John J.

Murphy
Technical Analysis of the
Futures Markets:
A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and
Applications
New York Institute of Finance A Prentice-Hall Company

1996

:
.,
.

.
.

. - .:
, 1996. - 592
.

"

''.

.
"

''

.
Copyright 1986 by Prentice Hall AU Rights Reserved
1

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2.
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3.

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(PERCENTAGE RETRACEMENTS) ................... 82
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5.

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6.

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7.

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10.

"

" ...........................................246

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................................................................................................ 254
................................ 254
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(RSI)....................................................................................................... 263
70 30 ................................................................................................... 269
(K%D)................................................................................................................ 269
%R ............................................................................................................ 275
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- (MACDTM)............ 278
(VA) ......................................... 280
"" ........................................................................................................................... 282

11.
-

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15.

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- ...................... 418

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16.

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5

........................................................................................................................................................ 427
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: "" ""
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1.

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2.
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3.
:

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1981

.
,

"

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,

,

,
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,
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. 2).

-
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4,

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5 6

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(OBV),

(VA) .

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".

()

,
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10

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11

.
9

12

.
,

13

14

15

"

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1 14,

16

, -

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1 2. ,

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3.

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.

11

1.

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1.

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.
3.

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),

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12

.
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(trend) -

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,

(trendfollowing),

(
.
. 1.1).

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. 1.1 . ,

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:
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14

,
:

.
,

. (

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).

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-
15

,
,

"

" (leverage).

10%)

,
,

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"

-
.

,

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..

.
16

"

",

- "

".

"

",

(stock index futures),

(International Stock Markets) (

.
. 1.2).

17

.
-

. ,

. 1.2

18

"

"

"

".

:
"

."

Standarand & Poor's 500

Standard & Poor's

500.

1982

.
-

(CSCE)

(Housing Starts)

(Consumer Price Index for

Wage Earners).

(Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index).

"

"
. ,

"

"
1984 r ("Commodity Year Book"; Commodity Research
Bureau, Inc)

CRB

19

1970(
.
. 1.3).

CRB

:
"

CRB

CRB

". (

, "

CRB -

27

",

. 4).

CRB

(CPI-W),

(CSCE),

. 1.3

()

(
).

20

"

" (chartist) "

" (technician)
,

"

"

.

-

"

".
"

",

-.

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,
,

"art-charting".

.
"

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" (black box);

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21

1985

1985

"

"

).

"

"

10%

"

" (leverage),

.
-

10%

10%

.
-

,
"

"

,
22

10%.

"

",

30

, 200
.

40
.

: 4, 9 18
.

, ,

-
Standard & Poor's 500,

'

CRB.

/
(new highs-new lows index),

(advance-decline line),

(short-interest ratio),

.
23

. .
-

"

".

.
,

(sentiment indicators)

(now of funds analysis).

-
,

"

"

,
,

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"
(contrary opinion theory),

"

".

: "

, ,

".

"

" (Random Walk Theory)

"

" (buy and hold),

.
24

"

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,
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(...)"
. "

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.17.)

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-
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.
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25

,
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(money management),

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.
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26

,
.

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.383.)

: "

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.383.)

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""

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"

",

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1964
.

.

"

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(
. . 1.4).

27

),

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,
"

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,
,

"

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70-

"

" (Issues in
Futures Markets: A Survey),

"

"
1982
.

"

".

. -

"

" (A Random Walk Down Wall

Street, 1973).

28

, 1.4 "" ,
,

"

"

(Market
Technicians Association),

:
"...

. " (

"

" (Newsletter)

1984
.)

.
29

2.

"

" 3
1984

"

".

"

"

: "

".

3
1884

11

, 9

1897

12

20

. 1928

12, 30

, 1929

1884
,

"-",

1882
.

, "

80

".

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",

1890-

. 1902

, 1903

"

" (The ABC of Stock

Speculation, S.A.Nelson).

"

".

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, ,

.
30

"

".

"

"

"
",

.
1922

"

" (The Stock Market Barometer, William Peter Hamilton).

"

" (Dow Theory,

Robert Rhea),

1932
.

1.

,
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.
,

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.
2.

4,

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31

,
50%)

4,

.
3.

(accumulation),

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"

" (distribute),

. .

30-

"
".

.
4.

(
.
.2.1).

.'

(
.
. 2.2).

32

,
(industrials)
. ,

(transportation),

.
,

, .
,
.
. 2.1

5.

, ,

.
,

,
,

33

. 2.2

.
(
) Value Line
S&P
500. , S&P 500

Value Line,

.
, Value Line
,

. ,
(),

.
, Value Line
S&P 500,

. 2. "".

, ,

.
S

34

.
. 2.3"

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S1,
, ,

,
(82).

6.

1,

(
.
. 2. 2.3.6).

.2.4"" . ()

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. 2.46 "" .
1

2.

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,

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2.

S)

35

"

" (failure swing).

2.36

S1

.

,

,


.

D,

S2,

. 2.36,

"

" (nonfailure swing).

"

" (

. 2.
).

1,42.46

.
"
"

. ""

"

".

,
,

. ,

, 20% 25%

, ,

"
"

:
1920 1975

68%

67%

S&P 500.

. ,

,
36

"

",

. .

,
37

.
"

"

(Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Robert D.Edwards and John Magee).

38

3.

,
,

(daily bar chart)

. ,

. -

-
-

.
3.1.

. 3.1

39

, .

.
.

(closing prise).

(opening price).

3.2.

3.3.

()
().

-
.

3.3,

3 2
.

,
.

40

ADP Comtrend's Videcom,

, 15
1

. (.
. 3.4 3.5 ).

. 3.4

41

.
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,
. 3.1 3.2.

()

(). ,
- .
-. ,

. 3.56

. -
.

42

(.
. 3.6 3.7).

3.6

10

50

55.

-10%.

10

20 (

100%)

,
20
40
40 80.

1 2

5 10,

. 3. 6 . ,
,
(

) .
. 3.5
-
.

43

. 3.7
- .
. ,
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(
Y)

(
X)

(
.
. 3.8).

44

. 3.8 8 . -

.
- .

) ().

.
.

,
.

-
(volume)

(open interest).

"
"

(
.
. 3.9).

45

. 3.9 .
.
.

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.
46

, ,
,

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.
,

(
.
. 3.10).

3.10

"

".

(open),

(high),

(low),

(settle)

(Est. vol.)

(vol)

(open int)

"
" (+) "
" (-)

7.
47

.3.10
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48

.
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5,

(
.
. 3.11).

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49

. 3.11
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.

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5
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(
.
. 3.12 3.13).

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50

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51

. 3.14 ""

- ,

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52

. ,

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.

. 3.14).

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53

4.

(trend)

: "

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(.
. 4.1
-
).

. 4. la .

. 4.16 .

54

. 4.1, .
"" (trendless).

. 4.1
.

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55

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4.2).

56

. 4.2: ,
. 1, 2,
3, 4

. 2-3
.
,
()
. , 2-3
--.

. 4.2

(
1, 2, 3, 4).

2-3)

.
,

,
2-3

(, ).

.
4

,
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-

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,

57

. 4.26
-,

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-,
, (
) .
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.

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4.
2 4

(
. . 4. ).

58

. 4.

. 2 4 -

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.
1 3 - , .
. 4.36
.

. . 4.
1 3

. . 4.36

1 3 -

2 4 -

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.
59

. 4.4. 5
3, 4.
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. 4.46 . ,

(), 5
3.
4

60

. 4.4

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(
)

5
6,

4.4
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. 4.4
5

3,

4).

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61

breakeven point).

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62

.
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4.5-

4.

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(1)

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4.56

.
1 (

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.

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4).

63

. 4.5,
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1 ,

4.
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. 4.56 , ,
.
, (1) (4).

""

,
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?

10-

3-5 %.

64

. 4.5,
, ,
.
.

, ,

(10, 20, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200

.)

"

"

. 1982

300

1983

500

400

,
, 1983

400

400

).

300

450

350

300

65

250

. 1974

200

, 1976
,

100

. ,

(protective stops)

, 4, 01.

3,50

, 3.49.

(trendline) (.
. 4.6
-
).

. ,

4.6

(
.
. 4.66).

66

. 4. 6.

.
,
(1 3),

(5).
. 4.66
.

(1 3),
,

(5).

. 4. 6.

,
67

4.6

3 (

),

1 3.

2,

2-3,

2.
,

. 4.6
,

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.
5

,

,

, ,

4.74.76

..
68

. 4.7a , ,

, ,

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. 9

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9
.
. 4.76
5 7
. (
9)

-

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(
. . 4.8).
69

. 4.8

:
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(
. . 4.9).

4.9

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(.
. 4.9).

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(

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,

. 4.9
:
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70

3%)(

'

).

400

3% (

3% 400

,
.
.
12

388

).

12

)
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.
,

.^

(
.

. 4.10
-
).

