Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.996500244912
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.993012738109 99.3012738109429
R^2 ajustado 0.992631614734
Error típico 1.474338378254
Observaciones 59

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Promedio de
Grados de
Suma de cuadrados los
libertad
cuadrados
Regresión 3 16990.4479490523 5663.48265
Residuos 55 119.552050947669 2.17367365
Total 58 17110

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción 1847.131211892 4.33032936567248 426.556748

X1 76.5629677289 12.2282094986634 6.26117566
X2 82.30542967039 16.5307509769757 4.97892865
X3 -156.529074443 28.4277057455515 -5.50621552

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico Y Residuos Residuos estándares

1 2016.048389661 1.95161033910517 1.35934155
2 2014.802140323 2.19785967703501 1.53085988
3 2015.155213119 0.844786880688844 0.58841352
4 2013.977026561 1.02297343892133 0.71252456
5 2012.009817096 1.99018290401182 1.38620823
6 2011.607898375 1.3921016246768 0.96963084
7 2011.182586425 0.817413574906823 0.56934738
8 2010.757274475 0.242725525138667 0.16906392
9 2010.251144676 -0.251144675648902 -0.17492805
10 2008.92196058 0.078039420272035 0.05435625
11 2007.592776484 0.407223516187514 0.28364056
12 2007.005828836 -0.005828835617649 -0.00405992
13 2006.395487958 -0.395487957850492 -0.27546647
14 2004.196463106 0.803536893903583 0.55968195
15 2003.539335769 0.460664230804468 0.32086325
16 2002.035760906 0.964239093973447 0.67161474
17 2001.30845388 0.691546119578561 0.4816778
18 1999.792123948 1.20787605203623 0.84131349
19 1998.971244004 1.02875599590698 0.71655224
20 1998.126970831 0.873029169350048 0.60808492
21 1998.824595172 -0.824595172070985 -0.57434953
22 1997.087088013 -0.087088013224275 -0.06065881
23 1995.326187625 0.6738123751893 0.46932584
24 1995.849421199 -0.849421198976415 -0.59164143
25 1993.937523273 0.062476727121975 0.04351648
26 1994.28636608 -1.28636607979206 -0.8959836
27 1992.942313834 -0.942313834160814 -0.65634329
28 1991.551475129 -0.55147512939584 -0.38411513
29 1990.113849966 -0.113849965495319 -0.07929912
30 1991.041176613 -2.04117661315649 -1.42172652
31 1989.61418961 -1.61418960953597 -1.12432024
32 1988.244627225 -1.24462722532917 -0.86691153
33 1988.521173435 -2.52117343453392 -1.75605536
34 1987.289853519 -2.28985351872325 -1.59493571
35 1986.081926832 -2.0819268324849 -1.45010999
36 1984.131763699 -1.13176369852226 -0.78829948
37 1983.770284539 -1.77028453855201 -1.23304395
38 1983.408805379 -2.40880537858357 -1.67778842
39 1981.448004084 -1.44800408434276 -1.00856819
40 1980.333650316 -1.33365031637368 -0.92891816
41 1980.031712685 -2.03171268482765 -1.41513468
42 1978.164484309 -1.1644843088543 -0.81109014
43 1977.862546677 -1.86254667730827 -1.29730666
44 1975.206295394 -0.206295394480549 -0.14368949
45 1976.35268236 -2.35268235952208 -1.63869745
46 1974.228128458 -1.22812845830777 -0.85541976
47 1972.786269476 -0.786269476389862 -0.5476548
48 1970.42778328 0.572216720500364 0.39856212
49 1970.387462435 -0.387462435037378 -0.26987651
50 1968.747819456 0.252180543699069 0.17564956
51 1967.178356166 0.821643833733105 0.57229385
52 1965.749252254 1.25074774636141 0.87117461
53 1964.379689869 1.6203101305664 1.12858332
54 1963.184518252 1.81548174751788 1.26452485
55 1962.801762772 1.19823722804722 0.83459983
56 1960.830323317 2.16967668256802 1.51122978
57 1960.434812768 1.56518723238605 1.09018896
58 1957.638202107 3.36179789262042 2.34156966
59 1957.12572541 2.87427459027276 2.00199845
 X1 Gráfico de los residuales
4
2

