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.. , .. , ..
2007
621.396.6.007.63(075)
84473-1
875
:
, ,
25 ()
..
, ,
..
875
, ..
: / .. , .. , .. . :
- . . . -, 2007. 84 . 100 . ISBN 978-5-8265-0664-6.
, ,
.
6 , .. .
, 210200
210300 .
621.396.6.007.63(075)
84473-1
ISBN 978-5-8265-0664-6
(), 2007
,
,
..
..
18.12.10.07
60 84/16. 4,88 . . . 100 . 816
-
392000, , , 106, . 14
, - , (). , .
, ,
,
. , , . , ()
. .
, , .
1.
1.1.
.
. ,
, . , (. 1.1).
, :
=
i mi ;
mi
Y =
yi mi ;
mi
Z =
zi mi ,
mi
xi, yi, zi , ; mi .
. 1.1.
2. (. 1.2). , XY .
() , .
=
i xi ;
cxi
Y =
yi yi ;
c yi
Z =
zi zi ,
c zi
xi , yi , zi ; xi xi , yi yi , zi z i
xi, yi, zii ;
. 1.2.
3. :
pi = G ;
pi xi = 0; pi yi = 0; pi zi = 0;
pi xi yi = 0; pi xi zi = 0; pi xi zi = 0,
pi , i- ; G .
( Z = 0), :
pi = G; pi xi = 0; pi yi = 0.
4. , 4
1
1
1 1 G
1
2
3
4 2 0
1
.
=
y1
2
3
4 3 0
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 0
5. (, MathCAD) ,
: p1; p2; p3; p4.
6. .
, , , . .
7.
z1 = p1c z1 ; z2 = p 2 c z2 ; z3 = p3c z3 ; z4 = p 4 c z4 .
zi zi min :
= zi zi min ,
, , .
1.2.
, .. . () , :
;
;
.
, , , .
. 1.3. :
; Z;
1. (
1.1). , .
2. , .
(. 1.3, ) 6 , 6 , .
1- :
c x x + c x y c x y z = 0;
(1)
c y y + c y z x c y x z = 0;
(2)
c z z + c z y z c z x y = 0;
(3)
m&x& +
m&y& +
m&z& +
&& x J xy
&& y J xz
&& z
J x
c y zy + c z yz +
+
(c z y 2 + c y z 2 ) x c z xy y c y xz z = 0;
c x zx c z xz +
+ (c z z 2 ) y c z xy x c x yz z = 0;
&& x + J yz
&& y + J z
&& z c x yx c y xy +
J xz
2
2
+ (c z y + c y x ) z c y xz x c x yz y = 0,
(6)
(4)
&& x + J y
&& y J yz
&& z +
J xy
(5)
(1) (6), , 2
A12 + B10 + C8 + D6 + E4 + F2 + G = 0.
, , , , X Y ,
2.
2 4 :
c z z = 0;
(7)
(c x y 2 + c y x 2 ) z = 0;
m&x& + c x x + c x z y = 0;
&& y + c x zx + (c x z 2 + c z x 2 ) y = 0;
J y
m&y& + c y y c y z x = 0;
&& x c y zy + (c y y 2 + c y z 2 ) x = 0.
J x
(8)
m&z& +
&& z +
J z
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(7) (8) Z
:
z ;
1 =
2 =
( y 2 + c y x 2 ) .
Jz
(9) (10) 3 4, :
34, 4 132,4 + b1 = 0,
1 =
( z 2 + c z x 2 ) + c x ;
Jy
b1 =
( c x ) ( z 2 + c z x 2 ) ( c x z )2 .
mJy
(11) (12) 5 6, :
54,6 2 52,6 + b2 = 0,
2 =
( z y 2 + c y z 2 ) + c y ;
Jx
2
(
c y ) ( z y 2 + c y z 2 ) + ( c y z )
.
b2 =
m Jx
3- , .. , , 6 :
1 =
x ;
m
2 =
y ;
m
3 =
4 =
( z y 2 + c y z 2 ) ;
5 =
( z 2 + c z x 2 ) ;
6 =
( y 2 + c y x 2 ) .
z ;
m
Jx
Jy
Jz
, .
