Д.Мерфи.Технический анализ фьючерсных рынков

John J.
Murphy
Technical Analysis of the
Futures Markets:
A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and
Applications
New York Institute of Finance A Prentice-Hall Company
1996
:
.,
.
.
.
. - .:
, 1996. - 592
.
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''.
.
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.
Copyright 1986 by Prentice Hall AU Rights Reserved
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2.
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3.............................................................................................................................................. 74
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(PERCENTAGE RETRACEMENTS) ................... 82
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5.
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(K%D)................................................................................................................ 269
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11.
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1981
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(stock index futures),
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18
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Standarand & Poor's 500
Standard & Poor's

500.
1982
.
-
(CSCE)
(Housing Starts)
(Consumer Price Index for

Wage Earners).
(Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index).
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1984 r ("Commodity Year Book"; Commodity Research
Bureau, Inc)
CRB
19
1970(
.
. 1.3).
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CRB

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27
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CRB
(CPI-W),
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1985
1985
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10%.
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.
40
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Standard & Poor's 500,
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/
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(advance-decline line),
(short-interest ratio),
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23
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1982
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Street, 1973).
28
, 1.4 "" ,
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(Market
Technicians Association),
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1984
.)
.
29
2.
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1984
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Speculation, S.A.Nelson).
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30
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1922
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Robert Rhea),
1932
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5.
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. 2.2
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(
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S&P
500. , S&P 500
Value Line,
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(),
.
, Value Line
S&P 500,
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1920 1975
68%
67%
S&P 500.
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37
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(Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Robert D.Edwards and John Magee).
38
3.
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(daily bar chart)
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3.1.
. 3.1
39
, .

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(closing prise).
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3.2.
3.3.
()
().

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40
ADP Comtrend's Videcom,

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41
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42
(.
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3.6
10
50
55.
-10%.
10
20 (
100%)
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20
40
40 80.
1 2
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44
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45
. 3.9 .
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48
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300
1983
500
400
,
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400
).
300
450
350
300
65
250
. 1974
200
, 1976
,
100
. ,
(protective stops)
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(trendline) (.
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75
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(1). 1
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4. 14
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(channel line),
(return line),
(.
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.),
(
2).
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4).
5),
(
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. 4.168 ,
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5)
(6).
(
.
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(
.
. 4.18).
(
. . 4.19).
,
,

81
. 4.18
(5)

.
, 4-6
3-5.
,
,
. 4.19
,
(3-5),
. 4 3-5.
(PERCENTAGE
RETRACEMENTS)
82
50%-
100
200.
50%,
150,
:
,
50%-
,-
1/3 2/3.
33%,
- 66%.
, ^
ec-ira
.. @
..
"^
33%-50%-
(
.
. 4.20
).
66%.

66%,
100%
.
.4.20
50% ,
50%-
.
1/3,
- 2/3 .
83
. 4. 20, 50%
,
86 76 (
5 , 81 ).
2/3
.
,
81
-.
,
,
, ,
, -50%, 33% 66% -
: 38% 62%.
"
":
3^__3^%,
- 62% 66%.
-40% 60%,
.
,
,
""
: 1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, 7/8, 8/8.
3/8 (38%), 4/8 (50%) 5/8 (62%)
: 1/3 (33%) 2/3

(66%).
84
, -
(speed resistance lines)
(speedlines)
).
(
.
. 4.21).
1/3
2/3.
1/3 2/3
(
.
. 4.216 ).
),
1/3 2/3
33%- 66%-
2/3).
1/3).
1/3
,
,
,
,
85
.4.21
.
! 2 . -
2/3, -
1/3.
. .
.
. 4.216
.
86
.4.21
.
2/3,
,
. 1/3
, .
1/3,
-. ,
,
,
,
, .
(2/3)
(1/3),
(reversal day).
(top
reversal day),
(bottom reversal day),
(buying or selling climax),
(key reversal day).
(two-day reversal).

87
.
.4.22 .
,
.
. 4.226
. ,
"
".
.4.22
S&P 500
,
"".
.
.4.22
-
,
88
(outside day).
"
"
"
".
(
.
. 4.23'6).
"
" (overbought). .
.
.4.23
, .
. 4. 236
, .
89
,
"
"
"
"
. (
,
-
"
".
: "
."
.)
"
".
"
".
90
,
,
: "

".
,
(common gap),
"
"
(breakaway gap),
"
"
(runaway or measuring gap) ,
,
"
" (exhaustion gap).
"
".
"
".
"
"), (
"
")
"
".

"
".
91
.4.24
. "
"
. "" (
"" ), ""
"
"
"" .
, "" ""
.
"
"
),
(
.
. 4.24
-).
92
. 4. 246
,
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. "
, , , , "
,
. ,
.
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,
93
. 4.24s
,
,
.
,

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,
).
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"
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94
"
"
"
".

"
"
"
"
"
"
.
,
"
"
95
5.
,
"
", "
", "
-
",
"
"
.
,
,
,
.
,
:
"
" (head and shoulders),
(triple tops and bottoms),

96
(double tops and bottoms), V-
"",
"spike")

"
" (rounding pattern or saucer).
),
:
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
.
5.
.
6.
,
,
,
,
,
"
".
97
.
,
100%
"
",
),
(count).
),

"
"
.
,
.
,
98
: "
",
7.
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"
".
"
"
"
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"
".
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.
. 5.1 ).
),

.
,
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,
-
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).
:
,
99
. 5. la "
" . ()
. () ,
. ,
.
,
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,
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.
5.16 "
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.
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100
(
),
(
). (
D.)
( 1)

D.
:
,
.
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D).
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2.
).
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"
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D)
, D, F.
"
".

"
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D (
G),
, ,
"
"

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"
:
101
1.
.
2.
(
),
).
3.
).
4.
(
D).
5.
),
"
" (
).
6.
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.
7.

"
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G)
("
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("
"
).
3%-
"
" (
"
").
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" (
"
",
("
")
"
".

"
").
"
",
.
,
"
".
"
" (
)
"
".
"
".
102

"
"
100,
"
" -
80.
20.
20
"
"
(
. 5.1) "
"
82,
62 (82 - 20 = 62).
,
CD).

2.
),
4,
"
".
"
"
),
).
30
100.
30.
"
" -
.
,

,
,

"
".
100%
50%- 66%-

,I
103
30.
32
32.

""
"
"
"
"
(head and shoulders bottom or inverse head and shoulders) -
5.2
,
"
"
,

"
".
"
"

,

.
,
,
"
"
,
,
.
,
"
"
"
".
. 5.2"
'.
.
"" ,
. ,
104

, .
-,
"
",
,
, "
",
-
"
"
"
"
.
"
"
,

,
"
".
"
"
"
".

"
"
"
"
105
. 5.26 "" . "" ,

"" - . "",
- , V
.
CRB
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.
"
"
, "
"
"
".
""
"
"
,
,
,
"
"
.
,
, ,
""
"
",
"
" (complex head and shoulders pattern).
"
",
"
".
"
".
"
"
.
106
""
. .
5.3
,
"
"
"
".
"
",
5.3 "".
, () .
.:
,
, (
),
(1).
""
"
"
D),
50%-
66%-
D ,
,
"
"

"
"
"
"
""
"
"
"
",
"
".
107
,
"
"

"" -
, .
"
" (failed head and shoulders pattern).
,
,
-
(
"
"
.
-
,
. -
16,
,
,
,
""
"
".
"
"
6,
"
",
(
.
. 5.4
-).
,
"
",
(.
. 5.4
).
: "
"
, ,
108
).
5.4. "
",
,
.
. ,

,
. ,
.
. 5.46
.
"",
,
.
,
,
.
"
".
"
",
109
. 5.4. ,
-
250. ,
(220)
. ,
. ,
,
"
",
,
(
.
. 5.5
-).
. 5.5
"",
-
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"
"
,
.
110
. 5.5. (
),
.
,
,
. ,
, D
.
. ,
, .

.
. 5.56 . .
,
,
.
.
(
.
. 5.5
)

(
);
),
(
)
.
"
"?
,
111
. 5.5s .
5800,
- .
6116,
.
,
72.
.
6916.
),
112
. 5.5. --
,
30.
. -
,
. ,
113
. 5.5
. "
",
1983 . ,
,
.
150
174. ,
1984 .
.
148 .
, ,
.
. -
,
, 1%-3%-). -
, ,
114
"
" (
. .
5.65.66).
.
""
"
" "
"

. 5.7
.
.
. 5.76
. 5.6. "
".
,

, . ,
115
.
. 5. 66 ,
.
,
.
. ,
.
,
. (
.)
.
. 5.7a

. ,
,

,
.
. 5.76
.
, .
,
,
.
116
""
: "
", "
", "
", "
".
"
" (inverted).
5.8
5.86
"
".
. 5.8
"" .
, ,
. ,
"".
"".
(. . 5.86).
"
",
"".
117
,
,
"
",
,

"
"
(
),
"
".
. 5.86
""
. ,
. .
. ,
.
(
), ,
(
).
"
",
.
,
"
".
. .
, "
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. 70-
, 80-
"
"
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118
. 5.8
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".
,
.
.
V-" "
V-
"
")
,
,
,-
.
-
"
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, V-
. V-
4).
, ,
V-
(
. 5.9
-
).
119
V-
. 5.9V-
"". , ,
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,
. " "

..
. 5.96 V-
""
.
,

"
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, -
"
"
V-
V-
"
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120
. 5.9V-.
V-
, .
.
50%),
).
"
"
121
7).

