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11

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12

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17

 1980- 1990- ,

.
(Hough, 1997, Fish, 1995, Urban, 1997). (Lapidus, 1989, Fish, 1995a)
(Keane, 1988, Linz and Stepan, 1996). 1990-
.
, ,
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) 1990- 3-10% (, 1998, Bahry and Way, 1994, McAllister
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(, 1993).
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18

(Duka et al., 1995, Zdravomyslova, 1996): . , , , 1992-1993
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. , (Gurr, 1970,
. , 1998),
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, 1998
).
( 19

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1990- 25-30% (McAllister and White, 1994,
, 1997),
3-4 . , , ,
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(, 1994). , ,
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, 1998: 149). , ,

(Almond and Verba, 1963: 118).

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65% , 1996
69%). , , ,
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. , 22

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1950-60-
, , (Harrop and
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(, ..). ,

(Campbell et al., 1960), , ,
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(Inglehart, 1990). , ,
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23

 , (Sergeev and Biryukov,

1993), , .
: 1) : vs. (
); 2) : vs. (Kitchelt, 1992, 1995). ,
-, , , . - - , .
(Wyman et al., 1998, , 1998, , 1996, Fish, 1995b), ,
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(, 1998).
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-
.

, , .
24

, ,
(Lipset and Rokkan, 1967). , , ,

. :
, ,
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, 100 -
8,5% (Bartolini and Mair, 1990).
, .. 55- : , ,

, , (Slider, Gimpelson
and Chugrov, 1994).

, , ,
(, 1996).
, ,
(, 1996: 39). , , ,
, ( , 1996). (Rokkan, 1970, Eisenstadt, 1978),
(Eisenstadt, 1992), ,
25

 , .
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1994). , , ( )
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) (Rose, Tikhomirov and Mishler,
1997). (, 1997)
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(, 1998: 131). , ,
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26

/ (Downs, 1957). (Fiorina, 1981),

, ()
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,


(, 1997). . , ,
: ,
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1993 1995 : ,
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:
27

 (
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Mishler, 1997, Wyman et al., 1998), ,
.
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.
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1996 ( ). , ,
(Rose and Tikhomirov, 1996, Mason
and Sidorenko-Stivenson, 1997, Wyman et al., 1998).
,
28

. ,
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,
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, (
) ,
:
(Shevchenko,
1999).
,
.
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: ,

, 29

 . -, ( , ) : 1993 1995
, ,
(, 1999). -, ,

:
1993

(Urban, 1994, Hughes, 1994).
,
, ( )
, (, 1998).
(Treisman, 1996, McFaul, 1997, Gelman and Elizarov,
1999),
. ,
: , , ,
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,
, . ,
, ,
.
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..

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1963).
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39

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attitude, . ,
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(attitudes)
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.

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40

) ( ) (Lillbacka, 1999:39-40)1.
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(, 1988: 306).

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(Inglehart, 1990:45) . ,
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. 1994 . 23,3% , 73,0%
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. , . 15 % , ,
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: . 1993. 4:42. 1995. 4:60. : 1993 ., = 1993, 1995 ., = 2550.

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, . 1993-1996 .
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: ., 1996:20. ,
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51


1996 .. , , ,
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29 1996 .6 1996 .

9-12 1996 . (

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26

: ., 1995: 21. , -1588

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, .

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1993-1996 . ,
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6), 1996 . . . ( 8,
. , 1996).
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, 1996:21).
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68

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75


. (1999). -
, . . (.)
: ? .: .

. . (1998). , . (.) .
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. (1996a). .
. , 3.

. (1994). :
.
,6.

. (1996b). ( ). .
, 5.

. . (1996).
? . , 5.

. (1998) : . , 1.

., . . (1996).
1995 . .
, 2.
. : - , . . (.) : ? .: .
. . .
. (1996).
. . , 3.
. . (1984). . . .: .
. (1995). , . (.)
. .: .
. . (1996). . , 1.
. . (1996). : , . , 4.
. (1996). :
. , 1996. 6.

76

(1996).
. M.: .
. (1999). (- ). .:
.
. (1999). : , , , . . (.) : ? .: .
(1999) . , 221 (368):3.
., . . (1998).
. . .: .
(1996). : . .,
.
-. .
. ( ) (http://www.fom.ru/other/dinam2/htm)
. (1998). - , . (.) . - . .: .
. (1996).
. , 10.
77

 . (1998) : . , 1.
. . (1994). . : , 2.
(1993). 1993 . (http://www.nns.ru/analytdoc/
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(1995). 1993-1995 . ( ) (http://www.nns.ru/analytdoc/elec95.html)
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. , ,
, . (Almond and
Powell, 1966)
1

., , Lane, 1992, Linz and Stepan, 1996 etc.

, , , -

( ,
1984: 238, . Harrop and Miller,1987: 118-121).

, ,
, , ,
.

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(Campbell et al., 1960)

80

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(, 1998; ,1996)

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. 1995 ., = 2017

10

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: 70 3.905 35 35.090.

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81

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83

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:
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, (),
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92

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,

[, 1996:33].

. , , ,
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!, 1990:290]:



, ,

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- , [Nkpa, 1975:30].
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,
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, . 1997 ? - . (5, .135-139).

1990 ! .: .

, .; , .; , . 1993
. - . (1, .82-88).

, .; , . 1959 . .: .

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. - C- . (4, .36-38).

, . 1996 . - . .: - -. .33-35.

, . 1991 : . . 3. .:
.

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. (1, .12-16).

104

, . 1992
. - . (12, . 10-14).
, . 1971 . - . .: . .146-148.
, . 1972 . .: .
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. .: .

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. (2, .3-14).
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105

1996

. .: - .

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, . 1990 . - . (14, .3).
1990b : . . .

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. .: .

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.

. .:

, . 1997 . - . (10, .50-55).

, . 1993

. .1. .: .

1995 : - . .: .
1995

. - . (61, .1).

, . 1993 : . .: .
, . 1974

: . .: .

, .-. 1992
, . 1970

. .

. .: .

Goldman, J. 1989 The challenge of democracy. N.Y.: White House Publishers.

Knapp, R. 1994
.22-24).

Psychology of Rumor. - Public Opinion Quarterly. (8,

Mayer, W. 1993 The Polls-poll Trends. Trends in Media Usage. - Public Opinion
Quarterly (Volume 57).
1994

Media Analysis. London: MacMillan.

Mendelson, M. 1994
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Leadership in the 1988 Canadian Election. - Canadian Journal of Political
Science (XXVII: March).
Nkpa, N. 1975 Rumor Mongering in War Time. - The Journal of Social
Psychology. (96).
106

.
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: : 1995:
, : , 1996; M1 M2: : , : , 1996; : : - , . 1., : ; : Richard
Sakwa, Russian Politics and Society, London and New York: Routledge, pp.
422-424.

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 .
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2, 1998, . 31-36.

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132

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Harrop, M. and Miller, W.Z. 1987. Electoral Behaviour and Voters. A
Comparative Introduction. Hampshire and London: MacMillian.
Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Rice, T.W. 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington:
Congressional Quarterly Inc.

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,
.

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, , , , , 1949 .
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. - , 1995, 3.

180

, ,
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,
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, .

35. , , .. . .., ,
: (.
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., 1997.

202

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206

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254

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281


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315



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