, , .
600 , , 10 , .
1.3.
. (, ). ,
(. 1.4).
, , ..
P = f (z).
(. 1.1) .
. ,
.
. 1.4. :
1 ; 2 ; 3
1.1
, /3
, /2
0,030,07
0,81,0
0,10
0,35
20
0,08
0,127
0,12
0,3
23
0,180,2
20
0,30,4
1,87
30
0,30,4
2,68
140
0,30,4
()
708
0,09
m ;
S ;
K , .
1. , , /2
=
mg
(1 + K ),
S
(1)
K = &z& / g , .
2. ,
U = mg (H + z).
3. ,
U = VTv = ShTv,
V ; Tv , .
4.
h=
mg ( H + z )
.
STv
/Tv = (1),
h=
H+z
.
1+ K
5.
h=
H
.
K
, , .
,
, (. 1.5).
. 1.5. = f() :
1 ( = 0,033 /3); 2 ( = 0,127 /3)
1.4.
. , , , .. , , . , ,
., .. 2 .
a, b, h ; a , ;
m , ;
E , /2;
, /3;
n ;
, .
1.
amax = ng,
g .
2.
v0 = amax
= v02 / 2 g .
3. f01 ( ), ,
f 01 =
Ch
a
K K 10 5 ,
K = c c / E , E, Ec ; K = 1 /(1 + m / m ) , m, m
.
, (/b 1)
D
C= 1
,
2 m + m
Eh 3
; ( = 0,3); 1 12 (1 2 )
, .
1 . 1.2.
D =
1.2
1 = 22,37 1 + 0,61 2 + 4
4.
K = (2f01)2m.
5.
Z = (m + m) g/K.
6.
2
Z max = Z
+ (V0 / 2f 01 ) 2 .
7.
Z = Z + Zmax.
8.
P = K Z.
9.
n = n1n2n3,
n1 ; n2 ; n3 .
:
n1
=
1,251,5;
n2 = 1,01,5; n3 = 1,23,0. ( ).
10.
= /n,
.
11. ,
= /4.
12.
J = bh3/12.
13.
W = J/(0,5h).
14. ,
= /W.
15. ( ). ,
. > ( ,
, .).
,
f =
2i
2l
EJ
,
F
i , : i = i (
), i =(2i 1) /2 ( ), i = (2i + 1) /2 (
); i .
mi, m
m = m0 +
1 n
xi mi ,
l i =1
l ; xi ( ) mi.
1.5.
, ,
. .
, . .
1. , ,
h (. 1.6).
2. (. 1.7).
(. 1.8).
. 1.6.
. 1.7.
( )
. 1.8. ,
m , ;
L , ;
l , ;
h , ;
d , ;
E , /2;
G , /2;
n .
1. , X, Y Z:
X
1
48 EJ
fx =
m(l ) 3 1
8
(
2
)
k
+
0, 5
1 2 (2l ) 3
(2l ) 4 GJ
h3
f =
+
2 m 24 EJ 3EJ 32 EJ (2hEJ + 2lGJ )
0,6
1
24 EJ
fz =
3
2 3
mh 1 +
6k + 1
0,5
J = d4/64 ; G , k = h/2l.
2.
fi
0 ( 0 = 0,020,025),
20.
3.
=
4.
P = mgn.
, x,
Py z .
5. (. 1.8):
X
hPx
;
2 (1 + 6k )
M A = M D = (1 + 3k )
M = M = 1,5kh
P
;
1 + 6k
Y
MA = MD =
Ph
;
2
Z
M B = MC =
Pl
.
2 (2 + k )
6. :
= D =
M Ad
M d
; = = .
2J
2J
7. (. 1.9).
8. .
t =
N
.
fi
. 1.9.
