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Murphy
Technical Analysis of the
Futures Markets:
A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and
Applications
New York Institute of Finance A Prentice-Hall Company
1996
:
.,
.
.
.
. - .:
, 1996. - 592
.
"
''.
.
"
''
.
Copyright 1986 by Prentice Hall AU Rights Reserved
1
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1.
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................................ 16
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21
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2.
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3.
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4.
........................................54
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................................................................................................................... 58
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............................................................................................................................................ 73
3.............................................................................................................................................. 74
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...................................................................................................................................................... 78
(PERCENTAGE RETRACEMENTS) ................... 82
..................................................................................................... 84
.................................................................................................................................................... 87
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5.
................................................................96
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6.
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7.
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156
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8.
..................184
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9.
..........................................................208
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.............. 232
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10.
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........................................................................................................................................................ 246
: ........................................................................ 246
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................................................................................................ 254
................................ 254
.............................................................................................................. 259
(RSI)....................................................................................................... 263
70 30 ................................................................................................... 269
(K%D)................................................................................................................ 269
%R ............................................................................................................ 275
..................................................................... 277
.................................................................................... 278
- (MACDTM)............ 278
(VA) ......................................... 280
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11.
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- .......... 288
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12.
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13.
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14.
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15.
..................................................401
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16.
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5
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3.
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.................................................................. 471
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.......................................................................................................................................................... 478
1981
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1982
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1984 r ("Commodity Year Book"; Commodity Research
Bureau, Inc)
CRB
19
1970(
.
. 1.3).
CRB
:
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CRB
CRB
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, "
CRB -
27
",
. 4).
CRB
(CPI-W),
(CSCE),
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()
(
).
20
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21
1985
1985
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10%
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10%
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10%.
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.
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Standard & Poor's 500,
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CRB.
/
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1964
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1982
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Technicians Association),
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1984
.)
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29
2.
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1984
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50%)
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3.
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30-
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4.
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32
,
(industrials)
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(transportation),
.
,
, .
,
.
. 2.1
5.
, ,
.
,
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,
33
. 2.2
.
(
) Value Line
S&P
500. , S&P 500
Value Line,
.
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,
. ,
(),
.
, Value Line
S&P 500,
. 2. "".
, ,
.
S
34
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39
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48
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1983
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77
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.
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(.
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.),
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79
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5)
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(
.
. 4.18).
(
. . 4.19).
,
,
81
. 4.18
(5)
.
, 4-6
3-5.
,
,
. 4.19
,
(3-5),
. 4 3-5.
(PERCENTAGE
RETRACEMENTS)
82
50%-
100
200.
50%,
150,
:
,
50%-
,-
1/3 2/3.
33%,
- 66%.
, ^
ec-ira
.. @
..
"^
33%-50%-
(
.
. 4.20
).
66%.
66%,
100%
.
.4.20
50% ,
50%-
.
1/3,
- 2/3 .
83
. 4. 20, 50%
,
86 76 (
5 , 81 ).
2/3
.
,
81
-.
,
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.
,
,
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84
, -
(speedlines)
).
(
.
. 4.21).
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2/3.
1/3 2/3
(
.
. 4.216 ).
),
1/3 2/3
33%- 66%-
2/3).
1/3).
1/3
,
,
,
,
85
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.
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. 4.216
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86
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reversal day),
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87
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,
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102
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129
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1983
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165
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166
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-
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167
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. 7.9- 7.106.)
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10 000,
:
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(high), -
(close), L -
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).
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168
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VA () .
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169
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(
.
10).
(Demand Index),
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170
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8.
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9.
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10.
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176
(blowoffs)
(selling climaxes) -
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.
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177
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.
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,
31-
1984
14% 43%
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2%
.
178
100%.
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,
19% -
62% -
95%.
5%.
(
.
. 7.14),
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1985
"
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CRB,
.
"
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: "
,
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(
,
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.
40%,
5 %
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CRB
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CRB
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179
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21% (
15%).
(16 % -
17% ).
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(
6%).
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(+21%)
(+23%).
(+10%)
(+14%),
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180
181
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70 %
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(63 %).
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"
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.
182
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10).
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183
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.)
1,
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184
).
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- "
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1983.
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"
).
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(20
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28
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CSI.
"
"
186
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"
"
"
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,
"
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--
CSI
: 1)
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,
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187
)
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, "
"
188
(
. 8.7).
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.
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CRB.
.
,
50%
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8.8 8.11
),
. 8.5 8.12).
.
(
. 8.10)
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",
1964 1972
.
CRB (
. 8.2)
189
20
,
,
"
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(
).
CRB
190
(Commodity
Research Bureau Futures Price Index),
27
CRB
CRB
. (
.)
, 1970-
),
CRB
(1980
),
CRB
CRB
20
CRB
).
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CRB
20
1970-
1980-?
191
1970-
,
1970-
1980-
1980
1980
. 8.12
1980
,
1974
1975-1977
,
192
1-7.
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,
,
10-30-
^ ,
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.
,
(. 8.5 8.6).
80%
,
95%
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20
193
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194
. 8.2 .
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, 1982 .
195
. 8.3 .
,
.
