972.
Chester Barnard. The Functions of the Executive. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University
Press, 1938, p. 190191.
Quantum Hardcard ,
: Robert Burgelman. Intraorganizational
Ecology of Strategy-Making and Organizational Adaptation: Theory and Field
Research // Organization Science (2), 1991, pp. 239262. , , .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 135

07.09.2004 20:06:10

136

10

11

12

13
14

15

16

Micropolis ,
, :
James Utterback. Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation (Boston: Harvard Business
School Press, 1994). , ,
,
.
, , ,
, : Richard S. Rosenbloom, Clayton
M. Christensen. Technological Discontinuities, Organizational Capabilities, and Strategic
Commitments // Industrial and Corporate Change (3), 1994, pp. 655685.
, DEC 1990-
.
DEC ( Quantum Control Data). DEC
, -
.
Op. cit.: Harvard Study on Discount Shoppers // Discount Merchandiser, 1963, September, p. 71.
, , Kmart , WalMart , .
Kmart Kresge.
Kmart Kresge
.
Woolworth Kresge
. : The Discount
Retailing Revolution in America. No 695081.
Op. cit.: Robert Drew-Bear. S.S. Kresges Kmarts // Mass Merchandising: Revolution
and Evolution. New York: Fairchild Publications, 1970, p. 218.
Op. cit.: F.W. Woolworth Company Annual Report, 1981, p. 8.
Op. cit.: Woolco Gets Lions Share of New Space // Chain Store Age, 1972, November,
p. 27.
, PR. , Woolworth 100 000
!
., : The Desktop Printer Industry in 1990 // Harvard Business School,
Case No 9-390-173.
,
A&P, ,
(.: Richard Tedlow. New and Improved:
The Story of Mass Marketing in America. Boston: Harvard Business School Press,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 136

07.09.2004 20:06:10

5.

137

1996). A&P, A&P


, , , A&P
. Kroger. , (
, ) ,
. Kroger . ,
, , A&P,
.
, A&P . ,
. A&P .
, .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 137

07.09.2004 20:06:10



, , , , - . ,
.
:
, ,

.
,
,
. ,
.
,
, .
, ,
( ), ,
, .

?
, , , :
? -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 138

07.09.2004 20:06:10

6.

139

, ,
. , : ,
, .




-. . ,
, ,
, 100 . . 5
15 , .
, , ,
1970- , .
?
- , ? ,
,
(. . 6.1 6.2 . ).
. 6.1 ,
.
. , ,
,
. ,
. IBM ,
3 .
Memorex Storage Technology.
Fujitsu Hitachi
, ,
IBM .
.
( ) ? , , ,

. , ,
-, - ,
, .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 139

07.09.2004 20:06:10

140


6.1


-
100 000
80 000
60 000
50 000
Fujitsu
40 000

DEC
Hitachi

Priam

20 000

nis
c

rib

Micropolis

6000

Toshiba

Qu

Seagate

Me

mo

ant

rex

8000

CDC

10 000

um

Mi

NEC

ST

( 1 2)

30 000

5000

Hewlett-Packard
IBM

4000
3000


-

-

2000

1000
76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

: Disk/Trend Report.

. 6.2. ,
: IBM
, Memorex , Fujitsu . 1989 .
, ,
, ,
, -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 140

07.09.2004 20:06:10

6.

141

6.2


1989 .
1
Hewlett-Packard
(75)
Micropolis
(72)

2
IBM
(62)

1989 .
(1 ; 15 )

Hitachi
(64)

Nippon Electric
(58)

Digital Equipment
(57)

5
Control Data
(53)

Fujitsu
(50)

7
Toshiba
(47)

8
Rodime
(45)

Quantum
(44)

10
Priam
(45)

11
Memorex
(30)

12

Seagate
(27)

13
Storage Technology
(25)

14
15
0

10

12

14

16


(1 ; 15 )
: Clayton M. Christensen. Exploring the Limits of the Technology S-Curve. Part I: Component Technologies // Production and
Operations Management 1, No 4 (Fall 1992), p. 347. .

. ,
1.

2.


, , , , ,

, . , , -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 141

07.09.2004 20:06:10

142

,
, , .
1976 1993 .
83 , 35 , Memorex, Ampex, 3M Xerox,
, 48 , .
, ( ) - , , - /
, , .

6.1. :

, 3.
:
, 4. , ,
, ( ), ,
,
( ).
, ,
(, ,
).
,
. () ,
100 . . ,
; ()
100 . . ;
() ; () ,
100 . ., 1994 . 5. (%) ,
100 . . , .
, 100 . .
(6%) 51, .
, 37% , , ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 142

07.09.2004 20:06:10

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 143

12
3
30

3
0
0
0
3

362,6
17,7
3292,9

0
0
6

15
4
52

0
0
7

15
4
42

0
0
3

: Disk/Trend Report.

1
0
12

7
4

2721,0
191,6

11
0

28
5

7
0

18
5

3
0

(. .)

: , , , .

4
0
17

11
2

4
0
13

1
0
9

361,2
17,7
3 056,2

7
2

4
4

0
0
4

4
0

0
0
3

3
0

(%)

0
0
8

2 485,7
191,6

(. .)

(%)
17
0

1,4
0,0
236,7

235,3
0,0

(. .)

0
0
0

0
0

(%)

12
3
37

18
4

3
1
15

10
1

0
0
4

4
0

0
0
3

3
0

11
4

3
1
12

0
0
0

7
1

0
0

0
0
3

3
0

0
0
2

2
0

0
0
1

1
0

5
0
32

21
6

5
0
24

13
6

0
0
8

8
0

20

37

33
67

(%)

20

36

2239,0

62 123,0

48 423,0
11 461,0

(. .)

2239,0

45 743,7

32 043,7
11 461,0

(. .)

(%)
31
67

16 379,3

16 379,3

(. .)

37

37

(%)

, 19761994 . 100 . .

6.1

6.
143

07.09.2004 20:06:11

144

100 . . (. 6.1).
, . -, , , ,
6.
13% ,
( ),
20% . , ,
.
( ) , ,
( ). . , ,
19761994 . 62 . . 7,
, , ,
3,3 . . : ,
,
20 , , . .
, (
), 64,5 . . ,
1,9 . . , ,
, .
,
,
, 8.



, (
) . , , .
,
. ,
, :
, , , , .

. ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 144

07.09.2004 20:06:11

6.

145

. , , (
), , ,
, 9. ,
20- , 15%,
, , ,
. , ;
.
,
(
). , . ,
. ,
.
,
, , 10. .
, - ,
.
: 40 . . 20- , ,
8 . ., 9,6 .
. .; 400 . . 20- , 80 . .
, 96 . . .; 4 . .
800 . ., 960 . . . .
, .
, , , 800 . . .
,
,
.
?
. :
1. ,

.
2. , , ,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 145

07.09.2004 20:06:11

146

3. ,
,
.
,
. , .

:

Apple Computer
,
.
Apple Computer Apple I 1976 .
, 200 666 ., . . Apple I ,
, ,
.
Apple II. , 1977 .,
. 11
43 000 , 1980 . .
Apple II Apple Computer 5 . ., , ,

.
1990- .
, , 1978 ., Apple II
, Apple.
,
, .
Apple ?
Newton. Newton
; , ,
. , , , Apple
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 146

07.09.2004 20:06:11

6.

147

19931994 . Newton
Apple 140 000 . , Newton . , . ,
Newton , Apple, 1%
. ,
Apple .
Newton ? Newton
Apple II
: ,
, , , Apple. , Newton
, Apple II, Apple. 1979 . Apple
43 000 Apple II ,
Apple 1994 . 140 000 Newton .
, , . -
, ,
, ,
, ,
.
, . , Apple , : Apple I
, Apple II , Apple II+ ,
Apple III - , Lisa .
Macintosh.
Macintosh Apple
,
, 12.
, Newton, Apple

, . , , ,
, , ( , ). ,
, , , , Apple

.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 147

07.09.2004 20:06:11

148

, , , .
, . , ,
, ,
. , - Newton, Apple , ,
. Newton .
Newton .
,
Apple. :
.

:
:
,
, ,
. ,
IBM 1981 ., : ,
, .
.
Priam, 1978 . 8-
- ,

-.
5,25- Seagate Technology, 1980 .,
, 8- Priam
-. 1983 . Seagate , 5,25- , . Seagate Priam
, Seagate
,
Priam .
5,25- Priam 1982 . 5,25-

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 148

07.09.2004 20:06:12

6.

149

, -,
. :
. Seagate, , Priam,
. Priam 1990 .

. Seagate Technology
3,5- . 1984 . , Seagate 1985 ., , 10
Comdex 1985 . Seagate 3,5- 1986 . :
13. 1987 ., 3,5- 1,6 . . ,
, Seagate . 1991 .
.
5,25- . ?
, , , Conner Peripherals, 3,5- ,
. Conner: . , ,
. .
, , 14.
, Conner , . , ,
15. Conner, Seagate ,
Conner .
16.

:

, ,
, . , ,
,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 149

07.09.2004 20:06:12

150

. ,
, ,
.
,
, , .
,
, ,
. . ,
, ,
, , .
,
.
, .
. ,
,
, , , : 17.
. , Control Data, , 8- ,
- 5,25- . Control Data
- CDC, , .
, ,
50 . [
1 . . 14- ],
, .
CDC - .
,
. Allen Bradley

.
Allen Bradley (AB), ,
.
,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 150

07.09.2004 20:06:12

6.

151

.
AB , ,
, . ,
, .
,


. ( ) ,

, , . .
1963 . Modicon
.
Texas Instruments (TI). , ,
AB, Modicon TI , . ,

.
Modicon TI .
, , Ford General Motors,
.

Allen Bradley, Square D, Cutler Hammer, General Electric
Westinghouse Allen Bradley
,
. Allen Bradley Modicon
, .
. ,
, . ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 151

07.09.2004 20:06:12

152

General Electric Westinghouse


, Allen Bradley,
.
Allen Bradley ? 1969 .
Modicon AB Information,
- (
). Bunker Ramo, . AB
, .
AB 18. ,

,
,
.
Johnson & Johnson , Allen
Bradley, .
20 . ., J&J 160
MacNeil Janssen Pharmaceuticals
20 . . Johnson
& Johnson
, .

, , .
, , , . .
:
,
. , ,
, .
-, ,
, -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 152

07.09.2004 20:06:12

6.

153

. ( ),
:
. , , ,
-. ,
, , .
,
, .
, .
, . , ,
.



(.: Robert Hayes. Strategic Planning: Forward in Reverse? // Harvard Business Review,
1985, November December, 1985, pp. 190197).
.
, , , ,
. (PLA),
(.: Rebecca M. Henderson, Kim B. Clark.
Architectural Innovation: The Reconfiguration of Existing Systems and the Failure of
Established Firms).
, , . ,
PLA , :
, . PLA (
)
, .
,
: PLA
, . , .
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 153

07.09.2004 20:06:12

154

, National Cash
Register (.: Richard S.
Rosenbloom. From Gears to Chips: The Transformation of NCR and Harris in the
Digital Era // Harvard Business School Business History Seminar working paper, 1988).
NCR, ,
1970- . 1970-
, -
. NCR
, : NCR . ,
. - NCR , . , ,
, ,
.
, , .
, ,
. , ,
. -, . ,
.
, , , . ,

, , ,
(, ). , ,
, - . .: Clayton M. Christensen.
Exploring the Limits of the Technology S-Curve.
,
, - ,
, 20% .

, ; -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 154

07.09.2004 20:06:12

6.

10

11

155

,
.
. Xerox ,
Diablo, Century Data Shugart Associates.
, Xerox .
Xerox Western Digital Tandon. 6.1 , Xerox Western Digital.
Plus Development, Quantum,
6.1 .

. , , ,
, , , ,
, ,
, .