;
a, b, h , ;
E , /2;
;
z0 , .
, (. 1.10) X.
1.
f1 =
Eh 2
2a 2
12 (1 2 )
, ; ; b ; ; .
2.
1
=
.
f1
. 1.10.
. 1.11. K1 K2
, x = y = 0,5.
.
= x/l
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
K1(x)
0,394
0,749
1,03
1,211
1,273
1,211
4.
= W0
x
cos
.
a
a
5.
f = 1 ( x) 2 ( x) =
z
K1 ( x1 , 1 ) K1 ( x 2 , 1 ) ,
y
z
K1 ( x1 ) K1 ( 1 ) K1 ( x 2 ) K1 ( 1 ) .
y
6. , (. 1.12) :
3EJ f
(3 + 4k ) EJ
+
= Af + M A =
;
(1 + k )hl
(1 + k )h
= f + M =
C = Cf + M C =
3EJ f
(1 + k )hl
3(1 + 2k ) EJ f
(1 + k )h
2 EJ
(1 + k )l
+
EJ
(1 + k )l
. 1.12.
7. (, )
Md
i = i .
2J
8. , (. 1.9).
tp = Np/f1.
2.
2.1.
, 600
. , ,
. : ,
, , .
.
, 3 , .
P , ;
L1, L2, L3 (D, H) ( ), ;
l1, l2, l3 , ;
tc , C.
1. . , ,
.
, : ,
(h) , (h1 h2).
. 2.1. :
;
h1, 2 =
Ki
i =1
l1l2
Ki i- ; l1, l2 ; n .
l3 = h + h1 + h2.
2. (S), (S) (S)
S = 2L3(L1 + L2), S = S = L1L2.
1 , 2 , 4 .
3. , 1, 2 4
S1 = S2 = l1l2, S4 = 2l3 (l1 + l2).
4. 1 2
1
1 1
S
= + 1 ,
S
, .
4
4 = ,
, , 4,
.
.
5.
I
I
t
= 2t2I t
,
L4 ( , L4 ).
6. (t). , 100200
300400 , 1015 . t = tc + t.
tm = (t + tc)/2.
7. , , 1/4 ,
= 0,54 (gPr )1m/ 4
1/ 4
m ti t c
1m/ 2 L
N,
; a
, 2/; a , 2/c; , /( ); ti
i- ; L , : ,
; N :
N = 1, , , N = 0,7 N = 1,3.
, K1; g , /c2; Pr =
1/ 4
t t
= A1 i c
L
N,
1 (. )
tm, C
10
20
30
40
60
80
100
A1
1,4
1,38
1,36
1,34
1,31
1,29
1,27
,
, , .
8.
= 12f (t1t2);
4
t1 + 273 t 2 + 273
100 100
,
f (t1 , t 2 ) = 5,67
t1 t 2
t1 ; t2 ; 12 ( 12 = 1).
9.
= + , = + , = + .
10.
= s + s + s.
11.
t I = t c + (t t c )1 +
12. , t ()
PI = (t t),
.
.
13. 1, , -
tI t
h
k i = Nf i A2 4
hi
l
ki - ; hi ; l = l1l2 ; l = l3l 2 l = l3l1 .
3 ,
k = /h.
, , ,
(). 2 .
Tm, C
50
100
200
0,63
0,58
0,56
0,44
f(hi/l) (. 2.2).
. 2.2. -
14. 1, 2 4
,
, , , .
1; 2; k4.
15. ,
K1 = k1 + 1; K4 = k4 + 4; K2 = 2/h + 2.
, ,
K1 = k1 + 1; K2 = k2 + 2; K4 = (k1 + k2)/2 + 4.
16.
1
1
,
+
t II = t c + P
P , ; ,
;
.
17. , . 10 %,
I
II
t III
p = (t + t ) / 2.
. 2.3.
2.2.
. , .
, , . .
. , .
.
)
)
. 2.4. :
;
, , .