),

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71

. 4.10a ,

,
.
. 4.106 ,
.

. 4.10, ,
,
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. ,
,

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72

(price
objectives).

50

).

50

"

",

"

"
"
"

(.
. 4.11
-).

).
. 4.

1,

2),

(3).

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. ,
1 2
.
. 4.116
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. , 1 2

73

. 4.11.

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4.116

(
3)

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);

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45.

45

45

..

. (

45.

3).

(. 1
. 4.12),

45,

"

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3,

45

. 4. 12
45 (2).
(1),

,
. ,

, .

,
45 "

75

(
.
. 4.13
. 4.14 ).

.
. 4.13

(1)

(2).

4.14,

(1),

(2).

. 4.13 .

, ,
"
"
.

.
,

, -

76

. 4. 14a
(1). 1
,

,
,

4. 14

,
.
,

.
.

(
.

. 4.15).
77

.4.15

,
. 1 -
,
. 2,3 4

. ,
, 5

. ,

.

(channel line),

(return line),

(.
.4.16
.),

(
2).

(
4).

5),

(
.
.4.166),
,

78

.4.16. ,

(1 3),

().

2.
.4.166 .

(
2), ,

1 .

79

. 4.168 ,
"" . ,
,
, . () .

80

.
.4.17 ,

(
5),

, -
,

.4.17

,
. ,

(
5)
(6).

(
.
. 4.18 4.19).

(
.

. 4.18).

(
. . 4.19).

,
,

81

. 4.18

(5)

.
, 4-6
3-5.

,
,

. 4.19
,
(3-5),
. 4 3-5.

(PERCENTAGE
RETRACEMENTS)

82

50%-

100

200.

50%,

150,

:
,

50%-

,-

1/3 2/3.

33%,

- 66%.

, ^

ec-ira

.. @
..

"^

33%-50%-

(
.
. 4.20
).

66%.

66%,

100%

.
.4.20
50% ,

50%-
.
1/3,
- 2/3 .

83

. 4. 20, 50%
,
86 76 (
5 , 81 ).
2/3

.
,
81
-.
,

,
, ,

, -50%, 33% 66% -

: 38% 62%.

"
":

3^__3^%,

- 62% 66%.

-40% 60%,

.
,

,
""

: 1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, 7/8, 8/8.

3/8 (38%), 4/8 (50%) 5/8 (62%)

: 1/3 (33%) 2/3

(66%).

84

, -

(speed resistance lines)

(speedlines)

).

(
.
. 4.21).

1/3

2/3.

1/3 2/3

(
.
. 4.216 ).

),

1/3 2/3

33%- 66%-

2/3).

1/3).

1/3

,
,

,
,

85

.4.21
.

! 2 . -

2/3, -

1/3.

. .
.
. 4.216
.

86

.4.21

.
2/3,
,

. 1/3
, .

1/3,

-. ,

,
,
,

, .

(2/3)

(1/3),

(reversal day).

(top
reversal day),

(bottom reversal day),

(buying or selling climax),

(key reversal day).

(two-day reversal).

87

.
.4.22 .
,
.
. 4.226
. ,
"
".

.4.22
S&P 500
,

"".

.
.4.22
-
,

88

(outside day).

"

"

"

".

(
.
. 4.23'6).

"

" (overbought). .

.
.4.23

, .
. 4. 236

, .

89

,
"

"

"

"

. (

,
-

"

".

: "

."

.)

"

".

"

".
90

,
,

: "

".
,

(common gap),
"

"
(breakaway gap),
"
"

(runaway or measuring gap) ,

,
"

" (exhaustion gap).

"

".

"

".

"

"), (

"
")

"

".

"

".

91

.4.24

. "
"

. "" (
"" ), ""
"
"
"" .
, "" ""
.

"

"

),

(
.

. 4.24
-).

92

. 4. 246
,

,
. "

, , , , "

,
. ,

.
"",
,

93

. 4.24s
,
,
.
,

,

. - .

"

"

(
,

).

"".

"

"

, ,

"

",

"

"

"

".

("

" "
")

"

".

"

".

94

"

"

"

".

"

"

"

"

"

"

.
,

"

"

95

5.

,
"

", "

", "

-
",

"

"

.
,
,
,

.
,

:
"

" (head and shoulders),

(triple tops and bottoms),

96

(double tops and bottoms), V-

"",

"spike")

"
" (rounding pattern or saucer).

),

:
1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

.
5.

.
6.
,

,
,

,
,

"

".

97

.
,

100%

"

",

),

(count).

),

"

"

.
,

.
,

98

: "

",

7.

""

"

".

"

"

"

".

"

".

"

",

. ,

"

" (
.

. 5.1 ).

),

.
,
,

,
-

D,

).

:
,

99

. 5. la "
" . ()
. () ,
. ,

.
,

"" (2).

,
. ,
.

5.16 "
" . ,
"" ,
"". ,
"".
,
"", ,
.
"", "",

100

(
),

(
). (

D.)

( 1)

D.

:
,

.
""

D).

"
".

2.

).

"

"

"
"

D,

D)

, D, F.

"
".

"
"

D (

G),

, ,

"
"

"

"

:
101

1.

.
2.

(
),

).
3.

).
4.

(
D).
5.

),

"

" (

).
6.

""

.
7.

"
" (

G)

("

")

("
"

).

3%-

"
" (

"

").

"

" (

"

",

("

")

"

".

"
").

"
",

.
,

"

".

"

" (

)
"
".

"
".

102


"

"

100,
"
" -

80.

20.

20

"
"

(
. 5.1) "
"

82,

62 (82 - 20 = 62).
,

CD).

2.

),

4,

"

".

"

"
),

).

30

100.

30.

"

" -

.
,

,
,

"

".

100%

50%- 66%-

,I

103

30.

32

32.

""

"

"

"

"
(head and shoulders bottom or inverse head and shoulders) -

5.2
,

"

"

,

"
".
"
"

,


.

,
,

"
"

,
,

.
,

"

"

"

".

. 5.2"
'.

.
"" ,
. ,

104


, .

-,

"
",

,
, "

",
-

"

"

"

"
.

"

"

,

,

"
".

"

"

"

".

"

"

"

"

105

. 5.26 "" . "" ,

"" - . "",
- , V
.

CRB
"",
.

"
"

, "
"

"
".

""

"
"

,
,

,
"
"

.
,

, ,

""

"

",

"

" (complex head and shoulders pattern).

"
",

"

".

"

".

"

"

.
106

""

. .
5.3
,

"

"

"

".

"

",

5.3 "".
, () .

.:
,

, (
),

(1).

""

"

"

D),

50%-
66%-

D ,

,
"
"

"
"

"
"

""

"
"

"

",

"
".
107

,
"
"

"" -

, .

"

" (failed head and shoulders pattern).

,
,
-

(
"
"

.
-
,

. -

16,

,
,
,

""

"

".

"

"

6,

"

",

(
.
. 5.4
-).

,
"

",

(.
. 5.4
).

: "

"

, ,

108

).

5.4. "
",
,

.
. ,

,
. ,
.
. 5.46
.
"",

,
.
,
,
.

"

".

"

",

109

. 5.4. ,

-
250. ,
(220)
. ,

. ,
,

"

",
,

(
.
. 5.5
-).
. 5.5

"",

-
"W".

"

"

,
.

110

. 5.5. (
),
.
,
,
. ,
, D
.

. ,

, .

.
. 5.56 . .
,
,
.
.

(
.
. 5.5
)

(
);

),

(
)

.
"

"?
,

111

. 5.5s .

5800,

- .
6116,

.
,

72.
.

6916.

),

112

. 5.5. --
,
30.

. -
,

. ,

113

. 5.5

. "
",

1983 . ,
,
.

150

174. ,
1984 .
.

148 .
, ,
.

. -
,

, 1%-3%-). -

, ,

114

"

" (
. .
5.65.66).

.
""

"

" "

"

. 5.7
.

.
. 5.76

. 5.6. "
".
,

, . ,

115

.
. 5. 66 ,
.

,
.
. ,
.
,

. (

.)

.
. 5.7a

. ,

,

,
.
. 5.76

.
, .
,

,
.

116

""

: "

", "

", "

", "
".

"

" (inverted).

5.8
5.86

"

".

. 5.8
"" .

, ,
. ,

"".
"".

(. . 5.86).

"

",

"".

117

,
,

"

",

,

"
"

(
),

"

".

. 5.86
""
. ,

. .

. ,
.

(
), ,

(
).

"

",

.
,

"
".

. .

, "
"

. 70-

, 80-

"

"

"".
118

. 5.8
"", "
".

,
.
.

V-" "

V-

"
")

,
,

,-

.
-

"

".

, V-

. V-

4).

, ,

V-

(
. 5.9
-
).
119

V-

. 5.9V-
"". , ,

"" .

,
. " "

..
. 5.96 V-
""
.
,

"

".