.
, .
196
. 8.4 CRB.
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.
197
. 8. 5 , 1980 ,
1974. .
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$1.00, 60. 1977 1980
.
198
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3556.
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199
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,
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200
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201
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202
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203
8. 14(8.14)
73-16.
(8.146) ,
.
204
. 3.15
(8.15). (8.156)
, 1982 1983 .
205
. 8.16
.
1979 .
206
1984 150.
1984
163. .
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,
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207
9.
,-
10 (
). "
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(
. .
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).
208
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("
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(
. . 9.1 ).
209
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.
,
,
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)
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, .
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,
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(price band)
.
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210
. 9.2a
(
) -
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-(
(
).
).
- 10%,
20%.
211
. 9.26
: -
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) -(). -
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"
(55
: 10+9+8. . .+1)
.
-
. ,
, -
.
212
(
,
"
")
""
.
"" "
"
"
"
.
(
.
. 9.3).
),
),
"
"
.
"
"
.
,
.
213
"
".
(,
),
.
,
. 9. 10-40-
. ,
().
().
. 9.36 , 40-
()
10-
214
.
1.
.
2.
"
"
10
50
(, 5
),
1% (
3
).
.
-
.
3.
"
"
.
--
.
215
).
.
4.
"
",
, ,
.
5.
"
"
(volatility bands)
(
. .
9.4 ).
).
. 9.4
. 1,5
. ,
1, 5 %
.
. 9.46
.
,
216
,
.
.
6.
-
(high-low band)
-,
(
.
. 9.5 ).
),
. ,
217
).
,
,
. 9.5
-.
, .
, , ,
.
. 9.56 -
,
218
(
.
. 9.6
-
).
1.
"
".
.
,
-
-
. 9.
.
,
,
,
.
(. . 9.5).
219
. 9. 66 ,
. ,
,
,
,
.
..
-
.
.
.
,
.
2.
220
-,
"
" (How to Build a Fortune in Commodities, R.C. Alien),
1972
.
, 1974
"
-,
-,
-,
-,
-,
"
"
.
,
,
-
,
-
(
.
. 9.7
).
221
. 9.
-
,
.
, , ,
.
.
, ,
,
.
,
222
. 9.7
-, -
.
, , - .
. 9.76 . ,
()
223
)
,
(
.
. 9.7
).
. 1978 1982
"
" .
"
".
1978
"
-
(
.
.
9.1-9.3).
(
.
. 9.4)
:
1.
224
: "
. (
,
.60).
2.
.
3.
(
.
.
).
4.
), -
(
.
. 9.4).
9.1
9.2
-
225
9.3
9.4
- ,
-,
226
. 9.4
. , ,
1970 1976 ,
(
1970 1976
),
1979
,
. (
"
"
",
. 9.5
("
- 1982
").
1981
227
9.5
-
-
-
3,49
117,482
-7,790
160
68
92
GNMA
( 11)
14,47
13,47
4,21
22,50
14,33
4,40
17,43
8,48
14,40
4,28
18,50
6, 50
6,21
23,44
20,45
6,50
160,226
83,565
57,430
324,719
254,744
78,631
94,476
482,769
-4,721
120,899
52,888
5,022
113,178
8,378
393,390
172,454
-8,620
-3,890
-13,560
-7,910
-6,112
-3,909
-12,742
-7,932
-413
-4,367
-8,710
-10,054
-10,410
-17,350
-18,610
-7,467
303
258
286
371
473
169
278
334
88
131
409
368
936
436
530
148
128
114
124
176
250
78
126
184
6
74
182
127
385
132
247
66
175
144
167
195
22
91
152
152
82
57
227
241
551
304
283
82
22,47
13,49
7,29
6, 50
6,18
187,264
127,399
386,557
475,442
74,933
-8.805
-6,573
-21,728
-13,399
-21,423
484
527
1213
500
535
217
206
478
181
200
267
321
735
319
335
25,50
184,487
-10,066
147
81
66
11,47
169,640
-5,282
358
140
218
228
.
"
"
.
,
"
229
.
,
(
.
. 9.8 ).
14
230
. 9. 8
.
,
2.
,
,
-
-,
-,
2.
231
. 9.86
, ,
.
"
",
- "
".
-13,21, 34, 55
.
"21",
'
),
13 (
.
. 9.9
-
).
232
(
.
. 9.10).
. 9.9
,
. , -
. ,
-
.
(
), ,
(),
233
.9.9-, -
, .
() (
), . ,
().
,
.
.9.9-
(
). ,
,
.
,
. ,
, - ()
234
..-
, ,
, , .
,
,
.
,
. () .
.
,
. 9.10
-
. ,
2.30
1980
235
-,
-,
-,
).
,
?
.
,
,
,
10
10.
236
OBV).
(
.
. 9.11 , 9.12)
.
.9.11
,
.
,
237
.9.116
(), ().
-
OBV.
""
),
. 9.12a
/(). -
238
. 9.126
,
RSI.
"
".
1970
"
"
".
"
".
. ( 1983
. -
"
",
).
"
"
:
1.
.
2.
-
-
239
.
"
"
: "
".