.
. ,

1990- . ,
, ,
.
, ,
. : Lowell
W. Steele. Managing Technology. New York: McGraw Hill, 1989.
(
). , : Allan N. Afuah and
Nik Bahrain. The Hypercube of Innovation // Research Policy (21), 1992.
,
, P = D/(C-G), P , D
, G .
: Clayton M. Christensen. Is Growth an Enabler
of Good Management, or the Result of It? // Harvard Business School working paper,
1996.
.: Scott Lewis. Apple Computer, Inc. // International Directory of Company Histories /
Ed. By Adele Hast. Chicago: St. James Press, 1991, pp. 115116.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 155

07.09.2004 20:06:12

156


12

13

14

15

16

17

18


.: Paul Frieberger, Michael Swaine. Fire in the Valley: The Making of the Personal
Computer. Berkeley, CA: Osborne-McGraw Hill, 1984.
Can 3.5 Drives Displace 5.25s in Personal Computing? // Electronic Business, 1986,
August 1, pp. 8184.
. , - Conner Peripherals, 19 1991 .
,
, , .: Dorothy LeonardBarton. Core Capabilities and Core Rigidities: A Paradox in Managing New Product
Development // Strategic Management Journal (13), 1992, pp. 111125.
. ,
- Conner Peripherals, 27
1992 .
., : George Gilder. The Revitalization of Everything: The Law of the
Microcosm // Harvard Business Review, 1988, March April, pp. 4962.
Allen Bradley : John Gurda.
The Bradley Legacy. Milwaukee: The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, 1992.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 156

07.09.2004 20:06:13

, , : .

. , , ,
, . ,
, , ,
, ,
.
,
, , , , .
, ,
,
.
: ,
,
. ,

.
, .
, , ,

(

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 157

07.09.2004 20:06:13

158

) , . , , -, ( ), -,
( , , ) , -,
( ). , ,

.
, ,
.
,

, .




,
.
Disk/Trend Report, Disk/Trend
(-, ),
, 1975 . , , .
, Disk/Trend
, . Disk/Trend ,

, . , Disk/Trend .
Disk/Trend
( )

. (, )
. , Disk/Trend
,
, .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 158

07.09.2004 20:06:13

7.

159

. 7.1. , Disk/Trend Report


, .
, 100%, . , Disk/Trend
, 14- Winchester 2,5-
;
, . 1,8-, 5,25-
3,5- , . (Disk/Trend
8- .)
, Disk/Trend 2,5 14- (Winchester)
8% 7% .
5,25- 265%, 3,5-
35% ( ) 1,8-
550%. , 1,8-
, .
7.1

300

250

200

150

100

50

2,5-
14-

Winchester

5,25- 3,5- 1,8-

: Disk/Trend Report.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 159

07.09.2004 20:06:13

160

Disk/Trend
, : ,
, . . ,
, .

1,3- Kittyhawk
Hewlett-Packard
1,3- Kittyhawk1. 1991 .
(Disk Memory Division; DMD) HewlettPackard ( )
20 . . 600 . .
DMD 1,3- 20 .
Kittyhawk. HP - :
3,5- , DMD
. Kittyhawk
, ,
.
, Kittyhawk, HP,
150 . . ,
Kittyhawk, -
1,3- . , Kittyhawk
, . , , , Kittyhawk .
HP
, Motorola, ATT, IBM,
Apple, Microsoft, Intel, NCR Hewlett-Packard, . , Kittyhawk, Kittyhawk, ,
.
, Kittyhawk, , , , . (. . 7.2).
20 , , -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 160

07.09.2004 20:06:13

7.

161

7.2

Kittyhawk Hewlett-Packard

: Hewlett Packard Company. .

, 40 . Kittyhawk
,
, ,
1 .
250 . .
Kittyhawk ,
.
, Apple Newton
.
, HP .
Kittyhawk .
, , HP,
DMD
. ,
, Kittyhawk , .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 161

07.09.2004 20:06:13

162

, , ,
Kittyhawk.
Kittyhawk
, HP
, . Kittyhawk, HP
. Kittyhawk, , , , ,
.
HP Kittyhawk
. Kittyhawk
2,5- 1,8- ,
, , Kittyhawk .
( HP
). Kittyhawk, -
, : 50 . .
10 .
, HP Kittyhawk , , ,
.
, , ,
,
1,3- ,
. HP
Kittyhawk 1994 .
, HP
, , .
, , , , , (,
), .
, , , , Kittyhawk.
Kittyhawk, ,
,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 162

07.09.2004 20:06:14

7.

163

.
, ,
, ,
, .
, Hewlett-Packard
, , . ,
.

Honda

Honda
, ,
. Honda
, : ,
, , ,
,
, .
Honda
,
Harley-Davidson BMW, 2. Honda
,
, ,
Honda.
Honda
, ,
- . Honda
3.
Honda ,
.
.
1200 1949 . 285 000 1959-.
Honda ,
, ,
Supercub. Honda
,
-

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 163

07.09.2004 20:06:14

164

, . , Honda
, 1959 . Honda -
. ,
, Supercub .

. , Honda , ,
.
Honda -
. . ,
Honda ,
, .
: , , , . . Honda
.
Honda , ,
Supercub -. , .
, .
.
. Honda ,
, Supercub
. : - Supercub , . Sears Supercub
, Honda
, .
,
Supercub, ,
. ,
Supercub
50 3. -
,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 164

07.09.2004 20:06:14

7.

165

,
.
,
, Supercub ,
. . Honda . ,
Honda.
Honda .
-,
Supercub, Honda ! .
, ,
, Honda , . ,

, Honda
.
Honda
50 3 . ,
Supercub, ,
, Harley-Davidson, BMW
.
, , , ,
, Honda 19701988 . ,
.
1960- 1970- Harley, ,
, Honda, , 150300 3,
, Aeromecchania,
.
Honda Harley,

- .
; , ,
Harley-Davidson .
, ,

, ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 165

07.09.2004 20:06:14

166

,
, . . Harley ,
Harley. Harley, . 1970- Harley
. Seagate
-.
, Honda .
1959 . 10%
, 550 000 ,
5%. 1975 . 16%
5 . , ,
,
, 4.


Intel
Intel, 1969 .
(DRAM)
, 1995 .
.
Intel , , 19781986 .
DRAM
, DRAM . Intel ?
Intel
. Intel
,
Intel. Intel

.
,
.

1960- .
, , ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 166

07.09.2004 20:06:14

7.

167

,
.
1970- DRAM
Intel , ,
, . Intel
. ,

DRAM ,
5.
Intel -
DRAM, .
Intel .
,
.
, Intel ,
IBM Intel 8088
Intel
6. IBM , Intel
, 286-, ,
50 7.

. , , ,
Intel , .



, , , , .
,
. , ,
: .
,
. :

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 167

07.09.2004 20:06:14

168

,
.
6.1 (. . ),
,
, (37%)
(6%)? ,
? ,
, . , , , .
, 8.


