INTEGRANTES

MELENDEZ CUEVA MIRELLA JAZMIN

OSORIO ALCANTARA LADY ANDREA
PN01713AM Producto bruto interno y demanda interna (variaciones porcentuales a

movil 10
Año Valor yt y estimado MAPE RMSE
Abr05 5.580548088079
May05 0.649824288521
Jun05 9.108800203586
Jul05 8.610611225119
Ago05 2.412095141356
Sep05 3.048411885178
Oct05 1.469089889815
Nov05 -0.98907218971
Dic05 6.741549877181
Ene06 3.410320922979
Feb06 3.13267192035 4.00421793 0.278212 0.759592
Mar06 8.486597916811 3.75943032 0.557016 22.34611
Abr06 13.86338188857 4.54310768 0.672294 86.86751
May06 6.380446672856 5.01856585 0.213446 1.854719
Jun06 1.980863142712 4.79554939 1.420939 7.922459
Jul06 9.013185764446 4.75242619 0.472725 18.15407
Ago06 19.71643223285 5.34890358 0.728708 206.4259
Sep06 12.76293590633 7.17363781 0.437932 31.24025
Oct06 11.67899122677 8.54883862 0.268016 9.797855
Nov06 13.14199192571 9.04258276 0.311932 16.80516
Dic06 8.055880649191 10.0157499 0.243284 3.841087
Ene07 3.26916265794 10.5080707 2.2143 52.40179
Feb07 6.964967893188 9.98632721 0.433794 9.128612
Mar07 5.844293347974 9.29648581 0.590695 11.91763
Abr07 -0.91995282916 9.24287047 11.04711 103.283
May07 10.33543603632 8.95278888 0.133777 1.911713
Jun07 7.240588338095 9.0850139 0.254734 3.401906
Jul07 -5.37549326128 7.83742952 2.457993 174.5813
Ago07 -5.57856058573 6.0235866 2.079774 134.6098
Sep07 2.448371794791 4.29783142 0.755383 3.420501
Oct07 3.475055590566 3.2284694 0.070959 0.060805
Nov07 3.733729815857 2.7703869 0.258011 0.92803
Dic07 7.550155332452 2.81684361 0.626916 22.40424
Ene08 8.721318248973 2.87536236 0.670306 34.1752
Feb08 3.341648882696 3.16306485 0.053442 0.031892
Mar08 3.814105777621 3.58922502 0.05896 0.050571
Abr08 9.041247456944 2.93709199 0.675145 37.26071
May08 5.148984586692 3.11715791 0.394607 4.12832
Jun08 13.68614789392 4.16960569 0.695341 90.56458
Jul08 13.00067990552 6.09607654 0.531096 47.67355
Ago08 11.11589661423 7.15130735 0.356659 15.71797
Sep08 7.316529118602 7.91539145 0.081851 0.358636
Oct08 8.381573274896 8.27367138 0.012874 0.011643
Nov08 8.237684551449 8.35681318 0.014461 0.014192
Dic08 7.455562396822 8.30844981 0.114396 0.727417
Ene09 -2.79798514823 8.71984116 4.116472 132.6603
Feb09 5.880401605889 8.05863207 0.370422 4.744688
Mar09 7.291524304517 7.74254748 0.061856 0.203422
Abr09 2.902837053589 7.95680145 1.741043 25.54256
May09 6.914776273705 6.87847037 0.00525 0.001318
Jun09 -6.62630144085 6.26988 1.946211 166.3115
Jul09 1.225382487821 4.4956602 2.668781 10.69472
Ago09 3.321669290063 3.88654554 0.170058 0.319085
Sep09 2.406092499479 3.38055514 0.404998 0.949577
Oct09 1.549879842678 2.79739593 0.804911 1.556296
Nov09 3.292362705253 2.20682768 0.329713 1.178386
Dic09 0.582384338144 2.81586246 3.835059 4.988425
Ene10 8.450260805567 2.28606074 0.729469 37.99736
Feb10 -0.02074606876 2.40193439 116.7778 5.869381
Mar10 3.266271213352 2.10957607 0.354133 1.337944
Abr10 4.323983745306 1.74472557 0.5965 6.652573
May10 -1.20043690356 2.83975409 3.3656 16.32314
Jun10 3.347979144937 2.59717215 0.224257 0.563711
Jul10 2.509193191831 2.59980313 0.036111 0.00821
Ago10 -1.61879875433 2.6101132 2.612377 17.8837
Sep10 2.558186589644 2.29324534 0.103566 0.070194
Oct10 4.181873910977 2.21982773 0.469179 3.849625
Nov10 5.976367620868 2.57977669 0.568337 11.53683
Dic10 10.2740334045 2.33238737 0.772982 63.06974
Ene11 6.86488349201 3.36186532 0.510281 12.27114
Feb11 6.471462014801 3.72172654 0.424902 7.561045
Mar11 0.565185962496 3.93647437 5.964919 11.36559
Abr11 6.782854724198 4.11303666 0.393613 7.127929
May11 0.321908511685 4.45652422 12.84407 17.09505
Jun11 2.878617124556 4.23779575 0.472164 1.847367
Jul11 13.26175333328 4.68753734 0.646537 73.51718
Ago11 7.076338432506 5.75789401 0.186317 1.738296
Sep11 3.470836115219 6.04734046 0.74233 6.638375
Oct11 6.371051989623 5.79678731 0.090137 0.32978
Nov11 6.413526291566 5.40648917 0.157018 1.014124
Dic11 -2.55010342342 5.36135345 3.102406 62.59115
Ene12 5.829946595465 4.45919691 0.235122 1.878955
Feb12 5.31483648681 4.98567297 0.061933 0.108349
Mar12 4.831955678163 4.83887115 0.001431 4.782E-05
Abr12 0.623415832646 5.28987586 7.485309 21.77585
May12 15.35030844632 5.06435573 0.670081 105.8008
Jun12 14.89253839941 5.27321124 0.645916 92.53145
Jul12 3.193849814241 6.05483124 0.895778 8.185215
Ago12 6.370327902025 6.02713261 0.053874 0.117783
Sep12 6.616867434485 6.0270602 0.089137 0.347873
Oct12 6.821345188207 6.04739432 0.11346 0.599
Nov12 3.397416746298 6.98453918 1.055838 12.86745
Dic12 14.11908145439 6.74128619 0.522541 54.43186
Ene13 6.505005389112 7.62171069 0.171669 1.247031
Feb13 6.633362638426 7.78901566 0.174218 1.335534
Mar13 7.820163573802 8.39001034 0.072869 0.324725
Abr13 0.462593838445 7.63699585 15.50907 51.47204
May13 -1.93868068024 6.1940014 4.194957 66.14052
Jun13 1.301661224891 5.68074835 3.36423 19.1764
Jul13 -1.83626620032 5.17388168 3.81761 49.14217
Ago13 0.749371875584 4.32856832 4.776262 12.81065
Sep13 3.673397749894 3.72137099 0.01306 0.002301
Oct13 6.075856880781 3.74896909 0.382973 5.414407
Nov13 7.495957718005 2.94464663 0.607169 20.71443
Dic13 1.74439075179 3.04374186 0.744874 1.688313
Ene14 2.804366147688 2.55484467 0.088976 0.062261
Feb14 -0.85175614996 2.05326493 3.410625 8.439147
Mar14 1.556554178642 1.92182993 0.234669 0.133426
Abr14 5.721031238969 2.27135342 0.602982 11.90028
May14 0.564011973778 2.71329042 3.810696 4.619398
Jun14 -3.12297490352 2.95331824 1.945675 36.92134
Jul14 1.958195980961 2.56608356 0.310432 0.369527
Ago14 4.927864662904 2.39456338 0.514077 6.417615
Sep14 1.781759966539 2.27976416 0.279501 0.248008
Oct14 -0.57766227558 1.70834438 3.957341 5.225826
Nov14 3.537306036971 1.47613908 0.582694 4.248409
Dic14 2.023900989078 1.54943307 0.234432 0.22512
Ene15 -1.87445971118 1.83699878 1.980015 13.77492
Feb15 3.209614299076 1.4938974 0.534555 2.943684
Mar15 2.329505191147 1.2427557 0.466515 1.181024
Abr15 -0.36895093591 1.41930502 4.846867 3.197859
May15 3.750755265689 1.69470742 0.548169 4.227333
Jun15 8.772226590141 1.87396335 0.786375 47.58604
Jul15 6.409495481394 2.25839954 0.647648 17.2316
Ago15 2.146018548813 2.72117309 0.26801 0.330803
Sep15 5.390740143691 2.99354118 0.444688 5.746563
Oct15 5.838253393285 3.17888459 0.455508 7.072242
Nov15 1.310611578336 3.56031983 1.716533 5.061187
Dic15 3.591331474188 3.87882696 0.080053 0.082654
Ene16 6.83945247052 3.91699867 0.427294 8.540736
Feb16 2.021017259687 4.3679934 1.161285 5.508297
Mar16 -0.14922945905 4.60699022 31.87185 22.62163
Abr16 3.817133504906 4.21699175 0.104754 0.159887
May16 1.011239903477 3.72148244 2.680118 7.345415
Jun16 0.471684790194 3.18165688 5.745303 7.343949
Jul16 -1.09167931025 3.01422351 3.761089 16.85844
Ago16 6.219444840012 2.36598156 0.619583 14.84918
Sep16 3.337876890651 2.40410071 0.279752 0.871938
Oct16 4.528226774018 2.60682724 0.424316 3.691776
Nov16 5.910395505761 2.70051677 0.54309 10.30332
Dic16 2.597926737979 2.60761107 0.003728 9.379E-05
Ene17 2.087093834488 2.66530202 0.27704 0.334325
Feb17 -0.83821103369 2.88893435 4.446548 13.89161
Mar17 -1.2743410882 2.42339989 2.901689 13.67329
Abr17 -0.40526391497 2.19484179 6.415833 6.76055
May17 -3.3259678282 2.10714692 1.633544 29.51874
Jun17 6.573318389918 1.88371807 0.71343 21.99235
Jul17 12.68131088943 1.91910543 0.848667 115.8251
Ago17 1.913578377513 2.85344883 0.491159 0.883356
Sep17 5.366429010105 2.59198399 0.517 7.697545
Oct17 0.766509479236 2.53758734 2.310575 3.136717
Nov17 0.822175564641 2.35444561 1.863677 2.347851
Dic17 12.21638367914 2.22795378 0.817626 99.76873
Ene18 4.99528249753 3.53341326 0.29265 2.137062
Feb18 6.036182374439 4.16037561 0.31076 3.518651
Mar18 10.11912389983 4.80452024 0.525204 28.24501
Abr18 12.13674831275 6.14902942 0.493354 35.85278
May18 16.43650537099 6.70537241 0.592044 94.69495
Jun18 4.963380314818 7.08089186 0.426627 4.483855
Jul18 4.267580973762 7.38587205 0.730693 9.723739
Ago18 8.155947773214 7.27598725 0.107892 0.774331
Sep18 7.054935352864 8.01493108 0.136074 0.921592
Oct18 7.701421036638 8.63820705 0.121638 0.877568
Nov18 5.003017847817 8.18671079 0.636355 10.1359
Dic18 2.743403337663 8.18748433 1.984426 29.63802
Ene19 3.677813697899 7.85820642 1.136652 17.47568
Feb19 4.900463695136 7.2140754 0.472121 5.352799
Mar19 5.727784787385 6.49044694 0.133151 0.581654
Abr19 4.344236327133 5.41957488 0.247532 1.156353
May19 2.233703273045 5.35766048 1.398555 9.759109
Jun19 0.893929972616 5.15427271 4.765857 18.15052
Jul19 -1.03610764264 4.42807093 5.273756 29.85725
Ago19 4.464890360501 3.61896663 0.189461 0.715587
Sep19 4.078234923254 3.29531357 0.191976 0.612966
Oct19 8.126165221182 3.20283527 0.605861 24.23918
Nov19 5.349960536413 3.74111146 0.300722 2.588395
Dic19 2.802889567101 3.90832615 0.394392 1.22199
Ene20 4.680864894323 3.69856873 0.209854 0.964906
Feb20 5.974699187896 3.59387674 0.398484 5.668316
Mar20 1.673766524502 3.75692303 1.244592 4.339541
Abr20 2.610731786575 3.70092935 0.417583 1.188531
May20 4.121644821455 3.87260954 0.060421 0.062019
 Jun20 -1.62454458394 4.38838478 3.701302 36.15532
Jul20 -5.11053823298 3.77944129 1.739539 79.03174
Ago20 -2.81475851686 2.86056397 2.016273 32.20929
Sep20 2.97364639592 1.7664716 0.405958 1.457271
Oct20 2.229022149525 1.52884018 0.314121 0.490255
Nov20 1.121986947973 1.47145344 0.311471 0.122127
Dic20 -2.49166958698 1.11556565 1.447718 13.01215
Ene21 1.861547093357 0.26892877 0.855535 2.536433
Feb21 0.600834926426 0.28770683 0.521155 0.098049
Mar21 -0.38418411819 0.08671714 1.225718 0.221748
Abr21 -3.3283245758 -0.36386575 0.890676 8.788016
May21 -4.36309550001 -0.53424375 0.877554 14.66011
Jun21 12.32216084143 -0.45949948 1.03729 163.3708
Jul21 12.64601879834 1.05419246 0.916638 134.3704
Ago21 8.04173900542 2.0214297 0.748633 36.24412
Sep21 12.81742514891 2.60270138 0.79694 104.3406
Oct21 6.342608777596 3.7722452 0.405253 6.606769
Nov21 2.866985462862 4.65567304 0.623891 3.199403
Dic21 10.05046351831 4.75621688 0.526766 28.02905
Ene22 7.003364508815 5.70117974 0.185937 1.695685
Feb22 2.919555051128 6.4399346 1.205793 12.39307
Mar22 4.924216627545 7.06472256 0.43469 4.581766
Abr22 8.036260475536 7.99345377 0.005327 0.001832
PRONÓSTICO 7.56486374
MAPE 1.995103 4.546076
interna (variaciones porcentuales anualizadas) - Agropecuario