,
,
,
"
"
"
"
,
"
"
.
"
"
"
".
"
"(
)"
.
"
"
"
"
1979
240
"
",
"
"
"
",
.
"
"
2.
241
. 9.13 "".
,
,
,
.
,
. ,
-,
-,
,
,
2.
,
,
242
. 9.14 ,
. , , .
, ,
.
.
,
(74 ),
243
.9.15 ,
.
360
.
()
. -
, (320 )
. 9.16
, "" (
,
).
244
,
-.
. ,
"" . ""
. "",
,
.
"
"
.
"
" -
. (.
. 9.13 - 9.16.)
.
"
"
- "
" "
", -
"
" (Technical Trading
Systems for Commodities and Stocks, C. Patel).
245
10.
"
"
"
".
,
,
"
".
(overbought)
(oversold)
.
(divergence)
"
"
.
,
246
. ,
"
"
,
,
0 100 - 1 + 1 -
).
1.
.
2.
.
3.
(momentum).
.
247
).
:
= V - Vx
V -
, Vx -
(
.
.
),
(
.
.
),
. . 1
.
.
248
. 10.16
,
,
, - .
. (.
. 10. la.)
. (.
. 10.16.)
(
.
.
.)
,
,
249
)
,
. (.
. 10.210.26.)
. 10. 2
,
.
250
.
,
. 10.26
(
).
-
. (
).
+1 -1.
.
,
10 (
).
+1
-1,
251
"
"
.
,
95 %
).
. .
(
+100 (
) - 100
(
).
,
.
1
252
. 10.36
CCI.
.
CCI
CCI
,
,
,
. (.
. .
.)
"
"
"
".
.
. 10.4ROC .
. ,
100.
. 10.46
(
)
ROC ().
-
,
253
ROC
= 100 (V/Vx)
V -
Vx
100
. (.
.10.4.)
(
..
),
100,
.
,
:
254
1.
.
2.
"
" ""
).
255
. 10. 6
, . 10. 5,
() 8
, (
) - 48.
. 10.66
, - . ,
256
. 10. 5
,
-
.
. 10.56
, - .
.
. 10.7-
.
- ,
. .
257
. 10.76
(- )
. ,
.
.
3.
.
(.
. 10.5.)
,
,
(
.
.
. (. . 10.6.)
"
" -
.
,
"
"
"",
"
"
, "
"
"
" "
"
,
,
258
.
(.
. 10.7.)
.
.
.
1.
. 10. 8
CRS,
(CRB),
. CRS
CRS
"
"
(CRB).
CRS
259
"
"
CRS
.
2.
.
,
(RSI)
0 100.
70
30
70 30
. (.
. 10.9.)
70,
30.
70
30
260
. 10 9, ,
RSI,
(70 30). 70
, 30
- .
. 10.96
RSI 70 30.
3.
.
,
.
,
.
,
RSI
70
30,
70
30
. (. . ..)
261
. 10. 10, .
(30). ()
(), , , ,
.
,
. ,
.
262
. 10. 10,
, .
. (
. 10.106.)
RSI.
(RSI)
"
"
(New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, Welles Wilder).
).
),
RSI
0 100.
"
"
. "
"
.
,
S&P 500
.
263
,
,
CRB.
"
"
,
RSI
(RSI)
RS,
14.
14.
(RS),
RSI
.
,
. (.
. 10. .)
264
. 10.11a
RSI ()
S&P 500. , ,
, 70 30. ,
.
. . 116
RSI, -
, 10. .
, .
70
30. ,
, -
.
265
RSI
.
,
8,
9.
RSI
RSI
0 100.
70
30,
, "
"
- 80 20.
,
80
, 20
70
30,
"'
" (failure
swing). "
"
(
70)
.
"
"
(
30)
. (.
. 10.12.)
RSI
70 30 -
"
".
RSI
(
.
. 10.1 ).
266
(
), ""
, .
.
. 10.126 "" ,
.
:
(70),
(
) , ,
(
).
RSI
"
-
"
(70
267
30).
, -
.
,
(
,
).
),
"
"
, ,
-
-
,
.
e
opo
o o
e
p
. 10.13
RSI .
268
. 10.136
.
RSI
70 30
70 30.
30
30,
70
70 30
. (.
. 10.14.)
(K%D)
"
, .",
: %%D.
,
269
:
%= 100 [ (- L5) / (5 - L5)],
, L5 -
(0-100%)
70,
30,
. 10.14
S&P 500.
. 10.146 70
, 30
.
,
"
". ,
.
270
(D%) -
%.
D%
:
%D = 100 (H3/L3),
(- L5), L3 -
(5 - L5).
0 100.
"
"
D -
.
(70 30),
RSI.
10 15
85 90
70
30
D -
D.
,
(right-sided crossover)
.
271
. 10.15
.
,
"" %D,
.
70 30
-
. , RSI.
, %
%D
,
.
,
.
. 10.156
.
,
. 1.
(30). 2.
. 3. , ,
D.
272
. (.
. 10.15.)
D.
. (.
. 10.16.)
. 10.16
,
.
273
. 10.166 ()
S&P 500.
(30)
(70).
"
"
.