, ,
.
. Intel . , Intel
,
. Intel
,
. Honda ,
, , ,
. Kittyhawk Hewlett-Packard . , ,
, .
, Kittyhawk .
,
, ,
, , ,
9. ,

.
( ),
- .
, ,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 168

07.09.2004 20:06:14

7.

169


,
. , , :
, - , .
,
,
.

, , 10.

. ,
,
. ,
, . 65% ,
, ,
.
, , ,
, ,
.

,
,
, .
,
. ,
. , .
,
, , ,
. ,
. , ,
, -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 169

07.09.2004 20:06:14

170

.
-,

,
, .
. ,
, 11. Kittyhawk Hewlett-Packard
Citizen Watch
. , , , , HP, .
HP ,
,
, .
,
.
Kittyhawk ,

, . Kittyhawk ,
-
.
, . , , ,
,
.
, , , . , ,
. Honda ,
,
12. ,
, , ,
.
, -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 170

07.09.2004 20:06:14

7.

171

, , ,
,
.
, . , , , , , - .

7
8

, : Hewlett-Packard: The Flight of the Kittyhawk // Harvard Business School, Case


No 9-697-060, 1996.
Honda
(A Note on the Motorcycle Industry 1975. Case No 9-578-210) The Boston Consulting Group (Strategy Alternatives for the British Motorcycle
Industry. 1975).
.: Richard Pascale, E. Tatum Christiansen. Honda (A) // Harvard Business School
Teaching, Case No 9-384-049, 1984; Iidem. Honda (B) // Harvard Business School,
Teaching Case No 9-384-050, 1984.
.: Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.: United States Bureau
of the Census, 1980, p. 648.
Intel DRAM
.: Robert A. Burgelman. Fading Memories: A Process Theory of Strategic Business
Exit in Dynamic Environments // Administrative Science Quarterly (39), 1994,
pp. 2456. .
Op. cit: George W. Cogan, Robert A. Burgelman. Intel Corporation (A): The DRAM
Decision. Stanford Business School, Case No PS-BP-256.
.: Robert A. Burgelman. Fading Memories...
, . ,
, ,
, , , ,
, , . (.: Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman. Judgment Under Uncertainty:
Heuristics and Biases // Science (185), 1974, pp. 11241131.) ,
( ), ,
; ( ), .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 171

07.09.2004 20:06:15

172

10

11

12

: Myra M. Hare.
Founding Resource Choices: Influences and Effects. DBA thesis. Harvard University
Graduate School of Business Administration, 1995; Amar Bhide. How Entrepreneurs
Craft Strategies that Work // Harvard Business Review, 1994, March April,
pp. 150163; Idem. Bootstrap Finance: The Art of Start-Ups // Harvard Business
Review, 1992, November December, pp. 109118; Hewlett-Packards Kittyhawk.
Harvard Business School, Case No 9-697-060; Vallourecs Venture into Metal Injection
Molding. Harvard Business School, Case No 9-697-001.
Joseph Bower. Managing the Resource Allocation Process. Homewood, IL: Richard D.
Irwin, 1970, p. 254.
.: Rita G. McGrath, Ian C. MacMillan. Discovery-Driven Planning // Harvard Business
Review, 1995, July August, pp. 412.
: Peter F. Drucker. Innovation and
Entrepreneurship. New York: Harper & Row, 1985.
, Intuit ,
Quicken
. Intuit , Quickbooks, 70%
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 172

07.09.2004 20:06:15


,
, . , , ,
, , . ,
, ,
. , .
,
.
, , , , , . .
, , , .
, .
,
, ,
.
, , , , ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 173

07.09.2004 20:06:15

174

,
, , . 1.
, ,
- .
, ,
,
.


. ,
,
, .
, .
. , (
) , ,
, 2.

, , . , , , , ,
,
. :
, ,
, . : ,
, . ,

.
, , .
, .
, ,
, - ,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 174

07.09.2004 20:06:15

8.

175

, , ,
, , , , , , ,
. , , , , 3.
, , ,
, , .
. : , . :
, , .
:
, .
. , ,
, .
de facto,
.
, , , , , . ,
, ,
. , ,
, 4. 5.
, ,
. , , ,
.
,
.
,
,
, , , . ,
, . ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 175

07.09.2004 20:06:15

176

- ,
, ,
, , . .
.

, ,
. , , , Alcoa
Johnson & Johnson, .
. , ; ,
, ,
.. , .
. , -
, , .

: ,
, .
, ,

-. ,
6.
,
, .
-,
, ,
. , 40- , , , ,
40%.
, .
.
.
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 176

07.09.2004 20:06:15

8.

177

, . , , . ,
. , Toyota Corona,
. Nissan,
Honda Mazda,
. , Toyota
. Corolla, Camry, Previa, Avalon Lexus
,
. Toyota ,
.
, .
Nucor Steel,
-,

.
,
,
.
,
, .
, ,
,
. 25%,
40 . .
10 . ., 40 . . 10 . , , . , , ,
.
, , ,
.
, . .
-,
,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 177

07.09.2004 20:06:15

178

, ,
.
. Hewlett-Packard
.

:


,
. , : 116 ,
, 111 ,
.
, , ,
. 111
, . 100- .
116 :
, .
.

.
?
.
, ,
, . ,
, . ,
, , ,
.

, . , : -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 178

07.09.2004 20:06:16

8.

179

,
. , , , , . -
.

.
, .
,
.
, , ,
.
,

. , ,
, . , .


, :
, , , .

.
, .
- ,
, .
, ,
,
,
, (
), ,
.
Avid
Technology, .

,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 179

07.09.2004 20:06:16

180

Avid 16 . 1993 . 49 .
1995 . . Avid
: ,
, . , Avid
,
. .
, ,
McKinsey, ,
, .

. : , . McKinsey.
,

, .

,
, ,
.
, . , , , , .

,
.
. , ,
, .
, ,
. ,
, ,
7. ,
: -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 180

07.09.2004 20:06:16

8.

181

, .
. .
.
, , , . ,
, . , , ,
, .
,
. , ,
.

Digital Equipment: ?
Digital Equipment (DEC) 19601980- -. 1980-,
, , DEC .
DEC, ?
, DEC
.
, . , . DEC ? .
- .
- . DEC

.
. - .
,
:

. ,
,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 181

07.09.2004 20:06:16

182

.
. , , DEC . , DEC , ,
, ,
, ,
. , ,
.
DEC? - ,
-, DEC
, :
50% , ; 40%,
. ,

, .
,
DEC.
-, .

