SI JADWAL PANEN DAUN THE UNTUK MENCEGAH OVERPRODUCTION

Moving Average
Hari Jumlah Produksi (Ton)
Forecast MAD MSE MAPE
1 16570 16570
2 16070 16570 500 250000 0.0311138768
3 21610 16320 5290 27984100 0.2447940768
4 21760 18840 2920 8526400 0.1341911765
5 23460 21685 1775 3150625 0.0756606991
6 24680 22610 2070 4284900 0.0838735818
7 24560 24070 490 240100 0.0199511401
8 22890 24620 1730 2992900 0.0755788554
9 25620 23725 1895 3591025 0.0739656518
10 27160 24255 2905 8439025 0.1069587629
11 28720 26390 2330 5428900 0.0811281337
12 24890 27940 3050 9302500 0.1225391724
13 33460 26805 6655 44289025 0.198894202
14 30150 29175 975 950625 0.0323383085
15 33850 31805 2045 4182025 0.0604135894
16 31290 32000 710 504100 0.0226909556
17 31090 32570 1480 2190400 0.0476037311
18 28880 31190 2310 5336100 0.0799861496
19 36750 29985 6765 45765225 0.1840816327
20 26000 32815 6815 46444225 0.2621153846
21 37980 31375 6605 43626025 0.1739073196
22 44470 31990 12480 155750400 0.2806386328
23 43090 41225 1865 3478225 0.0432815038
24 35710 43780 8070 65124900 0.2259871185
25 43870 39400 4470 19980900 0.1018919535
26 41930 39790 2140 4579600 0.0510374434
27 20970 42900 21930 480924900 1.0457796853
28 38160 31450 6710 45024100 0.1758385744
29 32000 29565 2435 5929225 0.07609375
30 24690 35080 10390 107952100 0.420818145
31 22370 28345 5975 35700625 0.267098793
32 24780 23530 1250 1562500 0.0504439064
33 34280 23575 10705 114597025 0.3122812135
34 13530 29530 16000 256000000 1.1825572801
35 24470 23905 565 319225 0.0230894973
36 27900 19000 8900 79210000 0.3189964158
37 26140 26185 45 2025 0.0017214996
38 34200 27020 7180 51552400 0.2099415205
39 27040 30170 3130 9796900 0.1157544379
40 36370 30620 5750 33062500 0.158097333
41 35380 31705 3675 13505625 0.1038722442
42 33870 35875 2005 4020025 0.0591969294
43 28760 34625 5865 34398225 0.2039290682
44 21290 31315 10025 100500625 0.4708783466
45 24660 25025 365 133225 0.0148012976
46 13360 22975 9615 92448225 0.7196856287
47 14370 19010 4640 21529600 0.32289492
48 32920 13865 19055 363093025 0.5788274605
49 29250 23645 5605 31416025 0.1916239316
50 23680 31085 7405 54834025 0.3127111486
51 22880 26465 3585 12852225 0.1566870629
52 20244 23280 3036 9217296 0.1499703616
53 18710 21562 2852 8133904 0.1524318546
54 6750 19477 12727 161976529 1.8854814815
55 21950 12730 9220 85008400 0.4200455581
56 24510 14350 10160 103225600 0.4145246838
57 21220 23230 2010 4040100 0.0947219604
58 21060 22865 1805 3258025 0.0857075024
59 22810 21140 1670 2788900 0.0732135028
60 21690 21935 245 60025 0.0112955279
61 23120 22250 870 756900 0.0376297578
62 25260 22405 2855 8151025 0.1130245447
63 19110 24190 5080 25806400 0.2658294087
64 17150 22185 5035 25351225 0.2935860058
65 19820 18130 1690 2856100 0.0852674067
66 17150 18485 1335 1782225 0.0778425656
67 21110 18485 2625 6890625 0.1243486499
68 23010 19130 3880 15054400 0.1686223381
69 20220 22060 1840 3385600 0.0909990109
70 17370 21615 4245 18020025 0.2443868739
71 19320 18795 525 275625 0.027173913
72 18190 18345 155 24025 0.0085211655
73 23400 18755 4645 21576025 0.1985042735
74 23540 20795 2745 7535025 0.1166100255
75 9300 23470 14170 200788900 1.523655914
76 12000 16420 4420 19536400 0.3683333333
77 25990 10650 15340 235315600 0.5902270104
78 29790 18995 10795 116532025 0.3623699228
79 33220 27890 5330 28408900 0.1604455148
80 30770 31505 735 540225 0.0238869028
81 34370 31995 2375 5640625 0.0691009601
82 35490 32570 2920 8526400 0.0822766977
83 33140 34930 1790 3204100 0.054013277
84 32750 34315 1565 2449225 0.0477862595
85 11640 32945 21305 453903025 1.8303264605
 86 36170 22195 13975 195300625 0.3863699198
87 29490 23905 5585 31192225 0.1893862326
88 31920 32830 910 828100 0.0285087719
89 36080 30705 5375 28890625 0.1489745011
90 20880 34000 13120 172134400 0.6283524904
91 32930 28480 4450 19802500 0.1351351351
92 17550 26905 9355 87516025 0.533048433
93 42890 25240 17650 311522500 0.4115178363
94 40540 30220 10320 106502400 0.2545633942
95 40900 41715 815 664225 0.0199266504
96 36750 40720 3970 15760900 0.1080272109
97 10010 38825 28815 830304225 2.8786213786
98 42210 23380 18830 354568900 0.4461028192
99 38260 26110 12150 147622500 0.3175640355
100 34410 40235 5825 33930625 0.1692821854
101 7950 36335 28385 805708225 3.5704402516
102 33320 21180 12140 147379600 0.3643457383
103 35850 20635 15215 231496225 0.4244072524
104 29380 34585 5205 27092025 0.1771613342
105 34790 32615 2175 4730625 0.0625179649
106 22930 32085 9155 83814025 0.3992586132
107 12360 28860 16500 272250000 1.3349514563
108 32600 17645 14955 223652025 0.4587423313
109 39150 22480 16670 277888900 0.425798212
110 33800 35875 2075 4305625 0.0613905325
111 37820 36475 1345 1809025 0.0355631941
112 39730 35810 3920 15366400 0.0986659955
113 36630 38775 2145 4601025 0.0585585586
114 35930 38180 2250 5062500 0.0626217645
115 32540 36280 3740 13987600 0.114935464
116 30590 34235 3645 13286025 0.1191565871
117 36660 31565 5095 25959025 0.1389798145
118 36920 33625 3295 10857025 0.0892470206
119 35600 36790 1190 1416100 0.0334269663
120 29630 36260 6630 43956900 0.223759703
121 32690 32615 75 5625 0.0022942796
122 15790 31160 15370 236236900 0.9734008866
123 33840 24240 9600 92160000 0.2836879433
124 33650 24815 8835 78057225 0.2625557207
125 34270 33745 525 275625 0.0153195214
126 36460 33960 2500 6250000 0.068568294
127 42080 35365 6715 45091225 0.1595769962
128 39210 39270 60 3600 0.0015302219
129 39560 40645 1085 1177225 0.0274266936
130 39180 39385 205 42025 0.0052322614
131 36480 39370 2890 8352100 0.0792214912
132 39760 37830 1930 3724900 0.0485412475
133 35740 38120 2380 5664400 0.0665920537
134 31100 37750 6650 44222500 0.2138263666
135 28910 33420 4510 20340100 0.1560013836
136 34240 30005 4235 17935225 0.1236857477
137 35510 31575 3935 15484225 0.1108138553
138 38330 34875 3455 11937025 0.0901382729
139 32520 36920 4400 19360000 0.135301353
140 33590 35425 1835 3367225 0.054629354
141 38190 33055 5135 26368225 0.1344592825
142 45550 35890 9660 93315600 0.2120746432
143 43350 41870 1480 2190400 0.0341407151
144 52440 44450 7990 63840100 0.1523646072
145 65350 47895 17455 304677025 0.2671002295
146 36580 58895 22315 497959225 0.6100328048
147 61970 50965 11005 121110025 0.1775859287
148 50180 49275 905 819025 0.0180350737
149 35880 56075 20195 407838025 0.5628483835
150 38560 43030 4470 19980900 0.1159232365
151 39490 37220 2270 5152900 0.0574829071
152 47150 39025 8125 66015625 0.1723223754
153 53370 43320 10050 101002500 0.1883080382
154 56460 50260 6200 38440000 0.1098122565
155 40340 54915 14575 212430625 0.3613039167
156 30280 48400 18120 328334400 0.5984147952
157 30020 35310 5290 27984100 0.1762158561
158 33310 30150 3160 9985600 0.0948664065