(trailing protective stops).
V-
V-
V-
(extended V).
. 5.10
.
"
" (
6).

V-
V-
V-
V-
(
. . 5.106).
122
. 5.10a V-.
,
. ,
,
, .

.
.
. 5.106 V-.
. V-
, ,
,
.
"
",
, "
" V-
"".
,
"

",
V-
"
".
: "
".
123
6.
"
".
"
" -
,
,
(symmetrical),
(ascending)
(descending) (

"
" (expanding triangle) "
" (broadening formation),
).
.
-.
(
.
. 6.1
)
"
" (coil).
124
(
.
. 6.16)
. 6.1a
.
.
,
. - ,
,
, .
. 6.16 .
. .
. 6.1.
(
. .1),
125
"
" -

,

, . 6.1
,
,
6.1
1,
2,
3.
,
3
1.
3.
2.
(1,2, 3, 4)
(
. . 6.1
)-
).
3/4
3/4 ,
).
.

/
126
'
-].
_
"
'
'
-
.
,
,

,
. . 6.2-
127
.6.2

.
(-)
,
(
) .
(
)
),

128
. 6.26
()
, , (242) .
129
. 6.2
.
1983
.
7.00 8.00 .
.
. 6.
,
-
.
,
130
,
,
,

-

. 6.
. ,
.
.
.
() .
. 6.36
131
.
,
..

. ,
,
.
- "" "
",
. , .
. .
.
,
.

V-
. .
,
132
. 6.
. ,
, -
. 47,4 %
(
).
,
50%.
"
".
133
(
.
. 6.4).
. 6.4
(-), ().
134
. 6.46
,
, ,
. ,
"
"
,
6.00
. , , ,
_
^
~~
. ,
" "
"
"
135
. "
",
. 6.5
,

"
"
"
"
(
.
.5
).
(
1, 3 5)
2
4),
(4),
(2).
. 6.5"".
.
, .
"
"
6).
136
50%
.
,
"
"
"
".
. 6.56 "".
, .
"
" -
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"
" -
137
.
(
.
. .
) ,
"
"
.
.
. , .

,
.
, .
,

.
"
"
"
"
138
. 6.66 .
, - .
. 6. 6
.
139
"
" "
"
,
. -
(.
6.7),
. 6.7a
.
,
, , .
.
140
. 6.76 .
, .
.
,
.

"
".
"
"
. "

"
.
,
,

"
"
141
. 6. 7
.
, .
^[
__
142
. 6.7
, .
- .
.
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
.
5.
.
6.

.
7.
.
8.
143
(wedge)
,
,
(
.
. .8
)

(
.
. 6.86)
. . 8,
.
,
, .
.
. 6. 86 . ,
.
. .8
. () - "
"
.
(-) - , . -
(). (-) ,
.
144
. 6.8
, .

.
.
145
, .
.
,
.
,
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,
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).
,

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,
(
.
. .9
-
).
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)
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"
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. 6.
.

146
"
".
.

.
. 6.96
.
,
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, , .
.
(
.
. 6.9
)
"
"
"
"
"
".
"
",
"
",
"
"
,
(
"
"
10)
147
. 6.9""
.
"
"
. ,
"
"
15
"
",
148
"
"
"

" (

""
"

" (measured move)
"
",
, -

(.
. .
). "
"
).
. 6.10"
" .
(C-D)
(-).
(-)

().
"
"
.
.
:
(

)
),
(-).

D),
,
(-).
149
()
"
",
. 6.106 "
" . ,
(C-D)
(-).
() ,
, ,
""
"
",
,
"
",
. (

150
!)

"
",
"
",
(. 6.1 la)
"
".
(
. 6.116)
"
",
. (
).
. 6. "".
. 6. "".
"
"
"".
).
"
",
(
.
. ,
.
151
: "
".

. 6.11
(),
"",
.
"",
,
"".
.
,
-
152
,
,

"
"

9,
,
,
"
" "
"
.

"
",
(How Charts Are Used

in Commodity Price Forecasting, W. L. Jiler).
"
"
"
."
1972
"-
" (
"
").
""
"
" (Technical Reliability Index).
153
70%-
, "
"
,
,
154
10,
,
.
155
7.
:
,
3.
.
,
(
.
.
- 1 10
, -
,
156
(
.
. 7.1).
(
)
(. . 7.1).
).

),
.
(
.
. 7.1)
),
157
. 7.1
,
. ,
.
.
.
1.
2.
(
)
3.
4.
158
.
,
159
. 7.2 ,
.
, ,
,
. ,
, -
,
-
. -
.
).
,
(
. . 7.2).
).
(
. 7.3 7.4).
160
. 7.3 , ,
,
. ,
, .
, -
, , , .
.7. 4
, .
161
,
.
. ,

!).
,
,
"
",
"
"

"
"
(
.
. 7.5).
5
.
. ,
. 7.
162
.
.
,

.
.
OBV (On Balance Volume)
(
.
. 7.6
-7.8).
"
"
OBV.
.
-
"
" (Granville's New Key to Stock Market

Profits, J. Granville).
OBV
OBV

163
. 7.6
. , "
"
.
.7. 66
-
OBV. ,
(
.
. 7.6)
.
.7.6
OBV.
OBV.
164
^,
).
OBV
OBV
(
),
. ,
10 000
OBV.
OBV
),
,
,
OBV
.
,
)
(
).
^-
OBV
OBV.
.
VA (Volume Accumulation)
OBV
OBV -
OBV.
165
. 7.7OBV (
).
OBV,
.
. 7.76 OBV , ,
, .
, .
166
. 7. 8, ,
S&P 500.
. 7. 86 OBV. ,
-
.
167

(Volume Accumulation - VA),
"
" -
-
.
).
OBV
VA
),
. (.
. 7.9- 7.106.)
. ,
10 000,
:
VA == {[(C-L) - (H-C)]/(H-L)} x V
(high), -
(close), L -
(low), V -
(volume).
. 7, ,
.
.7.96 OBV () VA (
).
.
168
. 7. ?0
.
. 7.106
. OBV ()

VA () .
VA;

169
VA
OBV.

VA

(
.
10).
(Demand Index),
"
".
. "
"
OBV,
).
OBV
),
).
OBV
. -
,
. -
170
? ,
OBV.
(uptick)
(downtick)
.

.
1.
),

).
2.
).
"
".
3.
.
4.
.
171
:
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
:
1.
(
.
. 7.11).
2.

(.
. 7.12).
172
. 7.
-
,
, ,
. , .
173
. 7.11

- , ,
, ,
.
3.
"
",
,
,
. 7.5,
).
174
. 7.12 ,
,
.
2 . ,
,
. ,
.
,
.
"
",
),
,
,
),
.
,
175
).
"
)^
",
.
4.
,
"
"
"
",
.
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
.
5.

.
6.
.
7.
.
8.
.
9.
.
10.
.
176
(blowoffs)
(selling climaxes) -
(
.
. 7.13).
).
""
"
" (Commitments of Traders Report)
(CFTC)
: "
", "
",
"
".
"
".
177
. /. (3
.
, (
!) ,
.
,
"
")
(
.
. 7.14).
"
" (
.
. 7.14
"
",
: "%
", "%

", "%
-
" "%
/
"
(
"
").
,
,
31-
1984

14% 43%
"- 29"
29% (43% - 14%).
"- 2"
2%
.
178
100%.
- 14%
,
19% -
62% -
95%.
5%.
(
.
. 7.14),
"
"
1985
"

" (Commodity Year Book),
CRB,
.
"
".

: "
,
. 7.14
(
,
) 31 1984 .
.
40%,
5 %
".
CRB
. 7.15
CRB
).
.
179
"
"
CRB Futures Chart Service 18

1985
): "

"
."
21% (

15%).
(16 % -
17% ).
8%),
(
6%).
29%
,
(-8% +21%),
- 22% (+6% -16%).
-

.
(+21%),

(+14%),
(+21%)
(+23%).
(+10%)
(+14%),
(-10%)
180
181
.7.15 ,
70 %
).
).
(62 %)
(63 %).
NYSE Composite (62 %) Value

Line (77%).
"

"
) -

.
182
"
" -
. (
10).
, "

" -
.
,
.
"
" (Charting Commodity Market Price

Behavior, L. Dee Belveal).
.

,
183
8.