Suavizamiento exponencial simple α= 0.295127

Y estimado MAPE RMSE

5.580548088 7.58778009173 24.31203719

4.125356213 0.54710212974 24.83471401
5.596107263 0.35009175114 9.087234138
6.48577009 1.6888533452 16.59482759
5.283516845 0.73320307227 4.995694181
4.623876048 2.14744256277 9.952675702
3.692812096 4.73361230305 21.92004047
2.311059589 0.65719165018 19.6292442
3.61861883 0.06107868199 0.043388018
3.557144403 0.13549854348 0.180176888
3.431870927 0.59561287564 25.55026494
4.923659546 0.64484426775 79.91863556
7.562016884 0.18518612758 1.396108165
7.213303097 2.64149493282 27.37842787
5.669066506 0.371025223 11.18313361
6.65600785 0.6624131703 170.574685
10.51049742 0.17648278611 5.073479141
11.17525382 0.04313192822 0.25375138
11.32392055 0.1383406252 3.30538354
11.86048329 0.47227644109 14.47500127
10.73764067 2.28452322214 55.77816377
8.533487897 0.22520132585 2.460255003
8.070574609 0.38093249752 4.956328254
7.413537928 9.05860658567 69.44706819
4.954096163 0.5206688769 28.95881883
6.542277205 0.09644397671 0.487638439
6.74836798 2.25539511476 146.9880114
3.170283891 1.56829783272 76.54227967
0.588259848 0.75973426553 3.460016456
1.137229918 0.67274482708 5.465428874
1.827186416 0.51062703889 3.634907736
2.389859682 0.683468806 26.6286512
3.912804509 0.5513517111 23.12180438
5.331928843 0.59559817027 3.96121432
4.74454262 0.24394626077 0.865712718
4.46994518 0.50560526064 20.89680451
5.819061903 0.13013775915 0.449003609
5.621303702 0.58927057155 65.04171184
8.001460495 0.38453522795 24.99219472
9.476867304 0.14744913227 2.68641708
9.960589823 0.36138183302 6.991057008
9.180254965 0.09529018765 0.637892442
8.944542085 0.08580779337 0.499647573
8.735929033 0.17173307235 1.639338724
8.35805771 3.98717014825 124.4572923
5.065603379 0.13856166317 0.66389615
5.306072691 0.27229582326 3.942018109
5.892033936 1.02975014699 8.935298003
5.009839923 0.27548777797 3.628782501
5.572038905 1.84089728707 148.7995072
1.971973989 0.60927221348 0.557398869
1.751634353 0.47266443471 2.465009704
2.214994739 0.07942244964 0.036518354
2.271392931 0.46552840337 0.520581137
2.058454623 0.37477890279 1.522529155
2.422614752 3.15982126162 3.386447977
1.879512267 0.77757937764 43.17473635
3.81872044 185.069593334 14.74150307
2.685588531 0.17778152641 0.337192377
2.856963923 0.3392750549 2.15214716
3.289921722 3.74060361906 20.16332059
1.964693692 0.41317027172 1.913478645
2.372939182 0.05430192087 0.018565155
2.413151478 2.49070505024 16.25662268
1.223212342 0.52184397069 1.782156242
1.61719987 0.61328344566 6.577552939
2.374105545 0.60275108635 12.97629206
3.437231917 0.66544473997 46.74185458
5.454959614 0.20538205482 1.987885341
5.871066834 0.09277581779 0.360474373
6.048259925 9.70136260632 30.06410007
4.430054362 0.34687465058 5.535669545 INSERTAR
5.124430301 14.9189027797 23.06421554 GRAFICO DE LINEAS
3.707074357 0.28779695121 0.686341385 NOMBRE DE LA SERIE
3.462573897 0.73890527063 96.02391761 ARRASTRO LA SERIE
6.354580605 0.10199594533 0.520934362 EDITAR
6.567591142 0.89222162158 9.589891697 RANGO DE ROTULOS DEL EJE
5.653653769 0.11260278857 0.514660206 PARA EL AÑO
5.865377667 0.08546758826 0.300466914
6.027151366 3.36349291177 73.56929971
3.495768147 0.4003773294 5.448389029
4.184648249 0.21264779088 1.277325453
4.518197806 0.06493392999 0.098444002
4.610796363 6.3960206356 15.89920349
3.434010968 0.77629042567 141.9981456
6.950837296 0.53326712278 63.07061641
9.294651185 1.91017165027 37.21977736
7.494137315 0.17641311885 1.262947597
7.162470324 0.08245637303 0.297682513
7.001447942 0.02640282065 0.032437002
6.948294678 1.04516996198 12.60873408
5.900333176 0.58210219302 67.54782326
8.325911287 0.27992381086 3.31569829
7.788511997 0.17414235011 1.334370042
7.447595728 0.04764195046 0.1388068
7.557550721 15.3373354622 50.33841317
5.463634284 3.81822289759 54.79426683
3.279008044 1.5190948163 3.909900444 25
2.695438746 2.46789106382 20.53634972
1.358008282 0.81219542183 0.370438275 20
1.17838298 0.67921171081 6.225098703
1.914730293 0.68486250902 17.31497448 15

3.142792916 0.58073497287 18.95004379

10
4.427531285 1.53815338125 7.19924312
3.635662897 0.29642946248 0.691054286
5
3.390324419 4.98039323675 17.99524755
2.138370055 0.37378453264 0.338509714
0
1.966660227 0.65624025729 14.0953017 Año Abr06May07Jun08 Jul09 Ago10 Sep11 O
3.074678119 4.45144121469 6.303444495
-5
2.333711656 1.74727198519 29.77542821
0.72329374 0.63063260952 1.524983546
-10
1.087747272 0.77926600123 14.74650157
2.221071274 0.24656031993 0.192994425
2.091418454 4.6204864717 7.123991941
1.3036995 0.6314428306 4.988998161
1.962898072 0.03014125577 0.003721356
1.980901706 2.05678542703 14.86381166
0.843078774 0.73732707557 5.60049039
1.541508337 0.3382679107 0.620939042
1.774067829 5.8084112439 4.592529425
1.141604194 0.69563351556 6.807669314
1.911636262 0.78208083867 47.06769966
3.936384698 0.38585108456 6.116276945
4.666267544 1.17438360291 6.351654998
3.922472919 0.27236839208 2.155808644
4.355798861 0.25392089594 2.19767144
4.793311867 2.65730926393 12.1292013
3.765471458 0.04848897561 0.030324734
3.714077971 0.4569626754 9.76796576
4.636461736 1.29412278063 6.840549806
3.864572312 26.8968459483 16.11060466
2.679989284 0.29790527866 1.293096978
3.015591743 1.98207352464 4.017426297
2.424052523 4.1391365022 3.811739763
1.847855239 2.69267221733 8.640863364
0.980317943 0.84237854538 27.44845065
2.526528034 0.24307333183 0.658286968
2.765979342 0.3891694299 3.105516012
3.286066909 0.44401911752 6.887100583
4.060578281 0.56300723232 2.139349535
3.62890968 0.73873815361 2.377196102
3.173877522 4.7864897913 16.09685458
1.989800111 2.56143447763 10.65461777
1.026462487 3.53282478082 2.049840489
0.603920744 1.18157744605 15.44402419
-0.5558972 1.08456873125 50.82571487
1.548129924 0.87792035557 123.9477184
4.833837083 1.52607216925 8.527910908
3.971988617 0.25984512051 1.944464009
4.383526236 4.71881542834 13.08281022
3.316045353 3.03325700145 6.219386519
2.580035955 0.78880526163 92.85919746
5.423986556 0.08582178468 0.18378717
5.297464227 0.12238168135 0.545704502
5.51548022 0.45494488708 21.19353513
6.874141778 0.4336092666 27.69502754
8.427281354 0.48728265748 64.14766935
10.79102311 1.17412779647 33.96142051
9.071125829 1.12558962193 23.07404317
7.653467949 0.06160900461 0.252485974
7.801763532 0.10585896842 0.557752329
7.581354046 0.01559023853 0.014416082
7.616789109 0.52243892399 6.831800205
6.845393497 1.49521949724 16.82632327
5.634783656 0.53210143833 3.829731419
5.057228129 0.03198971441 0.024575088
5.010962644 0.12514823276 0.513833986
5.222516525 0.20217136733 0.771376107
4.963311942 1.22201041732 7.450763485
4.157729533 3.65106849535 10.65238757
3.194492735 4.08316684835 17.89797956
1.945926491 0.56417149505 6.345178978
2.68934184 0.34056230431 1.929023996
3.099242295 0.61860949032 25.2699541
4.582825172 0.1433908454 0.588496667
4.809227866 0.71581068417 4.025393369
4.217102387 0.09907624295 0.215075663
4.353971427 0.271265165 2.626758475
4.832292656 1.88707689248 9.976287325
3.900124936 0.49388189005 1.662534693
3.519589641 0.14607158224 0.36247044
3.697272643 3.27588253321 28.3217386
2.126658367 1.41613197478 52.37701463
-0.00923691 0.99671839938 7.870951468
-0.83722331 1.28154770301 14.52272793
0.287468896 0.87103362982 3.769629038
0.86047453 0.23307973238 0.068388745
0.93765402 1.37631555353 11.7602604
-0.07443347 1.03998473399 3.748020724
0.496927514 0.1729383691 0.01079675
0.527593442 2.37328280216 0.83133832
0.258502868 1.07766756587 12.86533111
-0.80006832 0.81662828131 12.69516268
-1.8516154 1.15026710187 200.8959329
2.331454849 0.81563724627 106.3902295
5.375565667 0.33154188875 7.108480272
6.16242657 0.51921493607 44.28900609
8.126499241 0.28125500492 3.182265184
7.600024221 1.65087644133 22.40165589
6.203174625 0.38279716015 14.80163183
7.338615134 0.04786993805 0.112392982
7.239673476 1.47971809046 18.66342321
5.964688 0.21129683178 1.082580677
5.657616351 0.29598892816 5.657947871