, -

"

"

V-

V-

"
" -

120

. 5.9V-.
V-
, .
.

50%),

).

"

"

121

7).

(trailing protective stops).

V-

V-

V-

(extended V).

. 5.10
.

"

" (

6).

V-

V-

V-

V-

(
. . 5.106).

122

. 5.10a V-.

,
. ,
,

, .

.
.
. 5.106 V-.

. V-

, ,

,
.

"

",

, "
" V-

"".
,

"

",

V-

"

".

: "

".

123

6.

"

".

"

" -

,
,

(symmetrical),

(ascending)

(descending) (

"

" (expanding triangle) "

" (broadening formation),

).

.
-.

(
.
. 6.1
)

"

" (coil).
124

(
.
. 6.16)

. 6.1a
.
.
,

. - ,
,

, .

. 6.16 .

. .
. 6.1.

(
. .1),

125

"

" -

,

, . 6.1

,
,

6.1

1,

2,

3.
,
3

1.

3.

2.

(1,2, 3, 4)

(
. . 6.1
)-

).

3/4

3/4 ,

).

.

/
126

'

-].
_

"

'

'

-
.

,
,

,
. . 6.2-

127

.6.2

.

(-)

,
(
) .

(
)

),

128

. 6.26

()

, , (242) .

129

. 6.2
.
1983
.

7.00 8.00 .

.
. 6.

,
-

.
,
130

,
,

,

-

. 6.
. ,

.
.
.

() .

. 6.36

131

.
,

..

. ,

,
.
- "" "
",

. , .
. .

.
,

.

V-

. .
,

132

. 6.

. ,
, -
. 47,4 %
(
).
,

50%.

"

".

133

(
.
. 6.4).

. 6.4

(-), ().

134

. 6.46

,
, ,

. ,
"

"
,
6.00
. , , ,

_
^

~~

. ,

" "

"

"

135

. "

",

. 6.5
,

"

"

"

"

(
.
.5
).

(
1, 3 5)

2
4),

(4),

(2).

. 6.5"".

.
, .

"

"

6).

136

50%

.
,

"

"

"
".

. 6.56 "".

, .

"

" -

""
"

" -

137

.
(
.

. .
) ,

"

"

.
.
. , .

,
.
, .

,

.

"

"
"

"

138

. 6.66 .

, - .

. 6. 6
.

139

"

" "

"
,

. -

(.
6.7),

. 6.7a

.
,
, , .
.

140

. 6.76 .
, .
.

,
.

"

".
"

"

. "

"

.
,

,

"

"

141

. 6. 7

.
, .

^[

__

142

. 6.7
, .
- .

.
1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

.
5.

.
6.

.
7.

.
8.

143

(wedge)

,
,

(
.
. .8
)

(
.
. 6.86)

. . 8,
.
,
, .
.

. 6. 86 . ,
.
. .8
. () - "
"
.
(-) - , . -
(). (-) ,
.

144

. 6.8
, .

.
.

145

, .

.
,

.
,

, -

,
,

, -

).

,

, -

&
,

(
.
. .9
-
).

"

)
" wm

"

".

. 6.
.

146

"
".

.

.

. 6.96
.

,
""
, , .

.
(
.
. 6.9
)

"

"

"

"

"
".

"

",

"
",

"

"

,
(

"

"

10)

147

. 6.9""
.

"
"
. ,

"
"

15

"

",

148

"

"

"

" (

""
"

" (measured move)
"

",

, -

(.
. .
). "

"

).

. 6.10"

" .
(C-D)
(-).

(-)

().

"

"

.
.
:

(

)

),

(-).

D),
,

(-).

149

()

"

",

. 6.106 "

" . ,

(C-D)
(-).

() ,
, ,

""

"

",

,
"

",

. (

150

!)

"

",

"

",

(. 6.1 la)

"
".

(
. 6.116)

"

",

. (

).

. 6. "".

. 6. "".

"

"

"".

).

"
",

(
.
. ,

.
151

: "

".

. 6.11

(),

"",
.
"",

,
"".
.

,
-

152

,
,

"

"

9,

,
,

"

" "

"
.

"

",

(How Charts Are Used

in Commodity Price Forecasting, W. L. Jiler).
"

"

"

."

1972

"-

" (

"

").

""

"

" (Technical Reliability Index).

153

70%-

, "
"

,
,

154

10,

,
.

155

7.

:
,

3.

.
,

(
.
.

- 1 10

, -
,

156

(
.
. 7.1).

(
)

(. . 7.1).

).

),

.
(
.
. 7.1)

),

157

. 7.1
,

. ,
.

.
.

1.

2.
(
)

3.

4.

158

.
,

159

. 7.2 ,
.

, ,

,
. ,

, -
,

-
. -
.

).
,

(
. . 7.2).

).

(
. 7.3 7.4).

160

. 7.3 , ,
,
. ,

, .

, -
, , , .

.7. 4
, .

161

,
.

. ,

!).

,
,

"

",

"

"

"
"

(
.
. 7.5).

5
.

. ,
. 7.

162

.
.

,

.

.
OBV (On Balance Volume)

(
.
. 7.6
-7.8).

"

"

OBV.

.
-

"

" (Granville's New Key to Stock Market

Profits, J. Granville).

OBV

OBV

163

. 7.6

. , "
"

.
.7. 66
-
OBV. ,

(
.
. 7.6)

.
.7.6

OBV.

OBV.
164

^,

).

OBV

OBV
(

),

. ,

10 000

OBV.

OBV

),

,
,

OBV

.
,

)
(

).

^-

OBV

OBV.

.
VA (Volume Accumulation)

OBV

OBV -

OBV.

165

. 7.7OBV (
).
OBV,
.
. 7.76 OBV , ,
, .
, .

166

. 7. 8, ,
S&P 500.
. 7. 86 OBV. ,
-
.

167

(Volume Accumulation - VA),

"

" -

-
.

).

OBV

VA

),

. (.
. 7.9- 7.106.)

. ,

10 000,

:
VA == {[(C-L) - (H-C)]/(H-L)} x V

(high), -

(close), L -

(low), V -
(volume).

. 7, ,

.
.7.96 OBV () VA (
).
.

168

. 7. ?0

.
. 7.106
. OBV ()

VA () .

VA;

169

VA

OBV.

VA

(
.

10).

(Demand Index),

"

".

. "

"

OBV,

).

OBV

),

).

OBV

. -
,

. -

170

? ,

OBV.

(uptick)

(downtick)
.

.
1.

),

).
2.

).

"

".
3.

.
4.

.
171

:
1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

:
1.

(
.
. 7.11).
2.

(.
. 7.12).

172

. 7.

-
,

, ,
. , .

173

. 7.11

- , ,
, ,
.

3.

"

",

,
,

. 7.5,

).

174

. 7.12 ,

,
.
2 . ,

,
. ,

.
,
.

"

",

),

,
,

),

.
,

175

).

"

)^
",

.
4.

,
"
"
"

",

.
1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

.
5.

.
6.

.
7.

.
8.

.
9.

.
10.

.
176

(blowoffs)

(selling climaxes) -

(
.
. 7.13).

).

""

"

" (Commitments of Traders Report)

(CFTC)

: "

", "

",
"

".

"

".

177

. /. (3
.

, (
!) ,

.
,

"

")

(
.
. 7.14).

"

" (

.
. 7.14

"

",

: "%

", "%

", "%

-
" "%

/
"
(

"

").

,
,

31-

1984

14% 43%

"- 29"

29% (43% - 14%).

"- 2"

2%

.
178

100%.

- 14%

,
19% -

62% -

95%.

5%.

(
.
. 7.14),

"

"

1985
"

" (Commodity Year Book),

CRB,

.
"

".

: "
,

. 7.14

(
,

) 31 1984 .
.

40%,

5 %

".

CRB

. 7.15

CRB

).

.
179

"

"

CRB Futures Chart Service 18

1985

): "

"

."

21% (

15%).

(16 % -

17% ).

8%),

(
6%).

29%

,
(-8% +21%),

- 22% (+6% -16%).

-

.

(+21%),

(+14%),

(+21%)

(+23%).

(+10%)

(+14%),

(-10%)

180

181

.7.15 ,

70 %

).

).

(62 %)
(63 %).

NYSE Composite (62 %) Value

Line (77%).

"

"

) -

.
182

"

" -

. (

10).

, "

" -

.
,

.
"

" (Charting Commodity Market Price

Behavior, L. Dee Belveal).

.

,

183

8.

. (

.)

1,

.
184

).

(Commodity Research Bureau).

,
185

. (

. . ).

""

"

",

"

" (

- "

")

1983.

"

" (CSI),

"

" (Perpetual Contract CSI Perpetual Contract -

).

"

"

. "

"

).

"

",

20

(20

).

"

26

28
).

(20

"

".
"

"

CSI.

"

"

186

""

"

"

"

" (Perpetual Index).

"

"

"

"

CRB (CRB look-alike index).