"
"
"
"
D.
"
"
D,
"
"
.
, "
"
D (
D).
. (.
. 10.17.)
.
"
"
1984
"
". .
"
"
"
1984
.
274
. 10.17.
. 10.176
.
-
. ;
,
.
%R
%R
275
20,
80.
%R.
. (.
. 10.18
.)
. 10.18%R . ,
.
20 80.
,
.
276
. 10.186
%R
"
"
1/2
-,
-,
.
,
RSI
-,
RSI,
,
1/4 1/2
14.
ROC,
RSI
- ,
_
6
.
"
"
~
,
'
"
),
).
,
277
"
"
"
",
. (
13
.)
,
,
-
(MACDTM)
"
.
.
),
278
).
. (.
. 10.19.)
. 10.19MACDTM.
,
, ,
.
.
. .
, MACDTM
. ,
,
279
. 10.196
(VA)
(OBV)
(VA).
.
-
"
".
VA
. (.
. 10.20
.)
280
. 10.20a
.
. 10.206
VA,
7. VA, . -
VA ,
. ,
VA
281
""
"
, ."
"
".
""
"
"
",
,
, ,
.
"
",
.
X.
,
"
",
1954
"
, .
"
",
"
"
(Bullish Consensus numbers),
"
"
"
"
) "
"
"
"
"
".
75% 25%.
282
"
",
"
",
0 100.
"
"
80%,
80%
20%
).
30% (
30%
70% -
),
"
"
.
"
"
"
",
"
"
"
"
'
"
"
"
",
80% 90%
"
".
"" ""
"
"
283
"
",
.
80%
20%
,
(
).
"
"
80%
"
" -
. ,
,
"
"
"
"
55%.
5%
90%, - 20%.
"
"
90% 20%.
80% 30%
"
" -
5%-
"
".
"
"
.
,
"
"
.
,
"
",
50%
.
"
"
.
284
(20%),
-
).
"
"
"
",
5%-
"
"
"
"
"
"
50%
(
80%)
50%,
(20%),
50%,
50%
"
"
"
"
285
286
11.
.
, ,
-
,
- "
-
"
1933
"
",
"
",
"
-
" 20 1901
"
"
"
"
"
1886
. 1933
"
"
, ,
1898
"
"
1904
: "
".
,
1881
.
"
"
1933
- "
".
.
1896
"-
"
,
"
-
"
"
-
".
"
"
"
").
"
-
",
. ,
"
",
, "
"
"
-
".
..
287
"
",
"
" -
.
-
^-
"
"
",
. ,
,
-
288
, ,
),
.
-
"
" -
,
-
,
-
.
,
. 11.1
S&P 500
289
. 11.1 11.2
S&P 500
.
-
,
-
-
.
"
" "
"
11.2.
"
"
"
",
"
"
,
,
,
-
. 11.3 11.4
(
. 11.2- 11.4)
(1.00).
. 11.2
(
.
.
. 11. 2. -
S&P 500
.
1.00,
290
. 11.3
. 11.2
. 11.4
. 11.2 11.3
. 11.2
. 11.3
),
47 26.
. 11.4
14.
291
--
).
).
.
-
.
1978
"
"
28
43
.
).
, 1978
"
" -
"
",
"
",
292
.
,
, ,
.
,
.
5/29
8515
8510
8508
8520
8535
8532
8546
8557
8550
8535
8566
8525
8515
8515
8523
8545
8538
8563
8560
8553
8550
8575
8510
8506
8510
8520
8540
8535
8553
8552
8545
8546
8570
8515
8510
8525
8523
8544
8543
8565
8555
8555
8555
8580
8510
8506
8520
8517
8540
8540
8560
8546
8540
8550
8570
8515
8510
8525
8525
8545
8543
8563
8550
8548
8558
8580
8505
8500
8522
8520
8535
8539
8560
8545
8542
8555
8575
8515
8514
8525
8528
8544
8549
8563
8550
8545
8565
8585
8512
8510
8520
8525
8540
8545
8560
8545
8540
8560
8577
8515
8517
8525
8539
8545
8550
8563
8550
8545
8570
8585
8510
8510
8522
8535
8535
8547
8560
8540
8537
8565
8516
8519
8525
8538
8538
8554
8563
8560
8540
8570
. 11.5.
8500
.
-
,
5.
- "
" "" -
"" "5".
293
("" "5")
.
,
"
" "".
. 11.5
-
,
.
. -
. , ,
8515.
- 8525,
8515 8525.
-8510.
8510.
, -
.
294
- 8515,
,
,
(,
),
8532 (
).
. ,
.
. 11.6
"
",
.
.
11.6
"
".
, ,
295
. 11. 6
, .
, ,
,
.
,
-
,
(),
. ,
-.
. ,
.