. (
.)
1,
.
184
).
(Commodity Research Bureau).
,
185
. (

. . ).
""
"
",
"
" (
- "
")
1983.
"
" (CSI),
"
" (Perpetual Contract CSI Perpetual Contract -
).
"
"
. "

"
).
"
",
20
(20
).
"
26
28
).
(20
"
".
"
"
CSI.

"
"
186
""
"
"

"
" (Perpetual Index).
"
"
"
"
CRB (CRB look-alike index).
CRB (CRB Futures Index),
"
"
,
,
"
"
--

CSI
: 1)
, 2)
,
,
"
"
187
)

,
'
"
"
, "
"
188
(
. 8.7).
35.00 56.00)
.
. 8.1
CRB.
.
,
50%
(.
8.8 8.11
),
. 8.5 8.12).
.
(
. 8.10)
"
",
1964 1972
.
CRB (
. 8.2)
189
20
,
,
"
" "
"
Standard & Poor's 500.
(

).
CRB
190
(Commodity
Research Bureau Futures Price Index),

27
CRB
CRB
. (

.)
, 1970-
),

CRB
(1980
),
CRB
CRB
20
CRB

).

. 8.1,
CRB
20
1970-

1980-?
191
1970-
,
1970-
1980-
1980
1980
. 8.12
1980
,
1974
1975-1977
,
192
1-7.
.
,
,
10-30-
^ ,
- J
.
,
(. 8.5 8.6).
80%
,
95%
,
20
193
. 8.1 CRB
194
. 8.2 .
. ,
, 1982 .
195
. 8.3 .
,
.
.
, .
196
. 8.4 CRB.
. ,
. ,
, .
.
197
. 8. 5 , 1980 ,
1974. .
. 8.6 ,
$1.00, 60. 1977 1980
.
198
. 8. /,
3556.
"" 1979 , 20.
. 8. 8
199
. 8.9
,
, .
.8.10
200
. 8. 11
201

.8.12
202
. 8. f3a ,
"" ( 1.05 70 ).
203
8. 14(8.14)
73-16.
(8.146) ,
.
204
. 3.15
(8.15). (8.156)
, 1982 1983 .
205
. 8.16
.
1979 .
206
. 8.17 S&P 500. ,

, . 1983-84 ,
, 1982-83 .
,
1984 150.
1984
163. .
.
,
,
- ,
207
9.
,-
10 (
). "
"
(
. .
),
"
"
10 (
).
208
,
,
"
"),
,
("
")

,

-' .
(
. . 9.1 ).
209
.9.1
.
,
,
""
,

.
,
- .
. 9.16
.
. (
)
,
, .
,
,
.
, -
.
(price band)
.
.
210
. 9.2a
(
) -
(). ,
-(
(
).
).
- 10%,
20%.
211
. 9.26
: -
(
) -(). -
,

.
"
"
(55
: 10+9+8. . .+1)
.
-
. ,
, -
.
212
(
,

"
")
""
.
"" "
"
"
"
.
(
.
. 9.3).
),
),
"
"
.
"
"
.
,
.
213
"
".
(,
),
.
,
. 9. 10-40-
. ,
().
().
. 9.36 , 40-
()
10-
214
.
1.
.
2.
"
"
10
50
(, 5
),
1% (
3
).
.

-
.
3.
"
"
.
--
.
215
).
.
4.
"
",
, ,
.
5.
"
" (percentage envelopes)

"
"
(volatility bands)
(
. .
9.4 ).
).
. 9.4
. 1,5

. ,
1, 5 %
.
. 9.46
.
,
216

,
.
.
6.
-
(high-low band)
-,
(
.
. 9.5 ).
),
. ,
217
).
,
,
. 9.5
-.
, .

, , ,
.
. 9.56 -
,
218
(
.
. 9.6
-
).
1.
"
".

.
,
-
-
. 9.
.
,
,
,
.
(. . 9.5).
219
. 9. 66 ,
. ,
,
,
,
.
..
-
.
.
.
,
.
2.
220
-,
"

" (How to Build a Fortune in Commodities, R.C. Alien),
1972
.
, 1974
"
-,
" (How to Use

the 4-Day, 9-Day and 18-Day Moving Averages to Earn Larger Profits from Commodities).
-,

-,
-,
-,
"
"
.
,
,
-
,
-
(
.
. 9.7
).
221
. 9.
-
,
.
, , ,
.
.
, ,
,
.
,
222
. 9.7
-, -
.
, , - .
. 9.76 . ,
()
223
)
,
(
.
. 9.7
).
. 1978 1982
"
" .
"
".
1978
"
-
". 1970 1976
(
.
.
9.1-9.3).
(
.
. 9.4)
:
1.
224
: "

. (
,
.60).
2.
.
3.
(
.
.
).
4.
), -
(
.
. 9.4).
9.1
9.2
-
225
9.3
9.4
- ,
-,
226
. 9.4
. , ,
1970 1976 ,
(
1970 1976
),
1979
,
. (
"
" Computerized Trading Techniques, Men-ill Lynch Commodity Division, February,

1979).
"
",
. 9.5
("
- 1982
").
1981
227
9.5
-

-

-
3,49
117,482
-7,790
160
68
92
GNMA
( 11)
14,47
13,47
4,21
22,50
14,33
4,40
17,43
8,48
14,40
4,28
18,50
6, 50
6,21
23,44
20,45
6,50
160,226
83,565
57,430
324,719
254,744
78,631
94,476
482,769
-4,721
120,899
52,888
5,022
113,178
8,378
393,390
172,454
-8,620
-3,890
-13,560
-7,910
-6,112
-3,909
-12,742
-7,932
-413
-4,367
-8,710
-10,054
-10,410
-17,350
-18,610
-7,467
303
258
286
371
473
169
278
334
88
131
409
368
936
436
530
148
128
114
124
176
250
78
126
184
6
74
182
127
385
132
247
66
175
144
167
195
22
91
152
152
82
57
227
241
551
304
283
82
22,47
13,49
7,29
6, 50
6,18
187,264
127,399
386,557
475,442
74,933
-8.805
-6,573
-21,728
-13,399
-21,423
484
527
1213
500
535
217
206
478
181
200
267
321
735
319
335
25,50
184,487
-10,066
147
81
66
11,47
169,640
-5,282
358
140
218
228
.
"
"
.
,
"
" (Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analyst, A. Sklarew).
229
.
,
(
.
. 9.8 ).
14
230
. 9. 8
.
,
2.
,
,
-
-,
-,
2.
231
. 9.86
, ,
.
"
",
- "
".
-13,21, 34, 55
.
"21",
'
),
13 (
.
. 9.9
-
).
232
(
.
. 9.10).
. 9.9
,
. , -
. ,
-
.
(
), ,
(),
233
.9.9-, -
, .
() (
), . ,
().
,
.
.9.9-
(
). ,
,
.
,
. ,
, - ()
234
..-
, ,
, , .
,
,
.

,
. () .
.
,
. 9.10
-
. ,
2.30
1980

235
-,
-,
-,
).
,
?
.

,
,
,
10
(Moving Average Convergence/

Divergence Trading Method MACDTM).
10.
236
OBV).
(
.
. 9.11 , 9.12)
.
.9.11
,
.
,
237
.9.116
(), ().
-
OBV.
""
),
. 9.12a
/(). -
238
. 9.126
,
RSI.
"
".
1970
"
" (Trader's Notebook).
"
".
"
".
. ( 1983
. -
"
",
).
"
"
:
1.
.
2.
-
-
239
.
"

"

: "

".
,
,
,
"
"
"
"
,
"
"
.
"
"

"
".

"

"(

)"
.
"
"
"
"
1979
240
"
",

"
"
"
",
.
"
"
2.
241
. 9.13 "".
,
,
,
.

,
. ,
-,
-,
,
,
2.

,
,
242
. 9.14 ,
. , , .
, ,
.

.
,
(74 ),
243
.9.15 ,
.
360
.
()
. -
, (320 )
. 9.16
, "" (
,
).
244
,
-.

. ,
"" . ""
. "",
,

.
"
"
.
"
" -
. (.
. 9.13 - 9.16.)
.
"
"
(Technical Analysis in Commodities)
- "
" "
", -
"

" (Technical Trading
Systems for Commodities and Stocks, C. Patel).
245
10.
"
"
"
".
,
,
"
".
(overbought)
(oversold)
.
(divergence)
"
"
.
,
246

. ,
"
"
,
,
0 100 - 1 + 1 -
).
1.
.
2.
.
3.
(momentum).
.
247
).
:
= V - Vx
V -
, Vx -
(
.
.

),
(
.
.
),
. . 1
.
.
248
. 10.16
,
,
, - .
. (.
. 10. la.)
. (.
. 10.16.)
(
.
.
.)
,
,
249
)
,
. (.
. 10.210.26.)
. 10. 2
,
.
250

.
,

. 10.26
(
).
-
. (
).
+1 -1.
.
,

10 (
).
+1
-1,
251
"
"
.
,
95 %
).
(Commodity Channel Index) .
. .
(
+100 (
) - 100
(
).
,
.
1
252
. 10.36
CCI.

