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News111114 02 PDF
News111114 02 PDF
11 2014 .
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Key indicators (y/y)
- , $
2012
% 2011
400
350
GDP
300
Ind.
4.3%
4.7%
8.3%
7.2%
6.1%
32.2
5.7%
0.7%
output
Investments
250
Retail
200
trade
CPI
150
$/RUB, YE
100
Current acc-t*
50
Fiscal bal-ce*
70%
2013E
2014E
2.8%
2.6%
65% 2.5%
2.8%
3.5%
3.5%
4.5%
60% 4.0%
6.8%
6.8%
32.0
33.5
55%
3.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
3.4%
2.6%
6.6%
5.9%
6.6%
30.4
4.1%
0.0%
50%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2005
2006
10%
8%
7.5%
, % /
, % /
8%
7.0%
6%
6%
6.5%
4%
6.0%
2%
5.5%
4%
2%
0%
5.0%
A-12
A-12
D-12
2013
4.5%
Industrial output, y /y
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2012
-2%
2011
0%
Bank assets,
% of
GDP: top 100 banks vs.
:
,
-
remaining banks
90%
12%
% GDP
TOP ,
100 Other
.
%
%
80%
10%
8%
14%
11%
60%
50%
4%
2%
30%
11%
20%
10%
13%
12%
40%
11%
40%
6%
60%
% .
70%
10%
8%
11%
9% 35% 41%
8%
24%
49%
8%
20%
0%
10%
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0%
0%
Source:
Interfax,
CBR,
Alfa
Research
2006 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012 2013
:
,
-
Illicit capital
outflows
(CBR estimates)
45
$10/.
Illicit capital outf low, $ bn
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
: -
research@alfabank.ru
() , . , - ()
, .
. - () , , ,
, , ()
.
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
$30/.
. $115/.
$85/.
.
: 1) , 2) ; 3)
.
,
.
.
20%. 10
1% /,
1-3% .
;
.
$10/.
1,5-2,0 ./$ 2/3
, $10/.
$30
$10-15 ,
1,5-2,0 ./$.
- .
, ,
.
0,4-0,8%
, $10/.
0,4-0,5% .
-
.
, 2008-2009 ., 0,8%
$10/. ,
.
$10 . 50%
; $10/.
$20 100 .
. -
1,5-2,0 ./$ ,
, 300-400 .
$10/.
$10 .
. ,
,
.
, , $98/. 2013 . $80/.
.
$114/. 2013 . $100/.
.
. -
2015 . $100/.,
1%, $110 ,
.
,
.
$100/. 40-45 ./$
$30
.
20%;
10
1%;
. 20%.
10
1% /, 1-3%
. ,
;
.
$10/.
$30
1,52,0 ./$
.
,
.
$10/.
$30 , 1,5-2,0 ./$.
:
1 ./$ $10 .
. 1.
, % /
, % /
, % /
8%
. 2. ,
$ %
- , $
%
400
70%
6%
4%
300
65%
200
60%
100
55%
50%
2%
0%
-2%
: , -
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-6%
2005
-4%
: , -
,
, .
,
,
, . ,
,
, -, 1,5-2,0
./$ $10/., , -, . ,
,
.
. 3. :
$/.
2001 . . 2008 .
20/. $140/. 30 ./$ 23 ./$
. 2008 . . 2009 . $140/. $40/.
23 ./$ 36 ./$
. 2009 . 2011 .
$40/. $120/. 36 ./$ 27 ./$
2012 . . 2021
$125/. $95/.
29 ./$ 33 ./$
. 2012 . 2013 . $95/. $120/. 33 ./$ 30 ./$
. 2014 . 2014*
$115/. $90/.
34 ./$ 40 ./$
$10/.
$10/.
0,6 ./$
1,3 ./$
1,1 ./$
1,3 ./$
1,2 ./$
2,0 ./$
$540
$200
$150
$10
$20
45
20
19
3
8
0
,
$10/.
0,4-0,5%
,
.
-
$10/.
0,4% .
. ,
$10/. $40-50
, 70%
. , $10/.
$15 , 0,5% .
$10/.
0,8%
,
. , ,
. ,
$33/. 2009 . 2,4 . . (
7,8%) 0,8% $10/.
. , ,
,
,
, ( 40%
2009 .) ,
( 25%
2009 .).
.
, , .
,
.
:
, , , .
,
,
.
- 10%
;
$10/.
$20 ,
1,52,0/$
300400 .
,
.
50% 30% .
10% ,
$200 .
$10 . $20 ,
1% .
,
. ,
1,5-2,0 ./$ 300-400
., 0,4%
100 .
. 4.
$10/.
1,5-2,0 ./$
$10 . =
$30
$10-15
$6-7 . ,
0,4%
$20
$10
$3-4/. ,
: -
40
./$,
45 ./$
$115
$85 . , .
$30/.
6 . 34 .
40 . . , , 43-45
./$, .
,
.
,
. ,
. 150 .
. , ,
.
414
,
. -, 914
$110 .
414. ,
$85/.,
0,3% .
,
.
, , . -,
. ,
,
4,8-4,9% ,
, . ,
,
,
- .
.
1 .
, -
$20 ,
, 114
1
., 400 .
600 . , ,
. (. 6).
(
33% / 914),
1,5% 9M14, , , .
$/.
: Bloomberg, -
2014 .:
2015:
2014 .
,
40-45 .
$/.
+0,4
7,0
6,6
-
2014
50
-0,6
$/. (..)
Brent, $/
+0,6
40
$10/.
35
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
7,2
7,0
6,8
6,6
6,4
6,2
6,0
5,8
5,6
5,4
-
2013
30
45
. 6.
: 2013 2014 ., .
.14
.14
.14
.14
.14
.14
.14
.14
.14
.14
.14
.13
.13
. 5. $/. $/.
: , -
,
. ,
, $98/. 2013 . $80/. .
$114/. 2013 . $100/. .
,
$85/., 2014 . $100/.
$10 . , .
41 . ,
37 . .
32 ./$ 2013 .,
500 .
0,8%. , ,
,
.
,
$100 . 2015 .,
1%, $110
0,4% ($7 ).
.
(. . 8), ,
$100/. 2015 . ,
2014 . ,
, 40-45 ./$.
.
7.
2015 ., $
.
8.
2015 ., $
, $/.
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
: -
75
105
95
85
75
65
80
110
100
90
80
70
85
115
105
95
85
75
90
120
110
100
90
80
95
125
115
105
95
85
100
130
120
110
100
90
$/.
$/.
, $/.
70
100
90
80
70
60
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
70
-53
-57
-61
-65
-70
75
-42
-45
-49
-54
-58
80
-30
-34
-38
-42
-46
85
-22
-26
-30
-34
-39
90
-13
-17
-22
-26
-31
95
-6
-10
-14
-19
-24
100
2
-2
-7
-12
-17
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