MODELOS Y SIMULACION

SHIRLEY LOPEZ FIGUEROA

ESTUDIANTE

Grupo 212026_68

NIDIA STELLA RINCON

TUTORA

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA UNAD

NOVIEMBRE DE 2020
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 Propiedades de los números aleatorios:
Deben tener igual probabilidad de salir elegidos.
No debe existir correlación serial.
Los números generados no se deben repetir frecuentemente (en ciclos)
Las series generadas deben ser reproducibles
Rapidez en la obtención de los números
Almacenamiento mínimo. Tanto el propio generador como los números por el generados. Los números
generados han de estar uniformemente distribuidos (todos deben tener la misma probabilidad de salir)
Los valores generados deben ser independientes unos de otros, es decir, que la obtención de cierto valor no est
condicionado por los valores obtenidos anteriormente (no correlacionado).
os. Los números
abilidad de salir)
ón de cierto valor no esté
 Establecer tres columnas de 200 números aleatorios aplicando un tratamiento según fórmula de Excel para co
graficar cada columna. Teniendo en cuenta para los correspondientes casos los siguientes datos: Media=50; De
1 a 50.

media 50 distribucion normal

desviacion estandar 5 media 50
rango 1 50 Des.vest 5
Datos 200

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Si edita esta forma o guarda el libro en un formato de archivo

diferente, el gráfico no se podrá utilizar.

1 43.61009691
2 55.61371847
3 50.04655694
4 38.44640304
5 52.20442971
6 54.54086795
7 49.16498618
8 55.32145742
9 45.03434691
10 52.04666105
11 56.13285872
12 51.824125
13 53.47880171
14 49.1098382
15 34.51893126
16 46.69151063
17 46.22032093
18 52.88788311
19 53.16082422
20 54.25690213
21 43.62977185
22 53.94433884
23 39.6022301
24 49.08181423
25 39.3029133
26 55.67892407
27 49.40766769
28 55.21456459
29 56.78962742
30 52.12846807
31 44.46527078
32 52.99850801
33 42.50056949
34 49.83317908
35 52.44956926
36 46.58829948
37 48.24059971
38 51.25207199
39 54.5547765
40 49.31225518
41 48.80549516
42 52.25523315
43 46.85241083
44 53.42528582
45 44.28007007
46 45.86687234
47 58.21436256
48 42.53516627
49 43.43404356
50 49.22702623
51 48.81770804
52 56.76717331
53 54.89254213
54 47.0795702
55 50.90625955
56 52.61047002
57 54.76965142
58 50.33741918
59 48.39924752
60 62.07602314
61 51.08445971
 62 47.5019046
63 54.54587105
64 50.97700828
65 54.55813773
66 48.39924752
67 55.15109851
68 45.63844167
69 47.80394896
70 48.07920031
71 43.40714385
72 47.88989157
73 53.81661995
74 42.4064986
75 56.13273681
76 57.08567104
77 50.1867083
78 50.2606527
79 48.81383054
80 51.84308533
81 50.72140531
82 51.99635914
83 47.18794213
84 49.54302501
85 47.56805285
86 49.05680427
87 43.28528442
88 49.86805023
89 50.44104709
90 48.74815095
91 53.54642144
92 49.00304089
93 58.19346235
94 61.15828485
95 49.33838645
96 47.03236972
97 46.66333728
98 57.02528875
99 48.36251058
100 48.87358078
101 55.52000438
102 50.32915964
103 52.2838643
104 40.90617981
105 56.31110572
106 55.5065096
107 50.42494831
108 54.35210129
109 57.05181484
110 49.44591585
111 49.0478742
112 52.34923829
113 63.61179182
114 50.5348755
115 52.16952949
116 50.06421138
117 49.06844568
118 54.86034044
119 49.73161122
120 56.01324054
121 53.21092818
122 50.39048306
123 45.5616698
124 46.65464634
125 38.81031422
126 57.0635073
127 42.13028975
128 45.88747788
129 57.87300759
130 47.57479614
131 47.28667615
132 48.69072626
133 48.00525448
134 44.86066757
135 46.59381949
136 51.48263915
137 49.97393861
138 46.94430416
139 50.34743548
140 47.44187041
141 50.36429437
142 52.94856688
143 41.62673904
144 49.3565714
145 60.59453588
146 48.49965779
147 46.66083244
148 46.66007044
149 47.36128751
150 50.95745627
151 48.01547406
152 44.74716229
153 54.53469996
154 48.00525448
155 46.55776962
156 57.5824627
157 47.01722183
158 49.29537674
159 62.99069808
160 51.10370258
161 55.22183227
162 54.8858975
163 41.77552494
164 46.42295157
165 38.56902786
166 45.71412549
167 51.63931683
168 58.02348634
169 58.37417503
170 54.78530727
171 51.1326201
172 46.78828224
173 56.76723822
174 42.46212894
175 50.01187067
176 52.40130669
177 58.6682913
178 51.59267712
179 42.17683405
180 47.69186374
181 50.35031997
182 45.96131884
183 51.3102465
184 58.84933733
185 43.41154727
186 48.97476448
187 53.46559179
188 48.3238346
189 51.68216598
190 46.47122375
191 58.02201119
192 43.11198741
193 46.2226712
194 46.02554674
195 52.44645347
196 50.51839989
197 51.48712644
198 51.3944388
199 54.73956037
200 59.90805299
ún fórmula de Excel para comportamiento NORMAL, EXPONENCIAL Y UNIFORME
ientes datos: Media=50; Desviación Estándar =5; Para la uniforme de un rango de
50.