.
CCI

CCI
,
,
,
. (.
. .
.)
"
"

"
".
.
. 10.4ROC .
. ,
100.
. 10.46
(
)
ROC ().
-
,
253
(rate of change - ROC)
ROC
= 100 (V/Vx)
V -
Vx
100
. (.
.10.4.)
(
..
),
100,
.
,
:
254
1.
.
2.
"
" ""
).
255
. 10. 6
, . 10. 5,
() 8
, (
) - 48.
. 10.66
, - . ,
256
. 10. 5
,
-
.
. 10.56
, - .
.
. 10.7-
.
- ,
. .
257
. 10.76
(- )
. ,
.
.
3.

.
(.
. 10.5.)
,
,
(
.
.
. (. . 10.6.)
"
" -
.
,
"
"
"",
"
"
, "
"

"
" "
"
,
,
258
.
(.
. 10.7.)
.
.
.
1.
. 10. 8
CRS,
(CRB),
. CRS
CRS
"
"
(Current Relative Strength - CRS),
(CRB).
CRS
259
"
"
CRS
.
2.
.
,
(RSI)
0 100.
70
30
70 30
. (.
. 10.9.)
70,
30.
70
30
260
. 10 9, ,
RSI,
(70 30). 70
, 30
- .
. 10.96
RSI 70 30.
3.
.
,
.
,
.
,
RSI
70
30,
70
30
. (. . ..)
261
. 10. 10, .
(30). ()
(), , , ,
.
,
. ,

.
262
. 10. 10,
, .
. (
. 10.106.)
RSI.
(RSI)
(Relative Strength Index)
"
"
(New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, Welles Wilder).
).
),
RSI
0 100.
"
"
. "
"
.
,
S&P 500
.
263
,
,

CRB.
"
"
,
RSI

(RSI)
RS,
14.
14.
(RS),
RSI
.
,
. (.
. 10. .)
264
. 10.11a
RSI ()
S&P 500. , ,
, 70 30. ,
.
. . 116
RSI, -
, 10. .
, .

70
30. ,
, -
.
265
RSI
.
,
8,
9.
RSI
RSI
0 100.
70
30,
, "
"
- 80 20.
,
80
, 20
70
30,
"'
" (failure
swing). "
"

(
70)
.
"
"
(
30)
. (.
. 10.12.)
RSI
70 30 -
"
".
RSI
(
.
. 10.1 ).
266
. 10. 12a "" . RSI

30
(),
(
), ""

, .
.
. 10.126 "" ,
.
:
(70),
(
) , ,
(
).
RSI
"
-
"
(70
267
30).

, -
.
,
(
,
).
),
"
"
, ,
-
-
,
.
e
opo
o o
e
p
. 10.13
RSI .
268
. 10.136
.
RSI
70 30
70 30.
30
30,
70
70 30
. (.
. 10.14.)
(K%D)
(Stochastic Process Stochas-tics)
"
, .",
: %%D.
,
269
:
%= 100 [ (- L5) / (5 - L5)],
, L5 -
(0-100%)

70,

30,
. 10.14
S&P 500.
. 10.146 70
, 30
.
,
"
". ,
.
270
(D%) -
%.
D%
:
%D = 100 (H3/L3),
(- L5), L3 -
(5 - L5).
0 100.

"
"
D -
.
(70 30),
RSI.
10 15
85 90
70
30
D -
D.
,
(right-sided crossover)
.
271
. 10.15
.
,
"" %D,
.
70 30
-
. , RSI.
, %
%D
,
.
,
.
. 10.156
.
,
. 1.
(30). 2.
. 3. , ,

D.
272
. (.
. 10.15.)
D.
. (.
. 10.16.)
. 10.16
,
.
273
. 10.166 ()
S&P 500.
(30)
(70).
"
"
.
"
"
"
"
D.
"
"
D,
"
"
.
, "
"

D (
D).
. (.
. 10.17.)
.
"
"
1984
"
". .
"
"
"
" (Trading Strategies),
1984
.
274
. 10.17.
. 10.176
.
-
. ;
,
.
%R
%R
275
20,
80.

%R.
. (.
. 10.18
.)
. 10.18%R . ,
.
20 80.
,
.
276
. 10.186
%R
"
"
1/2
-,
-,
.
,
RSI
-,
RSI,

,
1/4 1/2
14.
ROC,

RSI
- ,
_
6
.

"
"
~
,
'
"
),
).
,
277
"
"
"
",
. (
13
.)
,
,
-
(MACDTM)
"
" (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Trading Method - MACDTM),
.
.

),
278
).
. (.
. 10.19.)
. 10.19MACDTM.

,
, ,
.
.
. .
, MACDTM
. ,
,
279
. 10.196

(VA)

(OBV)

(VA).

.
-
"
".
VA
. (.
. 10.20
.)
280
. 10.20a
.
. 10.206
VA,
7. VA, . -
VA ,
. ,
VA
281
""
"
, ."
"
".
""
"
" (Principle of Contrary Opinion).
"
",
,
, ,
.
"
",
.
X.
,
"
",
1954
"
" (The Art of Contrary Thinking, Humphrey B.

Neill).

, .

"
",
"
"
(Bullish Consensus numbers),

"
"
"
"
) "
"
"
" (Contrary Opinion, How to

Use It for Profit in Trading Commodity Futures, R. Earl Hadady).
"

" (Consensus Index of Bullish Market Opinion),
"
".
75% 25%.
282
"
",

"

",
0 100.
"
"
80%,
80%
20%
).
30% (
30%
70% -
),

"
"
.
"
"
"
",
"
"
"
"
'

"
"
"
",
80% 90%
"
".
"" ""
"
"
283
"
",
.
80%
20%
,
(
).
"
"
80%
"
" -

. ,
,
"
"
"
"
55%.
5%
90%, - 20%.
"
"
90% 20%.
80% 30%
"
" -
5%-
"
".
"
"
.
,
"
"
.
,
"
",
50%
.
"
"
.
284
(20%),
-
).
"
"
"
",
5%-

"
"
"
"

"
"
50%
(
80%)
50%,
(20%),
50%,
50%
"
"
"
"
285
286
11.
.
, ,
-
,
- "
-

"
1933
"
",
"
",
"
-
" 20 1901
"
"
"
" (tape reading).
"
"
1886
. 1933
"
"
, ,
1898
"
"
1904
: "
".
,

1881
.
"
"
1933

- "
".
.
1896
"-
"
,
"
-
"
"
-
".
"
"
"
").
"
-
",
. ,
"
",
, "
"
"
-
".
..
287
"
",
"
" -
.
-
^-
"
" (three-point reversal method),
"
",
. ,
,
-
288
, ,
),
.
-
"
" -
,

-
,
-
.
,

. 11.1
S&P 500
289

. 11.1 11.2
S&P 500
.
-
,
-
-
.
"
" "
"
11.2.
"
"
"
",
"
"

,

,

,
-
. 11.3 11.4
(
. 11.2- 11.4)
(1.00).
. 11.2
(
.
.
. 11. 2. -
S&P 500
.
1.00,
290
. 11.3
. 11.2
. 11.4
. 11.2 11.3
. 11.2
. 11.3
),
47 26.
. 11.4
14.
291
--
).
).
.
-
.
1978
"
"
28
43
.
).

, 1978

"
" -
"
",
"
",
292
.
,
, ,
.
,
.
5/29
8515
8510
8508
8520
8535
8532
8546
8557
8550
8535
8566
8525
8515
8515
8523
8545
8538
8563
8560
8553
8550
8575
8510
8506
8510
8520
8540
8535
8553
8552
8545
8546
8570
8515
8510
8525
8523
8544
8543
8565
8555
8555
8555
8580
8510
8506
8520
8517
8540
8540
8560
8546
8540
8550
8570
8515
8510
8525
8525
8545
8543
8563
8550
8548
8558
8580
8505
8500
8522
8520
8535
8539
8560
8545
8542
8555
8575
8515
8514
8525
8528
8544
8549
8563
8550
8545
8565
8585
8512
8510
8520
8525
8540
8545
8560
8545
8540
8560
8577
8515
8517
8525
8539
8545
8550
8563
8550
8545
8570
8585
8510
8510
8522
8535
8535
8547
8560
8540
8537
8565
8516
8519
8525
8538
8538
8554
8563
8560
8540
8570
. 11.5.
8500
.
-
,
5.
- "
" "" -
"" "5".
293
("" "5")
.
,

"
" "".
. 11.5
-

,
.

. -
. , ,
8515.
- 8525,
8515 8525.
-8510.
8510.
, -
.
294
- 8515,
,
,

(,
),
8532 (
).
. ,
.
. 11.6
"
",
.
.
11.6
"
".