2.30349607079 4.310455023
 y estimado
Suavizamiento exponencial simple
Valor yt

May07 Jun08 Jul09 Ago10 Sep11 Oct12 Nov13 Dic14 Ene16 Feb17Mar18Abr19May20Jun21
 Valor yt
25

20

15

10

0
Abr05 Dic05 Ago06 Abr07 Dic07 Ago08 Abr09 Dic09 Ago10 Abr11 Dic11 Ago12 Abr13 Dic13 Ago14 Abr15 Dic15 Ago16 Abr17 Dic17 Ago18 Abr19 Dic19 Ago20 Abr21 Dic21

-5

-10
 Valor
Yt Movil 19 Movil 2- 19 Yestimado MAPE RMSE
T105 99409.6774
T205 96642.2732
T305 98367.7865
T405 102382.136
T106 98705.7917
T206 96012.0702
T306 94921.6386
T406 96826.068
T107 94033.0595
T207 93660.5654
T307 98090.3621
T407 94549.1595
T108 85361.4057
T208 89849.7578
T308 89217.7379
T408 94078.315
T109 95616.3286
T209 93333.6103
T309 92611.3111
T409 97812.5939 95074.0824
T110 94912.4752 94849.2223
T210 93775.4885 94705.8831
T310 94754.9392 94525.2407
T410 100156.625 94413.9652
T111 99483.0308 94452.8271
T211 97290.3935 94516.7433
T311 97982.8066 94669.8017
T411 101737.409 94915.3687
T112 98966.02 95162.0167
T212 97598.9488 95358.9359
T312 97371.2534 95322.9805
T412 101224.934 95656.7692
T113 97871.4732 96282.2726
T213 97781.2126 96678.8453
T313 97893.8435 97112.6506
T413 105087.449 97663.1073
T114 100181.718 97891.3767
T214 102323.123 98340.8524
T314 104684.287 98944.5011 95826.8721
T414 114431.966 99775.4698 96061.9415 102390.302 0.1052299 145001680
T115 115259.973 100792.845 96359.1226 103879.896 0.09873399 129506164
T215 117146.964 101961.418 96721.8994 105693.274 0.09777197 131187013
T315 126313.597 103539.351 97172.6049 107752.466 0.14694484 344515577
T415 142240.979 105643.569 97734.0851 110576.282 0.22261304 1002653040
T116 142103.23 107774.579 98400.1727 114385.63 0.19505257 768265358
T216 140335.281 109926.823 99170.6767 118135.765 0.15818913 492818504
T316 146899.884 112372.677 100055.82 121815.196 0.17076043 629241562
T416 156662.582 115118.936 101065.999 125986.045 0.19581279 941049895
T117 153453.142 117843.292 102200.063 130651.129 0.14859267 519931779
T217 163563.253 121141.507 103489.191 135133.177 0.17381701 808269223
T317 166752.832 124610.586 104953.571 140651.962 0.1565243 681255429
T417 173975.676 128248.123 106583.139 146336.76 0.15886655 763909661
T118 169060.448 131807.572 108359.404 152193.632 0.09976796 284489473
T218 171612.564 135499.139 110300.419 157723.968 0.08092995 192893094
T318 174917.533 139350.324 112412.302 163350.357 0.06612931 133799564
T418 190789.068 143635.405 114710.917 169123.927 0.11355546 469378337
T119 188688.872 148060.763 117219.387 175604.575 0.06934324 171198834
T219 193420.814 152615.647 119933.126 182148.599 0.05827819 127062821
T319 195540.534 157158.46 122843.824 188738.433 0.03478614 46268579.4
T419 206301.434 161751.933 125942.647 195085.162 0.05436837 125804766
T120 202002.811 166089.075 129207.459 201330.617 0.00332765 451844.748
T220 215929.345 171028.194 132660.798 206852.966 0.04203402 82380648.5
T320 225257.785 175975.403 136282.6 213434.263 0.05248885 139795672
T420 219846.396 11% 19505.4784
exponencial exponencial
simple doble Yestimado MAPE RMSE a= 0.374845
99409.6774 0 b= 0.525165
98372.3294 -544.778372
98030.0557 -438.430129 97827.551 0.005492 291854.324
99387.3251 504.607539 97591.6255 0.04679049 22948989.8
99447.3135 271.109349 99891.9326 0.01201693 1406930.12 en muestra 1
98329.1146 -458.506048 99718.4228 0.03860299 13737049.8 fuera de la muestar 2
96765.2015 -1039.02659 97870.6085 0.03106741 8696423.46
96138.4645 -822.506743 95726.1749 0.01135947 1209764.74
94835.0696 -1075.05213 95315.9577 0.01364305 1645827.74
93722.7383 -1094.62981 93760.0174 0.00106184 9890.71763
94675.6077 -19.3558854 92628.1085 0.05568594 29836214.4
94616.1088 -40.4375843 94656.2518 0.00113266 11468.7663
91121.7486 -1854.31518 94575.6712 0.10794416 84902688.7
89485.7149 -1739.6815 89267.4334 0.00648109 339101.668
88297.6947 -1449.96856 87746.0334 0.01649565 2165914.32
89558.0772 -26.5883466 86847.7261 0.07685713 52281416.2
91812.3614 1171.245 89531.4888 0.06363808 37025274.8
93114.8037 1240.14515 92983.6064 0.00375003 122502.735
93701.3547 896.900707 94354.9488 0.01882748 3040272.52
95803.1345 1529.66047 94598.2554 0.03286221 10331971.6
96425.5499 1053.20754 97332.795 0.02550054 5857947.88
96090.6051 324.199182 97478.7575 0.0394908 13714200.8
95792.612 -2.55415667 96414.8043 0.01751745 2755151.97
97426.8442 857.02799 95790.0578 0.04359739 19066907.7
98733.371 1093.0888 98283.8722 0.0120539 1437981.41
98875.8277 593.850539 99826.4598 0.02606698 6431632.36
98912.3316 301.15188 99469.6782 0.01517482 2210787.27
100159.565 798.000095 99213.4835 0.02480823 6370198.4
100211.044 405.953852 100957.565 0.02012352 3966249.98
99485.6967 -188.165257 100616.998 0.03092296 9108618.96
98575.4755 -567.363434 99297.5315 0.01978282 3710547.31
99213.9222 65.8852574 98008.1121 0.03177895 10347944.6
98751.9002 -211.352903 99279.8075 0.01438963 1983405.49
98255.9144 -360.832017 98540.5473 0.00776565 576589.217
97894.618 -361.075895 97895.0824 1.26553E-05 1.53480379
100365.087 1125.95117 97533.5421 0.0718821 57061507
101000.246 868.204352 101491.038 0.01306946 1714320.88
102038.882 957.709067 101868.45 0.0044435 206727.055
103629.216 1289.94104 102996.591 0.01612177 2848317.09
108484.987 3162.58858 104919.157 0.0831307 90493540.3
113001.665 3873.70844 111647.576 0.0313413 13049416.9
116977.178 3927.17248 116875.374 0.00231837 73761.4018
122931.98 4992.01159 120904.351 0.04282394 29259943.1
133290.645 7810.38726 127923.992 0.10065304 204976113
141476.701 8007.67539 141101.032 0.00705261 1004401.68
146054.882 6206.62681 149484.376 0.06519455 83705953.4
150251.73 5151.16207 152261.509 0.0364985 28747028.2
155875.081 5399.13873 155402.892 0.00804078 1586817.97
158342.527 3859.5177 161274.219 0.0509672 61169250.6
162712.287 4127.47896 162202.044 0.00832222 1852889.42
166807.179 4110.36558 166839.766 0.00052133 7557.47494
172063.87 4712.37513 170917.545 0.01757792 9352166.83
173884.016 3193.47894 176776.245 0.04563928 59533535.6
175028.992 2117.67789 177077.495 0.03184459 29865474.7
176311.089 1678.86034 177146.67 0.01274393 4969051.2
182787.636 4198.43546 177989.949 0.06708518 163817433
187624.358 4533.64088 186986.072 0.00902438 2899529.7
192631.359 4782.23267 192157.999 0.00652884 1594700.17
196711.485 4413.51126 197413.592 0.00957887 3508344.31
203065.359 5432.52072 201124.997 0.02509162 26795504
206063.235 4153.93157 208497.88 0.03215336 42185919.7
212358.349 5278.40451 210217.166 0.02645392 32628980.7
220493.46 6778.64556 217636.753 0.03383249 58080130.2
227272.105 0.02840378 4740.01113
 Valor
250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
05 05 06 06 07 07 108 308 109 309 110 310 111 311 112 312 113 313 114 314 115 315 116 316 117 317 118 318 119 319 120 320
T1 T3 T1 T3 T1 T3 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T
 ALFA: GAMA:
0.34278377 0.35715054 Error Porcentual Absoluto Medio
componente componente Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Valor básico estacional
Yt L S Yestimado MAPE RMSE
Ene05 82.3741222 25.6734355
Feb05 77.1218542 20.4211675
Mar05 84.0267442 27.3260575
Abr05 58.6028072 1.9021205
May05 73.6068542 16.9061675
Jun05 38.5914162 -18.1092705
Jul05 28.6544202 -28.0462665
Ago05 23.1517092 -33.5489775
Sep05 19.9016332 -36.7990535
Oct05 60.7037812 4.0030945
Nov05 69.1991642 12.4984775
Dic05 64.4737342 56.7006867 7.7730475
Ene06 76.9174742 54.8302363 24.3926231 82.3741222 0.07094159 29.7750074
Feb06 80.2525082 56.5445337 21.5950524 75.2514038 0.06231711 25.011045
Mar06 90.5874852 58.846976 28.9026813 83.8705912 0.07414814 45.1166645
Abr06 93.9352462 70.2226495 9.69174391 60.7490965 0.35328752 1101.32053
May06 75.9940632 66.4058366 14.2925609 87.128817 0.14652136 123.982742
Jun06 63.2134392 71.5190986 -14.6079055 48.2965661 0.23597629 222.513103
Jul06 39.9441812 70.3095343 -28.8745296 43.4728321 0.08833955 12.4513772
Ago06 34.3883132 69.4963677 -34.1058027 36.7605568 0.06898401 5.62753991
Sep06 33.0971842 69.6334367 -36.705194 32.6973142 0.01208169 0.159896
Oct06 29.3297262 54.445783 -6.39682619 73.6365312 1.51064502 1963.09297
Nov06 50.8646714 48.9339608 8.72419381 66.9442605 0.3161249 258.553186
Dic06 91.9652081 61.0198995 16.0490331 56.7070083 0.38338629 1243.14065
Ene07 96.9055252 64.9595143 27.0903197 85.4125225 0.11860008 132.08911
Feb07 82.5613882 63.5907175 20.657753 86.5545666 0.04836617 15.9454741
Mar07 90.6041352 62.9431086 28.4592237 92.4933988 0.02085185 3.56931702
Abr07 91.9565242 69.5662641 14.2270259 72.6348525 0.21011746 373.326997
May07 88.9147002 71.299336 15.4793019 83.858825 0.05686208 25.5618741
Jun07 58.9142602 72.061286 -14.0861515 56.6914305 0.03772991 4.94097168
Jul07 41.2070172 71.3826635 -29.3392241 43.1867564 0.04804374 3.91936729
Ago07 31.3548102 69.3526807 -35.4958568 37.2768608 0.18887216 35.0706831
Sep07 29.2203302 68.177907 -37.5096337 32.6474867 0.11728671 11.7454016
Oct07 51.8230872 64.7644684 -8.73421757 61.7810808 0.19215362 99.1616375
Nov07 84.4605412 68.5254505 11.2995696 73.4886622 0.12990538 120.382128
Dic07 78.3911132 66.4058915 14.5976407 84.5744836 0.07887846 38.2340694
Ene08 96.6966682 67.5029562 27.8415474 93.4962111 0.0330979 10.2429256
Feb08 92.2694792 68.9113759 21.6221846 88.1607093 0.04453011 16.8819905
Mar08 92.7977972 67.3438934 27.385872 97.3705995 0.04927706 20.9105212