bucion normal Distribucion Exponencial Distribucion Uniforme

media 50 limite superior
limite inferior

Este gráfico no está disponible en su vers

ón de Excel. Este gráfico no está disponible en su versión de Excel.
Si edita esta forma o guarda el libro en u
formato de archivo Si edita esta forma o guarda el libro en un formato de
diferente, el gráfico no se podrá utilizar.
archivo diferente, el gráfico no se podrá utilizar.

1 121.9439551 1 48.76293713
2 144.4689224 2 2.349541748
3 82.3619203 3 15.00657262
4 38.77912263 4 44.15594067
5 45.80113259 5 17.95571504
6 155.6226187 6 11.56684947
7 107.4676432 7 34.64994753
8 165.6010025 8 31.35513428
9 58.6195806 9 28.79642655
10 96.76979103 10 32.33440692
11 21.41230909 11 31.36810352
12 76.00677714 12 40.2047758
13 78.80177118 13 28.42160413
14 28.11188938 14 4.651862302
15 4.022980398 15 10.33266608
16 133.8902177 16 22.03453557
17 57.00786031 17 10.74424613
18 10.61209597 18 27.81985696
19 11.50529044 19 37.43386727
20 12.89204706 20 42.62636609
21 13.80664339 21 44.10143825
22 49.01422511 22 2.159976195
23 36.97359924 23 47.60036234
24 36.32424411 24 36.12167164
25 1.468874971 25 6.491936679
26 110.8900686 26 7.218876269
27 122.9692877 27 23.95511777
28 32.108429 28 6.380505102
29 20.5013726 29 48.53376956
30 12.55065476 30 22.19543595
31 54.32338511 31 21.46012289
32 13.21451293 32 48.10564789
33 9.608274715 33 39.94658671
34 207.4346177 34 21.93555364
35 11.33650638 35 29.67380288
36 80.01848968 36 26.57789864
37 58.99698496 37 34.88165251
38 240.0692975 38 15.98414981
39 18.15840127 39 9.313799899
40 53.99535852 40 6.381059223
41 8.126323173 41 18.68018445
42 35.04430029 42 27.46962551
43 46.9287316 43 43.87715937
44 86.301962 44 33.06685157
45 47.12732811 45 37.12896463
46 10.19130014 46 39.75323868
47 155.6909894 47 12.80293625
48 64.35634914 48 37.01048302
49 32.0026467 49 3.223162094
50 129.7963149 50 4.673644515
51 22.13516482 51 38.01862431
52 16.78274129 52 36.09714539
53 126.6586972 53 24.76169129
54 76.5117568 54 36.12826992
55 2.732764184 55 28.88813644
56 3.993804273 56 33.31522288
57 24.14640038 57 49.7311171
58 51.89101306 58 18.1079046
59 76.25527451 59 3.853741994
60 40.98101602 60 45.11120458
61 40.24171475 61 22.24316689
 62 134.6522738 62 49.73728561
63 39.39141912 63 9.347917238
64 259.0108209 64 41.58756213
65 40.70997459 65 8.950565563
66 51.45176363 66 38.91843836
67 8.021842948 67 43.05925851
68 77.5689224 68 15.80420443
69 12.73603992 69 11.06839627
70 77.0059518 70 9.555639833
71 21.85751297 71 49.99282387
72 45.12957596 72 11.92503599
73 14.34077722 73 33.61872626
74 35.85404656 74 31.57856206
75 0.723828683 75 12.75585872
76 6.520679332 76 4.893625915
77 8.230447424 77 45.74104913
78 17.6077283 78 40.57111408
79 16.70972983 79 31.58218218
80 29.25139557 80 26.47957454
81 2.146950711 81 37.15710266
82 13.14161931 82 48.64746443
83 163.7477718 83 46.17345392
84 48.74598556 84 11.4508645
85 8.980688946 85 20.2743585
86 129.9167969 86 34.329286
87 49.01355736 87 36.25010577
88 10.03162037 88 22.95965856
89 89.89641374 89 38.16786879
90 3.527912614 90 41.5960229
91 14.90160001 91 16.41901843
92 240.4332938 92 23.58273558
93 2.210709933 93 30.13254933
94 6.664066699 94 33.6247215
95 3.584007528 95 3.374340314
96 13.77738224 96 33.5178007
97 66.13667632 97 46.76441213