4/29
4875
5/2
4870
5/3
4870
5/4
4885
5/5
4905
5/6
4885
5/9
4950
5/10
4940
5/11
4935
4965 4960 4970
4880
4860
4865
4880
4900
4900
4925
4915
4950
4860
4865
4870
4890
4905
4890
4930
4920
4945
4865
4855
4860
4885
4900
4930
4925
4905
4950
4850
4860
4865
4890
4905
4920
4930
4925
4935
4860
4855
4860
4875
4855
4860 4855 4860 4855 4865 4855
4870 4865
4930
4925
4920
4940
4925
4935
4930
4935
4930
4925
4925
4945
4925
4930 4925 4935 4930 4940 4935
4935 4930 4940 4935 4940
4940 4965 4960 4965 4955 4960 4955
. 11.7
.
296
1.
4875.
- 4880 -
2.
- 4860.
4860.
3.
- 4865.
).
- 4850,
,
;
4850.
4.
- 4860.
4860.
5.
- 4855.
4855.
. 11.7-
-
.
,
- .
.
-
.
(
).
297
6.
, -4870.
-.
4870.
, .
,
,
"
"
. 11.76
.
. 11.7
: -,
.
298
(gaps)
.
,
: "
"
, ""
, 1985).
(congestion areas).
.
,
"
"
.
-
"
"
("
" "")
,
,
).
,
,
"
"
299
,
"
"
"
" "
"
"
".
()
. (.
. 11.8.)
. 11.8
, . ,
.
. ,
,
,
300
.
,
,
.
,
-
,
. . 11.9
,
,
,
, "
",
V-
V-
, "
".
"
" (fulcrum).
,
"
"
"
"
"
" "
".
(catapult)
. V-
,
-
. 11.9
"
301
. 11.9 .
. 11.9
,
302
),
).
.
-
. 11.5-11.8
).
(protective stops)
),
303
"
".
.
,
), -
.
,
-
-
,
1978
"
"
"--
".
. (.
. 11.10.)
"
'
.",
"
" "
".
),
. (.
. 11.11.)
304
"
".
. (.
. 11.12-11.14.)
. 11.10 -, "".
, "
" ""
305
- ,
. 11. If
-
,
"
''. - ,
(
).
306
. 11.12
().
,
.
. -
(
- 1/4 ).
.
.
307
. 11.13,
.
.
.
- (
- ),
308
. 11.14(- 1/5
) -
-. ,
. -
(
- 1/10 ) - .
.
-
309
12.
1947
.
"
" (Stock Market Timing, A.W. Cohen),
"
"
: "
-
"
: "
^
-
"
",
. -
,
"
"
"
" "",
. (. . 12.1.)
),
310
311
. 12.1
312
.
,
-
.
,
,
.
,
12.2
.
-
"
1965
,
1914 1964
,
1100
- 1954 1964
,
.
80%
(
,
25%.
313
. 12.2 -.
(56,9%)
-2
S-2
(56,4%) -
-3 -
(87,9%).
S-3 -
(93,5%).
314
2,
S-1 S-8,
1,
- -1 -2
-2
-1
.
-1
-2
-2 -
,
-1.
-3 -
.
,
(-4) -
,
-3,
(-5)
-6 -
).
-7 -
(-8) -
.
S-1 - S-8
.
,
.
-
, ,
, ,
315
-
,
. (.
. 12.3 12.4.)
316
317
318
-7,
).
.
,
1<,
.
,
"
"
,
,
. -
,
319
10.
(31
).
(10) 3 (3
30
320
(
.
. 12.5). -
,
,
.
3 (
.
.
),
.
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
-
.
5.
.
6.
;
.
),
"
"
.
321
""
).
"
" (poles).
,
.
.
1.
-
.
2.
.
3.
-
.
4.
.
5.
.
322
-
1970
1965
.
.
"
".
. 1970
. ,
"
-
I960 1969
.
.
.
"
1975
135
(
17 1974
28
1974
(
.
.
41% 66%,
-
100% 199%.
. (.
. 12.6 -
.)
323
"
".
"
" (
.
. 12.7).
: "
"
"
" (
.
. 12.6).
)
203
205
503
402
203
405
203
406
53
28
203
104
23
1,55
. 12. 6() (
) .
,
-
.
324
"
".
"
".
: "
",
).
"
"
(
.
. 11.2-4,
. 11).
325
. 12.6-
--
.
"
"
",
"
". ,
"
"
".
326
. 12.7
327
,
-
(RSI),
(OBV)
.
,
328
13.
1938
"
"
.
.(1871-1948),
. 1927
. ,
. 1934
"
",
, ,
"
".
1938
"
".
"
".
1939
. 1946
"
": "
,
.
,
1953
"
".
1967
. I960
"
329
. 1967
, 1970
"
"
"
".
1978
"
. 1980
"
",
.
.
, -
).
.
,
"
".
).
.
330
.
,
,
.
. 13.1
(1, 3, 5)
2 4
1 3.
"
", "" "
".
.
,
),
"
",
. 13.1 .
. ^
. 13.2.
- (1)(2)
331
11
- (J)
(
),
. 13.2,
(
.
. 13.3).
(. 13.1-13.3),
),
,
(1), (3) (5) (
. 13.2)
,
(l) -
(2) (4)
(
), (), (
);
(2) (
).
- (
) (
) -
(2). (
),
(2).
. 13.2.
332
).
.
,
(
--
)
, -
,
,
"
"
"
".
X.
"
",
-
,
333
:
"
".
(wave personalities).