Abr08 106.285564 75.8156726 20.0281742 81.5709193 0.23253059 610.813672
May08 108.950691 81.8677657 19.6235424 91.2949745 0.16205236 311.724332
Jun08 85.1903942 87.835213 -9.9998733 67.7816142 0.20435144 303.06562
Jul08 53.4599912 86.1089547 -30.5212993 58.4959889 0.09420124 25.3612723
Ago08 47.4134392 85.0121636 -36.2468971 50.6130979 0.06748421 10.2378156
Sep08 57.9354762 88.5884083 -35.060759 47.5025299 0.18007872 108.846369
Oct08 86.0538982 90.7135674 -7.27899041 79.8541907 0.07204447 38.4363728
Nov08 96.0701892 88.6764214 9.90461035 102.013137 0.06186048 35.318628
Dic08 94.8259422 85.780543 12.6146546 103.274062 0.08909081 71.3707289
Ene09 95.2912242 79.4970196 23.5388324 113.62209 0.19236678 336.020654
Feb09 97.2339262 78.1652093 20.7102122 101.119204 0.03995805 15.0953851
Mar09 104.560004 77.8254842 27.1532413 105.551081 0.00947855 0.98223397
Abr09 106.803022 80.8931808 22.1288148 97.8536584 0.08379317 80.0911133
May09 106.051819 82.7905219 20.9227685 100.516723 0.05219237 30.6372876
Jun09 88.0450192 88.0194726 -6.41928913 72.7906486 0.17325649 232.695822
Jul09 63.6391522 90.1245005 -29.0798572 57.4981733 0.09649687 37.7116224
Ago09 42.4522692 86.2080814 -38.9287102 53.8776034 0.26913365 130.538261
Sep09 34.6560672 80.5551468 -38.9316711 51.1473223 0.47585478 271.961496
Oct09 49.9390822 72.5555765 -12.7567882 73.2761563 0.46731083 544.61903
Nov09 67.6574612 67.4814424 6.43003861 82.4601869 0.21878926 219.120687
Dic09 102.65958 75.2158382 17.9108712 80.096097 0.21978936 509.110773
Ene10 96.4866912 74.4384117 23.0064806 98.7546706 0.02350562 5.14373071
Feb10 89.9342818 72.6510198 19.4862751 95.1486239 0.05797947 27.1893636
Mar10 97.4896332 71.8576029 26.60994 99.8042612 0.0237423 5.35750275
Abr10 99.9131092 73.8891766 23.5199583 93.9864177 0.05931846 35.125672
May10 102.96502 76.6839184 22.8365001 94.8119451 0.07918296 66.4726321
Jun10 67.2416799 75.6477004 -7.12885131 70.2646292 0.04495648 9.13822242
Jul10 49.3555997 76.6032981 -28.4255007 46.5678432 0.05648308 7.77158626
Ago10 34.5551418 75.5340026 -39.6609226 37.6745879 0.09027444 9.7309437
Sep10 41.116439 77.0813654 -37.8720966 36.6023315 0.10978839 20.3771662
Oct10 42.2192757 69.5040268 -17.9454581 64.3245771 0.52358315 488.644352
Nov10 40.1220148 57.2282371 -1.97594974 75.9340654 0.89257857 1282.50297
Dic10 52.4359599 49.4459663 12.5818717 75.1391083 0.43296906 515.432948
Ene11 88.5220981 54.9543819 26.7784316 72.4524469 0.18153265 258.233692
Feb11 89.7792987 60.2122194 23.0866398 74.440657 0.17084831 235.27393
Mar11 86.0031192 59.9314657 26.4176907 86.8221593 0.00952338 0.67082664
Abr11 86.8129486 61.0837418 24.3089926 83.451424 0.03872147 11.299848
May11 79.719617 59.6438357 21.8505079 83.9202419 0.05269249 17.6452501
Jun11 51.230021 59.2033711 -7.43046451 52.5149844 0.02508223 1.65113093
Jul11 43.6058783 63.600604 -25.4144449 30.7778704 0.2941807 164.557786
Ago11 32.1774296 66.4243704 -37.7273161 23.9396814 0.25601014 67.8604952
Sep11 37.2857895 69.4180778 -35.822121 28.5522738 0.23423175 76.2742953
Oct11 50.3905939 69.0471769 -18.1994367 51.4726198 0.02147277 1.17077993
Nov11 47.7556402 62.4261072 -6.50980347 67.0712272 0.40446714 373.091901
Dic11 84.1668733 65.5656276 14.7316944 75.0079789 0.10881828 83.8853457
Ene12 99.1454971 67.8970501 28.3749 92.3440592 0.06860057 46.2595576
Feb12 92.0419644 68.2598094 23.3350434 90.9836899 0.01149774 1.11994489
Mar12 99.5746895 69.9384865 27.5671841 94.6775001 0.04918107 23.9824647
Abr12 104.090733 73.3125941 26.6194516 94.247479 0.09456417 96.8896444
May12 101.071553 75.3379152 23.2373698 95.163102 0.0584581 34.9097914
Jun12 72.8994361 77.0490868 -6.25872006 67.9074506 0.0684777 24.9199189
Jul12 46.2379425 75.1991858 -26.6811858 51.6346419 0.11671582 29.1243647
Ago12 36.2801703 74.7906906 -38.0070379 37.4718697 0.03284713 1.42014754
Sep12 28.9280348 71.3489582 -38.1788869 38.9685696 0.34708665 100.812339
Oct12 47.5267923 69.4215779 -19.5192326 53.1495214 0.11830652 31.6150833
Nov12 86.5394679 77.5207677 -0.96378997 62.9117744 0.27302795 558.267899
Dic12 80.1518367 73.3728697 11.8913735 92.2524621 0.15097128 146.425136
Ene13 104.428632 74.2918259 29.0041659 101.74777 0.02567172 7.18702378
Feb13 91.2601779 72.1094274 21.8406209 97.6268693 0.06976418 40.5347587
Mar13 98.8024363 71.8097743 27.3619932 99.6766115 0.00884771 0.76418225
Abr13 100.492398 72.5169961 27.1037298 98.429226 0.02053062 4.25667698
May13 101.681942 74.548873 24.6287209 95.7543659 0.05829527 35.1361598
Jun13 92.5604409 82.8683338 -0.56187349 68.2901529 0.26221016 589.046877
Jul13 84.947008 92.7267471 -19.9305239 56.187148 0.33856237 827.129548
Ago13 43.5206679 88.8878974 -40.6357343 54.7197092 0.25732696 125.418527
Sep13 36.0669078 83.8688223 -41.6157564 50.7090106 0.40597056 214.391174
Oct13 60.7682963 82.641213 -20.3598521 64.3495897 0.05893358 12.825662
Nov13 52.5012401 72.640091 -7.8121734 81.677423 0.55572369 851.249651
Dic13 95.0983648 76.262253 14.3716906 84.5314645 0.11111548 111.659382
Ene14 95.277471 72.8382038 26.6595088 105.266419 0.10484061 99.7790774
Feb14 79.0616053 67.4848744 18.174867 94.6788247 0.19753228 243.897544
Mar14 111.166484 73.0789739 31.1926173 94.8468676 0.14680338 266.329868
Abr14 104.760003 74.6479979 28.1781371 100.182704 0.0436932 20.9516714
May14 102.450737 75.7359999 25.3737428 99.2767188 0.03098092 10.0743931
Jun14 74.5293112 75.5149677 -0.71322784 75.1741265 0.00865183 0.41578674
Jul14 46.1404165 72.2777084 -22.1472745 55.5844439 0.20468015 89.1896535
Ago14 33.9099974 73.05515 -40.1033723 31.6419741 0.06688362 5.14392971
Sep14 44.1596258 77.4154391 -38.6299982 31.4393936 0.28805118 161.804306
Oct14 62.1908485 79.1757234 -19.1544772 57.055587 0.08257262 26.3709108
Nov14 75.135926 80.4688327 -6.92670194 71.36355 0.05020735 14.2308208
Dic14 104.356401 83.7307212 16.6053063 94.8405233 0.09118634 90.5519336
Ene15 113.241609 84.7081277 27.3287991 110.39023 0.02517961 8.13036342
Feb15 104.738722 85.344241 18.6104529 102.882995 0.01771768 3.44372429
Mar15 112.491719 83.9576327 30.2431213 116.536858 0.03595944 16.3631555
Abr15 111.488842 83.7358765 28.0262869 112.13577 0.00580262 0.41851526
May15 111.115458 84.4234454 25.8445635 109.109619 0.01805184 4.02338832
Jun15 88.9198612 86.2092267 0.50960645 83.7102175 0.05858808 27.1403867
Jul15 54.3383233 82.8761245 -24.4296545 64.0619522 0.17894606 94.548958
Ago15 38.5257625 81.4203254 -41.1002475 42.7727522 0.11023765 18.0369216
Sep15 31.0556582 77.3978713 -41.3844199 42.7903272 0.37785929 137.702455
Oct15 45.684378 73.0928444 -22.1023939 58.2433941 0.27490833 157.728884
Nov15 81.9939059 78.5183448 -3.21152806 66.1661425 0.19303585 250.518095
Dic15 96.4835593 78.9844993 16.9245109 95.1236511 0.01409471 1.84935034
Ene16 88.7563682 72.9662686 23.2077463 106.313298 0.19781037 308.245799
Feb16 106.946817 78.2348879 22.2182007 91.5767215 0.14371719 236.239843
Mar16 114.077074 80.1541565 31.5573626 108.478009 0.04908142 31.3495284
Abr16 105.684175 79.2984763 27.44035 108.180443 0.02362008 6.23135526
May16 90.4602162 74.2654427 22.3981358 105.14304 0.1623125 215.585309
Jun16 61.6249882 69.7578152 -2.57704334 74.7750491 0.21338845 172.924102
Jul16 36.5272572 66.7410083 -26.4954478 45.3281607 0.24094071 77.4559017
Ago16 26.2387832 66.9460007 -40.9598766 25.6407608 0.02279154 0.35763074
Sep16 27.1262522 67.4823447 -41.0171522 25.5615808 0.05768108 2.4481967
Oct16 35.4156762 64.0667531 -24.4412596 45.3799507 0.28135209 99.2867673
Nov16 21.6314162 50.621468 -12.4183418 60.855225 1.81327974 1538.50718
Dic16 53.8177802 45.9156643 13.7021576 67.5459789 0.25508668 188.46344
Ene17 110.74129 60.1815979 32.9765086 69.1234106 0.37581176 1732.04789
Feb17 103.190132 67.3081868 27.0982145 82.3997986 0.20147599 432.237973
Mar17 112.827852 72.0942376 34.8346659 98.8655494 0.12374872 194.945898
Abr17 120.265699 79.2005262 32.306463 99.5345877 0.17237759 429.778986
May17 136.872906 91.2919646 30.6778875 101.598662 0.25771532 1244.2723
Jun17 110.459822 98.7457636 2.52703136 88.7149213 0.19685801 472.840705
Jul17 64.5703034 96.11318 -28.2981397 72.2503159 0.11894032 58.9825908
Ago17 48.2990099 93.7636395 -42.5687516 55.1533034 0.14191375 46.9813395
Sep17 41.2965814 89.8387976 -43.7047329 52.7464873 0.27726038 131.100344
Oct17 82.2979807 95.631995 -20.4743009 65.397538 0.20535671 285.624963
Nov17 66.8784297 90.0325455 -16.2526293 83.2136532 0.2442525 266.839529
Dic17 100.227491 88.8303303 12.8789269 103.734703 0.03499251 12.3005337
Ene18 109.273717 84.5341794 30.0346698 121.806839 0.11469476 157.079153
Feb18 113.283968 85.1003122 27.4858805 111.632394 0.01457906 2.72769759
Mar18 124.816759 86.7737076 35.9805427 119.934978 0.03911158 23.8317883
Abr18 113.388199 84.8225923 30.9704142 119.080171 0.05019897 32.3985367
May18 100.765048 79.7715253 27.2191112 115.50048 0.14623555 217.13296
Jun18 79.5191434 78.8187875 1.87463322 82.2985566 0.03495276 7.72513806
Jul18 45.7922523 77.1979703 -29.408013 50.5206478 0.10325754 22.3577242
Ago18 33.9769651 76.9743883 -42.7218519 34.6292187 0.01919694 0.42543477
Sep18 29.3467357 75.6296751 -44.6255407 33.2696554 0.13367482 15.3892991
Oct18 51.9875035 74.5437805 -21.2178798 55.1553742 0.06093523 10.0354046
Nov18 117.446207 94.8211735 -2.36745101 58.2911511 0.50367787 3499.32061
Dic18 109.248232 95.3518479 13.2423123 107.7001 0.01417077 2.39671171
