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Cost of Equity

0.096471914
0.096883177
0.097302919
0.097731405
0.098168912
0.098615728
0.099072153
0.0995385
0.100015097
0.100502284
0.10100042
0.101509877
0.102031046
0.102564334
0.103110171
0.103669004
0.104241303
0.10482756
0.105428292
0.106044043
0.106675383
0.107322911
0.107987258
0.108669087
0.108669087
0.109369099
0.11008803
0.110826657
0.111585802
0.112366332
0.113169162
0.113995263
0.11484566
0.115721443
0.116623765
0.11755385
0.118513001
0.119502601
0.120524123
0.121579138
0.12266932
0.123796457
0.124962462
0.126169378
0.127419399
0.128714875
0.130058332
0.131452485
0.13290026
0.13440481
0.135969541
0.13759814
0.139294597
0.141063243
0.142908787
0.144836356
0.146851541
0.148960455
0.151169794
0.153486906
0.155919873
0.158477608
0.161169961
0.164007846
0.167003391
0.170170111
0.173523108
0.177079317
0.180857789
0.184880033
0.189170427
0.21577087
0.255671534
0.322172641
0.455174854

Cost of Debt
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06129
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.06879
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379
0.07379

Dependent Variable
WACC
0.09588658
0.095704283
0.095521986
0.095339689
0.095157392
0.094975095
0.094792798
0.094610501
0.094428204
0.094245907
0.09406361
0.093881313
0.093699016
0.093516719
0.093334422
0.093152125
0.092969828
0.092787531
0.092605234
0.092422937
0.09224064
0.092058343
0.091876046
0.091693749
0.091693749
0.091511452
0.091329155
0.091146857
0.09096456
0.090782263
0.090599966
0.091856844
0.091720972
0.0915851
0.091449228
0.091313356
0.091177484
0.091041612
0.09090574
0.090769868
0.090633996
0.090498124
0.090362252
0.09022638
0.090090508
0.089954636
0.089818764
0.089682892
0.08954702
0.089411148
0.089275276
0.089139404
0.089003532
0.08886766
0.088731788
0.088595916
0.088460044
0.088324171
0.088188299
0.088052427
0.087916555
0.089668633
0.089563711
0.089458789
0.089353867
0.089248945
0.089144023
0.089039101
0.088934179
0.088829257
0.088724335
0.088199725
0.087675115
0.087150505
0.086625894

Independent Variables
IRR
NPV
Debt Ratio
0.055906
-83538595.78
0.01
0.056867
-79591757.19
0.02
0.057872
-75649544.93
0.03
0.058922
-71711997.61
0.04
0.060022
-67779152.45
0.05
0.061174
-63851047.91
0.06
0.062382
-59927723.26
0.07
0.06365
-56009216.09
0.08
0.064981
-52095565.77
0.09
0.066381
-48186812.09
0.1
0.067854
-44282992.87
0.11
0.069405
-40384148.79
0.12
0.07104
-36490319.7
0.13
0.072765
-32601544.52
0.14
0.074586
-28717864.19
0.15
0.076511
-24839318.9
0.16
0.078548
-20965948.54
0.17
0.080705
-17097794.79
0.18
0.082991
-13234898.45
0.19
0.085417
-9377299.91
0.2
0.087992
-5525041.106
0.21
0.09073
-1678163.509
0.22
0.093641
2163291.209
0.23
0.096741
5999280.649
0.24
0.096741
5999280.649
0.24
0.100043
9829762.682
0.25
0.103564
13654694.85
0.26
0.10732
17474034.76
0.27
0.11133
21287739.07
0.28
0.115614
25095765.1
0.29
0.120193
28898069.29
0.3
0.125089
31087530.17
0.31
0.130326
34848534.54
0.32
0.135929
38605279.5
0.33
0.141925
42357740.87
0.34
0.148344
46105893.87
0.35
0.155216
49849716.25
0.36
0.162572
53589182.62
0.37
0.170448
57324268.36
0.38
0.178879
61054950.62
0.39
0.187904
64781203.75
0.4
0.197565
68503003.01
0.41
0.207904
72220324.94
0.42
0.21897
75933144.29
0.43
0.230811
79641434.98
0.44
0.243482
83345174.04
0.45
0.25704
87044335.15
0.46
0.271548
90738893.02
0.47
0.287071
94428824.11
0.48
0.303681
98114101.32
0.49
0.321456
101794699.9
0.5
0.340477
105470594.4
0.51
0.360833
109141759.2
0.52
0.38262
112808168.3
0.53
0.405937
116469796.8
0.54
0.430894
120126617.8
0.55
0.457605
123778605.7
0.56
0.486192
127425734.2
0.57
0.516786
131067977.2
0.58
0.549525
134705308.6
0.59
0.584557
138337701.6
0.6
0.62204
140810136.7
0.61
0.662145
144448308.4
0.62
0.705055
148082804.6
0.63
0.75097
151713610.2
0.64
0.800108
155340708.7
0.65
0.852712
158964085.3
0.66
0.90905
162583724.7
0.67
0.969421
166199611.1
0.68
1.034167
169811728.5
0.69
1.10367
173420062.9
0.7
1.54049
191404427.8
0.75
2.20253
209291834.7
0.8
3.308312
227080287.3
0.85
5.518416
244767760.7
0.9