159 35380 31665 3715 13801225 0.1050028265
160 36200 34345 1855 3441025 0.0512430939
161 32570 35790 3220 10368400 0.0988639853
162 25900 34385 8485 71995225 0.3276061776
163 29300 29235 65 4225 0.00221843
164 42690 27600 15090 227708100 0.3534785664
165 38540 35995 2545 6477025 0.066035288
166 39370 40615 1245 1550025 0.0316230632
167 39620 38955 665 442225 0.0167844523
168 41060 39495 1565 2449225 0.0381149537
169 34120 40340 6220 38688400 0.1822977726
170 40610 37590 3020 9120400 0.0743659197
171 42830 37365 5465 29866225 0.1275974784
172 28950 41720 12770 163072900 0.4411053541
173 46950 35890 11060 122323600 0.2355697551
174 35260 37950 2690 7236100 0.0762904141
175 34520 41105 6585 43362225 0.1907589803
176 37220 34890 2330 5428900 0.0626007523
177 33200 35870 2670 7128900 0.0804216867
178 32560 35210 2650 7022500 0.0813882064
179 35270 32880 2390 5712100 0.0677629714
180 27140 33915 6775 45900625 0.2496315402
181 31370 31205 165 27225 0.0052598024
182 36530 29255 7275 52925625 0.1991513824
183 29600 33950 4350 18922500 0.1469594595
184 32050 33065 1015 1030225 0.0316692668
185 29250 30825 1575 2480625 0.0538461538
186 23170 30650 7480 55950400 0.3228312473
187 31500 26210 5290 27984100 0.1679365079
188 33340 27335 6005 36060025 0.1801139772
189 33040 32420 620 384400 0.0187651332
190 33340 33190 150 22500 0.0044991002
191 40230 33190 7040 49561600 0.1749937857
192 29940 36785 6845 46854025 0.2286239145
193 29980 35085 5105 26061025 0.1702801868
194 37090 29960 7130 50836900 0.1922351038
195 18190 33535 15345 235469025 0.8435953821
196 15000 27640 12640 159769600 0.8426666667
197 31460 16595 14865 220968225 0.472504768
198 34730 23230 11500 132250000 0.3311258278
199 25000 33095 8095 65529025 0.3238
200 43040 29865 13175 173580625 0.3061105948
201 45590 34020 11570 133864900 0.2537837245
202 45450 44315 1135 1288225 0.0249724972
203 42210 45520 3310 10956100 0.0784174366
204 42660 43830 1170 1368900 0.0274261603
205 39640 42435 2795 7812025 0.0705095863
206 38230 41150 2920 8526400 0.0763798064
207 33990 38935 4945 24453025 0.1454839659
208 34280 36110 1830 3348900 0.0533838973
209 33350 34135 785 616225 0.0235382309
210 25670 33815 8145 66341025 0.317296455
211 30400 29510 890 792100 0.0292763158
212 27980 28035 55 3025 0.0019656898
213 32900 29190 3710 13764100 0.1127659574
214 37030 30440 6590 43428100 0.1779638131
215 32270 34965 2695 7263025 0.0835140998
216 26270 34650 8380 70224400 0.3189950514
217 29980 29270 710 504100 0.023682455
218 30420 28125 2295 5267025 0.075443787
219 34530 30200 4330 18748900 0.1253982045
220 29930 32475 2545 6477025 0.0850317407
221 28720 32230 3510 12320100 0.1222144847
222 30300 29325 975 950625 0.0321782178
223 24640 29510 4870 23716900 0.1976461039
224 33330 27470 5860 34339600 0.1758175818
225 34270 28985 5285 27931225 0.1542165159
226 41260 33800 7460 55651600 0.1808046534
227 40560 37765 2795 7812025 0.0689102564
228 32460 40910 8450 71402500 0.2603203943
229 30070 36510 6440 41473600 0.2141669438
230 31140 31265 125 15625 0.0040141297
231 31140 30605 535 286225 0.0171804753
232 31720 31140 580 336400 0.0182849937
233 24260 31430 7170 51408900 0.2955482275
234 31990 27990 4000 16000000 0.1250390747
235 32090 28125 3965 15721225 0.123558741
236 30320 32040 1720 2958400 0.0567282322
237 30010 31205 1195 1428025 0.03982006
238 13760 30165 16405 269124025 1.1922238372
239 33910 21885 12025 144600625 0.3546151578
240 31840 23835 8005 64080025 0.2514133166
241 29980 32875 2895 8381025 0.0965643763
242 32810 30910 1900 3610000 0.057909174
243 34940 31395 3545 12567025 0.1014596451
244 37090 33875 3215 10336225 0.0866810461
245 40380 36015 4365 19053225 0.1080980684
246 31470 38735 7265 52780225 0.2308547823
247 29060 35925 6865 47128225 0.2362353751
248 30330 30265 65 4225 0.0021430926
249 26970 29695 2725 7425625 0.1010381906
250 33810 28650 5160 26625600 0.1526175688
251 31200 30390 810 656100 0.0259615385
252 33810 32505 1305 1703025 0.0385980479
253 36830 32505 4325 18705625 0.1174314418
254 34200 35320 1120 1254400 0.032748538
255 45980 35515 10465 109516225 0.2275989561
256 40820 40090 730 532900 0.0178833905
257 39220 43400 4180 17472400 0.1065782764
258 28670 40020 11350 128822500 0.3958841995
259 29920 33945 4025 16200625 0.1345254011
260 34030 29295 4735 22420225 0.1391419336
261 36930 31975 4955 24552025 0.1341727593
262 29080 35480 6400 40960000 0.2200825309
263 33540 33005 535 286225 0.0159511032
264 33230 31310 1920 3686400 0.0577791153
265 33190 33385 195 38025 0.0058752636
266 36500 33210 3290 10824100 0.0901369863
267 39340 34845 4495 20205025 0.1142602949
268 37650 37920 270 72900 0.0071713147
269 38164 38495 331 109561 0.0086730951
270 31340 37907 6567 43125489 0.2095405233
271 30870 34752 3882 15069924 0.1257531584
272 27310 31105 3795 14402025 0.1389600879
273 32870 29090 3780 14288400 0.1149984789
274 33130 30090 3040 9241600 0.0917597344
275 24690 33000 8310 69056100 0.3365735115
276 23410 28910 5500 30250000 0.2349423323
277 21730 24050 2320 5382400 0.1067648412
278 29500 22570 6930 48024900 0.2349152542
279 32450 25615 6835 46717225 0.2106317411
280 29970 30975 1005 1010025 0.0335335335
281 28540 31210 2670 7128900 0.0935529082
282 29170 29255 85 7225 0.0029139527
283 26760 28855 2095 4389025 0.0782884903
284 28260 27965 295 87025 0.0104387827
285 29770 27510 2260 5107600 0.075915351
286 29530 29015 515 265225 0.0174398916
287 31700 29650 2050 4202500 0.0646687697
288 20030 30615 10585 112042225 0.528457314
289 24120 25865 1745 3045025 0.0723466003
290 27740 22075 5665 32092225 0.2042177361
291 29700 25930 3770 14212900 0.1269360269
292 31060 28720 2340 5475600 0.0753380554
293 30660 30380 280 78400 0.0091324201
294 31130 30860 270 72900 0.0086733055
295 28940 30895 1955 3822025 0.0675535591
296 16090 30035 13945 194463025 0.8666873835
297 34800 22515 12285 150921225 0.3530172414
298 33680 25445 8235 67815225 0.2445071259
299 34110 34240 130 16900 0.0038111991
300 37330 33895 3435 11799225 0.0920171444
301 26650 35720 9070 82264900 0.3403377111
302 21190 31990 10800 116640000 0.5096743747
303 34330 23920 10410 108368100 0.3032333236
304 35750 27760 7990 63840100 0.2234965035
305 42300 35040 7260 52707600 0.1716312057
306 44960 39025 5935 35224225 0.1320062278
307 40270 43630 3360 11289600 0.0834368016
308 38600 42615 4015 16120225 0.104015544
309 43870 39435 4435 19669225 0.1010941418
310 45400 41235 4165 17347225 0.0917400881
311 49400 44635 4765 22705225 0.0964574899
312 40570 47400 6830 46648900 0.1683509983
313 39960 44985 5025 25250625 0.1257507508
314 40265
9936018 Total 1704590 17129057728 66.708576241
5463.4294872 54900826.051 0.2138095392
21.38
MAD MSE MAPE
SEE 7397.6632156
 Moving Average
70000

