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:

( )
,
21 2014 .,


:
(+ )


: ,


(Schedler 2002, 2006, 2009, 2013)


(Diamond 2002; Levitsky, Way 2010; Howard,
Roessler 2006)
80%

?


( 15 ) (Levitsky, Way 2013;
Hadenius, Teorell 2007; Hale 2013; Geddes 1999)


(Hale 2013; Schedler 2006; Kuntz,
Thompson 2009)


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-
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, ,
,
(, 23)


Credible
commitment

Gandhi 2009, Beaulieu, Hyde 2009, Sottilotta 2013,


commitment

Factors
weight

Individual
Culture

Strong
Postindustrial
predictors values; better
psychological
adjustment
(Keniston 1968)

Socialization

Collective action
experience

Economic status

Higher
Education;
Humanitarian
experience.

1. Previous political
protest experience
2. Minorities are
organized better
(Anderson &
Mendes 2006,
Swader 2012,
Alesina & Le Ferrara
2004);

Unclear linkage
for AR

Community
volunteerism does not
have any clear impact
on political mobilization
(Ball 2005, Hunter and
Brisbin 2000);

Greater
economic
inequality yields
greater political
inequality (Solt
2008)

Literature on
differential
participation
Weak
Industrial values; Family and
predictors lonely crowd
children (Riesman 1950)
negative /
absent link


:
2013: ,
-
, , ., 2013


2013
..
, 2013:


, ( )


800+ 20112012 . ( )
(S&S, 2013)

77.1

75.8

72.3

72.9

67.8

59.7

64.3

Biographical Characteristics of AntiGovernment Protest Stalwarts and


Casuals
Variable
Place of Residence

Sector of Work

Employment
Gender

Category

Stalwarts

Casuals

Moscow
Moscow Oblast
Outside Moscow
Private Sector
Government
Social
Employed/Student
Unemployed
Male
Female

88.0
10.9
1.1
66.4
25.3
8.2
74.0
26.0
65.1
34.9

74.0
23.0
3.0
67.7
28.8
3.4
65.6
34.4
57.5
42.5

Network Participation of AntiGovernment Protest Stalwarts and


Casuals
Variable

Politicized Internet
Networks

Personal Protest
Networks

Category

Stalwarts

Casuals

Yes

57.1

45.7

>5

60.2

64.7

15

31.1

22.0

Goals of Anti-Government Protest


Stalwarts and Casuals
Goal

Response

Stalwarts

Casuals

Protest Goals
To End Falsification

Pass New Laws


Governing Parties
and Elections
Russia Without
Putin

Fully Agree
Fully Disgree

56.3
0

40.2
9.9

Fully Agree

65.5

49.5

Fully Disagree

.5

7.8

Fully Agree
Fully Disagree

68.5
4.6

46.2
13.5

Motivations for Protest


Defend my Interest
Pressure on
Politicians
for Reform
Convey Concern to
Society
Show My
Involvement
with Events
It Is My Moral Duty
Be a Direct Observer
of Important Events

Fully Agree
Fully Disagree
Fully Agree

64.0
2.5
62.1

47.0
3.2
47.0

Fully Disagree

.5

4.6

Fully Agree
Fully Disagree
Fully Agree

55.1
2.0
57.6

36.3
2.5
57.6

Fully Disagree

3.0

3.9

Fully Agree
Fully Disagree
Fully Agree

63.1
1.0
36.4

35.7
6.8
24.9

Fully Disagree

7.9

5.0

Exploring the Impact of Cascade in the Pro-Government Rallies

Timing of Participation

Constancy of
Participation

Early Mobilizer

Late Mobilizer

Stalwart

36

22

Casual

39

247

new participants joining in fairly equal measures over the course of


events

Exploring the Impact of Cascade in the Anti-Government Rallies

Timing of Participation

Constancy of
Participation

Early Mobilizer

Late Mobilizer

Stalwart

185

19

Casual

139

103

clear cascade evident in between the first and second events and
then the number of new participants declines dramatically

:
full-time


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