98 13.6444567 98 16.46191652
99 63.05443891 99 8.170009032
100 5.704162773 100 3.848909908
101 4.818914905 101 39.60265831
102 87.20069069 102 23.90513619
103 18.86058775 103 7.758911591
104 4.462822333 104 38.43020533
105 32.39293943 105 20.40195314
106 37.90470203 106 3.049498662
107 22.98948023 107 40.32441341
108 80.94678816 108 1.238845759
109 118.7478693 109 21.719821
110 21.72016585 110 4.472020414
111 24.57972703 111 21.23432248
112 107.8667695 112 25.25249216
113 36.11058107 113 2.728206703
114 14.20508931 114 33.18474624
115 35.48024634 115 21.18474573
116 108.4659605 116 5.099484918
117 7.265560563 117 21.85226688
118 1.296174173 118 47.64637091
119 60.20890882 119 24.92068047
120 44.04592175 120 28.22308281
121 0.801575736 121 28.66561031
122 4.357921051 122 40.20841008
123 36.45465488 123 5.942569873
124 24.92237874 124 19.75978931
125 222.0980834 125 48.57266773
126 3.858577211 126 45.7684643
127 52.46721766 127 22.74241442
128 50.23228607 128 20.08691637
129 1.487594014 129 45.34705864
130 84.07236829 130 36.73991944
131 121.5861171 131 46.71657772
132 67.70221952 132 33.49229786
133 30.12738165 133 32.2373126
134 49.48072255 134 26.03398105
135 42.68012452 135 28.96832735
136 137.3695664 136 6.959247866
137 34.8806906 137 26.68008271
138 51.2353257 138 48.06571199
139 57.48806543 139 10.47305376
140 70.90295224 140 46.06872523
141 26.76225068 141 2.329606653
142 131.8977514 142 48.76618954
143 31.59083232 143 17.06780381
144 12.08181125 144 18.50211049
145 114.5931497 145 39.26299721
146 137.1628803 146 35.33286436
147 50.41508654 147 48.20065663
148 160.8746124 148 19.43038281
149 79.18432459 149 28.96614984
150 2.852967677 150 40.42527704
151 7.246741385 151 26.9417347
152 63.12964208 152 22.00897596
153 202.704716 153 11.88061556
154 28.74781518 154 36.08010444
155 38.83340324 155 14.98333678
156 22.71796499 156 19.7374535
157 114.1583844 157 42.56620699
158 130.2970368 158 28.3760824
159 18.89563417 159 5.03790477
160 26.89463952 160 24.10221779
161 2.947573114 161 10.4661186
162 54.10644041 162 48.14377068
163 28.21074272 163 47.06316018
164 3.701018875 164 22.32380643
165 1.894547971 165 10.44622091
166 47.87165804 166 33.01863806
167 11.09241463 167 16.44392726
168 8.082934455 168 41.51047667
169 196.2662045 169 11.15816479
170 95.96301519 170 43.75686507
171 15.76248173 171 33.89034918
172 40.40192769 172 22.99840844
173 16.47645271 173 18.20429466
174 46.90222963 174 8.712910808
175 19.40422888 175 10.87328541
176 19.34198593 176 43.72963758
177 4.12650464 177 22.64224296
178 16.48286186 178 39.81567553
179 12.77737389 179 31.67240204
180 19.41483954 180 24.0910976
181 51.6310231 181 21.06258946
182 33.02902481 182 36.5974438
183 10.08744043 183 17.90131502
184 23.2563429 184 39.53390667
185 32.8945364 185 28.60782791
186 226.46335 186 19.99938495
187 5.553974627 187 12.98666097
188 16.96144091 188 11.75014354
189 5.307236277 189 19.97906002
190 12.29059857 190 13.31365348
191 109.1572888 191 45.41504645
192 104.6969175 192 6.124026887
193 28.03462173 193 17.02056605
194 15.4958479 194 24.93077097
195 123.812852 195 46.00356904
196 3.159231708 196 9.419208304
197 15.94930758 197 1.85348516
198 5.842633946 198 2.694297712
199 5.54778835 199 23.29286701
200 85.99419616 200 48.33845596
ucion Uniforme
EXCELENTE
50
1