60000

50000

40000
Value

30000

20000

10000

0
1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141 155 169 183 197 211 225 239 253 267 281 295 309
Data Point

MAD 5463.42948717949
MSE 54900826.0512821
MAPE 21.38
SEE 7397.66321557816
 Actual
Forecast

239 253 267 281 295 309

 Metode Kuadratik
t Dt Dt.t Dt.t^2 t^2 t^3
1 16570 16570 16570 1 1
2 16070 32140 64280 4 8
3 21610 64830 194490 9 27
4 21760 87040 348160 16 64
5 23460 117300 586500 25 125
6 24680 148080 888480 36 216
7 24560 171920 1203440 49 343
8 22890 183120 1464960 64 512
9 25620 230580 2075220 81 729
10 27160 271600 2716000 100 1000
11 28720 315920 3475120 121 1331
12 24890 298680 3584160 144 1728
13 33460 434980 5654740 169 2197
14 30150 422100 5909400 196 2744
15 33850 507750 7616250 225 3375
16 31290 500640 8010240 256 4096
17 31090 528530 8985010 289 4913
18 28880 519840 9357120 324 5832
19 36750 698250 13266750 361 6859
20 26000 520000 10400000 400 8000
21 37980 797580 16749180 441 9261
22 44470 978340 21523480 484 10648
23 43090 991070 22794610 529 12167
24 35710 857040 20568960 576 13824
25 43870 1096750 27418750 625 15625
26 41930 1090180 28344680 676 17576
27 20970 566190 15287130 729 19683
28 38160 1068480 29917440 784 21952
29 32000 928000 26912000 841 24389
30 24690 740700 22221000 900 27000
31 22370 693470 21497570 961 29791
32 24780 792960 25374720 1024 32768
33 34280 1131240 37330920 1089 35937
34 13530 460020 15640680 1156 39304
35 24470 856450 29975750 1225 42875
36 27900 1004400 36158400 1296 46656
37 26140 967180 35785660 1369 50653
38 34200 1299600 49384800 1444 54872
39 27040 1054560 41127840 1521 59319
40 36370 1454800 58192000 1600 64000
41 35380 1450580 59473780 1681 68921
42 33870 1422540 59746680 1764 74088
43 28760 1236680 53177240 1849 79507
44 21290 936760 41217440 1936 85184
45 24660 1109700 49936500 2025 91125
46 13360 614560 28269760 2116 97336
47 14370 675390 31743330 2209 103823
48 32920 1580160 75847680 2304 110592
49 29250 1433250 70229250 2401 117649
50 23680 1184000 59200000 2500 125000
51 22880 1166880 59510880 2601 132651
52 20244 1052688 54739776 2704 140608
53 18710 991630 52556390 2809 148877
54 6750 364500 19683000 2916 157464
55 21950 1207250 66398750 3025 166375
56 24510 1372560 76863360 3136 175616
57 21220 1209540 68943780 3249 185193
58 21060 1221480 70845840 3364 195112
59 22810 1345790 79401610 3481 205379
60 21690 1301400 78084000 3600 216000
61 23120 1410320 86029520 3721 226981
62 25260 1566120 97099440 3844 238328
63 19110 1203930 75847590 3969 250047
64 17150 1097600 70246400 4096 262144
65 19820 1288300 83739500 4225 274625
66 17150 1131900 74705400 4356 287496
67 21110 1414370 94762790 4489 300763
68 23010 1564680 106398240 4624 314432
69 20220 1395180 96267420 4761 328509
70 17370 1215900 85113000 4900 343000
71 19320 1371720 97392120 5041 357911
72 18190 1309680 94296960 5184 373248
73 23400 1708200 124698600 5329 389017
74 23540 1741960 128905040 5476 405224
75 9300 697500 52312500 5625 421875
76 12000 912000 69312000 5776 438976
77 25990 2001230 154094710 5929 456533
78 29790 2323620 181242360 6084 474552
79 33220 2624380 207326020 6241 493039
80 30770 2461600 196928000 6400 512000
81 34370 2783970 225501570 6561 531441
 82 35490 2910180 238634760 6724 551368
83 33140 2750620 228301460 6889 571787
84 32750 2751000 231084000 7056 592704
85 11640 989400 84099000 7225 614125
86 36170 3110620 267513320 7396 636056
87 29490 2565630 223209810 7569 658503
88 31920 2808960 247188480 7744 681472
89 36080 3211120 285789680 7921 704969
90 20880 1879200 169128000 8100 729000
91 32930 2996630 272693330 8281 753571
92 17550 1614600 148543200 8464 778688
93 42890 3988770 370955610 8649 804357
94 40540 3810760 358211440 8836 830584
95 40900 3885500 369122500 9025 857375
96 36750 3528000 338688000 9216 884736
97 10010 970970 94184090 9409 912673
98 42210 4136580 405384840 9604 941192
99 38260 3787740 374986260 9801 970299
100 34410 3441000 344100000 10000 1000000
101 7950 802950 81097950 10201 1030301
102 33320 3398640 346661280 10404 1061208
103 35850 3692550 380332650 10609 1092727
104 29380 3055520 317774080 10816 1124864
105 34790 3652950 383559750 11025 1157625
106 22930 2430580 257641480 11236 1191016
107 12360 1322520 141509640 11449 1225043
108 32600 3520800 380246400 11664 1259712
109 39150 4267350 465141150 11881 1295029
110 33800 3718000 408980000 12100 1331000
111 37820 4198020 465980220 12321 1367631
112 39730 4449760 498373120 12544 1404928
113 36630 4139190 467728470 12769 1442897
114 35930 4096020 466946280 12996 1481544
115 32540 3742100 430341500 13225 1520875
116 30590 3548440 411619040 13456 1560896
117 36660 4289220 501838740 13689 1601613
118 36920 4356560 514074080 13924 1643032
119 35600 4236400 504131600 14161 1685159
120 29630 3555600 426672000 14400 1728000
121 32690 3955490 478614290 14641 1771561
122 15790 1926380 235018360 14884 1815848
123 33840 4162320 511965360 15129 1860867
124 33650 4172600 517402400 15376 1906624
125 34270 4283750 535468750 15625 1953125
126 36460 4593960 578838960 15876 2000376
127 42080 5344160 678708320 16129 2048383
128 39210 5018880 642416640 16384 2097152
129 39560 5103240 658317960 16641 2146689
130 39180 5093400 662142000 16900 2197000
131 36480 4778880 626033280 17161 2248091
132 39760 5248320 692778240 17424 2299968
133 35740 4753420 632204860 17689 2352637
134 31100 4167400 558431600 17956 2406104
135 28910 3902850 526884750 18225 2460375
136 34240 4656640 633303040 18496 2515456
137 35510 4864870 666487190 18769 2571353
138 38330 5289540 729956520 19044 2628072
139 32520 4520280 628318920 19321 2685619
140 33590 4702600 658364000 19600 2744000
141 38190 5384790 759255390 19881 2803221
142 45550 6468100 918470200 20164 2863288
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de Kuadratik Peramalan
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2176782336 1834232.71052 1807963 3.268729E+12 68.82233 529
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2947295521 2134817.0973 2110557 4.454451E+12 86.99741 546
2998219536 2153210.03119 2121220 4.499574E+12 66.30885 547
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3102044416 2190233.06541 2159913 4.665224E+12 71.23724 549
3154956561 2208863.16575 2178853 4.747401E+12 72.60424 550
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3429742096 2303199.49972 2270389 5.154668E+12 69.1981 555
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4097152081 2517696.31716 2480866 6.154698E+12 67.35993 566
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4228250625 2557723.45982 2511743 6.308855E+12 54.62687 568
4294967296 2577855.61438 2537036 6.43655E+12 62.15178 569
4362470401 2598066.82443 2558847 6.547697E+12 65.24342 570
4430766096 2618357.08995 2589687 6.706479E+12 90.32742 571
4499860561 2638726.41097 2608806 6.805871E+12 87.19273 572
4569760000 2659174.78747 2625145 6.891385E+12 77.14207 573
4640470641 2679702.21945 2642772 6.984245E+12 71.56166 574
4711998736 2700308.70692 2671229 7.135463E+12 91.85793 575
4784350561 2720994.24987 2687454 7.22241E+12 80.12684 576
4857532416 2741758.84831 2708529 7.336129E+12 81.50854 577
4931550625 2762602.50224 2729413 7.449693E+12 82.23599 578
5006411536 2783525.21165 2747025 7.546148E+12 75.26096 579
5082121521 2804526.97655 2765187 7.646259E+12 70.28945 580
5158686976 2825607.79693 2787958 7.772709E+12 74.04934 581
5236114321 2846767.67279 2808604 7.888255E+12 73.59301 582
5314410000 2868006.60414 2836667 8.046677E+12 90.51265 583
5393580481 2889324.59098 2858455 8.170763E+12 92.59652 584
5473632256 2910721.6333 2883412 8.314063E+12 105.5808 585
5554571841 2932197.73111 2899328 8.406101E+12 88.20589 586
5636405776 2953752.8844 2920623 8.530038E+12 88.15644 587
5719140625 2975387.09318 2950697 8.706613E+12 119.5098 588
5802782976 2997100.35744 2973690 8.842834E+12 127.0265 589
5887339441 3018892.67719 2997163 8.982984E+12 137.9274 590
5972816656 3040764.05242 3011264 9.067711E+12 102.0767 591
6059221281 3062714.48314 3030264 9.182503E+12 93.38257 592
6146560000 3084743.96934 3054774 9.331644E+12 101.9277 593
6234839521 3106852.51103 3078313 9.476008E+12 107.8596 594
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6784652161 3241163.92635 3209464 1.030066E+13 101.2449 600
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7072810000 3309386.88306 3281647 1.076921E+13 118.3002 603
7170871761 3332285.9796 3302586 1.090707E+13 111.1982 604
7269949696 3355264.13163 3324204 1.105033E+13 107.0252 605
7370050801 3378321.33914 3347661 1.120684E+13 109.1866 606
7471182096 3401457.60213 3370328 1.135911E+13 108.2662 607
7573350625 3424672.92061 3395733 1.1531E+13 117.337 608
7676563456 3447967.29458 3431877 1.177778E+13 213.2926 609
7780827681 3471340.72403 3436541 1.180981E+13 98.75117 610
7886150416 3494793.20897 3461113 1.19793E+13 102.7646 611
7992538801 3518324.74939 3484215 1.213975E+13 102.1464 612
8100000000 3541935.3453 3504605 1.228226E+13 93.88174 613
8208541201 3565624.99669 3538975 1.252434E+13 132.7946 614
8318169616 3589393.70357 3568204 1.273208E+13 168.3909 615
8428892481 3613241.46593 3578911 1.280861E+13 104.2503 616
8540717056 3637168.28378 3601418 1.297021E+13 100.739 617
8653650625 3661174.15711 3618874 1.309625E+13 85.55258 618
8767700496 3685259.08593 3640299 1.325178E+13 80.96751 619
8882874001 3709423.07024 3669153 1.346268E+13 91.11381 620
8999178496 3733666.11003 3695066 1.365351E+13 95.7271 621
9116621361 3757988.2053 3714118 1.379467E+13 84.66191 622
9235210000 3782389.35606 3736989 1.396509E+13 82.31254 623
9354951841 3806869.5623 3757470 1.411858E+13 76.06214 624
9475854336 3831428.82403 3790859 1.437061E+13 93.43995 625
9597924961 3856067.14125 3816107 1.456267E+13 95.49818 626
12948594 754506.052646 605072.5 11412980884 23.15829
Peramalan
t^2 Dt' Chart Tit
98596 3880784.514
4500000
99225 3905580.942
4000000
99856 3930456.426
100489 3955410.965 3500000
101124 3980444.56 3000000
101761 4005557.21 2500000
102400 4030748.915