CRB (CRB Futures Index),

"

"

,
,

"

"

--

CSI

: 1)

, 2)

,
,

"

"

187

)

,

'

"

"

, "
"

188

(
. 8.7).

35.00 56.00)

.
. 8.1

CRB.

.
,

50%

(.
8.8 8.11
),

. 8.5 8.12).

.
(
. 8.10)

"

",

1964 1972
.

CRB (
. 8.2)

189

20

,
,

"

" "
"

Standard & Poor's 500.

(

).

CRB
190

(Commodity
Research Bureau Futures Price Index),

27

CRB

CRB

. (

.)

, 1970-

),

CRB

(1980

),

CRB

CRB

20

CRB

).

. 8.1,

CRB

20

1970-

1980-?

191

1970-
,

1970-

1980-

1980

1980

. 8.12

1980
,

1974

1975-1977
,

192

1-7.

.
,

,
10-30-

^ ,

- J

.
,

(. 8.5 8.6).

80%

,
95%
,

20

193

. 8.1 CRB

194

. 8.2 .
. ,
, 1982 .

195

. 8.3 .
,

.
.

, .

196

. 8.4 CRB.
. ,
. ,
, .
.

197

. 8. 5 , 1980 ,
1974. .
. 8.6 ,
$1.00, 60. 1977 1980
.

198

. 8. /,
3556.
"" 1979 , 20.

. 8. 8

199

. 8.9
,
, .
.8.10

200

. 8. 11

201


.8.12

202

. 8. f3a ,
"" ( 1.05 70 ).

203

8. 14(8.14)
73-16.
(8.146) ,
.

204

. 3.15
(8.15). (8.156)
, 1982 1983 .

205

. 8.16

.
1979 .

206

. 8.17 S&P 500. ,

, . 1983-84 ,
, 1982-83 .
,

1984 150.

1984

163. .

.
,
,

- ,

207

9.

,-

10 (

). "

"

(
. .

),

"

"

10 (

).

208

,
,

"

"),
,

("
")

,

-' .

(
. . 9.1 ).

209

.9.1

.
,
,

""

,

.
,
- .

. 9.16
.

. (
)

,
, .
,

,
.

, -
.

(price band)
.

.
210

. 9.2a
(
) -

(). ,
-(

(
).

).

- 10%,

20%.

211

. 9.26
: -

(
) -(). -

,

.

"

"

(55

: 10+9+8. . .+1)

.
-

. ,

, -

.
212

(
,

"
")

""
.
"" "
"

"

"
.

(
.
. 9.3).

),

),

"

"

.
"

"

.
,

.
213

"

".

(,

),

.
,

. 9. 10-40-
. ,

().

().
. 9.36 , 40-

()

10-

214

.
1.

.
2.

"
"

10

50

(, 5

),

1% (
3

).

.

-

.
3.

"

"
.

--

.
215

).

.
4.

"

",

, ,

.
5.

"

" (percentage envelopes)

"

"
(volatility bands)

(
. .
9.4 ).

).

. 9.4
. 1,5

. ,
1, 5 %

.
. 9.46

.
,

216


,
.

.
6.

-
(high-low band)

-,

(
.
. 9.5 ).

),

. ,

217

).

,
,

. 9.5
-.

, .

, , ,
.
. 9.56 -
,

218

(
.

. 9.6
-
).
1.

"

".

.
,

-
-

. 9.
.

,
,
,
.

(. . 9.5).

219

. 9. 66 ,

. ,
,
,
,
.
..
-
.

.
.
,
.

2.

220

-,

"

" (How to Build a Fortune in Commodities, R.C. Alien),

1972
.

, 1974

"

-,

" (How to Use

the 4-Day, 9-Day and 18-Day Moving Averages to Earn Larger Profits from Commodities).

-,

-,

-,

-,

"

"

.
,

,
-

,
-

(
.
. 9.7
).

221

. 9.
-

,
.
, , ,

.
.

, ,
,

.
,

222

. 9.7
-, -

.
, , - .
. 9.76 . ,
()

223

)
,

(
.
. 9.7
).

. 1978 1982

"

" .

"

".

1978

"
-

". 1970 1976

(
.

.
9.1-9.3).

(
.

. 9.4)

:
1.

224

: "

. (

,
.60).
2.

.
3.

(
.
.

).
4.

), -

(
.

. 9.4).

9.1

9.2
-

225

9.3

9.4
- ,
-,

226

. 9.4

. , ,

1970 1976 ,

(
1970 1976
),

1979
,

. (

"

" Computerized Trading Techniques, Men-ill Lynch Commodity Division, February,

1979).

"

",

. 9.5

("

- 1982
").

1981

227

9.5

-

-

-

3,49
117,482
-7,790
160
68
92

GNMA

( 11)

14,47
13,47
4,21
22,50
14,33
4,40
17,43
8,48
14,40
4,28
18,50
6, 50
6,21
23,44
20,45
6,50

160,226
83,565
57,430
324,719
254,744
78,631
94,476
482,769
-4,721
120,899
52,888
5,022
113,178
8,378
393,390
172,454

-8,620
-3,890
-13,560
-7,910
-6,112
-3,909
-12,742
-7,932
-413
-4,367
-8,710
-10,054
-10,410
-17,350
-18,610
-7,467

303
258
286
371
473
169
278
334
88
131
409
368
936
436
530
148

128
114
124
176
250
78
126
184
6
74
182
127
385
132
247
66

175
144
167
195
22
91
152
152
82
57
227
241
551
304
283
82

22,47
13,49
7,29
6, 50
6,18

187,264
127,399
386,557
475,442
74,933

-8.805
-6,573
-21,728
-13,399
-21,423

484
527
1213
500
535

217
206
478
181
200

267
321
735
319
335

25,50

184,487

-10,066

147

81

66

11,47

169,640

-5,282

358

140

218

228

.
"
"

.
,

"

" (Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analyst, A. Sklarew).

229

.
,

(
.
. 9.8 ).

14

230

. 9. 8

.
,

2.
,

,
-

-,

-,

2.

231

. 9.86

, ,
.

"

",

- "

".

-13,21, 34, 55

.
"21",

'

),

13 (
.
. 9.9
-
).

232

(
.
. 9.10).

. 9.9
,

. , -

. ,

-
.

(
), ,
(),

233

.9.9-, -

, .

() (
), . ,

().
,

.
.9.9-
(
). ,
,
.

,
. ,

, - ()

234

..-
, ,
, , .

,
,

.

,

. () .

.
,

. 9.10
-

. ,

2.30
1980

235

-,

-,

-,

).

,
?

.


,

,
,

10

(Moving Average Convergence/

Divergence Trading Method MACDTM).

10.
236

OBV).

(
.

. 9.11 , 9.12)

.
.9.11

,
.
,

237

.9.116
(), ().
-

OBV.

""

),

. 9.12a

/(). -

238

. 9.126

,
RSI.

"

".
1970

"

" (Trader's Notebook).

"

".

"

".

. ( 1983

. -

"

",

).
"

"

:
1.

.
2.

-
-

239

.
"

"

: "

".

,
,

,
"

"

"

"

,
"

"

.
"

"

"

".

"

"(

)"

.
"
"

"

"

1979

240

"

",

"

"

"

",

.
"

"

2.

241

. 9.13 "".
,
,

,
.

,

. ,

-,

-,

,
,

2.

,
,

242

. 9.14 ,

. , , .
, ,
.

.
,
(74 ),

243

.9.15 ,

.
360
.

()

. -

, (320 )

. 9.16

, "" (
,
).

244

,
-.

. ,
"" . ""

. "",
,

.

"

"

.
"

" -

. (.
. 9.13 - 9.16.)

.
"

"

(Technical Analysis in Commodities)

- "

" "

", -

"

" (Technical Trading
Systems for Commodities and Stocks, C. Patel).

245

10.

"

"

"
".

,
,

"

".

(overbought)

(oversold)
.

(divergence)

"

"

.
,

246


. ,

"

"

,
,

0 100 - 1 + 1 -

).
1.

.
2.

.
3.

(momentum).

.
247

).

:
= V - Vx

V -

, Vx -

(
.
.

),

(
.
.

),

. . 1

.
.

248

. 10.16
,
,

, - .

. (.
. 10. la.)

. (.
. 10.16.)

(
.
.

.)

,
,

249

)
,

. (.

. 10.210.26.)

. 10. 2

,
.

250

.
,

. 10.26

(
).

-
. (

).

+1 -1.

.
,

10 (

).

+1
-1,

251

"

"
.

,
95 %

).

(Commodity Channel Index) .

. .

(
+100 (
) - 100
(
).

,
.
1

252

. 10.36
CCI.


.

CCI

CCI

,
,
,

. (.
. .
.)

"

"

"

".

.
. 10.4ROC .

. ,

100.
. 10.46
(
)
ROC ().
-
,

253

(rate of change - ROC)

ROC

= 100 (V/Vx)
V -

Vx

100

. (.
.10.4.)