Residuos
0
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
-2
-4
X1

Valor crítico
F
de F

2605.4889336 3.1257E-59
X3 Gráfico de los r
4
3
Superior Inferior Superior 2
Probabilidad Inferior 95% 95% 95,0% 95,0%

Residuos
1
1.727776E-98 1838.45304 1855.80939 1838.45304 1855.80939 0
6.071827E-08 52.0570883 101.068847 52.0570883 101.068847 -1 45 50 55 60
6.675757E-06 49.1770644 115.433795 49.1770644 115.433795 -2
9.950754E-07 -213.49947 -99.558679 -213.49947 -99.558679 -3
X3

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

X2 Curva de regresión ajusta
uos estándares Percentil Y
2040
0.84745763 1960
2020
2.54237288 1961
4.23728814 1962 2000
5.93220339 1963 1980
Y

7.62711864 1964 1960

9.3220339 1965
1940
11.0169492 1966
1920
12.7118644 1967
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 8
14.4067797 1968
X2
16.1016949 1969
17.7966102 1970
19.4915254 1971
21.1864407 1972
22.8813559 1973
Gráfico de probabilidad normal
24.5762712 1974 2040
26.2711864 1975 2020
2000
1980
Y

1960
1940
 Gráfico de probabilidad normal
2040
2020
2000
27.9661017 1976
1980
29.6610169 1977

Y
1960
31.3559322 1978 1940
33.0508475 1979 1920
34.7457627 1980 0 20 40 60 80 100
36.440678 1981 Muestra percentil
38.1355932 1982
39.8305085 1983
41.5254237 1984
43.220339 1985
44.9152542 1986
46.6101695 1987
48.3050847 1988
50 1989
51.6949153 1990
53.3898305 1991
55.0847458 1992
56.779661 1993
58.4745763 1994
60.1694915 1995
61.8644068 1996
63.559322 1997
65.2542373 1998
66.9491525 1999
68.6440678 2000
70.3389831 2001
72.0338983 2002
73.7288136 2003
75.4237288 2004
77.1186441 2005
78.8135593 2006
80.5084746 2007
82.2033898 2008
83.8983051 2009
85.5932203 2010
87.2881356 2011
88.9830508 2012
90.6779661 2013
92.3728814 2014
94.0677966 2015
95.7627119 2016
97.4576271 2017
99.1525424 2018
 X2 Gráfico de los residuales
4
3
2
Residuos

80 85 1
0
-1 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
-2
-3
X2

X3 Gráfico de los residuales X1 Curva de regresión ajustada

2040
2020
2000
1980 Y
Pronóstico Y
Y

50 55 60 65 70 75 80
1960
1940
1920
X3
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
X1

de regresión ajustada
X3 Curva de regresión ajustada
2040
2020
Y
2000
Pronóstico Y
1980 Y
Pronóstico Y
Y

1960
1940
60 65 70 75 80
1920
X2 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
X3