"
"
2)
"
"
1.
,
"
"
2.
1,
2.
,
,
"
".
3.
).
(
.
). 3
- ^
4 .
2,
(
.
"
- \
"
).
^_
-i-
'
-j
5.
, OBV 334
.-
. ,
,
(
).
"
"
(
.
"
".
,
1, 3
5
. 13.4
1.
5.
(
.
.
),
3,
5
1.
1 3
57.
335
. 13.4.
"
"
.
. 13.5
"
"
336
. 13.5 "" .
"
"
"
" (failures).
. 13.6 13.7
.
,
6,
.
. 13.8 13.9
"
".
,
5
3.
3.
"
"
337
. 13. 6
(
).
. 13. 7
(
).
,
,
.
,
(zigzags),
(Hats),
338
"
"
: 5-3-5.
. 13.10 13.11
.
.
13.12 13.13
. ,
"
".
. 13.14.
5-3-5,
--
.
3-3-5.
(
.
. 13.16 13.18)
.
. 13.15 - 13.18
. 13.10
(5-3-5).
. 13.11
(5-3-5).
339
. 13.12
(5-3-5). . 13.13
(5-3-5)
. 13.14
.
. 13.19 - 13.22.
. 13.19 13.20)
,
,
. 13.15
(3-3-5).
. 13.16
(3-3-5).
340
. 13.17
(3-3-5).
. 13.18
(3-3-5).
.13.19 ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.20 "" -(3-3-5).
.13.21""
(3-3-5).
.13.22""
(3-3-5).
341
. 13.23 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.24 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.25 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.26 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
342
. 13.23 - 13.26.
"
" (running)
"
"
. 13.27.
,
b
1,
,
,
b,
--
).
343
,
,
6.
. 13.28
).
"
"
).
344
. 13.28
(
).
(
.
. 13.29, 13.30).
(
. 13.29)
--
. . 13.30
--,
).
-
-
"
" ,
-
345
. 13.29 . . 13.30 .
, ,
.
,
--,
4,
-
,
,
2
,
4
-
. 13.31.
. 13. 31 .
4.
,
1 2.
1,
13.32.
346
3,
2
(
.
. 13.32).
3 (.
. 13.33).
3
(
. .
),
1.
347
. 13.33
- 4
"
" ,
"
",
(,
348
"
".
"Liber Abaci" (
: "
").
,
,
. "Libel
Abaci"
:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 (
).
.
1.
: 3+5=8, 5+8=13
.
2.
0,618
(
).
0,618,
.
3.
1,618 (
0,618).
:
13/8=1,625; 21/13=1,615; 34/21=1,619.
0,618 1,618.
4.
0,382,
- 2,618).
: 13/34=0,382; 34/13=2,615.
,
,
.
,
1,618 0,618
"
" "
".
"
"
"
"
-
-.
.
-
, 618
).
349
"
", "
" "
",
"
"
"
",
.
,
).
(. 13.1 13.3),
.
,
,
3 5
:
1.
,
1 3
1 5.
2.
, 1 1,618
2,
.
3.
1
3,236 (2 1,618).
350
1.
.
4.
1 3
,
5,
. -
3,
1, 618.
4.
5.
5-3-5)
.
6.
, 0, 618
,
.
7.
3-3-5,
1,618
.
8.
0,618.
61,8% (
33%, 50%
67%
.
,
38%.
62%.
0,618,
: 1/1
(100%), 1/2 (50%), 2/3 (67%).
50-
2/3
).
(100%)
351
.
,
1,618
3,
,
- 55.
,
,
"
"
,
3,
-
5.
1,
352
).
"
".
.
,
1980 1981
.
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
4.
(5-3-5)
(3-3-5).
5.
).
.
6.
.
7.
.
8.
.
9.
.
10.
11.
.
12.
.
13. 4
1 (
).
14.
):
.
15.
.
16.
.
17.
' '
"
.
"
"
"
",
:
,
,
,
.
,
"
"
"
354
"
").
. 13.1-13.33
"
"
"
",
, "
"
"
.
(Understanding Fibonacci Numbers, E.
Dobson),
"
.
"
"
1983
).
. 13.34-13.41.
(
. 13.42 - 13.49)
, -
,
"
",
(fan lines),
(arcs)
(time zones).
.
,
("
"
).
5, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233
1, 2 3,
355
. 13.34 . 5
.
. 13. 35
. 4
1. , , 5
.
2 4.
356
. 13. 36
()
,
.
(
) -
.
. 1984
357
. 13. 37 .
. 4
,
.
,
4.
358
. 13. 38
.
,
1983
14
.
, 3
,
,
. , ,
,
.
4
.
. 13. 39
,
.
(-) ().
.
. 13. 40 .
(
!) 38%
--,
.
359
. 13. 41
,
--. .
-50%
. ,
, ,
.
4).
"
" (
. 13.42 - 13.49
360
).
. 13. 42 .
,
38%, 50% 62%.
,
. 13. 43 .
, .
.
361
. 13.46 ,
,
1984 ,
.
, ""
.
. 13. 47 .
. ,
.
. 13. 44
.
.
. 13. 45
.
.