(
..

),

100,

.
,

:
254

1.

.
2.

"

" ""
).

255

. 10. 6
, . 10. 5,

() 8
, (
) - 48.
. 10.66

, - . ,

256

. 10. 5

,
-
.
. 10.56

, - .
.

. 10.7-

.
- ,

. .

257

. 10.76

(- )
. ,

.
.

3.

.
(.
. 10.5.)

,
,

(
.
.

. (. . 10.6.)

"

" -

.
,

"

"

"",

"

"

, "

"

"

" "
"

,
,

258

.
(.
. 10.7.)

.
.

.
1.

. 10. 8
CRS,

(CRB),

. CRS

CRS

"

"

(Current Relative Strength - CRS),

(CRB).

CRS

259

"

"

CRS

.
2.

.
,

(RSI)

0 100.

70
30

70 30

. (.
. 10.9.)

70,

30.

70

30

260

. 10 9, ,
RSI,

(70 30). 70

, 30
- .
. 10.96
RSI 70 30.

3.

.
,

.
,

.
,

RSI

70

30,

70

30

. (. . ..)

261

. 10. 10, .

(30). ()

(), , , ,
.
,

. ,

.

262

. 10. 10,

, .

. (
. 10.106.)

RSI.

(RSI)

(Relative Strength Index)

"

"
(New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, Welles Wilder).

).

),

RSI

0 100.

"

"

. "

"

.
,

S&P 500

.
263

,
,

CRB.

"

"

,
RSI

(RSI)

RS,

14.

14.

(RS),

RSI

.
,

. (.
. 10. .)

264

. 10.11a

RSI ()

S&P 500. , ,

, 70 30. ,

.
. . 116

RSI, -

, 10. .
, .

70
30. ,

, -
.

265

RSI

.
,

8,

9.

RSI

RSI

0 100.

70
30,

, "

"

- 80 20.

,
80

, 20

70
30,

"'

" (failure
swing). "

"

(
70)

.
"

"

(
30)

. (.

. 10.12.)

RSI

70 30 -

"

".

RSI

(
.
. 10.1 ).

266

. 10. 12a "" . RSI

30
(),

(
), ""

, .
.
. 10.126 "" ,

.
:

(70),
(
) , ,
(
).

RSI

"

-
"

(70
267

30).

, -

.
,

(
,

).

),

"

"

, ,

-
-
,

.
e
opo
o o
e
p

. 10.13
RSI .

268

. 10.136
.

RSI

70 30

70 30.

30

30,

70

70 30

. (.
. 10.14.)

(K%D)

(Stochastic Process Stochas-tics)

"

, .",

: %%D.

,
269

:
%= 100 [ (- L5) / (5 - L5)],

, L5 -

(0-100%)

70,

30,

. 10.14

S&P 500.
. 10.146 70
, 30

.
,
"
". ,
.

270

(D%) -

%.

D%

:
%D = 100 (H3/L3),

(- L5), L3 -

(5 - L5).

0 100.

"

"

D -
.

(70 30),

RSI.

10 15
85 90

70

30

D -

D.
,

(right-sided crossover)

.
271

. 10.15
.
,
"" %D,

.
70 30

-
. , RSI.

, %
%D
,
.
,
.
. 10.156
.
,

. 1.
(30). 2.
. 3. , ,

D.

272

. (.
. 10.15.)

D.

. (.

. 10.16.)

. 10.16

,
.

273

. 10.166 ()

S&P 500.

(30)

(70).

"

"

.
"
"

"

"

D.
"

"
D,

"

"
.

, "

"

D (

D).

. (.
. 10.17.)

.
"

"

1984

"

". .

"

"
"

" (Trading Strategies),

1984
.

274

. 10.17.
. 10.176
.
-
. ;

,
.

%R

%R
275

20,

80.

%R.

. (.
. 10.18

.)

. 10.18%R . ,
.
20 80.

,
.

276

. 10.186

%R

"

"

1/2

-,

-,

.
,

RSI

-,

RSI,

,
1/4 1/2

14.

ROC,

RSI

- ,

_
6

.

"

"
~
,

'

"

),

).

,
277

"

"

"
",

. (

13

.)

,
,

-
(MACDTM)

"

" (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Trading Method - MACDTM),

.
.

),
278

).

. (.
. 10.19.)

. 10.19MACDTM.

,
, ,
.

.
. .

, MACDTM

. ,
,

279

. 10.196

(VA)

(OBV)

(VA).

.
-

"

".

VA

. (.

. 10.20
.)

280

. 10.20a

.
. 10.206

VA,

7. VA, . -

VA ,

. ,
VA

281

""

"

, ."

"

".

""

"

" (Principle of Contrary Opinion).

"

",
,

, ,

.
"

",

.
X.
,

"

",

1954

"

" (The Art of Contrary Thinking, Humphrey B.

Neill).

, .

"

",

"

"
(Bullish Consensus numbers),

"

"

"

"

) "
"

"

" (Contrary Opinion, How to

Use It for Profit in Trading Commodity Futures, R. Earl Hadady).

"

" (Consensus Index of Bullish Market Opinion),

"

".

75% 25%.
282

"

",

"

",

0 100.

"

"

80%,

80%

20%

).

30% (

30%

70% -
),

"

"

.
"

"

"

",

"

"

"

"

'

"

"

"

",

80% 90%

"

".

"" ""

"

"

283

"

",

.
80%

20%

,
(

).

"

"

80%

"

" -

. ,
,

"

"

"

"

55%.

5%

90%, - 20%.

"

"

90% 20%.

80% 30%

"

" -

5%-

"

".

"

"

.
,

"

"

.
,

"

",

50%

.
"

"

.
284

(20%),
-

).

"

"

"

",

5%-

"

"

"

"

"

"

50%

(
80%)

50%,

(20%),

50%,

50%

"

"

"

"

285

286

11.

.
, ,

-
,

- "
-

"

1933

"

",

"

",

"
-

" 20 1901

"

"

"

" (tape reading).

"

"

1886
. 1933

"

"

, ,

1898

"

"

1904

: "

".
,

1881

.
"

"

1933

- "

".

.
1896

"-

"

,
"
-
"

"
-
".
"
"

"
").

"
-

",

. ,

"

",

, "

"

"
-
".

..

287

"

",

"

" -

.
-

^-

"

" (three-point reversal method),

"

",

. ,

,
-

288

, ,

),

.
-

"

" -

,

-

,
-

.
,

. 11.1
S&P 500

289


. 11.1 11.2

S&P 500

.
-

,
-
-
.

"

" "
"

11.2.

"

"

"

",

"

"

,

,

,
-

. 11.3 11.4

(
. 11.2- 11.4)

(1.00).
. 11.2

(
.
.

. 11. 2. -

S&P 500
.
1.00,

290

. 11.3

. 11.2

. 11.4

. 11.2 11.3

. 11.2

. 11.3

),

47 26.
. 11.4

14.
291

--

).

).

.
-

.
1978

"

"

28

43
.

).

, 1978

"

" -

"

",

"

",

292

.
,

, ,

.
,

.
5/29
8515
8510
8508
8520
8535
8532
8546
8557
8550
8535
8566

8525
8515
8515
8523
8545
8538
8563
8560
8553
8550
8575

8510
8506
8510
8520
8540
8535
8553
8552
8545
8546
8570

8515
8510
8525
8523
8544
8543
8565
8555
8555
8555
8580

8510
8506
8520
8517
8540
8540
8560
8546
8540
8550
8570

8515
8510
8525
8525
8545
8543
8563
8550
8548
8558
8580

8505
8500
8522
8520
8535
8539
8560
8545
8542
8555
8575

8515
8514
8525
8528
8544
8549
8563
8550
8545
8565
8585

8512
8510
8520
8525
8540
8545
8560
8545
8540
8560
8577

8515
8517
8525
8539
8545
8550
8563
8550
8545
8570
8585

8510
8510
8522
8535
8535
8547
8560
8540
8537
8565

8516
8519
8525
8538
8538
8554
8563
8560
8540
8570

. 11.5.

8500

.
-
,

5.

- "

" "" -

"" "5".

293

("" "5")

.
,

"

" "".

. 11.5
-

,
.

. -

. , ,

8515.

- 8525,

8515 8525.

-8510.

8510.

, -

.
294

- 8515,

,
,

(,

),

8532 (

).

. ,

.
. 11.6

"
",

.
.
11.6

"
".

, ,

295

. 11. 6
, .
, ,
,

.
,
-
,

(),

. ,

-.