, , . - , -
, Digital
.
, Digital Equipment
,
. ( ),
-,
.


, -
, - ,
. ,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 182

07.09.2004 20:06:16

8.

183

, ,
, ;
. , ,
. ,
, .
:
.
, ,
,
:
, ;
;
, .



, ,
.
.
- : , ?
, , ,
..?
,
, ,
?

,
. ,
-
-
-.
-. ,
, - -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 183

07.09.2004 20:06:16

184


. ,
.
, , ,
: ,
, -, .
- 1990 Daimler-Benz Chrysler . Chrysler
.
,
. Daimler , . , ,
, - . ,
Chrysler Daimler
, Chrysler
.
IBM Rolm 1984 .
Rolm ,
IBM. Rolm -
. 1987 . IBM . Rolm , ,
Rolm. , , , 18%, , 10%. IBM Rolm
. , 2000 ., , DaimlerChrysler,
,
, .
, ,
, .
, Cisco Systems .
,
, . 19931997 .
, , ,
, .
Cisco

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 184

07.09.2004 20:06:16

8.

185

, .

. Cisco -

StrataCom 1996 . Cisco
. StrataCom, , Cisco,
Cisco8.
Johnson & Johnson
.
,
,
, .
1 . .
Lucent Technologies Nortel ,
,
. Ascend Communications Bay Networks
, ( Cisco
Systems)
.


,
. :
, ,
, .
, , . , 1970- 1980- Toyota
,
, . General Motors
60 . . ,
.
General Motors , . ,

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 185

07.09.2004 20:06:16

186

, ,
, .
, .
-, ,
.
, .
, - ,
,
. ,
.
9.
, ,
, ,
, .
,
,
. ,
. , .
,
,
. , , , -, , .
, ,
. ,
, . ,
,
. ,
,
.
, .
. , , .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 186

07.09.2004 20:06:16

8.

187



, .


? ,

. ,

. ,
,
.

, ,
, .
? , .
, , ,
, . ,

.
,
,
,
.
. ,

, . , , ,
, .
.
. 8.1 (. . )
, , , . ,

, ,
. (

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 187

07.09.2004 20:06:17

188


8.1


(
)


(
)

: , ,
.
.
.

), . ,
,
10.
,
.
, , ,
, , . , .
, , , :
, , ,
.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 188

07.09.2004 20:06:17

8.

189

. , .
. 8.1 ,

. (
),
,
,
. ,
( ), . .
, .
, :
,
. , . Chrysler, Eli Lilly Medtronic
11. , IBM
,
50%.
Microsoft -
A .
, ,
Microsoft .
. , - .
, .
, ,
.
.
, , .
,
. ,
, ,
, -

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 189

07.09.2004 20:06:17

190

. , 1999 . Compaq Computer , Dell


Computer. ,
Compaq .
- . ,
, .
Wal-Mart
,
Wal-Mart. . 8.1 (. . ) , .
,
.
. . Wal-Mart,
. .
D - , , - . , , Sams
Clubs Wal-Mart. , , ,
.
,
. . : , ,
, . ,
1990- , ,
.
, , .
. ,
, . ,
Dell Computer , .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 190

07.09.2004 20:06:17

8.

191

, - .
Compaq, Hewlett-Packard IBM . .
, Ameritrade Charles Schwab,
. , .
, Merrill Lynch, .

- , , , .
, ,
, , , . , ,
. ,
, ?
? , . . , ,
, .
, , , .
,
.

.: .. Prahalad, Gary Hamel. The Core Competence of the Corporation // Harvard


Business Review, 1990.
, 19931999 .

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 191

07.09.2004 20:06:17

192

5
6

10

11

, , , , , ,
.
: David
Garvin. The Processes of Organization and Management // Sloan Management Review,
1998, Summer.
.
.: Dorothy Leonard-Barton. Core Capabilities and Core Rigidities , ,
, .
.: Wickham Skinner. The Focused Factory // Harvard Business Review, 1974.
., : Thomas Peters, Robert Waterman. In Search of Excellence. New York:
Harper & Row Publishers, 1982.
.: Edgar Schein. Organizational Culture and Leadership. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass
Publishers, 1988.
.
.: Nicole Tempest. Cisco Systems, Inc. Post-Acquisition Manufacturing Integration.
teaching case published jointly by the Stanford University Graduate School of
Business and the Harvard Business School, 1998.
.: Steven C. Wheelwright, Kim B. Clark. Revolutionizing Product Development.
New York: The Free Press, 1992.
.: Iidem. Organizing and Leading Heavyweight Development Teams // California
Management Review (34), 1992, Spring, pp. 928.
.
, . , .
,
, ,
. ,
,
, .
, , .
.: Jeff Dyer. How Chrysler Created an American Keiretsu // Harvard Business
Review, 1996, July August, pp. 4256; Clayton M. Christensen. Weve Got Rhythm!
Medtronic Corporations Cardiac Pacemaker Business. Harvard Business School, Case
No 698-004; Steven C. Wheelwright. Eli Lilly: The Evista Project. Harvard Business
School, Case No 699-016.

_-2_Ch 05-08.indd 192

07.09.2004 20:06:17

, , ,
.
, .
,
.
,
. ,
,
(
- ). ,
. , , .
,
, , .

,
.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 193

07.09.2004 20:07:03

194



. 9.1, . 1.7 (. . ). , 1988 .
3,5-
,
5,25- 300%.
,
: (5,25- 3,5-)
.
? 3,5- . . 9.2
( . ) , .
1985 . 0,007, 3,5
1% (0,0069) . 1987 . 0,20, ,
16,7% 3,5- . 1989 . 1,5, 3,5- 60%.
3,5-
?
:
( )
. . ,
3,5- ,
20% ,
. ,
. ?
. ,
, ,
. ,
( 9.1), .
19861988 .
. 3,5-
. ,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 194

07.09.2004 20:07:03

9. ,

195

9.1

()

1000

100

-
,25

3,5

10

1
79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

: Disk/Trend Report.

