Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 12

26 2011 .

atabyldiev@bcc-invest.kz

Beta
, 52 .

5 2011
1- 2011 .

, .


.
, .


BRENT USD/KZT.

, DCF-FCFFF
15 900 , 4 600
.

988 .
RDGZ KZ
KASE Index
0.73
13 850 21 000

13 850

15 900


, 52 .

RDGZp KZ
13 500 20 510
13 650


, 52 .

KMG LI
$14.51 $24.93

$15.07

$18.30


Moodys
Standard and Poors
Fitch

Baa3 /
BB+ /
BBB- /


(RDGZ KZ) 6 20 500 15 900
, , ,
.
(KMG LI)
,
USD/KZT 145.20, $18.30 ,
.

RDGZ KZ: , 15 900


KMG LI: , $18.30

BCC Invest
, . , 050022, . , 100, 5
: +7 (727) 244-32-30, : +7 (727) 244-32-31
E-mail: info@bcc-invest.kz, Web: www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .

1- 2011
5 2011 1- 2011 .
:
1- 2011
1 2010
1 2011
,

--
.

USD/KZT
147.26
146.00
-0.86%
USD/KZT
147.46
146.25
-0.82%
Brent, USD/BOE
77.29
111.09
43.73%
, USD/BOE
63.47
90.03
41.85%

73.10
105.23
43.95%

75.71
109.63
44.80%

20.52
26.48
29.04%
, USD/BOE
6.17
6.35
2.92%

7.48
7.66
2.41%

7.22
7.62
5.54%

1.50
1.45
-3.33%
/ , USD/BOE

12.68
33.81
166.64%

12.67
33.77
166.54%

,
4 316
4 115
-4.66%
,
4 310
4 165
-3.36%

3 459
3 293
-4.80%

851
872
2.47%

296 605 166


400 058 225
34.88%

288 928 362
391 926 855
35.65%

272 622 128


369 776 103
35.64%

16 306 234
22 150 752
35.84%

7 676 804
8 131 370
5.92%

193 110 245
308 223 836
59.61%
/
46 684 876
117 456 010
151.59%
/
34 086 102
41 516 195
21.80%

28 255 859
28 915 983
2.34%

29 284 805
36 603 109
24.99%
,
16 389 840
21 584 281
31.69%

12 343 565
14 425 521
16.87%

4 530 701
5 624 310
24.14%

5 495 204
5 382 708
-2.05%

4 138 707
4 406 855
6.48%

1 041 336
13 366 578
1183.60%
,
2 272 137
2 898 754
27.58%

1 658 576
4 459 987
168.90%

562 441
2 128 464
278.43%

991 613
3 924 375
295.76%

5 374 483
5 530 706
2.91%

103 494 921
91 834 389
-11.27%

20 863 493
15 375 218
-26.31%

-3 943 942
-3 788 517
-3.94%

-2 837 109
-4 735 638
66.92%

18 848 047
48 578 975
157.74%

136 425 410
147 264 427
7.95%

-36 391 304
-32 926 292
-9.52%

26.7%
22.4%
-16.18%

100 034 106
114 338 135
14.30%

-581 671
-810 925
39.41%
,
99 452 435
113 527 210
14.15%

1.37
1.58
15.33%

1.37
1.58
15.33%
:


, .

.
, .

BRENT USD/KZT.

www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .


12 2010
50% (), 51%
() 50% Mangistau Investments B.V (MIBV), 100%
().
750 . ,
350 . 50% , 70 .
51% 330 . 50% Mangistau
Investments B.V.
. ,
, 1 499 . , 116 .
,
53 . 1 330 .
MIBV.
,
27%, 2
406 . (18.5%).
,
. 2009 0.93 .
(19 . ), 30 .
(217 . ). Caspian
Investments Resources.
:
, - , - ,
. 2009
0.22 . (4.5 . ),
5.6 . (41 . ).
Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO).

. 2007 5.7 . , 2008
5.5 . 2009 5.7 . . 2
2009 78.9 . (556 . ).
.
15

.
. ,
3- 2010 .
, ,
1- 2011 ,
, .
.
, , 50%
MIBV () ,
50% 51% 2012 . ,
,
,
.
100% 50% ,
51% 50% Mangistau Investments B.V

.
,
, .
www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .


,
,
,
.

,
:

: Gaffney, Cline & Associates Ltd

: Gaffney, Cline & Associates Ltd

(Gaffney, Cline & Associates Ltd) 31


2010 (2P)
232 . ( 1.7 . ). 2010
24.5 . , 6 2011 23.1 . .