, ,
295
. 11. 6
, .
, ,
,
.
,
-
,
(),

. ,
-.
. ,
.
4/29
4875
5/2
4870
5/3
4870
5/4
4885
5/5
4905
5/6
4885
5/9
4950
5/10
4940
5/11
4935
4965 4960 4970
4880
4860
4865
4880
4900
4900
4925
4915
4950
4860
4865
4870
4890
4905
4890
4930
4920
4945
4865
4855
4860
4885
4900
4930
4925
4905
4950
4850
4860
4865
4890
4905
4920
4930
4925
4935
4860
4855
4860
4875
4855
4860 4855 4860 4855 4865 4855
4870 4865
4930
4925
4920
4940
4925
4935
4930
4935
4930
4925
4925
4945
4925
4930 4925 4935 4930 4940 4935
4935 4930 4940 4935 4940
4940 4965 4960 4965 4955 4960 4955
. 11.7
.
296
1.
4875.
- 4880 -
2.
- 4860.
4860.
3.
- 4865.
).
- 4850,
,
;
4850.
4.
- 4860.
4860.
5.
- 4855.
4855.
. 11.7-
-
.
,
- .

.
-
.
(
).
297
6.
, -4870.
-.
4870.
, .
,
,
"
"
. 11.76
.

. 11.7
: -,
.
298

(gaps)
.
,
: "
"
, ""
, 1985).
(congestion areas).
.
,
"
"
.

-

"
"
("
" "")
,
,
).
,
,
"
"
299
,
"
"
"
" "
"
"
".
()
. (.
. 11.8.)
. 11.8
, . ,
.
. ,

,
,
300
.
,
,
.
,
-
,
. . 11.9
,
,
,
, "
",
V-
V-
, "
".
"
" (fulcrum).
,
"
"
"
"
"
" "
".
(catapult)
. V-
,
-
. 11.9
"
301
. 11.9 .
. 11.9
,
302
),
).
.

-
. 11.5-11.8
).
(protective stops)
),
303
"
".
.
,
), -
.
,
-
-
,
1978

"
"
"--
".
. (.
. 11.10.)
"
'
.",
"
" "
".
),
. (.
. 11.11.)
304
"
".
. (.
. 11.12-11.14.)
. 11.10 -, "".
, "
" ""
305

- ,
. 11. If
-
,
"
''. - ,
(
).
306
. 11.12
().
,
.
. -
(
- 1/4 ).
.
.
307
. 11.13,

.
.
.
- (
- ),
308
. 11.14(- 1/5
) -
-. ,
. -
(
- 1/10 ) - .
.
-
309
12.
1947
.
"

" (Stock Market Timing, A.W. Cohen),
"
"
: "
-

"
" (The Chartcraft

Method of Point and Figure Trading).
: "
" (How To Use The Three-Point Reversal Method Of

Point And Figure Stock Market Trading).
^
-
"
",
. -
,
"
"
"
" "",
. (. . 12.1.)

),
310
311
. 12.1
312
.
,
-
.
,
,

.
,

12.2
.
-
"
" (Profit and Profitability, R.E. Davis),
1965
,
1914 1964
,
1100
- 1954 1964
,
.
80%
(
,
25%.
313
. 12.2 -.
(56,9%)

-2
S-2
(56,4%) -
-3 -

(87,9%).

S-3 -
(93,5%).
314
2,
S-1 S-8,
1,
- -1 -2
-2
-1
.
-1
-2
-2 -
,
-1.

-3 -
.
,
(-4) -
,
-3,
(-5)
-6 -
).
-7 -
(-8) -
.
S-1 - S-8
.
,
.
-
, ,
, ,
315
-
,
. (.
. 12.3 12.4.)
316
317
318
-7,
).
.
,
1<,
.
,
"
"
,
,
. -
,
319
10.
(31
).
(10) 3 (3
30
320
(
.
. 12.5). -
,
,
.
3 (
.
.
),

.
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
-
.
5.
.
6.
;
.
),
"
"
.
321
""

).
"
" (poles).
,

.
.
1.
-
.
2.
.
3.
-
.
4.
.
5.
.
322
-
1970
1965
.
.
"
".
. 1970
. ,
"
-
" (Point and Figure Trading, A Computer Evaluation).
I960 1969
.
.
.
"
" (Point and Figure Commodity Trading Techniques),
1975
135
(
17 1974
28
1974
(
.
.
41% 66%,
-
100% 199%.
. (.
. 12.6 -
.)
323
"
".
"
" (
.
. 12.7).
: "
"
"
" (
.
. 12.6).
)
203
205
503
402
203
405
203
406
53
28
203
104
23
1,55
. 12. 6() (
) .
,
-
.
324
"
".
"
".
: "
",
).
"
"
(
.
. 11.2-4,
. 11).
325
. 12.6-
--

.
"
" (Study Helps in Point and Figure Technique, A. Wheelan).
"

",
"
". ,
"
" (The Three-Point

Reversal Method of Point and Figure Stock Market Trading).
"
".
326
. 12.7
327
,
-
(RSI),
(OBV)
.
,
328
13.
1938
"" (The Wave

Principle).
"
"
.
.(1871-1948),
. 1927
. ,
. 1934
"
",
, ,
"
".
1938

"
".
"
".
1939
. 1946
"
": "
" (Nature's Law The Secret of the

Universe).
,
.
,
1953
"
".
1967
. I960
"
" (Elliott Wave Principle - Critical Appraisal),
329
. 1967
, 1970
"
"
"
".
1978
"
" (Elliott Wave Principle, A. J. Frost and R. Prechter),
. 1980
"
",
.
.
, -
).
.
,
"
".
).
.
330
.
,
,
.
. 13.1
(1, 3, 5)
2 4
1 3.
"
", "" "
".
.
,
),
"
",
. 13.1 .

. ^
. 13.2.
- (1)(2)
331
11
- (J)
(
),
. 13.2,
(
.
. 13.3).
1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144,

(. 13.1-13.3),
),
,
(1), (3) (5) (
. 13.2)
,
(l) -
(2) (4)
(
), (), (
);

(2) (
).
- (
) (
) -
(2). (
),
(2).
. 13.2.
332
).
.
,
(
--
)
, -
,
,
"
"
"
".
X.
"
",
-
,
333
:
"
".
(wave personalities).
"
"
2)
"
"
1.
,
"
"
2.

1,
2.
,
,
"
".
3.

).
(
.
). 3

- ^
4 .
2,
(
.
"
- \
"
).
^_
-i-
'
-j
5.
, OBV 334
.-
. ,
,
(
).
"
"
(
.
"
".
,
1, 3
5
. 13.4

1.

5.
(
.
.
),
3,
5
1.
1 3
57.
335

. 13.4.
"
"
.
. 13.5
"
"
336
. 13.5 "" .
"
"
"
" (failures).
. 13.6 13.7
.

,
6,
.
. 13.8 13.9
"
".
,
5
3.
3.
"
"
337
. 13. 6
(
).
. 13. 7
(
).
,
,
.
,
(zigzags),
(Hats),
(double and triple

threes).
. 13. 8 "" . . 13.9 ""

.
338
"
"
: 5-3-5.
. 13.10 13.11
.
.
13.12 13.13

. ,
"
".
. 13.14.
5-3-5,
--
.
3-3-5.
(
.
. 13.16 13.18)
.
. 13.15 - 13.18
. 13.10
(5-3-5).
. 13.11
(5-3-5).
339
. 13.12
(5-3-5). . 13.13
(5-3-5)
. 13.14
.
. 13.19 - 13.22.
. 13.19 13.20)
,
,
. 13.15
(3-3-5).
. 13.16
(3-3-5).
340
. 13.17
(3-3-5).
. 13.18
(3-3-5).
.13.19 ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.20 "" -(3-3-5).
.13.21""
(3-3-5).
.13.22""
(3-3-5).
341
. 13.23 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.24 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.25 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.26 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
342
. 13. 27 "" (3-3-5).
. 13.23 - 13.26.
"
" (running)
"
"

. 13.27.
,

b

1,
,
,
b,
--
).
343
,
,
6.
. 13.28

).
"
"
).
344
. 13.28
(
).
(
.
. 13.29, 13.30).

(
. 13.29)
--
. . 13.30

--,
).
-
-
"
" ,
-
345
. 13.29 . . 13.30 .
, ,
.
,
--,
4,
-
,
,

2
,
4
-
. 13.31.
. 13. 31 .
4.
,

1 2.
1,
13.32.
346
. 13. 32 "" ""

.
3,
2
(
.
. 13.32).
3 (.
. 13.33).
3
(
. .
),
1.
347
. 13.33
- 4
"
" ,
"
",
(,
348
"
".
"Liber Abaci" (
: "
").
,
,
. "Libel
Abaci"
:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 (
).
.
1.
: 3+5=8, 5+8=13
.
2.
0,618
(
).
: 1/1=1.00; 1/2=0,50; 2/3=0,67; 3/5=0,60; 5/8=0,625;

8/13:=0,615; 13/21=0,619
0,618,
: 1,00; 0,50; 0,67.
.
3.
1,618 (
0,618).
:
13/8=1,625; 21/13=1,615; 34/21=1,619.
0,618 1,618.
4.
0,382,
- 2,618).
: 13/34=0,382; 34/13=2,615.
,
,
.