125.386518
0.16401915 14.2033869
MAPE RMSE
SOLVER
 ALFA: GAMA:
0.05521847 0.27813285 Error Porcentual Absoluto Medio
componente componente Mean Absolute Percentage Error
básico estacional
L S Yestimado MAPE RMSE
1.45278879
1.36015732
1.48193521
1.03354669
1.29816513
0.68061638
0.50536284
0.40831444
0.35099457
1.07060046
1.22042903
56.7006867 1.13708912
56.4932871 1.42740756 82.3741222 0.07094159 29.7750074
56.631835 1.37599267 76.8397582 0.04252515 11.6468627
56.880097 1.51271591 83.9247104 0.07355072 44.3925682
58.7578681 1.19072986 58.7882361 0.37416211 1235.31232
58.7458155 1.29689767 76.2774153 0.00372861 0.08028842
60.6304736 0.78129641 39.9833643 0.36748633 539.636378
61.6470524 0.5450209 30.6403885 0.23291985 86.5605594
62.8935056 0.44682362 25.1713818 0.26802511 84.9518251
64.6274719 0.39580955 22.075279 0.3330164 121.482394
62.5715841 0.90320295 69.190201 1.35904695 1588.85745
61.4178556 1.11133002 76.3641778 0.50132058 650.224827
62.4924011 1.23013378 69.8375757 0.24060873 489.632114
62.7904029 1.45964591 89.2021256 0.07949392 59.3423656
62.6363944 1.3598924 86.3991339 0.04648354 14.7282921
62.4850194 1.49527637 94.7510706 0.04576982 17.197073
63.2990504 1.26360112 74.4027785 0.19089179 308.133989
63.5895262 1.32508991 82.092391 0.0767287 46.5439029
64.2420013 0.81905885 49.6822686 0.15670216 85.2296693
64.8695209 0.5701108 35.0132331 0.15030896 38.3629613
65.1623531 0.45637921 28.985234 0.07557297 5.61489125
65.640648 0.40953443 25.7918816 0.11733093 11.7542599
65.1843428 0.8731147 59.2868267 0.14402344 55.7074071
65.7815399 1.15934272 72.4413171 0.14230579 144.461747
65.6680186 1.2200139 80.9200942 0.03226107 6.39574483
65.6999703 1.46302404 95.8520547 0.00873467 0.713372
65.8187234 1.37156853 89.3448903 0.03169617 8.55322051
65.6112073 1.47277057 98.4171819 0.06055515 31.577484
66.6328604 1.35579972 82.9063953 0.21996561 546.58554
67.4936333 1.40551109 88.2945306 0.18959183 426.67697
69.5100168 0.93212697 55.2812576 0.35108579 894.556454
70.8496839 0.62141082 39.6284115 0.25872768 191.312597
72.6741441 0.5109022 32.3343228 0.31803465 227.379753
76.4727627 0.50634185 29.7625639 0.48628084 793.712988
77.692368 0.93833932 66.7694933 0.22409682 371.888271
77.9780526 1.17955548 90.0720811 0.06243464 35.9773013
77.9640958 1.21897456 95.1343079 0.00325191 0.09508941
77.2555853 1.39917312 114.063346 0.19699739 352.392575
76.9042257 1.34174778 105.96133 0.08975677 76.1675737
76.5779519 1.44290899 113.262281 0.08322758 75.7296143
76.6992655 1.36600471 103.824366 0.02788925 8.87239569
76.630519 1.39951066 107.801668 0.01649994 3.06197197
77.6148168 0.98838134 71.4293732 0.18871761 276.079692
78.9840106 0.67267381 48.2306873 0.24212241 237.42079
79.2108889 0.51786598 40.3531046 0.04944764 4.40649183
78.6163584 0.4881195 40.1077877 0.15730927 29.7212566
77.2140494 0.85724198 73.7688205 0.47717614 567.856425
76.1176531 1.09870178 91.0782548 0.3461672 548.533575
76.5649409 1.25286297 92.7854829 0.09618291 97.497797
76.1449964 1.36245154 107.127607 0.11028377 113.229094
75.6415538 1.29925064 102.16738 0.13602264 149.648696
75.1955592 1.40218263 109.143878 0.11954343 135.821427
75.0821969 1.35618987 102.717488 0.02806818 7.86454289
74.9988149 1.3921062 105.078335 0.02052459 4.46609938
74.6141248 0.96413122 74.127429 0.10240299 47.4135403
74.5455511 0.66972912 50.1909674 0.01692549 0.69783926
74.1137692 0.50350837 38.604605 0.11718844 16.3981523
74.6726133 0.5055037 36.1763758 0.12014813 24.4042246
73.2688225 0.77908173 64.0124988 0.51619131 474.944573
71.2394794 0.94976091 80.5005854 1.00639439 1630.42896
69.616798 1.11389263 89.2533057 0.70213925 1355.51695
69.3603557 1.33847985 94.8495137 0.07147837 40.0361881
69.3460251 1.29797293 90.1164867 0.00375574 0.11369577
68.9036783 1.3593451 97.2357918 0.13060773 126.172932
68.6335886 1.33079236 93.4464705 0.07641166 44.0036126
68.0058586 1.33095594 95.5452441 0.1985161 250.450475
67.1847646 0.90805774 65.5665715 0.27984666 205.536679
67.070184 0.66428434 44.9955931 0.03186989 1.93130711
66.8954872 0.49725096 33.770399 0.0495058 2.53755136
67.2745172 0.51905705 33.8159165 0.09306154 12.0400186
67.1312227 0.77116789 52.4123472 0.04012164 4.08748623
66.2008206 0.88623938 63.7586108 0.33510116 256.095069
66.717677 1.15495761 73.7406062 0.12387614 108.707045
67.1238382 1.37702172 89.3002661 0.09930084 96.9285739
67.3330193 1.31716224 87.1249247 0.05342172 24.1772788
67.659854 1.39059339 91.52881 0.08080246 64.7361772
68.2428095 1.38489122 90.0412167 0.13497375 197.388903
68.6677851 1.37015485 90.8281728 0.10134781 104.926835
69.3090279 0.94803799 62.3543135 0.14465301 111.199611
69.3254068 0.66503122 46.0409021 0.00426144 0.03882491
69.5261857 0.50408448 34.4721254 0.04983562 3.26902632
68.7644862 0.49169593 36.0880571 0.24751154 51.2659197
68.3705104 0.75002088 53.0289637 0.11576989 30.2738905
69.9871664 0.9836597 60.5926388 0.29982654 673.23794
69.9546378 1.15240188 80.8322105 0.00848856 0.4629085
70.2794302 1.40730604 96.3290556 0.07756088 65.6031419
70.2245441 1.31226319 92.5694114 0.01434616 1.71409212
70.2701554 1.39488875 97.6537866 0.01162572 1.3193963
70.3967841 1.39674603 97.3165215 0.03160315 10.0861889
70.6074549 1.38960947 96.4544949 0.05140979 27.3262045
72.0998019 1.04141948 66.9385494 0.27681255 656.481323
75.1718297 0.79436482 47.9486189 0.4355467 1368.88079
75.7883014 0.52359701 37.892953 0.12931132 31.6711742
75.6537756 0.48753519 37.2647997 0.03321305 1.43494486
75.9502085 0.76395149 56.7419113 0.06625799 16.2117764
74.7035504 0.90554185 74.7091595 0.422998 493.191684
75.1352664 1.18391254 86.088512 0.09474246 81.177447
74.7248143 1.37051979 105.738314 0.10979346 109.429232
73.9254424 1.24473654 98.0586228 0.2402812 360.886675
74.2440612 1.42337587 103.117768 0.07240236 64.7818201
74.2859631 1.40049528 103.700098 0.01011747 1.1234001
74.2550583 1.38685719 103.228478 0.00759136 0.60488011
74.1065241 1.03148614 77.330664 0.03758726 7.84757755
73.2218217 0.74869009 58.8676156 0.27583624 161.981598
72.7547685 0.50760138 38.3387273 0.13060248 19.6136484
73.7389019 0.51849959 35.4705101 0.19676606 75.5007307
74.1623117 0.78470744 56.3329436 0.09419239 34.3150499
74.6488489 0.93362855 67.1570767 0.1061922 63.6620368
75.3941058 1.23960387 88.3777087 0.15311655 255.318615
75.7934819 1.40488625 103.329114 0.08753404 98.2575663
76.2546561 1.28056066 94.3429164 0.09925466 108.072778
76.4079965 1.43696954 108.539038 0.03513753 15.623685
76.5846254 1.41586624 107.009038 0.04018164 20.0686443
76.7798617 1.40363921 106.211938 0.04412995 24.0445035
77.3003354 1.0645368 79.1973634 0.10934 94.5269634
77.0395675 0.73663024 57.873995 0.06506773 12.5009738
76.9765137 0.5056227 39.105391 0.01504522 0.33596912
76.033312 0.48789064 39.9122906 0.28518579 78.4399373
75.0495975 0.73576025 59.6639057 0.30600236 195.427193
75.754916 0.97499498 70.0684472 0.14544323 142.216565
75.8697302 1.24853094 93.9060869 0.02671411 6.64336425
75.168852 1.34254936 106.588341 0.20090922 317.979241
75.6297477 1.31769789 96.2582743 0.0999426 114.244948
75.8372318 1.45567848 108.677644 0.04733142 29.153849
75.7712753 1.41000116 107.375376 0.01600241 2.86016111
75.1459614 1.34805554 106.355533 0.17571611 252.661098
74.1930593 0.99947217 79.9956417 0.29810397 337.480908
72.8343484 0.67123597 54.6528513 0.49622105 328.537161
71.6780543 0.46680695 36.8267002 0.40352165 112.103987
70.7901958 0.45877057 34.9710518 0.28919585 61.5408812
69.5391998 0.67277166 52.0846119 0.47066546 277.853416
66.9244387 0.79371536 67.8003705 2.13434728 2131.57234
65.6091593 1.12941986 83.5572325 0.5525953 884.435022
66.5410629 1.43202624 88.0835345 0.20460079 513.373884
67.1909763 1.37835193 87.681018 0.15029649 240.532622
67.7607092 1.51392341 97.8084582 0.13311779 225.582196
68.7289122 1.50452595 95.5426783 0.20557001 611.227761
70.5403358 1.51279195 92.6503909 0.32309181 1955.63086
72.7478499 1.14380108 70.5031024 0.3617308 1596.53944
74.0426281 0.72709432 48.8309738 0.24375493 247.726498
75.6673844 0.51450671 34.5636136 0.28438257 188.661113
76.4596798 0.48139353 34.7139691 0.15939848 43.3307846
78.99239 0.77542362 51.4399056 0.37495543 952.220798
79.2832575 0.80757263 62.6974729 0.06251577 17.4803992
79.80558 1.16459697 89.5440855 0.10659157 114.135164
79.6123972 1.41548995 114.283684 0.04584787 25.0997758
79.7546173 1.39004865 109.733901 0.03133777 12.602976
79.9032251 1.52732267 120.742382 0.03264287 16.6005493
79.6526166 1.4819994 120.216476 0.06022034 46.6253591
78.9323494 1.44709925 120.497837 0.19582971 389.382988
78.4127149 1.10772982 90.2829067 0.13536065 115.858601
77.5605327 0.68907698 57.0134397 0.24504554 125.915046
76.924273 0.49425501 39.9054144 0.17448437 35.146511
76.0428634 0.45484021 37.0308476 0.26183872 59.0455746
75.5459601 0.75115199 58.9654326 0.1342232 48.6914939
79.4049126 0.99434085 61.0088498 0.48053793 3185.17527
80.2002158 1.21955512 92.4747205 0.15353577 281.35069
113.5226
0.18695987 15.7011201
MAPE RMSE
SOLVER
 con E sin Y
160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Ene05 Jul05 Ene06 Jul06 Ene07 Jul07 Ene08 Jul08 Ene09 Jul09 Ene10 Jul10 Ene11 Jul11 Ene12 Jul12 Ene13 Jul13 Ene14 Jul14 Ene15 Jul15 Ene16 Jul16 Ene17 Jul17 Ene18 Jul18
 ALFA: Beta GAMA:
0.26328919 0.00346314 0.41035799 0≤𝛼≤1