. ,

.
4/29
4875
5/2
4870
5/3
4870
5/4
4885
5/5
4905
5/6
4885
5/9
4950
5/10
4940
5/11
4935
4965 4960 4970

4880
4860
4865
4880
4900
4900
4925
4915
4950

4860
4865
4870
4890
4905
4890
4930
4920
4945

4865
4855
4860
4885
4900
4930
4925
4905
4950

4850
4860
4865
4890
4905
4920
4930
4925
4935

4860
4855
4860
4875

4855
4860 4855 4860 4855 4865 4855
4870 4865

4930
4925
4920
4940

4925
4935
4930
4935

4930
4925
4925
4945

4925
4930 4925 4935 4930 4940 4935
4935 4930 4940 4935 4940
4940 4965 4960 4965 4955 4960 4955

. 11.7

.
296

1.

4875.

- 4880 -

2.

- 4860.

4860.

3.

- 4865.

).

- 4850,

,
;

4850.

4.

- 4860.

4860.

5.

- 4855.

4855.

. 11.7-
-
.
,
- .

.
-

.
(
).

297

6.

, -4870.

-.

4870.

, .

,
,

"

"

. 11.76

.

. 11.7

: -,

.
298

(gaps)

.
,

: "
"

, ""

, 1985).

(congestion areas).

.
,

"

"

.

-

"

"

("

" "")

,
,

).

,
,

"

"

299

,
"

"

"

" "
"

"
".

()

. (.

. 11.8.)

. 11.8
, . ,
.

. ,

,
,

300

.
,
,

.
,

-
,

. . 11.9

,
,
,

, "

",
V-

V-

, "
".

"
" (fulcrum).

,
"
"

"
"

"

" "

".

(catapult)

. V-

,
-

. 11.9

"

301

. 11.9 .

. 11.9

,
302

),

).

.

-

. 11.5-11.8

).

(protective stops)

),

303

"
".

.
,

), -

.
,

-
-

,
1978

"

"

"--

".

. (.

. 11.10.)

"

'
.",

"

" "

".

),

. (.
. 11.11.)
304

"

".

. (.
. 11.12-11.14.)

. 11.10 -, "".
, "
" ""

305


- ,

. 11. If
-

,
"
''. - ,

(
).

306

. 11.12

().

,
.

. -

(
- 1/4 ).

.
.

307

. 11.13,

.
.
.
- (

- ),

308

. 11.14(- 1/5
) -

-. ,

. -
(
- 1/10 ) - .

.
-

309

12.

1947
.

"

" (Stock Market Timing, A.W. Cohen),

"

"

: "
-

"

" (The Chartcraft

Method of Point and Figure Trading).

: "

" (How To Use The Three-Point Reversal Method Of

Point And Figure Stock Market Trading).

^
-

"

",

. -
,

"

"

"

" "",

. (. . 12.1.)

),

310

311

. 12.1

312

.
,

-
.

,
,

.
,

12.2

.
-

"

" (Profit and Profitability, R.E. Davis),

1965

,
1914 1964
,
1100

- 1954 1964
,

.
80%

(
,

25%.

313

. 12.2 -.

(56,9%)

-2

S-2
(56,4%) -

-3 -

(87,9%).

S-3 -

(93,5%).

314

2,

S-1 S-8,

1,

- -1 -2

-2

-1

.
-1

-2

-2 -

,
-1.

-3 -

.
,

(-4) -

,
-3,

(-5)

-6 -

).
-7 -

(-8) -

.
S-1 - S-8

.
,

.
-

, ,

, ,

315

-
,

. (.
. 12.3 12.4.)

316

317

318

-7,

).

.
,

1<,

.
,

"

"

,
,

. -
,

319

10.

(31
).

(10) 3 (3

30

320

(
.
. 12.5). -
,

,
.

3 (
.
.

),

.
1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

-
.
5.

.
6.

;
.

),

"
"

.
321

""

).

"

" (poles).

,

.

.
1.
-

.
2.

.
3.
-

.
4.

.
5.

.
322

-
1970

1965
.
.

"

".

. 1970

. ,

"
-

" (Point and Figure Trading, A Computer Evaluation).

I960 1969
.

.
.

"

" (Point and Figure Commodity Trading Techniques),

1975

135
(

17 1974

28
1974

(
.
.

41% 66%,

-
100% 199%.

. (.
. 12.6 -
.)

323

"

".

"

" (
.

. 12.7).

: "

"
"

" (
.
. 12.6).

)
203
205
503
402
203
405
203
406
53
28
203
104
23
1,55

. 12. 6() (
) .
,

-
.

324

"

".

"

".

: "

",

).

"

"

(
.
. 11.2-4,
. 11).

325

. 12.6-

--

.
"

" (Study Helps in Point and Figure Technique, A. Wheelan).

"

",

"

". ,

"

" (The Three-Point

Reversal Method of Point and Figure Stock Market Trading).

"

".

326

. 12.7

327

,
-

(RSI),

(OBV)

.
,

328

13.

1938

"" (The Wave

Principle).

"

"

.
.(1871-1948),

. 1927

. ,

. 1934

"

",

, ,

"

".

1938

"
".

"

".

1939

. 1946

"

": "

" (Nature's Law The Secret of the

Universe).

,
.
,

1953

"

".

1967
. I960

"

" (Elliott Wave Principle - Critical Appraisal),

329

. 1967

, 1970

"
"

"

".

1978

"

" (Elliott Wave Principle, A. J. Frost and R. Prechter),

. 1980

"

",

.
.

, -

).

.
,

"

".

).

.
330

.
,
,

.
. 13.1

(1, 3, 5)

2 4

1 3.

"
", "" "
".

.
,

),
"

",

. 13.1 .

. ^

. 13.2.

- (1)(2)

331

11

- (J)

(
),

. 13.2,

(
.

. 13.3).

1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144,

(. 13.1-13.3),

),

,
(1), (3) (5) (
. 13.2)

,
(l) -

(2) (4)

(
), (), (
);

(2) (

).

- (
) (
) -

(2). (
),

(2).

. 13.2.

332

).

.
,

(
--
)

, -

,
,

"

"

"
".

X.

"

",

-
,

333

:
"

".

(wave personalities).

"

"

2)

"

"

1.

,
"

"

2.

1,

2.

,
,

"

".

3.

).

(
.

). 3

- ^

4 .

2,

(
.

"

- \

"

).
^_

-i-

'

-j

5.

, OBV 334

.-

. ,

,
(

).

"

"

(
.

"

".

,
1, 3
5

. 13.4

1.

5.

(
.
.

),

3,
5

1.

1 3

57.

335


. 13.4.

"

"

.
. 13.5

"

"

336

. 13.5 "" .

"

"

"

" (failures).
. 13.6 13.7

.

,

6,

.
. 13.8 13.9

"

".

,
5

3.

3.

"

"

337

. 13. 6

(
).
. 13. 7

(
).

,
,

.
,

(zigzags),

(Hats),

(double and triple

threes).

. 13. 8 "" . . 13.9 ""

.

338

"

"

: 5-3-5.

. 13.10 13.11

.
.
13.12 13.13

. ,

"

".

. 13.14.

5-3-5,

--
.

3-3-5.

(
.

. 13.16 13.18)

.
. 13.15 - 13.18

. 13.10
(5-3-5).

. 13.11

(5-3-5).

339

. 13.12
(5-3-5). . 13.13
(5-3-5)

. 13.14
.

. 13.19 - 13.22.

. 13.19 13.20)

,
,

. 13.15

(3-3-5).
. 13.16

(3-3-5).

340

. 13.17

(3-3-5).
. 13.18

(3-3-5).

.13.19 ""

(3-3-5).
. 13.20 "" -(3-3-5).

.13.21""

(3-3-5).
.13.22""

(3-3-5).

341

. 13.23 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.24 "
" ""
(3-3-5).

. 13.25 "
" ""
(3-3-5).
. 13.26 "
" ""
(3-3-5).

342

. 13. 27 "" (3-3-5).

. 13.23 - 13.26.

"

" (running)

"

"

. 13.27.

,

b

1,

,
,

b,

--
).

343

,
,

6.
. 13.28

).

"

"

).

344

. 13.28

(
).

(
.
. 13.29, 13.30).

(
. 13.29)

--
. . 13.30

--,

).

-
-

"

" ,
-

345

. 13.29 . . 13.30 .

, ,

.
,

--,
4,

-
,

,

2

,
4

-
. 13.31.

. 13. 31 .

4.
,

1 2.

1,

13.32.

346

. 13. 32 "" ""

.

3,

2
(
.
. 13.32).

3 (.
. 13.33).
3

(
. .

),

1.

347

. 13.33

- 4

"

" ,

"

",

(,
348

"

".

"Liber Abaci" (

: "

").

,
,

. "Libel
Abaci"

:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 (

).

.
1.

: 3+5=8, 5+8=13

.
2.

0,618
(

).

: 1/1=1.00; 1/2=0,50; 2/3=0,67; 3/5=0,60; 5/8=0,625;

8/13:=0,615; 13/21=0,619

0,618,

: 1,00; 0,50; 0,67.

.
3.

1,618 (

0,618).
:
13/8=1,625; 21/13=1,615; 34/21=1,619.