P , ;
L1, L2, L3 , ;
s1, s2, s 1, 2 ; 2;
t .
1. , , .. .
(. 2.5).
2. t .
(t) = 0,75 (t),
. 2.5 , .
3. I ( I
(5 1), /2 ).
. 2.5.
4.
P = f(t, t) (t t) S,
(
0,75, = . ); = 1 ; S ( ).
5. t1I ()
Ph
,
M A = MD =
2
S
a = 2 (S 1 + S 1 ) 1 (S 2 + S 2 S 1 S 1 ) ; S1, S2, S1, S2 S2
;
S
S
b = 2 + 1 A1 + A2 D (S 2 + S 2 S 1 S 1 ) + S 1 S 1 2 t c ;
S 2
S 2
P P
t
;
1
S 2 S 2
= DA1 + [A (S 2 + S 2 ) D ] t c .
, , t1I t 2I , ..
() , ().
6.
t 2I = D
S 1t1
.
S 2
7.
I
t
= 2t1I tc .
8. ( 2)
I
I
t
= 2t2I t
.
9.
G I = s11Tc c 2 g
h1 + h2 h1 h2
Tc
T1 T2
s
Tc + 1 1
s2 2
s
T2 + 1 1
T1
s1, s2, s 1, 2 ( ); h1 h2 1 2 ; 1, 2,
( , = 0,65).
(. 2.1); 1, 2, .
10. (. 2.6) II.
, , 20
G0 = VK,
V ; K (K = V/V); 20 .
2.1
, .
b/l
1:4
1:3
1:2
15
0,30
0,27
0,23
30
0,45
0,43
0,39
45
0,56
0,54
0,50
60
0,62
0,60
0,56
90
0,65
0,64
0,62
. 2.6.
11. II ,
(t), (t), ( . 4) ( . 2.5 t)
.
II
GII.
12. t1II , t 2II , t
GII/G0 (. 2.6) III.
13. , ,
II*
t II* =
II
1 2 G
II
II
.
(
)
(
)
t
t
S
S
t
S
t
+
+
1
1
1
1
1
c
S 1 II
15. t tII 5 %,
t III .
III
t1 , t 2 , t
III
G .
III
17. (. 2.6) . , ,
18.
t III* =
1
S 1
2G IIIC
III
III
.
t
t
S
S
t
S
t
(
)
+
+
1
2
1
1
1
1
III
19. t () :
t t III
t t III*
t t III
t lII*
t lIII*
; P = P III +
t t III
t II
t III
(P
II
P III .
t . 2.4.
t = f(P) ( t). , ,
. , , () .
2.3.
, ,
, (. 2.7).
,
.
, . , . 3 .
.
, , ;
N ;
n ;
Ly Lz Y Z;
h ;
ly ;
l lz ().
. 2.7. :
1 ; 2
1. G.
2. x
S = L y L z h l N
2 N
lyi lzi n yi .
i =1
3.
R =
Gl
.
S x
l' ; .
4. i-
= 0,8
R .
5. , , x
m
P i
i =1
1000G
i i- , x; ; G
.
6.
= +
P
,
S
S , .
t = t0 + ,
t0 .
7.
=
.
1000G
. , .
2.4.
t.max ;
R ;
;
tc ;
R ( R 0,11,0 /).
1.
I
I
t
= 2t2I t
,
R () . max .
2.
R =
(t.max tc ) P (R + R )
qP
q , (q 0,9).
3. (. 2.8)
t tc = PpacR.
4. t (. 2.9) Lmin.
5. : l ; b ; h ; d . : 90 90 ; = 3; d = 5
; h = 20 ; b = 12 ( ) b = 6 ( ).
6.
b=
Lmin n
,
n 1
n .
. 2.8.
. 2.9. Rc
tc = 50 C; = 0,9; = 0,2 ; h = 30
b , (
= 810 , 2,5 ).
> ,
h2
h ; ; . l , l 0,9Lmin:
l = n (b + ) b.