IBM XT/AT
PS1/PS2.
- , , 3,5-
. , , 1986 . ( )
4,72 .
, . 1989 . 0,06 .
1 3.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 195

07.09.2004 20:07:04

196


9.2

8-, 5,25- 3,5-


30100
100
8-
10

5,25-

0,1

3,5-
0,01

0,001
80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

: Disk/Trend Report.

, , .
, ,
: , .
. 9.3 ,
: . .
, , .
- , ,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 196

07.09.2004 20:07:04

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 197

2:

1:

3:

9.3

4:

9. ,
197

07.09.2004 20:07:04

198

.

1, 100
. ,
,
12%.



.
5,25- 1988 .
, . 3,5-
. , 5,25-
, 8- .
,
.

,
, ,
.
,
,
: , . , , ? - .
, .




2.
,
, .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 198

07.09.2004 20:07:04

9. ,

199

, , Windermere Associates - ()
.
: , , . ,

, ,
, . (,
, .) ,
.
,
, .
( ) , , .
, . ,
,
. , , , .
.
,
3, , , . ,
,
. .
, .
,
, ,
. , .
. , ,
- .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 199

07.09.2004 20:07:04

200



.
,
.



. , , , -
,
. -, , ,
, , , . ,
, .
, , .

1.

. , ,
, , -
,
.
, , ,
,
. Conner
Peripherals ,
, J. C. Bamford J. I. Case
, ;
. Nucor ,
, .
, , -
,
,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 200

07.09.2004 20:07:04

9. ,

201

. , Seagate
3,5-
IBM , ,
. Bucyrus Erie 1951 .
Hydrohoe, , -, ,
, :
,
. Hydrohoe ,
, , , .
U.S. Steel ,
: , ,
. , .
, , ,
, : , , . , ,
, ,
: , ,
4.
,
. - , ,
, , , , , ,
. ,
, , ,
, .

2. , ,

, ,
( ),
, , . , ,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 201

07.09.2004 20:07:04

202


.
,
1,53 3 ( ),
, .
, .

, ,
,
.
Hewlett-Packard 1,3- Kittyhawk.
-
, Kittyhawk
. .
10
, HP . Apple ,
Newton, .



Intuit
Quicken . Quicken
. ,
Quicken , , .
,
, , , (
) .
,
,
5.
, Intuit 70% 6.
,
Quickbooks, .
-,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 202

07.09.2004 20:07:04

9. ,

203

.
(, , , ..)
( ). -,
,
,

. -, 85% ,
. ,
, , . , , .
Intuit , ,
, . , ,


, ,
,
. Intuit Quickbooks
70% 7. 1995 . Quickbooks Intuit
, Quicken.
Intuit : ,
,
.
,
1992 . 30% ,
, .
, .



, (
), . 1922 .

.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 203

07.09.2004 20:07:04

204

,
. 50 000 / 1925 . 10 000 /
1950 . 10 / 1980 . Eli Lilly.
, -
. 1978 . Eli Lilly
Genentech
, , 100- .
, 1980-
, 1 . ., Lilly
Humulin. 25% .
, .

. Lilly ,
,
Humulin .
, Lilly,
.
8. Lilly
, .
, ,
, .
Novo, , - .
, ,
, , ,
,
. ,

. ,
( ),
.
.
Novo - . Novo,
,
. 10 .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 204

07.09.2004 20:07:05

9. ,

205

Lilly Humulin, Novo


30- - . 1980- Novo ( )
. Lilly Novo ,
, ,
, , ,
.

, Lilly . .
, Lilly ,
:
10 / Humulin
. , , Lilly ,
-
, .

: , . ,
, , Lilly
? , ,
, . ? ,
.
Lilly , ? ,

,
.
, ,
,
. 50
, , . . ,
.
.
,
, ?9

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 205

07.09.2004 20:07:05

206


. 9.4.
, ,
.
.
Windermere Associates , , , , , (
, ). , ,
- .
,

- .
.
9.4


:
,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 206

07.09.2004 20:07:05

9. ,

207

,

, .

,
. , ,
. , , ( , Dell Gateway 2000).
. Compaq , . ,
,
.
, .
, ,
, ( ) ,
, .
, Microsoft, Intel

. Microsoft,
, ,
. ,
,
. . 9.5,
. (
1.7, 1996 .) ,
, 1990- ,
3,5- 2,5-
.
. - 2,5-
, . 3,5-
, 1,8-
-

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 207

07.09.2004 20:07:05

208


9.5



10 000

1000

1,8

2,5

3,5

55,2

8
10

100

()

14

1
75

80

85

90

95

: Clayton M. Christensen. The Rigid Disk Drive Industry: A History of Commercial and Technological Turbulence // Business
History Review 67, No 4 (Winter 1993), p. 559. .

. , , Seagate IBM.
, -
.
, Microsoft, Intel
Seagate ,
. ,
Microsoft 1987 . 1.2 Excel -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 208

07.09.2004 20:07:05

9. ,

209

1,2 . 5.0 1995 . 32 .


, , , .
, ,
-, .


, 9.4 (. ), ?
, - . , ,
. Hewlett-Packard .
, ,
HP .
Compaq Computer, Intel, Microsoft
( , ) .
, -, ( ),
,
. ,
, ,
. ,
, .

1 000 000
,
,
.
, : Jay W. Forrester.
Industrial Dynamics // Harvard Business Review, 1958, July August, pp. 914;
Arch Patron. Stretch Your Products Earning Years Top Managements Stake in the
Product Life Cycle // Management Review (38), 1959, June, pp. 6779; William E.
Cox. Product Life Cycles as Marketing Models // Journal of Business (40), 1967,
October, p. 375. ,
, , , :

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 209

07.09.2004 20:07:05

210

3
4

Nariman K. Dhalla, Sonia Yuspeh. Forget the Product Life Cycle Concept! // Harvard
Business Review, 1976, January February, pp. 102112; David R. Rink, John E.
Swan. Product Life Cycle Research: A Literature Review // Journal of Business Research,
1979, p. 219; George S. Day. // The Product Life Cycle: Analysis and Applications
Issues // Journal of Marketing (45), 1981, Fall, pp. 6067. Gerard J. Tellis,
C. Merle Crawford. An Evolutionary Approach to Product Growth Theory (Journal
of Marketing (45), 1981, Fall, pp. 125132)
, , .
. Geoffrey A. Moore. Crossing the Chasm. New York: HarperBusiness, 1991.