(2P) 2014 , 25.6 . ,
2021 23.4 . , 2031 14.3 .
.
2011
8.1 . , 7.6% , .
, , 5.95 . 5.3
. , 2011
2.8 . .
,
2012 2013 2.8 . , 3
1% ,
, 2012 , 5
2% .
www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .



.
,
.
:

: (http://www.rdopen.kz/rus/materials/)


-9
-9 -
.
5894 2.
, , , ,
.
-9 2010 2 - 1 600
1 850 .
. , -9 3
400 2 D 40 .
-9
- 2011-2012 .

11 2011 . 100%

, 100 ,
.

www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .



.
, , 5 000
2. ,
, .
,

. 2001
2005 . 2006
,
2010 .
(Gaffney, Cline & Associates Ltd) 31
2010 (2P) 6 015
356 . , . ,
, 22
480 ,
,
.
.

, .


.
6030 2.
, - -,
.
-1, 2010 ,
1 100 1 500 23.2, 24.0 19.2 ,
. .

.

2011
. .
. 2011 .

27 2010 100% ,
,
.
.
12.9 . ...

.
1
27 2010 100% ,
1
,
.
123-146 . ... ( ) 232
. ... ( ).
.

www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .


11 2011 . 100%

, 1
.

.
,
11 2011 . 100%
,
, .
11
2011 , ,
, 1.5 .
.


. , 2010
( ), (
).
,
.

19 2011 50% Ural
Group Limited, 100% ,

, - .
90 -
40 - ,
.
,
,
. 2010 , ,
, 1+2
203.4 . .
31 2010 BG Group PLC ( )

(P1722), White Bear ( ).
35% .
P1722
.
.
, ,
, 25-30 . .
. .

, 2011
23 , 2 ,
5 -9, 4 , 1
, , 1
1 , 3
, 1 , 5
. 2 510 2D 739 2 3D
.
www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .


-9, -,
,
,
.
1,
.
35%
.
50% Ural Group Limited ,
, , , , .
, .
,
, .



DCF-FCFFF.


.
,
, BRENT
USD/KZT.

:
DCF-FCFFF
2009 2010 2011
--
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
CAGR
CAGR
7
6
USD/KZT,
147.70
147.00
146.00
-0.68%
145.20
145.00
146.25
147.50
150.00
0.22%
0.34%
ICE BRENT,
76.36
80.55
110.00
36.56%
99.00
101.00
102.00
103.00
101.00
4.08%
3.84%
, .

CAGR
5
0.65%
0.40%

5 953
2 813
8 766

5 300
2 800
8 100

-10.97%
-0.46%
-7.60%

5 720
2 800
8 520

5 610
2 800
8 410

5 500
2 770
8 270

5 390
2 730
8 120

5 280
2 680
7 960

-2.47%
0.04%
-1.68%

-1.98%
-0.80%
-1.59%

-1.59%
-0.87%
-1.35%

, .

6 946
7 099

2 020
1 667

8 966
8 766
: , BCC Invest

6 200
1 900
8 100

-12.66%
13.98%
-7.60%

6 620
1 900
8 520

6 510
1 900
8 410

6 370
1 900
8 270

6 220
1 900
8 120

6 060
1 900
7 960

-1.93%
-0.87%
-1.69%

-2.60%
2.20%
-1.59%

-1.75%
0.00%
-1.35%

6 289
2 673
8 962

,
,

.
.

, Mangistau Investments B.V ,
.
12%
0%,
.

15 900 .
DCF-FCFFF
:
www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .


DCF-FCFFF
.
2009
2010
2011
2012

485 493 479


609 242 398 751 999 599 724 831 333
EBITDA
186 043 210
222 235 467 185 578 350 170 696 042

-46 385 754
-88 251 917 -106 400 000 -81 500 000

-75 745 829


-57 445 263 -53 850 910 -48 141 949

63 911 627
76 538 287 25 327 440 41 054 093

1.12

36 655 440



2P,


. .
, . . / .
.
50%
366 500
50%
183 250
$8.00
50%
225 688
50%
112 844
$8.00
33%
364 670
33%
120 341
$8.00



1 , KZT
1 , .

12%

0%
: , BCC Invest

2013
729 785 752
147 033 069
-70 200 000
-38 299 040
38 534 029
1.25
30 719 092

2014
731 844 784
136 518 566
-65 200 000
-33 138 717
38 179 849
1.40
27 175 663

2015
732 769 109
123 978 630
-59 200 000
-27 180 651
37 597 980
1.57
23 894 196

. .

. .


. .