,

1,618 0,618
"
" "
".

"
"
"
"
-
-.
.
-
, 618
).
349
"
", "
" "
",
"
"
"
",
.
,
).
(. 13.1 13.3),
.
,
,
3 5
:
1.
,
1 3

1 5.
2.

, 1 1,618
2,
.
3.
1
3,236 (2 1,618).
350

1.
.
4.
1 3
,
5,
. -
3,
1, 618.
4.
5.
5-3-5)
.
6.
, 0, 618
,
.
7.

3-3-5,
1,618
.
8.
0,618.
61,8% (
62%), 38% 50%.

33%, 50%
67%
.
,
38%.
62%.

0,618,
: 1/1
(100%), 1/2 (50%), 2/3 (67%).
50-
2/3
).
(100%)
351
13, 21, 34, 55 89-
.
,
1,618
3,
,
- 55.
,
,
"
"
,
3,
-
5.
1,
352
).
"
".
.
,
1980 1981
.
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
(5-3-5)
(3-3-5).
5.
).
.
6.
.
7.
.
8.
.
9.
.
10.
62%, 50% 38%.

353
11.

.
12.
.
13. 4
1 (
).
14.

):
.
15.
.
16.
.
17.

' '
"
.
"
"
"
",
:
,
,
,
.
,
"
"
"
354
"

").

. 13.1-13.33
"
"
"
",
, "
"
"
.
(Understanding Fibonacci Numbers, E.
Dobson),
"
" (Commodity Trading Systems and Methods, P. Kaufman).

,
.
"
" (Who is R. N. Elliott and Why is He Making Waves?)
"
1983
).
. 13.34-13.41.
(
. 13.42 - 13.49)
, -
,
"
",
(fan lines),
(arcs)
(time zones).
.
,
("
"
).

5, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233
1, 2 3,
355
. 13.34 . 5
.
. 13. 35
. 4
1. , , 5
.
2 4.
356
. 13. 36
()

,
.
(
) -
.
. 1984
357
. 13. 37 .
. 4
,
.
,
4.
358
. 13. 38
.

,
1983
14
.
, 3
,
,
. , ,
,
.
4
.
. 13. 39
,
.
(-) ().
.
. 13. 40 .
(
!) 38%
--,
.
359
. 13. 41
,
--. .
-50%
. ,
, ,
.
4).
38%, 50% 62%
38%, 50% 62%

"
" (
. 13.42 - 13.49
360
).
. 13. 42 .
,
38%, 50% 62%.

,
. 13. 43 .
- , 38%, 50%, 62%-

.
. ,
, .
.
361
. 13.46 ,
,
1984 ,
.
, ""
.
. 13. 47 .
. ,
.
. 13. 44
.
.
. 13. 45
.

.
, ,
362
, , ,
.

.
363
. 13.48
,
.
. 13.49
,
,
. ,
, .
,
. ,
(
) .
364
14.
,
,
,
,
,
,
"
"
.
"
",
.
365
"
".
6.47,
- 16.35.
4.36,
- 17.03.
22
,
-8
,
?
. -
,
. -
, t
. ,
"
:
" (Cycles: The

Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events, E.Dewey and O. Mandino).
1415 1930
.,
9,6
22,20
1527
11,11
- 18,33
- 9, 2
(
. . 14.1 14.2).
. -
,
. 188
9,
.
:
366
.
. 14. 3

18,2
. 14.1
22,2 .
,
,
. ""
,
- .
367
. 14. 2
22,2 .
1982 .
""
,
- .
1940

"
",
. 14. 3 ,
18, 2 .
1970
.
"
" (The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Tinning, J. M. Hurst).
368
"
"
. 14. 4
. ,
,
-
, .

.
,
,
.
,
.
(
. 14. 4)
(trough),
(crest).
(
. . 14. 5)
369
(
.
. 14. 6)
.
(
.
. 14. 7)

.
,
),

. 14. 5 .
( -5
+5 ).
.
. 14. 6 . ,
. ,
370
,
, , - ,
. ,
.
. 14. 7
,
, ,
. 14. 8
.
,
, "2".
"
",
9,
, "
",
,
"
"
.
371
. 14. 8 .
,
372
. 14. 9
.
.
(
.
. 14. 9)
. ,
,
373
"
".
18
9
54
18
9
77.94
38.97
19.48
9.74
4.97
68.2
34.1
17.0
8.5
4.3
. 14. 10
.
(
.
. 14. 106)
3, 2.
,
,
"".
40, 20, 10 5
. ,
-,
-,
-,
"
"
.
374
18
9
54
18
40
20
80
40
20
10
5
. 14. 106 .
.
. 14.11
(
.
. 14. 12),
,
"
".
. V-
"
"
375
. ,
376
. 14. 12
. . 14. 126 .
. 14. 11
(
.
. 14. 13).
(long-term)
(
),
(seasonal)
),
(primary),
(intermediate)
),
(trading)
(
).
(1/2 primary cycle).
377
. (
"
", "
", "
" "
"
).
. 14. 13 .
(Kondra-tieff cycle). ,
,
,
,
1789
. . (
.
. 14. 14).
).
,
378
"
." (The Long Wave Cycle),
1984
.
).
379
380
(
.
. 14.
13).
),
CRB (
. . 14. 15).
CRB
CRB,
CRB
. ,
CRB
1950-
381
. 14. 15 CRB
.
. .

20
- 10 5.
-,
-,
CRB,
,

,
, -
382
"
",
,
"
"
,
,
),
,|
.
_
^
^"1
^^
'^-''
.
,
(
.
. 14.16 14.17).
),
),
"
"
,
"
" "
"
383
.
,
(
.
. 14.18
-
).
. -
,
.
,
50%
66%
),
384
. 14. 16 :
(. ),
(. ),
(. ). ,
.
, - .
, ,
385
. 14. 17
,
.
1950 1968 ,
1968
1975

1975
.
)
(
)
,
-
,
"
" "
"

HAL,
. 14. 18.
1982
,
,
1984 .
.
. 14. 186 . "",
HAL Market
Cycles,
386
.
,
.
,
. 14. 18() , ,
.
. 14. 18
.
387
.
,
"
"(Ehrlich Cycle
Finder),
,
-
(
.
. 14. 19
-
).
,
"
"
"
" (Cycle Finder),
, "
"
-
-
"
"
FFT (Fast Fourier Transform),
"
", .

(MEM). (

).
(detrending).
388
. 14. 19a
"
",
"".
,
.
. 14. )9"" , , .
,
,
. ,
18 - 36,
.
389
. 14. 19"
"

(
)
. ,
,
"",
.
. 14. 19
, .
,
"" .
- ,

"".

,
.
390
. 14. 20
S&P.
. 14. 20.
,
.
,
391
. 14. 20
S&P
.
,
. "
"
.
. 14. 20,
. (
.)
: ,
,
392
(
.
. 14. 20
-
).
),
"
".
70%

, 75%
).
.
,
(
.
. 14.21 ).

80%,
.
393
65%
14 21a .
,
-
-.
394
. 14. 21
. -
,
.
-
,
, -
.
,
(time windows)
(timing bands),
"
"
,
395
(
Commodity Advisors) .
(HAL Market Cycles).
. -
,
"
" (The Handbook of Commodity Cycles: A Window

on Time, J. Bernstein)
, -

).
).
HAL Market Cycles
).
,
70%
"
HAL ",
HAL
(HAL Cyclic Analyst's Kit Manual).
(midcycle pause price objective) (
"
",
6),
(,
),
,
-
,
, -
396
. 14. 22
.
,
.
,
,

,

.

),
4 (
. . 14. 22).

Hal,
.
(The Hal Blue Book, W.J. Bressert and J.H. Jones),
(momentum).
.
"
",
1973
.
%R
(.
10).

,

, "
"
397
28
-
,
Hal
),
).
,
: 20, 10 5.

(
.
. 14. 23).
. 14. 23
S&P 500.
. 14. 236
HAL.
: ,
.
.
, .
398
.
"
"
.
,
Hal
%R
".
"
"
..
399
"
,
,
.
,
"
" (
"
" (How
to Profit From Seasonal Commodity Spreads),
1983
.
"
".
(SIRE),
: ,
(
Commodity Advisors),
- .
(HAL Market Cycles).

,
400
15.