componente componente
básico Tendencia estacional
AÑO Yt L B S Yestimado
Ene05 680.122668 -87.3766097
Feb05 546.117718 -221.381559
Mar05 883.078328 115.57905
Abr05 1919.60579 1152.10651
May05 599.667611 -167.831667
Jun05 620.831131 -146.668147
Jul05 606.811308 -160.68797
Ago05 607.949078 -159.5502
Sep05 632.982615 -134.516663
Oct05 665.669441 -101.829836
Nov05 706.651225 -60.8480531
Dic05 740.504426 767.499278 0 -26.9948522
Ene06 1208.85737 906.709411 0.48210445 72.4679093 680.122668
Feb06 796.693599 936.38598 0.58320902 -187.859753 685.809956
Mar06 1150.19984 962.679801 0.67224852 145.10061 1052.54824
Abr06 3438.19954 1311.61545 1.87833411 1551.99116 2115.45856
May06 1070.68155 1293.75221 1.80996624 -190.49943 1145.66212
Jun06 1068.07304 1274.28289 1.73627303 -171.101559 1148.89403
Jul06 1447.16559 1363.38757 2.03884223 -60.3693988 1115.33119
Ago06 1112.79983 1340.92041 1.95397446 -187.688603 1205.87621
Sep06 1081.57324 1309.4934 1.83837138 -172.845532 1208.35772
Oct06 1119.52756 1287.64249 1.75633204 -129.030453 1209.50193
Nov06 1096.24929 1254.56527 1.63569852 -100.844796 1228.55077
Dic06 1128.08701 1229.5774 1.54349732 -57.5646922 1229.20612
Ene07 1414.61702 1260.35343 1.64473372 106.033422 1303.58881
Feb07 1003.33921 1243.3575 1.58017845 -209.263426 1074.13841
Mar07 1542.87959 1285.17914 1.71954034 191.306853 1390.03829
Abr07 4283.23849 1667.18007 3.03650876 1988.63966 2838.88984
May07 1273.69265 1615.97255 2.848654 -252.783761 1479.71715
Jun07 1334.16326 1588.92304 2.7451124 -205.431377 1447.71965
Jul07 1393.26704 1555.32589 2.619254 -102.098478 1531.29875
Ago07 1464.11105 1582.65602 2.70483128 -159.314961 1370.25654
Sep07 1323.70888 1561.97908 2.62385687 -199.693066 1412.51532
Oct07 1463.83244 1572.04348 2.64962452 -120.487038 1435.57248
Nov07 1420.89683 1560.75155 2.60134295 -116.852831 1473.84831
Dic07 1383.58599 1531.17837 2.48991802 -94.5082738 1505.7882
Ene08 1675.60968 1543.12247 2.52265918 116.888945 1639.70171
Feb08 1371.66097 1554.93378 2.55482709 -198.59797 1336.3817
Mar08 1845.99358 1583.07982 2.6434531 220.691319 1748.79546
Abr08 2814.10293 1385.55503 1.95024207 1758.80153 3574.36293
May08 1550.5722 1496.99426 2.32941799 -127.06579 1134.72151
Jun08 1501.48636 1553.98095 2.51870387 -142.672548 1293.8923
Jul08 1581.53104 1589.97157 2.63462188 -63.665193 1454.40118
Ago08 1482.1209 1605.46252 2.67914515 -144.553012 1433.29124
Sep08 1443.80404 1617.45037 2.71138252 -189.004582 1408.4486
Oct08 1512.84124 1623.62836 2.72338786 -116.506596 1499.67471
Nov08 1278.13622 1565.43645 2.51242955 -186.797281 1509.49891
Dic08 1342.22217 1533.40048 2.39278355 -134.177596 1473.44061
Ene09 1607.30375 1523.84561 2.35140711 103.170347 1652.68221
Feb09 1134.14409 1475.26242 2.17501337 -257.082335 1327.59905
Mar09 1754.34035 1492.23734 2.22626755 237.684939 1698.12875
Abr09 2323.98093 1249.79312 1.37893892 1477.86482 3253.26514
May09 1122.39821 1250.72234 1.37738151 -127.58216 1124.10627
Jun09 1048.95766 1236.17875 1.32224492 -160.953401 1109.42718
Jul09 1112.93954 1221.46767 1.26671923 -82.0750583 1173.83581
Ago09 1189.08001 1251.9328 1.36783747 -111.026675 1078.18138
Sep09 1218.97906 1294.027 1.50887864 -142.241564 1064.29605
Oct09 1345.90132 1339.47148 1.66103387 -66.0586495 1179.02928
Nov09 1273.90329 1372.61349 1.77005696 -150.650044 1154.33524
Dic09 1408.0742 1418.58144 1.92312055 -83.4284795 1240.20595
Ene10 1959.0917 1535.1451 2.32013699 234.803446 1523.67491
Feb10 1556.13518 1610.06783 2.57157008 -173.718241 1280.3829
Mar10 2183.65025 1700.40051 2.87549925 338.454415 1850.32434
Abr10 3191.84274 1706.09371 2.88525733 1481.10017 3181.14083
May10 1535.5578 1696.91005 2.84346097 -141.439987 1581.3968
Jun10 1431.1713 1671.41601 2.74532418 -193.491222 1538.80011
Jul10 1533.59462 1658.76111 2.69199103 -99.7579709 1592.08627
Ago10 1433.17722 1630.58265 2.58508229 -146.472889 1550.42643
Sep10 1430.34392 1617.21708 2.52984292 -160.556497 1490.92617
Oct10 1626.60094 1638.94404 2.59632525 -44.0160454 1553.68828
Nov10 1582.2298 1665.58907 2.6796093 -123.036736 1490.89032
Dic10 1673.05849 1691.4956 2.76004744 -56.7587508 1584.8402
Ene11 2277.48935 1785.99357 3.07774888 340.139196 1929.05909
Feb11 1747.31244 1823.81479 3.19807046 -133.824923 1615.35307
Mar11 3146.846 2085.39927 4.09289927 635.140083 2165.46728
Abr11 3869.26594 2168.1297 4.36523219 1571.39373 3570.59234
May11 1933.2288 2146.73837 4.27603355 -171.014313 2031.05495
Jun11 1938.67308 2146.05137 4.25884588 -199.189894 1957.52318
Jul11 2059.22941 2152.59482 4.26675779 -97.1347324 2050.55225
Ago11 2195.79625 2205.67739 4.43581386 -90.421371 2010.38869
Sep11 2114.20774 2227.13512 4.49476318 -141.011509 2049.5567
Oct11 2173.10781 2227.8106 4.48153646 -48.4014388 2187.61384
Nov11 1899.41845 2177.04434 4.29020549 -186.473628 2109.2554
Dic11 1989.82277 2145.85553 4.16733662 -97.4966332 2124.57579
Ene12 2729.95436 2213.15759 4.38598113 412.632046 2490.16206
Feb12 2137.30347 2231.65187 4.43484019 -117.625417 2083.71864
Mar12 3673.27575 2447.25753 5.16615471 877.611642 2871.2268
Abr12 4691.83717 2628.30607 5.77526035 1773.34623 4023.81742
May12 2192.96408 2562.96614 5.52897838 -252.670525 2463.06702
Jun12 2005.5129 2472.71253 5.19726968 -309.169832 2369.30523
Jul12 2416.30545 2487.26457 5.22966656 -86.3933598 2380.77507
Ago12 2118.75092 2417.89863 4.97133139 -176.07389 2402.07286
Sep12 2108.862 2377.32187 4.81359187 -193.310961 2281.85845
Oct12 2274.30978 2366.4897 4.75940838 -66.3662875 2333.73402
Nov12 2295.82561 2400.4874 4.86066476 -152.90149 2184.77548
Dic12 2423.18462 2435.71405 4.96582646 -62.6296633 2307.85144
Ene13 2836.54843 2436.26623 4.95054137 407.564187 2853.31192
Feb13 2368.81738 2453.12429 4.99177882 -103.952904 2323.59135
Mar13 3181.76821 2417.5802 4.85139733 831.067349 3335.72771
Abr13 4018.36246 2375.72005 4.68962861 1719.71088 4195.77783
May13 2218.66601 2404.34974 4.77253644 -225.181957 2127.73915
Jun13 2072.03781 2401.77265 4.74708366 -317.608847 2099.95244
Jul13 2263.40594 2391.58586 4.69536553 -103.540807 2320.12638
Ago13 2205.94549 2392.52624 4.68236147 -180.385461 2220.20733
Sep13 2317.57689 2427.13912 4.7860151 -158.943997 2203.89764
Oct13 2358.93147 2430.18022 4.77997221 -68.3698423 2365.55884
Nov13 2380.08239 2460.76877 4.86935098 -123.267442 2282.0587
Dic13 2499.93166 2491.15695 4.95772632 -33.3283074 2403.00845
Ene14 2872.22539 2487.83332 4.9290468 398.055325 2903.67886
Feb14 2421.15877 2501.27959 4.95854316 -94.1732159 2388.80946
Mar14 4322.85766 2765.72337 5.85717736 1129.01472 3337.30548
Abr14 4209.0615 2697.27246 5.5998379 1634.38849 4491.29142
May14 2125.64959 2610.18377 5.27884439 -331.609212 2477.69034
Jun14 2015.82494 2541.20748 5.0216883 -402.870437 2297.85377
Jul14 2180.94605 2477.31524 4.78302961 -182.669475 2442.68836
Ago14 3569.06057 2815.77724 5.93860723 202.752983 2301.71281
Sep14 2272.46004 2718.95097 5.58271786 -276.941176 2662.77185
Oct14 2294.70066 2629.36433 5.2531329 -177.645643 2656.16384
Nov14 3473.38257 2887.91024 6.13032171 167.569584 2511.35003
Dic14 2338.85624 2756.64151 5.65448931 -191.093294 2860.71225
Ene15 3081.15753 2741.44513 5.58227978 374.113839 3160.35133
Feb15 2388.09057 2677.31801 5.34086623 -174.215274 2652.85419
Mar15 3453.50615 2588.35726 5.01428635 1020.73527 3811.67359
Abr15 3574.87056 2421.4728 4.41897661 1437.0101 4227.76003
May15 1811.009 2351.30891 4.16068555 -417.247107 2094.28257
Jun15 1845.48614 2327.26789 4.06301906 -435.252326 1952.59916
Jul15 2012.89393 2295.5848 3.93922518 -223.714052 2148.66144
Ago15 2258.2006 2235.26134 3.7166744 128.964984 2502.277
Sep15 2014.89382 2252.89469 3.76486981 -260.961708 1962.03684
Oct15 2103.98586 2263.2344 3.78763943 -170.096246 2079.01392
Nov15 2038.20392 2162.65744 3.42621001 47.7355716 2434.59162
Dic15 2164.50552 2215.98095 3.59901142 -133.799988 1974.99036
Ene16 2948.94679 2313.11423 3.92293388 481.512204 2593.6938
Feb16 2441.58744 2395.6989 4.19535065 -83.8939179 2142.82189
Mar16 4061.24603 2568.56166 4.77946981 1214.40335 3420.62952
 Abr16 4297.2181 2648.87008 5.04103727 1523.73431 4010.35123
May16 2014.4852 2595.41383 4.83845289 -484.41513 2236.66401
Jun16 2079.20969 2577.66464 4.76022865 -461.188026 2164.99996
Jul16 2010.82061 2490.82913 4.44301963 -328.886536 2358.71081
Ago16 2039.55922 2341.33278 3.90990572 -47.7920172 2624.23714
Sep16 1927.21325 2303.88845 3.76669015 -308.445661 2084.28097
Oct16 2007.83475 2273.50017 3.64840665 -209.313822 2137.55889
Nov16 2000.56139 2191.7579 3.35268662 -50.3121177 2324.88415
Dic16 3172.75316 2487.7414 4.36610865 202.205951 2061.3106
Ene17 2942.2805 2483.85623 4.33753331 472.037885 2973.61971
Feb17 2388.50482 2484.03511 4.32313128 -88.6689955 2404.29985
Mar17 3479.01401 2429.44792 4.11911648 1146.76107 3702.76159
Abr17 3783.82761 2387.89327 3.96094177 1471.29057 3957.30134
May17 1958.42862 2405.27921 4.00743443 -469.00022 1907.43909
Jun17 1875.56813 2390.19015 3.94130056 -483.115093 1948.09862
Jul17 2000.00578 2376.95469 3.88181501 -348.609315 2065.24492
Ago17 2009.66101 2295.69313 3.58695142 -145.555746 2333.04449
Sep17 1964.97094 2292.47051 3.56336889 -316.264584 1990.83442
Oct17 2256.97675 2340.86063 3.71861028 -157.842641 2086.72006
Nov17 2355.73551 2360.7632 3.77465765 -31.7292899 2294.26712
Dic17 3185.86962 2527.54699 4.33918142 389.377073 2566.74381
Ene18 3293.37079 2608.09437 4.60310122 559.542022 3003.92406
Feb18 2640.79144 2643.4399 4.7095666 -53.3697824 2524.02848
Mar18 4028.18919 2709.56922 4.92227191 1217.28474 3794.91053
Abr18 5398.16242 3033.69813 6.02772983 1837.81153 4185.78205
May18 2299.76615 2968.38516 5.78066684 -550.915384 2570.72564
Jun18 2282.13896 2919.16161 5.59017945 -546.272288 2491.05073
Jul18 2390.97323 2875.99873 5.42134068 -404.588787 2576.14248
Ago18 2268.75234 2758.43453 4.99542431 -286.770783 2735.86433
Sep18 2228.77575 2705.93033 4.79629494 -382.287079 2447.16537
Oct18 2397.09114 2669.70806 4.65424181 -204.941179 2552.88399
Nov18 2368.94369 2602.30286 4.40468974 -114.469721 2642.63301
Dic18 2697.48494 2528.08948 4.13242421 299.105862 2996.08462
Ene19 3479.10435 2634.20445 4.48560425 676.640905 3091.76393
Pronóstico Feb-19 2585.32027
 ALFA: Beta GAMA: 0≤𝛼≤1
0.06091503 0.0 0.42998327 Error Porcentual Absoluto Medio
componente componente Mean Absolute Percentage Error
básico Tendencia estacional
L B S Yestimado MAPE
MAPE RMSE 0.88615415
0.7115547
1.15059174
2.50111738
0.78132661
0.80890126
0.79063437
0.79211681
0.82473382
0.86732256
0.92071907
0.96482752
767.499278 0 1.57505995
0.43738386 279560.388 803.844977 0 1.15175041 680.122668 0.43738386
0.13917978 12295.1822 823.082368 0 0.8217957 571.979671 0.28205816