está disponible en su versión de Excel.

ma o guarda el libro en un formato de archivo

ico no se podrá utilizar.
 4. Desarrollar el siguiente caso estableciendo una simulación en Excel:
Se desea simular la llegada y descarga de barcos en un muelle para determinar el número
promedio de barcos que se retrasan para ser descargados al siguiente día, los datos para
realizar la simulación son los siguientes:

Barcos que
Barcos que
lse
llegan por Probabilidad Probabilidad
descargan
día
por día
0 15% 1 7%
1 18% 2 13%
2 14% 3 45%
3 21% 4 22%
4 18% 5 13%
5 14%

Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error de 0,5 barcos.

Determine:
a.       Modelo de simulación de 30 días de operación incluyendo grafico de estabilidad.

Barcos que
Barcos que Barcos que
lse
llegan por Probabilidad De A llegan por
día día descargan
por día
0 15% 0 0.15 0 1
1 18% 0.15 0.33 1 2
2 14% 0.33 0.47 2 3
3 21% 0.47 0.68 3 4
4 18% 0.68 0.86 4 5
5 14% 0.86 1 5

Barcos que
Barcos del dia Numero Barcos que numero lse Total barcos Cantidad de
Dia llegan por aleatorio
anterior aleatorio descargan a descargar barcos
día descargados
por día

1 0 0.23199209 1 0.93170268 5 1 1
2 0 0.66354675 3 0.2526481 3 3 3
3 0 0.30205733 1 0.57112858 3 1 1
4 0 0.10598358 0 0.81212826 4 0 0
 5 0 0.58179866 3 0.36034199 3 3 3
6 0 0.71726697 4 0.57561301 3 4 3
7 1 0.37036015 2 0.38706181 3 3 3
8 0 0.81941689 4 0.59505546 3 4 3
9 1 0.15634786 1 0.79253389 4 2 2
10 0 0.15026643 1 0.39082377 3 1 1
11 0 0.56338919 3 0.62107264 3 3 3
12 0 0.22049227 1 0.17671679 2 1 1
13 0 0.85455418 4 0.72779818 4 4 4
14 0 0.27576123 1 0.06491917 1 1 1
15 0 0.71272145 4 0.81654759 4 4 4
16 0 0.63062222 3 0.28486091 3 3 3
17 0 0.26945771 1 0.60422352 3 1 1
18 0 0.42004046 2 0.49237123 3 2 2
19 0 0.51945596 3 0.36038154 3 3 3
20 0 0.83674046 4 0.36671044 3 4 3
21 1 0.6194661 3 0.09288961 2 4 2
22 2 0.82228173 4 0.59078662 3 6 3
23 3 0.37318969 2 0.33608763 3 5 3
24 2 0.23477873 1 0.74871798 4 3 3
25 0 0.98468127 5 0.88527941 5 5 5
26 0 0.87978958 5 0.16267731 2 5 2
27 3 0.86808537 5 0.3776098 3 8 3
28 5 0.63247499 3 0.55907506 3 8 3
29 5 0.11715895 0 0.11910908 2 5 2
30 3 0.25343823 1 0.75853246 4 4 4
 Barcos que
lse
Probabilidad De A
descargan
por día
7% 0 0.07 1
13% 0.07 0.2 2
45% 0.2 0.65 3
22% 0.65 0.87 4
13% 0.87 1 5

Estadistico
promedio 1
Des.vest 1.502
Chart Title
barcos barcos 1.0
pendientes pendientes
a descargar a descargar 0.9
siguiente dia siguiente dia 0.8
0.7
0 0.0
0.6
0 0.0
0.5
0 0.0
0.4
0 0.0
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2
 0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0 0.0
0.2
1 0.2
0.1
0 0.1
1 0.3 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2
0 0.2
0 0.2
0 0.2
Al oprimir f9 vemos que la cantidad de barcos en espera pa
0 0.2 no superan los 2,5 barcos y sin embargo no se estabiliza lo
0 0.2 debe hacer una corrida con mas numero de
0 0.1
0 0.1
0 0.1
0 0.1
0 0.1
0 0.1
1 0.2
2 0.2
3 0.4
2 0.4
EXCELENTE
0 0.4
0 0.4
3 0.5
5 0.7
5 0.8
3 0.9
0 0.9
 b.      Calculo del número de corridas necesarias para estabilizar la vari
datos para el minitad
Estadistico como se observa en la grafica de minitad s
comportamiento de normalidad dado que
promedio 1 intervalos de confi
Des.vest 1.022
Chart Title
barcos
pendientes
a descargar
siguiente dia

1
2
2
3

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
 3
3
2
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3
3
3
3
cantidad de barcos en espera para el siguiente dia
sin embargo no se estabiliza lo que implica que se 2
na corrida con mas numero de dias. 2
2
2
2
2 longitud de corida
2
2
2
2 la longitud de corida varia desde los 40 hasta
2 una longitud de corrida de 96 para e
CELENTE 2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
ecesarias para estabilizar la variable de interés.

bserva en la grafica de minitad se demuestra que no tiene un

miento de normalidad dado que los datos estan fuera de los
intervalos de confianza.
 90.2988506

corida varia desde los 40 hasta las 200 se tomara

ongitud de corrida de 96 para el punto c.
EXCELENTE
 Barcos que
Barcos que
lse
llegan por Probabilidad Probabilidad
descargan
día
por día
0 15% 1 7%
1 18% 2 13%
2 14% 3 45%
3 21% 4 22%
4 18% 5 13%
5 14%

Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error de 0,5 barcos.

Determine:
c.       Adecuar el número de corridas según el caso del modelo del punto a.
longitud de corrida 96

Barcos que
Barcos que Tiempo
lse
llegan por Probabilidad De A entre fallas
día (Horas) descargan
por día
0 15% 0 0.15 0 1
1 18% 0.15 0.33 1 2
2 14% 0.33 0.47 2 3
3 21% 0.47 0.68 3 4
4 18% 0.68 0.86 4 5
5 14% 0.86 1 5

Barcos que
Barcos del Numero Barcos que numero lse Total barcos Cantidad de
Dia llegan por aleatorio
dia anterior aleatorio descargan a descargar barcos
día descargados
por día