,
,
,
,
.
"
"
"
",
.
401
,
,
,
,
"
".
"
"
"
"
"
"
,
,
"
"
),
(Artificial Intelligence),
(Pattern Recognition).
""
"
"
IBM-PC, XT, AT
"".
IBM-
. "
"
PC,
.
"
"
402
"
".
,
"
"

on-line
.
,
.
. 15.1 1.
"
".
"
1" (
.
. 15.1).
(F1-P8),
*.
.
F1 - "
" (Studies).
403
4.
F2 - "" (Window).
.
F3 - "
" (Files).
.
F4 - "
" (Bar Cht).

.
"
"
(
)
.
F5 - "
" (Output).
.
F6 - "
" (Tools).
3.
F7 - "
" (Screen).
.
F8 - "
" (Zoom).
"zooming in",
,
"zooming out"
1,
IBM.
(F1-P12).
. (.
.)

.
"
"
"7" (Screen).
. 15.2 2.
404
("
1"),
2 (. . 15.2).
.
,
F1 - ".
" (Legend)
F3 -"
" (Log)
F7 - "
" (Mode)
.
. 15.3 3.
"
"
"
"
F6
(
3
.
F1 - "
" (Trend).
.
F2 - "
" (Envelope).
(
.
9).
F3 - "" (Cycle).
(
.
14).
F4 - "
" (%Retrace).
..
.
F5 - "
" (Compress).
:
,
.
F6 - "
" (Profit).
"
",
405
"
").
F7 - "

" (Misc.).

(
.
13) "
"
.
F8 - "

" (Fourier).
.
F9 - "
" (EqVol).
.
"
"
. 15.4 4.
"
".
,
, "
"
"
"
. 15.13
; 15.14).

"
".
406
F1

(
1

. 15.4 ( 4).
, "
" (Volume)
""
4 (
),
:
- "
" (Simple)
- "
" (Histogram)
- "
OBV" (On Balance Volume)

--"
VA" (Volume Accumulation)

E - "
VAO" (Volume Accumulation Oscillator)
),
OBV, VA VAO (
7).
"N",
"

" (Moving averages),
:
- "
" (Simple)
- "
" (Weighted)
- "
" (Exponential)

).

OBV,
"
"
9).
.

,
-
,
RSI
"Enter".
(Advance-Decline),
TRIN
407
CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
(Demand Index)
).
(Detrend)
HAL
14,
(MACD),
),
),
(ROC),
(RSI),
(K%D),
(%R)
10,
CSI (Commodity Selection Index),
(swing index),
. : "
"

"
" (New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems),
1978
"
":
CSI, RSI
. 15.5
. SAR,
"
".
, ,
,
,
408
. 15. 6
,
.
. 15. 7
S&P
500. ,
.
"" (,
) ,
,
.
. 15. 8 ,
- .
409
(SAR)
(SAR)
"SAR" -
"stop and reverse" (
: "
").

). "
"

(trailing stops), -
(
.
. 15.5-15.8).
SAR)
).
SAR
SAR
"
".
,
.
,
(
.
. 15.5, 15.6).
S&P 500
(
.
. 15.7 15.8)
,
"
"
S&P 500 (
.
. 15.7)
410
30%
).
70%
"
" (DMI)
"
" (Directional Movement Index)

(
.
. 15.9).
"
" (
.
.
).

ADXR
"
"
100.

ADXR,
.
. 15. 9
ADXR
S&P 500
(
.
).
ADXR (20)
S&P 500 (
ADXR 10).
. 15.9
""
.
ADRX
20 (
S&P),
, . ADRX (
) .
,
, .
411
. 15.10
DMI: +DI () -D1 (

). +DI
-DI,
-DI, , .
(
) "" .
(
.
. 15.5 15.7),

S&P 500.

"
",
ADXR
0 100 ,
.
,
"
"
- "
"
).
"
"

412
. 15.
,
""
.
. 15. 116 DMI ()
.
DMI
"" . ADXR (
)
,
DMI
- +DI -DI.
(
.
.
(
.
.
DMI
. 15.10:
- +DI ,
- -DI.
+DI
-DI,
, -
.
"
"
(
.
. 15.
).
DMI (
DMI
DMI,
-DMI
.

(. . 15.116)
ADXR
"
"
),
),
413
ADXR
"
"
ADXR
CSI.
CSI (Commodity Selection Index)
"
" (CSI),
-,
ADXR
(
"
").
(Average
True Range - ATR),
DMI,
,
CSI
"
",
).
CSI
,
,
OBV
VA,
:
CCI,
,
MACD,
%R
,
RSI,
VA,
HAL;
HAL,
, "
",
);
414
: "
"
: RSI, CSI, DMI,
-
,
-
,
"
"
.
(.
. 15.12 - 15.14.)
),
"
" (Profitability
Editor)
"
" (User Study)
415
. 15. 12
.

.
. 15.126 "
"
.
(
40%
( ). ,
, 33%, 40%, 50%, 60% 66% .
416
. 15.13
"" .
(Median Line), "" "" ("MLR").
.
, (),
(
).
,
, .
. , ,
. ""
.
. 15.136 ""
. ,
, ,
417
. 15.14
-(Equivolume chart) .

. ,
.
). ,
.
. 15. 14. , . ,
":
" (Volume Cycles in the Stock Market: Market Timing Through

Equivolume Charting, R.W. Arms).
,
418
,
,
.
1980
.
-
. -
, -
"
"
.
,
,
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
.
5.
.
6.
.
7.
1.
.
2.
.
3.
,
,
419
.
4.

"
",
"
",

DMI
CSI.
"
"
"
",
.

,

"
"
EFTA (Electronic Futures Trend

Analyzer) -
),
CRB Futures Chart Service.
EFTA
. 15.15.
("
"),

420

"
",
"
" "
" ("
"
).
25
1985
"
"
.
,
(T-Bills)
""
-
. 15. 15.
421

6 7 ("
" "
")
(
.
.
"
").
"
".
"
" (
),
"
".
"
".
EFTA
EFTA,
.
"
" ,
"
".
"
".
"
",
"
"
"
".
EFTA (
. ,
).
422
"
"
25-
.
1-
"
"
(
CRB,
:
"
...
13-
10-
"
".
"
"
EFTA

(
. . 15. 15).
.
,
EFTA.
200
),

/)
.
423
: 0 100%.
70%,
20%
"" "
"
"
"

"
".
"
",
"
",

"
":

"
"

"
".
).
) -
,
424
"
",
"
"
"
",
.-
"
",
"
".
"
".
)

.
on-line),
,
,
"
"
.
:

425
"
"
,
,
,
"
",
"
".

"
",
"
" .
(Technical Trading Systems For Commodities and Stocks, C. Patel).
426
16.
).
"
" "
".
.
1.
.
2.
"
",
427
.
3.
),
:
"
" "
".
),
.
,
"
"
428
.
1.
50%
100 000
50 000
.
2.
10-15%
100 000
10000-15
000
).
3.
5%
5%
5 000
100 000
.
4.
20-25%
.
,
.
,
'
,
,

"
".
(100 000
) 10%,
10 000
2 500
(10 000/2 500 = 4).
5000
429
S&P 500
6 000
12%).
.
,

, -
).
"
"

("
").

"
",
"
".
40%
430
,
"
"
300 500
300
10
290
295
10
305
500
195
20
195
"
"
175
(195
- 20
).
17 500
(175
100 ).
3 : 1,
"
"
10
30
).
.
"
"
-
, "
".
431
"
"
,
"
"
: ""
""

"

"
"
"

:
"...
"
"
),
".
.
,
432
?
,
50%
"
"
-,

:
"
,
,
."
"
"
433
"
ToproBne"(Commodity Trading Advisors)

"
" (Commodity Pool Operators).
"
",
. "
" (Commodity Market Money Management),
.
(F. Gehm),
"
" (The Investor's Guide to Futures Money

Management, M.S. Baratz)
. ,
:
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
.
5.
.
434
).
, -
,
,
"
"
.
,
.
,
435
40 60%
.
,
40%-
40 60%
__
-'
.
-
40-60%-
.
436
"
"
.
,
300
100000
10000
(10%
).
2500
5% , 5000
,
-
5000.
,
.
301

290
289
),
1200
(12
100).
4800
(4 1200
(5000
).
15
1600
5000
500
),
,
,
-.
"
", "
", "
", "
"
"
-
".
1.
"
"
437
.
2. "
"
,
,
.
3. "
-
"
.
-
-
(
).
"
"
"
"
).
"
",
.
4. "
"
)
-
.
.
5.
"
-
".
"
".

-
,
"
,
-
"
-
.
,
"
"
"
" .
438
"
" .
"
"
-
,
"
-
",
),

),

(
-
) ,
S&P 500.
. 16.1,
(
36 41),
439
. 16.1 ,
S&P 500 .
(
.
. 16.1)
"
"
"
",
).
.
,

(
. . 16.2),
(37).
440
. 16.2
,
.
441
. 16.3
,
442
. 16.4 ,
-
"".
. 16.3
(36).
.
,
162.50) 14.15.
162.20.
15.15
50%
(162.50).
,
12.15
.
,
162.20,
(162.50) 50%-

(162.50).
"
"
(162.50).
. 16.216.3
443
. 16.4 - 16.7
.
. 16.4
"
",
"
" -
. 16.5 16.6
"
",
"
"
. . 16.7

.