0,618 1,618.
4.

0,382,

- 2,618).

: 13/34=0,382; 34/13=2,615.

,
,

.

,

1,618 0,618

"

" "

".

"

"

"

"

-
-.

.
-

, 618

).

349

"

", "

" "

",

"

"

"

",

.
,

).

(. 13.1 13.3),

.
,

,
3 5

:
1.

,
1 3

1 5.
2.

, 1 1,618

2,

.
3.

1
3,236 (2 1,618).

350

1.

.
4.

1 3

,
5,

. -

3,

1, 618.

4.
5.

5-3-5)

.
6.

, 0, 618
,

.
7.

3-3-5,

1,618
.
8.

0,618.

61,8% (

62%), 38% 50%.

33%, 50%
67%

.
,

38%.

62%.

0,618,

: 1/1
(100%), 1/2 (50%), 2/3 (67%).

50-

2/3

).

(100%)

351

13, 21, 34, 55 89-

.
,

1,618

3,
,

- 55.

,
,

"

"

,
3,

-
5.

1,

352

).

"

".

.
,

1980 1981

.
1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

(5-3-5)

(3-3-5).
5.

).

.
6.

.
7.

.
8.

.
9.

.
10.

62%, 50% 38%.

353

11.

.
12.

.
13. 4

1 (

).
14.

):

.
15.

.
16.

.
17.

' '

"

.
"
"

"

",

:
,

,
,

.
,

"

"

"

354

"

").

. 13.1-13.33

"

"

"

",

, "

"

"

.
(Understanding Fibonacci Numbers, E.
Dobson),

"

" (Commodity Trading Systems and Methods, P. Kaufman).

,

.
"

" (Who is R. N. Elliott and Why is He Making Waves?)

"

1983
).

. 13.34-13.41.

(
. 13.42 - 13.49)

, -
,

"

",

(fan lines),

(arcs)

(time zones).

.
,

("

"
).

5, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233

1, 2 3,

355

. 13.34 . 5
.

. 13. 35
. 4

1. , , 5

.
2 4.

356

. 13. 36
()

,
.
(
) -
.

. 1984

357

. 13. 37 .
. 4
,
.
,

4.

358

. 13. 38
.

,
1983

14
.
, 3
,
,
. , ,
,
.
4
.

. 13. 39
,

.
(-) ().
.
. 13. 40 .
(
!) 38%

--,
.

359

. 13. 41
,

--. .
-50%

. ,
, ,
.

4).

38%, 50% 62%

38%, 50% 62%

"

" (

. 13.42 - 13.49

360

).

. 13. 42 .

,
38%, 50% 62%.

,

. 13. 43 .

- , 38%, 50%, 62%-

.
. ,

, .
.

361

. 13.46 ,
,
1984 ,

.
, ""

.
. 13. 47 .

. ,
.
. 13. 44

.
.
. 13. 45

.

.
, ,

362

, , ,

.

.

363

. 13.48
,

.
. 13.49

,
,
. ,

, .
,
. ,
(

) .

364

14.

,
,

,
,

,
,

"

"

.
"

",

.
365

"

".

6.47,

- 16.35.

4.36,
- 17.03.

22

,
-8

,
?

. -
,

. -

, t

. ,

"
:

" (Cycles: The

Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events, E.Dewey and O. Mandino).

1415 1930

.,

9,6

22,20

1527

11,11

- 18,33

- 9, 2
(
. . 14.1 14.2).

. -
,

. 188

9,

.
:

366

.
. 14. 3

18,2

. 14.1
22,2 .

,
,

. ""
,

- .

367

. 14. 2
22,2 .
1982 .
""
,

- .

1940

"

",

. 14. 3 ,
18, 2 .

1970
.

"

" (The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Tinning, J. M. Hurst).

368

"

"

. 14. 4
. ,

,
-
, .

.
,

,
.
,

.
(
. 14. 4)

(trough),

(crest).

(
. . 14. 5)

369

(
.

. 14. 6)

.
(
.
. 14. 7)

.
,

),

. 14. 5 .
( -5
+5 ).
.

. 14. 6 . ,

. ,

370

,
, , - ,
. ,

.
. 14. 7

,
, ,

. 14. 8

.
,

, "2".

"

",

9,

, "

",

,
"

"

.
371

. 14. 8 .
,

372

. 14. 9
.

.
(
.
. 14. 9)

. ,

,
373

"

".

18
9
54
18
9

77.94
38.97
19.48
9.74
4.97

68.2
34.1
17.0
8.5
4.3

. 14. 10
.

(
.
. 14. 106)

3, 2.

,
,

"".

40, 20, 10 5
. ,

-,

-,

-,

"

"

.
374

18
9
54
18
40
20
80
40
20
10
5

. 14. 106 .

.
. 14.11

(
.
. 14. 12),
,

"

".

. V-

"

"

375

. ,

376

. 14. 12
. . 14. 126 .
. 14. 11

(
.
. 14. 13).

(long-term)
(

),

(seasonal)

),

(primary),

(intermediate)

),

(trading)
(

).

(1/2 primary cycle).

377

. (

"

", "

", "

" "

"

).

. 14. 13 .

(Kondra-tieff cycle). ,

,
,
,

1789

. . (
.

. 14. 14).

).
,

378

"

." (The Long Wave Cycle),

1984
.

).

379

380

(
.
. 14.
13).

),

CRB (
. . 14. 15).

CRB

CRB,

CRB

. ,

CRB

1950-

381

. 14. 15 CRB
.

. .

20

- 10 5.

-,

-,

CRB,

,

,
, -

382

"

",

,
"

"

,
,

),

,|

.
_

^
^"1

^^

'^-''

.
,

(
.
. 14.16 14.17).

),

),

"

"
,

"
" "

"

383

.
,

(
.
. 14.18
-
).

. -
,

.
,

50%
66%

),

384

. 14. 16 :
(. ),

(. ),

(. ). ,

.
, - .

, ,

385

. 14. 17
,
.
1950 1968 ,
1968
1975

1975
.

)
(
)

,
-

,
"

" "

"

HAL,

. 14. 18.
1982
,
,

1984 .

.
. 14. 186 . "",

HAL Market
Cycles,

386

.
,

.
,

. 14. 18() , ,

.
. 14. 18
.

387

.
,

"

"(Ehrlich Cycle
Finder),

,
-

(
.

. 14. 19
-
).
,

"

"

"

" (Cycle Finder),

, "

"

-
-

"

"

FFT (Fast Fourier Transform),

"

", .

(MEM). (

).

(detrending).

388

. 14. 19a
"
",
"".
,

.
. 14. )9"" , , .
,

,
. ,
18 - 36,
.

389

. 14. 19"
"

(
)

. ,
,
"",
.
. 14. 19
, .
,
"" .
- ,

"".

,
.

390

. 14. 20

S&P.
. 14. 20.

,
.
,

391

. 14. 20
S&P

.
,

. "
"

.
. 14. 20,

. (

.)

: ,

,
392

(
.
. 14. 20
-
).

),

"

".

70%

, 75%

).

.
,

(
.
. 14.21 ).

80%,

.
393

65%

14 21a .
,
-
-.

394

. 14. 21

. -
,

.
-
,

, -

.
,

(time windows)

(timing bands),

"

"

,
395

(
Commodity Advisors) .

(HAL Market Cycles).

. -
,

"

" (The Handbook of Commodity Cycles: A Window

on Time, J. Bernstein)

, -

).

).

HAL Market Cycles

).

,
70%

"

HAL ",

HAL

(HAL Cyclic Analyst's Kit Manual).

(midcycle pause price objective) (

"

",

6),

(,

),

,
-
,

, -

396

. 14. 22

.
,

.
,

,

,

.

),

4 (
. . 14. 22).

Hal,

.
(The Hal Blue Book, W.J. Bressert and J.H. Jones),

(momentum).

.
"

",

1973
.

%R

(.

10).

,

, "

"

397

28

-
,

Hal

),

).
,

: 20, 10 5.

(
.

. 14. 23).

. 14. 23

S&P 500.
. 14. 236
HAL.

: ,

.
.

, .

398

.
"

"

.
,

Hal

%R

".

"

"

..

399

"

,
,

.
,

"

" (

"

" (How
to Profit From Seasonal Commodity Spreads),

1983
.

"

".

(SIRE),

: ,

(
Commodity Advisors),
- .

(HAL Market Cycles).

,

400

15.

,
,

,
,

.
"

"

"

",

.
401

,
,

,
,

"

".

"

"

"

"

"

"

,
,

"

"

),

(Artificial Intelligence),

(Pattern Recognition).

""

"

"

IBM-PC, XT, AT

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402

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,

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,

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1" (
.
. 15.1).

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*.

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F1 - "

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403

4.
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.
F3 - "
" (Files).

.
F4 - "
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(
)

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F5 - "

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F6 - "

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"zooming in",

,
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1,

IBM.