Value
2000000
103041 4056019.676
103684 4081369.493 1500000
104329 4106798.365 1000000
104976 4132306.293 500000
105625 4157893.276 0
106276 4183559.314 1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113127141 1551691
106929 4209304.408 Data Point
107584 4235128.558
108241 4261031.763
108900 4287014.023
109561 4313075.339
110224 4339215.711
110889 4365435.137
111556 4391733.62
112225 4418111.158
112896 4444567.751
113569 4471103.4
114244 4497718.104
114921 4524411.864
115600 4551184.679
116281 4578036.55
116964 4604967.477
117649 4631977.458
118336 4659066.496
119025 4686234.588
119716 4713481.737
120409 4740807.94
121104 4768213.199
121801 4795697.514
122500 4823260.884
123201 4850903.31
123904 4878624.791
124609 4906425.328
125316 4934304.92
126025 4962263.567
126736 4990301.271
127449 5018418.029
128164 5046613.843
128881 5074888.713
129600 5103242.638
130321 5131675.618
131044 5160187.654
131769 5188778.746
132496 5217448.893
133225 5246198.095
133956 5275026.353
134689 5303933.666
135424 5332920.035
136161 5361985.46
136900 5391129.94
137641 5420353.475
138384 5449656.066
139129 5479037.712
139876 5508498.414
140625 5538038.171
141376 5567656.984
142129 5597354.852
142884 5627131.776
143641 5656987.755
144400 5686922.79
145161 5716936.88
145924 5747030.026
146689 5777202.227
147456 5807453.484
148225 5837783.796
148996 5868193.164
149769 5898681.587
150544 5929249.065
151321 5959895.599
152100 5990621.189
152881 6021425.834
153664 6052309.535
154449 6083272.291
155236 6114314.102
156025 6145434.969
156816 6176634.892
157609 6207913.87
158404 6239271.903
159201 6270708.992
160000 6302225.136
160801 6333820.336
161604 6365494.592
162409 6397247.903
163216 6429080.269
164025 6460991.691
164836 6492982.168
165649 6525051.701
166464 6557200.289
167281 6589427.933
168100 6621734.632
168921 6654120.387
169744 6686585.197
170569 6719129.063
171396 6751751.984
172225 6784453.961
173056 6817234.993
173889 6850095.081
174724 6883034.224
175561 6916052.423
176400 6949149.677
177241 6982325.986
178084 7015581.352
178929 7048915.772
179776 7082329.248
180625 7115821.78
181476 7149393.367
182329 7183044.009
183184 7216773.707
184041 7250582.461
184900 7284470.27
185761 7318437.134
186624 7352483.054
187489 7386608.03
188356 7420812.061
189225 7455095.147
190096 7489457.289
190969 7523898.486
191844 7558418.739
192721 7593018.048
193600 7627696.411
194481 7662453.831
195364 7697290.305
196249 7732205.836
197136 7767200.422
198025 7802274.063
198916 7837426.76
199809 7872658.512
200704 7907969.32
201601 7943359.183
202500 7978828.101
203401 8014376.076
204304 8050003.105
205209 8085709.19
206116 8121494.331
207025 8157358.527
207936 8193301.779
208849 8229324.086
209764 8265425.448
210681 8301605.866
211600 8337865.34
212521 8374203.869
213444 8410621.454
214369 8447118.094
215296 8483693.789
216225 8520348.54
217156 8557082.346
218089 8593895.208
219024 8630787.126
219961 8667758.099
220900 8704808.127
221841 8741937.211
222784 8779145.35
223729 8816432.545
224676 8853798.795
225625 8891244.101
226576 8928768.463
227529 8966371.879
228484 9004054.352
229441 9041815.879
230400 9079656.463
231361 9117576.101
232324 9155574.796
233289 9193652.545
234256 9231809.351
235225 9270045.211
236196 9308360.127
237169 9346754.099
238144 9385227.126
239121 9423779.209
240100 9462410.347
241081 9501120.54
242064 9539909.789
243049 9578778.094
244036 9617725.454
245025 9656751.87
246016 9695857.341
247009 9735041.867
248004 9774305.449
249001 9813648.087
250000 9853069.779
251001 9892570.528
252004 9932150.332
253009 9971809.191
254016 10011547.11
255025 10051364.08
256036 10091260.1
257049 10131235.18
258064 10171289.32
259081 10211422.51
260100 10251634.76
261121 10291926.06
262144 10332296.42
263169 10372745.84
264196 10413274.31
265225 10453881.83
266256 10494568.41
267289 10535334.05
268324 10576178.74
269361 10617102.49
270400 10658105.29
271441 10699187.15
272484 10740348.06
273529 10781588.03
274576 10822907.06
275625 10864305.14
276676 10905782.27
277729 10947338.46
278784 10988973.71
279841 11030688.01
280900 11072481.37
281961 11114353.78
283024 11156305.25
284089 11198335.77
285156 11240445.35
286225 11282633.99
287296 11324901.68
288369 11367248.42
289444 11409674.23
290521 11452179.08
291600 11494763
292681 11537425.96
293764 11580167.99
294849 11622989.07
295936 11665889.2
297025 11708868.39
298116 11751926.63
299209 11795063.94
300304 11838280.29
301401 11881575.7
302500 11924950.17
303601 11968403.69
304704 12011936.27
305809 12055547.91
306916 12099238.59
308025 12143008.34
309136 12186857.14
310249 12230784.99
311364 12274791.91
312481 12318877.87
313600 12363042.89
314721 12407286.97
315844 12451610.1
316969 12496012.29
318096 12540493.54
319225 12585053.84
320356 12629693.19
321489 12674411.6
322624 12719209.07
323761 12764085.59
324900 12809041.17
326041 12854075.8
327184 12899189.49
328329 12944382.23
329476 12989654.03
330625 13035004.88
331776 13080434.79
332929 13125943.76
334084 13171531.78
335241 13217198.86
336400 13262944.99
337561 13308770.17
338724 13354674.42
339889 13400657.72
341056 13446720.07
342225 13492861.48
343396 13539081.94
344569 13585381.46
345744 13631760.04
346921 13678217.67
348100 13724754.36
349281 13771370.1
350464 13818064.9
351649 13864838.75
352836 13911691.66
354025 13958623.62
355216 14005634.64
356409 14052724.72
357604 14099893.85
358801 14147142.03
360000 14194469.27
361201 14241875.57
362404 14289360.92
363609 14336925.33
364816 14384568.8
366025 14432291.31
367236 14480092.89
368449 14527973.52
369664 14575933.2
370881 14623971.94
372100 14672089.74
373321 14720286.59
374544 14768562.5
375769 14816917.46
376996 14865351.48
378225 14913864.55
379456 14962456.68
380689 15011127.87
381924 15059878.11
383161 15108707.4
384400 15157615.76
385641 15206603.16
386884 15255669.62
388129 15304815.14
389376 15354039.72
390625 15403343.34
391876 15452726.03
 Chart Title