. 1950- Sony
- ,
AT&T, 1947 . AT&T ,
, . AT&T . , , AT&T , Sony . , .
? AT&T.
, . Sony
.

.
,
.
, ,
(
), , ,
, .
,
,
. ( ,
- Sony .)
.: John Case. Customer Service: The Last Word // Inc. Magazine, 1991, April, pp.
15.

(Scott Cook), Intuit,
Quickbooks (Jay OConnor).
,
Intuit .
,
, - -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 210

07.09.2004 20:07:05

9. ,

211

,
. Intuit , .
. : Eli Lilly & Co.: Innovation in Diabetes Care // Harvard Business School, Case
No. 9-696-077. , , Lilly Humulin, . Humulin
Lilly (
- ). ,
.
,
, ,
,
. , Intel . ,
, , , . , , 200, 400
800 . ? , Intel ?
, Intel
? , - , .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 211

07.09.2004 20:07:05

10


:

, ,
. ,
, , ,
, .
,
, . , , ,
.
, .
, . :
,
, , . ,
,
, ,
.


1900-
, .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 212

07.09.2004 20:07:05

10. :

213

1970- :
,
.
1990- , 1998 . , , , 2%
1.

.
. ? , ,
,
? ?
, .
, ,
1.7 (. . ) 9.5 (. . ).
.
. ,
, ,
: ,
-2.
, ,
(,
) 125150 (200240 ).
5080
(80130 ). ,
0 60 / 10 (
); 20 . ,
,

3. ,
, .
, . , , ,
- -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 213

07.09.2004 20:07:06

214

. ,
.
, , ;
,
.
. 10.1 , , ,
, .
,
, - ,
1% 4. (24% ),
,
, , 5.
,
, ,
, .
, ,
.
, , , .
, Ford : Ranger - , 50 ,
30 000 . 1998 ,
,
, , 6.
,
, 1980 . 5,25-
.
:
- ( , ). ,
, ,
, . , . -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 214

07.09.2004 20:07:06

10. :

215

10.1


80

60

40
20
0
70

80

90

2000

90

2000


120

100
80

60
40
20
0
70

80

0 60 /
50

40

30

20
10

0
70

80

90

2000

: . , W. Alton Jones Foundation, .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 215

07.09.2004 20:07:06

216

,
, .
( ), ,
. ? ,
. ,
,
,
.


,
,
, , . ,
.
-, ,
,
.
, , -
, :
, .
, .
,

. , ,
, , , ,
7.
, , ,
, , . ,
, , ,
. , , ,
.
.
, , -
,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 216

07.09.2004 20:07:06

10. :

217

. 5,25-
- , . - ,
.
, ,
,

100 .
,
, , ,
.
, : . , , , ,
( , Honda
Supercub ).
, , , , 8. ,
, , , , .
, - , .
, ,
- . ,
, 9.
- , Apple
Newton Hewlett-Packard Kittyhawk.
, .

.

:
? :
, .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 217

07.09.2004 20:07:06

218

, , ,
, 10.
,

. , , . Honda ...

, ,
- .
,
(
) 30 /.
.

,
.



,

. Chrysler , 1995 . , 1998 .11
Chrysler 1998 .
, ,
. , ,
,
, ,
. .
, ,
12.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 218

07.09.2004 20:07:06

10. :

219

, Chrysler
1600 ( 720 ) . ,
, .
Chrysler , ,
.
100 000 . ( 22 000 . )
Chrysler.
,

, . ,
:
, ,
.
-
. ,
.
.
, , 13.

, ,
Chrysler 14.
.

,



: , , , .
? , - ,
.
, ,
, - ,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 219

07.09.2004 20:07:06

220

. ,
, ,
.
-,
.
, 0 60 / .
, ,
,
. 30 :
, , , .
, Toyota Corona . ,
, ,
Toyota ,
Camry, Previa Lexus.
, , Saturn
Hyundai. Saturn : ,
,
, , 15, ,
.
, , , ,
, .
,
. , .
, ,
, - -16.
,
.
-, , .
, ,
.
-, ,
,
, , . , , ,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 220

07.09.2004 20:07:06

10. :

221

, ..,
, .
, ,
, .
, , ,
17.
-, . , , ,
.

;
, . , . ,
. , ,
.
,
.


,
.
, : , .
, , , . , .
Ford :
, .
, ,
, . , 1998 ,
100 .
. ,
.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 221

07.09.2004 20:07:07

222

(, U.S.
Advanced Battery)
( , ,
, ..)18.

Chrysler :
-
, , .

. , 19.
, , , ,
. Chrysler
, Ford Ranger.
, . ,

. , ,
, , .
? , .
, 150- , - , ,
,

20. , , , ,

,
,
.


, (, , )
. Sony
, -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 222

07.09.2004 20:07:07

10. :

223

( ) .
.
Honda, . HarleyDavidson - : Harley
.
.
(
Kresge Woolworth).
; ,
, , . ,

.
,

. , ,

.



, , ,
, ,
. ,

,
.


,

, , . Quantum, Control Data, IBM PC Division,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 223

07.09.2004 20:07:07

224

Allen Bradley Hewlett-Packard, , , ,


,
.
,

- ( Saturn General Motors IBM), ,
.
,
.

, , , , .

. ,
- , ,
.
, , , , .
,
, , .
, .
.
, . ,
, ,
,
.
,
,
, . ,
,
. , ,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 224

07.09.2004 20:07:07

10. :

225

, , , ,
, .
:
, , , ,
. .
. ,
, . ,

, .
:
.
, ,
, (
) .
, .
:
.
, ,
. , (
). ,
- , - - , .
, ,
.
, , ,
.
. ,
21. ,
, , .
,
, ,
. -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 225

07.09.2004 20:07:07

226

,
- . , , .
,
, , .

