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Наталия Орлова
Главный экономист Альфа-Банка
Состояние торгового баланса
Экспорт, % роста Импорт, % роста
40%
40%
35% 36%
33% 33% 35%
10% 7% 7%
6% 6% 10%
3%
1%
0% 0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2009
1Кв11
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1Кв11
-5%
-10% -10%
-20% -20%
-30% -30%
Номинальный рост импорта -30%
Номинальный рост экспорта Реальный рост импорта
Реальный рост экспорта -34%
-36%
-40% -40%
2
Прогнозы текущего счета
Равновесная цена на нефть для текущего счета Сценарии текущего счета
90 100%
100
80
75 80%
70
60% 50
59
60
40%
50
50 0
44 44
20% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
40
30 0% -50
30
22
-20%
20 15
14 14 -100
12
10 -40%
2010
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
27 110
28 100
29 90
30 80
31 70
32 60
руб/$ $/барр
33 50
41.4 120
40 Активы
100 2003-2008
20
2009-2010
-0.1
0 80
-1.9 38%
-8.1 -8.9
-20 -15
60 Розничные кредиты Розничные депозиты
-24.8
-40
-35,3 34%
40 77% 5%
-60
-56.9
-1%
20
26%
-80
4%
-133.9 8%
-100 0
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
2008
2009
2001
2004
2007
2010
42%
41%
30
30
25
25
20
20
12.3
15 26.2 9.0
26.1 15
10
16.6 10
8.8
10.8 5.0 3.3
5
5
2.7 4.0 4.6 5.4
0 3.7
0 0.8
янв .11 фев.11 мар.11 апр.11
-5 -8.6 -8.6
-12.4 -5
-15
-15
1Кв10 2Кв10 3Кв10 4Кв10 1Кв11
Валютный курс сейчас близок к своему равновесному значению, но оно сильно зависит
от динамики цен на нефть. $10 дол/барр изменения цен на нефть приводит к
изменению курса на 1,0-1,5 руб за доллар.
7
Раскрытие информации
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