Forecast
Produksi

85 99 113127141 155169183197211225239253267 281295309

Data Point
Metode Single Eksponensial Smoothing

Alfa 0.05

Metode Single Eksponensial Smoothing

t D(t) alfa 1-alfa f(t) error |error| error^2 PE
1 16570 16570 0 0 0 0
2 16070 16570 -500 500 250000 0.031114
3 21610 16543 5067.027 5067.027 25674762.893 0.234476
4 21760 16816.87 4943.134 4943.134 24434570.521 0.227166
5 23460 17084.06 6375.937 6375.937 40652575.936 0.271779
6 24680 17428.71 7251.292 7251.292 52581235.7 0.293812
7 24560 17820.67 6739.33 6739.33 45418572.519 0.274403
8 22890 18185 4705.042 4705.042 22137421.628 0.20555
9 25620 18439.28 7180.716 7180.716 51562675.764 0.280278
10 27160 18827.43 8332.569 8332.569 69431702.148 0.306796
11 28720 19277.84 9442.16 9442.16 89154378.635 0.328766
12 24890 19788.23 5101.773 5101.773 26028083.976 0.204973
13 33460 20064 13396 13396 179452846.47 0.400359
14 30150 20788.11 9361.893 9361.893 87645039.938 0.310511
15 33850 21294.16 12555.84 12555.84 157649236.11 0.370926
16 31290 21972.85 9317.15 9317.15 86809291.41 0.297768
17 31090 22476.48 8613.521 8613.521 74192737.819 0.277051
18 28880 22942.08 5937.925 5937.925 35258952.474 0.205607
19 36750 23263 13487 13487 181897982.55 0.366992
20 26000 23992.07 2007.931 2007.931 4031788.368 0.077228
21 37980 24100.61 13879.39 13879.39 192637592.65 0.36544
22 44470 24850.84 19619.16 19619.16 384911321.09 0.441177
23 43090 25911.34 17178.66 17178.66 295106428.79 0.398669
24 35710 26839.91 8870.086 8870.086 78678420.226 0.248392
25 43870 27319.38 16550.62 16550.62 273923075.44 0.377265
26 41930 28214 13716 13716 188128475.17 0.327116
27 20970 28955.41 -7985.41 7985.412 63766799.076 0.380802
28 38160 28523.77 9636.232 9636.232 92856971.619 0.252522
29 32000 29044.65 2955.355 2955.355 8734122.074 0.092355
30 24690 29204.39 -4514.39 4514.394 20379754.047 0.182843
31 22370 28960.37 -6590.37 6590.373 43433013.548 0.294608
32 24780 28604.14 -3824.14 3824.136 14624019.402 0.154324
33 34280 28397.43 5882.574 5882.574 34604672.764 0.171604
34 13530 28715.4 -15185.4 15185.4 230596473.47 1.122351
35 24470 27894.57 -3424.57 3424.571 11727684.423 0.13995
36 27900 27709.46 190.5412 190.5412 36305.963197 0.006829
37 26140 27719.76 -1579.76 1579.758 2495636.2511 0.060435
38 34200 27634.37 6565.634 6565.634 43107550.493 0.191978
39 27040 27989.27 -949.265 949.2651 901104.205 0.035106
40 36370 27938 8432.047 8432.047 71099408.845 0.231841
41 35380 28393.74 6986.26 6986.26 48807832.142 0.197464
42 33870 28771.38 5098.625 5098.625 25995972.317 0.150535
43 28760 29047 -286.977 286.9768 82355.669773 0.009978
44 21290 29031.46 -7741.46 7741.465 59930272.876 0.36362
45 24660 28613 -3953.01 3953.007 15626264.153 0.1603
46 13360 28399.33 -15039.3 15039.33 226181474.62 1.125698
47 14370 27586.39 -13216.4 13216.39 174673073.45 0.919721
48 32920 26872 6048.006 6048.006 36578371.319 0.183718
49 29250 27198.91 2051.086 2051.086 4206955.1972 0.070123
50 23680 27309.78 -3629.78 3629.783 13175325.982 0.153285
51 22880 27113.58 -4233.58 4233.579 17923188.524 0.185034
52 20244 26884.74 -6640.74 6640.737 44099382.573 0.328035
53 18710 26525.78 -7815.78 7815.778 61086383.613 0.417733
54 6750 26103.3 -19353.3 19353.3 374550351.89 2.867156
55 21950 25057.18 -3107.18 3107.179 9654560.575 0.141557
56 24510 24889.22 -379.223 379.2233 143810.28261 0.015472
57 21220 24868.72 -3648.72 3648.725 13313191.991 0.171947
58 21060 24671.5 -3611.5 3611.496 13042905.85 0.171486
59 22810 24476.28 -1666.28 1666.28 2776490.1258 0.07305
60 21690 24386.21 -2696.21 2696.211 7269554.4008 0.124307
61 23120 24240.47 -1120.47 1120.47 1255452.9713 0.048463
62 25260 24179.9 1080.096 1080.096 1166607.2977 0.042759
63 19110 24238.29 -5128.29 5128.288 26299333.697 0.268356
64 17150 23961.08 -6811.08 6811.083 46390849.778 0.397148
65 19820 23592.92 -3772.92 3772.916 14234896.822 0.190359
66 17150 23389 -6238.97 6238.975 38924806.619 0.363789
67 21110 23051.73 -1941.73 1941.733 3770326.7472 0.091982
68 23010 22946.77 63.22561 63.22561 3997.4780974 0.002748
69 20220 22950.19 -2730.19 2730.192 7453948.2914 0.135024
70 17370 22802.61 -5432.61 5432.614 29513295.337 0.312758
71 19320 22509 -3188.96 3188.959 10169460.968 0.16506
72 18190 22336.58 -4146.58 4146.583 17194151.032 0.227959
73 23400 22112.44 1287.557 1287.557 1657801.9198 0.055024
74 23540 22182 1357.959 1357.959 1844052.4207 0.057687
75 9300 22255.44 -12955.4 12955.44 167843536.17 1.393059
76 12000 21555.15 -9555.15 9555.15 91300891.194 0.796262
77 25990 21038.66 4951.345 4951.345 24515813.455 0.19051
78 29790 21306.3 8483.704 8483.704 71973239.695 0.284784
79 33220 21764.87 11455.13 11455.13 131219905.89 0.344826
80 30770 22384.07 8385.93 8385.93 70323817.958 0.272536
 81 34370 22837.36 11532.64 11532.64 133001699.12 0.335544
82 35490 23460.75 12029.25 12029.25 144702867.99 0.338948
83 33140 24111 9029.021 9029.021 81523215.867 0.272451
84 32750 24599 8150.966 8150.966 66438239.933 0.248884
85 11640 25039.63 -13399.6 13399.63 179550007.79 1.151171
86 36170 24315.32 11854.68 11854.68 140533367.23 0.327749
87 29490 24956.12 4533.884 4533.884 20556101.103 0.153743
88 31920 25201.19 6718.809 6718.809 45142392.683 0.210489
89 36080 25564.37 10515.63 10515.63 110578474.63 0.291453
90 20880 26132.78 -5252.78 5252.782 27591723.125 0.25157
91 32930 25848.85 7081.152 7081.152 50142710.351 0.215036
92 17550 26231.61 -8681.61 8681.613 75370407.635 0.494679
93 42890 25762.34 17127.66 17127.66 293356846.54 0.399339
94 40540 26688.16 13851.84 13851.84 191873570.11 0.341683
95 40900 27436.9 13463.1 13463.1 181254934.05 0.329171
96 36750 28164.64 8585.36 8585.36 73708412.918 0.233615
97 10010 28628.71 -18618.7 18618.71 346656479.38 1.860011
98 42210 27622.3 14587.7 14587.7 212801101.47 0.345598
99 38260 28410.82 9849.179 9849.179 97006331.86 0.257428
100 34410 28943.21 5466.791 5466.791 29885805.812 0.158872
101 7950 29238.71 -21288.7 21288.71 453209217.98 2.677825
102 33320 28088 5232.03 5232.03 27374138.885 0.157024
103 35850 28370.78 7479.218 7479.218 55938696.727 0.208625
104 29380 28775.06 604.9356 604.9356 365947.10358 0.02059
105 34790 28807.76 5982.236 5982.236 35787152.306 0.171953