, ,
362
, , ,
.
.
363
. 13.48
,
.
. 13.49
,
,
. ,
, .
,
. ,
(
) .
364
14.
,
,
,
,
,
,
"
"
.
"
",
.
365
"
".
6.47,
- 16.35.
4.36,
- 17.03.
22
,
-8
,
?
. -
,
. -
, t
. ,
"
:
1415 1930
.,
9,6
22,20
1527
11,11
- 18,33
- 9, 2
(
. . 14.1 14.2).
. -
,
. 188
9,
.
:
366
.
. 14. 3
18,2
. 14.1
22,2 .
,
,
. ""
,
- .
367
. 14. 2
22,2 .
1982 .
""
,
- .
1940
"
",
. 14. 3 ,
18, 2 .
1970
.
"
368
"
"
. 14. 4
. ,
,
-
, .
.
,
,
.
,
.
(
. 14. 4)
(trough),
(crest).
(
. . 14. 5)
369
(
.
. 14. 6)
.
(
.
. 14. 7)
.
,
),
. 14. 5 .
( -5
+5 ).
.
. 14. 6 . ,
. ,
370
,
, , - ,
. ,
.
. 14. 7
,
, ,
. 14. 8
.
,
, "2".
"
",
9,
, "
",
,
"
"
.
371
. 14. 8 .
,
372
. 14. 9
.
.
(
.
. 14. 9)
. ,
,
373
"
".
18
9
54
18
9
77.94
38.97
19.48
9.74
4.97
68.2
34.1
17.0
8.5
4.3
. 14. 10
.
(
.
. 14. 106)
3, 2.
,
,
"".
40, 20, 10 5
. ,
-,
-,
-,
"
"
.
374
18
9
54
18
40
20
80
40
20
10
5
. 14. 106 .
.
. 14.11
(
.
. 14. 12),
,
"
".
. V-
"
"
375
. ,
376
. 14. 12
. . 14. 126 .
. 14. 11
(
.
. 14. 13).
(long-term)
(
),
(seasonal)
),
(primary),
(intermediate)
),
(trading)
(
).
377
. (
"
", "
", "
" "
"
).
. 14. 13 .
(Kondra-tieff cycle). ,
,
,
,
1789
. . (
.
. 14. 14).
).
,
378
"
1984
.
).
379
380
(
.
. 14.
13).
),
CRB (
. . 14. 15).
CRB
CRB,
CRB
. ,
CRB
1950-
381
. 14. 15 CRB
.
. .
20
- 10 5.
-,
-,
CRB,
,
,
, -
382
"
",
,
"
"
,
,
),
,|
.
_
^
^"1
^^
'^-''
.
,
(
.
. 14.16 14.17).
),
),
"
"
,
"
" "
"
383
.
,
(
.
. 14.18
-
).
. -
,
.
,
50%
66%
),
384
. 14. 16 :
(. ),
(. ),
(. ). ,
.
, - .
, ,
385
. 14. 17
,
.
1950 1968 ,
1968
1975
1975
.
)
(
)
,
-
,
"
" "
"
HAL,
. 14. 18.
1982
,
,
1984 .
.
. 14. 186 . "",
HAL Market
Cycles,
386
.
,
.
,
. 14. 18() , ,
.
. 14. 18
.
387
.
,
"
"(Ehrlich Cycle
Finder),
,
-
(
.
. 14. 19
-
).
,
"
"
"
, "
"
-
-
"
"
"
", .
(MEM). (
).
(detrending).
388
. 14. 19a
"
",
"".
,
.
. 14. )9"" , , .
,
,
. ,
18 - 36,
.
389
. 14. 19"
"
(
)
. ,
,
"",
.
. 14. 19
, .
,
"" .
- ,
"".
,
.
390
. 14. 20
S&P.
. 14. 20.
,
.
,
391
. 14. 20
S&P
.
,
. "
"
.
. 14. 20,
. (
.)
: ,
,
392
(
.
. 14. 20
-
).
),
"
".
70%
, 75%
).
.
,
(
.
. 14.21 ).
80%,
.
393
65%
14 21a .
,
-
-.
394
. 14. 21
. -
,
.
-
,
, -
.
,
(time windows)
(timing bands),
"
"
,
395
(
Commodity Advisors) .
. -
,
"
, -
).
).
).
,
70%
"
HAL ",
HAL
"
",
6),
(,
),
,
-
,
, -
396
. 14. 22
.
,
.
,
,
,
.
),
4 (
. . 14. 22).
Hal,
.
(The Hal Blue Book, W.J. Bressert and J.H. Jones),
(momentum).
.
"
",
1973
.
%R
(.
10).
,
, "
"
397
28
-
,
Hal
),
).
,
: 20, 10 5.
(
.
. 14. 23).
. 14. 23
S&P 500.
. 14. 236
HAL.
: ,
.
.
, .
398
.
"
"
.
,
Hal
%R
".
"
"
..
399
"
,
,
.
,
"
" (
"
" (How
to Profit From Seasonal Commodity Spreads),
1983
.
"
".
(SIRE),
: ,
(
Commodity Advisors),
- .
400
15.
,
,
,
,
.