1 466 000
902 752
962 729

215 502 000


132 704 544
141 521 134

-116 203 500


-13 423 980
-115 766 147

2016
719 183 384
105 085 905
-50 200 000
-18 893 535
35 992 370
1.76
20 423 038
138 867 429
170 191 979
309 059 408
598 540 042

. .
99 298 500
119 280 564
25 754 987
244 334 051
1 151 933 500
72 361 272
15 900
$18.30

(RDGZ KZ)
6 20 500 15 900 , ,
, .
(KMG LI) ,
USD/KZT 145.20, $18.30 ,
.
,
, :
9 (
$300 .)
9 ;
9 ;
9 ;
9 .
,
, :
9 ;
9 ;
9 , ;
9 .

, ,
:
9 ,
, ;
9 ;
9
, ;
9 ;
9 ;
9 - .

www.bcc-invest.kz

26 2011 .

1.


.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

486 974 879 604 993 422 485 493 479 609 242 398 751 999 599 724 831 333 729 785 752 731 844 784 732 769 109 719 183 384

-68 796 006
-6 622 820 -36 208 000 -38 448 960 -37 758 000 -37 264 500 -36 698 000 -36 360 000

-58 673 500 -95 895 096 -151 180 168 -130 722 907 -144 753 128 -144 275 660 -143 475 327 -139 393 605

-17 948 868 -25 312 574

-55 087 266 -70 932 591 -124 125 432 -119 209 667 -119 730 985 -119 734 413 -119 517 212 -116 803 356

-48 247 039 -53 135 541 -53 793 843 -57 794 777 -53 482 650 -57 396 756 -57 271 570 -57 469 645 -57 573 940 -58 084 519

-144 638 578 -149 923 351 -163 051 020 -189 803 310 -247 834 000 -258 637 000 -277 337 000 -294 567 000 -313 583 000 -329 765 000

276 140 394 307 825 950 154 887 850 186 749 339 139 169 350 120 416 042
92 935 069
78 533 566
61 921 630
38 776 905

27 030 779
45 374 578
46 758 905
38 039 785
30 800 000
30 800 000
30 800 000
30 800 000
30 800 000
30 800 000

-5 787 911
-3 146 631
-3 241 289
-7 495 555
-7 600 000
-7 600 000
-7 600 000
-7 600 000
-7 600 000
-7 600 000

-8 042 582
696 455
89 534 814
-3 459 449
-4 700 000

859 828

17 429 850
57 623 884
-2 467 551
78 113 033
92 800 000
80 300 000
62 000 000
52 400 000
41 300 000
25 900 000


307 630 358 408 374 236 285 472 729 291 947 153 250 469 350 223 916 042 178 135 069 154 133 566 126 421 630
87 876 905

-150 511 277 -167 091 866 -75 745 829 -57 445 263 -53 850 910 -48 141 949 -38 299 040 -33 138 717 -27 180 651 -18 893 535

49%
41%
27%
20%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%

157 119 081 241 282 370 209 726 900 234 501 890 196 618 440 175 774 093 139 836 029 120 994 849
99 240 980
68 983 370
- :
1 , KZT
1 , KZT

: www.kmgep.kz, BCC Invest

www.bcc-invest.kz

74 015 512

74 015 512

74 246 410

72 663 767

72 361 272

72 361 272

72 361 272

72 361 272

72 361 272

72 361 272

2 123
563
26.52%

3 260
656
20.12%

2 871
704
24.52%

3 232
800
24.75%

2 717
748
27.50%

2 429
729
30.00%

1 932
580
30.00%

1 672
502
30.00%

1 371
412
30.00%

953
286
30.00%

10

26 2011 .


BCC Invest
, . , 050022, . , 100, 5
: +7 (727) 244-32-32, : +7 (727) 244-32-31
E-mail: info@bcc-invest.kz
Web: www.bcc-invest.kz
:

: +7 (727) 244-32-32 (. 7218)
E-mail: traisova@bcc-invest.kz
:

: +7 (727) 2-44-32-30 (), 244-32-32 (. 7214)
E-mail: sbiniyazova@bcc-invest.kz
:

: +7 (727) 2-598-598, 244-32-32 (. 7215)
E-mail: atabyldiev@bcc-invest.kz

: +7 (727) 2-598-598, 244-32-32 (. 7240)
E-mail: dzhurekbayev@bcc-invest.kz
: www.bcc-invest.kz
Bloomberg: BCCK <GO>
Auto Call Center (
)
,
- Auto Call Center.
, ( ),
, (. )

8- 8000 8000 88 * 5156

2 598-598 244- 32- 44 * 5156

www.bcc-invest.kz

11

26 2011 .



, , , .
, , "BCC Invest" .
"BCC Invest", ,

. , ,
.
, ,
.
"BCC Invest", ,
, . "BCC Invest",
/ ,
- .
"BCC Invest" ,
. ,
, . ,
, ,
.
, , ,
- "BCC Invest".

.
BCC Invest 2011

www.bcc-invest.kz

12