-
(
.
11).
.
,
"
"
,
,
RSI
"
",
15.
IDA (IntraDay Analyst),
""
"
" ("thrust" technique),
. ,
"
" (
).
444

. 16. 5
"
".
445
. 16. 6 "
".
"
".
.
(
.
. 16.1)
. "
"

).
"

",
446
. 16.7 -
.
"
" (pivot points).
).
,
(
12.30 -
),
447
.
,
"
" (Market Entry and Exit: Trade

With the Professionals, W.Bressert).
"
" (HAL Cyclic Analyst's Kit).
.
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
.
5.
.
6.
.
7.
.
8.
"
".
9.
,
3:1.
10.
),
;
)
(break-even
448
point).
11.
.
12.

75 %
.
13.
.
14.
.
15.
.
16.
.
17.
"
"
.
18.
.
19.
.
20.

: "
,
".
21.
449
,
,
1.
CRB?
2.
?
3.
?
4.
? i 5.
?
6.
?
7.
?
8.
33%-, 50%- 66%-
?
450
9.
?
10.
?
i 11.
? ; 12.
? - 13.
?.
14.
?
15.
?
16.
(
"
")
?
17.
?
18.
?
19.
?
20.
?
21.
?
22.

?
23.
.
1.
)?
2.
?
3.
(
)?
4.

?
5.
?
6.
?
7.
?
8.
, -
451
, "
!"
"
!"
,
,
"
"
(Market Technicians Association).
?
,

(Chartered Financial Analysts)?
,
452
1972
).
1985
1985
. (
"
"

).
1984
1978
).
"
"
),
1755
"
".
1985
- Nikkei 225 Nikkei 500.
453
,
,
"
"
.
,
,
,
"
",
,
. "",

"
",
-

,
.
:
-
,
!),
,

,
454
.
,
,
,
455

1.
"
"
"" (
, )
. "
"
("
"),
("

")
,
("
").

"
"
straddles)
"
"
.
"
"
"
".
(
,
-
Value Line,
S&P 500),
,

,
(
.
. 1.1-1.7.
456
1)
. 1.1. 1.
, , ,
.
, ,
, ,
""
, .
. 1.2. 1.
. ,
- . ,
,
,
, ,
""
.
.
, ,
, , , - .
457
. 1. 3. 1.
,
. , ,
. ,
"" ,

, - ,
(,
),
,
,
, -
,
,
(CD) (
).
. 1. 4. 1. , ,

Value Line S&P 500.

, ,
.
,
().
, - .
458
. 1. 5. 1.
, .
-
, -.
,
,
.
,
1985
.
. 1. 6. 1.
. , ""
, ,
, .
() -
().
459
. 1.7. 1.
RSI
(.
. 1.6).
- .
,
.
""
).
. (
).
.
,
""
460
,
"
"
(
.
. 1.8.
1).
, 1. 8. 1.
. -
(. ).
-
, .
,
.

.
(ratio analysis)
. .)
.
,
-
.
""

461
CRB,

CRB
CRB
-,

462
"
".
"
" (Commodity Spreads, Techniques and Methods For Spreading Financial Futures, Grains,
Meats, and other Commodities),
.
,
14) "
".
"
"
463

2.
()

(
-)
. "
",
5%
).
"
",

300
2 000
400
10 000
(100
100 ).
,
,
) 300
3 000
(30
100 ).
400

,
10 000

3 000
).
7 000
(
,
10 000
).
464
,
250
300
5 000
(50
100
).
-.

- 3 000
(30
100
),
).
).
,
,
"
".
"
"
.
1.
--,
.
2.
465
.
-
.
3.
).
-
.
"
" "
".

(
-
)
(
-).
"
" in the money).
-
,
,
,
.
,
"
").
- -
).
,

-
-

. -

,
-,
466
"
"
"
-",
"
"
, "
-".
.
,
.
,

-,
-
"
"
"
"
-
,
: "
" .
(Commodity Options: A User's Guide to Speculating and Hedging, T.Mayer),
"
" .
-
.
(Inside the
Commodity Options Markets, J.Labuszewski and J.Sinquefield).
-.

-.
467
-
.
-
-
).
/,
-
,
--
.
-
),
).
).
"
"
(.
. 2.1.
2).
()
. 2.1. 2. /
. (
)
, -
,
-,
.
, , .
468

3.
.
(1878-1955)
. 1976
"
",
. .
"
",
"
" (cardinal square)
"
" (
),
469
. 3.1. 3. "" 12.

(400),
- 5
.
360
360,

30, 90,
120, 180 360
"7".
,
,
(,
100
,
,

,
470
,
-
4,
, ,
,
,
,
: 1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, 7/8, 8/8;
: 1/3,
2/3.
1/3 2/3
,
,
- 33%,
37,5%, 50%, 62,5% 67%
.
,
37,5% 62,5%,

13.
- 33% 67%,
4).
75% 87,5%
- 12,5% 25%.
33% 67%,
45
471
12,
).
(11).
(
-
).
).
2,
11
, 12
1 4
- 82,5
1 8),
(.
. 3.2.
3).
2 1
(1/2
).
41.
1/4
-
.
: "
":
472
. 3.2. 3.
,
.
,
45 ,
, .

,
,
.

), .
. ,
,

.
,
,
13 31.
,

,
473
: 3/8, 4/8 5/8.
45
(1 1), 63 3/4
(1 2) 26 1/4
(2 1).
(37,5%, 50% 62,5%)
"
"

37,5%
(
63 3/4
(1 X 2).
.
. 3.3. 3. ,
1 1
11 .
(12).
, ,
,
(1 1),
50% (4/8)
-.
,
.
, ,
1 1 (),
, . 2 1
1 2
,
.
474
. 3.4. 3.
. (1 1)
. , , ,
(3 1).
,
3 1 12, ,

. 11
--.
. 3.5. 3.
.
,
475
-.
(11) ,
,
.
.
,
90
. 3.6. 3. (-),
476
(41),
. ,
4 1 8 1 -.
45
. 3.7. 3. ,
1 4
. ,
""
:

.
3/8 5/8
(1 1).
,
. (),
(1 1),

.
477
(.
. 3.3-3.7.
3).
.
,
"
",
,
,
- "
" (How to Make Profits in

Commodities) (
1942
,
1951
1976).
("
" "
")
"
",
"
",
"
".
- "

"
. ,
"
" (Trading for Profit With Precision

Timing, D. Vodopich).
11,1221.
.
"
",
"
-
-1",
, "

".
"
' -"
"-
",
) (
"
"
"
"
"
" -
478
.
064145 21.06.1995
.
23.09.96.
70 108 V16
.
.
. 51,8.
1000
763.
125445,
.,
. 134
.
(095) 400-35-40
. 143200,
.
, .
, 93
479

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John J.

(stock index futures),

(International Stock Markets) (

Standarand & Poor's 500

Standard & Poor's

(Consumer Price Index for

(Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index).

" (chartist) "

" (black box);

(now of funds analysis).

" (Random Walk Theory)

" (buy and hold),

" (A Random Walk Down Wall

" (The ABC of Stock

" (The Stock Market Barometer, William Peter Hamilton).

" (Dow Theory,

" (failure swing).

" (nonfailure swing).

(Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Robert D.Edwards and John Magee).

(daily bar chart)

ADP Comtrend's Videcom,

" (double top).

(10, 20, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200

, -50%, 33% 66% -

: 1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, 7/8, 8/8.

3/8 (38%), 4/8 (50%) 5/8 (62%)

: 1/3 (33%) 2/3

(speed resistance lines)

(bottom reversal day),

(buying or selling climax),

(key reversal day).

(runaway or measuring gap) ,

" (exhaustion gap).

" (head and shoulders),

(triple tops and bottoms),

(double tops and bottoms), V-

. 5.26 "" . "" ,

" (complex head and shoulders pattern).

" (failed head and shoulders pattern).

(trailing protective stops).

" (expanding triangle) "

" (broadening formation),

(How Charts Are Used

" (Technical Reliability Index).

" (Granville's New Key to Stock Market

" (Commitments of Traders Report)

29% (43% - 14%).

CRB Futures Chart Service 18

- 22% (+6% -16%).

NYSE Composite (62 %) Value

" (Charting Commodity Market Price

(Commodity Research Bureau).

" (Perpetual Contract CSI Perpetual Contract -

" (Perpetual Index).

CRB (CRB look-alike index).

CRB (CRB Futures Index),

Standard & Poor's 500.

. 8.17 S&P 500. ,

" (percentage envelopes)

" (How to Use

". 1970 1976

" Computerized Trading Techniques, Men-ill Lynch Commodity Division, February,

" (Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analyst, A. Sklarew).