, /3
, /( )
8960
370
2660
160
1760
170
7840
55
7840
14
..
0,060,07
0,200,30
() ..
0,800,85
0,800,88
7.
Bi = 0,5/,
Bi < 1 ( ), Bi >1 ( ), Bi = 1 ( ).
8. :
S1 ;
S2 , ;
S3 ;
S4 ;
S5 .
S5 = lL.
. 2.10.
S= S1+ S2+ S3+ S4 = (n 1) (bLmin) + 2hl(n 1) +
+ 2(h +d)Lmin + n[2h +Lmin].
9.
= . + .; = . + .; = ij f (t, t).
S1 S2 (. 2.10)
t t
B = c
Lmin
t = 0,5 (t + tc).
(t) (. 2.11).
(t) . 2.12.
. 2.11. = f(T)
. 2.12.
10. , , ,
P = S(t tc).
11. , C/,
1
II
R
=
.
S
12. ,
P0 = Pi = S i [ i (ti tic ) + i (ti t c )] ,
i , i- ; tic .
S3; S4 S5 tc.
S1 S2 ( )
tic = t (t tc) H,
H ; t .
,
= f(),
1/4
1/4
= 4(t)bC, t = 0,5 (t + tc), C = (t tc) /(L) (. 2.13 2.14). tci = tc S3, S4, S5. tci = tic S1 S2 (
).
. 2.13. 4 = f (T)
, C/
I
=
R
t tc
.
P
R
=
I
II
R
R
I
II
R
+ R
, ,
.= + .
. .
. 2.14. H = f()
, . S5
. , . .
(
).
3.
3.1.
. , ( 5)
, .
. ( 5)
, .
, , :
Z
Z
A = 8,6 ln [ch(K t )] + ln 1 + 0,5 + th (K t ) ,
Z Z
K , K =
j a ; Z :
Z =
1
, ( ), Z = j a r , ( );
ja r
Z =
j a
=
K
j a
;
(/);
a = 0 ;
;
0=4 107 / ;
(1/);
= 0 , 0 = 107/(4c2);
c (c = 2,997925 /), 0 = 8,85416 (/);
r, t , .
( 104 ) , :
A = 8,6 ln 1 +
1
Z t ;
2
A = 8,6 ln 1 +
Z
2Z
K t = 8,6 ln 1 +
t
;
2r
( l >5) , :
A = 8,6 ln 1 +
1
Z 0 t .
2
104 (A).
3
H
t
S=
= 0,22 0 1 1 ,
H
r0
; ; 0
; t ; r0 , .
4.
4.1.
-
- , . , , , .
( ) -
,
.
m r
n r
N = Ni N j .
i =1
(4.1)
j =1
( )
N = N i
i =1
( )
Nj
j =1
(4.2)
() , (4.2) () () :
( )
( )
(4.3)
( )
(4.4)
j =1
( )
j =1
() () ,
, :
( ) = N max N = ( )i ( )j ;
(4.5)
( ) = N min N = ( )i ( )j .
(4.6)
i =1
j =1
i =1
j =1
:
m
N = N max N min =
Ni
i =1
m+n
j =1
i =1
n
+
Nj
j =1
max
max
(N i )min +
m
i =1
(N j )min = N i ,
Ni .
(4.7) ,
.
-
=
m+ n
i .
(4.8)
, , , :
=
=
;
2
2
(4.9)
+
.
2
(4.10)
(4.9) (4.10) ,
, .
.
1. (4.9) (4.10) i i .
2. (4.8)
=
m+ n
i .
(4.11)
i =1
4.
= 2 .
5. :
( ) = + , ( ) = .
6.
N max = N + ( ) , N min = N + ( ) .
(4.12)
,
.
( ) .
7. N Nmax Nmin , (4.7) .
8. (4.5), (4.6): ( ) ( ) .
9. (4.12).
(4.8).
10.
( )i ( )i .
11. (4.9) (4.10).
