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2007 .) [1] , (National Energy
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Copyright & A K-C

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Copyright & A K-C

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EIA 1998 ., , 2000
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.

1. Gately, D., How Plausible is the Consensus Projection of Oil Below

$25 and Persian Gulf Oil Capacity and Output Doubling by 2020?
The Energy Journal. Vol. 22, No. 4, 2001; Gately, D. What Oil Exports
Should we Expect from OPEC? The Energy Journal, Vol. 28, No. 2,
2007.
2. Winebrake, J., Sakva, D., An Evaluation of Errors in the U.S.
Energy Forecasts: 19822003, Energy Policy, Vol. 34, pp. 34753483,
2005.

54

3. Each year the EIA publishes the Annual Energy Outlook AEO. The
data used in this analysis are drawn from the AEO publications from
19982000. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy
Outlook, Washington, D.C. yearly.
4. Rivlin, P., The Oil Market, Strategic Assessment, Vol. 3, No. 3,
2003.
5. Franssen, H., Long Term Oil Market Outlook, OPEC Review,
pp. 203213, Sept., 2003.
6. Laitner, J., DeCanio, S., Kooney, J., Sanstad, A. Room for
Improvement, Utilities Policy, Vol. 11, No. 203: pp. 8794.
7. Sweeney, M., More Attention Needs to be Focused on the CEC Fuel
Price Forecasts, paper presented at California Energy Commission
Workshop, October, 2006.
8. Pickup, S., Defense Budget: Review of DODs Report on Budget for
Fuel Costs, GAO report to U.S. Congress, April 26, 2007.
9. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (AEO),
U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Data were taken from
each AEO from 19982006.
10. Theil, H., Applied Economic Forecasting, Rand McNally and
Company, 1966.
11. Maddala, G.S., Econometrics, McGraw Hill, 1977.
12. For example, ONeill, B., Desai, M., Accuracy of past Predictions,
Energy Policy. Volume 33, pp. 979993, May 2005.
13. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (AEO),
U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Data were taken from
each AEO from 19982006.
14. Auffhammer, M. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under
Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss, Resource and Energy Economics,
Vol. 21; pp. 102121.
15. Koomey, J., Craig, P., Gadgil, A. and D. Lorengetti, Improving
LongRange Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical
Retrospectives,
The Energy Journal, Vol. 24, No. 4, 2003.
16. Energy Information Agency, Energy market and Economic
Impacts of a Proposal to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Intensity with a Cap
and Trade System, Washington, D.C., January 2007.

Frank Clemente (. ),
, , . .
, .

. 100 , Public Utilities
Fortnightly, Electrical World, Nuclear News, Electric Perspectives,
American Coal Journal of Commerce. .
Men and women of
Science 1979 . :
Frank Clemente, fac226@psu.edu.
Tim J. Considine (. ),
,
,
.
,
, ,
.
.
, The Energy Journal,
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, The Review of
Economics and Statistics, Resource and Energy Economics Energy
Economics.