1 0 0.35519629 2 0.82174352 4 2 2
2 0 0.37833746 2 0.78259606 4 2 2
3 0 0.32686207 1 0.06551506 1 1 1
4 0 0.79879032 4 0.24523038 3 4 3
 5 1 0.79013206 4 0.29290944 3 5 3
6 2 0.58069574 3 0.00396005 1 5 1
7 4 0.90909403 5 0.87871001 5 9 5
8 4 0.22619194 1 0.31137399 3 5 3
9 2 0.31968572 1 0.56454484 3 3 3
10 0 0.74352163 4 0.43395348 3 4 3
11 1 0.20146201 1 0.25676478 3 2 2
12 0 0.53820146 3 0.3091334 3 3 3
13 0 0.23289966 1 0.48183329 3 1 1
14 0 0.34158721 2 0.67818005 4 2 2
15 0 0.77117502 4 0.60854689 3 4 3
16 1 0.03477691 0 0.31729615 3 1 1
17 0 0.1877016 1 0.33185065 3 1 1
18 0 0.72393767 4 0.36839468 3 4 3
19 1 0.46095988 2 0.56871246 3 3 3
20 0 0.70910225 4 0.97645832 5 4 4
21 0 0.93679193 5 0.24053863 3 5 3
22 2 0.95127079 5 0.0925079 2 7 2
23 5 0.90743765 5 0.35462291 3 10 3
24 7 0.10830826 0 0.88014526 5 7 5
25 2 0.83800662 4 0.82466626 4 6 4
26 2 0.48305566 3 0.10669458 2 5 2
27 3 0.72515233 4 0.53886999 3 7 3
28 4 0.83723139 4 0.39380435 3 8 3
29 5 0.33950787 2 0.4356699 3 7 3
30 4 0.88028122 5 0.28728463 3 9 3
31 6 0.9869302 5 0.65252601 4 11 4
32 7 0.6036439 3 0.01639898 1 10 1
33 9 0.94458638 5 0.89994658 5 14 5
34 9 0.59150384 3 0.55130779 3 12 3
35 9 0.84065556 4 0.38996371 3 13 3
36 10 0.14652425 0 0.85384414 4 10 4
37 6 0.07476497 0 0.04158718 1 6 1
38 5 0.22151898 1 0.74094536 4 6 4
39 2 0.11525541 0 0.57386317 3 2 2
40 0 0.78180112 4 0.7555737 4 4 4
41 0 0.99385897 5 0.24815974 3 5 3
42 2 0.7408177 4 0.41267608 3 6 3
43 3 0.8855803 5 0.09607348 2 8 2
44 6 0.39132655 2 0.56603113 3 8 3
45 5 0.17817971 1 0.92325839 5 6 5
46 1 0.12779946 0 0.57023448 3 1 1
47 0 0.58338251 3 0.91979813 5 3 3
48 0 0.85392541 4 0.5621511 3 4 3
49 1 0.71309681 4 0.92551112 5 5 5
50 0 0.30844507 1 0.04062223 1 1 1
51 0 0.98064303 5 0.72492041 4 5 4
52 1 0.2991201 1 0.65255297 4 2 2
53 0 0.76569624 4 0.78856951 4 4 4
54 0 0.00518281 0 0.60214331 3 0 0
55 0 0.58443021 3 0.945121 5 3 3
56 0 0.75807311 4 0.4341206 3 4 3
57 1 0.81056479 4 0.7060078 4 5 4
58 1 0.58529792 3 0.29686629 3 4 3
59 1 0.95899447 5 0.31643603 3 6 3
60 3 0.25088313 1 0.4153304 3 4 3
61 1 0.15101451 1 0.71454755 4 2 2
62 0 0.90257063 5 0.77090477 4 5 4
63 1 0.95079354 5 0.69702126 4 6 4
64 2 0.8042361 4 0.870266 5 6 5
65 1 0.98733763 5 0.75538681 4 6 4
66 2 0.14517241 0 0.21665742 3 2 2
67 0 0.4595254 2 0.95123302 5 2 2
68 0 0.81602222 4 0.54287192 3 4 3
69 1 0.16201495 1 0.65039262 4 2 2
70 0 0.9686335 5 0.59112498 3 5 3
71 2 0.31004321 1 0.2871685 3 3 3
72 0 0.8822752 5 0.09898058 2 5 2
73 3 0.64789349 3 0.53501387 3 6 3
74 3 0.76350019 4 0.09859708 2 7 2
75 5 0.35611926 2 0.62565894 3 7 3
76 4 0.72716018 4 0.57771365 3 8 3
77 5 0.37369919 2 0.21220855 3 7 3
78 4 0.5599348 3 0.18416496 2 7 2
79 5 0.33393613 2 0.43773435 3 7 3
80 4 0.93087196 5 0.16064472 2 9 2
81 7 0.58927087 3 0.68049941 4 10 4
82 6 0.67514655 3 0.83366517 4 9 4
83 5 0.49245945 3 0.52855999 3 8 3
84 5 0.9646385 5 0.85004115 4 10 4
85 6 0.12880275 0 0.86970417 4 6 4
86 2 0.92734756 5 0.02627987 1 7 1
87 6 0.41560043 2 0.38130379 3 8 3
88 5 0.85254439 4 0.73838719 4 9 4
89 5 0.51234367 3 0.82160997 4 8 4
90 4 0.74581358 4 0.36700455 3 8 3
91 5 0.25108231 1 0.17788168 2 6 2
92 4 0.91278252 5 0.78231107 4 9 4
93 5 0.40478079 2 0.85468164 4 7 4
94 3 0.08928808 0 0.11468622 2 3 2
95 1 0.519019 3 0.44249147 3 4 3
96 1 0.4909992 3 0.9793102 5 4 4
 e.      Establecer conclusiones y recomendaciones del caso, por cada integrante del grupo.