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. (.

.)

.
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. 15.2 2.

404

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1"),

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.
,

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F7 - "
" (Mode)

.
. 15.3 3.

"

"

"

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F6

(
3

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.
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(
.

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14).
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:
,

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",

405

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.

13) "
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. 15.4 4.

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,
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. 15.13
; 15.14).

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406

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4 (

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E - "

VAO" (Volume Accumulation Oscillator)

),

OBV, VA VAO (

7).

"N",

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:
- "

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- "

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- "

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).

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"

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9).

.

,

-
,

RSI

"Enter".

(Advance-Decline),

TRIN

407

CCI (Commodity Channel Index)

(Demand Index)

).

(Detrend)

HAL

14,

(MACD),

),

),

(ROC),

(RSI),

(K%D),

(%R)

10,

CSI (Commodity Selection Index),

(swing index),

. : "
"

"

" (New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems),

1978

"

":

CSI, RSI

. 15.5

. SAR,

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,
,

408

. 15. 6

,
.

. 15. 7

S&P
500. ,

.
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,

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. 15. 8 ,

- .

409

(SAR)

(SAR)

"SAR" -

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: "

").

). "

"

(trailing stops), -

(
.

. 15.5-15.8).

SAR)

).

SAR

SAR

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".
,

.
,

(
.
. 15.5, 15.6).

S&P 500

(
.

. 15.7 15.8)

,
"

"

S&P 500 (
.
. 15.7)

410

30%

).

70%

"

" (DMI)

"

" (Directional Movement Index)

(
.
. 15.9).

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" (
.
.

).

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"

100.

ADXR,

.
. 15. 9

ADXR

S&P 500

(
.

).

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S&P 500 (

ADXR 10).

. 15.9
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.

ADRX

20 (

S&P),
, . ADRX (

) .

,
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411

. 15.10

DMI: +DI () -D1 (

). +DI

-DI,

-DI, , .
(

) "" .

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.
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S&P 500.

"

",

ADXR

0 100 ,

.
,

"

"

- "

"

).

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412

. 15.

,
""

.
. 15. 116 DMI ()

.
DMI

"" . ADXR (
)
,

DMI

- +DI -DI.

(
.
.

(
.
.

DMI

. 15.10:

- +DI ,

- -DI.

+DI

-DI,

, -
.

"

"

(
.
. 15.

).

DMI (

DMI

DMI,

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.

(. . 15.116)

ADXR

"

"

),

),

413

ADXR

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"

ADXR

CSI.

CSI (Commodity Selection Index)

"

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-,

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True Range - ATR),

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,
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"

",

).

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,

OBV

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:
CCI,

,
MACD,

%R

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HAL;

HAL,

, "

",

);
414

: "

"

: RSI, CSI, DMI,

-
,

-
,

"

"

.
(.
. 15.12 - 15.14.)

),

"

" (Profitability
Editor)

"

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415

. 15. 12
.

.
. 15.126 "
"

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(

40%
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416

. 15.13
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(Median Line), "" "" ("MLR").

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. ,
, ,

417

. 15.14
-(Equivolume chart) .

. ,
.

). ,
.
. 15. 14. , . ,
":

" (Volume Cycles in the Stock Market: Market Timing Through

Equivolume Charting, R.W. Arms).

,
418

,
,

.
1980

.
-

. -

, -

"

"

.
,
,

1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

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5.

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6.

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7.

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419

.
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,

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EFTA (Electronic Futures Trend

Analyzer) -

),

CRB Futures Chart Service.

EFTA

. 15.15.

("

"),

420

"

",
"

" "

" ("

"
).

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1985

"

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,

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. 15. 15.

421


6 7 ("

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.
,

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200

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.
423

: 0 100%.

70%,

20%

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,

424

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425

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(Technical Trading Systems For Commodities and Stocks, C. Patel).

426

16.

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427

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3.

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428

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1.

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100 000

50 000

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100 000

10000-15
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100 000

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10 000

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5000
429

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40%

430

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290

295

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305

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195

20

195

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175

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431

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,

432

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-,

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,

."

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433

"

ToproBne"(Commodity Trading Advisors)

"

" (Commodity Pool Operators).

"

",

. "

" (Commodity Market Money Management),

.
(F. Gehm),

"

" (The Investor's Guide to Futures Money

Management, M.S. Baratz)

. ,

:
1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

.
5.

.
434

).

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,

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435

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,

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301

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289

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1600

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437

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438

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S&P 500.

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(
36 41),

439

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S&P 500 .

(
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).

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,

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(37).

440

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442

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162.20.

15.15

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(162.50).

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443

. 16.4 - 16.7

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-

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.

11).

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15.

IDA (IntraDay Analyst),

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444


. 16. 5
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445

. 16. 6 "

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.
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446

. 16.7 -
.

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,
(
12.30 -

),

447

.
,

"

" (Market Entry and Exit: Trade

With the Professionals, W.Bressert).

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" (HAL Cyclic Analyst's Kit).

.
1.

.
2.

.
3.

.
4.

.
5.

.
6.

.
7.

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(break-even
448

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.
12.

75 %

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13.

.
14.

.
15.

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16.

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17.

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18.

.
19.

.
20.

: "
,

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21.

449

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,

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CRB?
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6.

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33%-, 50%- 66%-

?
450

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?
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?.
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?
15.

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16.

(
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17.

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19.

?
20.

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)?
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7.

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8.

, -

451

, "

!"
"

!"

,
,

"

"

(Market Technicians Association).

?
,

(Chartered Financial Analysts)?

,
452

1972

).

1985

1985

. (

"

"

).

1984

1978

).

"

"

),

1755

"

".
1985

- Nikkei 225 Nikkei 500.

453

,
,

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"

.
,

,
,

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,
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454

.
,

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455


1.

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,

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Value Line,

S&P 500),

,

,

(
.
. 1.1-1.7.
456

1)

. 1.1. 1.
, , ,

.
, ,

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.

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457

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Value Line S&P 500.

, ,
.

,
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458

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,
.
,
1985
.
. 1. 6. 1.

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459

. 1.7. 1.
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. 1.6).

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).

.
,

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460

,
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(
.
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(. ).
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, .

,
.

.

(ratio analysis)

. .)

.
,

-
.

""

461

CRB,

CRB

CRB

-,

462

"

".

"

" (Commodity Spreads, Techniques and Methods For Spreading Financial Futures, Grains,
Meats, and other Commodities),

.
,

14) "

".

"
"

463


2.

()

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-)

. "

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5%

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300

2 000

400

10 000

(100

100 ).

,
,

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3 000

(30
100 ).

400

,
10 000

3 000

).

7 000

(
,

10 000

).

464

,
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300

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100
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465

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-

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466

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, "
-".

.
,

.
,

-,

-
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"

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,

: "

" .

(Commodity Options: A User's Guide to Speculating and Hedging, T.Mayer),

"

" .

-
.
(Inside the
Commodity Options Markets, J.Labuszewski and J.Sinquefield).

-.

-.

467

-
.

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-

).

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. 2.1.
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.

, , .

468


3.

.
(1878-1955)

. 1976

"

",

. .

"

",

"

" (cardinal square)

"

" (

),

469

. 3.1. 3. "" 12.

(400),
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.

360

360,

30, 90,
120, 180 360

"7".

,
,

(,

100

,
,

,
470

,
-

4,

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,

,
,

: 1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, 7/8, 8/8;

: 1/3,
2/3.

1/3 2/3

,
,

- 33%,
37,5%, 50%, 62,5% 67%

.
,

37,5% 62,5%,

13.

- 33% 67%,

4).

75% 87,5%

- 12,5% 25%.

33% 67%,

45

471

12,

).

(11).

(
-

).

).

2,

11

, 12

1 4

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(.
. 3.2.

3).

2 1

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41.

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472

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.
,
45 ,
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.

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13 31.

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,

473

: 3/8, 4/8 5/8.

45

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"

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63 3/4

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.
. 3.3. 3. ,
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11 .
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,
.
, ,
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,
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474

. 3.4. 3.

. (1 1)
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475

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.

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,

90

. 3.6. 3. (-),

476

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45

. 3.7. 3. ,

1 4

. ,
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:

.

3/8 5/8
(1 1).

,
. (),

(1 1),

.

477

(.
. 3.3-3.7.

3).

.
,

"

",

,
,

- "

" (How to Make Profits in

Commodities) (

1942
,

1951

1976).

("

" "

")

"

",

"

",

"

".
- "

"

. ,

"

" (Trading for Profit With Precision

Timing, D. Vodopich).

11,1221.

.
"

",

"

-
-1",

, "

".

"
' -"

"-

",

) (

"

"

"

"

"

" -

478

.
064145 21.06.1995
.

23.09.96.
70 108 V16

.
.
. 51,8.
1000

763.

125445,

.,
. 134

.
(095) 400-35-40

. 143200,
.

, .
, 93

479