Levered BETA - Peer


1.052969389
1.059645724
1.066459716
1.073415666
1.080518057
1.087771563
1.095181058
1.102751629
1.110488586
1.118397475
1.126484093
1.134754497
1.143215025
1.15187231
1.160733296
1.169805257
1.17909582
1.188612982
1.198365136
1.208361094
1.218610114
1.229121929
1.239906778
1.250975439
1.250975439
1.262339265
1.274010221
1.286000929
1.298324712
1.310995645
1.324028603
1.337439329
1.351244488
1.365461741
1.38010982
1.395208609
1.410779236
1.426844167
1.443427323
1.460554188
1.478251949
1.496549635
1.515478274
1.535071077
1.555363622
1.576394079
1.598203441
1.620835798
1.64433863
1.668763142
1.694164634
1.720602922
1.748142805
1.776854598
1.80681473
1.838106423
1.870820467
1.905056093
1.940921987
1.978537438
2.018033661
2.059555331
2.103262352
2.149331915
2.197960898
2.24936868
2.303800449
2.361531113
2.422869944
2.488166119
2.557815372
2.989640741
3.637378794
4.716942216
6.876069061

FFO/Debt
13.26354
6.595453
4.372759
3.261411
2.594603
2.150064
1.832536
1.59439
1.409166
1.260986
1.139748
1.038717
0.953229
0.879953
0.816447
0.76088
0.71185
0.668268
0.629273
0.594178
0.562425
0.533559
0.507203
0.483043
0.483043
0.460816
0.440299
0.421302
0.403661
0.387237
0.371908
0.357569
0.344125
0.331496
0.31961
0.308403
0.297819
0.287807
0.278321
0.269323
0.260774
0.252642
0.244897
0.237513
0.230464
0.223729
0.217286
0.211118
0.205206
0.199536
0.194093
0.188863
0.183834
0.178995
0.174336
0.169845
0.165515
0.161337
0.157303
0.153406
0.149639
0.145995
0.142469
0.139055
0.135747
0.132541
0.129433
0.126417
0.12349
0.120647
0.117886
0.105185
0.094072
0.084266
0.075549

Levered BETA - CEG


0.824895883
0.830126122
0.835464201
0.84091349
0.8464775
0.852159894
0.85796449
0.863895273
0.869956403
0.876152225
0.882487278
0.88896631
0.895594285
0.902376399
0.909318093
0.916425065
0.923703289
0.93115903
0.938798864
0.946629694
0.954658773
0.962893726
0.971342574
0.980013759
0.980013759
0.988916176
0.9980592
1.007452717
1.017107164
1.027033569
1.037243584
1.047749543
1.0585645
1.069702291
1.081177592
1.093005978
1.105204002
1.117789264
1.130780503
1.144197684
1.158062104
1.172396505
1.187225195
1.202574191
1.218471364
1.234946617
1.252032064
1.269762246
1.288174357
1.307308511
1.327208032
1.347919779
1.369494514
1.391987324
1.415458082
1.439971984
1.465600155
1.492420334
1.520517664
1.549985596
1.580926924
1.613454987
1.647695054
1.683785935
1.721881864
1.762154704
1.804796535
1.850022719
1.898075539
1.949228542
2.003791744
2.3420836
2.849521384
3.695251024
5.386710303

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.993424046
R Square
0.986891336
Adjusted R Square
0.986337449
Standard Error
0.000268693
Observations
75
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
IRR
NPV
Debt Ratio

3
71
74

SS
0.000385905
5.1259E-06
0.000391031

Coefficients
Standard Error
0.049156223
0.002518771
-0.000395684
7.18747E-05
-5.40374E-10
2.97116E-11
0.19084713
0.011093359