Barcos que
lse
Probabilidad De A
descargan
por día
7% 0 0.07 1
13% 0.07 0.2 2
45% 0.2 0.65 3
22% 0.65 0.87 4
13% 0.87 1 5

Estadistico
promedio 3 Al oprimir f9 vemos que la cantidad de barcos en espera pa
no superan los 2,5 barcos y sin embargo no se estabiliza lo
Des.vest 2.581 debe hacer una corrida con mas numero de

barcos barcos
pendientes pendientes
a descargar a descargar
siguiente dia siguiente dia
barcos pendientes a descargar
0 0.0 2.0
0 0.0 1.8
0 0.0 1.6
1 0.3 1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
 2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
2 0.6 1.2
4 1.2 1.0
4 1.6 0.8
2 1.6
0.6
0 1.4
0.4
1 1.4
0.2
0 1.3
0.0
0 1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2
0 1.1
0 1.0
1 1.0
0 0.9
0 0.9
1 0.9
0 0.8
0 0.8
2 0.9
5 1.0
7 1.3
2 1.3
2 1.4
3 1.4
4 1.5
5 1.6
4 1.7
6 1.9
7 2.0
9 2.3
9 2.5
9 2.6
10 2.9
6 2.9
5 3.0
2 3.0
0 2.9
0 2.8
2 2.8
3 2.8
6 2.9
5 2.9
1 2.9
0 2.8
0 2.8
1 2.7
0 2.7
0 2.6
1 2.6
0 2.5
0 2.5
0 2.4
0 2.4
1 2.4
1 2.4
1 2.3
3 2.3
1 2.3
0 2.3
1 2.3
2 2.3
1 2.2
2 2.2
0 2.2
0 2.2
1 2.1
0 2.1
2 2.1
0 2.1
3 2.1
3 2.1
5 2.1
4 2.2
5 2.2
4 2.2
5 2.3
4 2.3
7 2.4
6 2.4
5 2.4
5 2.5
6 2.5
2 2.5
6 2.5
5 2.6
5 2.6
4 2.6
5 2.6
4 2.6
5 2.7
3 2.7
1 2.7
1 2.6
0 2.6
 d.      Generar 15 corridas del modelo y calcular el intervalo de c

Estadistico
cantidad de barcos en espera para el siguiente dia promedio 1 4 1
sin embargo no se estabiliza lo que implica que se
na corrida con mas numero de dias. Des.vest 1.470 4.944 1.598

Corrida 1 Corrida 2 Corrida 3

s pendientes a descargar siguiente dia

1.0 0.0 2.0
0.5 0.0 3.5
1.0 0.0 3.0
1.8 0.0 2.8
 2.2 0.0 2.4
2.5 0.0 2.2
2.6 0.1 1.9
2.4 0.5 1.6
2.2 0.9 1.4
2.2 1.2 1.3
2.0 1.6 1.2
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1.8 2.3 1.2
1.7 2.7 1.3
1.6 2.9 1.2
1.5 3.0 1.2
1.4 3.2 1.1
1.3 3.4 1.3
1.2 3.4 1.2
1.2 3.5 1.2
1.1 3.7 1.1
1.0 3.7 1.0
1.0 3.9 1.0
1.0 4.2 1.0
0.9 4.5 1.0
0.9 4.8 0.9
0.8 5.0 0.9
0.8 5.3 1.0
0.8 5.5 1.1
0.8 5.7 1.2
0.7 6.0 1.2
0.7 6.3 1.2
0.7 6.5 1.2
0.7 6.7 1.2
0.7 6.9 1.1
0.7 7.2 1.1
0.8 7.5 1.1
0.8 7.7 1.1
0.8 7.8 1.0
0.8 8.0 1.0
0.8 8.1 1.0
0.7 8.1 1.0
0.7 8.2 1.0
0.7 8.1 1.0
0.8 8.0 0.9
0.8 7.9 0.9
0.8 7.8 0.9
0.8 7.7 0.9
0.8 7.7 0.9
0.8 7.7 0.9
0.8 7.6 0.9
0.9 7.5 0.9
0.8 7.4 0.9
0.8 7.4 0.9
0.8 7.3 0.9
0.9 7.3 0.9
0.9 7.2 1.0
0.8 7.1 1.0
0.8 7.0 1.0
0.8 6.9 1.1
0.8 6.9 1.1
0.9 6.8 1.2
0.9 6.7 1.2
0.9 6.6 1.3
0.8 6.5 1.3
0.8 6.4 1.3
0.9 6.3 1.3
0.9 6.3 1.3
0.9 6.2 1.3
0.9 6.1 1.3
0.9 6.0 1.4
1.0 5.9 1.4
1.0 5.9 1.4
1.0 5.8 1.4
1.0 5.7 1.5
1.0 5.7 1.5
1.1 5.6 1.4
1.1 5.5 1.4
1.1 5.5 1.4
1.1 5.4 1.4
1.1 5.3 1.4
1.1 5.3 1.4
1.1 5.2 1.4
1.0 5.1 1.3
1.0 5.1 1.3
1.0 5.0 1.3
1.0 5.0 1.3
1.0 4.9 1.3
1.0 4.9 1.3
1.0 4.8 1.4
1.1 4.8 1.4
1.1 4.7 1.4
1.2 4.7 1.3
1.2 4.6 1.3
1.2 4.6 1.4
1.1 4.5 1.4
1.1 4.5 1.4
 9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Corrida 1 Corrida 2 Corrida 3 Corrida 4 Corrida 5

