1. .

2. .
3. .
3.1. .
3.2. .
3.3. - .
3.4. .
3.5. .
3.6. . .
3.7. .
3.8. , .
4. .
4.1. .
4.2. .
4.3. .
4.4. .
5. .
6. .
1

1.
1) .
x x; , x.
; , , : x
x .
2) .
,
. : ( , ..),
( , ) , , .
.
0.05 4. 0.5
100 , 0.5% , .. 0.5 . , , (, 0.1 ). . ,

, 0.25 .

.

. . ,
,
, . ,
, .
.
, .. , .

 ,
.

2.
x ,
; .
, .
, , , . , , .
, ( ) Y x1 , x2 , x3 , . . .
:

n
X

Y =
x xi ,
i
i=1

(1)

Y (x1 , x2 , x3 , . . . , xn ) , () x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ;
xi ( ) xi .
Y
xi .
xi
, x
:

Y
Y =
x

x dY

dx

x,

(2)

dY

.
dx
:

Y
x1 + Y x2
Y =

x1
x2

..

(3)

 1.
.
r
k
, =
= Y (k, m), k
m
, m . (3):
s
s
0
0
s

k
k
k
k m
1
k +
m =
=
+
,

m
m
2 km 2 m m

k
; m ; k m
. ,

( k = 3, 333, k = 0, 0005).
2.
Y = x1 + x2 + . . . + xn =
:

n
P
i=1

xi , n
P

xi
Y
x1 + x2 + + xn
i=1
=
= P
n
Y
x1 + x2 + + xn
xi

(4.1)

i=1

Y = x1 x2 . . . xn

Y =

x1
x2

Y
x1 x2
xn
=
+
+ +
Y
x1
x2
xn

(4.2)

Y
x1 x2
=
+
Y
x1
x2

(4.3)

3.
, , . .
3.1.
,
. A
P (A), . , 0 P (A) 1 , .
.
.
m
=

n
m A n ; .
> 0 P ,
n | P | < . P A; ,
A n :
lim = P

3.2.
, . . , 1
, , 1
6
5

 6. . ,
(
).

.
, , ; .
:
(xx0 )2
1
(x) = e 22
2

(5)

x ; x0 ; ; 2 ;
e = 2, 71928 .
. 1 (x)
. , x0 .

r(x)
x0 = 1, F = 0,09

x0 = 1, F = 0,18
x0 = 1, F = 0,3

x
. 1.
6

 ,
x0 n :
x1 + x2 + + xn
,
(6)
n
xi i- x.
(n),
, ..
xn =

lim xn = x0

, 4.
3.3. -
, .
, ,
. , , (x),
x0 . , . :
, .
n. , ,
, x x; - ():
s

Sn =

(x x1 )2 + (x x2 )2 + + (x xn )2
=
n1

v
uP
u n
u (x xi )2
t i=1

n1
7

(7)

, , - :
lim Sn =

n, :
Sn

(8)

, Sn .
3.4. .
(x) x dx. , (x)dx
x dx. P
x0 x x x0 + x

(9)

x (x x0 ) x

(x); (. 2):

dx

r(x)

x0) x

x0

. 2.
8

x 0 +) x

(x0 x) x (x0 + x)
x (x x0 ) x

x0Z+x

(x)dx = (10)
=

x0 x

(x x) x0 (x + x)
. , , ,
x. x . :
(
), x
.
x (5) .
1:

0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8

0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.24
0.31
0.38
0.45
0.51
0.57

0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9

0.63
0.68
0.73
0.77
0.80
0.84
0.87
0.89
0.91
0.93
0.94

2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0

0.95
0.964
0.972
0.978
0.984
0.988
0.990
0.993
0.995
0.996
0.997

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0

0.9981
0.9986
0.9990
0.9993
0.9995
0.9997
0.9998
0.99986
0.99990
0.99993

x
=
.
1,
; , -
Sn ; . .
: x, . , , x = ( = 1), 0.68;
x = 2
x = 3

= 0.95
= 0.997

, ,
(). .
2: , x. , ( , , .)
. , .
3.5.
z
z = x y,
x, y
- Sn Sy ,
- z :
Sz2 = Sx2 + Sy2

10

(11)

 N Xi :
Sz2 =

N
X

2
SX
i

(11.1)

i=1

, X Y
Sx
- Sx Sy =
. (11)
2
Sz 1.1 Sx
,
, .