MS
F
Significance F
0.000128635 1781.755052
1.00613E-66
7.21957E-08

t Stat
19.51595878
-5.505191157
-18.18733526
17.2037287

P-value
3.00192E-30
5.53721E-07
1.96724E-28
4.95925E-27

Lower 95%
0.044133937
-0.000538998
-5.99618E-10
0.168727602

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


0.054178509 0.044134 0.054178509
-0.00025237 -0.00054
-0.00025237
-4.81131E-10
-6E-10 -4.81131E-10
0.212966659 0.168728 0.212966659

WACC = 0.049156223 + (-0.000395684) * IRR + (-5.40374E-10) * NPV + (0.19084713) * DEBT RATIO

Base Case - I

RECCurve Drop

Tariff Curve Drop

Debt Ratio
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%
75.00%
80.00%

Cost of Equity
9.82%
10.05%
10.31%
10.60%
10.94%
11.32%
11.76%
12.27%
12.87%
13.60%
14.48%
15.59%
17.02%
18.92%
21.58%
25.57%

Years
2012 - 2014
2015 - 2020
2020- 2025
2025 - 2036

Percentage Points
10%
20%
30%
50%

2012 - 2014
2015 - 2020
2020- 2025
2025 - 2036

0%
0%
0%
0%

Cost of Debt
NPV
6.13%
($87,204,247.61)
6.13%
($67,763,715.88)
6.13%
($48,448,104.32)
6.13%
($29,262,422.52)
6.13%
($10,211,807.20)
6.13%
$8,698,468.40
6.88%
$26,030,114.07
6.88%
$44,587,531.52
6.88%
$63,032,719.32
6.88%
$81,362,564.59
6.88%
$99,573,895.70
6.88%
$117,663,478.25
7.38%
$134,903,916.65
7.38%
$152,890,205.14
7.38%
$170,780,960.00
7.38%
$188,574,208.71

W A CC
9.52%
9.42%
9.33%
9.24%
9.15%
9.06%
9.13%
9.06%
9.00%
8.93%
8.86%
8.79%
8.92%
8.87%
8.82%
8.77%

IRR
4.92%
5.42%
6.08%
6.98%
8.22%
10.01%
12.61%
16.43%
21.95%
29.80%
40.88%
56.43%
78.17%
108.68%
152.44%
218.63%

Levered BETA - Peer FFO/Debt


1.081
238.65%
1.118
115.70%
1.161
74.71%
1.208
54.22%
1.262
41.92%
1.324
33.72%
1.395
27.87%
1.478
23.48%
1.576
20.06%
1.694
17.33%
1.838
15.09%
2.018
13.23%
2.249
11.65%
2.558
10.30%
2.990
9.13%
3.637
8.11%

Levered B ETA - CEG


0.846
0.876
0.909
0.947
0.989
1.037
1.093
1.158
1.235
1.327
1.440
1.581
1.762
2.004
2.342
2.850

A djus ted W ACC


10.58%
10.48%
10.39%
10.31%
10.24%
10.17%
10.18%
10.13%
10.09%
10.05%
10.02%
9.99%
10.00%
9.97%
9.94%
9.91%

Levered BETA - Peer


1.081
1.118
1.161
1.208
1.262
1.324
1.395
1.478
1.576
1.694
1.838
2.018
2.558
2.990

Levered BETA - CEG


0.846
0.876
0.909
0.947
0.989
1.037
1.093
1.158
1.235
1.327
1.440
1.581
2.004
2.342

Adjusted WACC
11.12%
11.02%
10.94%
10.86%
10.79%
10.72%
10.74%
10.69%
10.65%
10.61%
10.58%
10.55%
10.53%
10.50%

BaseCase- II

RECCurveDrop

Tariff CurveDrop

Debt Ratio
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
70.00%
75.00%

Cost of Equity
9.82%
10.05%
10.31%
10.60%
10.94%
11.32%
11.76%
12.27%
12.87%
13.60%
14.48%
15.59%
18.92%
21.58%

Years
2012- 2014
2015- 2020
2020- 2025
2025- 2036

Percentage Points
20%
30%
40%
50%

2012- 2014
2015- 2020
2020- 2025
2025- 2036

Cost of Debt
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
7.38%
7.38%

NPV
($97,129,065.47)
($77,753,465.30)
($58,503,349.86)
($39,383,734.64)
($20,399,762.36)
($1,556,712.31)
$15,827,598.36
$34,334,871.17
$52,729,587.45
$71,008,631.77
$89,168,829.90
$107,206,944.83
$142,494,830.57
$160,345,920.05