Corrida 6 Corrida 7 Corrida 8 Corrida 9 Corrida 10
odelo y calcular el intervalo de confianza. Corrida 11 Corrida 12 Corrida 13 Corrida 14 Corrida 15

2 1 3 1 2 1 2 2
1.919 1.093 3.839 1.181 3.121 2.294 1.868 2.504

Corrida 4 Corrida 5 Corrida 6 Corrida 7 Corrida 8 Corrida 9 Corrida 10 Corrida 11

0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
0.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0
0.5 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.3
0.4 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.6
0.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.8 0.5
0.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.4
0.9 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1.5 0.4
1.1 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.7 0.6
1.3 1.4 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.7
1.3 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.5 0.6
1.3 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.3 1.6 0.7
1.2 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.6 0.8
1.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.0
1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.5 1.7 1.1
1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.6 1.2
1.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.6 1.5
1.1 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.7 1.6
1.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.8 1.6
1.0 1.0 2.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 2.0 1.7
1.0 1.0 2.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 2.1 1.7
1.1 1.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 2.3 1.7
1.2 1.2 3.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 2.3 1.7
1.3 1.2 4.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.5 1.6
1.4 1.2 4.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 2.4 1.6
1.5 1.1 4.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 2.4 1.6
1.5 1.1 4.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 2.5 1.6
1.5 1.0 4.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 2.6 1.6
1.6 1.0 4.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 2.7 1.6
1.8 1.0 4.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 2.7 1.6
1.9 1.0 4.7 0.9 0.8 1.3 2.7 1.5
2.0 1.0 4.8 0.8 0.8 1.4 2.8 1.5
2.1 1.0 4.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 2.8 1.5
2.1 0.9 4.8 0.8 0.7 1.7 2.7 1.4
2.1 0.9 4.8 0.8 0.7 1.8 2.6 1.4
2.1 0.9 4.9 0.9 0.7 1.9 2.6 1.4
2.1 0.9 4.9 0.9 0.8 2.1 2.6 1.4
2.1 0.9 5.0 0.9 0.8 2.2 2.5 1.3
2.2 0.8 5.1 1.0 0.7 2.4 2.4 1.3
2.2 0.8 5.2 1.0 0.7 2.6 2.4 1.3
2.2 0.8 5.3 1.0 0.8 2.6 2.4 1.3
2.2 0.8 5.3 1.0 0.8 2.6 2.3 1.4
2.1 0.8 5.4 1.0 0.7 2.5 2.3 1.4
2.1 0.8 5.4 0.9 0.7 2.5 2.2 1.4
2.1 0.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 2.4 2.2 1.3
2.1 0.7 5.6 0.9 0.7 2.4 2.2 1.3
2.1 0.7 5.7 1.0 0.7 2.3 2.2 1.3
2.1 0.7 5.7 0.9 0.7 2.3 2.2 1.3
2.0 0.7 5.7 0.9 0.7 2.2 2.2 1.3
2.0 0.7 5.6 1.0 0.7 2.2 2.3 1.4
2.0 0.7 5.5 0.9 0.7 2.2 2.2 1.5
2.0 0.7 5.5 0.9 0.8 2.1 2.2 1.7
1.9 0.7 5.5 0.9 0.8 2.1 2.1 1.8
1.9 0.6 5.5 0.9 0.8 2.0 2.1 2.0
1.9 0.6 5.4 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.1 2.1
1.8 0.6 5.4 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.0 2.2
1.8 0.6 5.3 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.1
1.8 0.6 5.2 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.9 2.1
1.8 0.6 5.2 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.1
1.8 0.6 5.2 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.0
1.8 0.6 5.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0
1.8 0.6 5.1 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0
1.7 0.6 5.0 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0
1.8 0.6 5.0 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0
1.8 0.7 5.0 0.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0
1.7 0.7 4.9 0.8 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.0
1.7 0.7 4.8 0.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.9
1.7 0.7 4.7 0.8 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.9
1.7 0.7 4.7 0.8 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.9
1.6 0.7 4.6 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.9
1.6 0.7 4.5 0.9 2.5 1.7 2.0 1.9
1.6 0.7 4.5 0.9 2.6 1.6 2.0 1.9
1.6 0.7 4.4 0.9 2.6 1.6 2.0 2.0
1.6 0.7 4.4 0.9 2.6 1.6 1.9 2.0
1.6 0.7 4.3 0.9 2.5 1.6 1.9 2.0
1.6 0.7 4.3 0.9 2.5 1.6 1.9 2.0
1.6 0.7 4.2 0.9 2.5 1.5 1.9 2.1
1.5 0.7 4.2 0.9 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.1
1.5 0.7 4.2 0.9 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.2
1.5 0.7 4.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 2.0 2.2
1.5 0.7 4.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 2.1 2.2
1.5 0.7 4.0 0.9 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.2
1.4 0.7 4.0 0.9 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.1
1.4 0.7 3.9 0.9 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.1
1.4 0.7 3.9 0.9 2.4 1.4 2.2 2.1
1.4 0.7 3.8 0.8 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.1
1.4 0.7 3.8 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.0
1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.0
1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.0
1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.0
1.4 0.7 3.6 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.0 2.0
1.4 0.8 3.6 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.0 1.9
1.5 0.8 3.6 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.0 1.9
1.5 0.8 3.5 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.0 1.9
1.6 0.8 3.5 0.8 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.9
1.6 0.8 3.5 0.8 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.9
 Se puede ver que mas del 93% de las
coridad tienen una estabilidad de
barcos para el proximo dia de 0 a 3
barcos
77 81 85 89 93