0.08489968 9535.83541 833.838563 0 1.24897697 947.031772 0.17663719
0.38471909 1749643.7 866.783048 0 3.13125928 2085.52813 0.39342435
0.07003069 5622.08583 897.457115 0 0.95834657 677.240663 0.3674677
0.07566991 6532.03279 923.220681 0 0.95853445 725.954188 0.3203141
0.22929954 110114.07 978.480648 0 1.08661687 729.930001 0.49561404
0.08364163 8663.21368 1004.45253 0 0.92788412 775.070968 0.30349471
0.11722227 16074.3033 1023.15152 0 0.9246473 828.405977 0.23407316
0.08036816 8095.38732 1039.45447 0 0.95749487 887.402403 0.20734207
0.12068558 17503.6811 1048.66423 0 0.97431983 957.045556 0.12698183
0.08963769 10225.0742 1056.00734 0 1.00930038 1011.78011 0.10310101
0.07848641 12327.2642 1046.39056 0 1.47910557 1663.27487 0.1757775
0.07056358 5012.5273 1035.71535 0 1.07305913 1205.18076 0.20116981
0.09906236 23360.4629 1086.98959 0 1.07875815 851.146418 0.44833905
0.33720949 2086143.02 1229.67744 0 2.20966461 1357.62496 0.68303774
0.1617537 42446.0946 1179.54982 0 2.24917148 3850.43889 2.02305183
0.08511431 12895.0536 1192.50043 0 1.02733662 1130.41752 0.15271424
0.09907054 19052.7533 1208.4016 0 1.04214426 1143.05274 0.17958818
0.06410341 8808.66883 1216.86888 0 1.13673663 1313.06956 0.10316259
0.0670891 7886.58395 1229.64396 0 0.99178546 1129.11331 0.14700783
0.01930546 798.625397 1251.17629 0 1.0301298 1136.98697 0.22328066
0.03726624 2803.85908 1265.35712 0 1.02862559 1197.99488 0.15687413
0.08832282 14933.3805 1274.78044 0 1.02206197 1232.86253 0.10893682
0.02142979 1289.38221 1298.25643 0 1.13028098 1286.63638 0.23213837
0.0257201 1244.62644 1275.66316 0 1.30545583 1920.25831 0.39995112
0.05265355 9447.47468 1302.74879 0 1.22094747 1368.862 0.25846871
0.2701607 577995.279 1382.29783 0 1.49027667 1405.35088 0.50060431
0.26819176 172931.799 1340.84059 0 1.75678619 3054.4146 0.96986286
0.13825903 43095.2904 1299.82848 0 1.77875707 3015.78041 1.00853001
0.08038404 16162.0019 1314.42489 0 1.10295984 1335.36139 0.15565275
0.03294581 2384.33653 1320.98904 0 1.07647152 1369.82036 0.07577016
0.0244877 1250.00686 1317.891 0 1.11902333 1501.61663 0.04004186
0.00870318 173.357512 1330.52968 0 1.05423466 1307.06514 0.13601963
0.18101567 53528.6947 1325.06091 0 1.00194739 1370.61827 0.07235696
0.09776208 17218.277 1323.83095 0 1.02229058 1362.99156 0.01547388
0.02823266 2059.2051 1338.98526 0 1.09873979 1353.03727 0.15819442
0.17057352 37424.8186 1318.54416 0 1.01412864 1513.42958 0.33442443
0.03204145 3159.74434 1320.08583 0 1.31556193 1721.30116 0.01883283
0.3998674 863569.145 1355.61991 0 1.43309404 1611.75546 0.30646786
0.00152179 2.91744179 1318.92028 0 1.21539743 2020.24872 0.79993936
0.05764725 3656.56308 1274.94991 0 1.35516376 2317.06094 1.20891751
0.0547166 3708.35548 1235.39984 0 1.40128201 2267.82616 1.03769035
0.09326423 12298.506 1225.81676 0 1.04580257 1362.59641 0.14592492
0.12689554 23926.8315 1220.12529 0 1.0431861 1319.55683 0.08250984
0.12398534 27846.2766 1219.06666 0 1.11258179 1365.34867 0.01444931
0.0938596 14296.5199 1218.41494 0 1.05049671 1285.18232 0.00885392
0.11921832 28179.7479 1229.80133 0 1.06344072 1220.78768 0.13300899
0.22225442 189587.783 1271.62397 0 1.24516437 1257.21432 0.35826673
0.17720329 76039.3179 1280.43636 0 1.14886574 1397.18385 0.10214493
0.1526462 111106.16 1333.60249 0 1.28212797 1298.52718 0.40534104
0.00335289 114.530822 1400.15933 0 1.73009432 1754.43667 0.45033737
0.0298517 2101.21443 1380.13893 0 1.29529171 2006.55999 0.30673036
0.0752033 11583.9607 1367.79722 0 1.14270253 1677.41731 0.17205908
0.03814023 3421.27305 1353.41336 0 1.25969338 1853.58922 0.20865657
0.08181068 13747.3768 1333.27169 0 1.26095723 1896.5138 0.32329329
0.04235502 3670.20892 1335.36888 0 1.05668981 1394.33897 0.02517224
0.04482517 5316.25663 1349.00736 0 1.11309711 1393.03825 0.14358942
0.05772832 8342.89951 1353.46129 0 1.13685134 1500.88103 0.051414
0.05272876 7782.46783 1368.03061 0 1.12465674 1421.80664 0.15017518
0.15298875 121403.643 1415.15403 0 1.29817599 1454.81946 0.36121789
0.07552133 17413.2746 1414.43063 0 1.240943 1762.09937 0.00846267
0.31186106 963104.191 1495.12226 0 1.55987636 1624.99089 0.48361283
0.07719128 89205.917 1587.87909 0 1.77859656 1916.93807 0.50457319
0.05060246 9569.95393 1559.22059 0 1.5193055 2747.18058 0.4210323
0.0097232 355.326343 1555.41262 0 1.27427097 2019.6455 0.04176693
0.00421379 75.2931899 1570.43773 0 1.21517319 1777.37394 0.13687425
0.08443751 34375.9641 1580.95665 0 1.31525158 1978.27002 0.09906485
0.03057932 4179.75633 1586.78697 0 1.29166905 1993.51872 0.05708475
0.00667525 210.424961 1615.40101 0 1.1807631 1676.74161 0.22841305
0.11047431 44031.5451 1620.94583 0 1.13833682 1798.0982 0.05334278
0.06772112 18158.3774 1628.82501 0 1.17330508 1842.77443 0.07390022
0.08783748 57500.3489 1677.4682 0 1.34083886 1831.86903 0.32897449
0.02507123 2871.33382 1675.57505 0 1.28845328 2177.64894 0.01887681
0.21834706 643282.518 1753.81998 0 1.60793367 2079.29314 0.43394036
0.14237914 446250.382 1830.20782 0 1.9914411 2735.74233 0.41691448
0.12316797 72955.5943 1793.82733 0 1.53948678 3255.20132 0.48438424
0.18139616 132344.86 1764.96531 0 1.35461536 2725.37173 0.35894001
0.01470442 1262.40789 1772.96104 0 1.31236465 2249.04405 0.06922196
0.13372121 80271.3219 1771.17126 0 1.20703345 2154.45473 0.01685135
0.08203309 29927.7738 1760.95089 0 1.26465048 2329.5358 0.10464118
0.02612847 3531.24025 1760.93882 0 1.29161035 2274.56577 0.00011256
0.04837046 12332.1313 1772.11178 0 1.23011134 2079.25157 0.09433383
0.04759571 13301.7429 1793.83374 0 1.22971017 2017.26008 0.16751697
0.00590982 281.014765 1831.82872 0 1.33462362 2104.71424 0.25800166
0.01909224 2045.39332 1827.85946 0 1.32153808 2456.18712 0.03688328
0.04838803 23703.5301 1866.94184 0 1.46724642 2355.11152 0.25981047
0.04415116 31476.2109 1905.44885 0 1.8233321 3001.91864 0.25294976
0.04098267 8267.69383 1857.24385 0 1.64881333 3794.58914 0.7103021
0.01347206 779.226356 1826.09701 0 1.36542712 2859.20235 0.37989873
0.02505977 3217.20773 1816.64224 0 1.30788173 2473.65905 0.09289235
0.00646518 203.400169 1808.37311 0 1.27258527 2384.09706 0.08075973
0.04905091 12922.9737 1815.17654 0 1.23702231 2182.76684 0.05816853
0.00280948 43.9220505 1818.22879 0 1.2787231 2295.56387 0.02686284
0.041185 9608.64348 1819.72097 0 1.29863101 2348.44313 0.01329335
0.03877034 9394.10849 1832.66906 0 1.28772136 2238.4594 0.10459176
0.01095091 989.320945 1863.31077 0 1.36375885 2253.65178 0.21536388
0.01336109 1046.47803 1860.31392 0 1.32037182 2486.81857 0.02711916
0.22798627 971313.096 1946.25082 0 1.70834349 2458.4757 0.43128461
0.06705293 79653.7303 2002.44067 0 1.74016507 2855.62955 0.32155195
0.16561561 123932.686 1951.47698 0 1.5076898 3651.11435 0.71764639
0.1399074 79540.2583 1907.07689 0 1.39435357 3217.62126 0.5961809
0.12001319 68509.0334 1888.20456 0 1.27496287 2603.9745 0.19396557
0.35509281 1606170.33 1939.41471 0 1.53680285 2469.54825 0.30806771
0.17175739 152343.31 1930.05139 0 1.2316611 2468.07059 0.08607877
0.15752084 130655.631 1925.48083 0 1.21755795 2387.51663 0.04044796
0.27697281 925506.619 1973.65299 0 1.48561038 2462.15683 0.29113572
0.22312445 272333.702 1963.13685 0 1.25251799 2563.04697 0.09585486
0.02570261 6271.65784 1989.30496 0 1.40000718 2527.97326 0.17953781
0.11086833 70099.7765 1974.79525 0 1.29733774 2712.93225 0.13602569
0.10371125 128283.92 2013.8272 0 1.49001103 2607.464 0.24498064
0.18263304 426264.671 2018.62533 0 1.73526027 3440.30859 0.03764107
0.15641754 80243.9152 1959.05565 0 1.38941245 3512.74128 0.93965976
0.05804054 11473.198 1914.28269 0 1.2739387 2953.64822 0.60047163
0.06744891 18432.8168 1885.61126 0 1.25381289 2669.18691 0.32604449
0.10808447 59573.2919 1878.64125 0 1.24360695 2404.08435 0.06460177
0.02623314 2793.8609 1844.06912 0 1.34581796 2887.10122 0.43288008
0.01186887 623.59792 1835.79573 0 1.19486666 2271.2682 0.07950735
0.19447892 157123.209 1825.94054 0 1.17399671 2235.1877 0.09664576
0.08755587 35915.9959 1803.46533 0 1.36288545 2712.6362 0.25323598
0.12046775 126204.686 1837.02643 0 1.40420093 2258.87278 0.23400694
0.12236529 89260.8542 1831.35863 0 1.37128593 2571.85019 0.05335166
0.15773891 410389.515 1910.49259 0 1.65354485 2375.89067 0.4149848
0.06675641 82292.6018 1969.7949 0 1.78736385 2846.65504 0.33755863
0.11029061 49363.4227 1920.5218 0 1.440148 3418.10683 0.69676443
0.041261 7359.97085 1894.69048 0 1.26384662 2668.39691 0.28337076
0.17300907 121027.595 1875.42534 0 1.18719204 2413.71953 0.20036542
0.28666876 341848.27 1860.27335 0 1.1861177 2351.43248 0.15291209
0.08149992 24670.2681 1841.35454 0 1.1589093 2313.44887 0.20041146
0.06460898 16828.354 1820.06791 0 1.24148113 2478.12801 0.23422907
0.16211588 105185.255 1811.18826 0 1.15603519 2174.73847 0.0870641
0.35030855 1235304.56 1865.48395 0 1.40049904 2126.32906 0.32981579
0.01065133 982.146313 1883.35503 0 1.44861095 2542.44093 0.13589444
0.00661294 249.483035 1872.24509 0 1.34896645 2644.60888 0.10722359
0.0643135 50062.9795 1912.74139 0 1.56373646 2567.38336 0.26203707
0.0458461 30093.1362 1935.61933 0 1.78309706 3162.80368 0.16412585
0.02603594 2599.93294 1884.4561 0 1.46568915 3459.65601 0.7665469
0.03867121 5260.67183 1848.99672 0 1.25707089 2713.89568 0.44697259
0.03261947 4256.14446 1832.76155 0 1.18963407 2336.84825 0.16842075
0.16091444 104576.874 1824.23488 0 1.15040866 2175.83992 0.08269002
0.01316227 668.919776 1814.02588 0 1.1418691 2163.75728 0.10116503
0.07543573 28987.3428 1822.1565 0 1.19318764 2102.29147 0.0685365
0.02609308 3778.36356 1826.74728 0 1.26216255 2262.17292 0.03971694
0.19433495 383316.771 1883.34414 0 1.38632017 2111.78414 0.33714044
0.08788769 83779.4127 1911.8661 0 1.53899487 2637.62165 0.19911185
0.04421514 13633.5886 1906.45171 0 1.42133956 2769.55017 0.04875763
0.05791155 54418.934 1972.22035 0 1.64715883 2571.7394 0.3615644
0.22459131 1469866.16 2062.36679 0 2.01681993 3084.03287 0.42868839
0.11782046 73419.0476 2015.30338 0 1.50707114 3677.40016 0.59903221
0.09154209 43644.1265 1987.38835 0 1.32922165 2953.80829 0.2943157
0.07744514 34287.6509 1982.1881 0 1.23520983 2498.28804 0.04488332
0.20588937 218193.61 1977.61417 0 1.17139539 2358.0785 0.03937237
0.09798636 47694.027 1975.16314 0 1.14094567 2275.06447 0.02076867
0.06499246 24271.4093 1982.72309 0 1.1707297 2255.37777 0.05911889
0.11553222 74905.8434 1982.88559 0 1.19383582 2365.7607 0.00134363
0.11069559 89161.7683 1992.28523 0 1.30163617 2502.72393 0.07220096
0.11133337 150032.603 2023.79727 0 1.52940875 2761.9452 0.20613327
3114.61362
10.2% 363.377862 26%
 rror Porcentual Absoluto Medio
Mean Absolute Percentage Error

