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!, β, k) =
l∼k j
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?@7AB
G
!
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exp β ICg (yl ) Nk
g=1 l∼k j

#$=1 Nk *&))*1/1'%& -& #,01'/,$'1 #1, k =,+,', ),C )*$//,0, +$'/,#1*&%,9

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P(Yn+1 = Cj |"n+1 , , !) =
K Z βmax
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X
?@78B
k=1 0

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fˆ ( |!, β, k) = !, β, k),
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g=1 yi =Cg

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π̂ (β, k| , !) ∝ fˆ ( |", β, k) π (β, k) 0 .+ /708-(<-27,)21862(50 /0) .0 /)09272(52

P̂(yn+1 = Cj |"n+1 , , !) =
K Z βmax
P(yn+1 = Cj |"n+1 , , !, β, k)π̂ (β, k| , !) dβ. "#$#&
X

k=1 0

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85+
#+//)(772*+62(50 DEDE= 1+7+,+ 78 85+ 4+,05+ -2 D+)H(9 (β , k , , . . . ,(k)

β (M ) , k (M ) ) = 4(5 -27,)21862(50 7,+62(5+)2+ π̂ (β, k|y, x)= -+ 482 72*8.+)0 85

0.09+,( 58*0)( -2 9(.,0$

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k +992050 8,2.266+5-( -27,)21862(52 /)(/(7,+ 4(5 /+770@@2+,+ 4+78+.0$ M+.
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-0. /+)+*0,)( θ= 25 482 β = 2590),05-( .+ )0.+62(50= +778*0 85+ 7,)8,,8)+ -0.
,2/(
#
.#
β (t) = βmax exp θ(t) exp θ(t) + 1 , "#$N&
#

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