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(e-mail: anatoly-klimenko@yandex.ru)




()

TOBAS,

.



(MIT)


2003

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER


AN INTERDISCIPLINARY MIT STADY, 2003

8.1

, ,

13636
38723
38723
38723

13636
38723
63840
63840


0
50
100
150

,
,

8.2

2230
8321
13718
13718

2230
14094
23236
23236


0
50
100
150

8.1

1948
5532
5532
5532

1948
5532
9120
9120


0
50
100
150

8.2

319
1189
1960
1960

319
2014
3320
3320


0
50
100
150

= (VVER-1000U) + (VVER-1000Pu) + (BN-1600Pu) + (BREST-1200Pu) + (BN-800Pu)

, TW

= (COAL-01) + (COAL-02)

7
= (GAS-01) + (GAS-02)

6
GAS-02

GAS-01
COAL-02
COAL-01

BN-800P
BR-1200P
BN-1600P

VV-1000P
VV-1000U

2
1
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

, yr

70

80

90

100

150

DATE=20070618_133000

. 1. (TW): a)
; b) 8%/yr, 15%/yr; c) K =
; d) . - = 10 **(-08); e) VVER-1000U
, - t >30 yr ; 0 10
11.5%, 9.6%, 10 40 15 % 12 %

, ...

121

894

45

62

40

200


( )

*1)

1 , USD *3
< 40

< 80

< 130

RAR

66 100

145 000

EAR-I

17 200

36 500

EAR-II

56 300

104 500

550 000

SR *2)

8.4


( )

*1)

:
1. RAR (Reasonable Assured Resources)
.
.
2. EAR-I (Estimated Additional Resources Category I) ,
.
, RAR.
3. EAR-II (Estimated Additional Resources Category II)
,
.
, EAR-I.
4. SR (Speculative Resources) EAR-II
,
.
*2)

SR 450 000
.
*3)

USD .


(MOX-)

,
USD/

, USD/

,
USD/

(UOX),
USD/

(),
USD/

UOX-,
USD/

DOEGEN-IV**

Fetter, Bunn,
Holdren***

25

20-30-40

20-30-80

33

30

3-5-7

3-5-8

4-6-8

50-80-110

50-80-120

50-100-150

100

200-250-300

200-250-350

150-250-350

275

410-530-650

210-410-640

0-150-300
(,
)

400

700-800-900

500-800-1100

500-1000-1600

1000

OECD/NEA

(2002)*

8.5

(MOX-)

UOX-,
USD/

MOX-,
USD/

(),
USD/

MOX-,
USD/

DOEGEN-IV**

Fetter, Bunn,
Holdren***

25

700-800-900

500-800-1100

500-1000-1600

1000

700-800-900

500-800-1100

63-72-81

80-200-310

0-150-300
(,
)

300

900-1100-1300

600-1100-1750

700-1500-2300

1500

OECD/NEA

(2002)*

, ,

1202
1598
1598
1598

1202
1598
2635
2635


0
50
100
150

, ,

213
433
714
714

213
677
1116
1116


0
50
100
150

172
229
229
229

172
229
377
377


0
50
100
150

31
62
102
102

31
97
160
160


0
50
100
150

:
:
1) --1000 (U) -
;
2) --1000 (U) -
;
3) --1000 (U) - -
;
4) -800(Pu) -
,
:
1) -1 ;
2) -2
:
1) -1 ;
2)
2) -2 .

,
, /()

SOx

1.500

12.500

8.300

13.700

NOx

0.400

3.000

4.500

3.400

CO

0.010

0.240

0.610

0.060

CH4

0.005

0.050

1.250

0.010

CO2

8.000

1100.000

640.000

530.000

0.400

0.900

0.860

0.140

0.35
-

0.3

0.25
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

0.2

0.15
-

0.1

0.05

0
-1

10

2
10

3
20

4
30

540

650

7
60

870

980

10
90

11
100

. 2. : ;
; - ; -


-
(-? , 150 ) eff : 0; 5;
10; 15 %/, cUSD/()

()

()



:
eff = 0%/
eff = 5%/
eff = 10%/
eff = 15%/

2.25
4.72
6.92
9.94

5.55
13.12
15.19
16.44

3.78
5.57
7.17
10.01

2.33
4.65
6.89
9.92

3.72
5.37
7.09
9.98

55.49
13.12
15.19
16.44

55.49
12.44
14.91
16.44

55.49
12.44
14.91
16.44



:
eff = 0%/
eff = 5%/
eff = 10%/
eff = 15%/


-
(-? , 150 ) eff : 0; 5;
10; 15 %/, cUSD/()

()

()



:
eff = 0%/
eff = 5%/
eff = 10%/
eff = 15%/

2.25
4.72
6.92
9.94

2.79
5.51
7.25
7.25

3.78
5.57
7.17
10.01

2.33
4.65
6.89
9.92

3.72
5.37
7.09
9.98

2.79
5.51
7.25
7.25

2.83
5.56
7.25
7.25

2.83
5.56
7.25
7.25



:
eff = 0%/
eff = 5%/
eff = 10%/
eff = 15%/


- (
eff ) (? , 150 ), cUSD/(),
.

eff ,
%/

10

15

20

25

13.7
17.3

5.72
6.39

10.63
11.25

26.61
27.96

471.6
489.4

3949
4059

-1

31.285
42.535

15.565
26.815

17.538
28.788

20.373
31.623

23.080
34.329

26.876
38.126

-1

55.975
64.175

49.289
57.489

44.763
52.962

44.359
52.559

29.429
37.629

30.656
38.856

-
():

********** ********** ********** ********** ********** **********

( ):
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2.
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(
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3. ( , )

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1.
.
.
40 .
2.
.
3.

1
/, 20
100 .
1 . .

:
40 :
4.
(1 . )
: -800, -300,
-100, .
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6.
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7. (1 . )
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