106 22930 29131.13 -6201.13 6201.128 38453985.159 0.270437
107 12360 28795.93 -16435.9 16435.93 270139848.85 1.329768
108 32600 27907.5 4692.497 4692.497 22019529.015 0.143942
109 39150 28161.15 10988.85 10988.85 120754793.69 0.280686
110 33800 28755.14 5044.857 5044.857 25450580.029 0.149256
111 37820 29027.84 8792.162 8792.162 77302109.612 0.232474
112 39730 29503.09 10226.91 10226.91 104589684.82 0.25741
113 36630 30055.9 6574.104 6574.104 43218842.091 0.179473
114 35930 30411.25 5518.747 5518.747 30456567.707 0.153597
115 32540 30709.56 1830.436 1830.436 3350497.0032 0.056252
116 30590 30808.51 -218.506 218.5062 47744.96572 0.007143
117 36660 30796.7 5863.305 5863.305 34378344.73 0.159937
118 36920 31113.63 5806.37 5806.37 33713927.126 0.157269
119 35600 31427.49 4172.512 4172.512 17409854.038 0.117205
120 29630 31653 -2023.03 2023.029 4092648.1791 0.068276
121 32690 31543.68 1146.323 1146.323 1314057.5385 0.035066
122 15790 31605.64 -15815.6 15815.64 250134466.84 1.001624
123 33840 30750.74 3089.26 3089.26 9543524.335 0.09129
124 33650 30917.73 2732.273 2732.273 7465313.0784 0.081197
125 34270 31065.42 3204.582 3204.582 10269346.472 0.09351
126 36460 31238.64 5221.361 5221.361 27262615.405 0.143208
127 42080 31520.87 10559.13 10559.13 111495135.49 0.25093
128 39210 32091.64 7118.362 7118.362 50671079.642 0.181545
129 39560 32476.41 7083.586 7083.586 50177187.981 0.179059
130 39180 32859.31 6320.689 6320.689 39951113.016 0.161324
131 36480 33201 3279.03 3279.03 10752040.385 0.089886
132 39760 33378.21 6381.786 6381.786 40727186.378 0.160508
133 35740 33723.18 2016.824 2016.824 4067579.6004 0.05643
134 31100 33832.19 -2732.19 2732.193 7464880.686 0.087852
135 28910 33684.51 -4774.51 4774.507 22795919.527 0.165151
136 34240 33426.43 813.5742 813.5742 661903.00879 0.023761
137 35510 33470.4 2039.597 2039.597 4159956.8753 0.057437
138 38330 33580.65 4749.349 4749.349 22556313.402 0.123907
139 32520 33837.37 -1317.37 1317.373 1735471.1436 0.04051
140 33590 33766.16 -176.163 176.1635 31033.570694 0.005245
141 38190 33756.64 4433.359 4433.359 19654670.896 0.116087
142 45550 33996.28 11553.72 11553.72 133488396.22 0.253649
143 43350 34620.81 8729.193 8729.193 76198802.81 0.201365
144 52440 35092.66 17347.34 17347.34 300930354.84 0.330804
145 65350 36030.35 29319.65 29319.65 859641877.84 0.448656
146 36580 37615.2 -1035.2 1035.196 1071630.589 0.0283
147 61970 37559.24 24410.76 24410.76 595885233.95 0.393913
148 50180 38878.74 11301.26 11301.26 127718478.58 0.225214
149 35880 39489.62 -3609.62 3609.619 13029348.439 0.100603
150 38560 39294.5 -734.504 734.5043 539496.63044 0.019048
151 39490 39254.8 235.1986 235.1986 55318.378667 0.005956
152 47150 39267.51 7882.485 7882.485 62133572.244 0.167179
153 53370 39693.6 13676.4 13676.4 187044050.38 0.256256
154 56460 40432.86 16027.14 16027.14 256869208.54 0.283867
155 40340 41299.19 -959.192 959.1921 920049.54039 0.023778
156 30280 41247.34 -10967.3 10967.34 120282632.35 0.362198
157 30020 0.05 0.945946 40654.51 -10634.5 10634.51 113092898.77 0.354248
158 33310 40079.68 -6769.68 6769.676 45828511.569 0.203233
159 35380 39713.75 -4333.75 4333.747 18781367.025 0.122491
160 36200 39479.49 -3279.49 3279.491 10755060.157 0.090594
161 32570 39302.22 -6732.22 6732.221 45322800.442 0.2067
162 25900 38938.32 -13038.3 13038.32 169997715.98 0.50341
163 29300 38233.54 -8933.54 8933.543 79808196.214 0.304899
164 42690 37750.65 4939.351 4939.351 24397187.466 0.115703
165 38540 38017.64 522.359 522.359 272858.89778 0.013554
166 39370 38045.88 1324.123 1324.123 1753302.6562 0.033633
167 39620 38117.45 1502.549 1502.549 2257653.8535 0.037924
168 41060 38198.67 2861.33 2861.33 8187210.7837 0.069687
169 34120 38353.34 -4233.34 4233.336 17921135.828 0.124072
170 40610 38124.51 2485.493 2485.493 6177674.1308 0.061204
171 42830 38258.86 4571.142 4571.142 20895337.131 0.106728
172 28950 38505.95 -9555.95 9555.947 91316122.478 0.330085
173 46950 37989.41 8960.591 8960.591 80292185.779 0.190854
174 35260 38473.77 -3213.77 3213.766 10328289.007 0.091145
175 34520 38300 -3780.05 3780.048 14288766.608 0.109503
176 37220 38095.72 -875.722 875.7215 766888.22827 0.023528
177 33200 38048.39 -4848.39 4848.385 23506839.507 0.146036
178 32560 37786.31 -5226.31 5226.31 27314320.075 0.160513
179 35270 37503.81 -2233.81 2233.807 4989894.1866 0.063334
180 27140 37383.06 -10243.1 10243.06 104920294.06 0.377416
181 31370 36829.38 -5459.38 5459.382 29804849.802 0.174032
182 36530 36534.28 -4.2801 4.280095 18.319215773 0.000117
183 29600 36534 -6934.05 6934.049 48081031.912 0.234258
184 32050 36159.24 -4109.24 4109.235 16885814.697 0.128213
185 29250 35937.11 -6687.11 6687.114 44717499.892 0.228619
186 23170 35575.65 -12405.6 12405.65 153900122.64 0.535419
187 31500 34905.07 -3405.07 3405.073 11594523.552 0.108098
188 33340 34721 -1381.02 1381.015 1907202.9738 0.041422
189 33040 34646.37 -1606.37 1606.366 2580410.8479 0.048619
190 33340 34559.54 -1219.54 1219.535 1487265.9745 0.036579
191 40230 34493.61 5736.386 5736.386 32906120.576 0.14259
192 29940 34803.69 -4863.69 4863.689 23655472.919 0.162448
193 29980 34540.79 -4560.79 4560.787 20800779.052 0.152128
194 37090 34294.26 2795.742 2795.742 7816172.9062 0.075377
195 18190 34445.38 -16255.4 16255.38 264237354.92 0.893644
196 15000 33566.71 -18566.7 18566.71 344722724.37 1.237781
197 31460 32563.1 -1103.1 1103.104 1216838.7873 0.035064
198 34730 32503.48 2226.523 2226.523 4957405.0798 0.06411
199 25000 32623.83 -7623.83 7623.83 58122776.359 0.304953
200 43040 32211.73 10828.27 10828.27 117251417.87 0.251586
201 45590 32797 12793 12793 163659762.27 0.280609
202 45450 33488.55 11961.45 11961.45 143076197.79 0.263178
203 42210 34135.12 8074.882 8074.882 65203713.552 0.191303
204 42660 34571.6 8088.402 8088.402 65422239.706 0.189602
205 39640 35008.81 4631.191 4631.191 21447926.925 0.116831
206 38230 35259.14 2970.856 2970.856 8825985.547 0.07771
207 33990 35419.73 -1429.73 1429.731 2044130.112 0.042063
208 34280 35342.45 -1062.45 1062.448 1128795.8335 0.030993
209 33350 35285 -1935.02 1935.018 3744296.2639 0.058022