12. i (4.12)
, . i
. .
- . , , ,
, . , , .
4.2.
5.
.
. 3 ( ),
99,7 % 0,3 % 3. , 3,
. 2, 95,6 % .
n
( x xi ) 2
1
n 1
x i ; n .
: , , , , .
. .
1. (3, 2 ). .
2. , 3, X1 = 31, X2 = 32, , Xn = 3n.
3.
2
= 1 + 2 + ... + n .
3
3
3
4. x = 3.
, , .
1.
X = X1 + X2 + ... + Xn.
2. .
3.
K i
=
3
12 + 3 22 + ...3 n2
Ki = 1; 2 3.
(3, 2 ),
=
3
12
22
.
+ ...
n2
4.
1 = 3 12 , , n = 3 n2 .
,
4.
5.
5.1.
, .
. , ,
.
, , .
, ,
( ).
(. 5.1).
5.1.
:
(, , )
(, , , )
, ,
(, , ); ; -
, :
, , ..
, .
:
(, ,
)
:
5.2.
(, , )
. , . .
() : 1) ; 2) ; 3) .
:
, ; .
, , , .
, - . ,
( 2.11671). . , .
, ,
. . , . .
.
( ). , ( , , , .),
i = i ; i = 1, ..., n; j = 1, ..., n1 ,
Pj
i , i- ; i i-ro ; Pj
j- .
( , ..),
, .
( )
n
mi i
i 1
n1
m j Pj
j 1
, .
, . : 1)
; 2) ; 3) ;
4)
n
i =1
i =1
mi ; m j = 1.
, , - , .
( 2.11671). () .
5.2 . . 19 % .
,
i
, qi
,
mi
qi .mi
,
Di
5.2.
( )
560
500
1,12
0,3
0,336
55
50
0,91
0,2
0,182
4500
4500
0,1
0,1
12
10
1,2
0,1
1,2
27
27
0,1
0,1
370190245,5
400175275
1,15
0,2
0,23
Di
qi
mi
Qi
13
12
0.89
0,89
Di
qi
mi
Qi
0,997
0,95
1,05
1,05
Di
qi
mi
Qi
0,7
0,3
0,21
0,7
0,3
0,21
0,4
0,4
Di
qi
mi
Qi
0,5
0,5
1,3
0,2
0,26
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
, .
Di
qi
mi
Qi
1000
900
0,9
0,9
Di
qi
mi
Qi
, K
0,86
0,9
0,95
0,3
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, K
0,75
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,
, . , , .
.
(
) () .
, , , .
,
.
, ,
, - (). , . ,
, - , (,
..).
, , , . ,
- .
, , .
, , .
, (, ) .
( ), ,
. :
1) , , - ;
2) . ;
3) () , , ,
, ..
. () . () ,
, .
. ,
, .
,
. , ( )
. .
.
, , . ,
() , . ,
().
. 6.1.
. 6.1.
, .. (, ) , ,
. .
, a priori.
.
, , ,
, . . , - .
() , .. , , , , .
6.2.
.
, . 6.1.
6.1
()
, [0; t ]
P (t ) = N (t ) / N
m t =
, t ,
1
N
Ti
i =1
N (t ) N (t + t )
(t ) =
N (t ) t
Q(t ) ( ) F (t ) , ..
P [A] .
[t1 ; t 2 ]
t2
P(t2 )
P(t1 , t2 ) =
= exp (t ) dt .
P(t1 )
t
P(t ), (t ) .
(t ) , . 6.2.
1
=
(t ) dt ,
tp 0
t , .