"
"
"
",
.
401
,
,
,
,
"
".
"
"
"
"
"
"
,
,
"
"
),
(Artificial Intelligence),
(Pattern Recognition).
""
"
"
IBM-PC, XT, AT
"".
IBM-
. "
"
PC,
.
"
"
402
"
".
,
"
"
on-line
.
,
.
. 15.1 1.
"
".
"
1" (
.
. 15.1).
(F1-P8),
*.
.
F1 - "
" (Studies).
403
4.
F2 - "" (Window).
.
F3 - "
" (Files).
.
F4 - "
" (Bar Cht).
.
"
"
(
)
.
F5 - "
" (Output).
.
F6 - "
" (Tools).
3.
F7 - "
" (Screen).
.
F8 - "
" (Zoom).
"zooming in",
,
"zooming out"
1,
IBM.
(F1-P12).
. (.
.)
.
"
"
"7" (Screen).
. 15.2 2.
404
("
1"),
2 (. . 15.2).
.
,
F1 - ".
" (Legend)
F3 -"
" (Log)
F7 - "
" (Mode)
.
. 15.3 3.
"
"
"
"
F6
(
3
.
F1 - "
" (Trend).
.
F2 - "
" (Envelope).
(
.
9).
F3 - "" (Cycle).
(
.
14).
F4 - "
" (%Retrace).
..
.
F5 - "
" (Compress).
:
,
.
F6 - "
" (Profit).
"
",
405
"
").
F7 - "
" (Misc.).
(
.
13) "
"
.
F8 - "
" (Fourier).
.
F9 - "
" (EqVol).
.
"
"
. 15.4 4.
"
".
,
, "
"
"
"
. 15.13
; 15.14).
"
".
406
F1
(
1
. 15.4 ( 4).
, "
" (Volume)
""
4 (
),
:
- "
" (Simple)
- "
" (Histogram)
- "
),
OBV, VA VAO (
7).
"N",
"
:
- "
" (Simple)
- "
" (Weighted)
- "
" (Exponential)
).
OBV,
"
"
9).
.
,
-
,
RSI
"Enter".
(Advance-Decline),
TRIN
407
(Demand Index)
).
(Detrend)
HAL
14,
(MACD),
),
),
(ROC),
(RSI),
(K%D),
(%R)
10,
(swing index),
. : "
"
"
1978
"
":
CSI, RSI
. 15.5
. SAR,
"
".
, ,
,
,
408
. 15. 6
,
.
. 15. 7
S&P
500. ,
.
"" (,
) ,
,
.
. 15. 8 ,
- .
409
(SAR)
(SAR)
"SAR" -
: "
").
). "
"
(trailing stops), -
(
.
. 15.5-15.8).
SAR)
).
SAR
SAR
"
".
,
.
,
(
.
. 15.5, 15.6).
S&P 500
(
.
. 15.7 15.8)
,
"
"
S&P 500 (
.
. 15.7)
410
30%
).
70%
"
" (DMI)
"
"
" (
.
.
).
ADXR
"
"
100.
ADXR,
.
. 15. 9
ADXR
S&P 500
(
.
).
ADXR (20)
S&P 500 (
ADXR 10).
. 15.9
""
.
ADRX
20 (
S&P),
, . ADRX (
) .
,
, .
411
. 15.10
-DI,
-DI, , .
(
) "" .
(
.
. 15.5 15.7),
S&P 500.
"
",
ADXR
0 100 ,
.
,
"
"
- "
"
).
"
"
412
. 15.
,
""
.
. 15. 116 DMI ()
.
DMI
"" . ADXR (
)
,
DMI
- +DI -DI.
(
.
.
(
.
.
DMI
. 15.10:
- +DI ,
- -DI.
+DI
-DI,
, -
.
"
"
(
.
. 15.
).
DMI (
DMI
DMI,
-DMI
.
(. . 15.116)
ADXR
"
"
),
),
413
ADXR
"
"
ADXR
CSI.
"
" (CSI),
-,
ADXR
(
"
").
(Average
True Range - ATR),
DMI,
,
CSI
"
",
).
CSI
,
,
OBV
VA,
:
CCI,
,
MACD,
%R
,
RSI,
VA,
HAL;
HAL,
, "
",
);
414
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-
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,
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.
(.
. 15.12 - 15.14.)
),
"
" (Profitability
Editor)
"
415
. 15. 12
.
.
. 15.126 "
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416
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417
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418
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1980
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1985
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421
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200
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423
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100 000
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434
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301
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289
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439
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443
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461
CRB,
CRB
CRB
-,
462
"
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Meats, and other Commodities),
.
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14) "
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463
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10 000
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100 ).
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(Inside the
Commodity Options Markets, J.Labuszewski and J.Sinquefield).
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3.
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360
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30, 90,
120, 180 360
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13.
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45
471
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(1 1),
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477
(.
. 3.3-3.7.
3).
.
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1942
,
1951
1976).
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478
.
064145 21.06.1995
.
23.09.96.
70 108 V16
.
.
. 51,8.
1000
763.
125445,
.,
. 134
.
(095) 400-35-40
. 143200,
.
, .
, 93
479