210 25670 35180.42 -9510.42 9510.423 90448142.299 0.370488
211 30400 34666.35 -4266.35 4266.346 18201707.466 0.14034
212 27980 34435.73 -6455.73 6455.733 41676483.69 0.230727
213 32900 34086.77 -1186.77 1186.774 1408432.7695 0.036072
214 37030 34022.62 3007.376 3007.376 9044309.4991 0.081215
215 32270 34185.19 -1915.19 1915.185 3667933.6125 0.059349
216 26270 34081.66 -7811.66 7811.661 61022055.289 0.297361
217 29980 33659.41 -3679.41 3679.41 13538054.422 0.122729
218 30420 33460.52 -3040.52 3040.523 9244777.193 0.099951
219 34530 33296.17 1233.83 1233.83 1522336.5896 0.035732
220 29930 33362.86 -3432.86 3432.863 11784551.585 0.114696
221 28720 33177.3 -4457.3 4457.303 19867552.528 0.155199
222 30300 32936.37 -2636.37 2636.368 6950436.0596 0.087009
223 24640 32793.86 -8153.86 8153.862 66485458.842 0.33092
224 33330 32353.11 976.8877 976.8877 954309.5479 0.02931
225 34270 32405.92 1864.083 1864.083 3474805.2247 0.054394
226 41260 32506.68 8753.322 8753.322 76620640.861 0.21215
227 40560 32979.83 7580.169 7580.169 57458964.795 0.186888
228 32460 33389.57 -929.57 929.5697 864099.81734 0.028637
229 30070 33339.32 -3269.32 3269.323 10688470.813 0.108724
230 31140 33162.6 -2022.6 2022.603 4090921.0312 0.064952
231 31140 33053.27 -1913.27 1913.273 3660612.3179 0.061441
232 31720 32949.85 -1229.85 1229.853 1512537.2398 0.038772
233 24260 32883.37 -8623.37 8623.374 74362579.362 0.355456
234 31990 32417.25 -427.246 427.2457 182538.87763 0.013356
235 32090 32394.15 -304.151 304.1513 92508.02921 0.009478
236 30320 32377.71 -2057.71 2057.711 4234173.3823 0.067866
237 30010 32266.48 -2256.48 2256.483 5091716.0157 0.075191
238 13760 32144.51 -18384.5 18384.51 337990246.47 1.336084
239 33910 31150.75 2759.246 2759.246 7613440.1774 0.08137
240 31840 31299.9 540.0979 540.0979 291705.6952 0.016963
241 29980 31329.1 -1349.1 1349.097 1820061.6947 0.045
242 32810 31256.17 1553.828 1553.828 2414379.962 0.047358
243 34940 31340.16 3599.837 3599.837 12958825.298 0.103029
244 37090 31534.75 5555.251 5555.251 30860814.428 0.149778
245 40380 31835 8544.967 8544.967 73016464.901 0.211614
246 31470 32296.92 -826.923 826.9229 683801.47248 0.026277
247 29060 32252.22 -3192.22 3192.224 10190296.359 0.109849
248 30330 32079.67 -1749.67 1749.672 3061351.0264 0.057688
249 26970 31985.09 -5015.09 5015.095 25151176.283 0.185951
250 33810 31714 2095.991 2095.991 4393179.8015 0.061993
251 31200 31827.31 -627.305 627.3055 393512.14728 0.020106
252 33810 31793.4 2016.603 2016.603 4066687.409 0.059645
253 36830 31902.4 4927.597 4927.597 24281215.877 0.133793
254 34200 32168.76 2031.241 2031.241 4125939.0205 0.059393
255 45980 32278.56 13701.44 13701.44 187729566.62 0.297987
256 40820 33019.17 7800.825 7800.825 60852876.431 0.191103
257 39220 33440.84 5779.159 5779.159 33398680.278 0.147352
258 28670 33753.23 -5083.23 5083.228 25839205.351 0.177301
259 29920 33478.46 -3558.46 3558.459 12662628.852 0.118932
260 34030 33286.11 743.8903 743.8903 553372.85004 0.02186
261 36930 33326.32 3603.68 3603.68 12986509.968 0.097581
262 29080 33521.11 -4441.11 4441.113 19723488.744 0.152721
263 33540 33281.05 258.9467 258.9467 67053.408584 0.007721
264 33230 33295.05 -65.0504 65.05039 4231.5534031 0.001958
265 33190 33291.53 -101.534 101.5342 10309.184407 0.003059
266 36500 33286 3213.954 3213.954 10329501.463 0.088054
267 39340 33459.77 5880.227 5880.227 34577068.699 0.149472
268 37650 33777.62 3872.377 3872.377 14995302.25 0.102852
269 38164 33986.94 4177.059 4177.059 17447823.19 0.10945
270 31340 34212.73 -2872.73 2872.728 8252565.1605 0.091663
271 30870 34057.45 -3187.45 3187.445 10159807.161 0.103254
272 27310 33885.15 -6575.15 6575.151 43232609.4 0.24076
273 32870 33529.74 -659.737 659.7373 435253.35892 0.020071
274 33130 33494.08 -364.076 364.0759 132551.234 0.010989
275 24690 33474.4 -8784.4 8784.396 77165614.606 0.355788
276 23410 32999.56 -9589.56 9589.564 91959735.134 0.409635
277 21730 32481.21 -10751.2 10751.21 115588496.3 0.494763
278 29500 31900.06 -2400.06 2400.063 5760300.6104 0.081358
279 32450 31770.33 679.6705 679.6705 461951.97305 0.020945
280 29970 31807.07 -1837.07 1837.068 3374820.5148 0.061297
281 28540 31707.77 -3167.77 3167.767 10034750.675 0.110994
282 29170 31536.54 -2366.54 2366.537 5600496.3577 0.081129
283 26760 31408.62 -4648.62 4648.616 21609629.584 0.173715
284 28260 31157.34 -2897.34 2897.339 8394575.2762 0.102524
285 29770 31000.73 -1230.73 1230.726 1514687.4884 0.041341
286 29530 30934.2 -1404.2 1404.201 1971779.4797 0.047552
287 31700 30858.3 841.7021 841.7021 708462.39659 0.026552
288 20030 30903.8 -10873.8 10873.8 118239424.81 0.542875
289 24120 30316 -6196.02 6196.023 38390696.14 0.256883
290 27740 29981.1 -2241.1 2241.102 5022540.2613 0.08079
291 29700 29860 -159.962 159.9618 25587.77483 0.005386
292 31060 29851.32 1208.685 1208.685 1460918.9253 0.038915
293 30660 29916.65 743.3505 743.3505 552569.93389 0.024245
294 31130 29956.83 1173.169 1173.169 1376326.3744 0.037686
295 28940 30020.25 -1080.25 1080.245 1166929.6685 0.037327
296 16090 29961.85 -13871.9 13871.85 192428321.11 0.862141
297 34800 29212 5587.976 5587.976 31225479.853 0.160574
298 33680 29514.08 4165.924 4165.924 17354919.344 0.123691
299 34110 29739.26 4370.739 4370.739 19103355.293 0.128137
300 37330 29975.52 7354.482 7354.482 54088411.265 0.197013
301 26650 30373.06 -3723.06 3723.057 13861154.885 0.139702
302 21190 30171.81 -8981.81 8981.811 80672926.345 0.42387
303 34330 29686.31 4643.692 4643.692 21563879.372 0.135266
304 35750 29937.32 5812.682 5812.682 33787272.348 0.162593
305 42300 30251.52 12048.48 12048.48 145165942.57 0.284834
306 44960 30902.79 14057.21 14057.21 197605255.53 0.31266
307 40270 31662.64 8607.364 8607.364 74086719.522 0.213741
308 38600 32127.9 6472.101 6472.101 41888095.6 0.167671
309 43870 32477.74 11392.26 11392.26 129783542.63 0.259682
310 45400 33093.54 12306.46 12306.46 151448964.69 0.271067
311 49400 33758.75 15641.25 15641.25 244648583.1 0.316624
312 40570 34604.23 5965.773 5965.773 35590452.796 0.147049
313 39960 34926.7 5033.299 5033.299 25334100.884 0.125958
49141 9936018 9591386 344632 1887072 18779858280 70.89363
 Metode Eksponensial
70000