RMSE

279560.388
50496.3491
41277.2643
1829719.95
154795.732
117045.309
514426.891
114060.782
64093.6641
53882.0903
19377.6801
13527.2961
61830.7235
40740.0146
478494.777
8559214.52
6639621.19
41512.3243
62607.1945
22813.5309
37867.4373
106827.966
49685.2778
22717.5599
151300.23
300959.046
227654.541
1984582.33
2261541.96
2293086.48
60599.4963
12611.4114
3342.29583
42343.8051
8552.92922
431.367508
64651.4442
143857.483
1091.58791
507265.12
806135.535
1608085.93
1333763.1
30107.9435
10115.8879
378.199476
127.216555
35076.2416
492631.867
25265.5239
783442.847
2066136.21
221843.063
60637.0999
102396.545
214680.785
1296.35683
54551.5299
6617.62201
63127.4944
676785.747
218.653142
2316042.95
3811584.12
662517.497
6556.5332
79442.5088
47317.6628
14565.8395
246379.396
10265.7939
21623.2136
806557.273
1627.75697
2540780.56
3826306.99
1128347.95
518196.732
27976.3762
1274.76172
48696.9251
0.06553091
46904.3115
164774.73
535581.281
7633.47264
683361.279
1033158.04
2483533.71
619628.006
44206.3682
31737.9811
18173.7498
4015.45298
1001.04268
68367.7445
382633.315
4311.20873
3475920.11
1831778.05
2327042.72
1444314.39
178953.068
1208927.34
38263.489
8614.80363
1022577.51
50261.4866
306012.838
105522.117
715787.31
18106.9235
2895892.77
1228023.19
430720.475
21282.0685
760745.748
27983.3815
38802.6066
300447.249
476202.139
16968.3844
2840422.7
 2104133.2
1970153.68
347141.58
162327.543
97264.9318
149177.949
221175.754
30337.6555
1095003.4
159871.68
65589.2896
831070.446
385670.716
2253683.66
702793.076
113462.848
27615.4278
39516.0079
23927.5376
8753.95924
1153659.63
430006.941
16578.811
2121246
5355195.56
1897875.47
451139.689
11516.4696
7979.16344
2142.6454
20082.6808
10.131419
37931.8511
514317.247

809.40529
 Yt
6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
Ene05 Jul05 Ene06 Jul06 Ene07 Jul07 Ene08 Jul08 Ene09 Jul09 Ene10 Jul10 Ene11 Jul11 Ene12 Jul12 Ene13 Jul13 Ene14 Jul14 Ene15 Jul15 Ene16 Jul16 Ene17 Jul17 Ene18 Jul18 Ene19