.
x1 , x2 , . . . , xn
( ) Sn . x1 x2
xn
x =
+ + +
.
n
n
n
(11.1):

Sx2

Sn
n

Sn
n

+ +

Sn
Sx =
n

Sn
n

Sn2
n
(12)

,
, .
3.6. .
x , : x0
n . ,
n , :

11

|x0 x|
x
=
n t,n
Sx
Sn

(13)

t,n ,
( ) n.
t,n

,
x
, , .
(5) , , n.
, n. n 2 ( , 2)

; x

t,n (13).
, n t,n
: , =0.7 n
t0.7,n 1.0;
=0.95 t0.95,n 2.0 ( :
=0.68 =1.0, =0.95, =2.0). ,
n Sn . n
t,n .
, t,n
x:
Sn
Sn
x = t,n >
n
n

(14)

, (10) :
Sn
Sn
P (x t,n < x0 < x + t,n ) =
n
n

(15)

, x0 Sn
Sn
(x t,n , x + t,n ). n
n
12


Sn
x = t,n .
n
. ,
Wo + We
:

1
2
3
4
5
6

30
27
25
18
16
23

7
8
9
10
11
12

24
27
29
33
35
37

13
14
15
16
17
18

39
41
43
44
45
43

:
n = 18
x = 32.17 .
Sn =9.17 .
: Wo + We = const.

= 0.95 ?
:
(14), Sn = 9.17, n = 18, t0.95,18 = 2.1 ( . 2):
9.17
x = 2.1 = 4.54 .
18
x

= 0.14 = 14%.
x
: = 0.95 14%.

13

3.7.
, .
. n .

. ,
, (x) , 3 , 0.003. , x
( ) , . ,
, .
, .
-, , . -,
(0.1, 0.01), ,
. > 0.1
, < 0.01 .
3.8.
.
()
, -
Sn
( x = t,n ) ,
n
x. x. .
X

S
n 2
n

= 0.95

: 2.

14

(16)

 , ..
4Sn2 2 ,

(17)

. ,
().
, ,
:
= 1 2 n ,

(18)

: 1 , 2 , . . . -
.
, ,
1.
4.
4.1.
,
n 10 30 %. , ,
3:
x = 0.357
( x)
= 0.3 0.357
= 0.11
, ; : x = 0.357 0.4 0.1 .
x 3 , :
x = 0.226
15

 ( x)
= 0.3 0.226 = 0.07
x 0.23 0.07
.
4.2.
. , , , .
, . :
,
(.. 10 ) .
4.3. ( y)
1. .
2. -: x1 , x2 , . . . ; Sn1 , Sn2 , . . . .
3. x1 , x2 , . . .
:
Sn
(19)
xi = t0.95, ni i
ni
: = 0.95; , , = 0.98;
ni - .
.
4.
(16):
i =

i 2 + xi 2

(20)

: i - xi . .
16

5. ( 1 4) y ; x1 , x1 , . . .
1 , 2 , . . . (20).
, n > 10,
n < 10.
6. xi
y . , ()
y.
y
7.
.
y
8. :
y = y y
= 1 2 . . .
9. N , - :
v
uN
u X (y yk )2
k
t
SN
N

1
k=1
: yk y k- ,
N ; yk k- .
10.
SN
y
y = t0.95,N

.
y
N
0.95.
4.4.

( ) (y)

y
17

 ; :
y - ; ( y) .
( y) :
-
, , .
, (20 30)
( ). ( )
0,95.
n = 20, t0.95, 20 = 2.1;
S20
i = 2.1 (. (19)), S20 -
20
( (7)).
, . S20 20
. ( y)
i ,
(. 3).

i
) ()y)
)i

)()y)

. 3.
, ,
, yk ; , ..
18

 ( ) . (k 1) , k
. ,
( y)
,
yk = (k 1) y,
yk
y ,
.


0.95.
5.
1. .
2. .
3. , .
4. .
5. - .
6. ?
?
7. , ?
8. .
9. . . .
10. , ?
11. .
12. . . , , , .
13. . .

19

6.
1. . .. . , 10. 2001. . 9.
2. A.. . .
1968 .

20