60000

50000

Peramalan
40000

30000

20000

10000

MAD 1101.06155 0
MSE 30643.40 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 19

MAPE 23% Periode

SEE 137039.62
Metode Eksponensial Smoothing

Permintaan
Column E

97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 289 301 313

Periode
 Metode
Perbandingan
Moving Average Eksponensial Kuadratik
MAD 5463.4295 1101.0615 1933.1391
MSE 54900826.0513 30643.4049 36463197.7122
MAPE 21% 22.65% 7%
SEE 7397.6632 137039.6230 6067.6245
 t dt Ft dt-Ft MR |MR| |MR| bar
1 16570 14572.39449976 1997.61 - -
2 16070 16567.35853146 -497.36 -2494.96 2494.964
3 21610 18458.43271135 3151.57 3648.93 3648.926
4 21760 20245.61703942 1514.38 -1637.18 1637.184
5 23460 21928.91151567 1531.09 16.71 16.70552
6 24680 23508.31614011 1171.68 -359.40 359.4046
7 24560 24983.83091273 -423.83 -1595.51 1595.515
8 22890 26355.45583354 -3465.46 -3041.62 3041.625
9 25620 27623.19090253 -2003.19 1462.26 1462.265
10 27160 28787.03611971 -1627.04 376.15 376.1548
11 28720 29846.99148507 -1126.99 500.04 500.0446
12 24890 30803.05699862 -5913.06 -4786.07 4786.066
13 33460 31655.23266035 1804.77 7717.82 7717.824
14 30150 32403.51847026 -2253.52 -4058.29 4058.286
15 33850 33047.91442836 802.09 3055.60 3055.604
16 31290 33588.42053464 -2298.42 -3100.51 3100.506
17 31090 34025.03678911 -2935.04 -636.62 636.6163
18 28880 34357.76319176 -5477.76 -2542.73 2542.726
15778.29
19 36750 34586.5997426 2163.40 7641.16 7641.163
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