Corrida 5
Corrida 10
4 Corrida 15

1 2 2 1 Intervalos de confianza
1.820 2.172 3.113 2.089 promedio

Corrida 12 Corrida 13 Corrida 14 Corrida 15 1

0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 4

0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1
0.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 2
0.3 1.3 1.3 0.5 1
0.2 2.0 1.0 0.4 3
0.3 2.3 0.8 0.3 1
0.9 2.7 0.7 0.3 2
1.4 3.0 0.6 0.3 1
1.8 3.1 0.6 0.2 2
2.0 2.9 0.5 0.2 2
2.4 2.6 0.5 0.2 1
2.3 2.4 0.5 0.2 2
2.4 2.2 0.5 0.2 2
2.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 1
2.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
2.6 1.8 0.6 0.1
2.4 1.7 0.5 0.2
2.3 1.6 0.5 0.2
2.2 1.5 0.5 0.2
2.3 1.5 0.5 0.3
2.5 1.5 0.5 0.3
2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3
2.5 1.3 0.8 0.3
2.4 1.3 1.0 0.3
2.3 1.4 1.3 0.3
2.2 1.4 1.7 0.3
2.2 1.4 2.1 0.3
2.1 1.5 2.4 0.4
2.1 1.4 2.8 0.6
2.0 1.5 3.0 0.9
2.0 1.7 3.1 1.1
1.9 1.8 3.1 1.3
1.8 1.8 3.0 1.4
1.8 1.9 2.9 1.4
1.7 2.0 2.9 1.3
1.7 2.1 2.8 1.3
1.6 2.3 2.8 1.3
1.7 2.4 2.7 1.4
1.6 2.5 2.7 1.5
1.6 2.6 2.6 1.7
1.5 2.6 2.6 1.7
1.5 2.6 2.5 1.7
1.5 2.7 2.5 1.7
1.4 2.7 2.4 1.7
1.4 2.8 2.4 1.6
1.4 2.8 2.3 1.6
1.3 2.9 2.3 1.6
1.4 2.9 2.2 1.5
1.3 2.9 2.2 1.6
1.3 2.9 2.2 1.6
1.3 3.0 2.2 1.7
1.4 3.0 2.2 1.8
1.4 2.9 2.3 1.7
1.4 2.9 2.3 1.7
1.4 2.8 2.4 1.7
1.4 2.8 2.4 1.6
1.4 2.8 2.5 1.6
1.4 2.7 2.4 1.6
1.3 2.7 2.4 1.6
1.3 2.7 2.3 1.5
1.3 2.7 2.3 1.5
1.3 2.6 2.3 1.5
1.3 2.6 2.3 1.5
1.3 2.6 2.3 1.4
1.3 2.6 2.3 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.3 1.3
1.3 2.4 2.3 1.3
1.3 2.4 2.4 1.3
1.2 2.4 2.5 1.3
1.3 2.4 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.3 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.3 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.3 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.3 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.2 2.5 1.3
1.2 2.2 2.5 1.3
1.2 2.2 2.5 1.3
1.2 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.2 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.2 2.1 2.4 1.2
1.1 2.1 2.4 1.2
1.1 2.1 2.3 1.2
1.1 2.1 2.4 1.2
1.1 2.1 2.4 1.2
1.1 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.2 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.2 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.3 2.1 2.3 1.2
1.3 2.1 2.3 1.2
1.3 2.1 2.3 1.2
1.3 2.1 2.3 1.3
 DATOS
r 15
x 3
s 3
z = 1.6713
IC+ 3.72826093
IC- 1.50090574
al revizar los resultados con los parametro estipulados por el ejercicio
podemos decir que el 90% de los datos estaran entre los dos intervalos de
confianza, como se puede ver en la grafica y tenemos dos datos por fuera de
los intervalos de confianza. sin embargo cumple con los parametros del 90 %
de confianza.
COMO EL VALOR p>0,005
, se concluye que es
normal, por tanto , se usa
la formula señalada