6.2
(t )
(t )
Q(t )
(t )
1 Q(t )
f (t )
(t )
f (x ) d (x )
exp (x ) dx
0
f (x ) d (x )
1 exp (x ) dx
0
(t ) exp (x ) dx
0
Q(t )
Q(t )
1 P(t )
f (t )
(t )
m(t )
d
P(t )
dt
d
Q(t )
dt
f (t )
d
P(t ) / P(t )
dt
d
Q(t ) / (1 Q(t ))
dt
f (t ) / f (x ) d (x )
P(t ) d (t )
(t )
(1 Q(t )) dt
tf (t ) dt
exp (x ) dx dt
0
, 1/
III
II
t,
. 6.2. (t)
, . :
[0, t ]
P (t ) = P[ t ] = F (t ) ;
m = M [] = t f (t ) dt ,
F (t ), f (t ) .
, .
K (t ) , t
.
K K (t ) , .. K ,
, ,
K = lim K (t ) =
t
mt
.
mt + m
(6.1)
K (t ) , ,
K (t ) =
Ki (t ) ,
i =1
K i (t ) i- .
K (t ) K K (t ) K (. . 6.3, ):
K (t ) = 1 K (t ), K = 1 K .
R(t , t + ) , t , , , , t (i ) , R(t , t + )
R (t , t + ) = N (t , t + ) / N ,
N (t , t + ) , t
t +.
R( ) , ,
R( ) = lim R(t , t + ) R( ) = K P( ) ,
t
.
K (t ), K (t ), R( ) K , K . 6.3.
(6.2)
K (t )
K (t )
R( )
, , ,
, , , ..
K =
t
t + t + t
t ; t ; t
.
6.3.
, : (), (), - .
6.3.1.
:
e t , t 0;
f (t ) =
0,
t < 0;
(6.3)
P(t ) = f (t ) dt = e t ; Q(t ) =1 e t ;
(6.4)
(t ) =
f (t )
= ;
P (t )
(t ) = ;
(6.5)
1
1 ~
mt = P(t )dt = ; m
.
t =
P(t )
f (t )
(t )
(t )
f (t )
P(t )
t
. 6.4. (t), f(t), (t)
() , ..
(6.6)
e t , t 0;
f (t ) =
0, t < 0,
P (t ) = 1 e t , m =1 / .
(6.7)
(6.8)
, .. , , , .
, P (t ) t
t , , , .
K =
.
+
6.3.2.
( ) , (t ) const . () mt ( ) t ( ) (. 6.5).
P(t )
f (t )
(t )
P(t )
(t )
0,4
t
f (t )
t
mt
f (t ) =
(t mt )2
exp
,
2t2
2
t2 ; mt .
P(t )
P(t ) =
t
t mt
t
(t mt )2
t mt
dt = 0,5
exp
2
2
2
t
t
(u ) =
1
2
x2
dx .
2
exp
0
(u ) , ( u ) = (u ) .
(t )
(t ) =
f (t )
=
P(t )
(t mt )2
exp
2 t2
t mt
2 0,5
t
6.4.
: , , , , .
, . 6.6.
(). :
1) , (
, ..);
2) ( );
3) ( );
4) ( , , , .);
5) ( , , ).
. 6.3.
6.5.
(. 6.7).
6.6.
:
1. . , , .
( , .)
6.3
.
.
.
,
.
,
().
( )
(, , )
(,
)
(
)
(, ,
)
. 6.6.
(, ,
, )
(,
(,
. 6.7.
:
( );
, ;
, .
, -, , , , .
2. . , . , , , ,
, , ,
.
.
: , ,
; ,
.
6.7.
.
1. . . .
2. .
, , . , .
.
. 6.8.
( )
: P, q,
( )
( )
Q
. 6.8.
, .
, . , ( , ,
).
6.8.
(),
, . .
. 6.9.
1. . , , .. (. 6.9).
() Ps (t ) [0, t ]
Ps (t ) =
pi (t ) ,
(6.9)
i =1
pi (t ) i- ; N .
(t ) i (t ) , ..
(t ) =
i (t ) .
(6.10)
i =1
f (t )
f (t ) = P(t )
f (t )
Pii (t ) ,
(6.11)
i =1
fi (t ) i- .
mt
1
1
mt = i , i =
i =1
i (t ) dt ,
(6.12)
t .