0%
0%
0%
0%

WACC
9.52%
9.42%
9.33%
9.24%
9.15%
9.06%
9.13%
9.06%
9.00%
8.93%
8.86%
8.79%
8.87%
8.82%

IRR
4.40%
4.83%
5.40%
6.17%
7.27%
8.89%
11.31%
14.97%
20.38%
28.19%
39.26%
54.82%
107.15%
150.91%

Base Case - III

RECCurve Drop

Tariff Curve Drop

Years
2012 - 2014
2015 - 2020
2020- 2025
2025 - 2036
2012 - 2014
2015 - 2020
2020- 2025
2025 - 2036

Percentage Points
30%
30%
50%
70%
0%
0%
0%
0%

FFO/Debt
226.76%
109.75%
70.74%
51.24%
39.54%
31.74%
26.17%
21.99%
18.74%
16.14%
14.01%
12.24%
9.45%
8.34%

Debt Ratio
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%
75.00%

Cost of Equity
9.82%
10.05%
10.31%
10.60%
10.94%
11.32%
11.76%
12.27%
12.87%
13.60%
14.48%
15.59%
17.02%
18.92%
21.58%

Cost of Debt
NPV
6.13% ($101,985,919.39)
6.13%
($82,643,139.63)
6.13%
($63,426,196.24)
6.13%
($44,340,109.46)
6.13%
($25,390,026.80)
6.13%
($6,581,232.43)
6.88%
$10,829,920.36
6.88%
$29,311,636.60
6.88%
$47,680,590.31
6.88%
$65,933,663.96
6.88%
$84,067,681.23
6.88%
$102,079,403.00
7.38%
$119,472,029.63
7.38%
$137,398,647.09
7.38%
$155,229,405.31

W ACC
9.52%
9.42%
9.33%
9.24%
9.15%
9.06%
9.13%
9.06%
9.00%
8.93%
8.86%
8.79%
8.92%
8.87%
8.82%

IRR
4.13%
4.53%
5.05%
5.77%
6.79%
8.32%
10.65%
14.22%
19.55%
27.27%
38.23%
53.68%
75.34%
105.79%
149.47%

Levered B ETA - Peer FFO/Debt


1.081
223.78%
1.118
108.26%
1.161
69.75%
1.208
50.50%
1.262
38.95%
1.324
31.24%
1.395
25.74%
1.478
21.62%
1.576
18.41%
1.694
15.84%
1.838
13.74%
2.018
11.99%
2.249
10.51%
2.558
9.24%
2.990
8.14%

Levered B ETA - CE G
0.846
0.876
0.909
0.947
0.989
1.037
1.093
1.158
1.235
1.327
1.440
1.581
1.762
2.004
2.342

A djusted W ACC
11.38%
11.29%
11.20%
11.13%
11.06%
10.99%
11.01%
10.96%
10.92%
10.88%
10.85%
10.83%
10.83%
10.81%
10.78%

FFO/Debt
229.67%
111.20%
71.71%
51.97%
40.12%
32.23%
26.58%
22.35%
19.06%
16.43%
14.28%
12.48%
10.96%
9.66%

Levered BETA - CEG


0.846
0.876
0.909
0.947
0.989
1.037
1.093
1.158
1.235
1.327
1.440
1.581
1.762
2.004

Adjusted WACC
11.27%
11.18%
11.10%
11.02%
10.96%
10.90%
10.91%
10.86%
10.82%
10.79%
10.76%
10.74%
10.74%
10.72%

FFO/Debt
217.78%
105.26%
67.75%
49.00%
37.74%
30.24%
24.89%
20.87%
17.74%
15.24%
13.20%
11.49%
10.05%

Levered BETA - CEG


0.846
0.876
0.909
0.947
0.989
1.037
1.093
1.158
1.235
1.327
1.440
1.581
1.762

Adjusted WACC
11.81%
11.72%
11.64%
11.57%
11.51%
11.45%
11.46%
11.42%
11.38%
11.35%
11.33%
11.31%
11.30%

IntermediateCase- I

RECCurveDrop

Tariff CurveDrop

Debt Ratio
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%

Cost of Equity
9.82%
10.05%
10.31%
10.60%
10.94%
11.32%
11.76%
12.27%
12.87%
13.60%
14.48%
15.59%
17.02%
18.92%