1996 . 2002 .
, ,
, ,
.
: Dorothy LeonardBarton. Wellsprings of Knowledge. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1995.
, 1994 .
Dohring Toyota Motor Sales (CARB Workshop on Electric Vehicle
Consumer Marketability) - () 28 1995 .
,
W. Alton Jones Foundation (, ),
: Frank Keith, Paul Norton, Dana
Sue Potestio. Electric Vehicles: Promise and Reality. California State Legislative Report
[19], 1994, No 10, July,; W. P. Egan. Electric Cars. Canberra, Australia: Bureau of
Transport Economics, 1974; Daniel Sperling. Future Drive: Electric Vehicles and
Sustainable Transportation. Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1995; William Hamilton.
Electric Automobiles. New York: McGraw Hill Company, 1980.
. 10.1,
, , . ,
, .
. ,
,
.
, , , , 2015 ., 2020 . ,
( )
, ,
, ,
.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 226

07.09.2004 20:07:07

10. :
6

10

11

227

. ,
Ford Motor, CARB Workshop on Electric Vehicle Consumer Marketability
(-, , 28 1995 .).
, , . : , Bucyrus Erie
Hydrohoe
; HarleyDavidson ;
Chrysler .

IBM (RISC). IBM,
RISC- .
IBM , , RISC ,
, . RISC, ,
IBM RISC- MIPS RISC- Hewlett-Packard.
,
( ),
. IBM , , . , IBM
RISC-, . .: Charles Ferguson,
Charles Morris. Computer Wars. New York: Time Books, 1994.
.: Gary Hamel, . . Prahalad. Corporate Imagination and Expeditionary Marketing // Harvard Business Review, 1991, July August, pp. 8192.
, ,
.
, -
, , : Rita G. McGrath, Ian MacMillan. Discovery-Driven Planning.
.: Jeffrey Thoresen Severts. Managing Innovation: Electric Vehicle Development at
Chrysler // Harvard Business School MBA student paper, 1996.
(Clayton Christensen), .

, 1998 . ,
, -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 227

07.09.2004 20:07:07

228

12

13
14

15

16

17

18
19
20

21

,
2%. , 1996 . 2002 .
,
Chrysler, CARB Workshop on Electric Vehicle Consumer
Marketability (-, , 28 1995 .); . . 5 .
.
,
Chrysler; . , , General Motors,
100 . .: Jeffrey Thoresen Severts. Managing Innovation: Electric
Vehicle Development at Chrysler.
., : Gabriella Stern, Rebecca Blumenstein. GM Is Expected to Back Proposal
for Midsize Version of Saturn Car // The Wall Street Journal, 1996, May 24, p. B4.
, , ,
: , , , , ,
. ,
.
, , ,
. . .
. CARB.
CARB.
.: Ralph E. Gomory. From the Ladder of Science to the Product Development
Cycle // Harvard Business Review, 1989, November December, 99105; Lowell
Steele. Managers Misconceptions About Technology // Harvard Business Review, 1983,
pp. 733740.
:
, ,

,
; ., : Marco Iansiti. Technology Integration: Managing
Technological Evolution in a Complex Environment // Research Policy, 1995, No 24,
pp. 521542.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 228

07.09.2004 20:07:07

11

, , :
, . , ,
, , , .
, .
,
, ,
.
,
, , .
,
. ,
, .
, .
: ,
, ,
, .
, , .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 229

07.09.2004 20:07:08

230

-, ,
,
. , ,
( ), .
, , , . ,
, , .
,
.
-, : , ,
, , (
) ,
.
- .
,
, . , . , .
, , , ,
.
-, , .
,
, , , .
,
. ,
, (, , , ), . , ,
, .
, .
-,
, . , . ,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 230

07.09.2004 20:07:08

11. :

231


, . ,
,
. .
. , ,
.

, ,
,
. , , .
-, , .
, ,
. ,
. ,
. ,
,
.

, .
, , ,
, , , ,
.
-,
, .
.
, .
. ,
, ,
, , , .
- ( ), ,
, .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 231

07.09.2004 20:07:08

232

.
, ,
1. ,
, , . ,
, . , , ,
, - , .
,
,
, .
. , - , .
. ,
, ,
, , ,
. ,
.

, , ,
, ,
, ,
, /
..
: Joseph Bain. Barriers to New Competition. Cambridge,
MA: Harvard University Press, 1956; . : Richard Caves, Michael Porter. From
Entry Barriers to Mobility Barriers // Quarterly Journal of Economics (91), 1977, May,
pp. 241261.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 232

07.09.2004 20:07:08


,
, ,
.


: ?
, , ,
, .
, , .
, :
;
, ,
;
;
, .
.
, , , -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 233

07.09.2004 20:07:08

234

. , .
, ( , ) .
, ,
. . ,
,
. ,
-
.
, , ,
.
, , , , , . ,
, ,
,
.


1. ,
.
,
, .
,
.
,
. , .
2.
.

,
. ,
.

. ,
, .

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 234

07.09.2004 20:07:08

235

, .
3. .
, . ,
,
,
.
4. .

, . ,
,
,
, ,
, . ,
.
, , , .

,
. ,
, ,
. ,
,
. , ,
.
, ,
.
1. , ,
.
2. , ,
.

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 235

07.09.2004 20:07:08

236

3. . ,
.
. .
4. . ,
. . , , ,
, .


1. :
, ;
;
;

.
, ,
.
, , , , ,
?

2. ,
.
,
? ? ?
3. ,
, .
,
?
4. , ,
, ? ,

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 236

07.09.2004 20:07:08

237

,
,
, ,
?
5. ,
,
, , .
,
,
.
, , ?
?
6.
, .
Windermere Associates , , , ,
. ,
.
7. , , , .
. ,
.

? ?
8. ?
,
?
9. ? ,
,
( )? , ,
, , -

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 237

07.09.2004 20:07:08

238

,
- ?
?
10. , . ,
1,8- , :
.
1,8- , . ,
,
. ,
? , ,
, ?
11. , .
,
, .
,
,
?
12. ,
, ,
. ,
,
. , ? ,
,

? ?

_-2_Ch 09-11.indd 238

07.09.2004 20:07:08

238

,
- ?
?
10. , . ,
1,8- , :
.
1,8- , . ,
,
. ,
? , ,
, ?
11. , .
,
, .
,
,
?
12. ,
, ,
. ,
,
. , ? ,
,

? ?

.
.
.
.

09.09.2004. 701001/16.
1. .
15 . . 5000 .


123060 , / 28
. (095) 105-77-16
www.alpina.ru
e-mail: info@alpina.ru

1997 -.
The Financial Times/Booz Allen & Hamilton

.

.
, .
. ,
Bloomberg Financial Markets

.
.
.
. , McKinsey & Company

,
.
, .
- . ,
Intel Corporation

... ...
...
,
.
, Guilder Technology Report

Вам также может понравиться