bilidad normal
bilidad normal

60 80 100 120
percentil
ón ajustada

Y
Pronóstico Y

75 80 85

ajustada

Y
Pronóstico Y

75 80
 Y X1 X2 X3
2018 1 79.28 73.83 76.52 1 1
2017 1 79.03 73.61 76.29 79.28 79.03
2016 1 78.76 73.39 76.04 73.83 73.61
2015 1 78.47 73.17 75.79 76.52 76.29
2014 1 78.16 72.94 75.53
2013 1 77.85 72.71 75.26 59 3923.93
2012 1 77.53 72.47 74.98 3923.93 265832.458
2011 1 77.21 72.23 74.7 3675.48 248964.803
2010 1 76.89 71.97 74.41 3798.46 257321.79
2009 1 76.57 71.7 74.12
2008 1 76.25 71.43 73.83 8.62675618 -22.10193
2007 1 75.93 71.15 73.53 -22.10193 68.7909656
2006 1 75.6 70.86 73.22 -30.994478 91.1895703
2005 1 75.26 70.56 72.91 52.6892556 -158.95715
2004 1 74.91 70.25 72.58
2003 1 74.55 69.92 72.24 1847.13124 X0
2002 1 74.17 69.58 71.88 76.562969 X1
2001 1 73.77 69.23 71.51 82.3054309 X2
2000 1 73.35 68.85 71.11 -156.52908 X3
1999 1 72.92 68.46 70.7
1998 1 72.48 68.06 70.27
1997 1 72.02 67.63 69.83
1996 1 71.55 67.19 69.38
1995 1 71.07 66.73 68.9
1994 1 70.57 66.24 68.41
1993 1 70.05 65.72 67.88
1992 1 69.51 65.16 67.33
1991 1 68.95 64.58 66.76
1990 1 68.37 63.98 66.17
1989 1 67.78 63.38 65.56
1988 1 67.17 62.77 64.95
1987 1 66.55 62.17 64.34
1986 1 65.93 61.59 63.73
1985 1 65.3 61.02 63.13
1984 1 64.68 60.46 62.54
1983 1 64.06 59.91 61.96
1982 1 63.45 59.37 61.38
1981 1 62.84 58.83 60.8
1980 1 62.25 58.29 60.24
1979 1 61.67 57.77 59.69
1978 1 61.12 57.27 59.16
1977 1 60.57 56.77 58.64
1976 1 60.02 56.27 58.11
1975 1 59.45 55.76 57.58
1974 1 58.85 55.21 56.99
1973 1 58.19 54.6 56.36
1972 1 57.47 53.94 55.67
1971 1 56.71 53.23 54.94
1970 1 55.92 52.5 54.17
1969 1 55.15 51.77 53.42
1968 1 54.41 51.07 52.7
1967 1 53.73 50.43 52.04
1966 1 53.11 49.83 51.43
1965 1 52.53 49.29 50.87
1964 1 51.98 48.77 50.33
1963 1 51.42 48.24 49.79
1962 1 50.83 47.7 49.22
1961 1 50.2 47.13 48.63
1960 1 49.56 46.54 48.01
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
78.76 78.47 78.16 77.85 77.53 77.21 76.89 76.57 76.25
73.39 73.17 72.94 72.71 72.47 72.23 71.97 71.7 71.43
76.04 75.79 75.53 75.26 74.98 74.7 74.41 74.12 73.83

3675.48 3798.46
248964.803 257321.79
233168.744 240994.837
240994.837 249083.968

-30.994478 52.6892556 117351

91.1895703 -158.95715 7813748.88
125.71608 -215.36616 7318932.86
-215.36616 371.782794 7563874.55
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
75.93 75.6 75.26 74.91 74.55 74.17 73.77 73.35 72.92 72.48 72.02 71.55 71.07 70.57 70.05 69.51
71.15 70.86 70.56 70.25 69.92 69.58 69.23 68.85 68.46 68.06 67.63 67.19 66.73 66.24 65.72 65.16
73.53 73.22 72.91 72.58 72.24 71.88 71.51 71.11 70.7 70.27 69.83 69.38 68.9 68.41 67.88 67.33
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
68.95 68.37 67.78 67.17 66.55 65.93 65.3 64.68 64.06 63.45 62.84 62.25 61.67 61.12 60.57 60.02 59.45 58.85
64.58 63.98 63.38 62.77 62.17 61.59 61.02 60.46 59.91 59.37 58.83 58.29 57.77 57.27 56.77 56.27 55.76 55.21
66.76 66.17 65.56 64.95 64.34 63.73 63.13 62.54 61.96 61.38 60.8 60.24 59.69 59.16 58.64 58.11 57.58 56.99
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
58.19 57.47 56.71 55.92 55.15 54.41 53.73 53.11 52.53 51.98 51.42 50.83 50.2 49.56
54.6 53.94 53.23 52.5 51.77 51.07 50.43 49.83 49.29 48.77 48.24 47.7 47.13 46.54
56.36 55.67 54.94 54.17 53.42 52.7 52.04 51.43 50.87 50.33 49.79 49.22 48.63 48.01