Years
2012- 2014
2015- 2020
2020- 2025
2025- 2036

Percentage Points
10%
20%
30%
50%

2012- 2014
2015- 2020
2020- 2025
2025- 2036

Cost of Debt
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
7.38%
7.38%

NPV
($99,935,748.79)
($80,640,477.04)
($61,472,156.70)
($42,435,830.16)
($23,536,667.54)
($4,779,976.05)
$12,672,057.38
$31,114,859.73
$49,444,229.90
$67,657,040.47
$85,750,105.06
$103,720,174.35
$121,193,831.82
$139,088,865.53

0%
10%
10%
20%

WACC
9.52%
9.42%
9.33%
9.24%
9.15%
9.06%
9.13%
9.06%
9.00%
8.93%
8.86%
8.79%
8.92%
8.87%

IRR
4.00%
4.40%
4.94%
5.69%
6.80%
8.48%
11.06%
14.99%
20.73%
28.85%
40.18%
55.94%
77.86%
108.50%

Levered BETA - Peer


1.081
1.118
1.161
1.208
1.262
1.324
1.395
1.478
1.576
1.694
1.838
2.018
2.249
2.558

IntermediateCase- II

RECCurveDrop

Tariff CurveDrop

Debt Ratio
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%

Cost of Equity
9.82%
10.05%
10.31%
10.60%
10.94%
11.32%
11.76%
12.27%
12.87%
13.60%
14.48%
15.59%
17.02%

Years
2012- 2014
2015- 2020
2020- 2025
2025- 2036

Percentage Points
20%
30%
40%
50%

2012- 2014
2015- 2020
2020- 2025
2025- 2036

Cost of Debt
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.13%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
6.88%
7.38%

NPV
($109,860,566.66)
($90,630,226.46)
($71,527,402.24)
($52,557,142.28)
($33,724,622.70)
($15,035,156.76)
$2,469,541.67
$20,862,199.39
$39,141,098.04
$57,303,107.65
$75,345,039.26
$93,263,640.92
$110,837,923.40

0%
10%
10%
20%

WACC
9.52%
9.42%
9.33%
9.24%
9.15%
9.06%
9.13%
9.06%
9.00%
8.93%
8.86%
8.79%
8.92%

IRR
3.45%
3.76%
4.19%
4.80%
5.71%
7.16%
9.53%
13.30%
18.99%
27.12%
38.49%
54.30%
76.28%

Levered BETA - Peer


1.081
1.118
1.161
1.208
1.262
1.324
1.395
1.478
1.576
1.694
1.838
2.018
2.249

Intermediate Case - III

REC Curve Drop

Tariff Curve Drop

D ebt R atio
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%

Years
2012 - 2014
2015 - 2020
2020- 2025
2025 - 2036

Percentage Points
30%
30%
50%
70%

2012 - 2014
2015 - 2020
2020- 2025
2025 - 2036

10%
20%
20%
30%

C os t of E quity C os t of D ebt
NP V
W A CC
9.82%
6.1 3% ($1 27,418,747.31) 9.5 2%
10.05%
6.1 3% ($1 08,336,564.19) 9.4 2%
10.31%
6.1 3% ($89,38 3,655.74)
9.3 3%
10.60%
6.1 3% ($70,56 5,095.75)
9.2 4%
10.94%
6.1 3% ($51,88 6,086.25)
9.1 5%
11.32%
6.1 3% ($33,35 1,966.87)
9.0 6%
11.76%
6.8 8% ($15,72 5,526.62)
9.1 3%
12.27%
6.8 8%
$2,5 51,222.35
9.0 6%
12.87%
6.8 8%
$20, 713,177.75
9.0 0%
13.60%
6.8 8%
$38, 757,198.35
8.9 3%
14.48%
6.8 8%
$56, 680,083.80
8.8 6%
15.59%
6.8 8%
$74, 478,570.64
8.7 9%

IR R
2.26 %
2.38 %
2.56 %
2.83 %
3.29 %
4.15 %
5.99 %
9.74 %
15.79%
24.26%
35.82%
51.74%

Levered B E TA - P eerF F O /D ebt Levered B E TA - C E G


1 .081
203.34%
0 .846
1 .118
98.04%
0 .876
1 .161
62.94%
0 .909
1 .208
45.39%
0 .947
1 .262
34.86%
0 .989
1 .324
27.84%
1 .037
1 .395
22.82%
1 .093
1 .478
19.06%
1 .158
1 .576
16.14%
1 .235
1 .694
13.80%
1 .327
1 .838
11.88%
1 .440
2 .018
10.29%
1 .581

A djus ted W A C C
12.75 %
12.68 %
12.61 %
12.54 %
12.49 %
12.44 %
12.44 %
12.41 %
12.38 %
12.35 %
12.34 %
12.32 %