, .. , (6.9) (6.12)
Ps (t ) = e t ,
P(t0 , t0 + ) = e t ;
n
i ;
(6.13)
i =1
1
.
2. . , . . () . 6.10.
f (t ) = e t , mt =
Ps (t ) = 1
(1 pi (t )) ,
(6.14)
i =1
, .. p1 (t ) = ... = p N (t ) = p(t ) ,
Ps (t ) = 1 (1 pi (t ))N .
( , , )
Ps (t ) = p1 (t ) + p 2 (t ) p1 (t ), p 2 (t ) .
(. 6.10, ) p(t ) = e t ( ) N 1
R1
I
R2
RN
)
. 6.10.
(t )2 + ... + (t )N 1 e t .
Ps (t ) = 1 + t +
2!
(N 1)!
(6.15)
, , , .
( )
, , . 6.11, , .
Ps (t ) = p R1 (t ) p R 2 (t ) + p R 3 (t ) p R1 (t ) p R 2 (t ) p R 3 (t ) .
, . . 6.12, , .
Ps (t ) = ( pC1 (t ) + pC 2 (t ) pC1 (t ) pC 2 (t )) pC 3 (t ) .
. 6.11.
. 6.12.
)
. 6.13. :
; ;
,
.
P(t )
P (t ) . , . (. 6.13).
. 6.13,
Po (t ) = (1 p o1 (t )) (1 p o2 (t )) = p o1 (t ) + p o2 (t ) p o1 (t ) p o2 (t ).
. 6.13, P (t ) = p1 (t ) p2 (t ) .
, P (t )
PS (t ) = Po (t )P (t ) = ( po1 (t ) + po2 (t ) po1 (t ) po2 (t )) p1 (t ) p2 (t ) .
,
. . 6.14.
.
2
II
O
O
. 6.14.
( )
P(S ) =
P(H i ) P(S
Hi ) ,
(6.16)
i =1
N ; P(H i ) H i ; P(S H i ) S ( I O ) H i .
(. 6.14)
, 5, :
H1 5 ;
H 2 5 .
H1 P(H1 ) = P(5) , H 2
P(H1 ) = 1 P(5) .
P(S ) = P(5)P(S H1 ) + (1 P(5)) P(S H 2 ) .
P(S H1 ) 1, . 6.15 ( 5 ).
. 6.15. 1
. 6.16. 2
P(S H 2 ) 2, . 6.16 ( 5 ),
P(S H 2 ) = P(1) P(4 ) + P(2 ) P(3) P(1) P(4 ) P(2 ) P(3) .
, (. 6.11)
P(S ) = P(S ) (P(1) + P (2) P(1) P(2 )) (P (3) + P(4) P(3) P(4 )) +
+ (1 P (S )) (P(1) P(4 ) + P(2 )P(3) P (1) P (4) P (2)P (3)).
6.9.
:
;
;
;
.
. 6.17.
,
,
. 6.17.
, .
.
1. , .. / .. , .. , ..
. Academia, 2007. 368 .
2. , .. : / ..
, .. -. . : . . , 1984.
3. , .. / .. . . :
, 1982.
4. , .. : . / ..
, .. , .. ; . .. . . : , 1984.
5. , .. / .. , .. . . : , 1968.
6. , .. / .. ,
.. . . : , 1976.
7. , .. / .. . . : , 1972.
8. ; . .. / . ., 1996.
1. .
1.1. .
1.2. ..
1.3. .
1.4. .
1.5. ..
3
3
3
6
10
13
16
2. .
2.1. .
2.2. .
2.3.
..
2.4.
23
23
29
3. .
3.1.
4. ..
44
44
45
4.1.
-
4.2.
35
37
45
49
5. .
5.1. .
5.2. ..
51
51
52
6. .
6.1.
6.2.
6.3. ..
6.4.
6.5. ..
6.6. .
6.7. ..
6.8.
.
6.9. .
56
56
59
64
67
67
67
71
80
72
78